Research Views Corn - Corn futures showed a weak performance on Tuesday, with the September contract's funds shifting to the January contract. The favorable weather during the growing season influenced market sentiment, and the spot market in the Northeast region had limited trading activity. The downstream feed enterprises mainly used their previous inventory and waited for the new grain to enter the market. Technically, the September contract rebounded to the previous trading range of 2320 - 2330, facing technical resistance. If the support at 2300 is ineffective, the price will continue to decline. The view is that the price will be weakly volatile [1]. Soybean Meal - CBOT soybeans closed lower on Tuesday due to favorable weather in the US, increasing the expectation of a bumper harvest. Brazilian grain exporters expected lower soybean and soybean meal exports in July. In the domestic market, soybean meal followed the external market and declined. The reduction of Argentine tariffs and overseas purchases by domestic feed enterprises dragged down the forward price of soybean meal. The strategy is to focus on intraday trading. The view is that the price will rise [1]. Edible Oils - BMD palm oil closed higher on Tuesday due to short - covering and bargain - hunting. Rapeseed in Canada also rose following the increase in US soybean oil. The market continued to focus on Indonesia's biodiesel and export policies. In the domestic market, soybean oil rose, rapeseed oil followed, and palm oil was relatively weak. The low price and high cost - effectiveness of soybean oil provided support. With the slight increase in the inventory of three major vegetable oils last week and the unclear international policies, the market will be volatile. The strategy is to focus on intraday trading. The view is that the price will be volatile [1]. Eggs - The main egg contract 2509 oscillated and closed flat on Tuesday. The spot price was stable. After the previous price adjustment, the short - term supply and demand became stable. Due to the hot weather, traders' willingness to stock up was low, and most of the egg prices in the sales areas were stable. In the short term, the fundamental situation was bearish, and the price will be volatile. Although the demand will increase in the peak season, considering the high inventory and cold - stored eggs, the price peak is likely to be lower than last year [1]. Pigs - The main pig contract 2509 rose 0.18% on Tuesday. The spot price of pigs declined in most regions. Some breeding enterprises increased their sales volume by reducing prices to meet their monthly sales plans. In the short term, the supply side will put pressure on the price, while policies will provide support. The view is that the price will be volatile [2]. Market Information - Last week, the production of rapeseed oil increased with the increase in rapeseed crushing volume, and the inventory continued to decline. As of the end of the 30th week of 2025, the inventory of imported rapeseed oil was 78.6 million tons, a decrease of 2.6 million tons from last week, a 3.21% decline. The contract volume was 11.6 million tons, a decrease of 1.2 million tons from last week, a 9.24% decline [3]. - The EU and Indonesia reached an agreement on the Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement (CEPA), with the EU agreeing to a zero - tariff policy for a certain quota of Indonesian palm oil imports, and a 3% tariff for imports exceeding the quota [3]. - The Chairman of the Indonesian Palm Oil Commission (IPOC) said that Indonesia's palm oil exports to India in 2025 will exceed 500 million tons, higher than 480 million tons in 2024. Indonesia also plans to export 100,000 germinated palm seeds to India to support its plan to expand the oil palm planting area [4]. - The e - trading center of Sinograin will organize a two - way bidding trading of domestic soybeans on August 1, 2025, with a trading volume of 40,302 tons [4]. Variety Spreads Contract Spreads - The report presents the 9 - 1 spreads of corn, corn starch, soybeans, soybean meal, soybean oil, palm oil, eggs, and pigs through charts [1][6][8][9][12]. Contract Basis - The report presents the basis of corn, corn starch, soybeans, soybean meal, soybean oil, palm oil, eggs, and pigs through charts [14][18][24][26]. Research Team Members - Wang Na, the director of the agricultural product research department at Everbright Futures Research Institute, has won the "Best Agricultural Product Analyst" title multiple times and led the team to win many awards [28]. - Hou Xueling, a soybean analyst at Everbright Futures, has more than ten years of futures trading experience and has won the "Best Agricultural Product Analyst" title multiple times [28]. - Kong Hailan, a researcher on eggs and pigs at Everbright Futures Research Institute, has participated in many research projects and won awards [28].

