华尔街策略师发出警报，称随着贸易关税的影响开始显现，美国经济正走向滞胀，这可能限制美联储大幅降息的能力。 分析师们表示，尽管投资者迄今在很大程度上对这些预警信号不以为意，但数据显示，一段通胀粘性强且经济增长乏力的时期即将到来。 除美元外，其他资产尚未显现出这些担忧的迹象，美元兑一篮子货币汇率年初至今下跌了8%。标普500指数今年多次创下纪录，美国国债指数有望迎来2020 年以来的最佳表现。 交易员认为通胀已得到控制，正大举押注美联储今年将降息两次，首次降息最早可能在下月。上周五美国劳动力市场报告显示近几个月就业增长放缓后，这 种押注进一步升温。 但策略师们警告，美国总统特朗普大范围的新关税已于周四生效，可能颠覆这一前景——因更高的价格将转嫁给消费者和企业，可能推高物价。 "市场显然预期美联储会降息，但通胀上行风险显著，"阿波罗全球管理公司首席经济学家托尔斯滕·斯洛科（Torsten Slok）周四在报告中写道，"核心结论 是，滞胀担忧正加剧。" "通胀卡在目标上方，"美国银行全球研究部分析师周一在报告中写道，并补充称他们坚持认为美联储今年不会降息，"我们看到的是滞胀，而非衰退。" 明尼阿波利斯联储主席尼尔·卡 ...

市场对关税及货币政策走向关注度较高。Ameriprise首席市场策略师Anthony Saglimbene指出，围绕关税和贸易有诸多因素需消化，当前市场更专注于经济背 景和企业盈利等可消化因素。 【环球网财经综合报道】截至收盘，美股三大指数呈现分化走势。道琼斯工业平均指数下跌0.51%，报43968.64点；标普500指数微跌0.08%，报6340点；纳 斯达克综合指数上涨0.35%，报21242.70点，盘中一度涨超1%。 道指30只成分股中，14家上涨、16家下跌。赛富时跌幅居前，下跌3.33%；卡特彼勒下跌2.48%。苹果表现亮眼，继前一交易日涨超5%后，当日再涨 3.18%。此前在8月6日，苹果宣布将向美国新增1000亿美元投资并推进"美国制造计划"，美国总统特朗普在相关会议上表示，苹果将可豁免芯片和半导体关 税。 交易员普遍押注美联储今年将降息两次，其中一次或于下月实施，但有策略师警告，特朗普关税政策可能影响这一预期。阿波罗管理公司首席经济学家 Torsten Slok认为，市场虽预期降息临近，但通胀上行风险巨大，滞胀主题正在加剧。 尾盘消息显示，特朗普已选定现任白宫经济顾问委员会主席斯蒂芬·米兰（ ...

随着新一轮关税政策效应逐步显现，华尔街策略师纷纷发出警告：美国经济正滑向滞胀泥潭，这可能严 重制约美联储降息操作空间。 尽管投资者目前尚未重视这些预警信号，但多项经济数据显示，美国即将面临通胀高企与经济疲软并存 的困境。分析师指出，当前市场除美元外尚未显现明显恐慌迹象——标普500指数年内屡创新高，美债 指数有望创2020年以来最佳表现，而美元指数已较一篮子货币下跌8%。 认为通胀得到控制的交易员大举押注美联储今年将降息两次，首次降息预期已提前至下月。这种预期在 周五疲软的就业报告公布后进一步强化。但策略师们警告，特朗普政府周四生效的全面关税政策可能颠 覆市场预期，随着涨价压力向消费端传导，通胀风险正急剧上升。 "市场对降息预期强烈，但通胀上行风险不容忽视，"阿波罗全球管理首席经济学家Torsten Slok周四在研 报中强调，"关键在于，市场中的滞胀叙事正在持续强化。"就业数据公布后美债虽创下2023年底以来最 大涨幅，但本周十年期国债收益率稳定在4.22%，显示市场重归平静。 Slok的观点获得包括纽约梅隆银行、美国银行、TD Securities和Brown Brothers在内的多家机构策略师呼 应。 ...

纽约联邦储备银行7日发布的一份月度调查显示，今年7月，美国消费者对未来一年的通货膨胀预期升至 3.1%。 调查显示，受访者感知到的一年内失业概率上升0.4个百分点至14.4%。更多受访家庭表示获得信贷的难 度加大，且未来三个月无力偿还最低还款额的可能性有所上升。 消费者通胀预期的上升将强化那些希望暂时"按兵不动"的美联储官员立场。今年以来，美联储一直维持 联邦基金利率目标区间在4.25%至4.5%之间的水平不变。 报道称，除通胀数据外，美联储官员也在密切关注劳动力市场数据。近期美国招聘活动呈现急剧放缓迹 象，这或许将为美联储降息提供更多依据。 有华尔街策略师警告称，随着加征关税的影响逐步显现，美国经济正面临滞胀风险。在此背景下，投资 者需警惕高通胀与低增长并存的经济局面。 根据纽约联储发布的2025年7月《消费者预期调查》，受访者对未来三年的通胀预期维持在3%，对未来 五年的通胀预期升至2.9%，达到今年2月以来的最高水平。 资讯编辑：沈一冰 021-26093395 资讯监督：乐卫扬 021-26093827 资讯投诉：陈跃进 021-26093100 当天，美国劳工部发布的数据显示，截至7月26日当周，全 ...

