美国亚特兰大联储主席Raphael Bostic：美联储在让通胀重返目标2%方面恪守承诺。 ...

技术面从黄金一小时图来看昨日黄金亚盘冲高测压4150受阻回修，符合预期判断，晚间行情出现回调， 回撤4100附近也迎合技术需要，但是随后行情很快回弹是比较意外的，这可能会使得短线行情走居高震 荡路线，局限了下半周的调整的预期，同时也局限了短线上方再走高的动能。根据小时图结构，日内黄 金暂看居高震荡，下方继续关注4110-00一带测试，上方关注4150-55一带短压，暂时看此区间震荡。若 日内行情有下破区间动作，那么下方着重关注4080附近争夺，此位也是20日线强支撑位，若上破区间则 再看4180附近压力，此位也是前期下跌调整行情的破位口。 劳动力市场指标走弱。高盛估计，美国10月非农就业岗位减少约5万个，将为2020年以来最大降幅。就 业数据公司ADP估计，在截至10月25日的四周内，私营部门每周减少11250个工作岗位。 美联储内部政策分歧是短期主要压力源。克利夫兰联储主席强调通胀仍处高位，认为进一步降息为时过 早；而美联储理事米兰周二继续放鸽，公开表示"鉴于劳动力市场疲软和通胀率下降，12月份降息50个 基点可能是合适的"。 此外，美国参议院推进临时拨款法案缓解政府关门风险，最快将于周三进行最终表决，随后 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The report analyzes various commodities and financial markets, including energy, metals, agricultural products, and financial derivatives, providing insights into their price trends, supply - demand dynamics, and investment suggestions based on current market conditions and macro - economic factors [2][3][4] Summary by Commodity Categories Energy - **Crude Oil**: Overnight international oil prices rebounded, but there is still downside potential for oil prices this year. Short - term support exists due to geopolitical factors, and attention should be paid to short - selling opportunities after the rebound [2] - **Fuel Oil & Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: High - sulfur fuel oil supply tends to be loose, while low - sulfur fuel oil gets short - term support, and the spread between high - and low - sulfur fuel oils is expected to widen further [22] - **Asphalt**: The poor shipment volume falsifies the construction rush demand expectation, and the market is bearish with significant pressure on prices [23] - **Liquefied Petroleum Gas (LPG)**: LPG shows a narrow - range oscillation and is relatively strong among oil futures. The decrease in supply and the increase in demand support the LPG market [24] Metals - **Precious Metals**: Overnight, precious metals fluctuated with large intraday swings. They lack a strong driving force and may continue to consolidate. Attention should be paid to the $4150/ounce resistance level for international gold prices [3] - **Base Metals** - **Copper**: Overnight, Shanghai copper showed a position - reducing oscillation. The upward momentum of the copper market is declining, and short - term trading strategies such as buying put options are recommended [4] - **Aluminum**: Overnight, Shanghai aluminum oscillated slightly stronger. Attention should be paid to the resistance around the November 2024 high of 21,800 yuan [5] - **Alumina**: Supply is in excess, and it is expected to operate weakly with limited rebound space [6] - **Zinc**: The zinc ingot export window is open. Low inventory supports the external market, and Shanghai zinc is expected to follow the external market to make up for the increase [8] - **Lead**: The external market rebounds strongly, and the domestic market is supported by rigid demand and is expected to oscillate in the range of 17,300 - 17,600 yuan [9] - **Nickel and Stainless Steel**: The nickel market is affected by over - supply, and the price is expected to be weak [10] - **Tin**: Affected by news from Indonesia, the short - term upward momentum is strong, and short - selling above 290,000 yuan is recommended [11] - **Carbonate Lithium**: It shows a slight correction and is expected to oscillate strongly in the short term due to improved demand and reduced inventory [12] - **Polysilicon**: The futures price drops significantly, and the short - term price is expected to oscillate, with attention paid to the support at the lower edge of the range [13] - **Industrial Silicon**: The futures price declines slightly, and the short - term is expected to oscillate after the center of gravity rises [14] Ferrous Metals - **Iron Ore**: The supply is relatively stable, and the demand is weak. The price is expected to oscillate [16] - **Coke**: The downstream acceptance of the fourth - round price increase is poor, and the price is expected to oscillate strongly [17] - **Coking Coal**: The supply is sufficient, and the demand is weak. The price is expected to oscillate strongly [18] - **Manganese Silicon**: The price oscillates weakly, with strong support at the bottom [19] - **Silicon Iron**: The price oscillates weakly, and it is judged to be easy to rise and difficult to fall [20] Chemicals - **Benzene and Its Derivatives**: Benzene is weak, styrene maintains a tight supply - demand balance but is under price pressure, and polypropylene, plastic, and propylene have weak supply - demand support [27][28][29] - **PVC and Caustic Soda**: PVC is expected to run at a low level due to high supply and low demand, while caustic soda runs weakly [30] - **PX and PTA**: They oscillate, with a bearish outlook in the short - to - medium term and an expected inventory build - up for PTA [31] - **Ethylene Glycol**: Supply growth pressure is large, and a bearish view is maintained [32] - **Short - Fiber and Bottle - Chip**: Short - fiber has a good spot pattern but weakening demand, while bottle - chip demand fades with processing margin pressure [33] Agricultural Products - **Grains and Oilseeds** - **Soybeans and Soybean Meal**: The supply of soybeans is expected to be sufficient in the fourth quarter, and there may be inventory reduction in the first quarter of next year. Attention should be paid to the USDA report [37] - **Soybean Oil and Palm Oil**: Vegetable oil boosts the prices of soybean oil and palm oil. Palm oil is in a high - inventory situation, and its price is oscillating [38] - **Rapeseed and Rapeseed Oil**: The shortage of rapeseed in coastal areas supports rapeseed oil prices. Short - term observation is recommended [39] - **Corn**: The futures price oscillates at a high level, and the supply is expected to be loose, with limited rebound height [41] - **Livestock and Poultry Products** - **Pigs**: The spot price drops slightly, and the futures price may rebound seasonally, with attention paid to the supply release rhythm [42] - **Eggs**: The far - month futures price rises, and the near - month price is weak. Observation is recommended [43] - **Cotton and Sugar** - **Cotton**: The price oscillates, with new - cotton cost providing support and demand being average [44] - **Sugar**: The international market supply is sufficient, and the domestic market focuses on the new - season output estimate [45] - **Fruits and Others** - **Apples**: The price oscillates widely, and a bearish operation idea is maintained due to inventory pressure [46] - **Timber**: The price runs weakly, with low inventory providing support [47] - **Paper Pulp**: The price rises, and the short - term upward space may be limited. Long positions should be held cautiously [48] Financial Derivatives - **Stock Index**: A - shares are weakly sorted, and futures contracts decline. Attention should be paid to the stability of the RMB exchange rate and domestic policy signals. A mid - term focus on technology and advanced manufacturing is recommended [49] - **Treasury Bonds**: Treasury bond futures oscillate upward, and the steepening of the yield curve is expected to end [50] Shipping - **Container Shipping Index (European Line)**: The reduction of shipping prices by shipping companies suppresses market sentiment. The downward space of the December contract is limited, and attention should be paid to cargo volume improvement and the adjustment of the 02 - contract delivery rules [21]

