Economic Outlook - The recent downgrade of the US sovereign credit rating by Moody's reflects concerns over increasing government debt and interest expenditures, with the federal debt exceeding $36 trillion and a projected deficit of $1.8 trillion for 2024, which is 6.4% of GDP [1][2] - Moody's predicts that if the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act is extended, the federal deficit could increase by approximately $4 trillion over the next decade, raising the debt-to-GDP ratio from 98% in 2024 to 134% by 2035 [1] Consumer Confidence - The University of Michigan reported a decline in the US consumer confidence index to 50.8% in May, marking the lowest level since June 2022 and a continuous drop for five months [2] - Consumer inflation expectations for the next year rose to 7.3%, an increase of 0.8 percentage points from April [2] Economic Performance - The US economy contracted by 0.3% in the first quarter of 2023, the worst quarterly performance since 2022, attributed largely to the impact of increased tariffs [2][3] - Personal consumption expenditure, which accounts for about 70% of the US economy, grew by 1.8%, showing a significant slowdown compared to previous quarters [3] Retail Sector Impact - Retail sales in April increased by only 0.1% month-over-month, significantly lower than the growth rate in March, indicating weakened consumer spending [3] - Major retailers like Walmart and Best Buy are planning to raise prices on imported goods to offset increased costs due to tariffs, despite warnings from President Trump against passing costs onto consumers [3] Tourism Industry - The number of international visitors to the US decreased by 11.6% year-over-year in March, negatively impacting the tourism sector, which contributes approximately 9% to the US economy [3] - The World Travel and Tourism Council forecasts a 7% decline in tourism revenue for the US by 2025 [3] Federal Reserve Policy - President Trump has urged the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates to stimulate the economy, but the Fed has opted to maintain current rates, marking the third consecutive meeting without a change [3] Trade Policy Concerns - Analysts express that the high tariff levels, despite recent adjustments, will continue to exert negative effects on the US economy, potentially leading to high inflation, high unemployment, and economic recession in the long term [4] - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell indicated that the US economy may enter a period characterized by more frequent and persistent supply shocks [4]

| 开盘 | 最高 | | 最低 | 昨收 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 3217.85 分时 王日 | 3240.63 3206.22 分钟 周线 月线 MA | 日线 | | 3201.10 | | VIP | | | | | | | 3239.50 | | | | | | | | 3220.86 | | | | | | | | 3201.10 | | | | | | | | 3181.34 | | 周一（5月19日）亚太盘初，纳指期货跌0.74%，标普500指数期货跌近0.7%，道指期货跌0.71%。 美国30年期国债期货下跌21点，美国10年期国债期货下跌7点。 WTI原油期货跌幅一度扩大至1%，报61.30美元/桶。 | NYMEX原油 | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | CLOOY | | | | | | | | 61.90 | 今开 | 61.22 | 61.98 最高 62.44 | 最低 | | | | 6210 持仓 30.62万 日 ...

止损，永远是对的，错了也对！ 死扛，永远是错的，对了也错！ 横批：止损无条件！ 如果没有交易原则，那么，一切技术等于零！ 黄金今年是不断创历史的一年，元旦节后黄金多空都达到了极致，尤其是进入到4月份之后这种走势更是陷入癫狂；过去100单日涨跌100美元的稀有行情现 在成了家常便饭，日内V型反转，倒V走势成了常态！ 黄金超级无敌大扫荡还会不断上演，主要是由当前基本面决定的！在关税大战，地缘局势，去美元化，美联储政策不确定，全球经济衰退等大背景下，黄金 暴涨、暴跌成为家常便饭，并且越来越多！未来相当长的一段时间里，黄金大概率3400--3100或2950--3500间反复大扫荡，然后寻求大区间突破！做多，做 空，都可以，只要有充足的理由都可以，带好损，不抗单，控制好仓位；只要不损，很容易大赚！ 周末几个重大消息 1、美国评级遭下调，国际信用评级机构穆迪5月16日宣布，由于美国政府债务和利率支付比例增加，该机构决定将美国主权信用评级从Aaa下调至Aa1，同 时将美国主权信用评级展望从"负面"调整为"稳定"。 2、特朗普继续逼迫美联储降息，当地时间周六（5月17日），美国总统特朗普在其社交平台"真实社交"上发帖称：" ...

《 12年前的大盘技术指征重现，重申减仓 》 本系列周度择时观点回溯表现（2023.1.1 至今），其中2024年全年累计收益53.69%。2025年至5 月18日累计收益3.38%。 1 本周建议 | 预测标的 | 仓位建议 | | --- | --- | | 主板 | 低仓位 | | 中小市值板块 | 低仓位 | | 风格判断 | 主板 | 观点简述： 每周思考总第629期 技术面上，被游资闪了腰的技术卖点。 上周5月11日我们首次给出本轮市场反弹的顶背离卖出技 术确认信号，但市场依旧在中国多部门联合刺激政策及当周的中美关税谈判超预期消息下继续上涨， 详细梳理上涨资金来源后我们在周中点评明确排除了国家队、公募基金调仓等因素，并最终将增量资 金锁定为游资，不出意外伴随周四游资大面积撤退，市场应声冲高回落。 综上所述，上周市场继续冲高超出我们对基本面的判断及技术指标的指引，深度复盘后确认为短 期游资行为而并非国家队或公募调结构所致，与12年前的2012年5月初市场冲顶过程极度类似。基本 面上，国内4月货币供应数据再度验证我们的预判、即关税战的经济冲击已经实际开启，即便短期税 率双边走缓也不改关税整体长期抬升趋 ...

