Group 1: Domestic News - Xi Jinping emphasized the need to deepen the construction of a unified national market and promote high-quality development of the marine economy during the sixth meeting of the Central Financial Committee [2] - The Caixin China Manufacturing PMI for June rose to 50.4, indicating a return to the expansion zone, with new orders and production indices also showing improvement [2] Group 2: Bond Market Dynamics - The total scale of bond ETFs reached 383.98 billion yuan, with a net inflow of 175.78 billion yuan in the first half of the year, making it the most net inflow ETF category [3] - Chinese banks, particularly small and medium-sized ones, have been increasing bond investments, with the balance of bond investments for small and medium-sized banks rising to 46.41 trillion yuan, an increase of 3.6 trillion yuan since last year [3] Group 3: Policy Developments - New policy financial tools are being proposed to support technological innovation, expand consumption, and stabilize foreign trade, with a potential funding amount of 500 billion yuan [4] - The public REITs registration and settlement business guidelines have been officially implemented, aiming to optimize the business rules for public infrastructure securities investment funds [4] Group 4: International News - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell did not rule out the possibility of interest rate cuts in July, indicating that stable economic activity allows for further analysis of the impact of tariffs on prices and economic growth [5] - The US ISM Manufacturing PMI for June was reported at 49, indicating contraction for the fourth consecutive month, with significant declines in new orders and employment indices [6] Group 5: Commodity Market - International crude oil futures prices increased, with WTI crude oil for August rising by 0.52% to $65.45 per barrel, while natural gas prices continued to decline [7] Group 6: Financial Market Operations - The central bank conducted a 1.31 trillion yuan reverse repurchase operation at a rate of 1.40%, resulting in a net withdrawal of 275.5 billion yuan on that day [8][9] - Major repo rates fell significantly, with DR001 down 14.29 basis points to 1.367% and DR007 down 37.02 basis points to 1.546% [9] Group 7: Credit Market - The secondary market saw significant price deviations for certain industrial bonds, with "H1碧地03" dropping over 80% and "H1阳城01" increasing over 150% [11] - Several companies, including Evergrande and Zhengrong Real Estate, announced debt restructuring plans and financing updates amid ongoing financial challenges [12][13] Group 8: Convertible Bonds - The convertible bond market indices collectively rose, with the market transaction volume reaching 64.58 billion yuan, an increase of 6.32 billion yuan from the previous trading day [17] - Several convertible bonds are approaching early redemption conditions, indicating potential changes in investor sentiment [19]

分析师：王骅 登记编号：S0890522090001 分析师：宋逸菲 登记编号：S0890524080003 投资要点 权益市场回顾： 上周（2025.06.23-2025.06.27）上证指数上涨 1.91%，创业板指上涨 5.69%，恒生指数上涨 3.20%。银行板块在6月27日出现较大幅度回调，而科技股受海外映射及小米新品催化再度活跃。 权益市场观察： 银行调整背后：银行股回调主要受季末调表需求及获利回吐压力影响。年内银行板块涨幅显著，部分机构选择 季末止盈兑现收益。尽管市场此前关注保险资金在低利率环境下对稳定回报资产的配置需求，但银行低PB、高 股息特性对AMC等机构同样具备吸引力。 科技股再度活跃：科技产业指数在2月见到高点后，调整时间相对较长，上周科技板块相对活跃，除了"低位滞 涨"外，AI产业链催化频现。 军工热度提升：在近期"印巴"、"以伊"冲突的背景下，全球军贸需求持续深化我国军贸装备产的性能、性价比 优势。但是客观来说，军工出海仍面临多重挑战。 公募基金市场动态： 7月1日，信澳优势行业与华商致远回报将启动募集，至此全部26只浮动管理费基金开始募 集。 主动权益基金指数表现跟踪 主动股基优 ...

