美联储副主席杰斐逊：由于贸易政策的影响，经济增长预计将放缓，但全年经济仍有望实现扩张。 ...

·中信证券研报称，美国4月CPI增速大致表现温和且低于预期，但家具、家电、玩具等商品的价格似乎 已开始反映白宫加征关税的影响，本次总体同比2.3%的增速可能已是今年全年的低点。美国关税水平 的"天花板"和"地板"都已依稀可见，贸易政策的能见度正在恢复，这对美股等风险资产而言是件好事， 美元可能也将在近期迎来支撑，对美债的态度依旧较谨慎。 ·中信证券评美国4月CPI：不易持久的"好数据" ·荷兰国际：欧元涨势可能仍然有限 ·欧洲复兴开发银行下调埃及2025和2026年GDP增长预期 ·巴克莱：印度央行可能在6月降息 【机构分析】 ·潘森宏观首席英国经济学家Robert Wood表示，随着就业市场逐渐走弱，英国央行今年可能会再降息两 次。本周公布的数据显示，英国的失业率正在上升，但速度缓慢，而不是急剧上升，同时薪酬增长也在 放缓。英国央行的政策委员会可以放松利率。尽管如此，仍有迹象表明，一些潜在因素在保持薪资快速 增长，并阻止通胀达到央行2%的目标。这意味着英国央行不太可能连续降息，但在2月和5月降息后， 今年有再降息两次的空间。 ·潘森宏观：料英国央行今年将再降息两次 ·荷兰国际集团分析师Francesco P ...

期货市场交易指引 2025 年 05 月 14 日 | | 宏观金融 | | --- | --- | | ◆股指： | 震荡运行 | | ◆国债： | 震荡上行 | | | 黑色建材 | | ◆螺纹钢： | 暂时观望 | | ◆铁矿石： | 震荡偏弱 | | ◆双焦： | 震荡运行 | | | 有色金属 | | ◆铜： | 区间谨慎交易 | | ◆铝： | 建议观望 | | ◆镍： | 建议观望或逢高做空 | | ◆锡： | 区间交易 | | ◆黄金： | 待价格充分回调后，逢低建仓 | | ◆白银： | 区间交易 | | | 能源化工 | | ◆PVC： | 震荡 | | ◆纯碱： | 观望。 | | ◆烧碱： | 震荡 | | ◆橡胶： | 震荡 | | ◆尿素： | 震荡运行 | | ◆甲醇： | 震荡运行 | | ◆塑料： | 震荡运行 | | | 棉纺产业链 | | ◆棉花棉纱： | 震荡反弹 | | ◆苹果： | 震荡运行 | | ◆PTA： | 震荡偏弱 | | | 农业畜牧 | | ◆生猪： | 震荡偏弱 | | ◆鸡蛋： | 走势偏弱 | | ◆玉米： | 震荡偏强 | | ◆豆粕： | 震 ...

值得注意的是，维勒鲁瓦特别强调贸易政策对欧元区的影响路径。他指出，特朗普任内若实施关税措 施，虽可能通过贸易渠道对欧洲经济产生外溢效应，但直接输入性通胀风险有限。这一判断成为欧洲央 行区别于美联储的关键政策考量——当前市场普遍预期美联储因国内通胀韧性将维持高利率，而欧洲央 行则具备更大宽松空间。 作为欧元区货币政策的实际制定者之一，维勒鲁瓦的表态折射出决策层的核心逻辑：在确保通胀的前提 下，利用当前物价稳定窗口期，通过降息缓冲全球经济放缓对欧元区经济的冲击。这一政策取向若在6 月会议兑现，将是欧洲央行连续第八次调整利率，进一步巩固其全球主要央行中最激进宽松周期的地 位。 当前市场密切关注6月6日及7月24日召开的两次货币政策会议。尽管部分官员支持6月继续降息，但对后 续政策节奏存在分歧：鸽派认为应抓住通胀持续回落窗口期加快宽松步伐，而谨慎派则警告需防范地缘 政治风险和薪资上涨可能引发的物价反弹。 智通财经APP获悉，欧洲央行管理委员会委员弗朗索瓦·维勒鲁瓦·德加洛周二在接受采访时指出，若特 朗普政府推行保护主义政策，可能引发美国通胀回升，但欧洲通胀压力不会因此加剧。这一判断为其支 持欧洲央行夏季降息的立场提供 ...

