Group 1 - The US stock market saw a broad increase, with the Nasdaq, Dow Jones, and S&P 500 indices rising by 0.57%, 0.44%, and 0.39% respectively [3] - The healthcare sector led the performance among US industries, with a gain of 3.73%, followed by utilities at 2.76% and information technology at 1.48% [3][21] - The pharmaceutical sector experienced significant stock price increases following an agreement between major US pharmaceutical companies and former President Trump to lower drug prices [5] Group 2 - The US government officially entered a shutdown on October 1, which has raised market risk aversion and led to a historic high in gold prices [4] - OpenAI's release of its advanced video generation model Sora 2.0 and new partnerships with South Korean companies have positively impacted the tech sector, particularly chip stocks [4] - The Brent crude oil price has been negatively affected by OPEC+ production increase expectations, while LME cobalt, copper, and COMEX gold saw significant price increases [3][13] Group 3 - The outlook for the Chinese stock market remains positive, with expectations for more policy support following the upcoming 20th Central Committee meeting [6] - The macroeconomic environment indicates a focus on liquidity, with expectations for a bullish stock market as fundamentals gradually improve [6]

Core Viewpoint - Silver has outperformed gold this year, with a price increase of over 70%, compared to gold's approximately 54% rise, and has recently surpassed $50 per ounce for the first time in history [1][5][10]. Market Performance - As of October 9, the spot silver price reached $50.66 per ounce, marking a 3.72% increase [1]. - Silver's market capitalization has exceeded that of Bitcoin, reaching $2.667 trillion, while Bitcoin's market cap stands at $2.362 trillion [3][4]. - This year, silver's performance has been notably strong, with a nearly 15% outperformance over gold, making it the largest annual increase since 1979 [4]. Factors Driving Silver Prices - The surge in silver prices is attributed to rising industrial demand, particularly in sectors such as solar panels and semiconductors [6]. - Increased risk aversion has led investors to shift from gold to silver, as the gold market appears crowded [7]. - Significant inflows into Exchange-Traded Products (ETPs) have supported the recent price increases, alongside strong seasonal demand from India [7][10]. Institutional Outlook - Institutions have raised their price forecasts for silver, with Citibank setting a target price of $55 per ounce for the next three months [10]. - Six major A-share companies related to silver have seen institutional investors increase their holdings by over 400 million shares [10]. - Analysts from Saxo Bank predict that silver prices could rise to $55 per ounce within the next six to nine months, driven by structural demand in solar energy and electric vehicles [10]. Supply and Demand Dynamics - The silver market has experienced a supply shortage in recent years, with increasing demand from industries such as electric vehicles, AI, semiconductors, and 5G technology [10]. - The chief analyst at Guoxin Futures suggests that ongoing monetary policy easing and geopolitical uncertainties will continue to support silver prices [11].

展望未来，金瑞期货表示，短期贵金属价格仍将保持偏强，但预计市场波动将同步放大，建议维持逢低 做多策略。 北京时间10月9日，国际现货白银价格加速上涨，历史首次突破50美元/盎司。Wind数据显示，截至北京 时间20:47，伦敦现货白银涨超2%，最高触及50.159美元/盎司。 金瑞期货表示，今日金银价格上涨主要是由两个因素驱动。一是美联储降息预期持续发酵。美联储公布 的9月议息会议纪要显示，联储官员多数支持今年四季度继续降息。降息预期的落地，将会继续推动美 元与美债利率的走弱，利好金银价格。二是近期美国政府停摆、法国政局动荡、国际贸易局势仍存不确 定性、美联储独立性受到挑战、多国主权债务问题恶化等因素推动避险情绪的发酵，同样对贵金属价格 构成利好。 ...

技术面：周线上，上周行情强势上行且收阳线，显示行情强势。日线上，上一个交易日行情强势走高且收大阳线，暗示短期金 价仍有走高的机会。4小时线上，行情沿着20日均线走高，短期关注行情回调测试下方4017美元一线支撑情况。 原油方面： 首先，近期美国、以色列以及哈马斯方面都释放信号表示，加沙战争已经结束，这将短期推动原油供给中断风险降温，短期不 利于原油价格走高。 其次，产油国们大概率维持高产量。此前欧佩克+在10月份的会议上维持小幅增产的产量政策，同时俄罗斯副总理诺瓦克表示， 俄罗斯将逐步增加石油产量，暗示原油供给端大概率维持在较高水平。 最后，需求端看，美国政府持续停摆，虽然部分经济数据暂缓公布，但是市场对美国经济前景比较悲观，这将不利于原油需求 的改善。 黄金方面： 美国总统特朗普近期宣布以色列和哈马斯均已签署和平计划的第一阶段协议。特朗普更是表示他有可能在近期前往中东，甚至 考虑去加沙。加沙的停火将在短期内令地缘摩擦有所降温。 不过近期避险情绪并没有明显降温。一方面是在近期第六轮投票表决中，美国参议院再次否决了两党的拨款法案，美国政府继 续停摆；另一方面，俄乌在近期并没有明显降温的迹象，暗示避险情绪难以降温 ...

