11月27-28日，被誉为"年度科技与商业风向标"的36氪WISE2025商业之王大会，在北京798艺术区传导空间落地。 今年的WISE不再是一场传统意义上的行业峰会，而是一次以"科技爽文短剧"为载体的沉浸式体验。从AI重塑硬件边界，到具身智能叩响真实世界的大门； 从出海浪潮中的品牌全球化，到传统行业装上"赛博义肢"——我们还原的不仅是趋势，更是在捕捉在无数次商业实践中磨炼出的真知。 我们将在接下来的内容中，逐帧拆解这些"爽剧"背后的真实逻辑，一起看尽2025年商业的"风景独好"。 上海未来产业基金总经理 魏凡杰 以下演讲内容来自上海未来产业基金总经理魏凡杰，经36氪整理—— 上海今年成立了一个很大的母基金，叫上海未来产业基金。我们在探索一些新的方式，希望推动早期的投资和孵化。今年，我们在市场上还是比较活跃的， 加起来投了20几个GP，直投也在推进。特别在一些前沿的领域。 最近上海未来产业基金在做一个社区，希望从母基金的角度，通过社区和基金的联动。进而构建一个创新的生态。接下来，我想和大家分享一下我们的做 法。 我们现在围绕未来产业做了非常多前沿的投资。去年投了一个非常大的核聚变项目，并在上海落地。第一轮公司 ...

近日，上海不筹量子科技有限公司（以下简称"不筹量子"）完成数千万元人民币的天使轮融资，本轮融资由中科创星领投，复容投资、东方富海共同参与。 所获资金将主要用于建设低噪声超净间、搭建软硬件工程化体系，并加速推进量子计算核心技术的研发与产业化。当前团队正聚焦于大规模原子量子计算系 统的模块化、工程化与集成化，以打造面向容错量子计算、量子算法应用和量子算力平台的长时稳定底层技术体系。 • 量子核函数展开与多体模拟：发明了求解有限温量子多体问题的量子核函数展开算法，并研发了应用于数字化量子模拟的高效编译技术，为量子化学、材 料模拟和量子动力学研究提供了新的工具链。 面向未来，不筹量子将持续推进量子比特质量、系统规模化、算法落地等多维度突破，携手产业界、资本方和科研机构，共同构建面向未来算力革命的量子 计算基础设施。 不筹量子团队主要源自复旦大学中性原子量子计算实验室。创始团队在原子量子计算领域深耕多年，具备系统性的实验技术积累和持续的技术迭代能力，拥 有在国内外量子计算赛道中极具竞争力的原创性优势。不筹量子的长期愿景是通过"软硬协同"打造具备实际应用价值的量子计算机。公司将重点发展异构原 子体系的关键实验技术，实现高 ...

每经AI快讯，12月3日，据中科创星消息，上海不筹量子科技有限公司完成数千万元人民币的天使轮融 资，本轮融资由中科创星领投，复容投资、东方富海共同参与。所获资金将主要用于建设低噪声超净 间、搭建软硬件工程化体系，并加速推进量子计算核心技术的研发与产业化。 ...

Group 1: Superhard Materials Sector - The superhard materials sector experienced a significant surge, with the sector index rising over 6% during trading. Notable stocks included Sifangda, which rose by 19.84%, and Huanghe Xuanfeng, which hit the daily limit [2][3] - Superhard materials, including synthetic diamonds and cubic boron nitride, are critical for high-end manufacturing and advanced technologies in China. They are considered strategic materials essential for national technological progress and industrial security [2] - The market potential for synthetic diamonds is expected to grow significantly, with projections indicating a billion-level growth space by 2025, driven by applications in cutting-edge fields such as nuclear fusion and 6G cooling technologies [2] Group 2: Copper Cable High-Speed Connection Sector - The copper cable high-speed connection sector also saw substantial movement, with Xinke Materials hitting the daily limit and Zhaolong Interconnect rising over 14% [4] - Credo, a leading company in the active copper cable (AEC) sector, reported earnings that exceeded market expectations, with a revenue increase of 272% year-over-year for Q2 of FY2026, reaching $268 million [4][5] - The demand for high-speed data storage in AI systems is increasing, with projections indicating a 45% compound annual growth rate for global AEC sales from 2024 to 2028, highlighting the sector's growth potential [5]

