Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the continuation of a stable yet progressive macroeconomic policy, focusing on maintaining policy stability while enhancing flexibility and timely adjustments to stimulate economic recovery [1][3]. Fiscal Policy - The fiscal policy aims for detailed implementation, emphasizing structural optimization, with a focus on enhancing social welfare and targeted spending for specific groups [4]. - The government plans to accelerate the issuance of long-term special bonds, with net financing reaching 7.66 trillion yuan in the first half of 2025 [4]. Monetary Policy - A moderately loose monetary policy is anticipated, with potential interest rate cuts to lower overall financing costs for society [5]. - The central bank has already implemented a 10 basis point interest rate cut and a 50 basis point reserve requirement ratio reduction, with further easing expected [5]. Industry Policy - The industry policy focuses on fostering technological innovation and promoting healthy competition, with an emphasis on emerging industries and strategic sectors [6][8]. - Key areas for support include quantum computing, artificial intelligence, and biotechnology, with a push for collaboration between research institutions and enterprises [6]. Real Estate Policy - The real estate policy highlights the importance of high-quality urban renewal and managing local government debt risks, with a focus on stabilizing the housing market [9]. - Recent data shows a decline in property sales, with June's sales area and revenue down by 5.5% and 10.8% year-on-year, respectively [9]. Domestic Demand Expansion - The strategy for expanding domestic demand involves enhancing both consumption scenarios and consumer capacity, with potential policies to optimize social security contributions and tax structures [11][12]. - Recent retail sales data indicates a 4.8% year-on-year growth, but a decline in consumer confidence remains a concern [11]. Employment and Social Welfare - The employment policy prioritizes job creation for key demographics, including recent graduates and migrant workers, while ensuring social safety nets are in place [13]. - The approach combines development with safety nets to stabilize society and rebuild consumer confidence [13]. Capital Market - The capital market is encouraged to enhance its attractiveness and inclusivity, with recent positive performance in A-shares and Hong Kong stocks [14]. - The government has introduced various supportive measures to stabilize and invigorate the capital market, including optimizing monetary policy tools [14]. High-Level Opening Up - The policy aims to maintain a stable foundation for foreign trade and investment, with measures to support foreign trade enterprises and promote integrated development of domestic and foreign trade [15]. - The focus is on enhancing the resilience of enterprises and the support capabilities of open platforms in a complex external environment [15].

政策连续，兼顾长短 [Table_Authors] 黄汝南(分析师) ——2025 年 7 月政治局会议点评 本报告导读： 政策依旧留有后手，密切关注外部风险可能的反复和国内基本面的变化，以及"十五 五"规划中确定性的产业线索。 投资要点： [Table_Summary] 中共中央政治局 7 月 30 日召开会议，决定 2025 年 10 月召开中共 四中全会，研究制定"十五五"规划的建议，并分析研究当前经济形 势和部署下半年经济工作。总的来看有三个特征：一是对内外部形 势的判断相较 4 月政治局会议更加积极；二是强调政策连续性，下 半年有望迎来"适时加力"的窗口期；三是适逢"十五五"规划起草在 即，政策兼顾短期稳增长和长期促改革。与 2020 年 7 月政治局会 议对"十四五"的相关表述相比，亮点是增加了"推动人的全面发展、 全体人民共同富裕迈出坚实步伐"的表述，这与此前强调的"投资于 人"一脉相承。 从对下半年工作的具体部署来看，有以下几个亮点： huangrunan@gtht.com 登记编号 S0880523080001 证 券 研 究 宏观研究 /[Table_Date] 2025.07.30 20 ...

Group 1 - The report highlights that China's economy is showing steady progress with a GDP growth of 5.3% year-on-year in the first half of the year, surpassing the annual target [4][5] - The meeting emphasized the need for continuous and stable macro policies, focusing on the effective implementation of existing policies to support economic development [4][5] - There is a strong emphasis on expanding domestic demand, with initiatives to boost consumption and high-quality investment in key projects [4][5] Group 2 - The report indicates a commitment to technological innovation as a driver for new productive forces, aiming to enhance the core position of China's industries in the global supply chain [4][5] - The governance of market competition is highlighted, with a focus on regulating disorderly competition and managing capacity in key industries [5] - The report suggests that the capital market will maintain a positive trend, with reforms aimed at enhancing its attractiveness and inclusivity [5]

