Core Viewpoint - The European Central Bank's Vice President, Luis de Guindos, acknowledges the uncertainty and chaos in the Eurozone economy but notes that the market remains optimistic. However, high market valuations, protectionist trends, and public finance conditions pose potential risks. Concerns regarding the United States are reflected in the movement of the dollar [1]. Group 1 - The Eurozone economy is facing significant uncertainty and chaos [1] - Market optimism persists despite high valuations [1] - Protectionist trends and public finance conditions are identified as potential risks [1] Group 2 - Market concerns regarding the United States are impacting the dollar's performance [1]

研究局限性和风险提示 | | 20250630申万期货有色金属基差日报 | | | --- | --- | --- | | | 铜： 可能短期区间波动 | | | | 锌： 可能短期宽幅波动 | | | 摘要 | 铝： 可能短期内震荡 | | | | 镍： 可能短期内震荡 | | | 品种 | 观点 | 策略方向 | | | 铜：周末夜盘铜价收平。目前精矿加工费总体低位以及低铜价，考验冶炼产 | | | 铜 | 量。根据国家统计局数据来看，国内下游需求总体稳定向好，电力行业延续 正增长；汽车产销正增长；家电产量增速趋缓；地产持续疲弱。多空因素交 | 可能短期区 | | | 织，铜价可能区间波动。关注美国关税进展，以及美元、铜冶炼和家电产量 | 间波动 | | | 等因素变化。 | | | | 锌：周末夜盘锌价收涨。近期精矿加工费持续回升。由国家统计局数据来 看，国内汽车产销正增长，基建稳定增长，家电产量增速趋缓，地产持续疲 | 可能短期宽 | | 锌 | 弱。市场预期今年精矿供应明显改善，冶炼供应可能恢复。短期锌价可能宽 | 幅波动 | | | 幅波动，关注美国关税进展，以及美元、锌冶炼和家电产量等因素变化。 ...

Group 1 - The US dollar index has fallen over 10% this year, leading to significant increases in precious metal prices and a shift in global central bank reserves towards gold [1][2] - There is a divergence in market opinions regarding the future of the dollar, with some institutions predicting further depreciation due to monetary policy misalignment and external circulation issues, while others believe the fastest decline may be over and caution against potential rebounds [1][2] - Precious metals such as gold and silver have seen price increases exceeding 20% this year, with platinum prices rising over 50%, indicating a reallocation of global funds [2][3] Group 2 - The decline of the dollar is attributed to three main factors: relative economic advantages, monetary policy misalignment, and increasing credit risk associated with the dollar [2] - A survey by the Official Monetary and Financial Institutions Forum (OMFIF) indicates that the dollar's popularity among central banks has dropped, with 70% of respondents citing US political conditions as a barrier to dollar investment, leading to a record increase in gold holdings [3] - UBS suggests that ongoing uncertainty in US policies may weaken the appeal of the "American exceptionalism," recommending investors diversify into other currencies to mitigate excessive dollar exposure [3]

金老虎：川普宣布停衅，伊以无视告诫，黄金中线看3247； 看不懂一段行情，在怎么去琢磨，也是疲倦，看懂一段行情，顺势而为，在怎么做也是愉悦，低谷望天 总是迷茫，高山看低谷总是恐惧，细雨纷纷，阴雨沉沉，好似行情看不到阳光，一直弱势下跌，在市场 中你所谓的以为只是你以为，真正的贪婪全凭川普一句话；时间长了，我认为川普上台，就一直走这么 一个流程，制造矛盾-切入利润-平仓出局-调和矛盾-平息矛盾； 黄金行情分析 似懂非懂的行情经历一轮跳水然后拉个上升趋势形态，你就觉得会反弹了，那有那么容易，好的事情总 是需要经历一些变化和磨练才能如你所愿，昨天完美的N形态走势，今天早间延续昨天的弱势，也是破 位了昨天的低点3309的位置，这样的形态，今天大概率还是还是需要偏向看跌，那么昨天黄金从3329反 弹到3350，然后从3350下跌到3309，在从3309修复反弹到3336的主要原因是哪些，我简单说明下； 第一点：特朗普考虑最早在 9 月份宣布鲍威尔的继任者人选，这一消息对金价形成了助力。市场对此反 应较为敏感，认为这可能会影响美联储未来政策走向，进而影响美元，给黄金带来利好，推动黄金价格 从 3329 反弹到 3350。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent geopolitical tensions between Iran and Israel have led to fluctuating oil prices, while gold prices have remained relatively stable, raising questions about the current state of risk aversion in the market [1][3]. Market Reactions - Gold prices did not react significantly to the Middle East conflict due to several factors: 1) Market expectations have been dulled, with prior conflicts already priced in [3] 2) A stabilizing dollar index has attracted funds back to the U.S., putting pressure on dollar-denominated gold [3] 3) Slowing inflows into gold ETFs and high positions held by CTA funds indicate a lack of new buying momentum [3] 4) The Federal Reserve's hawkish stance has delayed interest rate cuts, negatively impacting gold prices [3]. Institutional Predictions - Major financial institutions have differing views on gold price forecasts: - Bank of America predicts gold could reach $4000 per ounce within the next 12 months, driven by geopolitical risks and fiscal deficits [4][5]. - Goldman Sachs has a base case of $3300, with a potential extreme of $4200 by the end of 2025, citing central bank purchases and ETF inflows [5]. - Morgan Stanley projects a price of $6000 by early 2029, contingent on a collapse of dollar credit [5]. - Citigroup is the most pessimistic, suggesting prices could fall below $3000 in the next year due to economic recovery [5]. Supporting Factors for Gold Prices - Institutions predicting an increase in gold prices cite several supporting factors: 1) High fiscal deficits in the U.S. are expected to weaken dollar credibility, enhancing gold's appeal as a hedge [5]. 2) Ongoing uncertainty in U.S. policies may exacerbate risks to dollar credibility and economic downturns [5]. 3) Continued central bank purchases of gold, with China increasing its reserves for seven consecutive months [5]. 4) Persistent geopolitical risks are likely to sustain demand for gold as a safe haven [5]. Diverging Opinions - There is a growing divergence in opinions regarding gold prices, with some institutions like Citigroup arguing that U.S. economic recovery will diminish gold's attractiveness, while others emphasize recession risks as supportive for gold [6][7]. Investment Strategy - Gold remains a valuable asset for hedging against equity market risks, with recommendations suggesting a long-term holding strategy not exceeding 15% of total portfolio allocation [8].

