热轧卷板产业链日报 2026/3/2 研究员: 蔡跃辉 期货从业资格号F0251444 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0013101 免责声明 本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任何保证，据此投资，责任 自负。本报告不构成个人投资建议，客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况。本报告版权仅为我公司所有，未经书面许可，任 何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版、复制和发布。如引用、刊发，需注明出处为瑞达期货股份有限公司研究院，且不得对本报告进行有悖原意的引 用、删节和修改。 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | HC 主力合约收盘价(元/吨) | 3,219 | +4↑ HC 主力合约持仓量(手) | 1459599 | -32410↓ | | | HC 合约前20名净持仓(手) | 57,027 | -6229↓ HC5-10合约价差(元/吨) | -19 | -1↓ | | | HC 上期所仓单日报(日， ...

Group 1: Investment Rating - The investment rating for the industry is not clearly stated in the report [1][3] Group 2: Core View - The core view of the report is that the steel prices are expected to fluctuate, and attention should be paid to the start - up of the demand side and the impact of macro - policies [1][3] Group 3: Key Points from the Report - Last week, the blast furnace iron - making capacity utilization rate of 247 steel mills was 80.22%, a month - on - month increase of 0.09 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 1.93 percentage points; the daily average hot metal output was 2.3328 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 27,900 tons and a year - on - year increase of 53,400 tons [2] - The average capacity utilization rate of 94 independent electric arc furnace steel mills nationwide was 7.35%, basically unchanged month - on - month and a year - on - year decrease of 41.56 percentage points; the average operating rate was 10.14%, a month - on - month increase of 0.29 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 53.2 percentage points [2] - Tangshan City launched a level - II emergency response for heavy pollution weather at 18:00 on March 1, 2026, and the lifting time will be notified separately [2] - At the end of last week, the ex - factory tax - included price of ordinary billet resources in Qian'an, Tangshan increased by RMB 10/ton, reaching RMB 2,920/ton [2] - Last week, the finished steel prices first declined and then rose, fluctuating at the bottom. The main contract of rebar approached the 3,000 level at the lowest, and the main contract of hot - rolled coil briefly fell below 3,200 [2] - Last week's fundamental changes were in line with expectations, and inventory accumulation was within the normal rhythm. Although the Spring Festival holiday has passed, downstream demand has not started yet. As the Two Sessions approach, the impact of macro - level factors on prices has increased [2]

Morning session notice 早盘提示 | 板块 | 品种 | 多（空） | 推荐理由 【行情复盘】 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 上周五焦煤主力合约 Jm2605 收于 1093.5 元/吨，环比日盘开盘上涨 0.32%；焦炭主力合 约 J2605 收于 1635.5 元/吨，环比日盘开盘下跌 0.52%。 | | | | | 【重要资讯】 | | | | | 1、当地时间 3 月 1 日，美国总统特朗普表示，对伊朗的军事行动可能持续四周左右。 | | | | | 英国、法国和德国领导人发表联合声明，表示可能对伊朗采取"必要的防御行动"。 | | | | | 2、上周，247 家钢厂高炉炼铁产能利用率 80.22%，环比增加 0.09 个百分点，同比增加 | | | | | 1.93 个百分点；日均铁水产量 233.28 万吨，环比增加 2.79 万吨，同比增加 5.34 万吨。 | | | | | 3、上周，五大钢材品种供应 796.77 万吨，周环比降幅 1%；五大钢材品种总库存 1846.11 | | | 焦煤、 | | 万吨，周环比增幅 7. ...

