回顾7月的政策会议，鲍威尔主席着重强调，需要给予更多时间来审慎评估特朗普所推行的关税政策对 通胀走势以及整体经济实力究竟会产生怎样的影响。面对记者提问时，他坦言，要精准厘清关税的具体 效应，尚有漫长的道路要走，并形象地表述"目前仍处于非常早期的阶段"。同时，他明确指出，通货膨 胀依旧是美联储在履行稳定物价与实现最大就业这双重使命过程中必须权衡的重要考量因素。他还提 到："当前的经济表现并未显示出受到美联储政策的负面冲击，由此可见现行政策是较为适宜的。不 过，也需警惕劳动力市场存在下行的潜在风险。" 摘要今日周二（8月19日)亚盘时段，现货黄金目前交投于3339.10美元附近，截至发稿，现货黄金最新 报3333.95美元/盎司，涨幅0.05%，最高上探3339.10美元/盎司，最低触及3325.89美元/盎司。目前来 看，现货黄金短线偏向看空走势。 今日周二（8月19日)亚盘时段，现货黄金目前交投于3339.10美元附近，截至发稿，现货黄金最新报 3333.95美元/盎司，涨幅0.05%，最高上探3339.10美元/盎司，最低触及3325.89美元/盎司。目前来看， 现货黄金短线偏向看空走势。 【要闻速递】 在 ...

Market Performance - The US stock market ended the week with fluctuations, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average slightly rising by 0.08% to 44,946.12 points, after reaching a record high of 45,203.52 points during the day [1] - The S&P 500 index fell by 0.29% to approximately 6,449.80 points, while the Nasdaq index decreased by 0.4% to 21,622.98 points [1] - Healthcare stocks led the gains, with UnitedHealth surging over 11.98% due to Berkshire Hathaway's increased stake, contributing to the Dow's rise [1] - Semiconductor equipment stocks faced pressure, with Applied Materials (AMAT) dropping 14% after disappointing earnings, while Intel rose 2.93% on news of potential government investment [1] Economic Data - The US Commerce Department reported a 0.5% month-over-month increase in retail sales for July, slightly below expectations, but June's data was revised up to 0.9%, indicating consumer resilience [3] - The University of Michigan's consumer confidence index for August fell to an initial value of 58.6, below the expected 62, while year-end inflation expectations rose to 4.9%, reflecting growing concerns about price increases [3] - The Federal Reserve reported a 0.1% month-over-month decline in overall industrial output for July, suggesting slight weakness in manufacturing activity [3] Geopolitical Context - The recent meeting between US President Trump and Russian President Putin in Alaska lasted over two and a half hours, with both leaders expressing a desire for improved relations and potential agreements [2] - Wall Street is closely monitoring geopolitical events, as the market is currently sensitive to potential disturbances that could lead to volatility [2] Upcoming Events - The Jackson Hole Economic Policy Symposium is scheduled for August 21-23, with a focus on the labor market and macroeconomic policy, where Federal Reserve Chairman Powell is expected to deliver significant remarks that could influence market trends [4][5]

Group 1 - The market is currently experiencing volatility around the 3700-point level, which is considered a "no man's land" where profit-taking can lead to significant declines [1][4] - Historical comparisons show that previous bull markets have seen substantial pullbacks after reaching similar index levels, indicating potential for further fluctuations [3][4] - The macroeconomic environment differs significantly from previous peaks, with current expectations of continued interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, contrasting with the tightening seen in 2021 [7][9] Group 2 - Domestic savings have increased significantly, with the ratio of household savings to A-share market capitalization rising from 1.18 in January 2021 to 1.73 in July 2025, suggesting that there is still room for market growth [9] - Sector performance varies, with some industries like telecommunications and transportation showing strong gains, while others like food and beverage have underperformed compared to previous bull markets [12][13][15] Group 3 - Valuation metrics indicate that the current price-to-earnings (PE) ratio for the Shanghai Composite Index is 15.78, which is relatively high compared to historical averages, suggesting caution for investors [16][19] - The performance of major indices like the CSI 300 and ChiNext shows that while some sectors have seen growth, overall earnings have not kept pace with rising valuations, raising concerns about sustainability [22][24] Group 4 - Recent trading activity indicates a strong preference for technology and renewable energy sectors, with significant gains in stocks related to AI and solar energy, while traditional sectors like banking and consumer goods lag behind [43][50] - The market is characterized by a high degree of differentiation, making stock selection more challenging than in previous bull markets, with a recommendation for investors to consider broad-based indices for exposure [34][39]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates that the recent rise in U.S. inflation and a resilient labor market have led to a decline in gold prices, as market expectations for significant interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve have weakened [1][3][4] - The U.S. Producer Price Index (PPI) for July increased by 3.3% year-on-year, significantly above the market expectation of 2.5%, marking the largest increase in three years, which has shifted market perceptions regarding inflation [3] - Initial jobless claims in the U.S. fell to 224,000, lower than the expected 228,000, indicating a tight labor market, which further supports the notion that inflationary pressures are still present [3] Group 2 - The dollar index rebounded by 0.5% after hitting a two-week low, and the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield also rose from a one-week low, putting direct pressure on gold prices, which fell by 0.5% to $3,337.21 per ounce [3] - Silver prices also faced pressure, dropping by 1.3% to $37.97 per ounce, while platinum and palladium showed relative strength, increasing by 1.1% and 2% respectively, reflecting the different sensitivities of precious metals to industrial demand and investment [3] - The current gold market is characterized by a delicate balance between macroeconomic pressures and resilient economic data, leading to uncertainty regarding the Federal Reserve's policy direction and its impact on gold prices [4]

Group 1: Market Overview - Gold prices are experiencing pressure, with spot gold trading around $3333 per ounce after a significant drop of 0.6% to $3335.25 per ounce on Thursday [1] - The recent U.S. economic data has diminished expectations for aggressive interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, leading to a correction in traditional safe-haven assets like gold [1] Group 2: Inflation and Interest Rate Expectations - The U.S. Producer Price Index (PPI) for July rose by 3.3% year-on-year, significantly exceeding market expectations of 2.5%, marking the largest increase in nearly three years [3] - This inflation data suggests widespread cost increases across goods and services, impacting market expectations for Federal Reserve policy [3] - The likelihood of a 50 basis point rate cut in September has decreased, as indicated by St. Louis Fed President Bullard, who stated that such a cut is "not necessary" given the current employment and inflation conditions [3][4] Group 3: Employment Market and Policy Space - Initial jobless claims decreased by 3,000 to 224,000, below market expectations, indicating a stable labor market that provides the Federal Reserve with more policy adjustment space [4] - The stable employment market reduces the necessity for aggressive rate cuts, with the market now pricing in a more moderate expectation of 25 basis point cuts in September and October [4] Group 4: Currency and Bond Market Impact - The U.S. dollar index rose by 0.5% to 98.25, the largest single-day increase in two and a half weeks, which diminishes gold's appeal to non-U.S. currency investors [5] - U.S. Treasury yields increased across the board, with the 10-year yield rising by 5.3 basis points to 4.293% and the 2-year yield surging by 5.4 basis points to 3.741%, further reducing the attractiveness of non-yielding assets like gold [5] Group 5: Long-term Outlook for Gold - Analysts maintain a cautiously optimistic long-term outlook for gold, despite short-term pressures, as the Federal Reserve faces a balancing act between combating inflation and supporting the economy [6] - Key upcoming data, such as the spending price index and remarks from Federal Reserve Chairman Powell at the Jackson Hole Economic Symposium, will be critical in shaping market expectations [6][10] Group 6: Geopolitical Dynamics - The upcoming meeting between U.S. President Trump and Russian President Putin is drawing attention, with potential implications for geopolitical stability and market sentiment [9] - The situation in Ukraine remains a concern, as efforts to prevent a deal that could threaten Ukraine's security are ongoing [9] Group 7: Key Data and Events to Watch - Investors should closely monitor the upcoming U.S. core PCE inflation data, the Jackson Hole Economic Symposium, and the August non-farm payroll report, as these will provide insights into economic conditions and Federal Reserve policy direction [10]

