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国家统计局回应第二季度GDP增长率预测指出,对于经济增长的预测,作为统计部门来讲一般不做这方面的预测,因为既作为数据生产者,又来进行预测,本身是存在一定矛盾的。从整个经济运行情况来看,全年经济还是有比较好的支撑。(中国网)
news flash· 2025-06-16 02:50
Group 1 - The National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) does not typically make predictions regarding GDP growth rates due to the inherent conflict of interest in being both a data producer and a forecaster [1] - The overall economic operation indicates that there is still relatively strong support for economic growth throughout the year [1]
美媒:破坏贸易将让美国经济损失3000亿美元
Huan Qiu Shi Bao· 2025-06-15 22:59
【环球时报报道 记者 肖震冬】第51届七国集团(G7)峰会于当地时间15日至17日在加拿大艾伯塔省卡 纳纳斯基斯举行。在美国总统特朗普再度返回G7峰会时,"他已经带领全球经济经历了一场过山车式的 起伏",彭博社13日报道称,而这一次,美国关税政策在国内外遭遇了日益增长的反对,"再次深刻地提 醒人们贸易战的高昂代价"。 同时,美国政府的关税政策也在挑战其作为多数国家主要经济伙伴的角色,及对全球经济议程的影响 力。彭博社的研究模型显示,美国关税政策可能使其在全球贸易中的份额从22%降至16%。这在亚洲市 场尤为明显,当前中国已是该地区多数国家最大贸易伙伴。原TPP成员国(亚太地区)对华贸易占比 23%,对美贸易仅占13%,关税政策可能将美国份额压至11%。 特朗普退出TPP的后果在8年后的今天仍然体现在盟友态度的转变上。 特朗普的关税也打击了许多美国 盟友的经济。随着出口下滑,加拿大等贸易伙伴正面临陷入衰退的可能性。日本和德国标志性的汽车行 业也面临着生存威胁。目前有三个G7成员(加拿大、日本和英国)已加入TPP的"继承者"《全面与进步 跨太平洋伙伴关系协定》(CPTPP)。报道援引日本内阁府前高级经济学家川崎健 ...
欧洲央行再降息或释放政策拐点信号
Jing Ji Ri Bao· 2025-06-15 22:00
日前,欧洲央行宣布将三大关键利率分别下调25个基点,旨在回应通胀回落与经济增长疲弱的现实,同 时应对全球贸易紧张局势带来的不确定性。不过,欧洲央行并未对整体前景过度悲观。欧洲央行已进入 政策微调阶段,降息动作仍然可能延续,但频率和幅度都将受到更多宏观环境与地缘政治因素影响。 日前,在最新一次货币政策会议上,欧洲央行决定将三大关键利率分别下调25个基点,这是该行自2024 年6月宣布降息以来第八次下调利率,虽符合市场预期,但这一次央行释放出的信号比"继续宽松"更耐 人寻味:当前的货币政策周期可能已经接近尾声。 大西洋两岸分化的货币政策及其对金融市场影响也成为分析人士观察的重点。随着欧洲央行将借贷成本 下调至2.00%,美欧两地利差已达到225个基点以上,为2019年9月以来的最高水平。通常而言,美国利 率上升会使美国资产更具吸引力,从而提振美元,但近期美元汇率走势却未如以往那般强劲。自今年1 月中旬以来,欧元兑美元已累计上涨超过13%。分析认为,美国预算赤字大幅扩张前景叠加美国贸易政 策带来的不确定性,已促使全球投资者慎重考虑对美投资,越来越多的资金开始转向相对稳定的欧元区 市场。 尽管多数通胀指标显示回归目标 ...
