Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - For gold, tariff concerns resurfaced, and the risk appetite significantly cooled the previous day. The gold price declined briefly but rebounded at night. The upward trend of gold price remains unchanged due to tariff concerns and interest - rate cut expectations. The premium of Shanghai gold expanded to -5 yuan/gram, and the domestic sentiment increased notably [4]. - For silver, tariff concerns resurfaced, and the risk appetite cooled the previous day. The silver price dropped briefly and reached an important psychological pressure level, leading to profit - taking by funds. The upward trend of silver price remains unchanged due to tariff concerns and interest - rate cut expectations. The premium of Shanghai silver expanded significantly to -250 yuan/gram, and the domestic sentiment for silver price recovered notably [6]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1前日回顾 - **Gold**: The U.S. three major stock indexes closed mixed, European three major stock indexes closed mixed, U.S. Treasury yields fell collectively (10 - year Treasury yield dropped 2.50 basis points to 4.028%), the dollar index fell 0.21% to 99.05, the offshore RMB depreciated slightly against the dollar to 7.14, and COMEX gold futures rose 0.64% to $4159.60 per ounce. The basis was -3.97 with the spot at a discount to the futures. The inventory of gold futures increased by 1455 kilograms to 72183 kilograms. The 20 - day moving average was upward, and the k - line was above the 20 - day moving average. The main net position was long, and the main long positions decreased [4][5]. - **Silver**: The U.S. three major stock indexes rose across the board, European three major stock indexes closed slightly higher, U.S. Treasury yields fell collectively (10 - year Treasury yield dropped 6.37 basis points to 4.053%), the dollar index rose 0.43% to 99.26, the offshore RMB depreciated slightly against the dollar to 7.1478, and COMEX silver futures fell 0.17% to $50.35 per ounce. The basis was -41 with the spot at a discount to the futures. The inventory of Shanghai silver futures decreased by 61384 kilograms to 1063072 kilograms. The 20 - day moving average was upward, and the k - line was above the 20 - day moving average. The main net position was long, and the main long positions increased [6]. 3.2每日提示 - **Gold**: The expected events to watch include China's CPI and PPI, whether the U.S. government shutdown ends, the Fed's Beige Book, and intensive speeches by Fed and ECB members. Despite the resurfaced tariff concerns, the risk appetite cooled the previous day. The gold price declined briefly and then rebounded at night. The upward trend of gold price remains unchanged due to tariff concerns and interest - rate cut expectations [4]. - **Silver**: The expected events to watch are the same as for gold. The silver price dropped briefly and reached an important psychological pressure level, leading to profit - taking by funds. The upward trend of silver price remains unchanged due to tariff concerns and interest - rate cut expectations [6]. 3.3今日关注 The events to watch on this day include: at 07:30, the speech of Sarah Hunter, Assistant Governor for Economic Affairs of the Reserve Bank of Australia; at 09:30, China's September CPI and PPI; the time - undetermined release of India's September imports, exports, and trade balance; at 15:40, the speech of de Guindos, Vice - President of the European Central Bank; at 16:00, the speech of Ramsden, Deputy Governor of the Bank of England; at 17:00, the euro - zone's August industrial output; possibly at 20:30, the U.S. October New York Fed Manufacturing Index; at 21:30, the speech of Fed Governor Milan at the "Invest in America Forum"; at 21:45, the speeches of ECB Governing Council members Donnelly and Rehn; at 23:45, the speech of Breeden, Deputy Governor of the Bank of England; at 23:50, the speech of Villeroy, ECB Governing Council member and Governor of the Bank of France; at 00:15, Donnelly's participation in a panel discussion at the IIF Annual Meeting; at 00:30 the next day, the speech of Fed Governor Milan at the Nomura Research Forum; at 01:00 the next day, Fed Governor Waller's talk on artificial intelligence (AI); at 02:00 the next day, the release of the Fed's Beige Book and the speech of Breeden, Deputy Governor of the Bank of England; at 02:30 the next day, the speech of Jeff Schmid, President of the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City (2025 FOMC voter); at 03:45 the next day, the participation of Michele Bullock, Governor of the Reserve Bank of Australia, in a fireside chat during the Nomura Research Forum; at 05:50 the next day, the speech of Christopher Kent, Assistant Governor for Financial Markets of the Reserve Bank of Australia [15]. 3.4基本面数据 - **Gold**: The fundamental factors are a mix of neutral, bearish, and bullish. The basis shows the spot at a discount to the futures (neutral), the inventory increase is bearish, the position of the k - line relative to the 20 - day moving average is bullish, and the main net long position is bullish [4][5]. - **Silver**: The fundamental factors are also a mix. The basis shows the spot at a discount to the futures (neutral), the inventory change is neutral, the position of the k - line relative to the 20 - day moving average is bullish, and the main net long position is bullish [6]. 3.5持仓数据 - **Gold**: The main net position is long, and the main long positions decreased. The long positions of the top 20 holders in Shanghai gold decreased by 4.28% (from 220,070 to 210,658), the short positions increased by 0.33% (from 78,569 to 78,831), and the net position decreased by 6.84% (from 141,501 to 131,827) [5][31]. - **Silver**: The main net position is long, and the main long positions increased. The long positions of the top 20 holders in Shanghai silver decreased by 3.22% (from 368,167 to 356,307), the short positions decreased by 1.81% (from 268,339 to 263,493), and the net position decreased by 7.03% (from 99,828 to 92,814) [6][34].

