农产品日报（2025 年 6 月 20 日） 一、研究观点 | 品种 | 点评 | 观点 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 周四，玉米加权合约增仓上行，7 月合约主力资金向 9 月转移，9 月成为主力合 | | | | 约，期价围绕 2400 元关口波动，盘中价格突破上行。现货市场方面，小麦提价 | | | | 对玉米形成支撑。东北玉米价格表现较为坚挺，贸易商挺价较为明显，市场购销 | | | | 虽不活跃，但库存相对较少，并不影响贸易商的报价心态。华北地区玉米价格整 | | | | 体稳中偏强运行，但上涨幅度有限。山东深加工到货量维持低位，企业根据自身 | | | 玉米 | 情况窄幅调整，部分企业上调，只有个别企业价格窄幅下调，主流价格维持稳定。 | 上涨 | | | 河南深加工价格窄幅上调 10-20 元/吨。河北地区价格基本维持稳定。销区市场 | | | | 玉米价格整体稳定运行。近期市场关注进口玉米拍卖消息较多，涨价心态发生转 | | | | 变，市场高价成交一般，港口贸易商报价暂时稳定。技术上，玉米加权合约减仓 | | | | 调整结束后，周三开始持仓恢复增加。9 月合约关注主力多 ...

农产品日报 | 2025-06-19 供应仍显宽松，猪价震荡运行 生猪观点 市场要闻与重要数据 期货方面，昨日收盘生猪 2509合约13835元/吨，较前交易日变动+20.00元/吨，幅度+0.14%。现货方面，河南地区 外三元生猪价格14.30元/公斤，较前交易日变动+0.02元/公斤，现货基差 LH09+465，较前交易日变动+0；江苏地 区外三元生猪价格 14.61元/公斤，较前交易日变动-0.02元/公斤，现货基差LH09+775，较前交易日变动-40；四川 地区外三元生猪价格13.85元/公斤，较前交易日变动-0.13元/公斤，现货基差LH09+15，较前交易日变动-150。 据农业农村部监测，6月18日"农产品批发价格200指数"为112.64，比昨天下降0.19个点，"菜篮子"产品批发价格指 数为112.64，比昨天下降0.22个点。全国农产品批发市场猪肉平均价格为20.24元/公斤，与昨天持平；牛肉63.80元/ 公斤，比昨天上升0.4%；羊肉59.87元/公斤，比昨天上升0.7%；鸡蛋7.15元/公斤，比昨天下降1.4%；白条鸡16.99 元/公斤，比昨天上升0.6%。 市场分析 综合来看， ...

投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2012】31号 ITG国贸期货 l数据已 国贸期货研究院 投资咨询号: Z0021658 农产品研究中心 黄向岚 从业资格号:F03110419 2025/6/18 | 指标 | | 6月17日 | 涨跌 | | 豆粕主力合约基差(张家港) | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 大连 | -24 | -29 | 2500 2000 | ===== 19/20 ===== 20/21 ===== 21/22 ===== 22/23 | | - 23/24 | 24/25 | | | 天津 日照 | -94 -124 | -29 | 1500 1000 | | | | | | 43%豆粕现货基差 | | | | | | | | | | | 张家港 | -154 | -29 | -500 | | | | | | (对主力合约) | | | | 09/21 | 10/22 11/22 12/23 01/23 02/23 03/25 04/25 05/26 06/26 07/27 | | | ...

农产品日报 | 2025-06-18 苹果套袋工作陆续收尾，红枣购销相对清淡 苹果观点 近期市场资讯，苹果市场库内交易不温不火，整体询价客户不多，产区新季苹果套袋工作陆续收尾。西部产区客 商货源找货热度不高，个别冷库货源出现水烂点等质量问题，持货商整体惜售情绪减弱；山东产区大果及好果走 货一般，客商寻货不积极。销区市场市场走货一般，消暑类水果存在一定冲击。陕西洛川产区目前库内70#起步果 农统货4.2-4.5元/斤，70#起步半商品4.5-5.0元/斤，以质论价。 山东栖霞产区果农三级2.5-3元/斤，果农80#以上统 货3-3.5元/斤，80#一二级条纹4.0-4.5元/斤，80#一二级片红3.8-4.0元/斤。 市场分析 昨日苹果期价收涨，产区交易出现分化，正处淡季，总体来看市场需求一般，新季果套袋工作陆续收尾，果农出 售意愿或增强，关注走货是否好转及产区最新情况。苹果销售处于淡季，瓜果类及消暑类水果需求逐渐增加，苹 果走量下滑。目前产区处于套袋农忙阶段，看货客商数量减少，客商自行发货为主，走货明显放缓，因前期去库 节奏较快，目前走货速度慢于去年同期，少量持货商略存抗价惜售情绪；晚富士产区出库较期前略缓慢 ...

