今日晚间重要公告抢先看——比亚迪2025年新能源汽车累计销量460万辆，同比增长7.73%；龙蟠科技 拟投资不超过20亿元建设高性能锂电池正极材料项目；宁德时代累计回购1599万股，成交总金额为 43.86亿元。 【重大事项】 梦网科技：与神州六合签署6000万元无人机研发生产合作协议 梦网科技（002123）公告，公司与江西神州六合直升机有限责任公司签署《合作协议》，共同研发和生 产重载吊运无人机产品，研发总金额为6000万元。该合作为双方初步意向，具体实施以后续签订的合同 为准。公司与神州六合签署《合作协议》，旨在拓展新的业务增长点和赛道。神州六合成立于1993年， 神州六合拥有直升机机电类，航电类，复合材料成型等核心专业技术能力，以及完整的航空装备研发生 产体系。 金财互联：拟6343万元收购机器人零部件公司无锡三立51%股权 金财互联（002530）公告，公司拟使用自有资金6343.08万元，通过股权收购及增资方式取得无锡三立 机器人技术有限公司51%股权。交易完成后，无锡三立将成为公司控股子公司，纳入公司合并报表范 围。本次通过股权转让及增资取得无锡三立51%的股权，将热处理技术直接延伸至机器人零部 ...

市场波动较大， 建议观望 碳酸锂月报 2026/01/04 0755-23375139 zengyuke@wkqh.cn 从业资格号：F03121027 交易咨询号：Z0023147 曾宇轲（有色金属组） CONTENTS 目录 01 月度评估及策略推荐 04 需求端 02 期现市场 05 库存 03 供给端 06 成本端 01 月度评估及策略推荐 月度要点小结 ◆ 期现市场：12月31日，五矿钢联碳酸锂现货指数（MMLC）早盘报116867元，月涨25.6%。MMLC电池级碳酸锂均价为117250元。同日广期所 LC2605收盘价121580元，本周涨26.1%。 ◆ 供给：12月31日，SMM国内碳酸锂周度产量报22450吨，环比增1.2%。2025年12月国内碳酸锂产量99200吨，环比增4.0%，同比增42.4%，全年 同比增43.6%。 ◆ 需求：据乘联分会，12月1-28日，全国乘用车新能源车市场零售119.2万辆，同比去年12月同期增长5%，较上月同期增长1%，今年以来累计 零售1266.4万辆，同比增长18%。1月湖南裕能、万润新材、德方纳米和常州锂源等头部磷酸铁锂企业减产，淡季需求回落。 ◆ ...

电话：021-20321091 邮箱：liufang@cnhbstock.com 021-20515355 相关研究报告 1、《继续耐心布局高景气 —策略周报》 2025-12-21 2、《由守转攻，布局高景气方向等风起 —策略周报》2025-12-07 3、《全球共振高位调整，耐心等待情绪 企稳 —策略周报》2025-11-23 4、《沪指围绕 4000 点震荡整固，轮动 有所加快 —策略周报》2025-11-09 5、《波动再度放大，如何应对？ —策略 周报》2025-10-12 2026 年 01 月 04 日 证券研究报告 | 策略周报 跨年波动或有上升，不改高景气主线 策略周报 分析师：郝一凡 分析师登记编码：S0890524080002 电话：021-20321080 邮箱：haoyifan@cnhbstock.com 分析师：刘芳 分析师登记编码：S0890524100002 投资要点 【债市方面】跨年后债市情绪有望缓和，仍以震荡思维对待。跨年后，兑现 浮盈的压力减轻，债市情绪有望迎来修复。但当前央行释放的信号仍显示出短 期内降息概率较低，因而收益率也缺乏向下突破动能，建议仍以中性思维对 待，维 ...

Core Viewpoint - The precious metals market experienced a "super bull" trend in 2025, with gold, silver, platinum, and palladium reaching historical highs, driven by various macroeconomic factors and increased demand from central banks [1][6][11]. Price Performance - In 2025, COMEX gold and silver contracts saw annual maximum increases of 66% and 187%, respectively, while London spot gold and silver rose by 75% and 192% [1][2]. - Platinum and palladium also experienced significant gains, with NYMEX platinum and palladium contracts rising over 185% and 136%, respectively [1][2]. Market Dynamics - Gold prices surged in three phases throughout 2025, with notable increases in the first quarter and a subsequent high-level consolidation phase before another rise in the latter part of the year [3]. - Silver's price increase was concentrated in the fourth quarter, with COMEX silver rising from under $40/oz to $79.7/oz [4]. Supply and Demand Factors - The global silver market faced a deficit of approximately 5,835 tons in 2025, driven by low mining output and strong demand from sectors like 5G and renewable energy [8][9]. - Platinum and palladium also faced supply shortages, with the global platinum market expected to have a supply gap of 69,200 ounces in 2025 [10]. Influencing Factors - Multiple factors supported the rise in gold prices, including risk premiums, a rate-cutting cycle, and increased central bank purchases [6][7]. - The correlation between gold and silver prices remained high, with gold's price increases often leading to similar movements in silver [8]. Future Outlook - Analysts expect precious metals to maintain strength into 2026, with gold potentially reaching $5,000/oz, supported by ongoing monetary easing and geopolitical factors [11][13]. - The demand for silver and platinum is anticipated to grow due to the energy transition and industrial applications, despite potential short-term corrections [12][13].