关注特朗普和普京的会晤美国总统特朗普在周五与俄罗斯总统普京举行峰会前夕表示，他相信普京已准 备好结束在俄乌冲突，但实现和平可能至少还需要一次包括乌克兰领导人在内的第二次会议。乌克兰总 统泽连斯基及其欧洲盟友本周加紧努力，试图阻止美俄在周五阿拉斯加峰会上达成任何可能使乌克兰未 来面临攻击风险的协议。特朗普在白宫对记者表示："我认为普京总统会寻求和平，我认为泽连斯基总 统也会寻求和平。我们看看他们是否能实现。"，并推测未来可能举行第二次会议，届时将有更多领导 人参与。 普京此前与其最高级别的部长和安全官员进行了会谈，为在阿拉斯加安克雷奇与特朗普的会晤做准备， 这次会晤可能会影响自二战以来欧洲最大规模战争的最终走向。短期来看，技术面信号轻微转空，美联 储激进降息预期降温，俄乌冲突有望结束，金价可能继续承压，但中长期而言，全球经济和地缘局势的 不确定性仍为黄金提供支撑。此外，投资者还应密切关注即将到来的美国核心PCE数据、杰克森霍尔会 议以及8月就业报告，这些将决定黄金是否能重拾升势。本交易日将出炉美国美国7月工业产出月率、美 国8月密歇根大学消费者信心指数初值、8月纽约联储制造业指数和美国7月零售销售月率（俗称"恐 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - Through macro - fundamental and technical analysis, the report predicts the price trends and support/resistance levels of various futures on August 14, 2025, including index futures, bond futures, precious metal futures, base metal futures, energy futures, and agricultural futures [2][3][4][5][7]. Summary by Directory 1. Futures Market Overview - On August 13, domestic commodity futures closed with mixed results. Some commodities like rapeseed oil, soybean meal, etc. rose, while container shipping to Europe, industrial silicon, etc. declined. International markets showed that COMEX gold futures rose, international oil prices fell, and most LME base metals declined. The U.S. dollar index fell, and the RMB exchange rate had mixed performance [14][15][16][17]. 2. Macro - Information - **Financial Data**: In July 2025, M2 balance was 329.94 trillion yuan, up 8.8% year - on - year; M1 balance was 111.06 trillion yuan, up 5.6% year - on - year. The net capital injection in the first seven months was 465.1 billion yuan. RMB loans increased by 12.87 trillion yuan, and deposits increased by 18.44 trillion yuan. The social financing scale stock was 431.26 trillion yuan, up 9% year - on - year [8]. - **"Double Discount" Policy**: The "double discount" policy for personal consumption loans and service business loans has a one - year term, and its extension will be studied later [9]. - **Equipment Update**: 188 billion yuan of investment subsidy funds for equipment updates supported by special long - term bonds in 2025 have been allocated, driving over 1 trillion yuan in total investment [10]. - **Social Security Fund**: As of August 12, the social security fund appeared in the top ten tradable shares of 41 A - shares, with a total market value of 12.622 billion yuan. It increased holdings in rural commercial banks, feed, and small household appliances, and reduced holdings in power, chemical raw materials, and medical devices [11]. - **Countermeasures against the EU**: China included two EU banks in the counter - list in response to the EU's sanctions on two Chinese financial institutions [12]. - **Fed Outlook**: U.S. Treasury Secretary Bessent is optimistic about the Fed's September meeting, with a possible 50 - basis - point rate cut and a series of rate cuts. Trump is considering candidates for the Fed chair [13]. 3. Futures Market Analysis and Forecast Index Futures - On August 13, major index futures contracts showed an upward trend. It is expected that on August 14, index futures will show a strong - side oscillation. For the whole of August 2025, they are also expected to be strong - side oscillating or oscillating strongly [18][19][22][23]. Bond Futures - On August 13, the ten - year and thirty - year bond futures contracts showed a slight upward trend. On August 14, they are expected to have a wide - range oscillation [37][41]. Precious Metal Futures - On August 13, gold and silver futures contracts showed a slight upward trend. In August 2025, they are expected to have a strong - side wide - range oscillation, and on August 14, they are expected to be strong - side oscillating [42][48]. Base Metal Futures - On August 13, copper, aluminum, and other base metal futures contracts showed a slight upward trend, while alumina, industrial silicon, and others declined. In August 2025, they are expected to have various trends such as strong - side wide - range oscillation, wide - range oscillation, etc. On August 14, copper, aluminum, and alumina are expected to be weak - side oscillating, and industrial silicon and polysilicon are expected to have a wide - range oscillation [53][59][65][70][72]. Energy Futures - On August 13, the crude oil futures contract declined. In August 2025, it is expected to have a wide - range oscillation, and on August 14, it is expected to be weak - side oscillating [100]. Agricultural Futures - On August 13, the rapeseed meal futures contract rose significantly. On August 14, it is expected to be weak - side oscillating. Other agricultural futures such as PTA and PVC are expected to be weak - side oscillating on August 14 [7][105][108][110].

