国贸期货 贵金属与新能源研究中心 2026-2-09 白素娜 从业资格证号：F3023916 投资咨询证号：Z0013700 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】31号 【贵金属周报（AU、AG）】 恐慌抛售风险缓解，金银或企稳震荡 本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议；期市有风险，投资需谨慎 周度观点摘要 ◆ 上周贵金属价格延续剧烈波动，白银遭遇二次抛售。主要影响因素分析如下：（1）在经历 外盘1月30日的暴跌后，上周一沪金触及跌停，沪银周一、周二连续两日跌停；后在杠杆显 著去化后，市场情绪短期修复，金银略有反弹。但由于美元走强和美国科技股持续遭到抛 售，叠加比特币等加密货币暴跌，市场流动性紧缩风险卷土重来，并再度蔓延至贵金属市 场，金银上周四、周五双双遭到二次抛售，尤其是白银，伴随着CME第6次提保，伦敦现货 白银上周五早盘暴跌至64美元/盎司附近，再创阶段性新低并抹去年内涨幅。（2）直至上 周五，美伊谈判不确定性扰动市场，加上市场流动性恢复，科技股抛压暂缓、美股三大指 数和比特币集体上涨，市场流动性恢复，金银逐步企稳回升。同时，美国2月消费者信心意 外上升至5 ...

◼ 品种观点参考 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 黄金 | 2604 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 强势 | 观望 | 短期恐慌抛售暂缓，去美元化长 期趋势不变 | | 铜 | 2603 | 强势 | 震荡 | 强势 | 长线看强 | 国内供应收缩给予铜价支撑 | 说明： 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货贵金属有色早报（2026 年 2 月 9 日） 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘价为终点价格， 计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为弱势，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为强势。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货 品种：黄金（AU） 日内观点：强势 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：观望 核心逻辑：上周黄金市场经历剧烈震荡，价格从前一周的历史高位显著回落，进入调整阶 ...

2026年02月09日 申万期货品种策略日报-铂、钯 | | | 申银万国期货研究所 | | | 陈梦赟（从业资格号：F03147376；交易咨询号：Z0022753） | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | sunxm@sywgqh.com.cn | | 021-50585921 | | | | | | pt2606 | pt2608 | pt2610 | pd2606 | pd2608 | pd2610 | | | 现价 | 506.00 | 498.55 | 491.60 | 410.50 | 408.45 | 405.55 | | 期 | 前收盘价 | 540.30 | 536.90 | 531.40 | 442.70 | 435.65 | 424.30 | | 货 | 涨跌 | -42.85 | -47.45 | -42.25 | -26.75 | -26.25 | -17.60 | | 市 场 | 涨跌幅 | -7.81% | -8.69% | -7.91% | -6.12% | -6.04% | -4.16% ...

总结来看，今年有色板块(包括黄金、白银)短期涨幅已十分显著，但在经历调整后，全年或仍有上涨空 间。短期来看，建议大家采取逢低布局或分批关注的方式，参与相关板块的投资机会。投资标的方面， 有色矿业指数的成分股数量相对较少，且聚焦于拥有矿产资源的有色行业上市公司，可能更易受益于金 属价格上涨。2025年，该矿业指数的涨幅在同类有色指数中排名第一，因此若大家在2026年重点关注有 色板块，可关注矿业ETF(561330)的投资机会。该ETF在过去两到三年间，涨跌弹性较强。 风险提示： 除此之外，黄金的投资需求增长尤为明显。今年以来，国内央行持续增持黄金，海外新兴市场国家央行 对黄金储备的需求增长也十分显著。因此，无论是海外投行还是国内投资者，均认为未来金价中枢仍有 上行空间。 铜、铝、黄金等金属均存在一定涨价可能性。锂的市场关注度同样较高，近期碳酸锂价格上涨较快。短 期来看，宜春等地出现了矿端供给扰动，部分矿山传出停产消息。今年在储能需求拉动逐步凸显、供给 端存在扰动的情况下，锂等能源金属也存在超预期涨价可能。稀土方面，战略储备需求同样显著，供给 端则持续有配额、管制等相关政策出台，因此稀土价格整体有望震荡偏强。 ...

