证券研究报告 策略周报：扩内需与反内卷同步推进 证券分析师 魏 伟 投资咨询资格编号：S1060513060001 陈 骁 投资咨询资格编号：S1060516070001 蒋炯楠 投资咨询资格编号：S1060524120002 请务必阅读正文后免责条款 2025年7月20日 1 ※ 核心观点|扩内需与反内卷同步推进 2 • 上周A股延续上行，新兴科技表现居前。海外方面，美国最新零售和就业数据表现较好，虽然关税风险仍有反复，但市场更多交易基本面韧 性，美元指数连续第二周反弹至98.5，美股标普500和纳指上涨0.6%、1.5%。国内方面，Q2经济数据韧性，产业政策积极信号持续释放， A股市场热度延续，上证指数和创业板指上涨0.69%、3.17%；结构上，景气向好的新兴科技板块表现居前，通信行业领涨（7.56%），其 次是医药生物、汽车、机械设备、国防军工、电子、计算机（涨幅在2%-4%），光模块、创新药、稀土概念指数领涨（涨幅在8%-10%）。 • 海外方面，美国6月CPI符合预期、居民消费韧性；特朗普关税风险仍有反复，但市场反应钝化。基本面方面，美国6月CPI同比上涨2.7%， 前值2.4%，核心CPI同比上 ...

Group 1 - The performance of A-shares is expected to benefit from overseas expansion, which is a strong indicator of exceeding expectations in earnings [1] - The market is transitioning to seek new scenarios as the mid-year earnings forecast season comes to an end [2] - A-shares are anticipated to show a slight upward trend in July, supported by stable export conditions and potential breakthroughs in technology sectors [3] Group 2 - The domestic economic recovery path is becoming clearer, with factors such as anti-involution policies and the relative advantage of A-shares compared to other markets [2] - The equity market is likely to maintain a strong oscillating trend due to positive signals from domestic policies and improving earnings in certain sectors [4] - Key investment areas include technology growth sectors, traditional cyclical industries benefiting from policy changes, and financial sectors with high dividend yields [4]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint emphasizes strengthening the domestic circulation as a strategic move for stable economic growth, requiring the removal of both physical barriers and institutional inertia [1][3] - The State Council's meeting on July 16 highlighted the importance of domestic demand as the main driver of China's economic development, with final consumption contributing an average of 56.2% to economic growth over the past four years, an increase of 8.6 percentage points compared to the "13th Five-Year Plan" period [1] - In the first half of this year, domestic demand contributed 68.8% to GDP growth, with final consumption expenditure accounting for 52%, underscoring its role as the main economic driver [1] Group 2 - The policy of replacing old consumer goods is seen as a crucial measure to expand effective demand and facilitate economic circulation, particularly in the automotive and home appliance sectors [2] - On the supply side, increasing investment in new productive forces and emerging service industries can create new demand, promoting a positive interaction between consumption and industrial upgrades [2] - To break through existing barriers, enhancing policy precision and operability, as well as inter-departmental collaboration, is essential to address issues like local protectionism and data silos [2] Group 3 - The need for a high-quality domestic market is emphasized, which requires addressing deep-seated contradictions and issues that restrict domestic circulation [2][3] - Comprehensive reforms and improvements in institutional mechanisms and policy systems are necessary to enhance independent innovation capabilities, providing sufficient momentum for domestic circulation [2]

Core Insights - The Chinese economy has demonstrated strong resilience during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, with significant contributions from consumption, foreign trade, and foreign investment [2][4][5] - The total retail sales of consumer goods are expected to exceed 50 trillion yuan this year, reflecting a robust domestic market [5] - China's foreign trade has maintained its position as the world's largest, with a total import and export value of 21.79 trillion yuan in the first half of this year, marking a 2.9% year-on-year increase [5][6] Domestic Consumption - Domestic consumption has become a key driver of economic growth, contributing approximately 60% to GDP growth on average during the "14th Five-Year Plan" [5] - Retail sales increased from 39.1 trillion yuan in 2020 to an expected 48.3 trillion yuan in 2024, with an annual growth rate of 5.5% [5] - Service consumption has also seen rapid growth, with an average annual increase of 9.6% from 2020 to 2024 [5] Foreign Trade - China's position as a major trading power has been reinforced, with high-quality development outcomes evident in the growth of exports and imports [6][7] - The export of high-tech products is projected to account for 18.2% of total goods trade in 2024, indicating an increase in the "quality" of exports [6] - The