新华财经北京6月26日电（王姝睿） 美元日内继续下跌，因一系列基本面因素削弱该货币。美联储提 前"换帅"传闻、避险需求下降、各国贸易谈判博弈等因素综合作用，美元指数跌至三年低点。 美联储信誉问题引发了市场的抛售。《华尔街日报》的报道加剧了对美联储信誉的担忧。报道称特朗普 考虑最早于9月宣布美联储主席鲍威尔的继任者。特朗普表示，他正在考虑三到四位下任美联储主席候 选人。据悉，主要候选人包括美联储前理事沃什、美国国家经济委员会主任哈塞特、现任美联储理事沃 勒和财政部长贝森特。一些分析人士认为，这是特朗普试图在鲍威尔2026年5月离任之前就通过"影 子"主席来影响货币政策。 美元兑瑞郎日内跌破0.80关口，为2011年9月以来首次。英镑兑美元突破前高，刷新2021年10月以来最 高水平，现报1.3716。欧元兑美元升至1.173的三年高位。荷兰合作银行目前预计，欧元兑美元将在12个 月内升至1.20，此前预计欧元将在18个月内达到这一水平。 三菱日联分析师认为，如果特朗普提前选择接替美联储主席鲍威尔的人，美元将面临进一步下跌，提前 决定继任者可能会破坏鲍威尔领导下的美联储政策制定，进一步可能导致投资者对美元失去信心 ...

北京时间周四20:30，美国第一季度实际国内生产总值(GDP)终值将出炉，预计年化季率下降0.2%。分 析师指出，假如美国GDP数据不及预期，美元可能进一步走软，从而推动主要非美货币和黄金走强。 北京时间周四20:30，美国5月耐用品订单初值将公布，预计月率上升8.5%。北京时间周四20:30，美国6 月21日当周季调后初请失业金人数将出炉，预计为24.5万。北京时间周四22:00，美国5月NAR季调后成 屋签约销售指数将出炉，预计月率增长0.1%。当前黄金市场正处于多重因素的交织之中。伊朗与以色 列停火协议削弱了避险需求，但美伊谈判的不确定性和潜在冲突风险为金价提供了底线支撑。美联储对 关税引发的通胀风险保持谨慎，推迟降息可能导致美元走强，压制金价，但经济放缓信号（如房地产市 场低迷）又强化了降息预期和黄金的避险角色。本交易日，投资者将聚焦诸多美国重量级数据，预计将 引发市场大行情。 换资前言： 我的文章不为取悦别人，只为了给能够感同身受的朋友一种归属感，也给出我作为一个专业人士所力所 能及的一些帮助。我们知道人生的四大幸事是：久旱逢甘霖，他乡遇故知，洞房花烛夜，金榜题名时。 而投资炒黄金的四大幸事金晟富认 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights the shifting focus of traders from geopolitical risks to the implications of Federal Reserve policies and fiscal deficits, leading to a decline in the US dollar index and a weakening against the euro and pound [1][3]. - The probability of a rate cut in September has increased, diminishing the dollar's interest rate advantage, while expanding fiscal deficits raise concerns about government bond supply [1][3]. - The eurozone is experiencing discussions around budget expansion and industrial subsidies, which may narrow the growth gap in the euro area, while the UK benefits from a stable labor market and high interest rate expectations [1][3]. Group 2 - The Japanese yen is weakening due to concerns from the Bank of Japan regarding the impact of tariffs on exports and corporate confidence, leading to a preference for a wait-and-see approach rather than immediate rate hikes [3]. - The divergence in monetary policy between the US and Japan has created a unique market dynamic, with traders engaging in "sell USD, buy EUR" and "buy USD, sell JPY" strategies simultaneously [3]. - The upcoming PCE price index and ISM manufacturing index will serve as critical tests for the dollar's strength, with potential implications for positioning in the currency market [3]. Group 3 - The euro's upward movement faces challenges, including the need for parliamentary approval for budget expansion, which could reverse optimistic expectations if disputes arise over deficit limits and spending structures [4]. - The British pound is also under pressure from persistent inflation and growth concerns following the Bank of England's tightening cycle [4]. - Market participants are advised to monitor the dynamics of interest rate differentials and fiscal expectations, as unexpected developments in European budgets or Japanese monetary policy could quickly alter current trading strategies [4].