日内收盘，沪金跳涨4.82%，报收914.32元/克。 期货公司观点 广发期货： 今日美联储会议纪要公布，多数官员认为年内进一步宽松可能合适，但对降息速度分歧显著，利好金银 价格。 另一方面，美国联邦政府时隔近七年再度"停摆"。数十万联邦雇员将被迫无薪休假，部分公共服务或暂 停、延迟，经济数据发布将受到影响。此前，美国两党因医保福利方面分歧，未能就新的临时拨款法案 达成一致。 美国政府关门，法国政局动荡，美联储独立性问题、特朗普贸易政策前景以及地缘政治的不稳定导致市 场不确定性增加，避险情绪提升也使黄金受益。 目前在美国就业市场下行风险增加的情况下，美联储政策路径呈现"预期强化-独立性受挫"的双重特征 从而打压美元指数，同时欧美国家政治局势动荡使股市风险偏好下降从而增加机构投资者对贵金属避险 的配置需求带来价格不断抬升。美联储决议如期降息 25 个 BP 对于未来宽松步伐仍较谨慎需要基于数 据决策，本次市场解读偏中性消化后未来分歧或更剧烈使行情走势反复。短期美国政府"关门"和海外政 局动荡等风险升温，黄金维持高位震荡波动率或再次上升，单边择机逢低买入或买入虚值看涨期权代替 多头。 ...

中辉有色观点 | 中辉有色观点 | | | | --- | --- | --- | | 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑 | | 黄金 | | 美国政府停摆、法国总理上任不足一月辞职、日本政治不确定性共同推高了避险情 | | ★★★ | 跳空高开 | 绪。短期沪金或挑战 910 位置，短线追高需要控制节奏仓位。中长期黄金支撑逻辑 | | | | 不变，降息周期开启，地缘重塑，央行买黄金，黄金战略配置价值不变。 | | | | 白银跟随黄金、铜等市场大幅波动，短期情绪高涨。全球政策刺激明显，白银需求 | | 白银 | 跳空高开 | 坚挺，供需缺口明显，白银长期看多逻辑不变。黄金等品种波动会白银盘面波动有 | | ★★ | | 冲击。短线可试多，长线长期持有 | | | | 宏微共振，投机资金涌入铜市，伦铜创年内新高，节后沪铜或跟涨高开。建议铜前 | | 铜 | | 期多单继续持有，新多单等待回调企稳再入场，铜作为中美博弈的重要战略资源和 | | ★★ | 长期持有 | 贵金属的平替资产配置，在铜精矿紧张和绿色铜需求爆发背景下，长期看好。 | | | | 国庆假期，伦锌震荡走强，伦锌库存不足 4 万吨，软挤仓风险 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Report's Core View - The crude oil 2511 contract is expected to run weakly, with short - term weak oscillation, medium - term oscillation, and an intraday decline [1][5]. 3. Summary According to Related Contents a. Price Movement and View Classification - For price movement calculation, for varieties with night trading, the night - trading closing price is the starting price; for those without, the previous day's closing price is used. The daily daytime closing price is the end price to calculate the rise - fall range [2]. - A decline greater than 1% is considered a fall, a decline of 0 - 1% is weak oscillation, a rise of 0 - 1% is strong oscillation, and a rise greater than 1% is an increase. Strong/weak oscillation only applies to intraday views, not short - and medium - term views [3][4]. b. Crude Oil Market Analysis - Core logic: During the National Day holiday, the unexpected shutdown of the US federal government led to a significant increase in global financial market risk - aversion sentiment. Gold futures strengthened, and other commodities were generally under pressure. Eight OPEC+ oil - producing countries decided to increase production by 137,000 barrels per day in November, increasing the supply pressure in the oil market. Although eight foreign ministers called for an end to the Gaza war, Israel's combat state remains unchanged. The US WTI and Brent crude oil futures prices dropped by about 1% during the holiday. With geopolitical premium support weaker than systematic risks, the domestic crude oil 2511 contract is expected to show a weakly oscillating trend on the first trading day after the holiday [5].

