1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Recent major events have limited impact, with geopolitical and trade factors having little effect, and the full - fledged interest rate cut expectation may have limited driving force. The market focuses on the Fed's independence status at the Jackson Hole central bank annual meeting [48]. - Domestic commodities and the stock market are strong, pushing up the prices of gold and silver. With the marginal weakening of China's economic data in July, the expectation of policy intensification has risen again [48]. - Global central bank gold purchases have declined, with limited supportive effect [48]. - The pattern of silver being stronger than gold is hard to change for now. If the Fed restarts the interest rate cut cycle, it may change [48]. - Gold and silver prices are waiting for new driving factors. The current support from interest rate cut expectations, inflation expectations, and the US debt crisis remains unchanged, and the prices will likely continue to fluctuate [48]. - The Russia - Ukraine peace talks may make progress, but Trump's remarks add uncertainty. If a permanent cease - fire agreement is reached, gold and silver prices may decline [48]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review - The report presents multiple charts on gold and silver price - related data, including the spread between Shanghai gold 12 - 6 and Shanghai silver 12 - 6, the US dollar index, the US - China exchange rate, the US 10 - year Treasury yield, the inflation expectation, the spot ratio of London and Shanghai gold and silver, and the performance of major global stock indices and gold and silver spot prices [14][17][20][22]. 3.2 Logical Analysis - Multiple factors influence gold and silver prices. Domestic "anti - involution" policies have led to the explosion of domestic commodity sectors, with silver prices being affected by the photovoltaic industry, resulting in a situation where silver is stronger than gold. Trade disputes have less market attention, and the weakening trend of US dollar assets has been broken. The significant increase in the Fed's interest rate cut expectation and the Fed's political pressure drive up gold and silver prices. The market expects two interest rate cuts this year, and the focus is on the Fed's independence. The global economy cooled in July, and any cooling of US economic data will boost the interest rate cut expectation. China's economic data in July showed a slowdown in some aspects, with a differentiation between domestic and external demand [25]. - The probability of an interest rate cut in September is 84.7%. The probability distribution of different target interest rate ranges at different time points is provided, and the number of expected interest rate cuts has changed over time, decreasing to 2 times on May 18 and July 22, remaining at 2 times on August 15, and increasing to 3 times after July 1 [28][31][32][34][35]. 3.3 Fundamental Data - A large amount of US macro - economic data from January 2024 to August 2025 is presented, covering GDP, foreign trade, economic sentiment indices, industrial, real estate, public and private sectors, employment, and inflation data [27]. 3.4 Position Data - For the top 20 positions in Shanghai gold, on August 15, 2025, the long - position volume decreased by 0.03% compared to the previous day, the short - position volume decreased by 0.06%, and the net position increased by 0.07%. For the top 20 positions in Shanghai silver, on August 15, 2025, the long - position volume decreased by 3.82%, the short - position volume decreased by 3.22%, and the net position decreased by 9.92% [38][41]. - Gold ETF positions increased fluctuantly, while silver ETF positions decreased fluctuantly, and the prices of both were in a fluctuating state. Shanghai gold inventory continued to increase, with the basis in July 1 - 2 yuan/gram higher than the same period. Arbitrage trading pushed up the inventory. COMEX gold inventory fluctuated and remained at the highest level in the past 5 years. Shanghai silver inventory decreased and was higher than the same period last year, while COMEX silver inventory remained at an absolute high [42][45][46]. 