Research Views Corn - Monday saw corn reducing positions and adjusting, with the main funds of the July contract shifting to the September contract, which became the main contract. The futures price fluctuated around the 2400 yuan mark. The wheat price increase supported corn in the spot market. Last week, Northeast corn prices were mainly strong, and traders were reluctant to sell at lower prices. The purchase prices of deep - processing enterprises in the Northeast also increased. Over the weekend, North China corn prices were generally stable with a slight upward trend. Some Shandong deep - processing enterprises raised corn prices by 10 yuan/ton. The corn price in the sales area was stable. The high corn price limited downstream acceptance, and wheat substitution restricted corn's increase. Technically, corn's recent positions have been decreasing. After the long - position holders take profits, pay attention to whether the September price can break through 2400 yuan. Participate in short - term long positions with a light position. The view is "oscillation" [1]. Soybean Meal - On Monday, CBOT soybeans fell from their highs. Although the rise of US soybean oil was positive for soybean prices, rainfall in the production area was beneficial for crop growth, suppressing price increases. The crop report showed that the US soybean harvest was near the end, and the crops were growing well. Weak demand and sufficient global supply, along with abundant global wheat supply, dragged down soybean prices. In China, the sharp rise of edible oils made protein meals relatively weak, and capital adjustment of the oil - meal ratio pressured protein meals. Last week, domestic oil mills' soybean inventories decreased, soybean meal inventories increased, and unexecuted contracts decreased. The weekly soybean crushing exceeded 2.2 million tons, and the soybean meal inventory increased by 27,500 tons, with the inventory increase slowing down, indicating good terminal demand. Hold the 91 and 15 positive spreads of soybean meal and adopt a unilateral long - position strategy. The view is "oscillation and upward" [1]. Edible Oils - On Monday, BMD palm oil rose for the third consecutive day, following the rise of US soybean oil. The significant increase in the biodiesel blending target directly benefited soybean oil prices. High - frequency data showed that from June 1 - 15, Malaysian palm oil exports increased by 14.3% - 26.3% month - on - month, while production decreased by 4% month - on - month. In China, edible oils followed the upward trend, with palm oil leading the rise, followed by soybean oil, and rapeseed oil having a weaker increase. Last week, the inventory of the three major edible oils increased by 2.87% month - on - month. Domestic edible oil supply was sufficient. Pay attention to US biodiesel policies and crude oil. Participate in short - term trading, and buy September and sell January for soybean oil and palm oil. The view is "oscillation and upward" [1]. Eggs - On Monday, the main 2508 contract of egg futures strengthened after opening and then declined slightly at the end of the session, closing up 0.73% at 3582 yuan/500 kilograms. The 2509 contract adjusted narrowly, closing up 0.47%. The national egg price increased by 0.08 yuan/jin. In the short term, most egg prices in the production area increased, and in the sales area, procurement costs mostly increased. Terminal consumption improved, and traders generally followed the market. After the previous low egg prices, there was a slight rebound in the production area. However, considering the increasing supply before August and the adverse effects of the rainy season, the spot egg price is expected to be weak. It is recommended to wait and see, and pay attention to changes in farmers' culling