中经记者 李哲 北京报道 据新华社报道，美国东部时间2026年1月3日上午，美国总统特朗普在发布会上确认，美军突袭位于委内 瑞拉首都加拉加斯市中心的"一座戒备森严的军事堡垒"，抓走委内瑞拉总统马杜罗。 特朗普表示，美国大型石油公司将前往委内瑞拉。"我们将让美国那些规模庞大的石油公司——它们是 全球最大的石油企业——投入数十亿美元，维修严重破败的石油基础设施。" 《中国经营报》记者了解到，委内瑞拉是全球重要的产油国，也是OPEC（石油输出国组织）的成员 国，其原油产量约占全球原油总产量的1%。此前，在美国对委内瑞拉展开制裁后，该国暂时被排除在 了减产或增产的行列之外。 此前，在俄乌冲突初期，国际油价曾出现大幅上涨。2022年2月23日布伦特原油价格为每桶96.8美元。2 月24日冲突爆发后，油价快速飙升，3月7日盘中一度突破每桶139美元，创出13年来新高。 对外经济贸易大学中国国际碳中和经济研究院执行院长董秀成向记者表示，在全球能源版图上，委内瑞 拉具有重要的战略地位，其拥有全球最大的探明石油储量，油气产业曾经有过辉煌的历史。但是，由于 委内瑞拉长期与美国交恶而被制裁，导致发展步伐趋缓，处于艰难的困境。 如今 ...

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market is witnessing a wave of positive earnings forecasts for 2025, with several representative companies from various sectors reporting expected net profit increases of over 25%, and some exceeding 300%, indicating strong growth momentum [2] Group 1: Company Performance - Salt Lake Co. expects a net profit of 8.29 billion to 8.89 billion yuan for 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 77.78% to 90.65% [3] - Tianqi Lithium anticipates a net profit of 1.1 billion to 1.6 billion yuan for 2025, with a growth rate of 127.31% to 230.63% [4] - Hualing Steel forecasts a net profit of 2.6 billion to 3 billion yuan for 2025, reflecting a growth of 27.97% to 47.66% [7] - Shougang Co. expects a net profit of 920 million to 1.06 billion yuan for 2025, indicating a growth of 95.29% to 125.01% [8] - Chuanhua Zhihui anticipates a net profit of 540 million to 700 million yuan for 2025, with a significant increase of 256.07% to 361.57% [8] - Kidswant projects a net profit of 275 million to 330 million yuan for 2025, showing a growth of approximately 51.72% to 82.06% [9] Group 2: Growth Drivers - Salt Lake Co.'s growth is attributed to stable production and sales of potassium fertilizer and lithium carbonate, along with favorable pricing and new lithium salt projects [4] - Tianqi Lithium's performance is driven by increased demand for electric vehicle batteries and energy storage, rising raw material prices, and strong customer relationships [5][6] - Hualing Steel's growth is supported by its transformation towards high-end, green, and intelligent production, alongside stable operational performance [7] - Shougang Co. leverages technological innovation and digital empowerment to enhance its manufacturing and service capabilities [8] - Chuanhua Zhihui focuses on market demand and optimizes its logistics and chemical business strategies for significant performance improvement [8] - Kidswant's growth strategy includes expanding product categories and enhancing supply chain efficiency, alongside strategic acquisitions to strengthen its market position [9][10]

供需双强支撑价格上涨，关注库存及需求拐点 新能源及有色金属月报 | 2026-01-04 库存端：月内库存持续降低，各环节库存均出现明显下滑。根据SMM月度库存统计，总库存64560吨，总库存降环 比变化-19674万吨，其中锂盐厂22530吨，下游库存42030吨。月底去库速度有减缓趋势，需关注库存拐点。 12 月氢氧化锂市场价格跟随碳酸锂走势大幅上涨。截止到12月31日国内电池级氢氧化锂市场均价水平在110300元 /吨，工业级氢氧化锂均价水平在103730元/吨。受上游碳酸锂期货价格强势上涨及锂辉石原料成本持续高位的双重 支撑，氢氧化锂生产成本具备刚性支持，市场底部坚实。氢氧化锂产线整体开工负荷偏低，头部锂盐厂产能被长 协订单锁定，加之柔性产线向价差更优的碳酸锂倾斜以及个别装置检修，导致现货市场流通资源持续偏紧状态， 持货商惜售挺价意愿强烈，报价维持高位区间。下游三元材料企业采购以执行长单为主，散单市场保持刚性、小 批量的生产需求支撑，对当前高价货源的接受度有限，尤其在长协谈判周期内，市场观望情绪较浓。本月内氢氧 化锂与碳酸锂价差持续存在，刺激了部分碳化需求及贸易环节的询盘积极性，为市场带来一定增量。 ...

