Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that recent trade policies announced by various countries may negatively impact both domestic and international economies through multiple channels [1] Group 2 - The Bank of Japan highlights the potential for these trade policies to create economic pressures, suggesting a broader concern for global economic stability [1] - The statement indicates that the effects of these policies could be felt across different sectors and markets, emphasizing the interconnectedness of global trade [1] - There is an implicit warning that these developments could lead to a slowdown in economic growth, affecting investment strategies and market outlooks [1]

特朗普发表讲话表示，他看到了与中国达成协议的"非常好的机会"，尽管任何协议都必须符合美国的条件。另外，美国贸易代表格里尔(Jamieson Greer)表示，特朗普政府即将宣布第一批协议，这些协议将降低针对一些国家的计划关税。这也缓解了人们对全球贸易前景的一些担忧。 黄金今年已经上涨了约25%，主要是由于美国总统特朗普快速变化的贸易政策颠覆了市场，引发了对全球经济放缓的担忧，投资者纷纷转向避险资 产。金价上涨还受到以下因素的支撑：资金流入黄金ETF、央行买盘，以及中国出现强劲投机需求的迹象。展望未来，将于周五公布的美国非农就业 报告可能会揭示特朗普贸易政策对经济的初步影响。 尽管此前有数据显示，由于美国进口在关税落地前大幅飙升，美国经济在今年一季度出现了自2022年以来的首次收缩。美国经济萎靡也促使交易员加 大了对美联储今年将四次降息25个基点纳入预期，以帮助防止经济衰退。较低的利率通常对黄金有利，因为黄金不支付利息;同时美联储降息带来美元 走弱的预期也有利于铜价走高。 与此同时，铜价上个月下跌了6%，这是自2022年年中以来的最差表现，因为有迹象表明，全球贸易战开始损害经济，美国第一季度经济萎缩，而金属 铜 ...

Core Viewpoint - The announcement of trade agreements by the U.S. is expected to bring more certainty to the market, reducing the range of uncertainty associated with previous trade policies [1] Group 1 - U.S. Treasury Secretary Becerra described Trump's trade policy as "strategic uncertainty" [1] - Becerra stated that as the U.S. begins to announce agreements, market conditions will become clearer [1] - He noted that while certainty is beneficial, it may not always be advantageous during negotiations [1]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Soybean (Bean 1): Neutral (indicated by 'ななな') [1] - Soybean Meal: Bullish (indicated by '☆☆☆') [1] - Soybean Oil: Bullish (indicated by '☆☆☆') [1] - Palm Oil: Neutral (indicated by 'ななな') [1] - Rapeseed Meal: Neutral (indicated by 'ななな') [1] - Rapeseed Oil: Bullish (indicated by '☆☆☆') [1] - Corn: Bullish (indicated by '☆☆☆') [1] - Live Pigs: Bearish (indicated by '★☆☆') [1] - Eggs: Bearish (indicated by '★☆★') [1] Core Viewpoints - The supply pattern of imported soybeans will shift from tight to loose in the short term, and attention should be paid to policy and supply - demand changes [2][3][4] - The price of soybean meal futures will be relatively strong in the short - term, but its upward momentum will weaken when the procurement of Brazilian soybeans accelerates and North American weather risks decrease [3] - The price of edible oils will fluctuate repeatedly due to factors such as low procurement progress of third - quarter soybean shipments in China and the palm oil production cycle [4] - The downward space of rapeseed meal is limited, and it will mainly fluctuate, and attention should be paid to Sino - US - Canada trade policies [6] - Corn futures may oscillate downward after the release of grain sources, and it is advisable to wait and see for now [7] - The supply of live pigs will increase in the future, and attention should be paid to the decline space of spot prices [8] - Egg prices are expected to be bearish in the long - term due to factors such as seasonal weakness and increasing production capacity [9] Summary by Related Catalogs Soybean - The price of domestic soybean futures main contract is falling, and there is a short - term supply pattern shift of imported soybeans from tight to loose. Pay attention to policy and supply - demand changes [2] Soybean & Soybean Meal - Soybean meal is reducing positions and prices are falling. The supply pattern will shift from tight to loose after May Day. The futures price of soybean meal will be relatively strong in the short - term [3] Soybean Oil & Palm Oil - Before the May Day holiday, domestic soybean and cotton oil are reducing positions and prices are falling. The supply pattern of imported soybeans will change, and the price of edible oils will fluctuate repeatedly [4] Rapeseed Meal & Rapeseed Oil - After the May Day holiday, the soybean shortage situation will ease. The downward space of rapeseed meal is limited, and it will mainly fluctuate. Pay attention to Sino - US - Canada trade policies [6] Corn - The supply of corn at Shandong deep - processing enterprises is low, and the port inventory pressure has decreased. Corn futures may oscillate downward after the release of grain sources, and it is advisable to wait and see [7] Live Pigs - The price of live pig futures has fallen significantly. The supply of live pigs will increase in the future, and attention should be paid to the decline space of spot prices [8] Eggs - The spot price of eggs is falling steadily, and the futures price is adjusting. Egg prices are expected to be bearish in the long - term due to seasonal and production - capacity factors [9]

