王爷说财经讯：黄金六天狂跌8%！！2025年10月30日，黄金市场炸锅了！ 六天时间，伦敦金从4381美元的历史高点狂跌8%，一度跌破4100美元关口。 国内金店更狠，周大福、老庙黄金一夜之间每克降价57-83元，手里有黄金ETF的朋友，账户直接缩水4%以上！有位囤了5公斤黄金的投资者，一天就亏了23 万，直接懵了！ 黄金这波暴跌到底是牛市彻底结束，还是主力洗盘？手里的黄金该割肉、持有还是抄底？今天这篇文章把底层逻辑说透，看完你就不用慌了！ 01、黄金疯狂牛市后的突然急刹车！ 可就在10月21日，行情突然反转，六天跌去8%，从人人追捧的香饽饽变成了烫手山芋。这波急跌到底为啥来？ 先回顾下这波黄金行情有多疯。 2025年以来，国际金价累计暴涨52%，创下1979年以来最强表现，国内金饰价格更是突破1200元/克大关。 02、黄金暴跌的真相是什么？ 很多人以为是牛市到头了，但其实这波下跌是多重短期因素撞在一起，跟基本面没关系： 第一、避险情绪降温+获利回吐！ 俄乌停火预期升温，中美经贸摩擦也开始缓和，之前躲在黄金里的避险资金开始撤场。 背后是资金疯狂涌入：三季度全球黄金需求飙到1313吨，创下单季历史纪录，光黄金 ...

周三，在避险情绪和美联储降息预期的双重推动下，金价一路狂飙近2%，不仅突破4000美元整数关 口，更是一度触及4030美元高点。然而转折出现在美联储决议后，虽然如期降息25个基点，但鲍威尔主 席的"鹰派"表态让多头措手不及。金价应声跳水，不仅回吐全部涨幅，更最低下探至3916美元，最终收 于3930美元附近，单日跌幅达0.57%。这场4000美元关口的争夺战，最终以空头反攻告终。 当前黄金价格在3940美元附近窄幅震荡，市场交投情绪谨慎。今日焦点锁定中美领导人在韩国首尔的会 晤结果——若贸易谈判陷入僵局，黄金将获得短期避险支撑；反之若传出利好，叠加12月降息预期降 温，金价恐承压下行。回顾美联储11月会议，如期降息25个基点后，鲍威尔释放关键信号：12月可能暂 停降息。此言一出，市场剧烈波动，美元黄金双双下跌，黄金从4030美元高位回落至4917美元，完全回 吐周三涨幅。但值得注意的是，当前下跌仅是短期波动，黄金整体仍维持多头格局下的低位震荡。本周 剩余两个交易日，只要不出现大幅下挫，金价有望在低位企稳反弹。若后续能形成趋势性动能，我们将 迎来新的单边行情。 尽管短线波动剧烈，但市场对黄金的避险需求和多头逻辑 ...

Core Viewpoint - Bitcoin experienced a decline following hawkish comments from Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell, dropping 3.1% to below $108,000, before recovering slightly to trade around $111,315 [1][3]. Group 1: Federal Reserve Impact - The Federal Reserve announced a 0.25 percentage point cut in the benchmark interest rate to 3.75%-4%, marking the second consecutive rate cut, but Powell cautioned against assuming further cuts in the future [3]. - Following Powell's remarks, the probability of a 25 basis point cut in December dropped from nearly 100% to about 60% [3]. - Powell's comments triggered risk-off sentiment in the market, impacting Bitcoin's performance despite some gains in tech stocks [3]. Group 2: Market Dynamics - Bitcoin's decline accelerated after the U.S.-China summit, although selling pressure eased quickly, indicating mixed market reactions [3]. - The overall cryptocurrency market remains bearish, with Bitcoin's decline for the week at 4%, reflecting uncertainty about liquidity conditions and risk appetite [4]. - Despite the bearish trend, there are signs of recovering optimism, as the long-to-short ratio for Bitcoin has risen above 2.0, and open interest increased from $34 billion to $35 billion, suggesting traders are increasing leveraged positions in anticipation of a rebound [4]. Group 3: Technical Analysis - Technically, the 4-hour and daily RSI readings remain in bearish territory, indicating that corrections may not be fully over [4]. - For Bitcoin to sustain a recovery, it must break through the resistance cluster formed by the 20, 50, and 100 EMA around $112,000, which could shift short-term sentiment to bullish [4]. - Conversely, if momentum weakens again, the next downside target would be last week's low of $106,600, while a successful rebound could see prices return to $116,000 or even $118,000 with increased buying support [4][5].