3.5 Summary - The impact of major events on gold and silver prices is limited. The interest rate cut expectation has limited driving force. The market focuses on the Fed's independence. Domestic economic policies and the performance of the commodity and stock markets affect gold and silver prices. The support from central bank gold purchases is limited. The pattern of silver being stronger than gold may change with the Fed's interest rate cut cycle. Gold and silver prices will likely continue to fluctuate, and the outcome of the Russia - Ukraine peace talks adds uncertainty to gold and silver prices [48].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Overseas: The US economic fundamentals remain stable in the short - term, but there are employment and inflation pressures in the medium - term. The high - interest - rate environment affects consumption, and inflation may rebound in autumn, influencing the Fed's decision on interest rate cuts. - Domestic: In July, the growth rate of economic data slowed down, with weakening consumption and investment and declining credit demand. Exports provided support in July, but the pressure on exports may gradually emerge from September. - Asset Outlook: At the end of August, China enters the verification period of the seasonal peak season for fixed - asset investment and consumption. The global central bank summit in late August is also a window for speculating on Fed policies. As the economic growth slowdown pressure rises, short - term market volatility may increase [8]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Macro Highlights - **Overseas Macro**: The US economic fundamentals are stable in the short - term. High - interest rates affect consumption, and there are differences in CPI and PPI expectations. Inflation may rebound in autumn, influencing Fed decisions [8]. - **Domestic Macro**: In July, the domestic economic growth rate slowed down. Exports provided support, but the "rush to import" from the US decreased in late July. Exports may remain resilient in August but face pressure from September [8]. - **Asset Views**: In late August, the market enters a verification period and a policy - preview window. With the economic slowdown, short - term market volatility may increase [8]. 3.2 Viewpoint Highlights 3.2.1 Financial - **Stock Index Futures**: Growth opportunities are spreading, and it is expected to fluctuate upwards [9]. - **Stock Index Options**: An offensive strategy can be deployed, and it is expected to fluctuate upwards [9]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The bond market is still under pressure, and it is expected to fluctuate [9]. 3.2.2 Precious Metals - **Gold/Silver**: Precious metals are expected to fluctuate upwards, affected by Trump's tariff policy and the Fed's monetary policy [9]. 3.2.3 Shipping - **Container Shipping to Europe**: The peak season is turning to the off - season, and it is expected to fluctuate [9]. 3.2.4 Black Building Materials - **Steel Products**: Affected by production - restriction news, it is expected to fluctuate [9]. - **Iron Ore**: The fundamentals remain unchanged, and it is expected to fluctuate [9]. - **Coke**: With continuous production - restriction expectations, the seventh round of price increases has started, and it is expected to fluctuate [9]. 3.2.5 Non - ferrous Metals and New Materials - **Copper**: The price is expected to fluctuate at a high level due to the extension of the tariff suspension between China and the US [9]. - **Aluminum Oxide**: The spot is weakly stable, and the price is expected to fluctuate under pressure [9]. - **Aluminum**: The social inventory has slightly increased, and the price is expected to fluctuate at a high level [9]. 3.2.6 Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: The inventory - accumulation pressure continues, and it is expected to fluctuate downwards [11]. - **LPG**: The cracking spread has stabilized, and it is expected to fluctuate [11]. - **Asphalt**: The price at 3500 may turn from support to pressure, and it is expected to decline [11]. 3.2.7 Agriculture - **Hogs**: Affected by stricter transportation policies, the price is expected to fluctuate [11]. - **Rubber**: It is expected to fluctuate upwards, mainly in a range - bound pattern [11]. - **Pulp**: The price of coniferous wood pulp in US dollars has not increased, and it is expected to fluctuate [11].