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - In March, coking coal will mainly fluctuate. The lower limit of the coking coal futures price is supported by improved inventory structure and policy expectations, while the upside is restricted by limited incremental demand from downstream after the Spring Festival [8]. - In March, the coke futures price will follow the cost - end of coking coal. The inventory accumulation pressure of coking plants weakens its price elasticity [11]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1后市研判 (Outlook) - Coking Coal: In February 2026, coking coal supply seasonally shrank due to the Spring Festival. After the holiday, supply will gradually recover, but the recovery is limited due to the late Spring Festival and the Two Sessions in March. Before the Spring Festival, upstream coking coal inventory decreased, and the inventory structure improved compared to the same period last year. In February, the coking coal inventory of independent coking enterprises and steel mills first increased and then decreased. After the holiday, the intensity of centralized restocking weakened, and subsequent restocking will be mainly for rigid demand. Due to the poor market outlook, a low - inventory strategy is expected to be maintained [8]. - Coke: The coke production of independent coking enterprises and steel mills remained stable. Independent coking enterprises have better willingness to start production than last year due to improved profits. Since February, hot metal production has slightly increased, and coke consumption is supported. During the Spring Festival, independent coking enterprises accumulated inventory, while steel mills consumed inventory. Coke enterprises are still on the verge of profit and loss, and steel mills face profitability pressure. The game between steel and coke enterprises intensifies, and the pricing weight of the cost - end increases [11]. 3.2焦煤基本面 (Coking Coal Fundamentals) - Supply: As of the week of February 30, the coking coal production ratio of 523 sample mines was 68.24%, up 19.35% from the Spring Festival, but 15.55% lower than the same period last year. The daily average output of clean coal was 649,000 tons, an increase of 190,200 tons from the Spring Festival but a decrease of 83,100 tons from the same period last year. The production ratio of 314 sample coal washing plants was 22.73%, 9.55% lower than before the festival, and the daily average output of clean coal was 169,100 tons, a decrease of 74,300 tons from before the festival. As of the weekly statistics on February 23, the customs clearance volume at Ganqimaodu was 279,315 tons, and the customs clearance of Mongolian coal also decreased significantly during the Chinese Spring Festival. Overall, coking coal supply seasonally shrank in February 2026, and the supply recovery after the holiday is limited [14]. - Inventory: As of February 27, the coking coal inventory of 523 sample mines was 2.5766 million tons, 1.3192 million tons less than the same period last year; the inventory of 314 sample coal washing plants was 2.9893 million tons, 72,000 tons less than the same period last year; the port inventory was 2.7197 million tons, 1.4413 million tons less than the same period last year. The coking coal inventory of all - sample independent coking enterprises was 9.9886 million tons, 1.9978 million tons more than the same period last year, and the available inventory days were 11.68 days, 2.27 days more than last year; the coking coal inventory of 247 steel enterprises was 7.9246 million tons, 236,800 tons more than the same period last year, and the available inventory days were 12.65 days, 0.38 days more than the same period last year. The coking coal inventory of independent coking enterprises and steel mills first increased and then decreased in February. After the holiday, the intensity of centralized restocking weakened, and subsequent restocking will be mainly for rigid demand. Due to the poor market outlook, a low - inventory strategy is expected to be maintained [17][18]. 