Group 1 - Wall Street strategists warn that the U.S. economy is sliding into stagflation, with tariff policies beginning to show their impact, potentially limiting the Federal Reserve's ability to cut interest rates significantly [1][4] - Analysts believe inflation is under control, betting on two rate cuts by the Federal Reserve this year, with the first cut possibly as early as next month [4] - Multiple investment banks have issued warnings about stagflation, with Apollo Management's chief economist stating that the market's expectation of rate cuts contrasts with significant inflation risks [5] Group 2 - The evolving tariff landscape is expected to be stagflationary, reducing growth while pushing up inflation, as noted by a macro strategist from Bank of New York Mellon [6][7] - Recent inflation data shows that the U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by 2.7% year-on-year in June, the highest since February, slightly above the expected 2.6% [7] - Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari acknowledged that tariffs are a major variable affecting the economy and could alter expectations for rate cuts if inflation rises due to tariffs [7]

Central Bank Actions - The People's Bank of China has increased its gold reserves to 7.396 million ounces as of the end of July, marking a month-on-month increase of 60,000 ounces and continuing a trend of nine consecutive months of accumulation, aligning with a global central bank gold buying spree [3][5] - The World Gold Council reported that global central bank gold purchases in the first half of 2024 exceeded the ten-year average by 40%, highlighting the importance of central bank demand for gold [3] ETF Inflows - As of August 6, the lowest fee gold ETF (518660) saw a net inflow of 98 million yuan over five days, with a total market size of 3.59 billion yuan and a year-to-date share growth rate of 182%, making it a preferred choice for investors [7] - The World Gold Council forecasts that global gold demand will reach 1,249 tons by the second quarter of 2025, with ETF investments contributing 170 tons, and the first half of 2024 recorded the highest ETF demand since 2020 at 397 tons [7] Changing Price Expectations - Citibank, known for its bearish stance on gold, has revised its price forecast upward, increasing the three-month target price from $3,300 to $3,500 per ounce, with a trading range of $3,300 to $3,600 per ounce [9] - The shift in Citibank's outlook is attributed to increasing risks of "stagflation" in the U.S. economy, with July non-farm payrolls increasing by only 73,000 and the unemployment rate rising to 4.1%, leading to heightened expectations for aggressive rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [10] Market Sentiment and Risks - Standard Chartered maintains an optimistic view, predicting gold prices could reach $3,400 per ounce in the next three months and remain at $3,500 per ounce over the next 12 months [11] - However, there are concerns about short-term upward momentum for gold prices, with risks of overheating in the market, as noted by招商证券, which suggests focusing on structural opportunities rather than broad bets on rising gold prices [12][13] - Key risk factors identified include potential policy reversals by the Federal Reserve, technical overbought conditions, competition from alternative assets like Bitcoin, and the possibility of reduced geopolitical premiums due to easing trade tensions [13]

Core Viewpoint - The Bank of England has lowered interest rates by 25 basis points, marking the fifth rate cut in the current cycle, amidst a divided policy meeting [1][3]. Group 1: Monetary Policy Decision - The decision to cut rates was reached after a split vote of 5 to 4, the first time since the Bank gained monetary policy decision-making authority in 1998 [3]. - Four members, including Governor Bailey, supported the 25 basis point cut, while one member initially favored a 50 basis point cut but ultimately agreed to the smaller reduction due to the voting deadlock [3]. - Four members, including the Deputy Governor and Chief Economist, opposed the rate cut, indicating a significant division within the committee [3]. Group 2: Economic Context - The decision reflects a conflict between rising inflation and a weak labor market, raising concerns about potential "stagflation" in the UK [6]. - The Bank of England noted an increase in inflation risks since May, particularly due to rising food prices, with inflation expected to reach 4% in September, surpassing the previous peak forecast of 3.7% [6]. - Despite a baseline expectation for inflation to decline, the committee warned that temporary inflation increases could exert upward pressure on wages and pricing [6]. Group 3: Economic Outlook - The Bank indicated that the UK's potential GDP growth remains subdued, with ongoing domestic and geopolitical risks to economic activity [6]. - There is a consensus among committee members that consumer spending faces downward risks, while savings rates may increase as households adopt more precautionary saving behaviors [6]. - Future decisions on reducing policy tightening will depend on whether deflationary pressures continue to ease [6]. Group 4: Market Reactions - Following the rate decision, the British pound rose against the US dollar, and UK government bond yields experienced a slight increase [7]. - The Bank also warned of signs of pressure in the long-term bond market ahead of the annual decision on quantitative tightening in September, suggesting a potential slowdown in the pace of long-term bond sales [9].

