北京时间7月31日凌晨2点，美联储公布利率决议。 美联储主席鲍威尔在会后新闻发布会上表示，今年上半年经济增长有所放缓，但美联储完全有能力应对 潜在的发展。"与去年的2.5%相比，2025年上半年的增长放缓至1.2%。增长放缓主要反映了消费支出的 放缓。"美联储主席表示，"我们认为，目前的货币政策立场使我们能够及时应对潜在的经济发展。" 谈及关税的影响，美联储主席表示，"更高的关税已经开始体现在一些商品的价格上，但对经济活动和 通货膨胀的总体影响还有待观察。" 联邦公开市场委员会（FOMC）以9-2的方式决定维持利率区间在4.25%-4.50%不变。美联储主席鲍威尔 表示，可以在等待关税政策是否推高通胀的同时保持利率稳定。他透露，尚未就9月可能的政策调整"作 出任何决定"。受此影响，美股尾盘跳水，美元指数逼近100大关，国际金价走弱。 美联储重申等待关税影响明朗化 决议声明称，尽管净出口的波动影响了数据，但最近的指标表明，经济活动继续以稳健的速度扩张。失 业率仍然很低，劳动力市场状况稳健，通货膨胀率有所上升。 FOMC重申，寻求在长期内实现最大就业率和2%的通货膨胀率。经济前景的不确定性有所增加，委员 会关注其 ...

毕马威（KPMG）首席经济学家Swonk：将开始看到更多与关税相关的美国通胀。 美联储可能要到2025年年底才会降息。 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the current U.S. Federal Reserve's communication strategy is intentionally ambiguous, aiming to extend the negotiation cycle and create monetary space, influenced by political factors as the election approaches and inflation pressures persist [1][2] - The persistent inflation in the U.S. is attributed to structural cost increases resulting from a deep restructuring of the global supply chain, rather than traditional overheating demand or supply-demand mismatches [1] - The past 40 years of moderate inflation in the U.S. were largely supported by a global supply chain centered around China, which has been disrupted since 2021 due to geopolitical tensions and the breakdown of globalization [1] Group 2 - The sensitivity and vulnerability of global capital market valuations have increased, with a warning that lack of strategic coordination between the U.S. and China could lead to rising inflation expectations, higher interest rates, and a compression of valuations [2] - The adjustment of global asset prices is closely tied to the trajectory of geopolitical dynamics, emphasizing that the only path to resolving U.S. inflation issues is through easing tensions and rebuilding cooperative logic [2]

作者丨孙长忠（清华大学全球私募股权研究院研究员） 编辑丨陆跃玲 美联储将于7月29日至30日召开货币政策例会。目前市场认为这次会议降息概率接近于0，9月 降息概率也不到60%，主要原因是美国6月CPI数据表明，美国关税的通胀效应有所显现，美 联储仍需观察后续影响，且目前美国就业和经济增长情况总体良好，不必急于降息。然而最 近一系列相关进展表明，美国经济金融状况和内外环境正在发生新的变化，美联储决策的重 点和平衡点也将相应发生变化，本月会议可能未必按市场预期行事。 美联储两位理事沃勒和鲍曼6月表示支持7月降息，主席鲍威尔随后在国会听证会上也没有排 除这一可能性，表示对关税向零售价格的传导小于预期持"完全开放"的态度并将影响美联储 的政策，同时也强调预计美国关税将在6到8月间对价格产生显著影响，表示要等待形势更加 清晰明朗再作决定。也有FOMC其他委员表示关税将会使美国通胀上升，应继续维持现行利率 不变，但最新的形势变化也可能使美联储官员调整想法。 美国关税政策不确定性或将减弱。从美国最近与日本和欧盟达成的协议来看，15%关税具有标 志性意义，因为日本和欧盟对美贸易分量更大（欧盟最大），可视为美国的关税要求底线。 ...