农产品早报 2025-07-30 五矿期货农产品早报 五矿期货农产品团队 从业资格号：F0273729 交易咨询号：Z0002942 邮箱：wangja@wkqh.cn 从业资格号：F03116327 交易咨询号：Z0019233 邮箱:yangzeyuan@wkqh.cn 从业资格号：F03114441 交易咨询号：Z0022498 电话：010-60167188 邮箱：sxwei@wkqh.cn 王俊 组长、生鲜研究员 周二夜盘美豆收盘下跌，北美天气较好限制上方空间，但因为估值较低预计维持区间震荡趋势，豆粕则 因国内累库等继续偏弱，据 MYSTEEL 统计上周油厂豆粕库存已突破 100 万吨。周二豆粕国内豆粕现货 小幅下跌，华东报 2830 元/吨，豆粕成交较好突破 40 万吨，提货仍然维持高水平，下游库存天数小幅回 落处历年中等水平。据 MYSTEEL 统计上周国内压榨大豆 223.89 万吨，本周预计压榨 237.26 万吨。 杨泽元 白糖、棉花研究员 美豆产区未来两周降雨预计偏正常，覆盖大部分产区，气温凉爽，总体天气有利。巴西方面，升贴水企 稳回升。总体来看，外盘大豆处于低估值、供大于求状态，暂未出 ...

2025年07月29日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-农产品 观点与策略 | 棕榈油：短期上涨到位，警惕情绪回落 | 2 | | --- | --- | | 豆油：区间震荡，关注中美贸易进展 | 2 | | 豆粕：调整震荡 | 4 | | 豆一：调整震荡 | 4 | | 白糖：区间整理 | 6 | | 棉花：高基差和供应偏紧担忧继续支撑期价 | 7 | | 鸡蛋：现货转弱 | 9 | | 生猪：强现实弱预期，趋势反套 | 10 | 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 华南油脂价格减主力合约期价；现货部分：指报告日前一交易日价格。 商 品 研 究 2025 年 7 月 29 日 棕榈油：短期上涨到位，警惕情绪回落 豆油：区间震荡，关注中美贸易进展 | | | 【基本面跟踪】 油脂基本面数据 | | | 单 位 | 收盘价 (日盘） | 涨跌幅 | 收盘价 （夜盘） | 涨跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 棕榈油主力 | 元/吨 | 8,946 | 0.11% | 8,924 | -0.25% | ...

2025年07月28日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-农产品 | | | 观点与策略 | 棕榈油：短期上涨到位，警惕情绪回落 | 2 | | --- | --- | | 豆油：区间震荡，关注中美贸易进展 | 2 | | 豆粕：隔夜美豆微跌，连粕调整震荡 | 5 | | 豆一：调整震荡 | 5 | | 玉米：关注现货 | 7 | | 白糖：区间整理 | 9 | | 棉花：注意短期市场情绪变化的影响 | 10 | | 鸡蛋：现货驱动减弱 | 12 | | 生猪：强现实弱预期，结构切换至趋势反套 | 13 | | 花生：下方有支撑 | 14 | 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 商 品 研 究 2025 年 7 月 28 日 棕榈油：短期上涨到位，警惕情绪回落 豆油：区间震荡，关注中美贸易进展 【基本面跟踪】 油脂基本面数据 | | | 单 位 | 收盘价 (日盘） | 涨跌幅 | 收盘价 （夜盘） | 涨跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 棕榈油主力 | 元/吨 | 8,936 | -1.85% | ...

| 油脂产业期现日报 | | | | F EF FUTUR | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可 【2011】1292号 | 2025年7月24日 | | | 王速框 | Z0019938 | | 原田 | | | | | | | 7月23日 | | | 7月22日 | 张庆 | 张跌幅 | | 江苏一级 现价 | | 8310 | 8330 | -20 | -0.24% | | 期价 Y2509 | | 8074 | 8076 | -2 | -0.02% | | 墓差 Y2509 | | 236 | 254 | -18 | -7.09% | | 现货墓差报价 江苏7月 | | 09 + 160 | 09+160 | 0 | - | | 仓单 | | 21695 | 21695 | 0 | 0.00% | | 棕櫚油 | | | | | | | 7月23日 | | | 7月22日 | 张跃 | 涨跌幅 | | 现价 广东24度 | | 9000 | 9000 | 0 | 0.00% | | 期价 P2509 | | 8994 | 8 ...