service trade scale has surpassed 1 trillion USD, ranking second globally, with a significant contribution to the economy [6] Foreign Investment - Actual foreign investment during the "14th Five-Year Plan" has exceeded the target of 700 billion USD, reaching 708.73 billion USD by mid-2023 [8] - The number of newly established foreign enterprises has increased by 25,000 compared to the previous five-year period, highlighting the growing attractiveness of the Chinese market [8] Future Outlook - The upcoming "15th Five-Year Plan" is expected to focus on long-term policies for economic and capital market openness, aiming to lay a solid foundation for future economic reforms [3][10] - The Ministry of Commerce plans to enhance trade quality, expand imports, and strengthen international cooperation to foster a resilient trade environment [10]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that China's retail sales are expected to exceed 50 trillion yuan this year, with a focus on enhancing domestic consumption and economic growth during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period [1][2] - The average annual growth rate of retail sales during the "14th Five-Year Plan" is 5.5%, with service consumption growing faster than goods consumption, reaching an average annual growth rate of 9.6% from 2020 to 2024 [1] - The contribution rate of consumption to economic growth is around 60%, highlighting its role as a main engine for economic development [1] Group 2 - The foreign trade sector has shown resilience, maintaining its position as the world's largest in goods trade, with export and import market shares stable at over 14% and 10%, respectively [2] - By June 2023, actual foreign investment in China reached 708.73 billion USD, surpassing the target of 700 billion USD six months ahead of schedule [2] - The number of newly established foreign enterprises has increased by 25,000 compared to the "13th Five-Year Plan" period, indicating an optimized investment structure [2]

Group 1: Consumer Market - China's consumer market remains the second largest globally, expected to exceed 50 trillion yuan this year, with an average annual contribution rate of 60% to economic growth [2] - The retail sales of social consumer goods have grown at an average rate of 5.5% over the past four years, while service consumption has increased by 9.6%, indicating a shift towards service-oriented spending [2] - The "old-for-new" consumption policy has generated sales of 2.9 trillion yuan, benefiting approximately 400 million people through subsidies [2] Group 2: Trade Performance - China's goods trade has maintained its position as the largest in the world for eight consecutive years, with a total trade volume projected to reach 6.16 trillion USD in 2024, marking a 32.4% increase since the end of the 13th Five-Year Plan [3] - The share of exports and imports in the international market remains stable at over 14% and 10%, respectively, while service trade has surpassed 1 trillion USD for the first time [3] - The ASEAN region has been China's largest trading partner for five consecutive years, with a 9.6% year-on-year growth in trade volume in the first half of this year [3] Group 3: Foreign Investment and Free Trade Zones - The establishment of 22 free trade pilot zones has led to nearly 200 institutional innovations, enhancing China's high-level opening-up strategy [4] - By 2024, the foreign trade and foreign investment from free trade zones are expected to account for 19.6% and 24.3% of the national totals, respectively [4] - The Ministry of Commerce plans to promote high-quality trade development and expand imports while enhancing international cooperation [4]

Group 1: Foreign Investment in China - As of June 30, China's actual foreign investment during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period reached $708.73 billion, achieving the target of $700 billion six months ahead of schedule [1] - A total of 229,000 new foreign-funded enterprises were established during this period, an increase of 25,000 compared to the "13th Five-Year Plan" [1] - Foreign enterprises contributed approximately one-third of the country's imports and exports, one-quarter of industrial added value, and one-seventh of tax revenue, creating over 30 million jobs [1] Group 2: Quality of Foreign Investment - The quality of foreign investment has significantly improved, with high-tech industries accounting for 34.6% of foreign investment in 2024, a 6 percentage point increase from 2020 [1] - Many