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The focus is on the bond market, particularly the dynamics of long-term and short-term interest rates, as well as investment strategies for December 2025 [1][2][3]. Core Insights and Arguments - **Cautious Investment Stance**: The bond market is under pressure, and a cautious approach is recommended. There is no strong bearish sentiment, but optimism is also not warranted due to the lack of new variables to drive rates down [2][3]. - **Long-term Interest Rates**: The 30-year government bond has seen significant declines due to poor market sentiment, expectations of increased special government bonds, and rising inflation expectations. The spread between 30-year and 10-year bonds remains high [3][4]. - **Short-term Interest Rates**: The one-year deposit rate has limited downward potential, and the current environment suggests that short-term bonds should be treated with a focus on coupon income, especially when there is room for arbitrage [4][7]. - **Investment Strategies**: Three recommended strategies include: 1. High-leverage short-duration credit strategy for cautious investors [5]. 2. Selection of well-performing bonds within the same duration, such as 5-year and 10-year government bonds [5]. 3. Focus on more flexible instruments like 30-year government bonds [5]. - **Credit and Local Government Bonds**: Preference for liquid 3-5 year bonds, with a focus on new and old bonds over three years for better value [6]. Additional Important Insights - **Central Bank Buying Scale**: The current central bank buying scale is 50 billion, which is below market expectations. If short-term rates rise, the central bank may increase its buying scale [7]. - **Bond Spread Dynamics**: The reasonable spread between specific bonds (e.g., 特二 and 特六) is estimated to be around 3 basis points, with recent fluctuations noted [8]. - **Investment Value of 2,502 Bonds**: The investment logic for 2,502 bonds hinges on whether they will be renewed in Q1 2026, with potential for significant activity if renewed [9]. - **Short-term Bonds and Floating Rate Bonds**: Recommendations include 5-year government bonds and specific floating rate bonds for investors looking for good holding value [10]. - **Trends in Convertible Bonds**: The convertible bond market is expected to be volatile in December, with a focus on low-valuation stocks and those with less crowding [12][13]. - **Market Relationships**: The relationship between the convertible bond market and the stock market is crucial, with potential valuation fluctuations expected due to market conditions [14]. - **New vs. Old Bonds**: New bonds are favored due to lower risk of forced redemption, while old bonds face higher risks [15]. - **Balanced Convertible Bonds**: These bonds are recommended for defensive strategies due to their stable price performance [16]. - **Sector Focus**: Attention is drawn to sectors like AI, nuclear fusion, and quantum computing, with specific companies highlighted for their potential [17].

当今世界正经历百年未有之大变局，经济增长动能不足，不确定性显著上升，全球经济增长面临多 重下行风险。中国市场以无可替代的超大规模和综合竞争优势，展现出稳健的韧性与活力，以系统性优 势为全球企业提供稳定可期的战略机遇与发展空间。 消费市场：规模增量领跑全球，结构升级潜力巨大 投资市场：产业根基深厚稳固，投资空间持续释放 我国投资市场的吸引力建立在完整的产业体系、持续升级的产业结构和显著的投资回报等基础上， 形成了独特的综合竞争优势。 近年来，我国产业链供应链的韧性得到充分验证。中国是全球唯一拥有联合国产业分类中全部工业 门类的国家，完整的产业体系使中国制造业在面对外部冲击时展现出强大韧性。中国制造业总体成本竞 争力强于发达国家，部分高技术领域优势更为明显。以新能源汽车为例，中国已形成从电池材料、电芯 制造到整车组装的完整产业链，产业集群效应显著。 投资领域的多元化是中国市场的突出特色。除了传统的基础设施建设外，产业升级和绿色转型等领 域正形成新的投资增长点。同时，中国城镇化进程仍在稳步推进，2024年我国常住人口城镇化率为 67%，与发达国家80%以上的水平相比仍有较大提升空间，预计将带动超过数十万亿元的投资需 ...

Core Insights - Saxo Bank has released its 2026 "Outrageous Predictions" list, which includes scenarios such as breakthroughs in quantum computing, gold prices soaring to $10,000, and widespread failures of AI systems [1][3][4] Group 1: 2025 Predictions - Some 2025 predictions are already materializing, including the impact of Trump's tariff policies on the dollar, which has fallen 8% this year, marking its worst performance since 2017 [1][2] - Nvidia's market capitalization has increased by 34% to $4.37 trillion, approaching double that of Apple, which stands at $4.18 trillion [1][2] Group 2: Quantum Computing - Saxo Bank strategist Neil Wilson predicts that breakthroughs in quantum computing will occur faster than expected, leading to panic in financial markets [3] - This scenario could drive investors towards safe-haven assets like silver and gold, pushing gold prices to $10,000 [3] Group 3: AI Automation Crisis - Saxo Bank's investment strategy head Jacob Falkencrone forecasts that by 2026, AI systems will be widely used for optimization and automation, potentially leading to a comprehensive crisis due to various failures [4] - Specific risks include algorithm errors causing market crashes and AI-driven accounting violations, which could result in significant financial repercussions [4] Group 4: Other Outrageous Predictions - The 2026 predictions also include unconventional scenarios such as a wedding between Taylor Swift and Travis Kelce saving the global economy, and the widespread use of weight-loss drugs even for pets [5] - Other predictions involve SpaceX announcing an IPO and Fortune 500 companies appointing AI models as CEOs [5]