Research Views Corn - Tuesday saw the corn weighted contract increase in price with reduced positions, and the September contract has reduced positions for two consecutive days with a rebound in futures prices. In the spot market, the impact of imported corn auctions on the market has weakened due to the decline in the auction成交率. The overall atmosphere in the Northeast production area has recovered, and corn prices have rebounded. Corn prices in North China are generally stable, with individual enterprises slightly increasing prices. The arrival volume of corn at Shandong deep - processing enterprises has increased, but the prices remain stable. In Henan and Hebei, a few enterprises have slightly increased prices. Corn prices in the sales area have slightly rebounded. Over the weekend, corn prices in the production area rebounded by 10 - 20 yuan/ton. The futures have been rising, and traders at ports in the sales area have slightly increased their quotes, but downstream acceptance is average, and trading is dull. Technically, the September contract has rebounded to the previous intensive trading range of 2320 - 2330, and the short - term rebound is restricted by technical resistance, showing a short - term weakening and oscillating trend [1]. Soybean Meal - On Tuesday, CBOT soybeans closed lower with high volatility, rising at one point due to the decline in US crop ratings and trade negotiation news. US soybean meal rose, and US soybean oil fell. Traders were originally worried about the high temperature in the US Midwest damaging yields, but after a brief heatwave in the middle of this week, rainfall is expected to limit crop stress. In the domestic market, the spot prices of domestic rapeseed meal and soybean meal have all increased, and futures prices have also risen. The general rise of commodities has created a mostly bullish atmosphere for the protein meal market. The firm Brazilian premium and the increase in soybean import costs support the price of soybean meal. The oil mill operating rate remains high, but terminal inquiry willingness is low, and it is mainly for short - term rigid demand. The inventory of soybean meal is accumulating rapidly. Oil mills have limited contracts for sale, and some factories have suspended spot quotes or adopted a price - holding strategy. The market is closely watching the progress of Sino - US relations and the fourth - quarter oilseed procurement. The trading strategy is to hold a bullish view on the market, and hold long positions in the 91 and 15 spreads of soybean meal [1]. Fats and Oils - On Tuesday, BMD palm oil slightly increased, following the trend of the surrounding market. However, market volatility has intensified due to the unclear prospects of trade negotiations between major economies. Canadian rapeseed prices fell because of the beneficial rainfall and mild temperatures in the Canadian prairie this week, which support crop yield prospects, but commercial buying limited the decline. In the domestic market, the spot prices of palm oil have all increased, while the spot prices of domestic soybean oil and imported rapeseed oil have all decreased. Recently, oil mills have urged downstream customers to pick up goods, but the fundamentals of soybean oil remain loose, and the inventory has continued to rise, reaching an eight - month high. Commodities have generally risen, led by industrial products, and the fats and oils market lacks hot spots, with capital flowing out. The fats and oils market is mainly oscillating. The trading strategy is to conduct intraday trading on single - side positions and hold long positions in the 91 spreads [1]. Eggs - On Tuesday, the main egg contract 2509 oscillated and adjusted, closing down 0.41% at 3621 yuan/500 kilograms. According to Zhuochuang data, the national egg price yesterday was 3.2 yuan/jin, a 0.03 - yuan/jin increase from the previous day. In the production area, the price of Ningjin pink - shell eggs was 3.15 yuan/jin, unchanged from the previous day, and the price of Heishan brown - shell eggs was 2.9 yuan/jin, a 0.2 - yuan/jin increase. In the sales area, the price of Putuo brown - shell eggs was 3.24 yuan/jin, and the price of Guangzhou brown - shell eggs was 3.63 yuan/jin, unchanged from the previous day. Terminal consumption is stable, and most traders purchase and sell in line with the market. Egg prices in most sales areas are stable, with a few showing slight increases or decreases. Currently, the supply is still relatively abundant. After the previous low - price rebound, egg prices have stabilized. Fundamentally, egg prices are expected to enter a peak season, which is bullish for prices. However, considering the