Core Insights - The overall manufacturing sentiment in the U.S. has declined for the ninth consecutive month, with the ISM manufacturing PMI dropping from 48.7 in October to 48.2 in November, indicating a contraction in the sector [2][3] - The trade war initiated by the Trump administration has led to increased costs and reduced demand, with 67% of surveyed participants indicating that workforce management is focused on controlling numbers rather than hiring new employees [3][4] - The Federal Reserve is expected to consider another interest rate cut as economic indicators show weakness, with predictions of a 25 basis point reduction in December [6][7] Manufacturing Sector Performance - The new orders index fell to 47.4, reflecting a decrease in demand due to tariffs raising prices on certain goods [3] - Manufacturing employment has contracted for ten consecutive months, with only four industries, including computers and electronics, showing growth, while others like wood products and transportation equipment are shrinking [3][4] - Manufacturers in the transportation equipment sector are beginning to implement permanent adjustments, including layoffs, due to the current tariff environment [3] Economic Indicators and Federal Reserve Actions - The upcoming economic data, including the ISM services index and ADP private employment report, will be closely monitored as indicators of future monetary policy [6] - Recent data shows that initial jobless claims have risen to 1.96 million, the highest level since the pandemic, indicating increased difficulty in job searching [6] - Market expectations for a rate cut have shifted significantly, with most major brokerage firms anticipating a 25 basis point reduction in the upcoming Federal Reserve meeting [7]

Group 1: Manufacturing Sector Overview - The overall manufacturing sentiment in the U.S. has declined for the ninth consecutive month, with the ISM manufacturing PMI dropping from 48.7 in October to 48.2 in November, indicating continued contraction [1][2] - The new orders index fell to 47.4, reflecting reduced demand due to tariffs increasing prices of certain goods [2] - Manufacturing employment has contracted for ten consecutive months, with 67% of survey participants indicating that managing personnel numbers is the norm rather than hiring new employees [2] Group 2: Impact of Tariffs and Economic Conditions - Tariffs have led to increased production costs, with the prices index rising from 58.0 in October to 58.5 in November, further suppressing demand [2] - Some manufacturers are linking layoffs to the broad tariff policies implemented by President Trump, indicating a shift towards permanent adjustments in response to the current tariff environment [2][3] - The chemical products sector has reported that tariffs and economic uncertainty are suppressing demand for adhesives and sealants, which are primarily used in construction [3] Group 3: Federal Reserve's Monetary Policy Outlook - As the Federal Reserve approaches its year-end meeting, there is speculation about potential interest rate cuts, with expectations for a 25 basis point reduction in December [4][5] - Recent data shows that initial jobless claims have risen to 1.96 million, the highest level since the pandemic, indicating significant challenges in the job market [4] - Economic analysts predict that further rate cuts may occur in 2026, with the terminal rate expected to fall to the range of 3.00%-3.25% [5]

Core Viewpoint - The overall manufacturing sentiment in the U.S. continues to decline, marking the ninth consecutive month below the threshold, primarily due to the impacts of the trade war initiated by the Trump administration, which has led to decreased orders, job demand pressure, and increased production costs [3][4]. Manufacturing Sector Pressure - The ISM reported that the manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) fell from 48.7 in October to 48.2 in November, with the new orders sub-index dropping to 47.4, indicating weakened demand due to tariffs raising prices [5][6]. - Manufacturing employment indicators have contracted for ten consecutive months, with 67% of survey participants indicating that managing personnel numbers is the norm rather than hiring new employees [5][6]. - The manufacturing sector accounts for 10.1% of the U.S. economy, with only four industries, including computers and electronics, showing growth, while sectors like wood products and transportation equipment are experiencing contraction [6][7]. Impact of Tariffs and Economic Uncertainty - Manufacturers in the transportation equipment sector are linking layoffs to the extensive tariff policies of President Trump, indicating a shift towards permanent adjustments, including layoffs and new overseas production initiatives [6][7]. - Chemical product manufacturers report that tariffs and economic uncertainty are suppressing demand for adhesives and sealants, which are primarily used in construction [6][7]. - The chaotic trade environment has led to complaints from electrical equipment and appliance manufacturers regarding increasing difficulties in exporting to the U.S. [6][7]. Federal Reserve's Policy Considerations - As the Federal Reserve approaches its year-end meeting, market attention is focused on economic data, including the ISM services index and the ADP private employment report, which are critical for assessing future policy directions [8][9]. - Recent data shows that the number of Americans filing for unemployment benefits rose to 1.96 million, the highest level since the pandemic, indicating significant challenges in the job market [9][10]. - The Federal Reserve has already cut rates twice since September and may consider another cut in the coming weeks, with expectations for a 25 basis point reduction at the December meeting [9][10].