willingness and feed raw material prices. The view is "oscillation" [1][2]. Live Pigs - On Monday, the pig price of the July contract increased, and the September contract was flat, with the price range moving up. The pig price in Henan increased, with the average slaughter price reaching 14.27 yuan/kg. The spot pig price stability supported the futures price. With the expected increase in the cost of corn and soybean meal, the price range of the September contract of live pigs moved up. Adopt a long - position strategy. The view is "upward" [2]. Market Information - In May, the value - added of industrial enterprises above designated size increased by 5.8% year - on - year and 0.61% month - on - month. From January to May, it increased by 6.3% year - on - year [3]. - China's macro - policies have effectively boosted consumption, production, and transformation and upgrading. The policy reserve is sufficient and can be adjusted according to the situation to support economic stability [3]. - Recently, imported soybeans have been arriving at ports intensively. As of the week ending June 13, the soybean crushing volume of domestic main oil mills was 2.26 million tons, up 10,000 tons week - on - week, 350,000 tons month - on - month, and 350,000 tons year - on - year. It is expected that the oil mills' operating rate will continue to rise, and the soybean crushing volume will be about 2.45 million tons this week [3]. - According to SGS, Malaysia's palm oil exports from June 1 - 15 were estimated to be 513,213 tons, a 14.3% increase from the same period last month [4]. Variety Spreads Contract Spreads - There are spread charts for contracts such as corn 9 - 1, corn starch 9 - 1, soybeans 9 - 1, soybean meal 9 - 1, soybean oil 9 - 1, palm oil 9 - 1, eggs 9 - 1, and live pigs 9 - 1 [5][6][8][9][13]. Contract Basis - There are basis charts for contracts such as corn, corn starch, soybeans, soybean meal, soybean oil, palm oil, eggs, and live pigs [14][15][19][20][26]. Research Team Members - Wang Na, the director of the agricultural product research at Everbright Futures Research Institute, has rich experience and many honors. Her futures trading consultation qualification number is Z0001262, and her email is wangn@ebfcn.com.cn [28]. - Hou Xueling, a soybean analyst at Everbright Futures, has more than ten years of futures experience and many honors. Her futures trading consultation qualification number is Z0013637, and her email is houxl@ebfcn.com.cn [28]. - Kong Hailan, a researcher on eggs and live pigs at Everbright Futures Research Institute, has relevant experience and honors. Her futures trading consultation qualification number is Z0013544, and her email is konghl@ebfcn.com.cn [28].

| 业期现日报 | 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可 [2011] 1292号 | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 王涛庭 | Z0019938 | 2025年6月16日 | | | | | | | | | | | 日期 | 6月13日 | 6月12日 | 张跃幅 | 狱跌 | | | | | | | | | 8130 | 8050 | 80 | 0.99% | 江苏一级 | 现价 | Y2509 | 7444 | 7394 | 50 | 0.68% | 期价 | | Y2509 | 686 | ୧୮୧ | 星差 | 30 | 4.57% | 09+270 | 09+270 | 现货墓差报价 | 江苏6月 | 0 | - | | 仓单 | 17552 | 17552 | 0 | 0.00% | 棕榈油 | | | | | | | | 6月13日 | 6月12日 | 涨跌 | 张跃幅 | 8350 | 2.16% | 广东24度 | 8530 | 180 | ...

| 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑及投机支撑阻力 | | --- | --- | --- | | | | 南美大豆产量基本确定，美豆种植开启，进度远高于去年及五年均值，且未来十五 天降雨充沛缺乏天气炒作，按照 CPC 月度展望来看，6 月降雨天气展望顺利。国内 | | | | 方面，国内港口及油厂大豆持续累库，随着开机率上升，豆粕供应将逐步缓解，逐 | | | | 步进入累库周期。饲料企业库存偏低，存在补库需求。5 月豆粕累库速度预计较为 | | 豆粕 | 短线反弹 | 缓和。5-7 月月均进口预估 1000 万吨以上，供应有逐步增加趋势。5 月美农报告偏 | | | | 利多。阿根廷暴雨导致收割延迟，减产担忧提振市场看多情绪，但实际减产预计有 | | | | 限。由于美豆种植顺利叠加国内豆粕累库，整体基本面依然偏空。昨日豆粕高位整 | | | | 理，关注技术短空机会。凌晨美农 6 月报告中性，美豆调整。主力【3025，3070】 | | | 至 | 目前油厂菜籽菜粕库存暂无压力，商业菜粕库存偏高利空近月 7 月菜粕价格。5 月 7 月菜籽进口同比大幅下降，加上加籽进口利润不佳，长期进口量预期偏低，供 | ...