Core Insights - The article emphasizes the importance of manufacturing as the foundation of a country's economy and technological advancement, arguing that neglecting manufacturing in favor of newer concepts like big data and cloud computing is a significant misunderstanding [1][3][4] - It highlights that the U.S. has not abandoned manufacturing, with manufacturing contributing $2.36 trillion to the economy, representing 11% of the total economic output, while over 60% of the service sector is related to manufacturing [2][4] Manufacturing Development - The historical context of industrialization is outlined, noting that the first industrial revolution began in 1776 with the invention of the steam engine, leading to significant advancements in manufacturing [3][4] - The article discusses the rapid industrialization of China over the past 40 years, achieving a manufacturing system that is now the largest in the world, but also notes the significant gaps in technology and capabilities compared to developed countries [5][6] Current Challenges - Three major challenges facing China's manufacturing sector are identified: a weak industrial foundation, an incomplete industrial ecosystem, and a need for an improved industrial environment [6][8][10] - The lack of foundational research and reliance on foreign technology for critical components, such as high-end chips and industrial robots, is highlighted as a significant gap [7][9] Future Directions - The article calls for a focus on strengthening the foundational aspects of manufacturing, including research institutions and universities, to foster innovation and technological advancement [12][13] - It emphasizes the need for a complete industrial chain and the establishment of a robust talent system to support the manufacturing sector [13][14] - The importance of enhancing recognition of manufacturing processes and improving strategic guidance to avoid fragmented approaches is also discussed [15][16]

Core Insights - Artificial Intelligence (AI) is revolutionizing the trading landscape, bringing unprecedented efficiency, accuracy, and speed to financial markets. By 2025, AI is expected to handle nearly 89% of global trading volume, impacting everything from high-frequency stock trading to decentralized cryptocurrency ecosystems [1][10]. Group 1: Evolution of AI in Trading - The adoption of AI in trading is driven by the need for automation, reducing human errors, and executing trades at record speeds [10]. - Current markets generate and process over 2.5 million terabytes of data daily, including news, social media, satellite images, and blockchain transactions, creating a data explosion that AI can help manage [13]. Group 2: Core Technologies Driving AI Trading - Key technologies include machine learning, deep learning, natural language processing, and quantum computing, which enhance trading strategies and decision-making [13][14]. - AI systems can achieve nanosecond-level trading responses, significantly faster than human reaction times, improving overall market efficiency [13]. Group 3: AI Trading Platforms and Strategies - AI trading strategies encompass quantitative trading, algorithmic trading, sentiment analysis, and reinforcement learning, all aimed at maximizing returns and managing market risks [14][15]. - The regulatory landscape is evolving, with institutions like the SEC approving new AI-driven order types, legitimizing autonomous trading systems [13].

Market Overview - The market is currently experiencing weakness, with major indices falling below the 60-day moving average, indicating a lack of upward momentum [1] - Despite a favorable monetary environment, there are signs of weakness in the real economy, leading to cautious investor sentiment [1][2] Investment Strategy - Investors are advised to stabilize their positions and avoid leveraging, focusing instead on technology and new economy sectors rather than cyclical stocks [2] - The emphasis should be on long-term opportunities in leading AI companies, as the AI and computing chip sector is seen as a historic opportunity despite potential short-term valuation risks [4][5] Technology Sector Insights - AI and computing chips are identified as transformative technologies that could significantly enhance productivity over the next 20 years [4] - Brain-computer interfaces are viewed as a bubble, with current technology only providing limited functionality for disabled individuals [5][6] - Satellite internet is recognized as a genuine opportunity due to its proven technology and demand in remote areas, particularly in China [7][8] Emerging Technologies - Blockchain is considered a bubble, with concerns over the security of cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin, which may lead to a collapse in their valuation [8] - Human-like robots and low-altitude electric manned flying vehicles are also categorized as bubbles, with significant regulatory and technical challenges hindering their development [9][10] - Quantum communication and quantum computing are still uncertain, with significant technical hurdles to overcome [10][11] Established Technologies - 3D printing is seen as having potential for growth, especially as AI lowers design barriers, making it more accessible for home use [11] - Lithium batteries, particularly solid-state batteries, are viewed as having opportunities, although traditional lithium battery technology is reaching maturity [11]