Core Viewpoint - The report by Bank of America analyst Adarsh Sinha indicates that interest rate differentials are no longer the primary driver of the US dollar's movement since the announcement of comprehensive tariffs by Trump in April [1] Group 1: Factors Affecting the Dollar - The decoupling of the dollar from interest rate differentials reflects structural risk premiums in the US [1] - Contributing factors include rising inflation due to tariffs, weakened economic growth outlook, peak exceptionalism of the US economy, and increasing fiscal deficit risks [1] Group 2: Future Outlook - Interest rate differentials may regain importance in driving the dollar, especially if the Federal Reserve implements more rate cuts sooner than expected [1]

Recent Gold Price Trends - Geopolitical conflicts have driven gold price volatility, with a spike to $3427 per ounce following Israeli airstrikes on Iranian nuclear facilities on June 13, marking a weekly increase of over 3.5% [1] - A ceasefire announcement by Trump on June 24 led to a 2% drop in gold price to $3295, the lowest in two weeks, with domestic gold jewelry prices decreasing by 8-15 yuan per gram [1] Technical Analysis - The key resistance level is at $3400, which is crucial for sustaining any upward momentum; support is identified at $3320, with potential declines to the $3250-$3290 range if breached [2] - A "head and shoulders" pattern is observed on the daily chart, with a critical neckline at $3380; failure to hold this level may trigger further declines [3] Core Factors Influencing Gold Prices - The Middle East situation remains a short-term driver; a breakdown of the ceasefire could lead to a rapid rebound in gold prices, especially if risks in the Strait of Hormuz resurface, potentially increasing both oil and gold prices [4] - Central banks are expected to continue gold purchases, with reserves projected to account for 20% of global holdings by 2024, as emerging markets shift 60% of their gold purchases to replace U.S. Treasuries, providing structural support for long-term gold prices [4] Monetary Policy and Dollar Dynamics - Divergence in expectations regarding Federal Reserve interest rate cuts exists; Powell emphasized the need for confirmed inflation decline before any cuts, which may pressure gold prices; however, Citi predicts that a rate cut in September could alleviate some pressure on gold [5] - A strong dollar typically suppresses gold prices, with the recent dollar index rebounding to 98.9, putting additional pressure on gold [6] Market Sentiment and Fund Flows - Institutional views are mixed, with Goldman Sachs and Bank of America bullish on gold reaching $4000 by 2026, while Citi is bearish, projecting a drop to $2300, reflecting market uncertainty [7] - SPDR Gold ETF holdings have increased, indicating some funds are positioning themselves to buy on dips [8] Investment Strategies and Market Recommendations - Short-term strategy suggests a bearish outlook, with recommendations to short in the $3340-$3350 range, targeting $3320, and looking for a break below to $3290 [9] - Caution is advised for bottom-fishing below $3300, with a need to monitor Middle East developments and Federal Reserve statements for potential stabilization before considering long positions [9] Long-term Allocation Value - Gold is viewed as a strategic asset for inflation hedging and restructuring of the monetary credit system, with suggested allocation between 5%-15% [10] - Preferred investment vehicles include gold ETFs for their low entry barriers and strong liquidity, and physical gold for long-term holding, though storage costs and price spreads should be considered [11] Summary - The current gold market is characterized by "event-driven fluctuations," influenced by ceasefire agreements and hawkish Federal Reserve signals, while central bank purchases and long-term safe-haven demand provide ongoing support; investors are advised to operate flexibly based on technical levels (3320/3380) and news developments, with long-term holders encouraged to build positions gradually [13]