智通财经APP获悉，英国经济在第二季度的表现好于预期，这让英国财政大臣里夫斯(Rachel Reeves)得 以松一口气，但也提高了英国央行进一步降息的门槛。 英国国家统计局周四公布的数据显示，英国第二季度GDP环比增长0.3%，超过经济学家和英国央行预 测的0.1%。继前两个月小幅下滑后，英国GDP在6月实现了0.4%的环比增长，是经济学家预测值的两 倍。 英国GDP在第一季度0.7%的增长被认为是制造商为应对美国关税而"人为"提振的，但英国首相斯塔默 (Keir Starmer)仍多次将英国在七国集团(G7)中表现优于其他成员国视为经济"触底反弹"的证据。 这些数据也使英国央行在是否继续降息方面面临更多不确定性。周二公布的统计数据显示，自去年10月 里夫斯提高税收的预算案以来，失业人数少于此前预期。交易员们已不再充分押注英国央行今年会进一 步降息，并预计基准利率将在明年稳定在3.5%。 英国央行在上周以经济活动减弱为理由实施了一年内的第五次降息。然而，近一半的货币政策委员会成 员反对这一决定，理由是对近期通胀上涨感到担忧。此次政策会议也是英国央行28年历史上首次需要两 轮投票才能达成最终利率决议的情况。 ...

Core Insights - The UK economy showed unexpected resilience in Q2, with GDP growth of 0.3% quarter-on-quarter, surpassing previous forecasts of 0.1% [1][4] - The strong economic performance comes amid multiple challenges, including a £26 billion tax hike and rising regulated prices [4] - The latest GDP data has altered market expectations, reducing the likelihood of further interest rate cuts this year [4][7] Economic Performance - All major economic sectors experienced growth in Q2, with services, particularly IT and healthcare, being the main drivers [5] - Manufacturing expanded by 0.3% despite higher export barriers to the US [5] - Real GDP per capita increased by 0.2% quarter-on-quarter and 0.7% year-on-year [5] Challenges Ahead - Despite positive Q2 data, the economic outlook remains challenging due to potential tax increases and new employment legislation [8] - The government is relying on economic growth to fund spending plans, but market concerns about further tax measures are causing hesitance in investment and spending [8] Government Response - Chancellor Rachel Reeves acknowledged the positive economic data but emphasized the need for further work to benefit the workforce [9] - Reeves plans to focus on investment and reforms to address weak productivity, including infrastructure improvements and planning system changes [9][10]