油脂产业期现日报 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可 【2011】1292号 2025年6月13日 干泽辉 Z0019938 | | | | 现价 | 江苏一级 | 8050 | 8080 | -30 | -0.37% | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期价 | Y2509 | 7394 | 7390 | 4 | 0.05% | | 某差 | Y2509 | 656 | 690 | -34 | -4.93% | | 现货墓差报价 | 江苏6月 | 09+270 | 09+270 | 0 | | | 合单 | | 17552 | 17652 | -100 | -0.57% | 棕榈油 | | | 6月12日 | 6月11日 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 现价 | 广东24度 | 8350 | 8450 | -100 | -1.18% | | 期价 | P2509 | 7904 | 7898 | 6 | 0.08% | | 某差 | P2509 | 446 | 552 | -106 | -19.2 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The agricultural products sector shows mixed trends: pig prices rise significantly, sugar prices continue to fall, and other products have different price movements [1]. - The price trends of various agricultural products are affected by factors such as policies, international market conditions, supply - demand relationships, and technical indicators. 3. Summary by Variety (1) Pig - Focus: The 2509 contract of live pigs rises strongly, supported by the state's 10,000 - ton pork purchase and storage news, which boosts market confidence and encourages slaughter enterprises to increase pig - purchasing efforts [2]. - Technical analysis: The main 2509 contract closes with a long positive line, standing above the 20 - day moving average, with an expanding MACD red column. The recommended strategy is to hold a small - position long order, with support at 13,560 and resistance at 13,880 [2]. (2) Sugar - Focus: The 2509 contract of sugar continues to fall, dragged down by the weak external market. Brazil's sugar - making pace accelerates, and the sugar production prospects in India and Thailand are good, causing the ICE raw sugar futures price to decline [3]. - Technical analysis: The main 2509 contract continues to fall, below all moving averages, with a weak technical pattern. The recommended strategy is to hold a small - position short order, with support at 5,610 and resistance at 5,664 [3]. (3) Palm Oil - Focus: The 2509 contract of palm oil rebounds and fluctuates after a sharp decline, boosted by the rise in crude oil prices, but the rebound is limited due to the abundant supply in the producing areas. Malaysia's palm oil production and inventory increase in May [6]. - Technical analysis: The main 2509 contract rebounds slightly but is still below all moving averages, with a dead - cross sign in MACD. The recommended strategy is to hold a small - position short order at high prices, with support at 7,958 and resistance at 8,070 [6]. (4) Soybean Meal - Focus: The 2509 contract of soybean meal oscillates upward. The agreement framework reached between China and the United States boosts market sentiment. The rising cost of imported Brazilian soybeans and the oil mills' increased willingness to support prices contribute to the rise [7]. - Technical analysis: The main 2509 contract oscillates at a high level, above the moving - average system, with an expanding MACD red column. The recommended strategy is to hold a small - position long order, with support at 3,031 and resistance at 3,065 [7]. (5) Corn - Focus: The 2507 contract of corn adjusts at a high level. Although supported by the wheat purchase - storage policy, it faces resistance at high levels, and long - position liquidation leads to a price correction [9]. - Technical analysis: The main 2507 contract continues to adjust but remains above the moving averages. The recommended strategy is to hold a long order, with support at 2,364 and resistance at 2,387 [9]. (6) Cotton - Focus: The 2509 contract of cotton oscillates narrowly after a continuous rise, supported by the positive news of China - US economic and trade talks. The domestic textile market is in the off - season, but the inventory is declining [11]. - Technical analysis: The main 2509 contract fluctuates at a high level, with a golden - cross above the MACD zero - axis and an expanding red column. The recommended strategy is to hold a small - position long order, with support at 13,490 and resistance at 13,600 [11]. (7) Soybean Oil - Focus: The 2509 contract of soybean oil continues to decline, pressured by the increasing domestic supply. The large arrival of imported soybeans and the high operating rate of oil mills lead to a significant accumulation of soybean oil inventory [13]. - Technical analysis: The main 2509 contract continues to decline, below the moving - average system. The recommended strategy is to hold a small - position short order, with support at 7,666 and resistance at 7,728 [13]. (8) Eggs - Focus: The 2508 contract of eggs oscillates downward. The high inventory of laying hens and weak demand during the off - season put pressure on the egg futures price [16]. - Technical analysis: The main 2508 contract oscillates downward, below the moving - average system. The recommended strategy is to hold a small - position short order, with support at 3,450 and resistance at 3,500 [16]. (9) Apples - Focus: The 2510 contract of apples continues to rebound with intraday oscillations. Low inventory and production - reduction expectations support the price, but the limited demand in the off - season restricts the rebound space [17]. - Technical analysis: The main 2510 contract rebounds and oscillates, standing above the 5 - day moving average. The recommended strategy is to hold a short order, with support at 7,478 and resistance at 7,600 [19]. (10) Peanuts - Focus: The 2510 contract of peanuts continues to fall, reaching a one - month low. Weak terminal demand and increased supply from some holders selling off pressure the peanut price [20]. - Technical analysis: The main 2510 contract continues to fall, below the moving - average system, with an expanding MACD green column. The recommended strategy is to hold a small - position short order, with support at 8,180 and resistance at 8,230 [22].

