Report Information - Report Title: Non-ferrous Metals Weekly Report [1] - Date: January 23, 2026 [2] - Researchers: Zhang Ping, Yu Feifei, Peng Jinglin [3] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - Aluminum prices are mainly driven by macro and capital factors. Short-term adjustments may be needed due to macro mood fluctuations and previous rapid price increases, but prices are likely to rise easily and fall hard. Nickel market is expected to have significant upward elasticity due to policy disturbances. Zinc prices may continue to show high-level oscillations, with limited continuous upward momentum [13][49][73] Summary by Metals Aluminum Market Review - This week, aluminum prices were strongly supported around 24,000 yuan. The overall market showed an external-strong and internal-weak pattern, with the import window closed. Alumina futures prices rebounded after a mid-week decline due to a mine accident in Guinea. Aluminum alloy followed the trend of Shanghai aluminum. High prices continued to suppress terminal demand, and inventory increased slightly compared to last week [8] Operation Suggestions - Although both domestic and overseas ore sectors were disturbed to some extent this week, ore prices remained weak. Alumina is expected to fluctuate widely at low levels under the pressure of an oversupply. The supply of electrolytic aluminum remained stable, and aluminum processing showed a slight recovery. Considering the current situation, short-term price adjustments may be needed, but prices are likely to rise easily and fall hard [13] Fundamental Changes - **Bauxite Market**: Domestic and overseas bauxite prices were weak. Some northern domestic mines reduced production due to weather and are gradually resuming work, while southern mines remained stable. Overseas, the bauxite market was quiet, and alumina plants had low purchasing willingness [14] - **Alumina**: Futures prices rebounded from a low level, but the oversupply situation remained unchanged. The weighted index of Shanghai Nonferrous Metals decreased slightly compared to last week, and the operating rate of domestic alumina plants decreased [18][19] - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: The profit level of the smelting industry remained high. The total industry cost decreased slightly, while the average profit increased [25] - **Aluminum Ingot Import and Export**: The import window remained closed. In December 2025, the net import of aluminum ingots increased [31] - **Aluminum Processing**: The operating rate of aluminum processing enterprises increased slightly, but different sectors showed different trends. Some sectors were affected by environmental protection, weather, and other factors, while others were supported by orders from specific fields [34] - **Inventory**: Aluminum ingot inventory increased slightly compared to last week, while aluminum rod inventory increased significantly [38][41] Nickel Market Review - Nickel prices strengthened again this week, maintaining a high-level wide-range oscillation pattern. Spot trading remained cold, and the import window was closed [45] Operation Suggestions - The expected shortage of nickel ore supply supported miners to continuously raise prices. Nickel iron prices continued to rise, while nickel salt prices weakened. Policy disturbances are expected to support the nickel market to maintain significant upward elasticity [48][49] Fundamental Changes - **Nickel Ore Market**: Prices in the Philippines and Indonesia increased significantly. The import volume of nickel ore in November 2025 decreased compared to the previous month but increased compared to the same period last year [50] - **Nickel Iron Market**: The production of nickel iron in China and Indonesia decreased in December 2025. The supply side continued to hold firm prices, and the demand side showed some activity but with differences between upstream and downstream [54] - **Electrolytic Nickel Market**: The production capacity of electrowon nickel was rapidly released. In December 2025, the monthly production of electrolytic nickel in China increased, and the import and export volumes also changed [61] - **Nickel Sulfate Market**: Nickel salt prices decreased slightly this week. The production of nickel sulfate in December 2025 