21世纪经济报道记者胡慧茵 广州报道 关税冲击波的影响还未显现，日本经济就呈现萎缩的态势。 当地时间5月16日，日本内阁府公布，日本2025年一季度实际国内生产总值（GDP）环比下降0.2%，按 年率下降0.7%，年均下跌幅度远超市场预期的下降0.2%。这也是日本GDP四个季度以来首次呈现环比 负增长。 影响日本经济下滑的原因是，私人消费停滞和出口下降。具体来看，占日本经济产出一半以上的私人消 费在第一季度持平，而市场预期为环比增长0.1%；当季日本出口环比下降0.6%，但同时进口环比上升 了2.9%。这些因素都拖累了当季经济增长。 美国所谓的"对等关税"仍未实施，日本经济似乎已经失去了海外需求的支持，并凸显经济脆弱性。外界 对日本经济的前景越发不乐观。野村综合研究所首席经济学家木内登英在一份报告中指出，在美国于4 月实施关税措施之前，日本经济已显疲软。木内表示，关税的影响可能在二季度更加凸显。这也意味 着，日本正面临着经济陷入技术性衰退的风险。 美日谈判结果尚未明朗，但日本已不可避免受到汽车关税的负面影响。汽车产业是日本第一大经济支 柱，其产值占日本制造业的50%，总产值占到了日本国内生产总值（GDP）的8 ...

沃尔玛公司15日公布的截至今年4月30日的第一财季财报显示，该季度净利润为44.9亿美元，同比减少超过12%。沃尔玛首席执行官道格·麦克 米利恩当天表示，在零售利润空间狭窄的现实情况下，即便是在本周宣布的关税调整措施后，沃尔玛也无法消化关税带来的所有压力，更高的 关税将导致更高的价格。 沃尔玛首席财务官约翰·雷尼在接受美国媒体采访时也表示，关税带来的成本上涨超出了零售商的承受能力。消费者很可能在5月末开始看到涨 价出现，而6月份价格上涨肯定会更多。 沃尔玛首席财务官 约翰·雷尼：关税水平对所有零售商和供应商来说都极具挑战性，当然我们担心消费者会因此受到影响。关税水平，至少是 最初在4月初提出的关税水平，已经超出了零售商的承受能力。因此为了管理利润率，他们将研究所有类别的产品，并研究这些产品的需求弹 性。也许还会改变其他可能没有受关税影响的产品的价格。 约翰·雷尼说，虽然美国政府调整了关税税率，但对于消费者来说仍然太高了，他希望关税能够进一步降低。 美国零售巨头沃尔玛公司高管15日表示，受美国政府关税政策影响，该公司将于本月晚些时候开始上调部分商品在美售价。 摩根大通首席执行官 杰米·戴蒙：希望我们能够避免衰退 ...

Domestic News - The China Securities Regulatory Commission has revised the "Major Asset Restructuring Management Measures for Listed Companies," introducing a private equity "reverse linkage" arrangement for the first time [1] International News - The Federal Reserve's Bostic expects one interest rate cut this year, stating that the U.S. will not fall into recession [3] - New Jersey Transit, the third-largest commuter rail operator in the U.S., has gone on strike for the first time in 40 years, affecting the travel of hundreds of thousands [3] - U.S. one-year inflation expectations for May reached the highest level since 1981; consumer confidence slightly dipped to the second-lowest historical level but ended a four-month streak of significant declines [3] - Trump announced that the U.S. has $10 trillion in investments, considering increasing it to approximately $13 trillion, and has proposed a nuclear agreement to Iran [3] - Trump indicated that new tariffs will be imposed on many countries within the next two to three weeks; Japan may not reach a trade agreement with the U.S. by the end of July, and the Korea-U.S. trade agreement may be finalized after the July 8 deadline [3] - In the Russia-Ukraine talks, discussions lasted only two hours, with Russia demanding Ukrainian troop withdrawal as a condition for ceasefire; Ukraine found the demands unacceptable, and both sides agreed to continue negotiations on the exchange of 1,000 prisoners of war [3] Company News - The Hang Seng Index will include Midea Group and ZTO Express; the Hang Seng Tech Index will add BYD Company while removing Reading Group [4] - The Honghu Fund Phase II, with a scale of 20 billion yuan, is set to invest in the market soon [4] - CATL announced the H-share offering price at HKD 263.00 per share [4] - The Shanghai Stock Exchange will closely monitor *ST Jinguang and other stocks with delisting risk warnings this week [4] - The Shenzhen Stock Exchange will focus on stocks with abnormal price fluctuations, such as *ST Yushun and ST Jiajia, this week [4]

高盛：美国违约率大幅上升的风险下降 金十数据5月16日讯，高盛信贷研究分析师在一份报告中表示，美国经济衰退的风险降低，金融状况正 在改善，商业乐观情绪正在重新浮现，这降低了"违约率急剧加速"的可能性。贸易紧张局势的缓和和借 贷成本的下降为美国企业创造了有利条件。 ...

瑞士央行行长施莱格尔：我们不预期瑞士会出现经济衰退。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The 30-year U.S. Treasury yield is expected to potentially exceed 5%, reflecting a decrease in recession concerns and investor worries regarding the U.S. budget [1] Group 1: Yield Predictions - BlueBay Asset Management's Chief Investment Officer, Mark Dowding, suggests that the 30-year U.S. Treasury yield has room to break above 5% [1] - The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield is considered reasonable at 4.5% but may rise higher [1] - There is a greater risk of long-term Treasury yields increasing [1]