Market Overview - In June 2025, the stock market experienced an overall rise due to the easing of Middle Eastern tensions and multiple thematic catalysts, while bond market interest rates declined [4][7] - The average parity of convertible bonds reached a near-high level, with significant valuation increases for bond-like convertible bonds [5][7] - The China Securities Convertible Bond Index closed at 442.1 points on June 27, marking a 2.68% increase for the month [7] Convertible Bond Market Analysis - As of June 27, the arithmetic average parity of convertible bonds was 103.14 yuan, up 3.77% from the previous month, placing it in the 98th percentile since 2023 [7][23] - The average conversion premium rate for bonds in the price range of 90 to 125 yuan was 21.13%, also in the 48th percentile for 2023 [7][23] - The average yield to maturity (YTM) for bond-like convertible bonds fell below zero, indicating a shift in market sentiment [7][29] Recommended Convertible Bonds - The "Top Ten Convertible Bonds" for July 2025 include: - **Shenzhen Gas Convertible Bond (113067.SH)**: High balance and stable profitability, rated AAA [31][32] - **Hongcheng Convertible Bond (110077.SH)**: Stable operations and high dividend payout, rated AA+ [31][43] - **Weir Convertible Bond (113616.SH)**: Strong growth in consumer electronics and automotive sectors, rated AA+ [31][55] - **Jingce Convertible Bond (123176.SZ)**: Urgent need for domestic semiconductor testing equipment, rated AA- [31][66] - **Haoyuan Convertible Bond (118051.SH)**: Recovery trend in innovative drug development, rated AA- [31][79] - **Huakang Convertible Bond (111018.SH)**: Leading position in functional sugar alcohols, rated AA- [31][90] - **Bohai Convertible Bond (113069.SH)**: Steady growth in special alloy materials, rated AA [31][101] - **Dongcai Convertible Bond (113064.SH)**: Increased demand for high-frequency resin materials driven by AI server construction, rated AA [31][113] Industry Insights - The gas industry, represented by Shenzhen Gas, is experiencing steady growth in natural gas sales, with a 5.06% year-on-year increase in supply volume [36] - The environmental governance sector, led by Hongcheng Environment, shows stable revenue growth from water supply and treatment services, with a focus on expanding its business footprint [46] - The semiconductor industry, highlighted by Weir Group, is benefiting from increased demand in automotive electronics and consumer electronics, with significant revenue growth projected [58] - The healthcare sector, represented by Haoyuan Pharmaceutical, is positioned to capitalize on the recovery of innovative drug research and development [82]

Core Viewpoint - The bond market is experiencing a significant "duration extension" trend, particularly driven by public funds aggressively purchasing long-duration bonds, leading to a notable compression in credit spreads for bonds with maturities over five years [1][2][4]. Group 1: Market Trends - Recent weeks have seen a clear trend of extending durations in the bond market, especially in the credit bond sector, which has outperformed the interest rate bond market [2]. - As of June 27, the duration of bond funds has increased from approximately 2.5 years at the beginning of June to over 2.7 years [3]. - The total scale of credit bond ETFs has surged to 214.7 billion yuan, marking a 50% increase since the end of May, with notable growth in specific ETFs [4]. Group 2: Market Sentiment and Risks - Despite the ongoing "bull market" in bonds, there are rising concerns about market overcrowding, with credit spreads nearing historical lows and leverage ratios approaching historical highs [5]. - Analysts express a generally optimistic outlook for the bond market, citing supportive fundamentals such as weak domestic demand and a favorable monetary policy stance from the central bank [5][6]. Group 3: Investment Strategies - It is recommended to maintain a focus on long-duration bonds to capitalize on the anticipated bull market following the quarter-end [7]. - Investors are advised to consider bonds with durations between 3 to 5 years, particularly those with higher yields, while remaining cautious of potential market volatility [8].