Group 1: Federal Reserve Policy Outlook - The Federal Reserve's upcoming meeting on July 29-30 is expected to maintain current interest rates, with a near-zero probability of a rate cut in July and less than 60% for September, primarily due to the recent CPI data indicating the inflation effects of tariffs [1] - Recent comments from Fed officials suggest a potential shift in policy considerations, with some members supporting a rate cut while others advocate for maintaining current rates due to rising inflation concerns from tariffs [1][2] - The uncertainty surrounding U.S. tariff policies is diminishing, as recent agreements with Japan and the EU suggest a potential stabilization of tariff levels, which could reduce the Fed's concerns regarding inflation and influence their decision-making [2] Group 2: Inflation Trends - Current inflation levels in the U.S. are not showing significant increases, with the June CPI data indicating a projected PCE inflation growth of 2.5% year-on-year, and core PCE at 2.7% [3] - Research indicates that excluding tariff impacts, U.S. inflation has been close to the Fed's 2% target, suggesting that the inflationary pressure from tariffs may not be as significant as previously thought [3] - If consumers absorb one-third of the new tariffs, a permanent 10% increase in tariffs could raise PCE inflation by 0.3 percentage points this year, but this effect is expected to dissipate by next year [3] Group 3: Employment and Economic Growth - Recent employment data shows signs of weakness, with only 147,000 new jobs added in June, primarily from government sectors, while private sector job growth appears stagnant [4] - The private sector's employment situation is critical for understanding economic momentum, and recent adjustments suggest that previous job growth figures may have been overestimated [4] - Economic indicators such as retail sales and PMI show stability, but sectors sensitive to interest rates, like manufacturing and real estate, are experiencing contraction, indicating a need for potential rate cuts to stimulate consumer spending [4] Group 4: Market Sentiment and Fed Independence - There is growing concern regarding the independence of the Federal Reserve, especially with external pressures from the Trump administration advocating for rate cuts [5] - A rate cut in July could be perceived as yielding to political pressure, while a refusal to cut rates when appropriate could undermine the Fed's independence [5] - The possibility of postponing a rate cut until September is being considered by some FOMC members, reflecting a cautious approach to monetary policy [5]

"现在就假设关税不会产生通胀压力还为时过早，"卡尔瓦西纳等RBC策略师们在周日发布的一份研究报告中写道，该报告发布 时正值欧盟与美国宣布正式达成贸易协议之后。"如果在关税重压之下，美国企业对下半年以及2026年的利润展望并不像投资 者们一直预期的那样乐观，这也会给屡创新高的美国股市走势带来巨大的回调风险。" 随着散户与机构投资者们押注美国企业盈利增长将继续强劲，美国股市已反弹至历史最高位且多个交易日创下历史新高。据 Bloomberg Intelligence汇编的数据，Q2美股财报季截至目前，约82%的标普500指数成份公司的第二季度整体盈利超出华尔街普 遍预期，为近四年来最高的超预期比例。 智通财经APP获悉，尽管本季美国财报季开局强劲，但来自加拿大皇家银行资本市场(RBC Capital Markets)的策略师团队认 为，现在就排除特朗普关税政策对美国通胀和企业盈利造成的影响为时尚早。由华尔街顶级策略师洛里·卡尔瓦西纳(Lori Calvasina)领衔的RBC策略团队表示，初步趋势显示，美国企业迄今对特朗普发起的新一轮贸易战表现出韧性，然而，RBC表 示，该机构调查显示多位美国大型企业的高管警告称， ...

Group 1 - Gold prices remained volatile last week, with London spot gold closing at $3,350 per ounce (down 0.2% week-on-week) and domestic AU9999 gold at 774 yuan per gram (up 0.4% week-on-week) [1] - The US June inflation showed a mild increase, with the core CPI rising to 0.23% month-on-month, slightly below the expected 0.3%. This increase was driven by short-term factors such as rising oil prices due to the Iraq conflict and tariff-driven increases in clothing prices [1] - Current uncertainties regarding tariffs remain high, with Trump indicating potential new tariffs on imported pharmaceuticals and semiconductors before August 1. The market's reaction to these tariff announcements has been muted, viewing them as negotiation leverage [1] Group 2 - Looking ahead, the prospects for tariffs may fluctuate under the US trade protectionism ideology, while central bank gold purchases continue amid US debt and dollar credit crises, indicating that gold is on a new cycle [2] - Key signals to watch for the upcoming week regarding gold ETFs include trade negotiations and tariff situations, as well as the European Central Bank's interest rate decision [3]

Group 1 - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) in the U.S. rose by 2.7% year-on-year in June, marking the largest increase since February, with core inflation (excluding food and energy) increasing by 2.9%, both exceeding the Federal Reserve's 2% target [1] - Economists attribute the rising inflation to frequent tariff increases by the U.S. government, with expectations that inflation will worsen in the second half of the year as the "tariff effect" becomes more pronounced [1] - The Federal Reserve's national economic conditions report indicates that inflationary pressures are spreading across all regions, with many businesses passing on costs to consumers through price hikes or additional fees [1] Group 2 - Major retailers in the U.S., such as Walmart, Best Buy, and Costco, have raised prices due to tariff-related cost pressures, with some Walmart products seeing price increases of up to 51% [2] - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell noted that both businesses and consumers will ultimately bear the burden of tariffs, with expectations that inflation could rise by approximately 1 percentage point in the coming months [2] - Concerns are growing that the cumulative effects of tariffs will further increase inflation, weaken consumer purchasing power, and hinder economic recovery, especially following new tariffs imposed on countries like Canada [2]

