资金流入方面，30年国债ETF近17个交易日内有10日资金净流入，合计"吸金"4.80亿元，日均净流入达 2825.78万元。 数据显示，杠杆资金持续布局中。30年国债ETF最新融资买入额达2.27亿元，最新融资余额达2.28亿 元。 招商期货指出，5月7日，三部门召开国新办新闻发布会，推出"降准+结构性降息"组合拳：降准50bps， 降息10bps，房贷利率降25bps，推行科技、消费领域再贷款政策，优化小微企业融资协调机制，优化长 线资金稳定活跃资本市场相关规则，货币政策取向进一步宽松。本次政策定位旨在稳定资本市场，而非 强力刺激，属于底部信号。在经济明确出现转好信号前，长债或维持高位震荡局面，但也不排除预期反 转转为下行。在资本市场企稳之后，贸易谈判情况或为市场重心。结合周末中美的贸易谈判来看，由于 国内资本市场已有企稳，中方谈判策略或可更加激进，因此谈判进程或较为波折，可关注贸易局势来回 摇摆间的交易性机会。 截至2025年5月12日 10:07，30年国债ETF(511090)下跌0.43%，最新报价123.87元。流动性方面，30年国 债ETF盘中换手12.82%，成交20.54亿元，市场交投活跃 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the given content. 2. Core Views of the Report - The bond market has entered a volatile period without obvious drivers. The short - term impact of the current economic fundamentals on the bond market is limited, and the short - end has fully reacted to the loose funds. The stock - bond seesaw effect is not significant [1][2]. - After the interest rate cut, although the short - end benefits may gradually spread to the long - end, the 10 - year bond has no significant downward space. The bond market has entered a spread - mining market [3]. - In terms of different maturities, the rotation pattern of government bonds from short - end to medium - end to ultra - long - end is obvious. In terms of different categories, attention should be paid to the catch - up opportunities of other varieties after the high - liquidity varieties take the lead [4][5]. 3. Summaries According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Bond Market Enters a Volatile Period without Obvious Drivers - **Fundamentals**: The economic data in April is divergent. Exports are still strong, but the PMI reflects a downward expectation. The second - quarter fundamentals may face some disturbances, and the short - term impact on the bond market is limited [1]. - **Monetary Policy**: The favorable monetary policy has been implemented, and the funds are loose. The short - end has fully reacted, and the subsequent downward breakthrough of funds still needs to be observed [1]. - **Equity Market**: After the double - cut this time, the equity market has performed steadily, and the stock - bond seesaw effect is not significant [2]. 3.2 Bond Market Strategy: How to Compress Spreads in the Volatile Period? - Although the short - end benefits may spread to the long - end, the 10 - year bond has no significant downward space. The previous low may be an important resistance level [3]. - In terms of different maturities, government bonds show a rotation pattern from short - end to medium - end to ultra - long - end. In terms of different categories, attention should be paid to the catch - up opportunities of other varieties after the high - liquidity varieties take the lead [4][5]. 3.3 Interest - Rate Bond Market Review: After the Reserve Requirement Ratio and Interest Rate Cuts, the Yield Curve Steepens - **Funding**: The central bank's OMO has a large - scale net withdrawal, and the funding is balanced and loose [8]. - **Primary Issuance**: The net financing of government bonds and inter - bank certificates of deposit has increased, while that of policy - bank bonds and local government bonds has decreased [8]. - **Benchmark Changes**: The term spreads of government bonds and CDB bonds have both widened [8].

多地中小银行密集按下存款利率"下调键"，5月11日，北京商报记者注意到，近日，包括哈密市商业银行、 聊城沪农商村镇银行、海伦惠丰村镇银行在内的多地中小银行以及上海华瑞银行、福建华通银行等民营银 行"官宣"对存款利率进行下调。部分长期限存款利率跌破2%，步入"1时代"。这轮中小银行的"补降"，被 视为对前期国有大行"降息"的跟进，人民银行降息、降准一揽子货币政策的落地，将市场对新一轮全国性 银行集体"降息"的预期也推向高点。 中小银行集体"补降" 银行存款利率已全面向"1时代"迈进，5月11日，北京商报记者注意到，近日，多地中小银行、民营银行宣 布执行新的存款利率水平。 在此之前，受市场利率下行、持续让利实体经济等因素影响，2024年A股上市银行净息差仍面临严峻考 验。据北京商报记者统计，过去一年，42家银行净息差全线收窄，降幅在1—51个基点之间。股份制银行 及地方银行降幅较大，平安银行、浙商银行、贵阳银行、郑州银行、江阴农商行、张家港农商行等净息差 下降幅度达30个基点或以上；光大银行、华夏银行、长沙银行、齐鲁银行、瑞丰农商行2024年净息差同比 降幅则在20个基点附近。息差下行幅度亦符合行业趋势，国家金融 ...