decreased, and the industry's operating load remained at a certain level [65] - **Stainless Steel Market**: The inventory of the stainless steel market increased slightly, mainly due to the contradiction between rising futures prices and weak terminal demand [69] Zinc Market Review - The non-ferrous metals sector showed differentiation and high-level adjustments. Zinc prices at high levels showed a callback, and then strengthened in the second half of the week. The import window was not fully opened, and the spot premium decreased slightly [70][71] Operation Suggestions - The zinc concentrate market remained tight. The supply of zinc ore was affected by seasonal and overseas factors, and the processing fee was expected to remain low. The demand side was weak, and zinc prices were likely to oscillate at high levels with limited upward momentum [72][73] Fundamental Changes - **Supply Side**: The supply of domestic zinc ore was tight, and the import processing fee decreased. The production of zinc ingots in January is expected to increase slightly compared to December [76][77] - **Demand Side**: The operating rates of galvanizing, die-casting zinc alloy, and zinc oxide enterprises increased slightly, but overall demand was weak due to high zinc prices and environmental protection measures [78][79] - **Spot Market**: Domestic zinc inventory decreased slightly, while LME zinc inventory increased. The cash-3M spread of LME zinc remained in contango [80]

Group 1 - The non-ferrous metal sector continues its strong performance, with stocks like Huafeng Aluminum, Baiyin Nonferrous Metals, and Tongling Nonferrous Metals hitting the daily limit, indicating robust market interest [1] - The non-ferrous ETF, Huabao (159876), saw a maximum intraday increase of 3.55%, closing up 3.37%, with a significant net subscription of 55.2 million units, breaking its previous listing high [1] - Geopolitical risks are rising, contributing to increased safe-haven demand and pushing gold prices to a historical high of $4,950 per ounce, with domestic gold jewelry prices reaching 1,500 yuan per gram [3] Group 2 - The long-term outlook for gold prices remains strong due to several factors, including ongoing U.S. fiscal risks, strong global central bank demand for gold, and the expectation of continued interest rate cuts in the U.S. through 2026 [3] - The strong performance of non-ferrous metals is attributed to macro-financial policies and structural changes in supply and demand, particularly driven by emerging demands in AI and new energy sectors [3] - The Huabao non-ferrous ETF and its linked funds cover a wide range of metals, including copper, aluminum, gold, rare earths, and lithium, allowing investors to capture the overall sector's beta performance [3]

Core Insights - The recent surge in gold prices is attributed to heightened global risk aversion due to tensions in the Middle East, increased expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, and ongoing gold purchases by central banks, which collectively boost market sentiment [1] - Gold is viewed as a stable asset that does not rely on corporate performance or financial reports, making it a preferred choice for risk management and inflation protection during uncertain times [1] Investment Strategies - For ordinary investors, a conservative approach is recommended, such as dollar-cost averaging in gold, which helps to smooth out price fluctuations over time [1] - Investing in gold ETFs is suggested for better liquidity and ease of trading, while physical gold bars are recommended for those who prioritize security and long-term asset preservation [1] - The potential for gold to provide significant returns exists, but its primary role is to safeguard assets over the long term [1]

数据显示，1月23日上海黄金现货价格报价1110.80元/克，相较于期货主力价格（1115.64元/克）贴水 4.84元/克。 美国2025年第三季度GDP终值年化环比增长4.4%，高于4.3%的初值，创下近两年来最快增速。美联储 青睐的通胀指标——11月核心PCE物价指数同比上涨2.8%，环比上涨0.2%，均符合预期。美国上周初请 失业金人数20万人，低于预期的21万人。 美国总统特朗普表示，正在推进中的格陵兰岛协议将赋予美国"一切想要的军事进入权"。特朗普还威胁 称，如果欧洲国家因其与格陵兰岛相关的关税威胁而抛售美国资产，美方将进行"强烈报复"。对于美联 储主席人选，特朗普表示，很快就会公布，自己心中已有人选，已结束对美联储主席候选人的面试。 【机构观点】 恒泰期货：美联储降息预期+避险升温+央行购金 黄金短期震荡偏强 【黄金期货最新行情】 | 1月23日 | 收盘价（元/克） | 当日涨跌幅 | 成交量（手） | 持仓量（手） | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 沪金主力 | 1115.64 | 2.55% | 288050 | 206580 | 打开APP，查看更多 ...