current high inventory and cold - storage eggs, the peak egg price is likely to be lower than last year [1]. Live Pigs - On Tuesday, the main live pig contract 2509 oscillated and closed up 0.1% at 14380 yuan/ton. According to Zhuochuang data, the daily average price of live pigs in China yesterday was 14.34 yuan/kg, a 0.06 - yuan/kg decrease from the previous day. The average price of live pigs in the benchmark delivery area of Henan was 14.46 yuan/kg, a 0.02 - yuan/kg decrease. Prices in Guangdong and Sichuan were flat, while those in Shandong and Liaoning decreased. After the previous rebound in pig prices, farmers have been actively selling, and the supply is sufficient, but downstream demand support is weak. Pig prices are stable in some regions and decreasing in others. Fundamentally, there is no significant change. Considering the supply pressure and policy support, the view on pig prices is that they will oscillate. On the futures chart, the previous high forms obvious resistance. Attention should be paid to changes in spot prices and market sentiment [2]. Market Information - According to SGS, Malaysia's palm oil exports from July 1 - 20 are estimated to be 486,404 tons, a 35.99% decrease compared to the same period last month [2]. - Russia's Agriculture Minister Oksana Lut said that Russia, the world's largest wheat exporter, has cut its 2025 wheat production and 2025/26 market - year wheat export volume forecasts. The current forecast for wheat production is 88 - 90 million tons, down from the previous 90 million tons. The expected export volume for this year is 43 - 44 million tons, lower than the previous forecast of 45 million tons [3]. - Malaysia's palm oil exports in June 2025 remained high at 1.26 million tons, exceeding the figures in June 2022 (1.19 million tons), June 2023 (1.17 million tons), and June 2024 (1.21 million tons). However, the palm oil inventory reached an 18 - month high of 2.03 million tons. In the first half of 2025, Kenya became Malaysia's second - largest palm oil buyer, surpassing the EU 27 (21,000 tons) and China (117,000 tons). Kenya accounts for 30% of Malaysia's total palm oil exports to sub - Saharan Africa, and its annual import volume from Malaysia is expected to reach 1.3 million tons [3]. - US Treasury Secretary Bessent said that the next round of Sino - US talks may discuss China's purchase of Russian and Iranian oil. At the Chinese Foreign Ministry's regular press conference on July 22, spokesperson Guo Jiakun said that China's stance on tariffs is consistent and clear, hoping that the US will work with China to implement the important consensus reached in the phone calls between the two heads of state, give play to the role of the Sino - US economic and trade consultation mechanism, and promote the stable, healthy, and sustainable development of Sino - US relations through dialogue and communication [3]. Variety Spreads Contract Spreads - The report provides charts of the 9 - 1 spreads for corn, corn starch, soybeans, soybean meal, soybean oil, palm oil, eggs, and live pigs [5][7][8][11] Contract Basis - The report provides charts of the basis for corn, corn starch, soybeans, soybean meal, soybean oil, palm oil, eggs, and live pigs [13][17][23][25] Research Team Members - Wang Na is the director of the agricultural product research at Everbright Futures Research Institute and the leader of the top ten research and investment teams at DCE. She has won the "Best Agricultural Product Analyst" title in the Futures Daily and Securities Times' Best Futures Analyst selection for many years. In 2019, her team won the title of the top ten research and investment teams at DCE. In 2023, her team won the special prize in the DCE "Sailing in the Futures Sea" college student practice competition in cooperation with Nankai University. She is a special economic analyst for Xinhua News Agency and a financial commentator on CCTV's economic and news channels [27]. - Hou Xueling is an analyst for soybeans at Everbright Futures. She has more than ten years of futures - trading experience. Her team won the title of the most potential agricultural product futures research and development team at DCE in 2013 and the top ten research and development teams at DCE in 2019. In 2023, she participated in the DCE "Sailing in the Futures Sea" college student practice competition in cooperation with Nankai University and won the special prize [27]. - Kong Hailan, a master in economics, is currently a researcher for eggs and live pigs at Everbright Futures Research Institute. She is a guest analyst on First Financial Channel. Her team won the title of the top ten research and development teams at DCE in 2019 and the special prize in the DCE "Sailing in the Futures Sea" college student practice competition in 2023 [27].