另一个是"资资产" 可能的再现。今年资产供给前置，一半以上的政府债 券净融资在上半年，如果不新加预算，政府债券净融资月均同比多增量将 从上半年 7000 亿左右下降到下半年的负值，同时实际利率上升抑制非政 府债券社融。因而下半年资产供给节奏将放缓。但资金供给充足，这决定 配置力量旺盛。居民持续增加存款、保险、理财、货基债基等低风险偏好 资产配置。而央行主动和被动的也会增加资金投放，一方面上半年同比多 增的财政存款会在 3 季度左右投放，另一方面，央行对流动性呵护增强， 5 月以来资金投放增加。如果后续央行开启国债买卖，那么市场将进一步 向资产"的方向演进。 证券研究报告 | 固定收益年度策略 gszqdatemark 2025 06 30 年 月 日 年度策略 踏着熟悉的节奏——2025 年债市中期策略 2025 年上半年债市大幅波动，外部扰动明显加大。24 年底利率开启快速 下行，这在 25 年初延续，10 年国债一度突破 1.6%的低位。而后随着资 金的收紧，以及春节之后银行抛券压力的上升，市场开始了大幅调整。10 年国债最高一度达到 1.9%附近，而仅 30bps 的调整幅度也是长债 2023 年以来最 ...

Core Viewpoint - The credit bond ETF from Bosera has shown significant growth and liquidity in the market, becoming a popular choice among investors seeking yield in a low-return environment [3][4]. Group 1: Performance Metrics - As of June 30, 2025, the Bosera credit bond ETF was priced at 101.1 yuan, with a 3-month cumulative increase of 1.19%, ranking 2nd out of 4 comparable funds [3]. - The ETF has achieved a record high in size, reaching 116.46 billion yuan, and a total of 1.15 million shares, both ranking 2nd among comparable funds [3]. - The ETF has demonstrated strong profitability, with a monthly profit percentage of 75.00% and a historical 100% probability of profit over a 3-month holding period [4]. Group 2: Liquidity and Fund Flows - The Bosera credit bond ETF has seen a net inflow of 30.52 million yuan recently, with a total of 302 million yuan in net inflows over the past five trading days [4]. - The trading volume has been active, with an average daily transaction of 5.606 billion yuan over the past week, ranking first among comparable funds [3]. Group 3: Risk and Fee Structure - The ETF has a maximum drawdown of 0.89% since inception, with a recovery time of 26 days [4]. - The management fee is 0.15% and the custody fee is 0.05%, making it the lowest among comparable funds [4]. - The tracking error for the ETF this year is 0.009%, indicating the highest tracking precision among comparable funds [4].

Core Viewpoint - The Hong Kong stock market has shown strong performance since Q4 2024, significantly outperforming the A-share market, but faces challenges such as pulse-like rebounds and concentration in a few sectors, making it difficult for investors to achieve excess returns. However, precise timing and understanding of market rhythms can lead to substantial gains [1][2]. Industry Rotation Context - The market has experienced several rounds of rebounds driven by macroeconomic factors, including fiscal policy shifts and the rise of AI technology. Key phases include: 1. The "924" policy shift led to a rally in non-bank and real estate sectors, focusing on total policy [1]. 2. The emergence of "DeepSeek" post-Spring Festival revalued AI-related tech and internet leaders, driven by industry trends [1]. 3. The tariff situation in April spurred growth in new consumption and innovative pharmaceuticals, influenced by industry catalysts and liquidity [1][2]. Macro Environment Analysis - The current market dynamics are characterized by a combination of abundant liquidity and structural challenges, leading to index fluctuations and active structural trends. The macroeconomic backdrop includes: - Continued credit contraction in the private sector and limited fiscal stimulus, which restricts overall credit cycle expansion while supporting market stability [8][9]. - The emergence of new growth points, particularly in AI and new consumption sectors, which contribute to the active structural market [9][10]. Investment Strategy Insights - The investment strategy emphasizes the importance of focusing on sectors with stable or improving return on equity (ROE). Key insights include: - Stable returns are found in sectors like banking and utilities, which maintain consistent ROE, while growth opportunities lie in technology, new consumption, and innovative pharmaceuticals, which have shown significant ROE recovery [18][19]. - The analysis of trading concentration, southbound capital flows, and valuation metrics is crucial for identifying sector rotation opportunities [22][23]. Trading and Positioning Dynamics - The analysis of trading dynamics reveals: - High trading concentration in new consumption and innovative pharmaceuticals, with recent declines in AI sector concentration [23][24]. - Southbound capital flows have favored new consumption and innovative pharmaceuticals, indicating strong investor interest in these sectors [32][34]. - The increase in short positions in certain sectors suggests a shift in investor sentiment, highlighting the need for caution in trading strategies [36][37]. Valuation Considerations - Valuation analysis indicates that while high-dividend sectors are under scrutiny, technology and new consumption sectors are experiencing valuation recovery. Key points include: - The AH premium threshold is set at 125%, which serves as a benchmark for high-dividend stocks, while technology and new consumption sectors are aligning with their ROE [44][45].