2026年1月15日，美财政部公布了2025年11月世界各国持美债状况，日本和英国成了最大"债主"，中国 则大量抛出美债至6826亿美元，相较于巅峰时期的1.3万亿几乎对半砍！ 美专家分析，中国这次抛售用的是一种"我们没法阻止的新方式"，美国想干预于也无济于事，那么，中 国为何会大量抛售美债？这背后是金融操作，还是另有深意？ 要说中国为什么要减持美债，得从美国自身说起，眼下的美国财政状况，说好听点是"吃紧"，说难听点 就是"快吃不上饭了"。 全球都在买，中国却不抛售 美债市场现在的情况有点像全球性的"抢购会"，日本买得起劲，英国也不手软，就连加拿大和挪威都在 往里冲。 根据2025年11月的数据，全球美债总持仓已经飙到了9.36万亿美元，创了历史新高，日本一个国家就拿 了1.2万亿，英国也有将近8100亿。 这些国家为什么热情高涨？道理很简单：美元流动性强，美国金融市场深，政治盟友之间互相投桃报 李，再加上有避险需求，买点美债是符合传统逻辑的。 可偏偏在这时候，中国却在往回收，11月再一次减持61亿美元，持仓降到了6826亿，连2008年金融危机 时候的水平都跌破了。 如果拉长时间看，自从2013年中国持仓达 ...

黄金无疑是近年来的焦点，两年前黄金的价格还是2000美元左右，而现在黄金一度超过了5500美元/盎司，当前黄金价格所处的水平，在人类金融史上堪称 前所未见。 回顾过往两次黄金价格大幅上扬的重要契机，其背后均与货币体系范式的动摇密切相关，例如，1973年布雷顿森林体系瓦解，此前30年美元与黄金挂钩所积 累的黄金估值压制力量得以释放，黄金价格在此期间飙升17倍，涨幅极为显著；20世纪80年代，受美国债务危机及金融体系动荡等因素影响，黄金价格再度 上扬，涨幅达6倍。 透过现象看本质，黄金的需求主要源自两大核心驱动因素，其一，黄金作为地缘政治环境下的硬通货资产，具有独特的避险属性。 其中一个核心是，美元的信用基础正遭受前所未有的挑战，美国国债规模已突破39万亿美元大关，且仍以惊人的速度持续扩张，政府通过大规模增发货币来 应对债务压力，实质上陷入了"印钞还债"的恶性循环。 美国国债利息支出不仅超越了其军费开支，更跃居联邦政府第二大支出项目之列。这充分暴露了美国债务负担的沉重程度，以及其偿债能力的严重透支，美 国实质上已陷入"借新还旧"的困境，这种饮鸩止渴的做法无疑加剧了全球金融市场的系统性风险。 比如当某一经济体遭遇美 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the impending global economic shifts, including de-dollarization, the rise of AI, and the cyclical nature of economic trends, predicting significant inflation and subsequent monetary tightening by 2026 [2][4][5]. Group 1: Economic Cycles - The article emphasizes the end of a century-long economic cycle, marked by the disintegration of the old order and the emergence of new challenges such as income inequality, populism, and geopolitical tensions [6][12]. - It highlights the fourth technological revolution driven by AI, which is expected to lead to substantial capital expenditure in new infrastructure and reshape wealth distribution and national power [6][18][19]. Group 2: Real Estate Market - The real estate sector is entering a phase of differentiation, with a predicted 20% of the population moving to core cities while 80% in lower-tier cities face prolonged declines [7][21]. - The article forecasts that 2026 will see a stabilization in the real estate market, contingent on policy support such as relaxed purchase restrictions and lower interest rates [22][23]. Group 3: Capacity Cycle - The capacity cycle is undergoing a transition, with traditional industries facing capacity reduction while new productive forces, particularly AI, drive large-scale infrastructure investments [24][27]. - The article notes that the capacity cycle has reached a turning point, with improvements in supply-demand dynamics and a recovery in prices and corporate profits expected [25][29]. Group 4: Inventory Cycle - The inventory cycle is transitioning from passive destocking to active restocking, although the recovery is expected to be weak due to ongoing industry differentiation and external uncertainties [29][30]. - The article anticipates a potential exit from deflation in 2026, driven by factors such as anti-involution policies and external inflationary pressures [30][31]. Group 5: Debt Cycle - The article discusses the ongoing challenges in the debt cycle, particularly the need for households to repair their balance sheets while new productive enterprises increase leverage [34][35]. - It emphasizes the necessity for fiscal and monetary policy adjustments to support new productive forces and stimulate economic recovery [39][41]. Group 6: Policy Outlook - The article outlines five key policy areas for 2026, including maintaining a moderately loose monetary policy, proactive fiscal measures, and supportive real estate policies aimed at stabilizing the market [46][48]. - It suggests that the focus will shift from merely preventing overheating in the real estate market to encouraging sustainable growth and addressing housing affordability [48][49]. Group 7: Asset Class Outlook - The article predicts a "confidence bull market" in the stock market, driven by technological advancements and a favorable policy environment, with a focus on sectors like AI, semiconductors, and renewable energy [51][52]. - It also anticipates a significant year for commodities, with expectations of rising prices due to de-dollarization and increased demand from the AI sector [53][54].