Group 1 - The economic internal pressure is gradually emerging as the "cyclical" forces weaken, with high export growth driven by the shift from short-term "export grabbing" logic to medium-term logic of "industrialization acceleration in emerging countries" and China's market share replacement in emerging markets [2][10] - Domestic demand may continue to be under pressure, reflected in the decline of equipment renewal cycles and reduced new construction, leading to potential further downturns in manufacturing and real estate investment [2][22] - The profit margin for enterprises remains under pressure, with August industrial enterprise profits rebounding significantly (+21 percentage points to 19.8%), primarily due to low base effects and short-term factors, while cost rates remain high at 85.6% [3][31] Group 2 - The transition from "old policies" to "new policies" may have a time lag in stimulating the economy, with the "demand overdraw" effect from previous policies becoming more apparent, potentially leading to weaker consumer goods consumption and manufacturing investment [4][83] - The issuance of special government bonds has been completed, and many regions have suspended national subsidies, indicating a potential decline in manufacturing investment and consumer goods retail growth [4][38] - The implementation of "incremental policies" is slow, with limited immediate impact on the economy, as new policy financial tools totaling 500 billion yuan are expected to take time to translate into substantial economic support [5][84] Group 3 - Expectations for inflation support are diminishing, with upstream commodity price increases slowing down, leading to a reduced impact on the Producer Price Index (PPI) [6][59] - The Producer Price Index (PPI) and Consumer Price Index (CPI) are expected to show weak recovery characteristics, with PPI growth being limited by lower capacity utilization in downstream sectors [6][63] - Economic growth's internal momentum is expected to decline, with a focus on the effectiveness of incremental policies in supporting domestic demand, while external demand may still show resilience [8][71]

Group 1: Economic Trends - The internal pressure on the economy is gradually emerging as the cyclical forces decline, with manufacturing and real estate investments likely to continue their downward trend[1] - Exports are expected to maintain high growth, driven by the industrialization of emerging countries and China's increased market share in emerging markets[1] - The GDP growth is projected to be 4.6% in Q3 and 4.8% in Q4 of 2025, indicating limited downward pressure on the economy[6] Group 2: Corporate Profitability - In August, industrial enterprise profits rebounded significantly by 21 percentage points to 19.8%, primarily due to low base effects and short-term factors[2] - The cost rate for industrial enterprises remains high at 85.6%, which continues to drag down profit growth[2] Group 3: Policy Impact - The transition from "old policies" to "new policies" may lead to a time lag in economic stimulation, with potential weakness in consumer goods and manufacturing investments[3] - The issuance of special government bonds has been completed, but the impact on manufacturing investment may still be negative due to demand exhaustion effects[3] Group 4: Inflation and Price Trends - Expectations for inflation support are declining, with upstream commodity price increases slowing down, which reduces the positive impact on the Producer Price Index (PPI)[5] - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) is expected to remain low due to high youth unemployment and increased supply of live pigs, which suppresses food prices[5]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the long-term and medium-term price trends of silver, highlighting significant price movements and the factors influencing these trends, including macroeconomic conditions and supply-demand dynamics [4][10][94]. Group 1: Long-term Price Trends - Silver has experienced two major bull and bear cycles since the 1980s, with the current bull market starting in 2020 and breaking the $50 mark recently [4]. - Historical peaks for London silver approached $50, while New York silver has been relatively subdued in comparison [4]. Group 2: Medium-term Price Trends - Seasonal price patterns indicate that March, April, and June typically see lower prices, while January, February, July, and December perform better [6]. - The current market has seen a record of six consecutive monthly gains, surpassing the previous record of five [6]. Group 3: Silver Analysis Framework - The financial attributes of silver have shifted to commodity