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates that following hawkish remarks from Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell, Bitcoin experienced a significant decline, with market expectations for further rate cuts this year diminishing [1][3] - Bitcoin dropped by 3.1%, falling below $108,000, before the decline moderated [1] - The Federal Reserve announced a 25 basis point rate cut to a range of 3.75%-4%, marking the second consecutive rate cut [1] Group 2 - Markets' CFO Charlie Sherry noted that Powell's comments triggered some risk-averse sentiment, compounded by the meeting between the U.S. and Chinese leaders, which led to market volatility [3] - While technology stocks are rising, cryptocurrencies have not followed suit, indicating relative weakness and hesitation in digital assets [3]

其美联储目前降息落地，金价回落完毕，日内将再度等待中美会晤而再度利空金价回落一次，而使得利 空继续消化，那么短期来看，金价偏向筑底盘整，多头也将随时回归，之后唯一剩下的风险利空事件就 是美国政府停摆的结束。 今日周四，黄金开盘再度先行走强，继续受到止跌形态的看涨买盘，以及受到昨日特朗普：未能协调好 会晤时间、美国宣布新一轮对俄制裁，重点针对两家石油公司等产生的避险情绪，同时，虽然鲍威尔直 言12月降息不是板上钉钉，但对市场来说，也是概率很高，要不然怎么不说12月降息概率很低。并且美 联储米兰还支持降息50BP，故此对于后市来说，金价仍处于降息周期中，而当下只需等待短线的利空 出尽。 而停摆的打压也是一时的，所以，当下而言，激进者可开始选择看涨入场，而稳健者可待下周或者触及 60日均线支撑后再度入场看涨。 日图；金价昨日收取倒垂上影线形态，再度展现止跌信号和止跌看涨预期，虽然附图指标维持空头信 号，主图走势处于中轨下方，空头占据优势，但其ZZ指标显示触底，K线又连续收取止跌形态，布林带 趋向缩口，这暗示后市方向仍偏向上行，下方空间有限，所以，当下，要么维持筑底震荡之后再度攀 升，要么进一步走低收取触底回升或触及 ...

鲍威尔的偏"鹰"言论令市场避险情绪升温，今日亚市早盘，金价小幅拉升，截至发稿时涨幅超过 0.60%。不过，金价的涨幅可能会受到抑制，澳新银行研究部分析师在一份报告中称，在贸易谈判前景 乐观的情况下，该贵金属的避险买盘料将受到抑制。 日韩股市则走势分化。今日早盘，日经225指数开盘报51146.27点，下跌0.31%。韩国综合股价指数开盘 报4105.95点，上涨0.6%。 来源：湖北日报 | 1小时爆仓 | $3242.13万 | 4小时爆仓 | $4902.28万 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 多車 | $2880.05万 | 多車 | $3415.26万 | | 空車 | $362.08万 | 空車 | $1487.02万 | | 12小时爆仓 | $5.28亿 | 24小时爆仓 | $5.88亿 | | 念東 | $4.22亿 | 参東 | $4.55 Z | | 空单 | $1.06 Z | 空单 | $1.33 乙 | | | 最近24小时,全球共有133.621人被爆仓,爆仓总全额为$5.88亿 | | | | | 最大单笔爆仓单发生在 Bybit - BTCUSD ...

来源：金都财神A 【消息面】 周三黄金上演了一场惊心动魄的过山车行情。亚欧盘时段，金价在避险情绪和美联储降息预期双重推动下，一度狂飙近2%，成功站上4000美元整 数关口，盘中最高触及4030美元。然而好景不长，美联储如期降息25个基点，但美联储主席鲍威尔在新闻发布会上的"鹰派"表态如同一盆冷水浇 灭了多头热情，金价迅速回吐全部涨幅并转跌，最低下探3916.56美元，收报3930美元附近。 本交易日重头戏无疑是中美领导人在韩国首尔的会晤。若贸易谈判未能取得突破性进展，或将为金价提供短期避险支撑；反之，若谈判进展乐 观，叠加12月降息预期进一步降温，金价恐面临更大下行压力。 1，黄金近期的波幅较大，周二黄金大幅下跌133美金，周三黄金宽幅震荡，走过山车走势，亚欧盘黄金震荡上行，晚间涨至4033.2美元回落，凌 晨2点，美联储公布降息25个基点，黄金涨至4006再次回落，收在3929.6美元，日线收上影阴线，截止当前，日线已连续4个交易日收阴线，5日10 日均线向下，MACD指标绿色空头动能增量，走势偏空。 2，2小时，黄金早间上涨中轨3966.4美元回落，当前运行在3936美元附近，KDJ指标高位死叉，附图拐头 ...