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the positive evaluation of the current economic situation by the Political Bureau meeting, highlighting the need for continuous macroeconomic policy support and the importance of balancing economic recovery with structural adjustments [1][2][3]. Summary by Sections Economic Outlook - The Political Bureau meeting assessed the economy as stable with positive indicators, while acknowledging ongoing risks and challenges, particularly from external environments and domestic structural issues [1][2][3]. - The meeting set the tone for the second half of the year, indicating a likely "timely increase" in policy support, with a focus on both short-term growth and long-term reforms [2][4]. Macroeconomic Policy - The meeting stressed the need for continuity, stability, flexibility, and foresight in macroeconomic policies, with an emphasis on "sustained efforts and timely increases" in fiscal and monetary policies [4][7][8]. - There is a shift in focus from "using well" to "implementing and refining" existing policies, indicating a more cautious approach to new stimulus measures [8][17]. Capital Market - The meeting highlighted the importance of enhancing the attractiveness and inclusiveness of the domestic capital market, aiming to consolidate the positive momentum in the market [6][12][19]. - The capital market is expected to benefit from the overall economic stability and supportive policies, with a positive outlook for equity markets [10][14]. Structural Reforms - The meeting called for deepening the construction of a unified national market and improving market competition order, while also addressing issues of excessive competition and local government debt risks [5][11][20]. - There is a focus on promoting high-quality development and technological innovation, with an emphasis on nurturing new growth drivers [7][21]. Consumer and Investment Policies - The meeting underscored the need to expand consumption and stabilize investment, with a particular focus on service consumption as a new growth point [12][24]. - Policies will continue to support small and micro enterprises, stabilize foreign trade, and enhance the overall economic environment [22][24].

Group 1: Manufacturing Sector - The manufacturing PMI for July is 49.3%, a decrease of 0.4 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a decline in manufacturing activity [1] - Large enterprises have a PMI of 50.3%, slightly down but still above the critical point; medium enterprises have a PMI of 49.5%, up by 0.9 percentage points but below the critical point; small enterprises have a PMI of 46.4%, down by 0.9 percentage points and below the critical point [1] - The production index is at 50.5%, down by 0.5 percentage points but still indicates expansion; the new orders index is at 40.4%, down by 0.8 percentage points, showing a slowdown in market demand [1] Group 2: Non-Manufacturing Sector - The non-manufacturing PMI for July is 50.1%, a decrease of 0.4 percentage points but still above the critical point; the construction index is at 50.6%, down by 2.2 percentage points, while the service index is at 50.0%, down by 0.1 percentage points [2] - The CD index is at 45.7%, down by 0.9 percentage points, indicating a decline in non-manufacturing market demand [2] - The comprehensive PMI output is at 50.2%, down by 0.5 percentage points but still indicates overall expansion in business activities [2] Group 3: Economic Policy and Outlook - The Central Political Bureau meeting emphasized maintaining policy continuity and stability while enhancing flexibility and foresight to address internal and external shocks [3][4] - The meeting highlighted the need for proactive measures to stimulate domestic demand, with final consumption contributing 52% to GDP growth in the first half of the year [4] - The meeting also pointed out the importance of deepening reforms and fostering technological innovation to develop new competitive industries [5] Group 4: Capital Market - The meeting stressed enhancing the attractiveness and inclusivity of the domestic capital market, with a focus on improving the quality of listed companies to attract investments [6] - The Shanghai Composite Index has shown positive momentum, surpassing key levels of 3500 and 3600 points since April [6] - There is an expectation for a long-term bullish trend in the capital market, driven by increased investment from institutional investors and the inclusion of innovative companies in the market [6]

每日市场观察 2025 年 7 月 31 日 【今日关注】 周三沪指早盘走高午后回落；深成指和创业板指数开盘后就显露颓势， 午后一度加速回落。截至收盘，沪指涨 0.17%，深成指跌 0.77%，创业 板指数跌 1.62%。板块方面，采掘、船舶制造、旅游酒店、食品饮料、 商业百货、文化传媒、医药商业、石油、钢铁、农业等涨幅居前；电池、 多元金融、小金属、工程机械、电源设备、软件开发、电机、光伏设备 等板块调整明显。两市涨少跌多，其中上涨股票 1662 只，下跌股票数 量 3412 只；沪深两市总成交金额超 1.84 万亿，环比有所放大。 市场自 6 月 24 日以来持续震荡上扬，尤其是创业板个股短线涨幅较大， 累积了不小获利盘。越向上行，资金就越恐高，叠加日线及小时级别指 标持续高位钝化，获利为安的心态使得盘面稍显疲弱就会导致有资金流 出。然而从盘面来看，权重板块依然力挺股指，股指长期趋势保持良好， 强势调整是为了后面更好更持续的上攻。当下的调整仅仅是修正日线级 别指标，空间较为有限。投资者没有必要单纯因为短线涨幅就恐慌离场， 须知强势行情中最可惜的就是降低仓位。 的优质标的可待充分调整后再度关注，这样既降低了 ...

