对于原油期货价格持续走弱的原因，宝城期货能化高级研究员陈栋表示， 主要是OPEC+产油国9月继续 增产，叠加"关税战"升级，在供应预期回升及宏观情绪转弱的背景下，国内外原油期货市场空头力量占 据主导地位。 最新数据显示，2025年上半年，我国汽油表观消费量为7286万吨，同比下降6.24%。恒泰期货总经理助 理顾劲涛认为， 受多重因素影响，下半年国内汽油消费大概率会继续下降，全年预计同比下降4%以 上。 隆众资讯成品油分析师刘炳娟认为，本轮调价周期内国际原油价格先涨后跌， 导致测算的成品油调价 幅度在50元/吨以内，本轮调价搁浅已成定局。 在本轮计价周期内，国际原油价格短暂冲高后持续回调。 美国商品期货交易委员会发布的数据显示，截至8月5日当周，WTI原油投机性净多头持仓减少10242 手，至23127手。 今年以来，国内成品油价已经历十五轮调整，呈现"六涨六跌三搁浅"格局，涨跌互抵后，国内汽、柴油 价格每吨较去年底分别下调225元、215元。若本轮调整搁浅，则为连续第二轮搁浅，2025年调价格局将 变为"六涨六跌四搁浅"。 今日（8月12日）24时，国内成品油新一轮调价窗口将开启。机构普遍预测，国内成品油价 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 运筹帷幄 决胜千里 原油 有望企稳 宝城期货 陈栋 在供应回升以及宏观情绪转弱的背景下，近期内外盘原油期货价格震荡走弱。其中，国内原油期货 2509 合约自 535 元/桶一线跌至 490 元/桶附近，累计下跌超 8%。 鉴于油价已经消化利空影响，预计后期油价或震荡企稳。 美联储降息预期升温 近期，宏观层面呈多空分歧局面。一方面，美国总统特朗普再度升级"关税战"，其要求对进口半导体 加征 100%关税。另一方面，美联储"鸽派"力量持续增强，今年 9 月美联储降息 25 个基点的概率上升至 91.5%。 基本面预期转弱 8 月初，OPEC+决定在 9 月增产 54.7 万桶/日。自 2025 年 4 月起，OPEC+的产量策略显著转向，从此 前的通过减产力挺油价转向增产以争夺市场份额。今年 4—8 月，OPEC+累计增产 191.9 万桶/日。在供应 压力持续增强的背景下，需求也面临季节性转弱的风险。 随着北半球夏季用油需求触及峰值，未来需求继续上升的空间有限。截至 8 月 1 日当周，美国炼厂开 工率为 96.9%，较前一周上升 1.5 个百分点，同比上升 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information provided about the report industry investment rating. Group 2: Core View of the Report - The report indicates that the domestic crude oil futures contract 2510 is expected to run strongly in the short - term, with short - term and medium - term outlooks being "volatile", and the intraday view being "volatile and slightly stronger". It is predicted to maintain a volatile and stable trend on Tuesday [1][5]. Group 3: Summary According to the Directory 1. Time - cycle and View Summary - For the crude oil 2510 contract, the short - term view is "volatile", the medium - term view is "volatile", and the intraday view is "volatile and slightly stronger", with a reference view of "running strongly" [1]. 2. Core Logic Summary - There are multi - empty divergences at the macro level. Trump has escalated the tariff war by demanding a 100% tariff on imported semiconductors, while also arranging "dovish" officials in the Fed. The probability of a 25 - basis - point interest rate cut by the Fed in September is as high as 91.5%. OPEC+ oil - producing countries are increasing crude oil production, and supply pressure is rising. The demand side is in the peak season, with a good supply - demand structure, but there is a risk of a decline in demand due to seasonal factors. The domestic crude oil futures 2510 contract slightly rose 0.33% to 491.7 yuan/barrel in the overnight session on Monday [5].

随着北半球夏季用油需求触及峰值，未来需求继续上升的空间有限。截至8月1日当周，美国炼厂开工率 为96.9%，较前一周上升1.5个百分点，同比上升6.4个百分点。虽然现阶段美国炼厂开工率处于高位， 但难以长时间维持。根据季节性规律，预计8月下旬以后美国炼厂开工率见顶回落，届时原油库存去化 节奏将放缓。在供应压力持续增强、需求驱动减弱的背景下，油价走势或受到拖累。 国际原油期货市场净多头寸下降 8月以来，国际油价震荡回落，市场做多力量逐步减弱。截至8月5日当周，WTI原油期货非商业净多持 仓量为141829手，较前一周减少14194手，较7月均值减少41341手，降幅为22.57%；布伦特原油期货基 金净多持仓量为230414张，较前一周减少19559张，较7月均值增长4.7%。总体来看，随着宏观和产业 因素双双走弱，原油期货市场净多头寸下降。 综合来看，OPEC+继续增加原油产量，供应压力稳步回升，而需求端短期仍处于旺季阶段，供需结构 尚可，但需要警惕需求见顶回落的风险。在多空存在分歧的背景下，预计后市内外盘原油期货价格震荡 企稳。（作者单位：宝城期货） 在供应回升以及宏观情绪转弱的背景下，近期内外盘原油期货价 ...

