期货研究报告 贵金属 姓名：龙奥明 从业资格证号：F3035632 投资咨询证号：Z0014648 电话：0571-87006873 邮箱：longaoming@bcqhgs.com 作者声明 宝城期货投资咨询部 本人具有中国期货业协会授 予的期货从业资格证书，期货投 资咨询资格证书，本人承诺以勤 勉的职业态度，独立、客观地出 具本报告。本报告清晰准确地反 映了本人的研究观点。本人不会 因本报告中的具体推荐意见或观 点而直接或间接接收到任何形式 的报酬。 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 贵金属 | 周报 · 2026 年 1 月 12 日 贵金属周报 专业研究·创造价值 金价强势运行 核心观点 上周金价震荡上行，沪金再度站上1000元关口，纽约金站上4500 美元关口。金价再度逼近 12 月高位，短期资金关注度再度上升。 元旦节后，金价重返1000关口。从大类资产走势来看，委内瑞拉 事件后，市场的恐慌情绪并未蔓延，美股道指再创新高，节后市场风 险偏好和流动性依旧较高。而周内宏观氛围有所冷却，前期涨幅较好 的资产普遍回落，这一定程度上使黄金的避险需求上升，给予金价支 撑。技术上，可持续关注 ...

Group 1 - Precious metals prices are experiencing a strong upward trend, with spot gold surpassing $4600 for the first time and accumulating a $280 increase in January. Spot silver reached $83.9 per ounce, exceeding previous highs and setting a new record, with a daily increase nearing 5% [1][2] - The rise in gold and silver prices is driven by heightened market risk aversion and increased capital inflow, indicating a potential continuation of the strong trend in the short term [1][2] - Platinum prices also surged on January 12, 2026, reaching between $2346.5 and $2397 per ounce, with daily gains of 3.13% to 4.37%, marking the highest levels since 2008 [1][5] Group 2 - Multiple factors are pushing gold and silver to new historical highs, including disappointing U.S. non-farm payroll data, which strengthens expectations for further interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, and escalating geopolitical tensions in Iran, increasing demand for safe-haven assets [2] - The Federal Reserve's policy remains a key variable, with expectations that interest rates may eventually decline as the labor market cools, although no rate cuts are anticipated this month [3][2] - The supply-demand dynamics for silver are tight, with industrial consumption and investor demand competing against a shortage of new mines, leading to expectations that silver prices could easily surpass $100 per ounce [3] Group 3 - Technical analysis indicates that gold is on an upward trajectory, with resistance levels identified between $4664 and $4766, while support levels are at $4408 and the 20-day moving average at $4392 [4] - Silver's price volatility is part of a long-term bullish trend supported by strong demand and supply shortages, although it currently relies on a single support line at $74.83 [4] - The platinum market is experiencing strong bullish momentum, driven by tight global supply and increased demand from the hydrogen industry, with a short-term target price of $2400 to $2420 per ounce [5]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - In the short - term, precious metal prices are expected to be strong, but the fluctuation may be intense due to factors such as low probability of Fed rate - cut in January and risk - control measures from exchanges. Long - term, the upward logic of precious metals remains unchanged, and the strategy is to buy on dips or sell slightly out - of - the - money put options [4]. - In the medium - to - long - term, the Fed's loose cycle, global geopolitical uncertainties, dollar credit risks, and the continued allocation demand from central banks, institutions, and residents will drive the long - term upward shift of the gold price center. Long - term investors are advised to buy on dips [4]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Price Data - On January 9, 2026, London gold spot was at $4473.61/oz, London silver spot at $77.24/oz, COMEX gold at $4483.10/oz, and COMEX silver at $77.00/oz. The price of AU2602 was 1006.48 yuan/g, and AG2602 was 18757 yuan/kg. The price of AU (T + D) was 1003.45 yuan/g, and AG (T + D) was 18764 yuan/kg. Compared with January 8, the price increases were 0.9%, 1.0%, 0.9%, 1.2%, 0.9%, 1.6%, 0.8%, and 1.3% respectively [3]. - The price difference and ratio data showed various changes. For example, the gold TD - SHFE active price difference was - 3.03 yuan/g on January 9, with a 23.7% change compared to January 8 [3]. 3.2 Position Data - As of January 9, 2026, the gold ETF - SPDR was 1064.56 tons, and the silver ETF - SLV was 16308.47495 tons. The COMEX gold non - commercial long - position was 274435 contracts, and the non - commercial short - position was 46803 contracts. The COMEX silver non - commercial long - position was 47384 contracts, and the non - commercial short - position was 18113 contracts. Compared with January 8, there were different percentage changes in these positions [3]. 3.3 Inventory Data - On January 9, 2026, SHFE gold inventory was 97653 kg, with no change from January 8. SHFE silver inventory was 620262 kg, a 2.73% decrease. COMEX gold inventory was 36311918 troy ounces, a 0.21% decrease, and COMEX silver inventory was 439740503 troy ounces, a 0.62% decrease [3]. 3.4 Market Review - On January 9, the main contract of Shanghai gold futures rose 0.68% to 1006.48 yuan/g, and the main contract of Shanghai silver futures fell 0.9% to 18731 yuan/kg [3]. 3.5 Factor Analysis - The lower - than - expected US non - farm payrolls in December, along with downward revisions of October and November data, indicate a cooling US labor market. The intensifying protests in Iran, Trump's radical remarks on Greenland, and strong safe - haven demand have pushed up precious metal prices. The short - term prices are expected to be strong, but the Fed's low probability of rate - cut in January and exchange risk - control measures may lead to high volatility. Long - term, the upward logic of precious metals remains [4].