【黄金期货行情表现】 1月23日，沪金主力暂报1115.64元/克，涨幅2.55%，今日沪金主力开盘价1087.00元/克，截至目前最高 1119.12元/克，最低1084.80元/克。 【宏观消息】 美国总统特朗普表示，正在推进中的格陵兰岛协议将赋予美国"一切想要的军事进入权"。特朗普还威胁 称，如果欧洲国家因其与格陵兰岛相关的关税威胁而抛售美国资产，美方将进行"强烈报复"。 美国2025年第三季度GDP终值年化环比增长4.4%，高于4.3%的初值，创下近两年来最快增速。美联储 青睐的通胀指标——11月核心PCE物价指数同比上涨2.8%，环比上涨0.2%，均符合预期。 【机构观点】 美国总统特朗普表示，正在推进中的格陵兰岛协议将赋予美国"一切想要的军事进入权"。特朗普还威胁 称，如果欧洲国家因其与格陵兰岛相关的关税威胁而抛售美国资产，美方将进行"强烈报复"。评：格陵 兰岛事件持续发酵，在避险情绪推动，美元指数下跌及美联储主席更迭等事件发酵下，黄金再度走高， 黄金不建议过分看多，注意管控风险，关注地缘扰动。 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - This week, macro shocks continued to provide safe - haven support for the precious metals market, leading to an upward - trending and volatile platinum - palladium market. The short - term risk - aversion sentiment is expected to remain high due to uncertainties such as the US tariff plan and Trump's stance on the Greenland acquisition. Supply is restricted by South Africa's power issues and Russia's export conditions, while demand for platinum may increase due to new EU emission standards and the development of new energy vehicles. In the long - term, the industrial logic of platinum and palladium will dominate trading, with a likely "platinum - strong, palladium - weak" market trend. The London platinum is expected to trade between $2500/oz and $2800/oz, and London palladium between $1800/oz and $2000/oz [7]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Week - to - Week Summary - Macro factors: The US tariff plan on eight European countries was postponed, but Trump's attitude towards Greenland acquisition is uncertain, keeping short - term risk - aversion high. South Africa's power company maintains load - shedding, limiting smelter short - term production. The weakening of the South African rand may suppress marginal supply in US dollars. Russia has no new export guidance, and the "east - bound sales priority" policy and sanctions continue to affect the palladium trade [7]. - Demand: The EU's new emission standards will increase platinum demand in automotive catalysts by about 450,000 ounces this year. Although global passenger car sales are slightly down, the growth of hybrid and hydrogen - fuel - cell commercial vehicles may improve platinum's long - term demand. The IEA's hydrogen outlook shows potential growth in PEM electrolyzer installations, providing potential support for platinum [7]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Markets - Price trends: The platinum - palladium market rose this week, with platinum showing stronger price elasticity due to supply - demand tightness. As of January 23, 2026, the Guangzhou Futures Exchange's platinum and palladium futures prices increased by 12.43% and 6.09% respectively [8][12]. - Net long positions: As of January 13, 2026, NYMEX platinum's net long positions decreased by 0.45% to 23,806 contracts, and palladium's net long positions decreased by 23.50% to - 2,890 contracts [17]. - Basis: The basis of NYMEX platinum and palladium futures contracts weakened this week [18]. - Inventory: As of January 22, 2026, NYMEX platinum inventory increased by 0.24% to 665,888.20 ounces, and palladium inventory increased by 2.54% to 216,266.31 ounces [25]. - Price ratios: The ratio of NYMEX platinum to COMEX gold has significantly increased compared to early 2025 [26]. - Correlation: The positive correlation between platinum prices, NYMEX platinum inventory, and the US dollar index has rebounded recently [31]. 3.3 Industry Supply and Demand - Trade: As of November 2025, platinum imports and exports decreased [36]. - Demand: The demand for platinum in automotive catalysts has weakened marginally, and the total global demand for platinum and palladium is slowly declining [41][46]. - Supply: Due to geopolitical conflicts and power issues, the global supply of platinum and palladium has decreased [52]. - Price difference: The price difference between domestic and international platinum and palladium markets has become more stable [57]. 3.4 Macro and Options - The US dollar index weakened this week under the impact of macro events [61].