multinational companies have established regional headquarters and global R&D centers in China [1] Group 3: Consumer Market Growth - China's total retail sales of consumer goods increased from 39.1 trillion yuan in 2020 to 48.3 trillion yuan in 2024, with an average annual growth rate of 5.5% [2] - The retail sales are expected to exceed 50 trillion yuan for the entire year [2] Group 4: Comparison with the U.S. Consumer Market - China's total retail sales are equivalent to 80% of the U.S. total; however, in terms of actual purchasing power, China's retail sales have surpassed the U.S., being 1.6 times greater [4] Group 5: Quality of Consumption - The consumption market has not only expanded but also improved in quality, with significant growth in the retail sales of home appliances and a 5.4-fold increase in the number of new energy vehicles from 2020 [5] - The "old-for-new" consumption policy has driven sales of 2.9 trillion yuan, benefiting approximately 400 million people [5] Group 6: Service Consumption Growth - Service consumption has seen rapid growth, with an average annual increase of 9.6% from 2020 to 2024, outpacing goods consumption [5] - Key areas of service consumption, such as home services, fitness, tourism, beauty, education, and healthcare, have surpassed household goods spending in many families [5] Group 7: Future Outlook - The "15th Five-Year Plan" will continue many successful practices from the "14th Five-Year Plan," with a focus on enhancing domestic demand and expanding the domestic circulation [6] - Despite complex international conditions, the long-term positive fundamentals of China's economy remain unchanged, with strong potential and resilience in the consumer market [6]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Bullish on Chinese equity assets and commodities [31] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Global economic outlook is positive, with the global economy continuing to rise [7] - China's efforts to strengthen the domestic economic cycle and combat cut - throat competition are expected to boost the performance of listed companies and commodity prices [7][33][34] - The Fed is likely to start cutting interest rates in September, which is bullish for silver [13][36] - Anti - cut - throat competition is negative for China's long - duration government bonds [37] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Global Economic Outlook - China's social retail sales are 1.6 times that of the US in terms of actual purchasing power. The US retail and food sales in June reached $720.1 billion, a month - on - month increase of 0.6%, indicating strong consumer demand [7][8] - The US Markit manufacturing PMI in June was 52.0, continuing to expand. China's June PMI production index continued to expand, and the new order index resumed expansion [7] - Market expects the Fed to cut interest rates in September and accelerate rate cuts in 2026. The US core CPI in June increased by 2.9% year - on - year and 0.3% month - on - month. The PPI final demand in June increased by 2.4% year - on - year and 0% month - on - month [7][13][15] - The number of job openings in the US in May was 7.76 million, showing an upward trend. The number of hires in May was the second - highest this year, indicating a tightening labor market [17] - The hourly wage of US non - agricultural enterprises in June was $36.24, with a year - on - year growth rate of 3.9% [20] - The US wholesalers' inventory in May increased by 1.4% year - on - year, and manufacturers' inventory increased by 0.9% year - on - year, in an active inventory replenishment state [23] - The Eurozone has cut interest rates 8 times, and Germany is expanding its military by 30%, which is expected to boost the Eurozone's manufacturing [7][25] - India's manufacturing PMI in June continued to expand, and its manufacturing and service industries have been expanding for more than three years [27] - Japan's ruling party may lose the election, and the yield of Japan's 40 - year government bonds hit a new high [29] Asset Allocation - China's Shanghai Composite Index has stabilized above 3500 points, and off - market funds are accelerating into the market. Growth - style indexes are more aggressive [32] - Global financial institutional investors are moving away from the US, and the re - allocation of global financial assets is favorable for Chinese assets [32] - Anti - cut - throat competition in China is expected to increase the performance of listed companies [33][41] - Anti - cut - throat competition is expected to drive the Wenhua Commodity Index into a trending upward market [34][50] - Photovoltaic and new energy vehicles are the focus of the current anti - cut - throat competition, and polysilicon, industrial silicon, and lithium carbonate are favored [35][53][56] - The Fed is likely to start cutting interest rates in September, and silver is favored [36][59] - Anti - cut - throat competition pushes up commodity prices, which is negative for China's long - duration government bonds [37][62] - For the CSI 1000 and CSI 500 index contracts 2509 and 2512, a strategy of earning both index increase and premium spread can be continued [44]