Group 1 - The overall manufacturing sentiment in the U.S. has declined for the ninth consecutive month, with the manufacturing employment index contracting for ten months [1][2] - The ISM manufacturing purchasing managers' index (PMI) fell from 48.7 in October to 48.2 in November, indicating a continued contraction in the sector [2] - The new orders sub-index dropped to 47.4, while input costs for manufacturers increased, with the price index rising from 58.0 to 58.5 [2] Group 2 - 67% of survey participants indicated that controlling personnel numbers is the norm rather than hiring new employees, reflecting ongoing employment challenges in the manufacturing sector [2] - The manufacturing sector accounts for 10.1% of the U.S. economy, with only four industries, including computers and electronics, showing growth, while others like wood products and transportation equipment are contracting [2] - Manufacturers in the transportation equipment sector are linking layoffs to the broad tariff policies implemented by President Trump, indicating a shift towards more permanent adjustments [2][3] Group 3 - Chemical product manufacturers reported that tariffs and economic uncertainty are suppressing demand for adhesives and sealants, primarily used in construction [3] - The business environment remains weak due to rising costs from tariffs, government shutdowns, and increased global uncertainty [3] - Economists believe that structural issues, such as labor shortages, are preventing the manufacturing sector from returning to previous levels of prosperity [3] Group 4 - As the Federal Reserve approaches its year-end meeting, economic data will be closely monitored, including the ISM services index and the ADP private employment report [4] - Recent data shows that the number of Americans filing for unemployment benefits rose to 1.96 million, the highest level since the pandemic, indicating significant challenges in the job market [4] - The Fed has already cut rates twice since September and may consider further cuts in the coming weeks, with market expectations leaning towards a 25 basis point cut [4][5]

Group 1: Core Insights - The U.S. consumer market is experiencing a dichotomy during the holiday shopping season, with record online spending on Black Friday reaching $11.8 billion, a 9.1% increase year-over-year, despite a decrease in the number of items purchased due to rising prices [1] - Retail sales (excluding automobiles) on Black Friday grew by 4.1% year-over-year, surpassing last year's 3.4%, with in-store sales increasing by 1.7% and online sales rising by 10.4%, although the latter's growth rate is lower than the previous year [1] - The average selling price has risen by 7%, leading to a 1% decline in order volume and a 2% decrease in the number of items purchased per transaction, indicating that spending growth is primarily driven by price increases rather than volume [2][5] Group 2: Consumer Behavior and Trends - High-income consumers are showing stronger spending power, driven by stock market wealth effects, while middle and low-income households are facing pressures from inflation, a weak job market, and high interest rates [2][5] - The use of AI-driven shopping tools has surged, with a reported 805% increase in AI-driven visits to retail websites compared to last year, as consumers increasingly rely on these tools for price comparison and discount tracking [3] - The holiday shopping season reflects a K-shaped economic recovery, where high-income consumers continue to spend on luxury goods and travel, while lower-income consumers are cutting back on discretionary spending [2][5] Group 3: Economic Indicators and Future Outlook - The U.S. labor market is showing signs of cooling, with the unemployment rate rising to 4.4%, the highest level since October 2021, which may further suppress consumer spending [6] - Despite short-term resilience in consumer spending, long-term growth momentum may weaken due to declining purchasing power among the general population and the ongoing high interest rate environment [6][7] - The Federal Reserve faces challenges balancing inflation control and employment stability, with recent comments from officials indicating a potential for interest rate cuts, which could influence future consumer spending patterns [7][8]

Group 1 - Japanese companies are reducing investments due to the adverse effects of tariffs, with non-software capital spending declining by 0.3% in the last quarter, marking the first decrease in five quarters [1] - The decline in corporate spending reflects increased caution among Japanese firms in response to challenges posed by U.S. tariff policies, with a fixed import tariff of 15% on all Japanese goods implemented in September [1] - The impact of U.S. tariffs on industries such as automotive is significant, with profits in the transportation machinery sector dropping by 14.0% from July to September [1] Group 2 - Japan's manufacturing activity has contracted for the fifth consecutive month, with the PMI recorded at 48.7 in November, indicating weak demand [2] - New orders in the manufacturing sector continue to decline, extending a downward trend that has lasted for two and a half years [2] - Rising inflation pressures are evident, with overall input costs for Japanese companies increasing at the fastest rate in six months, primarily due to rising labor and raw material costs [2]

尽管如此，根据Adobe的数据，今年的网络星期一预计仍将成为全年最大的网购日，销售额预计达到 142亿美元，同比增长6.3%。电子产品整体折扣约为30%，与往年相当，包括耳机、扫地机器人和健身 手环等品类仍保持吸引力。业内人士分析，这些产品依然有较强折扣，部分原因是进口企业曾提前大量 囤货，以规避关税生效后导致的成本上涨。 智通财经APP获悉，今年的"网络星期一"(Cyber Monday)原本应是游戏玩家期待已久的"捡漏时刻"，但 今年的折扣力度却远不如往年，显示出特朗普政府关税政策正在影响美国消费者的假日购物体验。 优惠网站Krazy Coupon Lady高级编辑Kristin McGrath指出，往年零售商通常会对旧款游戏机推出力度明 显的折扣，例如2021年推出的Switch OLED通常会下调售价促销。然而今年，该型号依然按照原价销 售，只是附赠免费下载游戏，用赠品替代降价，"几乎没有像样的游戏设备优惠"，让许多消费者感到意 外。索尼、任天堂和微软(MSFT.US)此前均表示今年将上调游戏主机价格，但市场一直期待假期折扣能 缓解涨价压力。不过今年即便是旧型号仍按原价出售，表明游戏硬件正明显承受进口 ...