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment strategy for both the soybean meal and corn sectors is cautiously bearish [3][5] 2. Core Views - For soybean meal, although the sown area of new - season US soybeans has decreased, high yields are expected to maintain a bountiful harvest. In China, oil mills are accumulating inventory, while the aquaculture industry is in a seasonal consumption off - season. The supply is relatively loose, but the soybean meal futures price rose last week due to macro - sentiment. Policy changes and new - season soybean growth need attention [1][2] - For corn, in China, after a wave of concentrated grain sales in the main producing areas, the trade inventory has decreased, and the available corn in the market has reduced. Feed enterprises have sufficient inventory and purchase on - demand. The import corn auction turnover rate has declined, weakening its impact on market prices [3][4] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Soybean Meal Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of the soybean meal 2509 contract was 3086 yuan/ton, up 17 yuan/ton (+0.55%) from the previous day; the rapeseed meal 2509 contract was 2736 yuan/ton, up 9 yuan/ton (+0.33%) [1] - Spot: Tianjin's soybean meal spot price was 2970 yuan/ton, unchanged; Jiangsu's was 2890 yuan/ton, unchanged; Guangdong's was 2880 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan/ton. Fujian's rapeseed meal spot price was 2680 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan/ton [1] - US Information: As of July 20, 2025, the good - to - excellent rate of US soybeans was 68%, lower than the expected 71%. As of July 17, the US soybean export inspection volume was 36.5 tons [1] Market Analysis - US: Future weather in major US soybean - producing areas is favorable, and high yields are expected to offset the reduction in sown area [2] - China: Oil mills are accumulating inventory, and the aquaculture industry is in a consumption off - season. Feed enterprises purchase on - demand. The supply is loose, and spot prices are stable, but the futures price rose due to macro - sentiment [2] Strategy - Cautiously bearish [3] Corn Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of the corn 2509 contract was 2322 yuan/ton, up 2 yuan/ton (+0.09%); the corn starch 2509 contract was 2668 yuan/ton, up 4 yuan/ton (+0.15%) [3] - Spot: Liaoning's corn spot price was 2150 yuan/ton, unchanged; Jilin's corn starch spot price was 2740 yuan/ton, unchanged [3] - Other Information: As of July 17, the harvest of Brazil's second - season corn was 55%, and the expected total output was 1.363 billion tons. US wheat export inspection volume in the week of July 17 was 73.2 tons, up 64.7% week - on - week and 152.0% year - on - year [3] Market Analysis - Supply: After concentrated grain sales in major domestic producing areas, the trade inventory has decreased, and the available corn in the market has reduced [4] - Demand: Feed enterprises have sufficient inventory and purchase on - demand. Deep - processing enterprises also purchase on - demand, with narrow price adjustments [4] - Policy: The turnover rate of imported corn auctions has decreased, weakening its impact on market prices [4] Strategy - Cautiously bearish [5]

农产品日报 | 2025-07-23 早熟果上市量增加，关注新季果品质 苹果观点 市场要闻与重要数据 期货方面，昨日收盘苹果2510合约7929元/吨，较前一日变动+6元/吨，幅度+0.08%。现货方面，山东栖霞80# 一二 级晚富士价格3.95元/斤，较前一日变动+0.00元/斤，现货基差AP10-29，较前一日变动-6；陕西洛川70# 以上半商 品晚富士价格4.80元/斤，较前一日变动+0.00元/斤，现货基差AP10+1671，较前一日变动-6。 近期市场资讯，苹果市场库存货源交易氛围仍显一般，西部产区货源剩余不多，部分冷库对水烂点货源存急售心 理，现货商发自存货源为主，早熟果纸袋秦阳陆续上市交易。山东产区客商拿货仍显谨慎，多挑拣拿货。剩余货 源结构多以中大果居多，走货不快。销区市场需求不佳，近期南方销区台风多雨天气，走货不快。陕西洛川产区 目前库内70#起步统货4.2-4.5元/斤，70#起步半商品4.5-5.0元/斤，以质论价。 山东栖霞产区果农三级2.0-2.5元/斤， 果农80#以上统货2.8-3.5元/斤，80#一二级条纹4.0-4.5元/斤，80#一二级片红3.5-4.0元/斤。 市场分析 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the reports. 2. Core Views of Each Report 2.1. Fats and Oils - Palm oil: Affected by production growth and export decline, the crude palm oil futures may face downward pressure after oscillating around the annual line, testing the support at 4,100 ringgit. Domestically, there is a risk of weakness for domestic palm oil futures, with attention on the support around 8,800 yuan [1]. - Soybean oil: In August, weather impacts on soybean crops increase. Although the latest US soybean good - rate is high, CBOT soybeans may fluctuate narrowly. Domestically, short - term basis quotes may be under pressure, but long - term support exists [1]. 