新能源及有色金属月报 | 2026-01-04 3. 加工端，12 月锡加工环节呈现因价高抑制需求而导致被动累库的特征。焊锡条（Sn99.3Cu0.7）加工费环比持平 于 9 000元/吨至9 500 元/吨，但贸易商反馈订单量环比下滑 12%，中小型焊料厂因现金流紧张减少 15–20% 采购； 无铅锡膏受消费电子低迷拖累，龙头企业出货量环比降 8%，仅光伏焊带用高银锡膏保持 3% 小幅增长。镀锡板 方面，宝钢、河钢 12 月出厂价上调 300 元/吨，但终端罐头食品厂因高价缩减 10% 节前备货，马口铁社会库存 升至 18 个月高位；锡合金（巴氏合金、铅锡阳极）受铅价走弱拖累，订单环比持平。进入 1 月，焊料企业春节 放假较往年提前 3至5 天，预计加工品需求再降 8–10%。而光伏 TOPCon 与 HJT 新扩 4 GW 产能将在 1 月下旬 陆续投料，光伏焊带需求有望环比回升 5%，部分对冲传统焊料淡季缺口，加工费大概率持稳。 4. 终端方面，12 月终端消费传统需求偏冷、新兴能源呈现向好的格局。消费电子领域，手机出货量 2 800 万部， 环比降 7%，TWS 耳机、笔记本电脑库存天数分别升至 11 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is maintained as "Increase" [4] Core Insights - The annual negotiated electricity price has been established, leading to a significant drop in trading prices in Jiangsu and Zhejiang for 2026, with a decrease of 16.5% and 16.4% respectively. The new energy price subsidy in January is at a maximum of 6.17 cents per kilowatt-hour [3][13] - The electricity market is undergoing a restructuring with the full entry of new energy sources, which is expected to bring about a new equilibrium in electricity pricing sooner than anticipated [3] - The report highlights the performance of various sectors within the electricity industry, noting a general decline in stock prices for most listed companies in the power and utilities sector [6][63] Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The average trading price for electricity in Jiangsu for 2026 is 344.19 yuan per megawatt-hour, down 16.5% year-on-year, while in Zhejiang it is 344.85 yuan per megawatt-hour, also down 16.4% [13] - The total transaction volume in Jiangsu's electricity market for 2026 is 272.481 billion kilowatt-hours, with a weighted average price of 344.19 yuan per megawatt-hour [13] - The report indicates that the electricity prices in 28 regions have been adjusted downwards, with reductions ranging from 0.65% to 24.68% [3][13] Market Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3968.84 points, up 0.13%, while the CSI 300 Index closed at 4629.94 points, down 0.59%. The CITIC Power and Utilities Index closed at 3042.43 points, down 2.35%, underperforming the CSI 300 Index by 1.76 percentage points [6][63] - Most stocks in the power and utilities sector experienced declines, with notable drops in companies such as Guodian Power and Huaneng International [67] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on high-dividend coal-fired power leaders and companies with stable electricity prices and coal-electric integration, such as Huaneng International, Huadian International, and Guodian Power [3] - It also recommends investing in flexible coal-fired power transformation leaders and companies in the wind and solar sectors, such as Xintian Green Energy and Longyuan Power [3] - For the gas sector, it highlights quality leaders like Chengran and New Hope Energy, which are expected to recover profits while maintaining stable dividends [3]

Group 1 - The core strategy for investing in stocks, particularly in cyclical commodities like non-ferrous metals, is to follow futures prices rather than market trends [1] - In 2025, gold prices experienced significant fluctuations, with COMEX gold futures rising over 60% for the year, marking the strongest annual performance since 1979 [1] - Copper prices also surged, with LME three-month copper reaching a historical peak of $12,960 per ton, and Shanghai copper futures surpassing 100,000 yuan per ton for the first time [1] Group 2 - The recent copper price rally is attributed to the weakening of the US dollar, which directly boosts prices and reduces holding costs, benefiting non-ferrous metals from the Fed's interest rate cuts [2] - Jiangxi Copper's acquisition of the Cascavel copper-gold mine, which holds 12.2 million tons of copper and over 30 million ounces of gold, is expected to double copper production by 2028 [2] - The macroeconomic narrative of "green inflation" and "interest rate cuts" provides strong support for the sector's prosperity, with structural demand for copper driven by AI and new energy [2] Group 3 - The outlook for copper prices in 2026 is optimistic, with expectations of further price increases due to limited new supply and ongoing demand from new energy and grid upgrades [2] - Investment plans for 2026 include holding stocks like Tongling Nonferrous Metals and Northern Copper, while observing Jiangxi Copper as an industry leader [2] - The international market for gold, silver, and copper futures reached new highs by the end of 2025, indicating a strong upward trend in non-ferrous metals [2]