导语 ：散户已经连续买了21周，这是自2008年以来最疯狂的一次。 过去一个月股市的惊人反弹主要得益于普通投资者（Main Street Investors）在看到任何机会时趁低 买入，而专业资金管理人却因对经济增长放缓和贸易战干扰的担忧与日俱增而抛售美国股票。 但随着场外观望的现金堆积越来越多，而标普500指数（S&P500 Index）在经历4月8日的触底后一 个月内反弹飙升14%，华尔街正在讨论是否以及何时重新入场。 "这真是太累人了，"马霍尼资产管理公司首席执行官肯·马霍尼（Ken Mahoney）说道，"对于这样 的情况，没有任何交易的指导手册。" 马霍尼（Mahoney）目前持有大约40%的现金，但在迫不得已的情况下开始购买价格较低的软件 股。他并非孤军奋战，越来越多的机构投资者被拖回市场。 这些投资者此前因美国总统唐纳德·特朗普（Donald Trump）的关税声明以及围绕美联储利率走向的 猜测而对市场的虚假信号持谨慎态度。 原因在于极度保守的定位为他们中的许多人重返买家行列铺平了道路。目前，几乎没有什么能够阻 碍股市短期上涨的脚步，因为交易者已经解除看空对冲，系统性资金开始入场购买，散户投资者 ...

Research and Development Center 轮胎行业专题报告（2025 年 4 月）： 原材料及海运费均下降，关注后续欧美贸易政策变化 [Table_ReportTime] 2025 年 5 月 10 日 [Table_Industry] 证券研究报告 行业研究 [Tabl 行业e_ReportType] 专题报告 [Table_StockAndRank] 轮胎行业 [Table_A 张燕生 uthor化工] 行业首席分析师 执业编号：S1500517050001 联系电话：+86 010-83326847 邮 箱：zhangyansheng@cindasc.com 洪英东 化工行业分析师 执业编号：S1500520080002 联系电话：+86 010-83326848 邮 箱： hongyingdong@cindasc.com 尹柳 化工行业分析师 执业编号：S1500524090001 联系电话：+86010-83326712 邮箱：yinliu@cindasc.com 信达证券股份有限公司 CINDA SECURITIES CO.,LTD 北京市西城区宣武门西大街甲127号金隅 大 ...

Core Points - The dialogue in Geneva highlighted the negative impact of U.S. tariffs on developing countries, emphasizing the need for solidarity and cooperation among these nations to address trade barriers imposed by the U.S. [1] - The WTO Secretary-General noted that current trade frictions could lead to a long-term decline in global GDP by nearly 7%, with particularly severe effects on developing and least developed countries [2] - Economic experts criticized the U.S. tariff policy as detrimental, arguing that it reflects a zero-sum mentality and could exacerbate economic uncertainty rather than resolve manufacturing challenges [3] Group 1 - The dialogue emphasized that U.S. tariffs undermine sustainable development agendas and violate the principles of a rules-based multilateral trading system [1] - Representatives from various countries called for global cooperation and dialogue as the only viable solution to address global challenges [1] - The meeting's extension indicated the urgency and importance of the discussions surrounding U.S. trade practices [1] Group 2 - The WTO's report stressed that if all economies pursue benefits at the expense of others, the outcome will be detrimental to all parties involved, highlighting the necessity of cooperative trade policies [2] - Chinese officials urged the U.S. to show sincerity in negotiations by preparing to correct its unilateral tariff actions [2] - Investors expressed relief regarding the high-level talks between the U.S. and China, as trade between the two major economies has nearly stagnated, raising concerns about potential shortages in the U.S. [2] Group 3 - Experts in Switzerland argued that the U.S. approach to tariffs is economically illogical and could disrupt resource allocation, leading to increased unemployment and rising prices [3] - The significance of the U.S.-China talks was underscored as a means to ease global trade tensions, which is a positive development for the world [3] - The Swiss perspective reflects a broader concern about the crisis facing the global multilateral trading system due to U.S. tariff actions [3]