3.3焦炭基本面 (Coke Fundamentals) - Production: As of the week of February 27, the capacity utilization rate of independent coking enterprises was 74.36%, 2.75% higher than the same period last year, and the daily average output of metallurgical coke was 642,900 tons, 41,000 tons more than the same period last year; the capacity utilization rate of 247 steel enterprises was 86.09%, 0.97% lower than the same period last year, and the daily average output of coke was 471,000 tons, 1,000 tons more than the same period last year. The coke production of independent coking enterprises and steel mills remained stable during the Spring Festival, and independent coking enterprises have better willingness to start production than last year due to improved profits [21]. - Demand: As of the week of February 27, the daily average hot metal output of 247 steel enterprises was 2.3328 million tons, 534,000 tons more than the same period last year; the domestic sample coke consumption was 1.0498 million tons, 241,000 tons more than the same period last year. Since February, hot metal production has slightly increased, and coke consumption is supported [23]. - Inventory: As of February 27, the inventory of independent coking enterprises was 1.0782 million tons, 554,400 tons less than the same period last year but 250,200 tons more than before the festival; the coke inventory of steel mills was 6.7511 million tons, 58,400 tons less than the same period last year and 228,000 tons less than before the festival, and the available inventory days were 12.41 days, 0.99 days less than the same period last year and 0.29 days less than before the festival; the port inventory was 1.971 million tons, 69,500 tons more than the same period last year. During the Spring Festival, independent coking enterprises accumulated inventory due to poor output digestion, while steel mills consumed inventory [26]. - Profit: Since February, the coke spot market has not seen price increases or decreases, and the price has mainly remained stable. As of the week of February 27, the average profit per ton of coke for independent coking enterprises was - 7 yuan/ton, significantly improved compared to January and a reduction of losses by 64 yuan/ton compared to the same period last year. The profitability rate of 247 steel enterprises was 39.83%, remaining relatively stable but 10.39% lower than the same period last year. Coke enterprises are still on the verge of profit and loss, and steel mills face profitability pressure. The game between steel and coke enterprises intensifies, and the pricing weight of the cost - end increases [27].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings There is no information provided in the report regarding industry investment ratings. 2. Core Views of the Report - **Macro Strategy (Foreign Exchange Futures - US Dollar Index)**: The Chicago Fed President suggests that if inflation falls, the Fed may cut interest rates multiple times. The Iranian Foreign Minister claims progress in US - Iran negotiations, leading to a decline in market risk appetite and a lower US Dollar Index. The dollar index is expected to weaken in the short - term [1][12][13]. - **Macro Strategy (Stock Index Futures)**: A - shares are in a volatile consolidation phase with increasing trading volume. The spring rally is likely not over. Concerns about the overseas AI bubble are deepening, increasing short - term correction pressure on technology stocks, but they are still optimistic in the medium - term [2][16]. - **Macro Strategy (Treasury Bond Futures)**: The central bank conducted 320.5 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations. Stabilizing real estate policies are temporary disturbances. Before other negative factors emerge, the bond market is unlikely to fall continuously. However, potential risks such as the "Two Sessions" and supply pressure in March still exist [3][18]. - **Black Metal (Rebar/Hot - Rolled Coil)**: Brazil imposed anti - dumping duties on Chinese galvanized and aluminized zinc - coated steel coils. The inventory of the five major steel products continued to increase significantly, and the fundamental pressure is prominent. The rebound in steel prices due to short - term real estate policies is expected to be limited [4][23]. - **Agricultural Products (Sugar)**: Brazil exported 1.3138 million tons of sugar and molasses in the first two weeks of February. India's sugar production estimate for this season was significantly reduced by 1.65 million tons to 29.3 million tons, which will support domestic prices, limit exports, and reduce the global sugar supply surplus [5][33]. - **Non - ferrous Metals (Lithium Carbonate)**: Finland launched the first commercial spodumene mine in Europe. In the short - term, a bullish view is maintained, but the price may correct when supply increases in the medium - term [6][45]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Financial News and Comments 3.1.1 Macro Strategy (Foreign Exchange Futures - US Dollar Index) - Chicago Fed President Goolsbee reiterates that if there is more evidence of inflation moving towards the Fed's 2% target, interest rates could be further cut in 2026. Fed Vice - Chair for Supervision Bowman says regulators will release a revised bank capital reform proposal by the end of March [11]. - The Iranian Foreign Minister claims progress in US - Iran negotiations, causing a decline in market risk appetite and a lower US Dollar Index. The dollar index is expected to weaken in the short - term [12][13]. 