来源：国泰海通证券研究 导读 政策依旧留有后手，密切关注外部风险可能的反复和国内基本面的变化，以及"十五五"规划中确定性的产业线索。 投资要点 中共中央政治局7月30日召开会议，决定2025年10月召开中共四中全会，研究制定"十五五"规划的建议，并分析研究当前经济形势和部署下半年经济工 作。总的来看有三个特征：一是对内外部形势的判断相较4月政治局会议更加积极；二是强调政策连续性，下半年有望迎来"适时加力"的窗口期；三是适 逢"十五五"规划起草在即，政策兼顾短期稳增长和长期促改革。与2020年7月政治局会议对"十四五"的相关表述相比，亮点是增加了"推动人的全面发展、 全体人民共同富裕迈出坚实步伐"的表述，这与此前强调的"投资于人"一脉相承。 从对下半年工作的具体部署来看，有以下几个亮点： 第一，对财政和货币政策的要求从"用好用足"转变为"落实落细"，"充分释放政策效应"。财政政策方面，会议要求"提高资金使用效率"；货币政策方面， 则要求"用好各项结构性货币政策工具"。在二季度各项宏观政策已经在加速落实的背景下，下半年将更加关注政策效果。 第二，"反内卷"淡化"低价"，置于全国统一大市场建设的总体布局之中。与中央 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The short - term view of IH2509 is volatile, the medium - term view is rising, the intraday view is strongly volatile, and the overall view is rising, supported by positive policy expectations [1] - For IF, IH, IC, and IM, the intraday view is strongly volatile, the medium - term view is rising, and the overall view is rising. The stock index is expected to be strongly volatile in the short term [5] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Variety View Reference - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - For IH2509, short - term: volatile; medium - term: rising; intraday: strongly volatile; view reference: rising; core logic: positive policy expectations provide strong support [1] Main Variety Price Market Driving Logic - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - Yesterday, each stock index was in a narrow - range volatile consolidation. The trading volume of the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing stock markets was 1871 billion yuan, an increase of 41.7 billion yuan from the previous day [5] - The Politburo meeting emphasized the implementation of existing policies, including more active fiscal policies and moderately loose monetary policies, focusing on boosting consumption and supporting technological innovation. It also aimed to enhance the attractiveness and inclusiveness of the domestic capital market [5] - The Politburo meeting had few incremental benefits. Since late June, some stocks have risen significantly, and some profit - taking funds may seek to take profits, weakening the short - term upward driving force of the stock index [5] - New policy incremental benefits are expected to wait for the policy guidance of the Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th CPC Central Committee in October. Currently, the stock market trading volume is at a relatively high level, and market risk appetite has recovered, so the stock index is expected to be strongly volatile in the short term [5]

国盛证券首席经济学家，熊园 博士 国盛证券宏观分析师，朱慧、杨涛、穆仁文 事件：2025年7月30日，政治局会议召开，分析研究当前经济形势和经济工作。 核心观点：本次会议最重要的信号是确定10月召开二十届四中全会，主题是审议"十五五"规划编制建议。经济工作方面，下半年政策将着力各种"稳"、并 重提要努力完成完全年目标，指向短期将更注重抓落实，后续应会有新政策、但并非强刺激、更可能是"托而不举"，新提"适时加力、增强灵活性预见 性"，则预示一旦形势恶化也会很快出台增量政策。具体看，本次会议还是有不少增量信息，尤其是：再次突出"反内卷"，主抓手反价格战、去产能、规 范政府招商；首提"增强国内资本市场的吸引力和包容性，巩固资本市场回稳向好势头"，指向稳股市仍是硬要求、调整就是机会；未直接提房地产，改 为"高质量开展城市更新"；未提"以旧换新"，强调"培育服务消费新的增长点"；删掉"适时降准降息"，延续强调"促进社会综合融资成本下行"和"用好各项 结构性货币政策工具"，指向下调LPR仍可能；财政政策突出"落实落细"，指向短期难以扩赤字、调预算等。我们也继续提示：事情正在起变化，对A股可 以乐观点，债券短期有所调整、可 ...

Group 1 - The Central Political Bureau meeting emphasized enhancing the attractiveness and inclusiveness of the domestic capital market to consolidate its recovery momentum [1] - The meeting highlighted the need to prevent and resolve risks in key areas, including local government debt and hidden debts [1] - It called for expanding high-level opening-up and stabilizing foreign trade and investment, with measures to support foreign trade enterprises [1] Group 2 - The Ministry of Finance announced that it will issue a management approach for childcare subsidy funds in collaboration with the National Health Commission [2] - The childcare subsidy system aims to ensure safety, efficiency, and social supervision in fund distribution [2] - The central government has allocated a preliminary budget of approximately 90 billion yuan for childcare subsidies this year [10] Group 3 - The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs issued a notice to accelerate support for the dairy industry and enhance its high-quality development [4] - Policies include financial service guarantees, cost reduction, and promoting the development of dairy products [4] Group 4 - The National Internet Information Office released a report advocating for accelerated innovation in network information technology and industry ecosystem development [5] - The report emphasizes self-reliance, public benefit, and international cooperation in information technology [5] Group 5 - The Chinese coking industry association decided to raise prices for various types of coke starting from July 31, with increases of 50 to 75 yuan per ton [6] Group 6 - The launch of the national AI open-source platform "Huanxin Community" aims to lower the application threshold for AI technology and foster a competitive domestic AI ecosystem [7][8] Group 7 - The successful development of a neutrino power generation device by "Yutai Energy" marks a significant step towards commercial application, with a notable reduction in generation costs [11]