固定收益 | 固定收益专题 关税对美国通胀和财政影响多大？ 证券研究报告 特朗普关税政策跟踪 目前宣布的关税政策有哪些？ 截至目前，特朗普宣布或威胁的关税政策，可以分成 4 部分： 1）基于芬太尼和边境问题的关税，主要针对中、加、墨；但符合 USMCA 的商品已经豁免。2）已达成贸易协议的国家：英国、越南、印尼。贸易协 议有 2 个特征：对供应链安全的重视、要求购买美国商品。协议尚未发布 官方文本，细节仍有悬念。3）"对等关税 2.0"，延长谈判期限至 8 月 1 日。 4）行业关税，包括钢铁和铝及其制品（包括钢制家电）、汽车及其关键零 部件、铜关税。 实际有效关税税率上升了多少？ 今年以来，截至 5 月，美国平均有效关税税率从 2.3%上升至 8.8%，共上升 6.5 个百分点。分国家看，对中国征收的平均关税税率上行最多、而对加 拿大、墨西哥的有效关税上升幅度较小。分行业看，钢铁和铝及其制品的 有效关税税率上行幅度最大，其次是家具、寝具、玩具、运动用品、服装 鞋靴被征收的平均关税税率提升较大。 关税如何影响美国通胀？ 1）美国在关税生效之前、到底以较低的价格"囤货"了多少？ 从美国的进口数据看：贵金属（尤其 ...

Macro Strategy - The report highlights that since the implementation of tariffs in February, US core inflation has consistently underperformed expectations for five consecutive months. This is attributed to factors such as pre-positioning of imports and inventory cycles by US traders, increased imports from Mexico contributing to deflation, and the relatively low weight of tariff-sensitive core goods in the CPI. Additionally, tariffs have negatively impacted the service sector and overall US economic demand [1][10]. Fixed Income - The issuance of the first batch of Sci-Tech Bond ETFs is expected to enhance the demand for Sci-Tech bonds, as these ETFs offer low fees, high transparency, and efficient trading mechanisms. This could lead to a significant increase in the scale of these ETFs and consequently boost the demand for underlying bonds. If the growth rate is rapid, the underlying bonds may experience a favorable market trend, outperforming individual bonds of similar credit quality [2][11][14]. - The report indicates that the introduction of Sci-Tech Bond ETFs will improve market liquidity for these bonds, allowing investors to participate more easily and enhancing market activity. This is expected to compress liquidity premiums and improve the performance of Sci-Tech bond varieties [2][11][14]. Industry - The domestic automotive lighting industry is currently characterized by a "two super, many strong" competitive landscape, with market share expected to continue concentrating towards leading firms. The industry has high entry barriers due to customer resources, technology development, cost control, and quality certification [3][15]. - The report notes a significant decline in Japanese lighting manufacturers over the past decade, while European manufacturers have maintained stability. Domestic leaders like Xingyu have shown continuous growth, with revenue surpassing competitors [3][15][16]. - Investment recommendations favor Xingyu as a leading domestic automotive lighting company, driven by the ongoing intelligent upgrades in automotive lighting, which are expected to increase average selling prices (ASP) and industry growth potential. The company has established deep partnerships with major clients in the new energy vehicle sector, positioning it well for future growth [3][15][16]. - Profit forecasts for Xingyu indicate expected net profits of 1.761 billion, 2.189 billion, and 2.683 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings (PE) ratios of 20, 16, and 13 [3][15][16]. Public Utilities - The report discusses the renewable energy operator industry, highlighting that three major constraints (electricity prices, consumption, and subsidies) are expected to ease, leading to a reversal for green electricity operators. The introduction of a unified pricing mechanism for renewable energy is anticipated to stabilize electricity prices and improve project profitability [5][17][18]. - Investment recommendations focus on high-quality green electricity operators with pure green assets, suggesting companies like Longyuan Power and China General Nuclear Power as potential beneficiaries of the expected market improvements [5][17][18].