Group 1: Report Overview - The precious metals market continued its upward trend this week, with the Greenland incident boosting market risk aversion, and domestic and international gold and silver prices hitting new all - time highs [7]. - The overall bullish logic for precious metals remains intact in the medium - to - long term, with a strategy of buying on dips recommended, while short - term high - level correction risks should be noted [7]. Group 2: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the report Group 3: Core View - The current US economic data generally meets market expectations. Under the assumption of stable inflation and employment data, the market expects the Fed to cut interest rates 2 - 3 times in the second half of the year. With the Fed's restart of the balance - sheet expansion plan, the bullish logic for precious metals remains unchanged in the context of loose liquidity and a gradual slowdown in economic data [7]. Group 4: Periodic and Spot Market - The precious metals market continued its strong upward trend due to macro - event shocks this week [8]. - As of January 23, 2026, the Shanghai silver main contract 2604 was reported at 24,965 yuan/kg, up 11.04% for the week; the Shanghai gold main contract 2604 was reported at 1,115.64 yuan/g, up 8.07% for the week [12]. - This week, the net position of foreign gold ETFs increased, while that of silver decreased. As of January 22, 2026, the SPDR gold ETF holding was reported at 1,079.66 tons, a 0.51% increase; the SLV silver ETF holding was reported at 16,104 tons, a 0.90% decrease [13][17]. - As of January 13, 2025 (latest), the net long positions of COMEX gold and silver both increased significantly. The COMEX gold net position was reported at 251,238 contracts, a 10.40% increase; the COMEX silver net position was reported at 32,060 contracts, a 9.53% increase [18][22]. - This week, the basis of gold and silver weakened. As of January 22, 2026, the basis of the Shanghai gold main contract was reported at - 14.58 yuan/g; the basis of the Shanghai silver main contract was reported at - 430 yuan/kg, showing a week - on - week weakening [23][27]. - This week, the gold and silver inventories of domestic and foreign exchanges continued to diverge. As of January 22, 2026, the COMEX gold inventory was reported at 36,144,279.82 ounces, a 0.19% decrease; the SHFE gold inventory was reported at 100,053 kg, a 2.46% increase. The COMEX silver inventory was reported at 426,476,499 ounces, a 2.5% decrease; the SHFE silver inventory was reported at 626,843 kg, a 1.10% increase [28][30]. Group 5: Industrial Supply - Demand Situation Silver Industry - As of December 2025, the import volumes of silver and silver ore sand both increased significantly. China's silver import volume was reported at 334,742.41 kg, a 27.03% increase; the import volume of silver ore sand and its concentrates was reported at 239,325,381 kg, a 32.29% increase [32][36]. - Downstream: Due to the increasing demand for silver in semiconductors, the production of integrated circuits continued to rise, and the year - on - year growth rate tended to be stable. As of December 2025, the monthly production of integrated circuits was reported at 4,810,000 units, and the year - on - year growth rate was reported at 12.9% [38][41]. Silver Supply - Demand - The silver supply - demand was in a tight - balance pattern. As of the end of 2024, the industrial demand for silver was reported at 680.5 million ounces, a 4% increase; the demand for coins and net bars was reported at 190.9 million ounces, a 22% decrease; the net investment demand for silver ETFs was reported at 61.6 million ounces, compared with - 37.6 million ounces in the same period of the previous year; the total demand for silver was reported at 1,164.1 million ounces, a 3% decrease [43][45]. - In 2025, the improvement in silver supply - demand was mainly due to the recovery of mine production and a slight increase in recycled silver. Investment and industrial demand declined slightly, significantly narrowing the market shortage. As of the end of 2024, the silver supply - demand gap was reported at - 148.9 million ounces, a 26% decrease. The World Silver Institute predicted that in 2025, the global total silver supply would increase by 3% to about 1,050 million ounces, the global total silver demand would decrease by 4% to about 1,120 million ounces, and the supply - demand gap was expected to narrow to about - 70 million ounces, a 53% decrease [50][52]. Gold Supply - Demand - The investment demand for gold ETFs increased significantly, and central banks of emerging countries continued to buy gold. In January 2026, the central banks of China and Turkey continued to buy about 0.93 tons and 3.0 tons of gold respectively [54][71]. Group 6: Macroeconomic and Options - This week, the US dollar index fluctuated weakly under the impact of macro - events [58]. - This week, the 10Y - 2Y US Treasury yield spread widened slightly, and the CBOE gold volatility increased significantly [63]. - This week, the US inflation - balanced interest rate rebounded slightly [67].