美股开盘，道指涨0.02%，标普500指数跌0.4%，纳指跌0.55%。通用汽车(GM.N)跌2.9%，公司因贸易 政策暂停指引。亚马逊(AMZN.O)跌1.9%，白宫表示其展示商品的贸易政策成本的计划具有"敌意"。 ...

据路透社报道，总部位于伦敦的海事咨询公司德鲁里（Drewry）4月24日表示，受美国贸易政策的直接影响，预计全球集装箱港口吞吐量将下降1%。 这将是自德鲁里1979年开始记录该数据以来，全球集装箱航运需求出现的第三次下降。在2009年全球金融危机期间，集装箱运输量下降了8.4%；2020年 新冠疫情爆发后，集装箱运输量下降了0.9%。 特朗普政府的新政策包括对大多数国家商品征收10%的全面关税，以及对中国商品征收高达145%的关税。中国和其他国家已对美国商品加征关税作为反 击。 德鲁里表示："假设现有关税政策的三分之二维持不变，美国从中国的进口量可能会骤减40%。" 国际货币基金组织（International Monetary Fund）本周早些时候表示，随着特朗普政府对几乎所有贸易伙伴征收高额关税开始产生影响，未来几个月全球 经济产出将放缓。 德国集装箱运输公司赫伯罗特（Hapag-Lloyd）近期表示，受世界两大经济体之间贸易冲突的影响，客户已取消了30%中国到美国的货物运输。 全美零售联合会（其成员包括沃尔玛和塔吉特）本月早些时候预测，由于在中国采购企业暂停下单，2025年下半年美国集装箱进口货运量将 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report by Goldman Sachs strategist Dominic Wilson highlights the deteriorating labor market as a key factor prompting the Federal Reserve to consider interest rate cuts [3][4] - Wilson predicts that if a full recession occurs, the S&P 500 index could drop to 4600 points, high-yield bond spreads may exceed 600 basis points, and short-term yields could fall below 3% [3][4] - The current economic environment is characterized by high uncertainty in policy direction, low consumer and business confidence, and potential contraction in real income growth, keeping the U.S. economy under the shadow of recession [3][4] Group 2 - The recent market volatility has exposed vulnerabilities in the U.S. financial system, including the U.S. Treasury market, which may face renewed risks [4] - The impact of tariffs on inflation and changes in labor market hiring behavior will take time to manifest, suggesting that the U.S. economy will remain in a "recession watch" period for at least the next two to three months [4] - Federal Reserve officials, including Chairman Powell, have emphasized the importance of stabilizing inflation expectations while maintaining a cautious approach to policy decisions [4][5] Group 3 - Fed Vice Chairman Waller's views align with those of Goldman Sachs, indicating that the key factors prompting rapid Fed action include potential job losses and rising unemployment rates due to tariffs [5] - Waller suggests that tariffs may only produce a one-time price effect, and the critical issue is recognizing this as a temporary phenomenon [5] - The ongoing dynamics between unemployment rates, Fed monetary policy, and trade policy could lead to significant shifts in the global economic landscape [6]