金十数据5月13日讯，美国投资管理公司First Eagle高级副总裁Idanna Appio表示，在4月份温和的CPI报 告之后，未来几个月美国通胀可能会回升。预计在贸易方面还会有其他举措，可能会宣布新的关税和协 议。我们必须拭目以待，看看其中一些交易的结果如何。最近的美英贸易协议和与中国的关税暂停表 明，关税将"大大低于"此前的预期。美联储似乎更愿意接受这样一种观点，即关税对通胀的影响可能不 仅仅是暂时的。 随着贸易政策的演变，美国通胀预计会上升 ...

Group 1 - The annual growth rate of the Consumer Price Index (CPI) in the U.S. for April was 2.3%, a slight decrease from 2.4% in March, marking the lowest level since February 2021 [1] - Core CPI remained stable at 2.8%, aligning with market expectations, while the month-on-month inflation rate increased by 0.2%, surpassing the previous month's decline of -0.1% [1] - Energy prices fell by 3.7% year-on-year, further widening the decline from March, primarily due to a drop in fuel prices [1][3] Group 2 - The new tariffs have not yet significantly impacted costs in affected industries, with clothing prices decreasing by 0.2% and new car prices remaining stable [3] - Core commodity prices saw a slight increase of 0.1% last month, while service sector inflation continued to ease [3] - The "super core CPI," which excludes housing, dropped to 3.01%, the lowest since December 2021, indicating a potential shift in inflation dynamics [3] Group 3 - Analysts suggest that while tariffs have not led to widespread price increases, this may be a temporary situation, and some cost increases may eventually be passed on to consumers [4] - The lower-than-expected inflation data has provided support for asset prices in financial markets, delaying recession and stagflation risks [4] - Future months' data and developments in trade policy will be crucial in determining the sustainability of current inflation trends [4]

Group 1 - Recent easing of tariff policies and normalization of trade policies may drive markets back to pre-2025 conditions, with a positive outlook on U.S. stocks, particularly small and mid-cap stocks, as well as investment-grade bonds in Europe and the U.S. due to attractive yields and improving macro conditions [1] - The Chinese market has largely recovered to levels seen before the "Liberation Day" tariffs were announced in early April, with sectors such as electric vehicle batteries, construction machinery, home appliances, and pet food companies likely to benefit [1] - Rapid progress in U.S.-China trade negotiations has surprised the market, alongside the recent U.S.-U.K. trade agreement, indicating the White House's intention to alleviate trade tensions faster than expected [1] Group 2 - The recent volatility in U.S. local policies has led to market tensions, prompting a downgrade of U.S. assets, but a reversal of these fund flows may now be observed [2] - Reduced tariff uncertainty has lowered the likelihood of an economic recession, with investors potentially looking past the current downturn and anticipating a recovery in the U.S. economy and assets [2] - The U.S. government appears to be shifting its policy direction towards easing tariffs and focusing on growth-promoting measures such as tax cuts [2]