北京时间周四晚间，英国央行如期在一场意见严重分裂的政策会议后降息25个基点。这也是英国央行本轮降息周期的第5次降息，维持了每个季度降一次息 的谨慎节奏。 在这两派人背后，是通胀上升与就业市场疲软之间的矛盾。这种情况也引发了市场对英国可能进入"滞胀"的担忧。从周四开始，英国也要面对美国的所 谓"对等关税"生效，适用税率为10%。 英国央行在同步刊出的会议纪要中表示，自五月以来通胀上行风险"略有上升"，特别是食品价格上涨。官员们目前预期，通胀将会在今年9月达到4%，超越 此前3.7%的预测峰值。虽然基线预测是通胀后续将回落，但委员会也警告称，暂时性通胀上升可能对工资和价格制定过程施加额外的上行压力。 值得一提的是，今天也是英国央行自1998年获得货币政策决策权以来，首次需要进行两轮投票才勉强达成5比4结果的利率决议。 英国央行介绍称，在9人构成的货币政策委员会中，包括行长贝利在内的4名委员投票支持降息25个基点，另一名委员艾伦·泰勒原本倾向于降息50个基点， 但因为投票僵局最终支持更小幅度的降息。包括英国央行副行长隆巴德利、首席经济学家休·皮尔在内的4人则坚持不应该降息。 与之相对的是英国经济的低迷。英国央行表示 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent shift in the Federal Reserve's stance towards interest rate cuts, highlighting the economic challenges and pressures that have led to this potential decision [4][5][6]. Group 1: Economic Indicators and Federal Reserve Actions - The Federal Reserve has been caught in a dilemma between persistent inflation and a weakening economy, with core PCE inflation at 2.8% as of June [4]. - Recent employment data shows a significant drop, with only 73,000 new jobs added in July, far below the expected 110,000, indicating a cooling labor market [9]. - The unemployment rate has risen to 4.2%, raising concerns about a potential recession, with a 40% risk of stagflation predicted by Morgan Stanley [4][10]. Group 2: Market Reactions and Predictions - Following signals from Federal Reserve officials supporting rate cuts, market expectations for a September rate cut have surged from 37% to over 75% [6]. - Major financial institutions predict that if unemployment rises, the Federal Reserve may cut rates by 50 basis points in September [6][11]. - The consensus among market participants is that a rate cut is imminent, with probabilities reaching as high as 94.4% for a September cut [11]. Group 3: Implications for Domestic Markets - A potential rate cut by the Federal Reserve could positively impact the A-share market, although the actual economic recovery and market sentiment will be crucial for the next upward wave [13]. - The widening interest rate differential between China and the U.S. poses risks of capital outflow, but a U.S. rate cut could provide more flexibility for China's monetary policy [14]. - If the U.S. enters a stagflation scenario, the attractiveness of U.S. Treasuries may diminish, leading to higher nominal yields required to attract investors [15].

高盛、花旗高喊50基点降息不无可能之际，美银却劝大家冷静。 据追风交易台消息，8月6日，美银在研报中警告，美国持续的通胀风险，特别是核心个人消费支出（PCE）价格指数可能很快突破3%的关口，使得美联 储任何过早的降息都可能是一次"虚假启动"。 该行因此维持其对美联储今年将维持利率不变的判断。报告指出，尽管近期就业数据有所放缓，但美联储面临的根本问题是通胀。核心PCE通胀年率在过 去一年里基本停滞在2.8%，较美联储2%的目标高出80个基点。 美银模拟测算显示，核心PCE通胀年率最早可能在7月就触及3%的水平。他们认为，随着关税成本越来越多地转嫁给消费者，通胀前景的风险"坚定地偏 向上行"，这要求美联储在决定下一步政策时必须保持耐心。 这一预测甚至可能都"过于乐观"。该行分析师指出，由于实际生效的关税税率正稳定在高于其当前假设的水平，这意味着通胀见顶的高度可能更高，停留 在3%以上的时间可能更长，并可能引发非线性效应，给通胀预期带来上行压力。 这一判断基于一个核心事实：过去一年，尽管美联储维持高利率，但核心通胀始终未能有效回落，粘性十足。 价格压力凸显 近期美国的经济数据描绘了一幅复杂的图景，但价格上行的压力信 ...