Market Overview - The Dallas Fed's manufacturing index dropped from -16.3 in March to -35.8 in April, indicating an acceleration in contraction, consistent with other regional manufacturing data [2] - The U.S. Treasury announced a net bond sale of $514 billion for Q2, which is $391 billion higher than the February estimate, primarily due to lower cash balances and cash flow projections [2] - Despite an expected 9.7% year-over-year increase in Q1 earnings for S&P 500 companies, many have cited uncertainties from U.S. trade policies, leading to lowered or canceled annual forecasts [2] Individual Stocks - Nvidia shares fell by 2.1% amid reports of strong competition for certain high-end products [4] - Major tech stocks showed mixed performance: Apple rose by 0.4%, Meta by 0.5%, while Microsoft fell by 0.2% and Amazon by 0.7% [4] - AbbVie shares increased by 3.4% after Raymond James raised its target price from $220 to $227 [5] - Aon shares rose by 2.3% as Piper Sandler upgraded its rating from neutral to overweight, adjusting the target price from $384 to $378 [5] International Markets - The Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index increased by 0.68%, with JD.com up by 0.5%, while Baidu, Pinduoduo, and Alibaba saw declines of 0.4%, 0.9%, and 1.6% respectively [6] - International oil prices weakened, with WTI crude falling by 1.54% to $62.05 per barrel and Brent crude down by 1.51% to $65.86 per barrel [6] - Gold prices rose, with COMEX April futures increasing by 1.53% to $3,332.20 per ounce [6]

Group 1 - The Trump administration's trade policies have led to significant market volatility and increased living costs for American consumers, with a projected 65% rise in clothing prices and an 87% rise in shoe prices due to tariffs [2][4] - The Federal Reserve's financial stability report indicates that 73% of respondents view global trade risks as a primary concern, highlighting the uncertainty surrounding U.S. trade policies [2][4] - The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has downgraded its global economic growth forecasts for 2025 and 2026 to 2.8% and 3% respectively, citing the uncertainty created by U.S. trade policies [4] Group 2 - Trump's approval ratings have dropped to 39%, marking the lowest approval rating for a U.S. president in their first 100 days in the last 80 years, reflecting public dissatisfaction with his policies [3][5] - Protests against the Trump administration's policies, including immigration and tariffs, have occurred in multiple U.S. cities, indicating widespread public discontent [3] - The uncertainty in trade policies has led to a significant increase in consumer inflation expectations, with a one-year inflation expectation of 6.5%, the highest since 1981 [2][3]

MultiBankGroup大通金融据悉，美国4月密歇根大学消费者信心指数终值为52.2，创2022年7月以来新 低，低于预期的50.8和初值50.8，较3月终值57.0进一步下降。这一数据反映出消费者对经济前景的担忧 加剧。同时，一年期通胀率预期终值升至6.5%，创1980年1月以来新高，尽管略低于预期的6.8%和初值 6.7%，但仍远高于3月终值5.0%。这一通胀预期的上升进一步凸显了消费者对物价上涨的担忧。 消费者信心指数下降的原因 2. 企业成本上升 1. 贸易政策的不确定性 美国政府的贸易政策引发了市场的广泛担忧，特别是关税政策对经济增长和物价的影响。消费者对贸易 政策的不确定性感到担忧，进而影响了他们的消费信心。 2. 通胀预期的上升 消费者对物价上涨的担忧加剧，特别是在能源、食品和医疗保健等领域的价格上涨。高通胀预期使得消 费者对未来生活成本的增加感到不安，从而抑制了消费意愿。 3. 经济前景的担忧 全球经济形势的不确定性以及国内经济增长的放缓迹象，使得消费者对未来的经济前景感到担忧。这种 担忧不仅影响了消费者的消费决策，还可能对企业的投资和生产计划产生负面影响。 通胀预期上升的影响 1. 消费 ...