attributes, with 59% of its characteristics now aligned with commodities, making it more sensitive to inflation expectations than gold [10]. - Silver's pricing is primarily based on gold, but its historical volatility is greater than that of gold [10]. Group 4: Influencing Factors and Outlook - The narrative of "de-dollarization" continues to gain traction, with major economies diversifying their foreign reserves by reducing U.S. Treasury holdings and increasing gold reserves [19]. - The Federal Reserve's interest rate policies and market expectations are crucial, with the neutral interest rate currently at 3.2%, slightly above the Fed's long-term rate [23][27]. Group 5: Supply and Demand Dynamics - Global silver supply is primarily sourced from mining, accounting for over 80% of total supply, with production levels stable above 25,000 tons [55]. - Industrial demand for silver is robust, particularly in electronics and photovoltaics, which constitute nearly 60% of total demand [64][68]. Group 6: Investment Demand - Investment demand for silver has seen a resurgence, with physical investment increasing significantly, evidenced by a doubling of delivery volumes on Comex compared to the previous year [76][82]. - The anticipated supply-demand gap for silver is projected to narrow in 2025, with a forecasted physical demand of 35,716 tons, down 1% from the previous year [83].

二 〇 二 五 年 度 2025 年 10 月 14 日 白银新纪元：风浪与机遇并存 ——解析白银价差矛盾与行情展望 刘雨萱 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0020476 liuyuxuan@gtht.com 报告导读： 本报告深入剖析了白银市场所处的历史性时刻，核心围绕一场史无前例的现货挤仓展开。当前市场的 最大特征在于海外现货的极端紧俏，这具体表现为伦敦银相较纽约银出现历史首次价差倒挂，白银租赁利 率飙升至接近 40%的惊人水平，同时伦敦可流动库存已降至极其危险的低位。这一局面的形成，是过去数年 光伏需求推动下库存持续去化的长期铺垫、美国潜在关税威胁引发囤货套利的事件催化、以及全球投资情 绪与印度季节性买盘共振共同作用的结果。 面对如此极端的市场结构，我们演绎未来两种可能的演变路径。其一，是通过跨市场的物流套利实现再 平衡，即利用打开的出口窗口将白银从纽约或亚洲运往伦敦。然而，此路径受限于美国在关税落地前的出口 意愿不足以及中国自身的库存低位，其进程在很大程度上取决于关键的政策时点。其二，则是通过单边价格 的大幅回调，迫使获利盘了结并释放流动性，从而被动缓解现货矛盾。我们认为，当前可能正处于现货矛盾 的高峰，价差 ...

Group 1 - The Australian dollar (AUD) against the US dollar (USD) has declined, with the latest exchange rate at 0.6469, reflecting a drop of 0.75% after the Reserve Bank of Australia's (RBA) monetary policy meeting minutes were released [1] - The RBA indicated that the decision to maintain the cash rate at 3.6% was influenced by the risk of accelerating inflation amid a "slightly tight" labor market [1] - Consumer inflation expectations in Australia rose from 4.7% to 4.8%, marking the highest level since June, which has heightened concerns about potential inflation exceeding expectations in the third quarter [1] Group 2 - Market expectations suggest that the RBA will maintain the official cash rate at 3.6% following its decision in September [2] - Upcoming speeches from RBA officials and the release of September employment data are anticipated to provide further insights into the economic outlook [2] Group 3 - Technical analysis indicates that the AUD/USD exchange rate is in a downward channel, with a bearish trend prevailing [3] - The Relative Strength Index (RSI) remains below the neutral line of 50, reinforcing the bearish outlook for the AUD/USD [4] - Key support levels for the AUD/USD are identified at 0.6415 and 0.6373, while resistance levels are at 0.6630 and 0.6707 [3][4]

Report 1: Steel Industry Investment Rating No investment rating is provided in the report. Core View Although steel demand is weak, the cost side provides support. Pay attention to the support levels around 3000 and 3200 for the January contract of rebar and hot-rolled coil respectively. The short-term weak macro sentiment will suppress the black market, but if the Sino-US friction intensifies in the medium term, the inflation expectation of upstream resource products will increase. [1] Summary by Directory - **Steel Prices and Spreads**: Rebar and hot-rolled coil spot and futures prices mostly declined. For example, the spot price of rebar in East China dropped from 3230 to 3220 yuan/ton, and the 05 contract of rebar decreased from 3159 to 3139 yuan/ton. [1] - **Cost and Profit**: The steel billet price decreased by 10 to 2940 yuan/ton, and the profit of hot-rolled coil in East China decreased by 7. [1] - **Mills**: The daily average pig iron output decreased by 0.3 to 241.5 tons, a decline of 0.1%. The output of five major steel products decreased by 3.8 to 863.3 tons, a decline of 0.4%. [1] - **Inventory**: The inventory of five major steel products increased by 127.9 to 1600.7 tons, an increase of 8.7%. The rebar inventory increased by 57.4 to 659.6 tons, an increase of 9.5%. [1] - **Trading and Demand**: The building materials trading volume decreased by 0.7 to 9.1 tons, a decline of 7.1%. The apparent demand for five major