Group 1 - The U.S. Department of Commerce has imposed a 50% tariff on 407 types of steel and aluminum derivative products, indicating a deepening of trade protectionism [3] - This policy aims to protect the domestic steel and aluminum industries while posing new challenges to global supply chains and related sectors, affecting a wide range of industries from wind turbines to automotive parts [3] - The tariff policy may serve as a catalyst for adjusting trade relations, prompting countries to reassess their positions within global supply chains [3] Group 2 - The imposition of tariffs is expected to raise inflation expectations, exacerbate trade tensions, and increase economic uncertainty, which overall benefits silver prices [3] - Despite potential short-term pressure from a strengthening dollar, rising safe-haven demand and heightened inflation expectations are likely to drive silver prices higher [3] - In the silver market, key resistance levels are identified in the 8.651-8.800 range, while support levels are noted in the 8.400-8.573 range [4]

Group 1: Oil Market - Recent optimism regarding a potential ceasefire in the Russia-Ukraine conflict has led to a decline in oil prices, with WTI crude dropping by 1.7% and Brent crude falling over 1% [3] - The actual impact on oil prices is driven by expectations of sanctions being relaxed, despite Russian oil exports remaining uninterrupted [3] - The feasibility of a ceasefire remains uncertain, as geopolitical tensions persist, which could lead to a rebound in oil prices if negotiations fail [3] Group 2: Gold Market - Gold prices have decreased by 0.5%, influenced by easing geopolitical tensions and market speculation about a potential 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September [4] - The introduction of new tariffs on steel and aluminum by the Trump administration could reignite inflation, which may enhance gold's appeal as a safe-haven asset [4] - The current decline in gold prices is viewed as a short-term reaction, with long-term factors such as interest rate cuts and geopolitical risks likely to support future price increases [4] Group 3: Copper Market - Despite a recent decline in copper prices, demand from India is expected to support long-term growth, with projections indicating that copper prices may strengthen by 2026 due to supply disruptions and increased demand from renewable energy [6] - India's infrastructure development and data center construction are anticipated to drive copper demand, while declining ore grades and rising development costs pose challenges for new mining projects [6] - The current price correction in copper is seen as an opportunity for long-term investors, particularly those with resources in India [6]

Core Insights - The Asian Development Bank (ADB) has revised its economic growth forecasts for Central Asia and the Caucasus, increasing the expected growth rates for 2025 and 2026 to 5.5% and 5.1% respectively, driven by anticipated oil production growth and stable domestic demand [1] - Conversely, the ADB has downgraded the economic growth forecasts for the Asia-Pacific region for 2025 and 2026 to 4.7% and 4.6% respectively, citing global trade uncertainties, reduced exports, and weak domestic demand as primary factors [1] - The region is also facing additional risks such as localized armed conflicts and supply chain disruptions [1]

Market Overview - The gold market faced resistance around $3,400 last week due to significantly higher-than-expected July PPI data [1] - The meeting between Trump and Putin increased the likelihood of a resolution to the Russia-Ukraine conflict, which may weaken geopolitical support for gold [2][3] - Domestic investors continued to realize gains in gold amid a favorable equity market backdrop [1] Economic Indicators - The U.S. July CPI remained steady at 2.7% year-on-year, matching the previous value, while the core CPI rose from 2.9% to 3.1%, supported by rising service costs [1] - The July PPI surged to 3.3% year-on-year, significantly exceeding the market expectation of 2.5%, with core PPI also rising to 3.7% [3] - The increase in PPI indicates potential upward pressure on inflation, with expectations for continued inflationary trends due to tariffs on imported goods [1][3] Monetary Policy - U.S. Treasury Secretary Becerra suggested a potential rate cut of over 150 basis points, with an initial cut of 50 basis points expected in September [2][3] - This statement reflects increasing political pressure on the Federal Reserve from the Trump administration [2] Geopolitical Developments - The recent U.S.-Russia summit in Alaska has marginally increased expectations for a ceasefire in Ukraine, with further diplomatic engagements planned [2][3] - Ukrainian President Zelensky is scheduled to visit Washington, indicating ongoing negotiations for a peace framework [3] Investment Trends - Following the U.S. clarification that gold would not be subject to tariffs, COMEX gold net longs were reduced, while European and American gold ETFs saw net inflows [2] - The increase in mini trust investments by individual investors outpaced that of SPDR, indicating a shift in investment dynamics [2]

花旗最新通胀周报显示，关税对消费价格的冲击并非没有发生，而是以一种比市场预期更缓慢、更持久的形式出现。 尽管自春季以来美国实施了多轮关税上调，但在过去4-5个月的通胀数据中，其对消费品价格的直接推动作用远比预期要小。7月份的通胀数据虽 然有所走强（核心CPI月度增长0.3%，符合预期），但其主要驱动力来自服务业，而非商品。花旗预计7月核心PCE环比增长为0.27%，年率将升 至2.9%。 报告明确指出，那种市场担心的"最坏情况"——即因预期成本上升而导致商品价格出现迅速、大规模、普遍性上涨的局面——已经得以避免。 其核心原因在于疲软的终端需求。在需求不振的背景下，企业被迫在更长的时间内自行吸收关税成本，以避免因大幅提价而失去客户。这种策略 虽然暂时压制了CPI数据，但代价是企业利润受到挤压，并可能反过来进一步拖累未来的总需求。因此，关税的影响并非消失，而是被拉长了战 线。 未来数月是关键窗口期：关注服装、汽车和电子产品 花旗强调，8月至10月的通胀数据将是对关税传导动态的"最大考验"。该行框架表明，这一时期商品价格上涨的风险显著增加，主要基于以下几 点： 据追风交易台消息，花旗在最新研报中表示，最坏的"通胀闪 ...