Core Insights - The latest C50 Wind Direction Index survey indicates a rising expectation for a new round of deposit rate cuts following the recent "double reduction" in monetary policy [1] Group 1: Monetary Policy Outlook - 19 out of 20 surveyed market institutions believe that monetary policy will exhibit a sustained easing trend in the second quarter [1] - 16 institutions expect the monetary policy to maintain a loose tone through 2025 [1] Group 2: Interest Rate Expectations - 17 market institutions anticipate a 10 basis points (BP) reduction in policy rates, which would lead to a simultaneous 10 BP decrease in both the 1-year and 5-year Loan Prime Rates (LPR) [1] - A new round of deposit rate cuts is likely to commence as a result of these anticipated changes [1] Group 3: Policy Tools - To complement the monetary policy adjustments, the relaunch of the Pledged Supplementary Lending (PSL) is expected [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news is the implementation of interest rate cuts and reserve requirement ratio reductions, indicating a shift towards a more accommodative monetary policy to support employment, businesses, and market stability [1][2] - The Tianhong credit bond ETF (159398) experienced a net inflow of over 170 million yuan in the past five days, reflecting positive market sentiment following the monetary policy adjustments [2] - The recent interest rate cut of 0.1 percentage points and the upcoming reserve requirement ratio cut of 0.5 percentage points are expected to benefit short-term instruments and support a downward trend in interest rates [1][2] Group 2 - The credit bond default rate continues to decline, and the market has fully priced in the positive effects of the policy, leading to a significant compression of risk premiums [2] - Future assessments of the credit bond market suggest that higher coupon bonds in May still hold certainty, with potential for value recovery and further downward movement in yields [2] - The current policy aims to prevent the spread of credit risks while maintaining low credit spreads, indicating a stable outlook for the credit bond market [2]

Core Viewpoint - The recent press conference on May 7 highlighted a comprehensive set of financial policies aimed at stabilizing the market and expectations, indicating a strong commitment from the authorities to support the economy amid increasing external pressures [1][2]. Monetary Policy - The conference signaled a clear shift towards further monetary easing, including measures such as reserve requirement ratio (RRR) cuts and interest rate reductions [2]. - Starting May 15, the RRR will be lowered by 0.5 percentage points, expected to inject approximately 1 trillion yuan into the market [2]. - The policy interest rates, including the 7-day reverse repurchase rate, will be reduced from 1.5% to 1.4%, with the Loan Prime Rate (LPR) anticipated to decrease by about 0.1 percentage points [2]. Structural Policies - New structural monetary policy tools will be introduced to support sectors like technology innovation, consumption expansion, and inclusive finance [3]. - The quota for technology innovation and technical transformation re-loans will increase from 500 billion yuan to 800 billion yuan, and a new 500 billion yuan re-loan for service consumption and elderly care will be established [3]. Economic Context - The need for enhanced counter-cyclical adjustments is emphasized due to increasing economic downward pressure from external shocks, particularly in the context of trade tensions [3][4]. - The financial market's stability is crucial, especially following significant fluctuations in international markets due to tariff policies [3]. Future Expectations - There is anticipation for new policy tools to be introduced, particularly those aimed at supporting technology innovation and stabilizing foreign trade [5][6]. - The implementation of counter-cyclical measures will depend on the intensity of external shocks, with expectations for a gradual acceleration in fiscal policy [6][7].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The external environment is favorable for Treasury bond futures, but considering the relatively low current Treasury bond yields, the impact of tariffs, and the potential for repeated tariff adjustments, it is recommended to maintain a certain degree of caution [7][8]. - Despite concerns about the impact of tariffs on the domestic economic recovery rhythm and corporate profit growth, the long - term performance of Chinese equity assets is still optimistic, and it is considered to go long on stock index futures [10][11]. - The long - term bullish trend of precious metals is expected to continue, and it is recommended to go long on gold futures on dips [14]. - For various commodities, different investment strategies are proposed based on their respective supply - demand, valuation, and technical aspects, such as going long or short on certain contracts, or taking a wait - and - see approach [16][19][21]. 