摘要今日周一(1月12日)亚盘时段，国际黄金目前交投于1030元/克附近，截至发稿，国际黄金最新报 1027.22元/克，涨幅1.56%，最高上探至1031.66元/克，最低触及1011.08元/克。目前来看，国际黄金短 线偏向看涨走势。 从技术面来看，黄金正处于单边上涨阶段。前期经过修正后突破关键压力区域，尤其是上周五对4480- 85美元的成功突破，在非农数据公布后及时跟进多单，有效捕捉了这波上涨行情。今日早间冲高后出现 回踩，但回调幅度不宜过大，关键的大阳线多空分界点仍具备支撑作用。 美国总统特朗普于11日表示，伊朗方面已主动与美国官员取得联系，并提出进行谈判的建议，目前相关 会议正在安排之中。他同时警告称，鉴于伊朗国内死亡人数持续上升，伊朗政府似乎"正在开始"跨越美 方设定的红线，因此美国政府"可能需要在会议召开之前采取行动"。 特朗普的言论凸显出当前美伊关系的紧张与复杂性。一方面，伊朗主动寻求谈判，可能意在缓解国内外 压力，争取外交空间;另一方面，美国对伊朗国内局势的发展保持高度警觉，尤其是人员伤亡的增加， 被美方视作局势升级的信号。特朗普并未明确说明可能采取的具体行动，但强调在会议安排完成前，不 ...

Core Viewpoint - The price of spot gold has surged, breaking historical records and reaching $4568.66 per ounce, reflecting strong demand driven by geopolitical risks and investment trends [1][3][8]. Group 1: Gold Market Performance - Spot gold prices have consistently increased, surpassing key thresholds of $4400, $4500, and $4550, with a recent peak at $4600 per ounce [3]. - The World Gold Council reports that gold has performed exceptionally well in 2025, with expectations of a further increase of 15% to 30% in 2026 [8]. - The recent surge in gold prices is attributed to rising geopolitical risks related to Iran and Venezuela, which have rekindled market demand for gold as a safe-haven asset [6][8]. Group 2: Silver Market Performance - Spot silver has also seen significant gains, with prices approaching $84 per ounce and a reported increase of 4.28% to $83.33 per ounce [4]. Group 3: Domestic Jewelry Prices - Domestic gold jewelry brands have raised their prices in response to the rising gold prices, with brands like Chow Tai Fook and Lao Feng Xiang increasing their gold prices to 1426 RMB and 1428 RMB per gram, respectively [6][7]. Group 4: Future Outlook - Analysts from Saxo Bank suggest that the strong performance of gold, silver, and platinum reflects a combination of geopolitical hedging, financial flows, and structural investment themes [6]. - Citic Securities predicts a high certainty of gold price increases, driven by expectations of dual monetary and fiscal easing in the U.S. and persistent stagflation pressures [9]. - The outlook for gold prices remains optimistic, with projections indicating that international gold prices could exceed $5100 per ounce by the end of 2026 under neutral assumptions [9].

2026年开年首个重要贵金属行情里程碑诞生。亚洲市场1月12日上午10时许，国际现货黄金价格攀升幅 度超1%，盘中一度触及4563.14美元/安士，随后突破4600美元/安士整数关口，创下开年以来首次历史 新高。市场分析指出，地缘政治紧张局势升级、全球经济不确定性加剧，叠加市场对美国联邦储备局降 息预期升温，共同构成了此次金价飙升的核心驱动力。 从市场预期来看，投资者当前普遍预判美联储2026年至少将实施两次降息。业内普遍认为，低利率环境 通常会提升非收益性资产的吸引力，黄金作为典型的抗通胀、抗风险资产，在利率下行周期往往表现突 出。历史数据显示，2025年国际金价已走出"史诗级行情"，全年累计涨幅约七成，50次刷新历史纪录， 此次突破4600美元/安士，正是这一牛市行情的延续。 机构对后续金价走势普遍持乐观态度。汇丰银行明确指出，随着地缘政治风险持续扩散及全球债务问题 加剧，金价有望在2026年上半年攀升至5000美元/安士的新高度。世界黄金协会更预测，2026年金价整 体涨幅可能达15%至30%，突破5000美元/安士关口是大概率事件。摩根大通、高盛等机构也强调，全球 央行购金的结构性趋势将持续为金价提供 ...