Group 1 - The core issue revolves around the potential extension of the 90-day suspension of the 24% tariffs agreed upon during the high-level trade talks between China and the U.S. in May, with the deadline approaching on August 12 [1][2] - U.S. President Trump has not made a clear statement regarding the extension of the tariff suspension, raising concerns about a possible escalation in tensions between the two economies [1][2] - China's Foreign Ministry expressed hope for positive outcomes based on the consensus reached by the leaders of both countries, emphasizing the importance of mutual respect and reciprocity in negotiations [1] Group 2 - Trump's recent social media post suggested that China is concerned about soybean shortages and urged China to significantly increase its orders of U.S. soybeans to reduce the trade deficit [1] - Despite Trump's claims, analysts indicate that there is little evidence to suggest that China is worried about soybean shortages, and China could source from South America if trade relations do not improve [2] - The U.S. government data shows that as of the end of July, China had not placed orders for the new season's soybeans, reflecting ongoing tensions [1][2] Group 3 - The U.S. administration is considering imposing new tariffs on Chinese imports in response to China's purchase of Russian oil, complicating the trade relationship further [2] - China's embassy in the U.S. defended its trade with Russia as compliant with international law, opposing U.S. unilateral sanctions and emphasizing that there are no winners in a tariff war [2] - Since May, the U.S. and China have held three rounds of trade talks in various locations, with the latest consensus being to continue the suspension of the 24% tariffs and corresponding countermeasures for another 90 days [2]

Core Viewpoint - The article argues that the ultimate winner of the tariff war is China, despite the U.S. government's claims of success in generating revenue through tariffs [3][15]. Group 1: Economic Impact on the U.S. - The high tariffs imposed by the Trump administration have led to skyrocketing prices for raw materials like steel and semiconductors, forcing U.S. factories to cut production and resulting in a decline in product quality [7]. - U.S. allies are shifting their trade partnerships towards China, with Brazil signing a multi-billion dollar soybean deal with China and India accelerating trade with Russia [7]. - Retail giants like Walmart and Best Buy are facing increased costs, contributing to a rise in inflation to 2.9%, which is straining consumers' finances [7]. Group 2: China's Economic Resilience - China's total import and export volume reached 25.7 trillion yuan in the first seven months of 2025, marking a 3.5% increase, with exports to Belt and Road Initiative countries soaring by 8.7% [11]. - Many U.S. companies are relocating their production lines to China to avoid tariffs, benefiting from China's robust textile industry infrastructure [11]. - Chinese e-commerce platforms like Taobao and Dunhuang.com are gaining international traction as affected businesses and consumers turn to them [11]. Group 3: Global Reactions and Trends - India and Brazil have strongly opposed Trump's tariff policies, with India's government prioritizing farmers' interests and Brazil filing a complaint with the WTO [13]. - The U.S. manufacturing PMI has dropped to 48%, while China's remains above 50%, indicating a stark contrast in economic health [15]. - The article concludes that unilateralism and protectionism will backfire in the changing global economic landscape, with China emerging as the biggest winner due to its flexible economic strategies and strong industrial chain [15].

据新华网消息，近期美国再度调整对中国部分商品关税政策，中美关税博弈持续引发全球关注。自特朗普再次执政以来，对中国发起的关税战便成为国际经 济与政治领域焦点。如今局势突变，特朗普正面临极为棘手的局面。 美国有线电视新闻网评论称，在短短六个月内，特朗普 "重塑了全球贸易格局，颠覆了长达一个世纪的惯例"。一些企业主公开表示，若关税战持续，企业 将被迫裁员甚至倒闭，这将对美国就业市场造成沉重打击，普通民众也将深受其害。美国部分政客也对特朗普的关税政策提出批评，认为其可能导致美国经 济衰退，仅依靠加征关税这一简单粗暴的手段，无法实现美国的繁荣发展，反而可能使美国经济陷入困境。 从经济数据对比来看，特朗普的关税战并未达到预期效果。在关税战背景下，美国经济增长动能受到抑制。美国 6 月贸易逆差虽出现收窄，据美国人口普查 局与商务部经济分析局 8 月 5 日联合公布的数据，2025 年 6 月美国货物和服务贸易逆差为 602 亿美元，比修正后的 5 月 717 亿美元减少 115 亿美元，环比 下降 16%，但这主要是由于内需放缓导致消费品及原材料进口降至新冠疫情以来最低，并非关税政策的积极成效。 与此同时，美国国内通胀压力 ...