深观察丨美式关税恶果:在损人和害己之间循环
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-06-15 13:31
Global Economic Outlook - International financial institutions have recently downgraded global economic growth forecasts for this year, with the World Bank reducing its projection from 2.7% to 2.3% [1][3] - The World Bank's report indicates that nearly 70% of economies are experiencing a slowdown, with the potential for the average growth rate in the 2020s to be the lowest since the 1960s [1][3] Impact of Tariffs - The reports highlight that the U.S. tariff policies are not only hindering global economic growth but are also detrimental to the U.S. economy itself [1][6] - The OECD has also lowered its global growth forecast for the next two years to 2.9%, citing increased trade barriers and uncertainty in economic policies as significant factors affecting business and consumer confidence [4][6] U.S. Economic Projections - The U.S. economic growth forecast has been significantly reduced from 2.3% to 1.4% for this year, with projections for 2024 and 2025 at 1.6% and 1.5% respectively [3][4] - The U.S. economy has shown signs of contraction, with a reported GDP shrinkage of 0.2% in the first quarter, marking the first decline in nearly three years [12][14] Consumer and Business Impact - New tariffs on steel-derived products, effective from June 23, are expected to increase prices for consumers significantly, with some products potentially tripling in cost [6][9] - The aggressive tariff policies have led to job losses in the U.S. manufacturing sector, with estimates indicating a loss of 75,000 jobs since the implementation of steel and aluminum tariffs in 2018 [9][12] Trade Data Fluctuations - U.S. trade data has shown significant volatility, with a sharp decline in imports in April due to reduced demand from importers and increasing caution in the market [15] - The overall role of trade in the U.S. economy is expected to weaken, reminiscent of conditions seen during the early COVID-19 pandemic and the global financial crisis [15]
伊朗怒了:动刀霍尔木兹海峡?
格隆汇APP· 2025-06-15 11:19
作者 | 独行侠 数据支持 | 勾股大数 据(www.gogudata.com) 随着以伊地缘冲突的爆发,国际油价也跟着发生了巨大波动。 6月13日,国际油价一度大涨14%,最终收涨近8%。这已经在前两日大涨近6%基础上进行的,彼时美国宣布从中东撤回人员,点燃了市场对 中东地缘政治冲突的担忧。 受油价影响,周五港 A油气板块大幅上涨,其中,山东墨龙飙升75%,中石化油服大涨25%。"三桶油"表现不俗,中国海油上涨2%,较4月 初累升24%。 目前,涨价题材颇受资本市场追捧。接下来,油气板块是否还有更好表现? 01 在 6月15日美伊正准备新一轮谈判之前,以色列以意想不到的方式对伊朗实施了军事打击,包括袭击伊朗重要核设施、精准斩首伊朗革命卫队 高管及核技术专家。 打击之后,全球金融市场一直在等伊朗方面的报复回应。 据多家媒体报道,伊朗在 6月13日发射了100多架无人机袭击以色列。之后,伊朗又发射了 数百枚弹道导弹 , 目标包括特拉维夫的军事中 心、空军基地等数十个目标 。 截止目前,伊朗方面实质性报复力度被普遍认为是软弱无力的。接下来,以色列是否继续加大力度袭击伊朗,以及伊朗方面是否更大规模报复 以色列,都不 ...