3.1.2 Macro Strategy (Stock Index Futures) - A - shares had a narrow - range consolidation. The Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.01% to 4146.63 points, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 0.19%, and the ChiNext Index fell 0.29%. The trading volume increased to 2.56 trillion yuan. AI - related stocks were affected by NVIDIA's earnings, and some sectors had significant movements [14]. - The spring rally is likely not over due to increasing trading volume. Concerns about the overseas AI bubble may lead to short - term corrections in technology stocks, but they are still promising in the medium - term. It is recommended to hold stock index long positions evenly [16]. 3.1.3 Macro Strategy (Treasury Bond Futures) - The central bank conducted 320.5 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations on February 26, with a net withdrawal of 7.95 billion yuan [17]. - Stabilizing real estate policies are temporary disturbances. The bond market is unlikely to fall continuously in the short - term, but potential risks such as the "Two Sessions" and supply pressure in March exist. The bond market is expected to be volatile in the short - term and face adjustment risks in the long - term [18][19]. 3.2 Commodity News and Comments 3.2.1 Black Metal (Rebar/Hot - Rolled Coil) - Brazil imposed a 5 - year anti - dumping duty of 284.98 - 709.63 US dollars per ton on Chinese galvanized and aluminized zinc - coated steel coils. South Korea made a final anti - dumping ruling on hot - rolled coils from China and Japan, with some Chinese enterprises accepting price commitments [20][21]. - The inventory of the five major steel products increased by 1.3427 million tons to 18.4611 million tons in the week ending February 26. The inventory of coils exceeded last year's peak. The market is expected to be in a weak and volatile pattern, and short - term steel price rebounds are limited [23][24]. 3.2.2 Black Metal (Coking Coal/Coke) - The coking coal price in the Changzhi market was weakly stable. After the Spring Festival, coal supply increased as mines resumed production, but demand remained weak. The market is expected to remain volatile in the short - term [25][26]. 3.2.3 Agricultural Products (Soybean Meal) - The US weekly soybean export sales net increased by 407,100 tons in the week ending February 19, down 49% from the previous week and 30% from the four - week average, and was at the lower end of the market forecast range [27]. - The US government's biofuel policy may benefit soybean crushing, but actual export data is disappointing. Domestically, the price of imported soybeans has risen, but soybean meal supply is sufficient. It is recommended to maintain the view of price volatility and pay attention to China's soybean procurement, customs policies, and reserve policies [29]. 3.2.4 Agricultural Products (Sugar) - Brazil exported 1.3138 million tons of sugar and molasses in the first two weeks of February, with a daily average export volume 44% higher than that in February last year. The sugar production estimate in India for this season was reduced by 1.65 million tons to 29.3 million tons [30][32]. - The reduction in Indian sugar production will support domestic prices, limit exports, and reduce the global sugar supply surplus. The Brazilian sugar production in the new season will have a greater impact on the international sugar market. The Zhengzhou sugar futures are expected to be in a low - level volatile pattern [33][34]. 3.2.5 Agricultural Products (Soybean Oil/Rapeseed Oil/Palm Oil) - From February 1 - 25, Malaysia's palm oil production decreased by 16.25% month - on - month [35]. - The oil market showed a differentiated trend. Soybean oil was affected by the US biofuel policy and trended strongly. The market is pessimistic about Malaysia's palm oil exports in February. It is expected that the palm oil price will continue to test the bottom, and attention should be paid to the final US biofuel policy in March [36][37]. 3.2.6 Agricultural Products (Corn) - As of February 26, the average inventory of feed enterprises across the country was 31.29 days, a decrease of 0.96 days from the previous week, a month - on - month decline of 2.98%, and a year - on - year decline of 2.43% [38]. - The corn futures price was volatile. The slowdown in grain sales during the Spring Festival, low port inventory, and downstream replenishment demand support the price. However, the price increase may be limited by downstream acceptance and potential policy grain releases. The price is expected to be volatile and slightly upward, but the 05 contract may face a technical correction [38]. 