Core Insights - The trend of global central banks increasing gold reserves continues, with the People's Bank of China having added gold for 11 consecutive months, surpassing 2300 tons in total holdings [2] - The gold ETF market has seen record inflows, with a total of $26 billion in the third quarter of 2025, bringing total assets under management to $472 billion, nearing historical peaks [2] - The recent Federal Reserve interest rate cut and the end of balance sheet reduction are expected to support gold prices, alongside ongoing demand from central banks and ETFs [1][2] Market Performance - As of October 30, 2025, the gold ETF fund (159937) decreased by 1.07%, with a latest price of 8.58 yuan, while it had a 5.27% increase over the past month [1] - The trading volume for the gold ETF was 619 million yuan, with an average daily trading volume of 2.406 billion yuan over the past month, ranking it among the top three comparable funds [1] Future Outlook - The core logic driving gold prices upward remains unchanged, with ongoing uncertainties in U.S. trade policy and a weak dollar expected to persist [3] - The trend of de-dollarization and adjustments in global central bank foreign exchange reserves are anticipated to increase gold allocation demand [3] - The gold ETF has seen a net outflow of 381 million yuan recently, but over the past ten trading days, there were net inflows on six days, totaling 3.455 billion yuan [3]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the content. 2. Core Views - The overall supply - demand situation still suppresses oil prices, and the short - term market is weighing the impact of US sanctions on Russian oil companies and OPEC+ production plans [1]. - The upcoming Sino - US summit may lead to a continuous decline in risk aversion, but gold buying power remains strong, and gold may oscillate at a high level in the medium term [1]. - PTA has weak upward momentum due to weakening supply - demand expectations and crude oil adjustments [3]. - Rubber has a low - position bullish outlook as Chinese rubber inventories continue to decline and macro - pressure eases [3]. - The hog futures price has rebounded, with short - term support but limited upward momentum, and breeders should hedge according to the slaughter rhythm [4]. - Palm oil is under pressure and expected to run weakly in the short term due to increased supply expectations and loose domestic supply [4]. - Soybean No. 2 may oscillate strongly in the short term, and Soybean No. 1 will run stably with an oscillating trend [5]. - The bond market has increased bullish factors but is difficult to operate, with a medium - term slightly bullish oscillating trend [5]. - Silver is bullish in the long - term, oscillating in the short - term, and there are opportunities to go long [6]. - Methanol's 01 contract is expected to oscillate in the short term, and it is recommended to go long on the short - term [6]. - Soda ash's 01 contract is expected to oscillate in the short term, and it is recommended to wait and see or go long on the callback [7]. - L2601 contract of plastic is expected to oscillate slightly strongly in the short term, and it is recommended to go long on the short - term [8]. 3. Summary by Commodity Crude Oil - EIA report on October 24: commercial crude oil inventory decreased by 6.858 million barrels to 416 million barrels (a 1.62% decline), gasoline inventory decreased by 5.941 million barrels, and US domestic crude oil production increased by 15,000 barrels to 1.3644 million barrels per day. Western Russian port exports are expected to be about 2.33 million barrels per day in October [1]. - US crude oil inventory decline and optimistic trade talk prospects led to rising international oil prices, but supply - demand still suppresses prices [1]. Gold - Sino - US summit is scheduled for October 30. Risk aversion may decline, but gold buying power is strong. Gold may oscillate at a high level in the medium term [1]. PTA - PTA social inventory is 3.1413 million tons, a decrease of 50,300 tons from the previous period. PTA capacity utilization is 75.98%, and polyester comprehensive capacity utilization is around 87.51% [3]. - Polyester has low inventory and stable demand, but PTA has weak upward momentum due to new device commissioning and expected supply - demand weakening [3]. Rubber - Thai raw material glue prices: 55.5 Thai baht per kilogram for glue and 53.25 Thai baht per kilogram for cup - rubber. Chinese natural rubber social inventory is 1.0389 million tons, a 1% decline [3]. - Chinese rubber inventory decline and reduced macro - pressure support a low - position bullish view [3]. Hog - On October 29, the national average pork price was 18.03 yuan per kilogram, unchanged; egg price was 7.37 yuan per kilogram, a 0.3% decline [4]. - Hog prices showed a north - weak