世界银行发布报告评估摩洛哥2025年经济发展趋势
Shang Wu Bu Wang Zhan· 2025-06-14 17:13
Global Economic Outlook - The World Bank forecasts a significant slowdown in global economic growth, predicting a growth rate of only 2.3% in 2025, the lowest since 2008 [1] - Nearly 70% of economies have downgraded their growth expectations due to escalating trade tensions, geopolitical uncertainties, and rising protectionism [1] Regional Performance - The Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region is expected to perform relatively well, with a projected growth of 2.7% in 2025, accelerating to around 4% in the following two years [1] - Morocco shows strong economic resilience, with GDP growth expected to be 3.6% in 2025 and 3.5% in 2026, surpassing the regional average [1] Economic Recovery Factors - Morocco's economic recovery is attributed to macroeconomic stability and a rebound in the industrial sector, particularly in construction and energy infrastructure investments [1] - The country benefits from declining inflation and a rebound in domestic demand, although this recovery is heavily reliant on stable food and energy prices, export growth, and relative geopolitical stability in the region [1] Challenges and Risks - Morocco faces high public debt pressure and limited fiscal space, with tax reform effects yet to materialize [2] - Global monetary policy tightening, capital flow volatility, and increasing regional security risks could impact Morocco's economy [2] - The World Bank warns that ongoing global protectionism may suppress investor confidence and reduce foreign investment inflows, posing new external risks for emerging economies like Morocco [2]
拉加德:美国关税措施造成“多输局面”
news flash· 2025-06-14 06:44
Core Viewpoint - The series of tariff measures and threats from the U.S. government are creating a "lose-lose situation" that is suppressing global investment and leading to downward revisions of growth forecasts for the global economy, the U.S. economy, and the European economy [1] Group 1 - The uncertainty caused by U.S. tariffs is making it difficult for investors and business operators to navigate the economic landscape [1] - The sooner uncertainty is resolved and agreements on tariffs and non-tariff barriers are reached, the greater the benefits for all parties involved [1] - Central banks are also facing challenges in predicting economic trends and price levels due to this significant uncertainty [1]
综述|中东局势骤然升级致国际市场大幅震荡
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-06-14 06:42
新华社纽约6月13日电 综述|中东局势骤然升级致国际市场大幅震荡 新华社记者刘亚南 徐静 分析人士认为,市场对中东局势升级可能冲击全球能源供应链的恐慌情绪加剧,投资者担忧中东地缘政 治风险升高可能拖累包括美国在内的全球经济增长。 安永-博智隆公司首席经济学家格雷戈里·达科预计,若以色列与伊朗的冲突出现"重大升级",全球经济 将遭受显著冲击,一年后全球实际国内生产总值(GDP)增速将比基本预测情形下减少1.8%,美国实 际GDP增速将比基本预测情形下减少1.9%。 以色列13日多次袭击伊朗境内核设施和军事目标,中东局势升级导致国际市场大幅震荡。股市方面,纽 约股市三大股指当天显著下挫,标准普尔500种股票指数跌破6000点;油价方面,国际油价在隔夜市场 一度大幅冲高,当天收盘时国际油价涨幅均超7%;金价方面,黄金作为避险资产受到市场追捧,现货 黄金价格触及近两个月高位。 由于市场避险需求显著升高,投资者选择在高位抛售。截至13日收盘,道琼斯工业平均指数较前一交易 日下跌769.83点,收于42197.79点,跌幅为1.79%;标普500种股票指数下跌68.29点,收于5976.97点, 跌幅为1.13%;纳斯达 ...
欧洲央行行长拉加德:美国关税措施造成“多输局面”
news flash· 2025-06-13 15:38
Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the uncertainty caused by the U.S. government's series of tariff measures is suppressing global investment, leading to downward revisions of growth forecasts for the global economy, the U.S. economy, and the European economy [1] - Christine Lagarde emphasized that the current situation is a lose-lose scenario for all parties involved [1] - The sooner uncertainties are resolved and agreements on tariff and non-tariff barriers are reached, the greater the benefits for everyone [1]
关税冲击波显现!欧元区4月工业与贸易“双杀” 贸易顺差“蒸发”274亿欧元
智通财经网· 2025-06-13 11:12
Group 1 - The Eurozone's industrial and trade sectors faced significant shocks in April, likely influenced by U.S. tariff policies, challenging previous views of Eurozone resilience during economic turmoil [1] - Eurozone industrial output fell by 2.4% month-on-month in April, exceeding the 1.7% decline expected by economists, with all industrial sectors experiencing contraction [1] - The trade surplus for the Eurozone dropped sharply from €37.3 billion in March to €9.9 billion in April, indicating severe pressure on trade [1] Group 2 - Eurozone exports to non-EU countries decreased by 8.2%, while the overall EU export decline reached 9.7%, reflecting broader trade challenges [1] - Exports to the U.S. plummeted from €71.1 billion in March to €47.6 billion in April, primarily driven by a sharp reduction in chemical exports, potentially linked to Ireland's pharmaceutical sector [1] - April's industrial output year-on-year growth was only 0.8%, with only non-durable consumer goods showing annual growth, indicating a significant slowdown [2]