3.2.7 Agricultural Products (Pigs) - Tangrenshen expects to gradually reduce the proportion of外购仔猪 (purchased piglets) in 2026 and strive to reduce the full - cost of fattening pigs to about 12.6 yuan per kilogram. Wens Co., Ltd. plans to repurchase shares worth 800 million - 1.2 billion yuan [39][41]. - The current slaughter volume is low, and the supply pressure remains. The short - term spot price is expected to be weak. The near - month futures contracts face basis - repair pressure, while the far - month contracts may rebound after over - falling. It is recommended to wait for opportunities to go long on the far - month contracts after the negative factors are exhausted [41][42]. 3.2.8 Non - ferrous Metals (Lithium Carbonate) - Finland launched the first commercial spodumene mine in Europe, with a lithium concentrate production capacity equivalent to about 15,000 tons of lithium hydroxide. Core Lithium reached a fixed - price agreement with Glencore to sell about 5,100 dry tons of spodumene concentrate [43][44]. - In the short - term, a bullish view on lithium carbonate is maintained, but the price may correct when supply increases in the medium - term [45]. 3.2.9 Non - ferrous Metals (Lead) - On February 25, the LME 0 - 3 lead was at a discount of 46.37 US dollars per ton, and the social inventory of lead ingots in five places increased by 3,100 tons [46]. - The Shanghai lead futures were in a low - level volatile pattern. The lead market is in a state of weak supply and demand, and the price is supported by the cost of recycled smelters. It is recommended to wait and see in the short - term and consider long positions in the medium - term [46][47]. 3.2.10 Non - ferrous Metals (Zinc) - On February 25, the LME 0 - 3 zinc was at a discount of 29.64 US dollars per ton. As of February 26, the social inventory of zinc ingots in seven places increased by 10,200 tons [48][49]. - The zinc price was volatile. The LME inventory decreased, and the domestic social inventory increased. The downstream start - up was slow. It is recommended to adopt a bullish approach and continue to hold call options, while being vigilant about tariff risks [49]. 3.2.11 Non - ferrous Metals (Copper) - Mexico's mining safety risk has increased significantly, and Japan's copper and copper alloy imports in January increased by 13.51% year - on - year. The core leadership of Congo (Kinshasa)'s state - owned mining company has been replaced [50][51][52]. - The copper price is affected by the Middle East geopolitical situation and domestic policies. The domestic and overseas inventories are increasing, which restricts the price increase. It is recommended to pay attention to opportunities to go long on dips [52][53]. 3.2.12 Non - ferrous Metals (Tin) - On February 25, the LME 0 - 3 tin was at a premium of 20 US dollars per ton. The Shanghai Futures Exchange's tin futures warehouse receipts decreased by 182 tons on February 26 [54]. - The supply of tin ore may gradually ease in the short - term but is expected to be restricted in the long - term. The price is expected to be in a strong and wide - range volatile pattern, and attention should be paid to the recovery of tin ore imports from Myanmar and post - holiday consumption [54][55]. 3.2.13 Energy Chemical (Liquefied Petroleum Gas) - As of February 20, the US propane/propylene output was about 2,862 thousand barrels per day, the inventory was 725 million barrels, a decrease of 17 million barrels from the previous week, and the consumption decreased from 1,472 thousand barrels per day to 1,343 thousand barrels per day [56]. - The LPG price is expected to be strong. The domestic spot market is tepid, and the inventory is higher than last year, with a weaker destocking slope [56][57]. 3.2.14 Energy Chemical (Carbon Emissions) - On February 26, the closing price of CEA in the national carbon emissions trading market was 81 yuan per ton, the same as the previous day. The trading volume of the listing agreement was 30,000 tons, and the trading volume of the bulk agreement was 400,000 tons [58]. - The carbon market is in a policy window period. The trading price fluctuates greatly, but the price center is stable. The trading activity has cooled down, and it is recommended that enterprises with demand consider buying on dips [58][59]. 3.2.15 Shipping Index (Container Freight Rate) - An accident in the Port of Livorno, Italy, led to a 24 - hour port - wide strike, paralyzing container operations and causing a backlog of goods [60]. - The container freight rate is expected to decline in March. It is recommended to pay attention to opportunities to short the 04 contract on rallies [61][62].