Group 1: Economic Performance Overview - The GDP data for major global economies in the first half of 2025 shows the US leading with a total of $14.93 trillion, followed by the EU at approximately $10 trillion, and China demonstrating strong resilience with steady growth [1] - The US GDP grew by 1.9% year-on-year, with a nominal growth rate of 4.4%, and a significant rebound in Q2 with an annualized growth rate of 3%, reversing a contraction of 0.5% in Q1 [3] - The EU's GDP for the first half of 2025 was around $10 trillion, with a year-on-year growth of 1.4%, while the EU Commission revised its annual growth forecast down from 1.5% to 1.1% [8] Group 2: Challenges in the US Economy - The US economy faces several challenges, including a decline in consumer spending, which contributed only 0.98% to GDP growth, the lowest since the pandemic [5] - Business investment in non-residential fixed assets dropped significantly from 23.7% growth in Q1 to 4.8% in Q2, indicating a lack of confidence among companies [5] - The labor market appears robust, but the actual labor force participation rate has decreased to 62.3%, with nearly half of new jobs created by the government [5] Group 3: EU Economic Issues - Germany, as the economic engine of the EU, experienced a 0.4% year-on-year decline in GDP in Q1, while France's growth of 0.8% fell short of expectations [7] - The euro's share in international payments has dropped to 22%, raising concerns about the risk of some countries moving away from using the euro [7] Group 4: China's Economic Resilience - China's GDP for the first half of 2025 was 66.05 trillion yuan, approximately $9.2 trillion, with a year-on-year growth of 5.3%, making it one of the highest among major economies [10] - Consumer spending is gradually recovering, with retail sales increasing by 3.7% year-on-year, and service consumption rising by 7.5% [12] - Investment in high-tech manufacturing grew by 10.1%, with emerging industries like new energy vehicles and integrated circuits maintaining double-digit growth [13] Group 5: Future Outlook and Development Models - Each major economy faces unique challenges: the US must address issues related to tariff policies and debt, the EU needs to manage internal imbalances and geopolitical pressures, while China aims to stabilize growth and accelerate the establishment of a new development framework [15] - China's development model, focusing on quality and efficiency rather than aggressive stimulus, is seen as a potential reference for other developing countries amid a complex global environment [15]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Economic growth shows mixed signals with high power plant daily consumption but weakening demand in some sectors such as real - estate and shipping [4][21]. - Inflation presents different trends, with CPI affected by falling pork prices and PPI influenced by declining oil prices [2][4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Economic Growth: Power Plant Daily Consumption Reaches a New High in Recent Years 3.1.1 Production: Power Plant Daily Consumption Reaches a New High in Recent Years - On August 12, the average daily consumption of 6 major power - generating groups was 955,000 tons, up 7.3% from August 5. On August 6, the daily consumption of power plants in eight southern provinces was 2.502 million tons, up 12.3% from July 31 [11]. - The daily consumption of coastal eight - province power plants reached a five - year high due to high - temperature and humid weather [11]. 3.1.2 Production: Partial Decline in Blast Furnace Operating Rate - On August 8, the national blast furnace operating rate was 83.8%, up 0.3 percentage points from August 1; the capacity utilization rate was 90.1%, down 0.2 percentage points from August 1. The blast furnace operating rate of Tangshan steel mills was 92.6%, down 0.8 percentage points from August 1 [14]. - There is a possibility of stricter environmental protection control in Tangshan due to air quality concerns [14]. 3.1.3 Production: Weakly Stable Tire Operating Rate - On August 7, the operating rate of truck all - steel tires was 61.0%, down 0.1 percentage points from August 1; the operating rate of car semi - steel tires was 74.4%, down 0.1 percentage points from August 1 [16]. - On August 7, the operating rate of polyester filament in the Jiangsu - Zhejiang region was 90.7%, down 0.9 percentage points from July 31; the operating rate of downstream looms was 55.8%, up 0.2 percentage points from July 31 [16]. 3.1.4 Demand: Nine - Consecutive - Day Decline in Container Shipping Freight Index - From August 1 - 12, the average daily sales area of commercial housing in 30 large and medium - sized cities was 175,000 square meters, down 12.5% from July, 15.9% from August last year, and 32.5% from August 2023 [21]. - In August, retail sales of cars decreased by 4% year - on - year, while wholesale sales increased by 16% year - on - year [23]. - On August 12, the prices of rebar, wire rod, hot - rolled coil, and cold - rolled coil increased by 0.6%, 1.0%, 2.0%, and 0.8% respectively compared to August 5. The inventory of five major steel products increased by 201,000 tons from August 1 to August 8 [30]. - On August 12, the national cement price index decreased by 0.1% compared to August 5. The average cement price has been falling both month - on - month and year - on - year [31]. - On August 12, the active glass futures contract price was 1,067 yuan/ton, down 0.6% from August 5. The decline in glass prices has slowed [36]. - On August 8, the CCFI index decreased by 2.6% and the SCFI index decreased by 3.9% compared to August 1. The container shipping market is in a wait - and - see state due to the uncertainty of Sino - US tariffs [40]. 3.2 Inflation: Pork Prices Fall to a One - Year Low 3.2.1 CPI: Pork Prices Fall to a One - Year Low - On August 12, the average wholesale price of pork was 20.3 yuan/kg, down 0.3% from August 5. The average wholesale price of pork in August decreased by 0.9% month - on - month and 24.2% year - on - year [48]. - The agricultural product price index's upward inflection point is later than in previous years. On August 12, the agricultural product wholesale price index increased by 0.8% from August 5 [54]. 3.2.2 PPI: Oil Prices Continue to Decline - On August 12, the spot prices of Brent and WTI crude oil were 67.6 and 63.2 dollars/barrel respectively, down 2.8% and 3.1% from August 5. The prices have been falling both month - on - month and year - on - year [55]. - On August 12, the LME 3 - month copper and aluminum prices increased by 1.1% and 1.7% respectively compared to August 5 [60]. - Most industrial product prices increased in August. The month - on - month increase of the domestic commodity index narrowed [60].

Group 1 - The Bank of England lowered the benchmark interest rate from 4.25% to 4%, marking the lowest level in over two years, amidst a divided vote within the Monetary Policy Committee [1][2] - The split decision reflects fundamental differences in economic outlook, highlighting a struggle between prioritizing inflation control and economic growth [2][3] - The current economic indicators show a slowdown in GDP growth, rising unemployment, and weak retail sales, indicating pressure on households, while some sectors like high-end manufacturing and green energy remain resilient [3][4] Group 2 - The decision to lower interest rates comes with risks, as maintaining high rates could exacerbate economic decline and increase unemployment, while premature easing could lead to currency depreciation and imported inflation [2][3] - The divergence in global monetary policy, with the Federal Reserve maintaining a restrictive stance and the European Central Bank signaling slight easing, places the Bank of England in a challenging position regarding capital flows and currency valuation [3][4] - Future policy decisions are expected to be data-dependent and characterized by short-cycle adjustments rather than a straightforward move towards easing, leading to prolonged uncertainty in the market [4]