Core Points - The Central Bank of Mauritania (BCM) has significantly reduced its inflation forecast, noting a decline in domestic inflation from 3.0% in July 2024 to 1.3% in July 2025, indicating a clear downward trend in inflation [1] - The BCM's monetary policy committee decided to maintain the main interest rates, with the benchmark rate at 6%, the lending facility rate at 6.5%, and the deposit facility rate at 2% [2] - This decision aims to consolidate economic stability, further support price stability, and allow room for future monetary policy adjustments [2]

Market Overview - US stock market showed mixed results with the Dow Jones down by 34.30 points (0.08%) closing at 44911.82, while the Nasdaq rose by 0.03% to 21629.77, and the S&P 500 fell by 0.01% to 6449.15 [1] - Major tech stocks had varied performances, with Tesla up 1.4%, Nvidia up 0.8%, and Meta down 2.3% [1] - The solar energy sector saw significant gains, with SunRun and First Solar rising by 11.3% and 9.6% respectively, following new federal tax credit regulations [1] Economic Indicators - The Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index increased by 0.2%, with notable gains from Bilibili (over 2%), XPeng, NetEase, and NIO (over 1%) [2] - Recent data indicated a rise in retail sales, but overall consumer confidence was negatively impacted by increasing inflation concerns [2] - The 2-year and 10-year US Treasury yields rose by 1.3 basis points to 3.77% and 4.33% respectively, reflecting market expectations of a potential interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve [2] Federal Reserve Insights - Morgan Stanley suggested that the Federal Reserve may keep its benchmark interest rate unchanged this year, but weak employment data in August could prompt action in the next meeting [3] - Investors are closely monitoring the upcoming Federal Reserve meeting in Jackson Hole, where Chairman Powell is expected to provide insights on economic outlook and policy framework [2][3] Industry Developments - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology reported that from 2016 to 2020, a total of 16.5 billion yuan in subsidies were issued for new energy vehicles, with Beijing New Energy receiving approximately 555.55 million yuan, accounting for over 30% of the total [11] - The tax authorities disclosed two tax evasion cases in the "new three samples" sector (electric vehicles, lithium batteries, photovoltaic products), highlighting ongoing compliance issues despite supportive policies [12][13] Company Announcements - China Heavy Industry announced the acceptance of its application for voluntary delisting, while China Shipbuilding will resume trading on August 19 [28] - BYD's public relations manager emphasized the importance of healthy competition in the automotive market, advocating for a focus on development rather than negative rivalry [20]

Group 1 - Federal Reserve Chairman Powell's speech at the Jackson Hole Economic Symposium is anticipated to be a critical policy statement, influencing global asset pricing [1][2][3] - Current market expectations indicate an over 85% probability of a rate cut in September, but the unexpected 0.9% month-on-month increase in July PPI has raised inflation concerns [1][2] - Powell faces the challenge of balancing persistent inflation against economic growth pressures, with the recent PPI increase driven by rising energy prices and supply chain costs [1][2][3] Group 2 - Market participants are looking for clear signals from Powell regarding the initiation of a rate cut cycle, while also being cautious about inflation uncertainties [2][3] - If Powell emphasizes data dependency and shows caution regarding PPI fluctuations, it may suggest a modest rate cut of only 25 basis points [2][3] - Conversely, if he downplays short-term inflation volatility and focuses on cooling labor markets and slowing economic momentum, a more aggressive easing signal could emerge [2][3] Group 3 - The implications of Powell's speech are significant for emerging markets, as it will directly impact capital flows, currency stability, and economic growth prospects [3][4] - A clear signal of a rate cut could lead to three benefits for emerging markets: narrowing interest rate differentials, a weaker dollar, and reduced financing costs for dollar-denominated debt [3][4] - However, if Powell conveys a hawkish stance on inflation, emerging markets may face challenges such as capital outflows, currency depreciation, and worsening growth outlooks [4] Group 4 - Investors should focus not only on the likelihood of a rate cut but also on Powell's assessment of inflation resilience and growth risks, as well as the Fed's independence amid political pressures [5] - Understanding the underlying logic of the Fed's policy decisions is crucial for navigating asset pricing in an uncertain environment [5]