Core Insights - The Federal Reserve faces unprecedented challenges in assessing economic potential due to rapid changes in trade policy and prior inventory accumulation by U.S. households and businesses [1][3] - Uncertainty surrounding tariffs and trade negotiations complicates predictions for economic growth and inflation trends [1][5] - Lower tariffs could potentially stimulate economic growth, influencing market expectations regarding the frequency of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [1][5] Economic Data Summary - Despite continued growth in the U.S. economy, a sharp increase in imports has led to a contraction in economic output [3] - Advance purchasing by households and businesses to avoid tariff increases has temporarily boosted consumption but may lead to decreased demand in the future, posing risks for economic slowdown [3] - The Federal Reserve may opt to maintain current interest rates until the economic outlook becomes clearer, supporting the recent decision to keep rates unchanged to manage inflation risks [3][5] Challenges and Outlook - The complexity and challenges in the current economic environment are underscored by fluctuating trade policies, global economic uncertainty, and changing consumer behavior [5] - Despite these challenges, there is cautious optimism regarding the existing monetary policy's ability to adapt to potential future economic changes [5]

5月12日，中美经贸高层会谈达成重要共识，并取得实质性进展。市场担忧情绪有所缓和，当天中国、 美国、欧洲等全球主要股票市场指数纷纷上涨，原油期货亦大幅上涨，黄金等避险资产则出现大幅下 跌。13日，亚太股市多数开盘继续走强。 当天，纳斯达克中国金龙指数大涨5.40%，创4月4日以来新高。热门中概股普涨，跑赢大盘，其中小鹏 汽车、哔哩哔哩涨幅超7%，理想汽车、京东集团、拼多多涨超6%，阿里巴巴、蔚来、百度涨超5%。 截至5月12日收盘，美股三大股指大幅收涨，纳指涨4.35%，道指涨2.81%，标普500指数涨3.26%。美国 科技"七巨头"均收涨，其中亚马逊、脸书、特斯拉、苹果、英伟达涨幅均超过5%。 彭博社称，大型科技股的飙升，使纳斯达克100指数重回涨势。一个月前，该指数曾较之前高位累计暴 跌20%。 数据来源：Wind 欧洲三大股指全线收涨。德国DAX指数涨0.29%，法国CAC40指数涨1.37%，英国富时100指数涨 0.59%。 此外，当天彭博美元指数收盘上涨1%，是自特朗普赢得总统大选以来的最佳表现。投资者押注美联储 今年晚些时候将放缓降息步伐，美国国债收益率上升。 5月12日，金价大幅回调，国际油 ...

Group 1 - The US and China have made substantial progress in trade talks, significantly reducing bilateral tariffs, with the US canceling 91% of additional tariffs and China reciprocating with a similar reduction [2] - In April, US tariff revenue surged to $16 billion, marking a 130% increase year-on-year, the highest monthly tariff revenue in at least a decade [3] - China continues to enforce export controls on rare earth elements, raising concerns in the US about its ability to fill the supply gap, as over 90% of rare earth processing is done in China [7] Group 2 - In the first four months of the year, China's automobile production and sales both exceeded 10 million units for the first time, with new energy vehicle exports increasing by 52.6% year-on-year [8] - In March, domestic smartphone shipments in China grew by 6.5% year-on-year, with 5G smartphones accounting for 85.3% of total shipments [10] - The People's Bank of China and other authorities have issued opinions to enhance financial support for the Nansha area, aiming to strengthen its role in the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macau Greater Bay Area [11] Group 3 - Guangdong province has announced measures to stimulate market vitality and accelerate the construction of a modern industrial system, including 12 specific initiatives [12] - Fujian province plans to increase support for corporate mergers and acquisitions, aiming to establish a 10 billion yuan provincial merger fund [13] - Sichuan province has implemented an action plan for the brain-computer interface and human-computer interaction industry, targeting key breakthroughs by 2027 [14] Group 4 - Zhengzhou has released a plan to promote the high-quality development of the private economy, aiming for significant qualitative and quantitative improvements over three years [15] - The US House of Representatives has proposed a tax bill that aims to reduce taxes by over $4 trillion over the next decade, a key part of the Trump administration's agenda [16] - Apple is considering raising iPhone prices later this year, while President Trump emphasizes Apple's plans to invest $500 billion in the US [23]