2.2. Sugar - Brazilian sugar production in the second half of June was lower than expected. If the sugar - to - ethanol ratio is adjusted, production may not meet expectations. The short - term bottom of raw sugar prices may appear, but a bearish view is maintained considering the overall production increase. The domestic sugar market is expected to be marginally looser, with a bearish view after rebounds [3][4]. 2.3. Cotton - The demand side of the cotton industry is still weak, but the rising cotton price has led to a follow - up increase in yarn prices. The supply side faces some pressure from the sale of old cotton stocks, but the tight inventory situation is difficult to resolve before new cotton is listed. Short - term domestic cotton prices may oscillate at a high level, and face pressure after new cotton is listed [7]. 2.4. Eggs - The supply of eggs is sufficient, but high - temperature weather has reduced egg weight and laying rates, causing a shortage of large - sized eggs. With the start of the peak demand season, egg prices are expected to rise slightly this week and then stabilize [9]. 2.5. Corn - The corn auction on July 22 had a 27%成交 rate, and the market has digested the news. Supply is tightening due to factors like reduced willingness to sell and bad weather. Demand has some resilience. In the medium - term, supply is tight and demand is increasing, supporting prices. In the short - term, the market is stable, and the futures may oscillate strongly but with limited space [12][13]. 2.6. Meal - US soybeans are bottom - oscillating, and the expected August drought in the main production areas provides support. Brazilian soybeans are firm, but Chinese purchases of US soybeans may suppress Brazilian premiums. Currently, domestic soybean and soybean meal inventories are rising, and the basis is low. After October, the continuity of soybean arrivals is uncertain, and a cautious bullish operation is recommended [16]. 2.7. Pigs - The spot price of pigs is oscillating. Secondary fattening enthusiasm has declined, and market demand is weak, so prices are weak. There is no basis for a sharp decline, but the upside is limited. The futures are affected by macro funds, and caution is needed when chasing up prices in the far - month contracts [19]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Fats and Oils - **Price Changes**: - Soybean oil: The spot price in Jiangsu decreased by 0.24% to 8,350 yuan/ton, and the futures price (Y2509) decreased by 0.20% to 8,092 yuan/ton [1]. - Palm oil: The spot price in Guangdong increased by 0.33% to 9,000 yuan/ton, and the futures price (P2509) increased by 0.18% to 8,926 yuan/ton [1]. - Rapeseed oil: The spot price in Jiangsu decreased by 0.52% to 9,650 yuan/ton, and the futures price (01509) decreased by 0.90% to 9,477 yuan/ton [1]. 3.2. Sugar - **Price Changes**: - Futures: The price of sugar 2601 decreased by 0.30% to 5,653 yuan/ton, and the price of sugar 2509 decreased by 0.27% to 5,823 yuan/ton [3]. - Spot: The price in Nanning decreased by 0.17% to 6,050 yuan/ton, and the price in Kunming increased by 0.68% to 5,920 yuan/ton [3]. - **Industry Data**: - National sugar production increased by 12.03% to 1,116.21 million tons, and sales increased by 23.07% to 811.38 million tons [3]. 3.3. Cotton - **Price Changes**: - Futures: The price of cotton 2509 increased by 0.28% to 14,225 yuan/ton, and the price of cotton 2601 increased by 0.29% to 14,030 yuan/ton [7]. - Spot: The Xinjiang arrival price of 3128B decreased by 0.41% to 15,416 yuan/ton [7]. - **Industry Data**: - Northern inventory decreased by 10.2% to 254.24 million tons, and industrial inventory decreased by 2.3% to 88.21 million tons [7]. 3.4. Eggs - **Price Changes**: - The price of the egg 09 contract decreased by 0.41% to 3,621 yuan/500KG, and the price of the egg 08 contract decreased by 0.53% to 3,574 yuan/500KG [9]. - The egg - producing area price increased by 1.59% to 3.23 yuan/jin [9]. 3.5. Corn - **Price Changes**: - The price of corn 2509 increased by 0.09% to 2,322 yuan/ton, and the price of corn starch 2509 increased by 0.15% to 2,668 yuan/ton [12]. - **Industry Data**: - The early - morning remaining vehicles at Shandong deep - processing plants decreased by 35.29% to 132 [12]. 3.6. Meal - **Price Changes**: - The spot price of soybean meal in Jiangsu increased by 0.35% to 2,900 yuan/ton, and the futures price (M2509) increased by 0.43% to 3,069 yuan/ton [16]. - The spot price of rapeseed meal in Jiangsu increased by 0.34% to 2,630 yuan/ton, and the futures price (RM2509) increased by 0.18% to 2,727 yuan/ton [16]. 3.7. Pigs - **Price Changes**: - The price of the pig 2511 contract increased by 0.65% to 13,960 yuan/ton, and the price of the pig 2509 contract increased by 0.10% to 14,380 yuan/ton [19]. - **Industry Data**: - The daily slaughter volume of sample points decreased by 1.09% to 133,605 heads, and the monthly fertile sow inventory increased by 0.10% to 4,042 million heads [19].