3. Summary by Directory Treasury Bonds - The previous trading day saw a full - line decline in Treasury bond futures, with the 30 - year, 10 - year, 5 - year, and 2 - year main contracts down 0.62%, 0.19%, 0.08%, and 0.01% respectively. The central bank carried out 195.5 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations on May 7, with an operating rate of 1.50%, and there was a net withdrawal of 335.3 billion yuan on that day. The central bank adjusted the 7 - day reverse repurchase operating rate to 1.40% from May 8, cut the deposit reserve ratio by 0.5 percentage points from May 15, and cut the personal housing provident fund loan interest rate by 0.25 percentage points from May 8 [7]. - The Fed's stance and tariff issues have an impact on the market. It is expected that the volatility will increase, and caution should be maintained [8][9]. Stock Index - The previous trading day saw mixed performance in stock index futures. Financial regulators proposed measures to support the capital market, including expanding the pilot scope of long - term investment of insurance funds, adjusting solvency regulatory rules, and promoting a long - cycle assessment mechanism. The China Securities Regulatory Commission also took measures to stabilize the market [10]. - Although tariffs disrupt the domestic economic recovery rhythm, the long - term performance of Chinese equity assets is still optimistic, and it is considered to go long on stock index futures [11][12]. Precious Metals - The previous trading day saw a 0.79% increase in the gold main contract and a 0.21% increase in the silver main contract. China has increased its gold reserves for six consecutive months. The complex global trade and financial environment, potential monetary policy easing, and other factors are expected to drive up the price of gold. It is recommended to go long on gold futures on dips [13][14]. Threaded Steel and Hot - Rolled Coils - The previous trading day saw weak oscillations in threaded steel and hot - rolled coil futures. The real - estate industry's downward trend suppresses the price of threaded steel, but the peak - season demand may provide short - term support. The valuation of steel prices is low, and the downward space may be limited. It is recommended to pay attention to short - selling opportunities on rebounds [16]. Iron Ore - The previous trading day saw oscillations in iron ore futures. The increase in iron ore demand and the decrease in imports and port inventory support the price. The valuation of iron ore is relatively high in the black - series varieties. It is recommended to pay attention to buying opportunities at low levels [18][19]. Coking Coal and Coke - The previous trading day saw a slight decline in coking coal and coke futures. The supply of coking coal is loose, and the trading atmosphere has weakened. The demand for coke has improved, but the possibility of further price increases is low. It is recommended to pay attention to short - selling opportunities on rebounds [21]. Ferroalloys - The previous trading day saw a 0.39% decline in the manganese - silicon main contract and a 0.04% increase in the silicon - iron main contract. The supply of ferroalloys is still high, and the demand is weak. It is recommended to pay attention to call - option opportunities for manganese - silicon and consider short - position exit opportunities for silicon - iron [23][24]. Crude Oil - The previous trading day saw a sharp increase in INE crude oil. News such as Kazakhstan's commitment to the OPEC+ agreement, the progress of the Russia - Ukraine peace agreement, and the upcoming China - US talks are favorable for crude oil. It is recommended to take a long - position operation on the main crude - oil contract [25][26]. Fuel Oil - The previous trading day saw a sharp increase in fuel oil following crude oil. The demand for high - sulfur fuel oil in Asia is showing signs of strengthening. The relaxation of US sanctions on Russia may be negative for high - sulfur fuel oil, while the expected signing of a tariff agreement and the decrease in Singapore's inventory are positive. It is recommended to take a long - position operation on the main fuel - oil contract [28]. Synthetic Rubber - The previous trading day saw a 1.34% increase in the synthetic - rubber main contract. The supply pressure continues, the demand improvement is limited, and the cost rebounds. It is expected to oscillate weakly [30][31]. Natural Rubber - The previous trading day saw the natural - rubber main contract close flat and the 20 - rubber main contract rise 0.28%. The global supply is expected to increase, and the demand may improve due to tariff changes. It is expected to oscillate weakly [33]. PVC - The previous trading day saw a 0.27% decline in the PVC main contract. The supply pressure eases marginally, and the demand recovers weakly. It is expected to oscillate at the bottom [35]. Urea - The previous trading day saw a 0.96% increase in the urea main contract. The approaching summer corn - fertilizer preparation period may not offset the supply elasticity. The potential Indian tender and domestic export - policy adjustment may affect the price. It is recommended to pay attention to export changes [38]. p - Xylene (PX) - The previous trading day saw a 2.81% increase in the PX2509 main contract. PX devices are under centralized maintenance, and the cost support is enhanced. It is expected to oscillate and adjust following the cost, and it is recommended to operate in the low - price range [40][41]. PTA - The previous trading day saw a 2.48% increase in the PTA2509 main contract. The planned maintenance of PTA devices increases, and the cost is expected to improve. It is expected to oscillate, and it is recommended to operate in the low - price range [42]. Ethylene Glycol - The previous trading day saw a 1.55% increase in the ethylene - glycol main contract. The restart of coal - based ethylene - glycol devices is less than expected, and the inventory may decline slightly. It is recommended to participate cautiously at low levels [43][44]. Short - Fiber - The previous trading day saw a 1.67% increase in the short - fiber 2506 main contract. The downstream demand is weak, and the cost is the main factor affecting the price. It is recommended to participate cautiously [45]. Bottle Chips - The previous