steel products decreased by 153.4 to 751.4 tons, a decline of 17.0%. [1] Report 2: Iron Ore Industry Investment Rating No investment rating is provided in the report. Core View The iron ore market is in a balanced and slightly tight pattern. The weak performance of finished products drags down the raw materials. The iron ore is expected to fluctuate within a range. It is recommended to go long on the Iron Ore 2601 contract at low levels and conduct an arbitrage strategy of going long on iron ore and short on hot-rolled coil. [4] Summary by Directory - **Iron Ore Prices and Spreads**: The warehouse receipt costs of various iron ore powders increased, and the 1-5 spread increased by 3.0 to 23.5, an increase of 14.6%. [4] - **Supply**: The weekly global shipment volume of iron ore decreased by 71.5 to 3207.5 tons, a decline of 2.2%, and the 45-port arrival volume increased by 437.1 to 3045.8 tons, an increase of 16.8%. [4] - **Demand**: The weekly average daily pig iron output of 247 steel mills decreased by 0.3 to 241.5 tons, a decline of 0.1%. The national monthly crude steel output decreased by 229.0 to 7736.9 tons, a decline of 2.9%. [4] - **Inventory Changes**: The 45-port inventory increased by 46.7 to 14024.5 tons, an increase of 0.3%, and the imported ore inventory of 247 steel mills decreased by 990.6 to 9046.2 tons, a decline of 9.9%. [4] Report 3: Coke and Coking Coal Industry Investment Rating No investment rating is provided in the report. Core View For coke, it is recommended to go short on the Coke 2601 contract at high levels, with a reference range of 1550 - 1700, and conduct an arbitrage strategy of going long on iron ore and short on coke. For coking coal, it is recommended to go short on the Coking Coal 2601 contract at high levels, with a reference range of 1050 - 1200, and conduct an arbitrage strategy of going long on iron ore and short on coking coal. [6] Summary by Directory - **Coke and Coking Coal Prices and Spreads**: The prices of coke and coking coal contracts mostly declined. For example, the 01 contract of coke decreased from 1667 to 1643 yuan/ton, and the 01 contract of coking coal decreased from 1161 to 1146 yuan/ton. [6] - **Supply**: The daily average output of all-sample coking plants remained unchanged at 66.1 tons, and the output of raw coal decreased by 31.3 to 836.7 tons, a decline of 3.6%. [6] - **Demand**: The iron ore output decreased by 0.3 to 241.5 tons, a decline of 0.1%. [6] - **Inventory Changes**: The total coke inventory decreased by 10.1 to 909.8 tons, a decline of 1.1%, and the coking coal inventory of all-sample coking plants decreased by 78.7 to 959.1 tons, a decline of 7.6%. [6]

Macroeconomic and Industry News - In September, domestic copper rod production reached 99,960 tons, a month-on-month increase of 2.09% [1] - The comprehensive capacity utilization rate for September was 50.9%, up 1.04% from the previous month [1] - Among the surveyed companies, those with an annual capacity of over 50,000 tons had a utilization rate of 61.94%, increasing by 2.19% [1] - Companies with an annual capacity below 50,000 tons had a utilization rate of 37.57%, down 0.34% [1] - The copper rod market showed slight improvement during the traditional peak season in September, but no significant recovery was observed [1] Market Performance - The main copper futures contract closed at 86,520 CNY/ton, with a rise of 2.02% [1] - Trading volume was 85,000 lots, while open interest decreased by 1,362 lots to 200,500 lots [1] - The technical analysis indicates a bullish trend with a typical upward arrangement of moving averages [1] Supply and Demand Dynamics - The processing fees for imported copper ore have stabilized after a sharp decline, leading to expanded losses for smelters [2] - Initial consumption shows that only copper rod production remains at historically high levels, while copper pipes, cables, and copper plates are declining [3] - The market is shifting towards macro trading, influenced by rising inflation expectations and a cooling job market, with potential benefits for the non-ferrous sector due to anticipated interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [3] Inventory and Structural Analysis - Total inventory across major exchanges has increased, with Shanghai Futures Exchange and LME inventories showing a rapid accumulation followed by slight reductions [3] - COMEX inventory has been continuously increasing, indicating weak demand despite the traditional consumption peak [3] Conclusion - The short-term supply side still has speculative support due to tight mining conditions and negative processing fees, but the consumption side does not support sustained price