后续应聚焦在美国政府停摆解决情况。如果美国政府停摆问题能够得到妥善解决，市场的避险情绪可能 会有所缓解，这可能会对金价产生一定的短线压力。但如果停摆持续时间延长，或者后续再次出现类似 情况，避险情绪将继续支撑金价上涨。另外，俄乌冲突、中东、南美局势等地缘政治热点地区的变化也 将持续影响黄金价格。 来源：新浪网 【免责声明】本文仅代表作者本人观点，与和讯网无关。和讯网站对文中陈述、观点判断保持中立，不 对所包含内容的准确性、可靠性或完整性提供任何明示或暗示的保证。请读者仅作参考，并请自行承担 全部责任。邮箱：news_center@staff.hexun.com 光大： 国庆期间，纽约期金首次触及4000美元/盎司整数关口，现货同步创历史新高至3980美元/盎司美元附 近，金银比最低跌至81附近。外盘黄金异常强势，主要基于美国政府停摆引发的避险需求持续升温。美 国政府停摆影响是多方面的。一是重要经济数据发布中断。非农、CPI等关键经济数据延迟发布，将无 法对美联储官员的货币政策作出有效指引，但政府停摆对经济潜在的影响，反而强化市场对降息的预 期，美联储10月降息概率超90%。二是，美元信用削弱。政府停摆意味着美 ...

各位朋友早，我是帮主郑重，刚盯着盘面就瞅见个有意思的动静——国际金价早盘突然往下跳，COMEX黄金期货跌超0.7%，这一下可不是平白无故的，背 后藏着条刚出来的关键消息。 做了20年财经记者，我太懂黄金的"性子"了，它就像个"避险晴雨表"，地缘上一紧张就往上冲，一旦局势松口气，它就容易往下走。今儿这波跳水，正好跟 哈马斯同意加沙停火的消息对上了——埃及那边说，以色列和哈马斯9号就要签停火协议，这消息一出来，市场里揣着的"避险心"就松了大半，黄金自然跟 着往下调。 可能有人问，这跳水要不要慌？我这做中长线的得说句实在的：别盯着早盘这一下波动就乱了阵脚。短期跳水是"避险情绪退潮"的反应，但黄金的长期走 势，从来不是单靠一条停火消息定的——后面协议能不能稳落地、地缘会不会再出变数，还有全球货币政策的节奏，这些才是该盯着的核心。 我是帮主郑重，行情里的波动看着热闹，其实都有门道。今儿这波黄金跳水，更像给咱们提个醒：看资产别只盯盘面，得往消息背后的逻辑挖。后面金价怎 么走，咱们接着慢慢瞧。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The ongoing "shutdown" crisis in the U.S. government has heightened expectations for interest rate cuts, leading to increased risk aversion in the market, as evidenced by the surge in gold prices and strong performance in major overseas stock markets, including Chinese concept stocks [1]. Market Performance Summary - **Gold Prices**: COMEX gold rose from $3883.9 to $4039.9, marking a 4.02% increase during the holiday period [1]. - **Copper Prices**: COMEX copper increased from $4.8810 to $5.0670, reflecting a 3.81% rise [1]. - **Aluminum Prices**: LME aluminum prices went up from $2664.5 to $2750.5, a 3.23% increase [1]. - **Stock Indices**: The DAX 30 index rose from 23775.12 to 24597.13, a 3.46% increase, while the Nasdaq increased from 22591.154 to 23043.379, a 2.00% rise [1]. - **Oil Prices**: Brent crude oil decreased slightly from $66.78 to $66.08, a 1.05% drop, while U.S. crude oil fell from $63.18 to $62.19, a 1.57% decrease [2]. Commodity Performance Summary - **Palm Oil**: Palm oil prices increased from 4369 to 4546, a 4.05% rise [1]. - **Soybean Oil**: CBOT soybean oil rose from 49.67 to 51.34, a 3.36% increase [1]. - **Natural Gas**: U.S. natural gas prices increased from $3.253 to $3.341, a 2.71% rise [1]. - **Zinc Prices**: LME zinc prices rose from $2917.5 to $2995.0, a 2.66% increase [1].