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Group 1 - The core point is that American consumer power is fundamentally based on "spending tomorrow's money today," which translates to widespread consumer debt [1] - The average savings rate in the U.S. hovers around 4%-5%, while China's savings rate is significantly higher at 43% in 2023 [1] - U.S. consumer credit balances reach $4.8 trillion, averaging about $15,000 per person, compared to China's per capita consumer loans being less than one-tenth of that amount [1] Group 2 - The disparity in income and wealth distribution in the U.S. amplifies consumer data, with a significant portion of consumption driven by a small number of wealthy individuals [2] - The U.S. has a GDP per capita of $77,000, which is six times that of China, but this is misleading due to the large wealth gap [2] - In contrast, China has a substantial number of low-income individuals, with 600 million people earning less than 1,000 yuan per month, limiting their ability to spend beyond basic needs [2] Group 3 - The U.S. consumer power is supported by the dominance of the dollar, allowing Americans to acquire global goods at lower costs [4] - The U.S. economy is consumption-driven, with government and corporate policies aimed at stimulating spending, even if it leads to debt [6] - In contrast, China's economy focuses on investment and exports, resulting in slower growth in consumer income relative to economic development [6] Group 4 - The facade of American consumer power is beginning to unravel as rising interest rates increase debt pressure, leading to higher credit card default rates and reduced consumer spending [8] - The wealth gap is widening, and the actual purchasing power of ordinary Americans is declining, resulting in quieter shopping malls and restaurants [8] - The U.S. dollar's dominance is being challenged as countries pursue "de-dollarization," which threatens the sustainability of American consumer power [8] Group 5 - The difference in consumer power between the U.S. and China is fundamentally rooted in their development models and consumption philosophies [10] - China's consumer power is seen as stable and sustainable, supported by real income without excessive debt risks [10] - The U.S. consumer power is characterized as artificial and unsustainable, reliant on future debt and skewed distribution, which could collapse if its support systems fail [10]

国泰君安期货研究所· 海 外 研 究 联系人 杨藤 F03151619 国泰君安期货·君研海外 海外宏观及大类资产周度报告 戴璐 Z0021475 刘雨萱 Z0020476 日期：2026年2月8日 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint Special report on Guotai Junan Futures CONTENTS 01 02 03 大类资产周度表现及市场高频数据 • 固定收益 – 海外固收周度表现 • 固定收益 – 美债收益率曲线和信用利差 • 固定收益 – 不同评级信用债相对强弱及欧元区利差 • 固定收益 – 美国国债发行量及一二级市场供需 • 汇率市场 – 主要汇率周度表现 • 汇率市场 – 主要国家国债收益率与美债利差走势 • 汇率市场 – 中国货币政策框架演进 • 汇率市场 – 人民币汇率月频指标 • 汇率市场 – 人民币汇率高频指标 • 大宗商品 – 主要大宗商品周度表现 • 大宗商品 – 主要大宗商品比价及产业链相对强弱 • 海外权益 – 全球主要指数及美股各行业周度表现 • 海外权益 – ...