Report Investment Ratings - Soybeans (including domestic and imported): ☆☆☆ [1] - Soybean Meal: ☆☆☆ [1] - Soybean Oil: ☆☆☆ [1] - Palm Oil: ☆☆☆ [1] - Rapeseed Meal: ★☆☆ [1] - Rapeseed Oil: ★☆☆ [1] - Corn: ☆☆☆ [1] - Live Pigs: ☆☆☆ [1] - Eggs: ★☆☆ [1] Core Views - The soy - related market is influenced by factors such as trade agreements, weather, and supply - demand balance. The price trend is complex and requires attention to weather changes from June to August [2][3][6]. - The domestic rapeseed market is supported by factors like the weather in Canadian rapeseed - producing areas, Sino - Canadian trade relations, and the peak consumption season of aquatic feed, with a short - term bullish outlook [4]. - The palm oil price is affected by factors such as market position reduction, weather in the US soybean - producing areas, and the production cycle, with a need to guard against the impact of US soybean weather speculation [6]. - The corn market is affected by factors such as the wheat purchase plan and trade agreements, showing a short - term volatile trend [7]. - The live pig market has short - term downward pressure on spot prices and medium - term support for far - end prices due to policy adjustments [8]. - The egg market is in a downward trend, with the current price not reaching the cyclical bottom, and attention should be paid to multiple influencing factors [9]. Summary by Categories Soybeans - Domestic soybean prices are affected by import prices and weather. The key months of 7 - 8 during the growth period face risks of high temperature and low precipitation, and weather is expected to be the main driver of price fluctuations [2]. - After the Sino - US London trade meeting, the soybean meal market is in a wide - range shock. The supply of domestic soybeans is relatively abundant, but the cost of importing Brazilian soybeans has increased, and the market should be treated as volatile, with attention to weather - driven price increases from June to August [3]. Rapeseed - The rapeseed market is affected by the short - term positive signals of Sino - US economic and trade consultations, the weather in Canadian rapeseed - producing areas, and Sino - Canadian trade relations. Coupled with the peak consumption season of aquatic feed, the domestic rapeseed futures price has short - term support, and the strategy is bullish [4]. Palm Oil and Soybean Oil - The palm oil price has stabilized. The European Meteorological Center's forecast shows that the US soybean - producing areas may face high temperature and low precipitation in 7 - 8. Palm oil is in the production - increasing period in the second and third quarters, and price fluctuations are expected, with a need to guard against the impact of US soybean weather speculation [6]. Corn - The launch of the wheat minimum purchase price plan in Henan has driven the bullish sentiment of corn. After the continuous rise of corn futures, the trend has eased. The future wheat - corn price difference may widen, and the corn futures may continue to fluctuate in the short term [7]. Live Pigs - The live pig futures rebounded, and the spot price was slightly adjusted. In the short term, there is downward pressure on the spot price due to the accelerated slaughter of group farms. In the medium term, policy adjustments will reduce the long - term supply pressure and support the far - end price [8]. Eggs - The egg futures continued to increase positions and hit new lows, and the spot price continued to decline in most areas. The current egg price has not reached the cyclical bottom, and attention should be paid to factors such as production capacity changes, chicken culling sentiment, and the rainy season [9].