and south - strong pattern. Futures prices rebounded with short - term support but limited upward power [4]. Palm Oil - Pakistan is considering increasing Indonesian palm oil import quotas. In September 2025, Pakistan's palm oil import value reached $481 million, a significant increase from $251 million last year [4]. - GAPKI expects a 10% increase in Indonesian palm oil production in 2025, suppressing prices. Domestic supply is loose, and palm oil is under pressure in the short term [4]. Soybean - Rabobank expects Brazil's 2025/26 soybean production to be 177 million tons (a 3% increase), export volume to be 111 million tons (basically unchanged), and planting area to reach 48.8 million hectares (a 2% increase) [5]. - Soybean No. 2 may oscillate strongly in the short term, and Soybean No. 1 will run stably with an oscillating trend [5]. Short - term Treasury Bond - Shibor short - end varieties declined. Overnight decreased by 5.5 BP to 1.414%, 7 - day by 1.8 BP to 1.512%, 14 - day by 8.8 BP to 1.559%, and 1 - month by 0.1 BP to 1.556% [5]. - Loose funds are beneficial to the bond market, but it is difficult to operate, with a medium - term slightly bullish oscillating trend [5]. Silver - The Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points to 3.75% - 4.00% and will end balance - sheet reduction on December 1. Powell said further December rate cuts are not certain [6]. - Rate cuts increase risk appetite, making silver bullish in the long - term and oscillating in the short - term with limited downside [6]. Methanol - Jiangsu Taicang methanol price is 2210 yuan per ton, an increase of 3 yuan per ton. Domestic methanol weekly capacity utilization is 87.4% (a 2.13% decline), and downstream total capacity utilization is 75.11% (a 1.53% decline) [6]. - Methanol's 01 contract is expected to oscillate in the short term, with support at 2240. It is recommended to go long on the short - term [6]. Soda Ash - National heavy - duty soda ash mainstream price is 1275 yuan per ton. Weekly production is 740,500 tons (a 3.93% decline), and factory inventory is 1.7021 million tons (a 0.09% increase) [7]. - Soda ash's 01 contract is expected to oscillate in the short term, with support at 1240. It is recommended to wait and see or go long on the callback [7]. Plastic - North China LLDPE mainstream price is 7085 yuan per ton, a decrease of 9 yuan per ton. LLDPE weekly production is 309,100 tons (a 0.17% increase), and production enterprise inventory is 139,200 tons (a 27.65% decline) [8]. - L2601 contract is expected to oscillate slightly strongly in the short term, with support at 6980. It is recommended to go long on the short - term [8].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - The short - term tops of gold and silver formed last week are confirmed. COMEX gold broke below $4000 per ounce this week, rebounded above $4000 on the 29th, and investors should wait for stabilization and stay on the sidelines [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Content Market Performance - COMEX gold futures fell 1.04% to $3941.7 per ounce, and COMEX silver futures fell 0.1% to $47.275 per ounce. Shanghai gold rose 0.69% to 910.92 yuan per gram, and Shanghai silver rose 0.64% to 11265 yuan per kilogram [1]. Important Information - As of October 29, the holdings of the world's largest gold ETF, SPDR Gold Trust, decreased by 2.87 tons to 1036.05 tons, and the holdings of the world's largest silver ETF, iShares Silver Trust, remained unchanged at 15209.57 tons [1]. - On the 28th, after Hamas fired on Israeli troops in the Gaza Strip, Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu instructed the Israeli army to launch a strong strike on the Gaza Strip. On the 29th, the Israeli army resumed the cease - fire agreement after the attack [1]. - Chinese President will meet with the US President in Busan, South Korea on October 30 to exchange views on China - US relations and common concerns [1]. - The Fed announced a 25 - basis - point cut in the federal funds target rate to 3.75% - 4.00%, ending the balance - sheet reduction from December 1. Fed Chair Powell said a further rate cut in December is "far from a foregone conclusion" [1]. Market Logic - The news of the China - US summit on the 30th is conducive to easing global trade tensions. The resumption of firing between Israel and Hamas on the 28th may trigger risk - aversion sentiment. The US government shutdown continues. Technical factors and profit - taking led to the sharp decline of COMEX gold and silver last week, followed by a short - term stabilization. COMEX gold broke below $4000 per ounce this week, and silver also pulled back [1]. Trading Strategy - Wait for gold and silver to stabilize and stay on the sidelines as the short - term tops are confirmed and COMEX gold broke below $4000 per ounce this week [2].