Economic Data Summary - The U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis reported that the annualized quarter-on-quarter real GDP for Q3 was 4.4%, slightly above market expectations and the previous revision of 4.3%, marking the fastest growth in two years [1][6] - Consumer spending in the last quarter increased by 3.5% on an annualized basis, with service spending achieving the fastest growth in three years and goods spending also accelerating compared to the previous quarter [1][6] - The final value of the core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index for Q3 was 2.9%, in line with expectations, indicating no significant increase in inflationary pressures [1][6] - Following a contraction of 0.6% in Q1, the real GDP rebounded strongly in Q2, growing by 3.8% [1][6] - The data for the first three quarters suggests an annualized growth rate of 2.5% for the U.S. economy through the first three quarters of 2025, driven by consumer spending, exports, government spending, and investment, with a decline in imports contributing positively to GDP [1][6] Japan's Monetary Policy - The Bank of Japan maintained its policy interest rate at 0.75%, aligning with market expectations, while raising its medium- to long-term inflation forecasts, indicating a more optimistic assessment of price pressures [2][7] - The central bank kept its core CPI forecast for FY2025 unchanged at 2.7% but raised projections for the next two fiscal years, with the FY2026 core CPI forecast increased from 1.8% to 1.9% and FY2027 remaining at 2.0% [2][7] - The core-core CPI forecast, which better reflects underlying price trends, was also revised upward, with FY2025 forecast raised from 2.8% to 3.0%, FY2026 from 2.0% to 2.2%, and FY2027 from 2.0% to 2.1% [2][7] Gold Market - Gold prices surged significantly, reaching a historical high around 4960, supported by a weaker U.S. dollar, ongoing trade tensions, and geopolitical risks that heightened safe-haven demand [3][8] - Expectations of two interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve this year also provided support for gold prices [3][8] Australian Dollar Performance - The Australian dollar rose sharply, breaking the 0.6800 mark and reaching a 15-month high around 0.6850, bolstered by a weaker U.S. dollar and strong economic data from Australia [4][9] - Increased expectations for interest rate hikes in Australia further supported the currency [4][9] USD/JPY Exchange Rate - The USD/JPY pair experienced slight gains, trading around 158.60, supported by ongoing political uncertainties in Japan and positive economic data from the U.S. [5][10] - A decrease in market risk aversion also contributed to the support for the exchange rate [5][10]

1月23日，昨日，黄金市场再次上演了一幕"先抑后扬、勇创新高"的精彩大戏。亚盘开盘，金价经历了 一轮显著回落，跌破4800美元关口，最低下探至4770美元附近。市场在此关键支撑区域获得买盘支撑， 当价格重新站上4805美元后，我们果断进行了策略切换，了结空单并反手进场多单。此后，行情彻底转 向多头主导，金价一路高歌猛进，不断刷新历史纪录，盘中最高触及4940美元一线。我们的多单最终在 4870美元附近止盈离场，在扣除此前的试错成本后，净获利超过60美元。最终，金价强势收盘于4934美 元，日线图上强势录得一根大阳线。 周五（1月23日），市场的基本面图景正在发生微妙但深刻的转变。一方面，格陵兰岛局势有所缓和， 短期最紧迫的地缘"引爆点"效力减弱。然而，特朗普政府的政策工具箱远未关闭，其警告将对欧洲抛售 美国资产实施"重大报复"，并威胁对任何与伊朗有贸易往来的国家加征25%的关税。这些言论持续加深 了全球贸易与金融体系的结构性不确定性。同时，瑞典最大养老基金大规模抛售美债、欧洲议会无限期 冻结欧美贸易协定等事件，仍在不断引发市场对跨大西洋金融与政治联盟稳定性的深层疑虑。这些因素 共同构筑了黄金坚实的结构性买盘基 ...

市场分析 1月23日，昨日的基本面美国总统再爆惊人言论，其表示，如果欧洲国家因与格陵兰岛有关的关税威胁 而抛售美国资产，将面临"重大报复"，此举进一步施压欧洲国家遵守一项关于该岛未来的新兴协议。避 险被推升金银大幅拉升，美国11月核心PCE物价指数符合预期。美国1月17日当周初请失业金人数20万 人，预期21万人。今日的基本面主要关注日本央行公布利率决议和经济前景展望报告。晚间看22：45的 美国1月标普全球制造业PMI初值和美国1月标普全球服务业PMI初值。随后看23：00的美国1月密歇根 大学消费者信心指数终值和美国1月一年期通胀率预期终值。 黄金市场昨日开盘在4832.9的位置后行情先回落，日线最低给到了4770.6的位置后行情震荡拉升，美盘 时段日线受到基本面影响强势拉升，日线破位前日高点后最高触及到了4340.8的位置后整理，日线最终 收线在了4937.5的位置后，日线以一根下影线极长的大阳线收线，而这样的形态收尾后，今日的行情回 踩多，今日4890多止损4884，目标看4920和4952，破位的话看4967和4982和5000-5012压力区间。 白银市场昨日开盘在91.052的位置后行情先回落， ...