trading day saw a 1.69% increase in the bottle - chip 2506 main contract. The cost support is enhanced, and the supply and demand lack a driving force. It is expected to oscillate following the cost [46][47]. Soda Ash - The previous trading day saw a 0.90% decline in the 2509 main contract. In May, the number of maintenance devices increases, but the overall supply remains high. The export advantage is gradually established. It is recommended that short - position holders at low levels adjust their positions [49]. Glass - The previous trading day saw a 0.09% increase in the 2509 main contract. The production line is at a low level, and the actual supply - demand has no obvious driving force. The tariff adjustment and relevant financial policies may affect the market sentiment [50][51]. Caustic Soda - The previous trading day saw a 0.76% increase in the 2509 main contract. Some devices will enter the maintenance period in May. The demand from alumina and non - aluminum downstream is limited. It is necessary to pay attention to the device operation and liquid - chlorine price [52][53]. Pulp - The previous trading day saw a 1.26% increase in the 2507 main contract. The inventory continues to accumulate, the supply increases, and the market is in a weak pattern. The trading sentiment is poor [54][55]. Lithium Carbonate - The previous trading day saw a 1.99% decline in the lithium - carbonate main contract. The supply is high, the demand is weak, and the inventory increases. It is expected to run weakly [57]. Copper - The previous trading day saw Shanghai copper rise first and then fall. Although the ICSG expects a surplus in refined - copper supply, the Sino - US talks may boost demand. It is recommended to take a long - position operation on the Shanghai copper main contract [58][59]. Tin - The previous trading day saw a 0.94% decline in Shanghai tin. The resumption of production in major mines eases the shortage pattern, and the impact of Sino - US trade on the downstream electronic - consumption market remains. It is expected to oscillate bearishly [61]. Nickel - The previous trading day saw a 0.35% decline in Shanghai nickel. The cost support is strong, but the demand may weaken in the off - season. The overall supply - demand is in a surplus pattern. It is recommended to wait and see cautiously [62][63]. Industrial Silicon/Polysilicon - The previous trading day saw industrial silicon and polysilicon continue to decline. The demand in the industrial chain is weak, the supply decline is limited, and the price is expected to continue to be under pressure. It is recommended to pay attention to the start - up changes in the southwest region during the wet season and maintain a bearish view [64]. Soybean Oil and Soybean Meal - The previous trading day saw a 0.03% decline in the soybean - meal main contract and a 0.44% increase in the soybean - oil main contract. The supply of soybeans is expected to be loose, the upward pressure on soybean meal is high, and it is recommended to wait and see. The cost support for soybean oil at the bottom is enhanced, and it is recommended to pay attention to call - option opportunities [65][66]. Palm Oil - Malaysian palm oil has been falling for seven consecutive days. The inventory may increase, and the demand is weak. It is recommended to pay attention to the opportunity to expand the spread between soybean oil and palm oil [67][69]. Rapeseed Meal and Rapeseed Oil - Canadian rapeseed prices are fluctuating. The production of Canadian rapeseed is expected to increase. China has imposed tariffs on Canadian rapeseed products. It is recommended to pay attention to the opportunity to go long on rapeseed meal after a pullback [70]. Cotton - The previous trading day saw a slight increase in domestic Zhengzhou cotton. The planting progress in the US and China is known, and the demand is affected by tariffs. The downstream demand is weak, and it is recommended to wait and see [71][73]. Sugar - The previous trading day saw domestic Zhengzhou sugar oscillate weakly. Brazil is entering the production - acceleration period, and the sugar production in India is lower than expected. The domestic inventory is neutral, and it is recommended to wait and see [75][78]. Apples - The previous trading day saw a slight decline in domestic apple futures. The cold - storage inventory is low, and the sales are good. The new - year production is expected to increase. It is recommended to wait and see [80]. Live Pigs - The previous trading day saw the national average price of live pigs remain flat. The supply may increase after the holiday, and the consumption is in a short - term off - season. It is expected that the pig price will first weaken and then strengthen. It is recommended to wait and see [82][84]. Eggs - The previous trading day saw a decline in the average price of eggs in the main production and sales areas. The egg - laying hen inventory is increasing, and the supply is expected to increase in May. It is recommended to gradually take profit on the reverse spread [85][86]. Corn and Starch - The previous trading day saw a 0.25% increase in the corn main contract and a 0.26% increase in the corn - starch main contract. The supply of corn is expected to be in a slight surplus, and the demand is slowly recovering. The production and demand of corn starch are weak. It is recommended to wait and see [87][90]. Logs - The previous trading day saw a 0.44% increase in the 2507 main contract. The supply is affected by holidays and weather, and it is entering the off - season. The inventory is relatively neutral, and the demand improvement is limited. The market is in a weak state [91][93].