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the significant achievements in China's high-quality business development during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, emphasizing the strong contributions of consumption, foreign trade, and foreign investment to economic growth [2][3][4][10]. Consumption - Consumption has become a major driver of economic growth, contributing approximately 60% annually to GDP growth during the first four years of the "14th Five-Year Plan" [3][4]. - The total retail sales of consumer goods are expected to exceed 50 trillion yuan this year, with an average annual growth rate of 5.5% over the past four years [4]. - Service consumption has seen rapid growth, with an average annual increase of 9.6% from 2020 to 2024, while the quality of goods consumed is improving with a focus on smart and green products [5][6]. - New retail innovations and consumption models are emerging, such as "AI + consumption" and "IP + consumption," contributing to the growth of new consumption patterns [6]. Foreign Trade - China's goods trade has maintained its position as the largest in the world, with export and import market shares stable at over 14% and 10%, respectively [8][9]. - The service trade has also grown, with a scale that ranks second globally, surpassing 1 trillion USD for the first time last year [8]. - By 2024, high-tech product exports are projected to account for 18.2% of total goods trade, and cross-border e-commerce is expected to reach 2.7 trillion yuan, a 67% increase from 2020 [9]. - The diversification of trade partners is evident, with ASEAN being the largest trading partner for five consecutive years, and the trade proportion with Belt and Road countries exceeding 50% by 2024 [9]. Foreign Investment - China has achieved its foreign investment target of 700 billion USD six months ahead of schedule, with actual foreign investment reaching 708.73 billion USD by mid-2023 [10][11]. - The negative list for foreign investment has been continuously reduced, and all restrictions in the manufacturing sector have been eliminated, enhancing the investment environment [10][11]. - China is positioned as a major destination for exports from nearly 80 countries and regions, and has established 43 import trade promotion innovation demonstration zones [11].

Group 1: Economic Growth and Consumer Trends - The total retail sales of consumer goods in China are expected to exceed 50 trillion yuan this year, with an average annual growth of 5.5% over the past four years [1] - The contribution rate of consumption to economic growth is around 60%, highlighting its role as a main engine for economic development [2] - Service consumption has seen rapid growth, with an average annual increase of 9.6% from 2020 to 2024, outpacing goods consumption [2] Group 2: Trade and Foreign Investment - China's goods trade scale is projected to reach 6.16 trillion USD in 2024, a 32.4% increase from the end of the 13th Five-Year Plan in 2020 [5] - Cumulative foreign investment absorbed since the beginning of the 14th Five-Year Plan has exceeded 700 billion USD, achieving the target six months ahead of schedule [6] - The number of newly established foreign-funded enterprises during the 14th Five-Year Plan period reached 229,000, an increase of 25,000 compared to the previous period [6] Group 3: Policy and Structural Changes - The Ministry of Commerce plans to implement targeted measures to enhance the supply of quality services, including expanding pilot programs in healthcare and reducing restrictive measures [3] - The Ministry emphasizes the need for continuous innovation in business systems and mechanisms to support high-quality economic development [1][3] - Recommendations include extending consumption subsidy policies to service sectors like culture and tourism to address the shortage of quality service supply [4]