increases [3] - The overall market may experience pulse-like price increases, but these may not be long-lasting [3] Strategy Recommendations - Existing long positions should be maintained, while new positions are not recommended at this time [4]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for copper is "Shock" [1] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term fundamentals provide a basis for speculation on the supply side, but the consumer side does not support continuous price increases. The overall trend will show pulse - like increases, which may not be long - lasting [2] - The market's trading logic has shifted to macro trading. With the re - rise of inflation expectations and the unexpected decline of employment expectations, the Fed's interest rate cut is favorable for the non - ferrous metals sector [2] 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs Macro and Industry News - In September 2025, the domestic copper rod output was 99,960 tons, a month - on - month increase of 2,100 tons or 2.09%. The comprehensive capacity utilization rate in September was 50.9%, a month - on - month increase of 1.04%. Among them, enterprises with an annual capacity of over 50,000 tons had a capacity utilization rate of 61.94%, a month - on - month increase of 2.19%, while those with an annual capacity of less than 50,000 tons had a capacity utilization rate of 37.57%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.34%. The copper rod market in September was only slightly better than in August [1] Market Conditions - The main contract of Shanghai copper in the night session closed at 86,520 yuan/ton, with a gain of 2.02%. The trading volume was 85,000 lots, and the open interest decreased by 1,362 lots to 200,500 lots. Technically, the market continued to recover losses, showing a typical bullish arrangement [1] Supply - The processing fee for imported copper concentrate in smelters has basically remained flat after a sudden decline, and the smelters' losses have expanded. It is necessary to determine whether it is the increase in smelting output or the tightening of the ore end. The 8 - month output data from the National Bureau of Statistics shows that domestic smelting has increased significantly, falsifying the previous view that the decline in processing fees was due to ore shortage [2] Demand - Among the primary consumption sectors, only the output of copper rods remains at a historically high level, while the outputs of copper tubes, cables, copper strips, etc. are all declining [2] Inventory and Structure - The total inventory of the three major exchanges has increased. The inventories of the Shanghai Futures Exchange and LME have changed from rapid accumulation to slight depletion, while the Comex inventory has continued to accumulate rapidly, indicating the weakness of the demand side [2] Strategy Suggestion - Existing long positions should be held, and it is not advisable to open new positions for the time being [2]

Group 1: Economic Overview - China's GDP growth rate for the first half of the year was significantly above 5.3%, exceeding market expectations[4] - Despite a strong supply side, demand remains weak, particularly in the real estate sector, which still holds a high proportion of household wealth[4] Group 2: Real Estate Insights - Rental yield is crucial; properties with rental yields above 3% are considered attractive if government bond yields are around 2%[8] - Historical data shows that even with high rental yields, such as 6% in the U.S. during 2012, housing prices did not stabilize until later[8] - The rental yield and price-to-rent ratio are essential indicators for assessing property value, similar to price-to-earnings ratios in the stock market[8] Group 3: Price Stability Factors - Housing prices are influenced by expectations of future price movements; when prices are expected to rise, rental yields become less significant[13] - A study of 13 economies revealed that during housing price adjustments, rental yields often revert to historical highs, indicating a compression of property valuations[16] - Stabilizing housing prices requires managing inflation expectations, as asset prices reflect the underlying economy[16] Group 4: Policy Implications - Recent macroeconomic policies in China have focused on boosting expectations and inflation, which are critical for stabilizing housing prices[17] - Continuous policy efforts are expected to play a key role in stabilizing housing prices and supporting domestic demand[17] Group 5: Risks - Global geopolitical risks, uncertainties in U.S. policies, and changes in regulatory policies pose significant risks to the housing market[20]