投资咨询业务资格: 证监许可[2011]1771号 2025年5月8日 贾利军 从业资格证号： F0256916 投资咨询证号: Z0000671 电话: 021-80128600-8632 邮箱：jialj@qh168.com.cn 明道雨 从业资格证号: F03092124 投资咨询证号: Z0018827 电话: 021-80128600-8631 刘慧峰 从业资格证号: F3033924 投资咨询证号: Z0013026 电话: 021-80128600-8621 邮箱：Liuhf@qh168.com.cn 刘兵 从业资格证号: F03091165 投资咨询证号: Z0019876 邮箱：liub@qh168.com.cn 王亦路 从业资格证号: F03089928 投资咨询证号: Z0019740 电话：021-80128600-8622 冯冰 从业资格证号：F3077183 投资咨询证号: Z0016121 电话：021-80128600-8616 邮箱：fengb@qh168.com.cn 宏观金融: 央行超预期降准和降息，美联储维持利率不变 【宏观】 海外方面，美联储按兵不动维持利率不变，以及 ...

黑色商品日报（2025 年 5 月 8 日） 黑色商品日报 一、研究观点 | 品种 | 点评 | 观点 | | --- | --- | --- | | 钢材 | 螺纹钢：昨日螺纹盘面小幅反弹，截止日盘螺纹 2510 合约收盘价格为 3098 元/吨，较上一交易收盘价格 | 窄幅整理 | | | 上涨 21 元/吨，涨幅为 0.68%，持仓减少 3.02 万手。现货价格小幅上涨，成交回升，唐山地区迁安普方坯 | | | | 价格上涨 40 元/吨至 2980 元/吨，杭州市场中天螺纹价格上涨 10 元/吨至 3190 元/吨，全国建材成交量 | | | | 11.66 万吨。据钢谷网数据，本周全国建材产量下降 0.32 万吨至 426.98 万吨，社库下降 20.57 万吨至 637.92 | | | | 万吨，厂库增加 3.92 万吨至 320.45 万吨，建材表需下降 56.51 万吨至 443.63 万吨。受五一假期影响，本 | | | | 周库存降幅明显收窄，表需大幅回落，基本符合预期。央行宣布下调政策利率 0.1 个百分点，从 2025 年 5 | | | | 月 8 日起，由此前的 1.50%调整为 ...

每日晨报 2025年5月8日 银河观点集萃 责任编辑 周颖 ☎：010-80927635 网:zhouying_yj@chinastock.com.cn 分析师登记编码：S0130511090001 要闻 4 月外汇储备规模环比上升 1.27% www.chinastock.com.cn 证券研究报告 请务必阅读正文最后的中国银河证券股份有限公司免责声明 ● 宏观:货币先行,多箭齐发。从政策要求来看,4月政治局会议要求加紧加快 既定政策的落实落地,一方面再度明确适时降准降息,另一方面财政工具加快 落实发行使用,二季度将迎来政府债供给高峰,货币政策配合的必要性亦进一 步提升。实际上，近年来，每一轮政策放松往往以"货币政策先行"为主要特 征。从上述角度出发,我们认为后续货币政策仍将呈现持续宽松的特征,降准 降息仍有空间。PSL也可能再度重启,新型政策性金融工具也有望适时推出。 0 固收:止盈情绪加剧,债市不空。债市怎么看?5月债市供给量偏高下,资金 面或维持宽松,此外关税压力下外需对宏观经济的实质冲击影响落地,短期债 市不空。考虑到十债收益率目前已接近前期低点,收益率下行最顺畅阶段或已 过去,预计短期债市仍以震荡 ...