Report Summary 1. Market Performance on November 11, 2025 - A-share market declined with the Shanghai Composite Index down 0.39% to 4002.76, Shenzhen Component Index down 1.03% to 13289.01, and ChiNext Index down 1.40% to 3134.32. Trading volume was 19936 billion, a decrease of 1809 billion from the previous day [1] - The CSI 300 Index closed at 4652.17, down 42.88 [2] - The weighted coke index closed at 1717.6, down 59.5; the weighted coking coal index closed at 1231.8 yuan, down 40.7 [2][3] - Palm oil futures rose 0.92% to 8770, with a high of 8850 and a low of 8678 [5] - Shanghai copper futures rose 0.35% to 86630 yuan/ton [5] - Iron ore futures rose 0.2% to 763 yuan [5] - Asphalt futures rose 0.56% to 3050 yuan [5] - Rebar (rb2601) closed at 3025 yuan/ton, hot-rolled coil (hc2601) at 3242 yuan/ton [6] - Alumina (ao2601) closed at 2816 yuan/ton, and Shanghai aluminum (al2601) at 21665 yuan/ton [7] 2. Factors Affecting Futures Prices Coke and Coking Coal - Coke: Terminal consumption is in the off-season, steel inventory pressure is increasing, and steel mills maintain a just-in-time procurement rhythm. However, rising coking costs have reduced coking profits, leading coke enterprises to push for a fourth price increase, intensifying the game between steel and coke enterprises [4] - Coking coal: Environmental restrictions in Wuhai are still strict, and coal mine production expansion is slow. Although Shanxi's overproduction governance is in the expected stage, actual production control measures have not significantly increased [4] Zhengzhou Sugar - The expected end of the US government shutdown improved market sentiment. The Zhengzhou sugar 2601 contract fluctuated slightly higher. Analysts expect a 8.1% increase in sugarcane crushing in Brazil's central-south region in the second half of October to 2942 million tons, and a 7.8% increase in sugar production to 192 million tons [4] Rubber - Shanghai rubber futures adjusted due to technical factors after a sharp rise. As of November 9, the total inventory in Qingdao ports increased by 0.18 million tons to 44.95 million tons, with a 0.40% increase. Bonded warehouse inventory decreased by 0.74% to 6.78 million tons, and general trade inventory increased by 0.60% to 38.17 million tons [4] Palm Oil - From November 1 - 10, 2025, Malaysia's palm oil yield decreased by 4.14% month-on-month, oil extraction rate decreased by 0.4%, and production decreased by 2.16% [5] Shanghai Copper - Supply shortages in mines and strong Chinese terminal consumption support copper prices. The price is oscillating at a high level due to macro - sentiment, with a bullish technical pattern [5] Cotton - The closing price of the Zhengzhou cotton main contract on the night of November 11 was 13535 yuan/ton, and the inventory increased by 325 lots. On November 10, the purchase price of machine - picked cotton in Xinjiang was 6.15 - 6.35 yuan/kg [5] Iron Ore - Iron ore shipments and domestic arrivals decreased. Due to increased steel mill losses and maintenance, pig iron production has declined for 5 consecutive periods. The iron ore price is in a short - term oscillating trend [5] Asphalt - Asphalt production capacity utilization decreased, and inventory continued to decline. With weak terminal demand due to cold weather, the price is oscillating [5] Steel - Seasonal off - season and a weak real estate market have led to weak steel demand in November. As steel mill losses increase, maintenance and production cuts are intensifying. Steel prices are expected to oscillate narrowly [6] Alumina - Supply has not seen large - scale production cuts, and new capacity is expected. Although trade and electrolytic aluminum procurement support the spot price, the current fundamentals lack positive factors. The price is undervalued [7] Shanghai Aluminum - Winter environmental protection may affect some enterprises' operations, but production changes are expected to be small. The aluminum - water ratio is expected to decline in November. High - level price oscillations, environmental restrictions, and weak demand will limit price increases [7]