Core Viewpoint - Jeffrey Gundlach, the CIO and founder of DoubleLine Capital, believes that the surge in gold prices is far from over, predicting that gold could rise to $4,000 per ounce. He attributes this to changing perceptions among traders regarding gold, influenced by geopolitical tensions and tariffs [1][1][1]. Group 1: Gold Market Insights - Gold prices have increased by 25% year-to-date, indicating a shift in how gold is viewed by investors, moving away from being a speculative tool to being recognized as a legitimate asset class [1][1]. - The global physical gold ETF market expanded by $11 billion in April, reaching a total of $397 billion, reflecting growing investor interest in gold as a safe haven [1][1][1]. - A recent survey by Bank of America revealed that 58% of global fund managers consider gold the safest asset amid a full-blown trade war [1][1]. Group 2: Broader Market Context - Gundlach expresses concerns about other risk assets, predicting a potential "crash" in the stock market, with the S&P 500 index possibly dropping to 4,500 points, representing a 20% decline from current levels [1][1]. - Other analysts, including Goldman Sachs, UBS, and Bank of America, have also raised their gold price targets, with Goldman Sachs setting a target of $3,700 per ounce, citing high policy uncertainty and potential economic slowdown in the U.S. [1][1][1].

美联储高官集体泼冷水，"按兵不动"成主流。 当地时间周五，在美联储公布最新利率决议两天后，超过一半的美联储政策制定者公开发表讲话，没有 一位暗示美联储即将降息。 克利夫兰联储主席Beth Hammack在斯坦福大学胡佛研究所的会议上表示： "我通常倾向于采取行动；但在这种情况下，不采取行动可能是平衡进一步上升的通胀和劳 动力市场放缓风险的最佳选择。" Hammack强调，官员们需要更多时间来评估关税和其他政府政策的影响。"当难以获得清晰度时，等待 额外数据将有助于为未来路径提供信息，"她说。她在接受路透社采访时补充说，政策制定者在6月下次 会议前不会有太多新的经济数据。 多位美联储官员强调通胀预期 多位美联储官员，包括美联储理事Adriana Kugler、Lisa Cook以及Hammack和纽约联储主席John Williams，都强调了控制通胀预期的重要性。 Williams特别强调这一主题，称锚定通胀预期是"现代中央银行的基石"。 圣路易斯联储主席Alberto Musalem表示，如果关税对通胀的影响是短暂的，通胀预期保持锚定，且经 济活动明显放缓，降低利率可能是适当的。 "否则，我将专注于确保关税 ...

美联储理事Cook：预计特朗普政府的贸易政策和相关的不确定性将在短期内拖累生产率的增长，这可 能促使美联储在更长时间内维持政策利率不变。 由于生产率下降，潜在经济增速的下滑将带来更大的通胀压力。 在其他条件相同的情况下，较低的生产率可能会促使我支持在更长时间内将利率保持在较高水平。 由于企业不知道关税的最终水平或持续时间，贸易政策的不确定性可能会减少商业投资，从而影响生产 率。 如果保护主义贸易政策支持效率较低的公司，或者如果这些变化导致供应链中断，生产率也可能受到影 响。 人工智能可以在未来几年提高美国的生产率，潜在地抵消贸易政策的负面影响。 ...

美联储威廉姆斯：贸易政策仍处于不断变化之中。 ...

美联储威廉姆斯：贸易政策存在很大不确定性。 ...

市场关注美国经济增长的下行风险。 公众必须要对通胀回归2%有信心。 贸易政策将增加经济增长放缓的风险。 实际中性利率在0.75%至1%左右。 美联储威廉姆斯：没有价格稳定，就没有经济稳定。 ...

美联储的威廉姆斯：贸易政策将增加经济增长放缓的风险。 ...