二战以来，美国关税收入从未超过联邦政府总收入的2%，但这一比例现在已达3.1%。 美国关税收入在7月创下历史新高，根据美国财政部8月12日发布的数据，7月单月关税收入飙升至280亿 美元，较去年同期激增273%。本财政年度累计关税收入已达到1420亿美元。 目前，2025财政年度的关税收入占美国联邦总收入的3.1%。美国两党政策中心经济政策副总裁阿卡巴 斯（Shai Akabas）称，二战以来，美国关税收入从未超过联邦政府总收入的2%，现行政策可能将这一 比例推高至5%以上。 值得注意的是，进口关税由美国进口企业缴纳，但成本转嫁机制使得最终负担可能落在消费者身上。美 国劳工统计局（BLS）7月数据显示，进口价格指数环比微涨0.1%。由于该指数测算的是关税前价格， 说明大部分关税成本实际上由进口商承担，而非外国出口商。 伦敦政治经济学院欧洲研究所实践访问教授科多尼奥（Lorenzo Codogno）对第一财经记者表示，特朗 普时期的关税政策实质上是对美国进口商和消费者征收的附加税。他警告这种收入增长模式难以持 续："随着进口商品价格上涨，整体价格水平也将上升，这将压缩可支配收入，从而减少对进口商品的 需求，进口 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the impact of tariffs on inflation in the U.S., suggesting that the duration of tariffs (temporary vs. long-term) is more critical than their mere existence in determining inflationary pressures [4][11]. Tariff Classification - The paper categorizes post-World War II U.S. tariffs into two types: temporary and long-term, revealing that approximately 80% of historical tariff fluctuations are temporary [5][9]. Economic Behavior - If tariffs are perceived as temporary, businesses and consumers may adjust their purchasing behavior and reduce price increase pressures, potentially leading to a more stable economic environment [7][9]. - Conversely, if tariffs are seen as permanent, businesses are likely to incorporate costs into prices, resulting in a one-time price increase followed by stabilization [8][9]. Historical Examples - Historical instances, such as Nixon's 1971 import surcharge and Ford's 1975 oil import fee, demonstrate that temporary tariffs do not significantly impact inflation or economic growth, often coinciding with interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [10][11]. Market Sentiment - The market's primary concern is not whether tariffs are imposed but rather their expected duration, which influences economic cycles and Federal Reserve policies [11][13]. Federal Reserve's Dilemma - The Federal Reserve faces uncertainty in its decision-making, balancing concerns over inflation from tariffs with the need to respond to early signs of economic slowdown [14][15]. Emerging Concerns - Two significant narratives are developing in the market: the impact of data revisions on perceptions of economic stability and concerns regarding attacks on central bank independence, which historically correlate with higher inflation [18][19][20].

NIG的经济学家Min Joo Kang研报称，韩国低迷的私人部门招聘，尤其是制造业和 建筑业的招聘，可能 会在今年全年拖累整体经济增长。Kang表示，该国7月份经季节性调整的失业率从6月份的2.6%小幅降 至2.5%，但制造业就业人数连续第二个月下降，而建筑业在2025年的过去七个月中有六个月出现就业 人数减少。尽管疲软的国内需求需要韩国央行的政策支持，但该央行可能会将降息推迟到10月份，因为 缺乏当地房产价格正在降温的迹象。 ...

Group 1: Market Overview - The article discusses the recent trends in the gold and oil markets, highlighting the impact of economic data and geopolitical events on prices [2][6]. - The U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for July showed a month-on-month increase of 0.2% and a year-on-year increase of 2.7%, which was below market expectations [2]. - The market reacted to the CPI data with a short-term drop in the U.S. dollar and a spike in gold prices, indicating a temporary optimistic sentiment [2]. Group 2: Gold Market Analysis - The gold market is currently experiencing a wide-ranging oscillation between $3450 and $3250, with recent price action indicating a potential shift towards a bearish trend [3]. - After testing support levels around $3270/3280, gold prices rebounded but faced resistance at $3410, leading to a significant drop below key support levels [3][5]. - Short-term trading strategies suggest focusing on resistance levels between $3358 and $3370, while support levels are identified around $3335 to $3310 [5]. Group 3: Oil Market Analysis - The oil market saw a slight increase in prices due to the extension of tariff pauses between the U.S. and major Asian countries, alleviating trade concerns [6]. - Brent crude oil futures were reported at $66.65 per barrel, while WTI futures were at $63.89 per barrel, indicating a stable market environment [6]. - Technical analysis suggests that oil prices are in a downward trend, with a potential trading range identified between $62.80 and $64.60 [7].

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's SCHMID indicates that while the policy is somewhat restrictive, it is not overly so, and a restrictive policy is currently appropriate; economic growth remains robust, and inflation is still too high [1] Group 1 - The current monetary policy is described as having a certain level of restrictiveness, which is deemed suitable for the current economic conditions [1] - Economic growth is reported to be steady, suggesting resilience in the economy despite inflationary pressures [1] - Inflation levels are highlighted as being excessively high, indicating ongoing challenges for the economy [1]