Core Insights - The current market dynamics and investment strategies are influenced by macroeconomic factors, with a focus on minimizing errors and respecting market trends [1][2][4] - The investment philosophy emphasizes making sound purchasing decisions rather than merely acquiring "good assets" [3] - The integration of AI technology is enhancing research efficiency and decision-making processes within the investment framework [8][9] Group 1: Investment Philosophy - The importance of macro analysis is highlighted, as any investment behavior detached from the macro context poses significant risks [2] - The investment approach is centered around a framework that combines various asset classes, aiming for a dynamic balance to optimize returns [4][5] - The philosophy of "less error" in investment decisions is compared to sports, where maintaining a high success rate in critical moments is essential [1][3] Group 2: Market Dynamics - The current market is characterized by a profound restructuring of supply and demand, leading to a shift in investment strategies [3] - The concept of "asset scarcity" is discussed, indicating that the demand side has more choices rather than a complete disappearance of assets [3] - The bond market is expected to exhibit a different pattern in 2025 compared to the previous year, with increased volatility [3] Group 3: AI Integration - AI is viewed as a tool to enhance cognitive efficiency rather than a replacement for human analysts, allowing researchers to focus on value-creating tasks [8][9] - The use of AI in generating high-accuracy meeting records and developing complex risk evaluation models is noted as a significant advancement [8] - AI's role in credit research is emphasized, with the ability to analyze vast amounts of data and produce comprehensive reports [9]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint emphasizes that convertible bonds with strong underlying stocks and high volatility are the most cost-effective options in the current market environment [2][17] - The market saw a significant increase in the convertible bond index, with a weekly rise of 2.08% and an average price increase of 4.54% [2][9] - The average conversion premium across different price ranges showed varied changes, indicating a shift in market sentiment and valuation [9][18] Group 2 - The report suggests that investors should avoid low-priced strategies in the convertible bond market and focus on high-volatility, strong underlying stocks for better returns [2][17] - It highlights the importance of adjusting positions based on risk tolerance, recommending a shift to lower volatility sectors for those with high withdrawal requirements [2][17] - The analysis indicates that the convertible bond market still has incremental capital inflow, benefiting from the profit-taking effect observed at the end of June [2][17]

Core Viewpoint - Xinwang Bank, a small yet beautiful example in the banking sector, is facing an asset shortage in 2024, similar to the entire consumer credit industry [2][3]. Group 1: Financial Performance - In 2024, Xinwang Bank issued nearly 300 million yuan in dividends, marking the first dividend distribution since its establishment [3]. - The amount of loans and advances issued by Xinwang Bank increased by approximately 2 billion yuan, representing the lowest growth rate in recent years [4]. - The "buy-back financial assets" increased by over 6 billion yuan, indicating a shift towards lower-risk, lower-return assets as a strategy to balance risk and adjust asset structure [5]. Group 2: Asset Quality - The asset shortage is a common issue in the credit industry, particularly in consumer credit, but it is more accurately described as a shortage of quality assets [5]. - Xinwang Bank's non-performing loan (NPL) ratio reached a three-year low in 2024, despite a minimal decline, which is significant given the small growth in the denominator [5][6]. Group 3: Growth Opportunities - The next growth point for Xinwang Bank may lie in corporate loans, particularly targeting small and micro enterprises that traditional banks find hard to reach [6][7]. - Xinwang Bank has made strides in corporate loans in 2023, although growth in 2024 is limited, it still accounts for a significant portion of the increase [8]. - The bank's shareholders primarily come from the real economy, which presents both challenges and opportunities in leveraging these relationships for financial services [8]. Group 4: Strategic Focus - Xinwang Bank aims to maintain a steady development pace and reasonable operational scale while focusing resources on serving the real economy, promoting consumption upgrades, and supporting the development of small and micro enterprises [8].