Core Viewpoint - The implementation of "reciprocal tariffs" by the Trump administration is expected to lead to price increases, prompting American businesses to seek exemptions [1][2]. Group 1: Impact on Businesses - American businesses are adjusting their short-term strategies, such as early procurement and limiting imports to essentials, while also reevaluating long-term strategies due to the new normal of tariff fluctuations [2][3]. - The National Retail Federation (NRF) and the National Restaurant Association (NRA) indicate that the clarity of the tariff landscape presents both short-term and long-term challenges for various industries [2][3]. - Manufacturers, like Stanley Black & Decker, have already raised prices due to cost pressures from tariffs, and retailers, including Walmart, have warned of impending price increases [2][3]. Group 2: Consumer Impact - Higher tariffs are expected to be passed on to consumers, leading to increased prices, reduced hiring, decreased capital expenditures, and slowed innovation [2][3]. - The World Trade Organization (WTO) predicts that the tariff adjustments will negatively impact global trade, with increasing pressure on U.S. imports expected by mid-2025 and into 2026 [3]. Group 3: Restaurant Industry Challenges - The restaurant industry is facing significant cost increases for essential menu items due to tariffs, which may force operators to raise menu prices despite their reluctance [4][5]. - A decline in customer visits to restaurants has been noted, particularly among low-income customers, leading to a decrease in sales for chains like McDonald's [5][6]. - The American Restaurant Association has warned that tariffs on food and beverage products from Mexico and Canada could result in a loss of $15.16 billion for the domestic restaurant industry [5][6]. Group 4: Trade Negotiations - Current tariffs on Canadian and Mexican imports are set at 35% and 25%, respectively, while products meeting USMCA standards are exempt from tariffs [6]. - The coffee industry is particularly affected, with tariffs on Brazilian coffee beans rising to 50%, significantly increasing procurement costs for U.S. coffee shops [6]. - The American Restaurant Association advocates for the exclusion of food and beverage products from tariff negotiations and for maintaining exemptions for USMCA-compliant goods [6].

Group 1: Tariff Policy Impact - The new tariff policy marks the highest tariffs in the U.S. since the Smoot-Hawley Tariff Act of the 1930s, with most countries facing a tariff increase to 15% and specific countries like Canada and Brazil facing rates of 35% and 50% respectively [4][6][13] - The tariffs are expected to significantly impact U.S. domestic companies and consumers, leading to reduced profit margins, decreased market confidence, and potential cuts in investment and hiring [13][14] - The tariffs are seen as a tool for the U.S. to exert control over its trading partners, particularly Canada and Brazil, with political motivations behind the tariff increases [6][7][8] Group 2: Economic Repercussions - Recent polls indicate a decline in President Trump's approval ratings to 40%, reflecting public concern over his handling of economic policies, including tariffs [2][3] - The tariffs have led to price increases in various sectors, with leather prices up by 40%, fresh produce by 7%, and automotive prices by 12%, resulting in an estimated additional annual cost of $2,400 for the average American household [14][15] - Economic forecasts suggest that the inflation rate in the U.S. could exceed the Federal Reserve's target, with potential long-term indirect effects on consumers due to the tariffs [15] Group 3: International Relations and Trade Agreements - Traditional allies like Japan and the EU have also been affected, with both agreeing to invest in the U.S. and open their markets in exchange for lower tariffs [9][11] - Japan's GDP growth forecast has been downgraded due to the impact of U.S. tariffs, highlighting the interconnectedness of global economies [10] - The EU has expressed concerns that the tariffs will disrupt transatlantic supply chains and has indicated a willingness to take countermeasures if necessary [11][12]

Core Viewpoint - The anticipated US-China trade confrontation has shifted to a US-India conflict, with the US imposing a 250% tariff on India while easing pressure on China, highlighting the strategic importance of supply chain control in modern geopolitical dynamics [1][4][6] Group 1: Trade Dynamics - The trade deficit between the US and India stands at $46 billion, which is minor compared to the $295 billion deficit with China [4] - Trump's aggressive tariff policy towards India reveals vulnerabilities in the US defense supply chain, particularly its reliance on Chinese-controlled minerals [4][6] Group 2: Supply Chain Control - The US defense industry is heavily dependent on 80,000 components that rely on Chinese-controlled minerals, making it vulnerable to supply chain disruptions [4][9] - China's dominance in rare earth production (90% of global capacity) serves as a strategic leverage point against the US, demonstrating the effectiveness of non-traditional deterrence methods [4][9] Group 3: Geopolitical Implications - The US-India relationship, previously seen as a strategic alliance, is under strain due to conflicting interests, particularly in energy transactions with Russia [6][9] - The US's dual standards in sanctioning countries, as seen in its treatment of India versus the EU's dealings with Russia, undermine the cohesion of Western sanctions [6][9] Group 4: Future Outlook - The evolving geopolitical landscape suggests that future conflicts will increasingly revolve around critical minerals, chips, and pharmaceuticals, diminishing the effectiveness of traditional tariff strategies [9] - The US faces a dilemma: maintaining a hard stance against China risks crippling military modernization, while pressuring India could push it closer to anti-US alliances [9]