新华社纽约11月30日电 记者手记｜美国"黑五"消费难掩经济隐忧 根据美国软件公司赛富时的数据，美国消费者今年"黑色星期五"的消费总额比去年增加3%，低于全球 当日线上销售6%的增幅。与此同时，由于价格上涨阻碍了线上需求，与去年相比，消费者购买的商品 反而减少了。 新华社记者刘亚南 经历美国关税政策频繁扰动，被视为美国消费"晴雨表"的感恩节假日零售数据备受关注。今年"黑色星 期五"购物日，记者在美国见证了经济下行压力下更挑剔的消费者、更昂贵的商品以及利润空间不断被 压缩的零售商。 近期，美国就业市场降温、高物价压力持续等因素严重打压消费者信心。美国劳工部日前公布数据显 示，美国9月失业率升至4.4%，为2021年11月以来最高水平。过去一周，与消费相关的负面消息接踵而 至。美国联邦储备委员会"褐皮书"显示，美国消费支出整体进一步下滑，关税导致制造业和零售业成本 普遍承压；世界大型企业研究会调查数据显示，美国11月消费者信心指数降至今年4月以来最低水平。 美国包装食品品牌卡夫亨氏公司首席执行官卡洛斯·艾布拉姆斯-里维拉表示，进入圣诞季，美国消费者 情绪处于几十年来"最糟糕的状态之一"。 更加精打细算，是美国消费 ...

Group 1: Global Market Trends - The S&P 500 index rose by 3.73%, while developed market stock indices increased by 3.41% during the week of November 24-28, 2025[7] - Commodities saw a general increase, with COMEX copper up by 5.64% and London gold rising by 3.80%[7] - The US dollar index fell by 0.71%, and the Chinese yuan appreciated by 0.44% against the dollar[7] Group 2: US Economic Indicators - Manufacturing new orders (excluding aircraft) grew by 4.02% year-on-year in September, indicating continued growth[8] - The US retail and food service sales increased by 4.26% year-on-year in September, but the growth rate has slowed compared to previous months[12] - The US housing price index fell to 338.25 in September, with a year-on-year growth rate of 1.36%, down from 1.57% in August[8] Group 3: Monetary Policy Expectations - The expectation for a Federal Reserve rate cut in December has surged to 80%[20] - European Central Bank President Lagarde stated that current interest rates are appropriately set, with no immediate need for adjustment[21] - The Bank of Japan's December rate hike expectations have not increased, with a cautious stance from its committee members[25]

Core Insights - The "Black Friday" shopping season in the U.S. has seen record online sales of $11.8 billion, but rising prices and tariffs are dampening consumer demand [1][3] - The average online price of consumer goods has increased by 8% year-over-year, primarily due to tariffs on Chinese imports [4][5] - Consumer sentiment has shifted, with many shoppers prioritizing value and planning to reduce holiday spending due to economic uncertainty [6] Group 1: Sales and Pricing Trends - On "Black Friday," online sales reached a historic $11.8 billion, but the number of items purchased per transaction has decreased compared to last year [1] - Tariffs on Chinese goods have led to significant price increases, with toy prices rising from $20 to several dollars more due to a tax rate increase from 0% to 22% [3] - Despite apparent discounts during "Black Friday," many prices have merely returned to previous levels after earlier increases [3] Group 2: Consumer Behavior and Sentiment - A Deloitte survey indicates that holiday spending in Los Angeles is expected to decrease by 14% compared to last year, driven by pessimism about the economy [6] - Approximately 62% of surveyed consumers believe the economy will worsen in the next year, up from 34% the previous year [6] - Nearly 80% of respondents reported that almost all goods are experiencing price increases, leading to a reduction in planned holiday spending [6] Group 3: Retailer Challenges - Many small retailers are facing inventory shortages during the holiday season due to the impact of tariffs, with some companies opting to stick with Chinese suppliers despite high tariffs [4][5] - The uncertainty surrounding U.S.-China trade policies is forcing retailers to make difficult decisions between paying high tariffs or seeking more expensive alternatives [5] - The National Retail Federation forecasts a slowdown in holiday sales growth to between 3.7% and 4.2%, lower than the previous year's 4.3% [6]