Market Performance - US stock indices collectively rose, with the Dow Jones up 1.04%, Nasdaq slightly up 0.14%, and S&P 500 climbing 0.32% [1] - Individual stock performances varied, with Apple, Amazon, and Berkshire Hathaway increasing by 1.6%, 1.39%, and 1.53% respectively, while Nvidia, Microsoft, and Tesla saw slight declines of 0.88%, 1.64%, and 0.47% [1] Chinese Stocks - Chinese concept stocks experienced significant gains, with the Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index rising over 2% [2] - Notable increases included Alibaba and Baidu both up over 3%, NetEase up over 2%, JD.com up over 1%, Ctrip up over 4%, and Bilibili up over 6% [2] Geopolitical Impact - US Treasury Secretary Mnuchin indicated that if the upcoming Trump-Putin meeting does not go well, the US may increase sanctions on Russia or impose secondary tariffs [4] - Trump's comments suggested that if the meeting is successful, a second meeting could occur soon, involving Ukrainian President Zelensky [4] Oil Market Reaction - Oil prices showed volatility influenced by geopolitical factors, with Brent crude reaching $66.30 and WTI crude rising above $63.10 before both saw declines [5] - By the end of the trading day, WTI crude fell below $62.00, down over 1.9%, and Brent crude approached $65.00, down nearly 1.7% [5] Economic Analysis - Goldman Sachs reported that the burden of tariff costs is shifting towards consumers, with their share expected to rise from 22% to 67% by October [7] - The report predicts that the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index will reach a year-on-year growth of 3.2% by December, up from 2.6% in June [7] - Trump's criticism of Goldman Sachs' findings was met with a firm defense from the bank's chief economist, who maintained that consumers will bear a significant portion of tariff costs [9][10]

前世界银行行长David Malpass：美联储处于正轨之上，变化将是工具性的。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the impact of tariffs on inflation in the U.S., suggesting that the duration of tariffs (temporary vs. long-term) is more critical than their mere existence in determining inflationary pressures [4][11]. Tariff Classification - The paper categorizes post-World War II U.S. tariffs into two types: temporary and long-term, revealing that approximately 80% of historical tariff fluctuations are temporary [5][9]. Economic Behavior - If tariffs are perceived as temporary, businesses and consumers may adjust their purchasing behavior and reduce price increase pressures, potentially leading to a more stable economic environment [7][9]. - Conversely, if tariffs are seen as permanent, businesses are likely to incorporate costs into prices, resulting in a one-time price increase followed by stabilization [8][9]. Historical Examples - Historical instances, such as Nixon's 1971 import surcharge and Ford's 1975 oil import fee, demonstrate that temporary tariffs do not significantly impact inflation or economic growth, often coinciding with interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [10][11]. Market Sentiment - The market's primary concern is not whether tariffs are imposed but rather their expected duration, which influences economic cycles and Federal Reserve policies [11][13]. Federal Reserve's Dilemma - The Federal Reserve faces uncertainty in its decision-making, balancing concerns over inflation from tariffs with the need to respond to early signs of economic slowdown [14][15]. Emerging Concerns - Two significant narratives are developing in the market: the impact of data revisions on perceptions of economic stability and concerns regarding attacks on central bank independence, which historically correlate with higher inflation [18][19][20].