1月12日早间，现货黄金首次站上4600美元大关，日内涨幅一度扩大至2%。COMEX黄金同样突破4600 美元大关创历史新高，日内涨超2%。 | < W | 伦敦金现 | | | | | Q | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | SPTAUUSDOZ.IDC | | | | | | | 4566.580 | 昨结 | 4508.980 | 总量 | | | 0 | | +57.600 | +1.28% 开盘 | 4517.365 | 现手 | | | 0 | | 最高价 | 4601.380 持 色 | 0 | 外 | 盤 | | 0 | | 最低价 | 4505.655 播 合 | 0 | 内 | 盟 | | 0 | | 分时 | 五日 日K 国K | | 月K | | 电器 | 0) | | 预加 | | | 均价:0.000 | | | | | 4601.380 | | | 2.05% | | 4567.210 | | | | | | | | 4566.580 | | | | | | | | 10:15 4567.070 | 0 | | | ...

Group 1 - COMEX gold has surpassed $4600 per ounce, reaching a new high, with gold ETF (518800) rising nearly 2% during trading [1][2] - Recent geopolitical events, such as the U.S. actions against Venezuela, have stimulated demand for safe-haven assets, supporting gold prices [2] - The long-term trend indicates a restructuring of monetary credit, with an increasing U.S. fiscal deficit leading to central bank gold purchases, which is expected to drive gold prices higher [2] Group 2 - The current inflow of funds into gold ETFs has exceeded 6 billion yuan over the past 60 days, indicating strong investor interest [1][2] - The decline in real interest rates following rate cuts is likely to attract more investments into gold ETFs, suggesting a potential recovery in the valuation of precious metals [2] - Investors are encouraged to consider direct investments in physical gold and tax-exempt gold fund ETFs (518800), as well as gold stock ETFs (517400) that cover the entire gold industry chain [2]

Core Viewpoint - The recent geopolitical tensions and dovish comments from the Federal Reserve have positively influenced the gold market, leading to a significant increase in gold prices and related ETFs [1] Market Performance - COMEX gold futures rose by 4.36% to close at $4,518.4 per ounce during the week of January 5 to January 9 [1] - The China Gold ETF (518850) increased by 3.01% over the same period [1] - The gold stock ETF (159562) saw a weekly rise of 6.77% [1] - The non-ferrous metals ETF (516650) experienced an 8.93% increase [1] Economic Data - The U.S. labor market showed mixed signals, with weaker non-farm payroll and ADP employment data, but an improvement in the unemployment rate [1] - The overall economic data has weakened the conditions for interest rate cuts, while manufacturing PMI and new housing starts fell short of expectations, raising concerns about the economic fundamentals [1] Geopolitical Factors - Ongoing geopolitical tensions, particularly related to U.S. military actions in Venezuela and potential strikes against Iran, have heightened market risk aversion [1] - The increase in geopolitical instability has led investors to diversify their asset reserves, boosting demand for gold as a safe-haven asset [1]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - No relevant information provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - For the gold 2602 contract, the short - term view is oscillatory, the medium - term view is strong, the intraday view is oscillatory and slightly bullish, and the reference view is to wait and see due to the cooling macro - atmosphere and the rising short - term hedging demand [1][3] - For the copper 2602 contract, the short - term view is oscillatory, the medium - term view is strong, the intraday view is oscillatory and slightly bearish, and the reference view is long - term bullish as the cooling macro - atmosphere makes short - term bulls more willing to close their positions [1][4] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Gold (AU) - Last week, the gold price oscillated upwards. Shanghai gold reached above 1000 yuan again, and New York gold reached above 4500 US dollars. The cooling macro - atmosphere increased the hedging demand for gold, providing support for the price. Technically, attention can be paid to the support at 1000 yuan for Shanghai gold and 4500 US dollars for New York gold [3] Copper (CU) - After the New Year's Day holiday, the copper price rose first and then fell, generally running above 100,000 yuan. The short - term macro - atmosphere dominated the copper price trend. Since Wednesday, the cooling macro - atmosphere made funds more willing to close positions, leading to the decline of the copper price from its high. At the industrial level, as the copper price rose above 100,000 yuan, the social inventory of domestic electrolytic copper increased significantly, reflecting the industry's resistance to high copper prices. In the short term, the divergence between bulls and bears intensified, and the copper price fluctuated at a high level. Attention can be paid to the support at 100,000 yuan [4]