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - **One Star (Bullish with Limited Operability)**: Soybean No. 1, Soybean Meal, Live Hogs [1] - **Two Stars (Clear Bullish/Bearish Trend and Market Fermentation)**: None - **Three Stars (Clearer Bullish/Bearish Trend and Investment Opportunities)**: Soybean Oil, Palm Oil, Rapeseed Meal, Rapeseed Oil, Corn, Eggs [1] - **White Star (Balanced Trend and Poor Operability, Observe)**: None Core Viewpoints - The prices of various agricultural products are affected by multiple factors such as weather, policy, trade relations, and supply - demand. In the face of uncertainties in tariff and weather issues, the market trends of different agricultural products vary, and continuous attention to relevant factors is required [2][3][4] Summary by Commodity Soybean No. 1 - Domestic soybeans show a volatile and slightly strong rebound. Spot prices are relatively stable, and today's tender procurement had zero transactions. In the next week, there will be more showers in Northeast China and northern North China, which is beneficial for soil moisture but may cause short - term waterlogging. For imported soybeans, in the next two weeks in the US soybean - producing areas, higher - than - normal temperature and precipitation can ease the high - temperature risk. Short - term attention should be paid to weather and policy [2] Soybean & Soybean Meal - As of the week ending July 20, the US soybean good - to - excellent rate was 68%, lower than the expected 71%. In the next two weeks, rainfall in the US soybean - producing areas will be slightly lower than normal, and there will be high - temperature days in the central and southeastern regions. The suspension of Sino - US tariffs is about to end, and China's soybean procurement decision is a market focus. Domestically, the oil mill crushing rate is stable, and the soybean meal inventory is increasing. Before the tariff and weather issues are clear, the soybean meal market will be volatile [3] Soybean Oil & Palm Oil - The main contracts of domestic palm oil and soybean oil show position reduction and price adjustment. Currently, major domestic industrial products are rising strongly, but palm oil does not follow. The palm oil futures main contract price is near the previous high, with position reduction. In the next two weeks in the US soybean - producing areas, high temperature and precipitation can ease the high - temperature risk. Short - term data shows that Malaysia's palm oil production increased and exports decreased in July 1 - 20. Due to the long - term development of US and Indonesian biodiesel and the palm oil's fourth - quarter production reduction cycle, a strategy of buying on dips is maintained [4] Rapeseed Meal & Rapeseed Oil - Today, rapeseed meal is strong and rapeseed oil is weak. The stagnant rise and decline of overseas oilseeds and oils are mainly reflected in the oil market. The peak season of aquatic feed demand is coming, and the consumption of East China granular meal has improved. Coastal oil mills' rapeseed meal inventory is low, supporting the short - term rapeseed meal price. The uncertainty of rapeseed imports remains, and there are variables in Sino - US and Sino - Canadian economic and trade relations. The short - term strategy for rapeseed products is to observe, focusing on weather and trade negotiations [6] Corn - Today, Sinograin held an imported corn sales auction with 198,558 tons, and the transaction rate was 27%. As of the week ending July 20, the US corn good - to - excellent rate was 74%, in line with expectations. The US corn is growing well. Currently, the domestic corn market has few contradictions, and the Dalian corn futures may continue to fluctuate at the bottom [7] Live Hogs - The live hog futures market continues the upward trend of the January contract leading the rise. The far - month contracts are stronger than the near - month ones. The rise is driven by policy expectations. The spot market is weak. The long - term supply indicators show sufficient potential supply. Attention should be paid to policy guidance [8] Eggs - Egg futures increased positions and slightly declined today. Spot prices are stable in some areas and rising in others. The spot price is in the seasonal rebound stage, but attention should be paid to the pressure of cold - storage egg release. The off - season contracts are affected by insufficient old - hen culling and high production capacity. In the long - term, the egg price cycle has not bottomed out [9]