Core Insights - The U.S. government is expected to end its record shutdown, but investors face deteriorating labor data, with Goldman Sachs predicting a potential decline in non-farm payrolls for October, marking the first negative growth in nearly three years [1][2] Group 1: Government Shutdown and Data Collection - The Senate passed a bill to end the government shutdown, allowing key economic data to be released soon [1] - The Labor Department faces unprecedented challenges due to interrupted data collection during the shutdown, leading to potential permanent loss of some October data [2] Group 2: Labor Market Indicators - Private sector indicators show a sharp deterioration in the labor market, with announced layoffs in October reaching 153,000, nearly three times the number from the previous year and the highest for the month since 2003 [3][6] - Average weekly job losses in the private sector were 11,250 in the last four weeks of October, indicating struggles in job creation [7] - Goldman Sachs has adjusted its employment growth tracking indicator for October down to 50,000, a significant decrease from 85,000 in September [10] Group 3: Economic Outlook and Federal Reserve Implications - The interruption of data and the bleak labor market outlook place the Federal Reserve in a difficult position regarding interest rate decisions [15] - Goldman Sachs predicts a 20%-25% chance of a significant rise in the unemployment rate over the next six months, up from 10% six months ago [15][19] - The chaotic data release situation and negative private indicators complicate the risk assessment for investors, suggesting increased market volatility in the coming weeks [19]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Gold: ☆☆☆ [1] - Silver: ☆☆☆ [1] Core View of the Report - Overnight precious metals rose. The US government shutdown negotiation made positive progress and is expected to restart soon. Although it weakens the impact on the economy, it is conducive to the release of phased liquidity. After the official data is restored and announced, the market will continue to weigh the economic and Fed policy prospects. Precious metals currently lack a strong driving force and may continue to build a high-level shock platform. The international gold price is concerned about the resistance around $4,150 per ounce [1] Summary According to Relevant Catalogs US Temporary Appropriation Bill Progress - The US Senate voted to pass the temporary appropriation bill and submitted it to the House of Representatives for review. The House of Representatives is expected to vote on the bill at 5 am Beijing time on Thursday [1] Fed Officials' Views - Fed Governor Milan believes that the possibility of the end of the government shutdown has not significantly changed the outlook. A 50-basis-point interest rate cut in December is appropriate, and at least a 25-basis-point cut should be made. Fed's Musalem thinks the labor market is close to full employment and is currently cooling down. The space for further policy easing is limited, and caution must be exercised. Fed's Daly says there is no inflation pressure from labor costs, and policymakers need to keep an open attitude towards further interest rate cuts [2] Trade Negotiations - Foreign media said that Switzerland is close to reaching an agreement with the US, and the tariff rate will be reduced to 15%. Trump responded that he is discussing an agreement to reduce tariffs with Switzerland, and the figures are not yet determined. Trump also said that he is close to reaching a trade agreement with India, which is very different from past agreements [2] China's Gold Production and Consumption - According to the latest statistics from the China Gold Association, in the first three quarters of 2025, domestic raw material gold production was 271.782 tons, an increase of 3.714 tons compared with the same period in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 1.39%. In addition, the production of imported raw material gold was 121.149 tons, a year-on-year increase of 8.94%. The total production of domestic and imported raw materials was 392.931 tons, a year-on-year increase of 3.60%. In the first three quarters of 2025, China's gold consumption was 682.730 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 7.95%. Among them, gold jewelry consumption was 270.036 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 32.50%; gold bars and coins consumption was 352.116 tons, a year-on-year increase of 24.55%; industrial and other gold consumption was 60.578 tons, a year-on-year increase of 2.72% [2]

Group 1 - UBS analysts maintain a bullish outlook on gold, viewing it as an effective diversification tool and hedge, with a 12-month price target of $4,200 per ounce, potentially rising to $4,700 if political and financial market risks increase significantly [1] - JPMorgan Private Bank analyst Alex Wolf is more optimistic, projecting gold prices could reach $5,200 to $5,300 per ounce by the end of 2026, over 25% higher than current prices, driven by continued accumulation of gold by emerging market central banks [1] - FP Markets analyst Aaron Hill believes the current consolidation around the $4,000 level is a "pause" in a strong trend, with gold prices having risen over 48% this year, and expects a year-end target of $4,200 per ounce [1] Group 2 - GF Futures notes that the U.S. economy and job market are impacted by government shutdowns and trade tensions, with increased uncertainty in short-term policies due to the Fed's hawkish signals, while geopolitical risks and central banks' gold accumulation may drive a bull market similar to the 1970s [3] - The market liquidity is affected by the timing of the U.S. government ending the shutdown and Fed officials' statements, leading to a stronger dollar and price correction pressure, but buying support remains, suggesting a volatile short-term outlook for gold [4]

Group 1 - COMEX gold inventory recorded at 1173.52 tons on November 10, unchanged from the previous trading day [1][2] - COMEX gold price closed at $4118.50 per ounce on November 10, up 2.64%, with an intraday high of $4123.90 and a low of $4004.20 [1][2] Group 2 - Divergence in Federal Reserve officials' statements is becoming more pronounced, with San Francisco Fed President Daly supporting a dovish stance while St. Louis Fed President calls for caution, indicating ongoing policy uncertainty affecting market dynamics [2] - Latest data shows the U.S. consumer confidence index dropped to 50.3, a two-year low, while inflation expectations remain high at 4.7%, reinforcing market expectations for the Fed to maintain an accommodative policy [2]

Group 1 - The core driving force behind the recent increase in gold prices is the rising expectation of an early interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve, fueled by weak U.S. employment and consumer confidence data [1] - Geopolitical risks, including the ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict and the Israel-Palestine conflict, provide solid support for gold as a safe-haven asset [1] - The combination of favorable factors has led to strong buying interest in gold, resulting in a continuous price increase [1] Group 2 - Technically, gold is showing a strong upward trend, with daily charts indicating a bullish candlestick pattern and a bullish MACD crossover, suggesting that bulls are in control [3] - The recent end of a 40-day U.S. government shutdown has led to the upcoming release of key economic data, which may cause significant market volatility and provide new guidance for Federal Reserve policy [3] - Discussions around potential U.S. fiscal stimulus may heighten inflation concerns, further emphasizing gold's hedging value [3] Group 3 - A trading strategy is suggested to buy on dips within the price range of 4126-4120, with a stop loss of 10 USD and a target of 4160-4180 [4]

Group 1 - The expectation of the U.S. government potentially restarting has boosted the precious metals market, with December gold futures rising by $85.30 to $4095.10 per ounce [1] - The U.S. Senate passed a procedural bill with a vote of 60 to 40 aimed at ending the federal government shutdown, although its passage in the House is uncertain due to opposition from Democratic leaders [1][2] - The government shutdown has delayed the release of key economic data, including the Consumer Price Index (CPI) and employment reports, complicating discussions on whether the Federal Reserve will need to cut interest rates again in December [3] Group 2 - The December gold futures market shows a bullish trend, with the next target for bulls being a closing price above the strong resistance level of $4200.00, while bears aim to push prices below the October low of $3901.30 [4] - The first resistance level for gold futures is at $4150.00, followed by $4175.00, while the first support level is at $4050.00, with the overnight low at $4004.20 [4]