Group 1: Report's Industry Investment Ratings - The outlook for stock index futures is "shockingly strong" [6] - The outlook for stock index options is "shock" [6] - The outlook for treasury bond futures is "shock" [7] Group 2: Report's Core Views - For stock index futures, the introduction of real - estate policies has scattered trading themes. The Shanghai Composite Index rose and then fell on Wednesday, with small and medium - cap stocks outperforming. After the Shanghai property market policy was released, there was sector rotation. With scattered themes, the upside may be limited, but with improved A - share trading volume after the holiday, it's still recommended to hold IM long - positions before the Two Sessions [1][6] - Regarding stock index options, short - term volatility expectations have decreased, and the focus can shift to medium - term moderate growth. The trading logic is moving from hedging and speculation to medium - term layout. The put - call ratio of small and medium - cap stocks provides some support, and a covered - call strategy can be the main medium - term approach [2][6] - For treasury bond futures, policies and risk preferences have disturbed the bond market, causing it to decline. The central bank's operations have loosened the money - market, but the bond market sentiment was weak due to the rise in the stock market and the new real - estate policy. In the short - term, the bond market is expected to continue to fluctuate [3][7] Group 3: Summaries Based on Related Catalogs 1. Stock Index Futures - **Market Situation**: The Shanghai Composite Index rose and fell on Wednesday, with small and medium - cap stocks performing better. After the Shanghai property market policy, sector rotation occurred, with cyclical sectors taking profits and real - estate related sectors being relatively resilient [1][6] - **Investment Strategy**: Hold IM long - positions as post - holiday A - share trading volume has recovered, and the policy call option before the Two Sessions is still valid [1][6] 2. Stock Index Options - **Market Situation**: The underlying market continued to rise, with small and medium - cap related varieties rising more. Option trading volume increased slightly, and implied volatility decreased, indicating a shift from short - term trading to medium - term layout [2][6] - **Investment Strategy**: Adopt a covered - call strategy as short - term volatility expectations decline and the market is suitable for medium - to long - term bullish strategies [2][6] 3. Treasury Bond Futures - **Market Situation**: Treasury bond futures' main contracts fell. The central bank's operations loosened the money - market, but the bond market was affected by the rise in the stock market and the new real - estate policy, leading to an increase in interest rates [3][7] - **Investment Strategy**: Be cautious in the bond market. For hedging, focus on short - hedging at low basis levels; for basis strategies, look for positive - arbitrage opportunities in ultra - long - term bonds; for curve strategies, focus on the narrowing of the 30Y - 10Y spread; and pay attention to the downward momentum of inter - delivery spreads and the change in the delivery window due to the Spring Festival [7]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - The bond ETF market has a positive sentiment, with the net inflow amount turning positive. After the seasonal capital outflows at the beginning of the year, the scale of bond ETFs is expected to expand again with the return of institutional spring allocation demand and key policies set by the "Two Sessions". Different types of bond ETFs have different development prospects [2][6]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Various Bond ETF Fund Inflows - Market sentiment is positive, and the net inflow of bond ETFs has turned positive. Last week, the net inflows of interest - rate bond ETFs, credit - bond ETFs, and convertible - bond ETFs were +5.098 billion yuan, +14.212 billion yuan, and +0.587 billion yuan respectively, with a total net inflow of 19.896 billion yuan in the bond ETF market. Looking ahead, the scale of bond ETFs is expected to expand [2][5]. - Short - term financing ETFs, treasury - bond ETFs, and urban investment bond ETFs led in net inflows last week, while the net inflows of science and technology innovation bond ETFs and benchmark market - making credit - bond ETFs were still negative but significantly reduced [6]. 3.2 Share and Net Value Trends of Various Bond ETFs and Representative Products - Before the holiday, funds had a high demand for flexibility, and the share of short - term financing ETFs increased. As of February 13, 2026, the shares of various bond ETFs changed to varying degrees, with a total change of +3.1% compared to the previous week and +3.3% compared to the end of last month [12][19]. - The net values of major bond ETFs generally increased. Taking the largest - scale products in each type of bond ETF as representatives, their net values increased compared to the previous week and the end of last month [22]. 3.3 Share and Net Value Trends of Each Benchmark Market - Making Credit - Bond ETF - There was no significant change in the shares. Among the 8 existing products, the shares of 7 remained unchanged, and one decreased by 3.97% compared to the previous week [26]. - The net values increased significantly. The net values of the 8 credit - bond ETFs increased by 0.10% - 0.17% compared to the previous week and 0.13% - 0.18% compared to the end of last month [28]. 3.4 Share and Net Value Trends of Each Science and Technology Innovation Bond ETF - The scale of share outflows significantly shrank. The net inflow of shares last week was -3.78 million shares, a -0.14% change compared to the previous week. Some products had net outflows, while others had net inflows [30]. - The net values continued to rise. The median net values of the first - batch and second - batch science and technology innovation bond ETFs increased by 0.13% compared to the previous week, and the median net values of products tracking different indexes also increased [33]. 3.5 Market Performance of Single Bond ETFs Last Week - The net values generally increased, with convertible - bond ETFs leading the rise. The convertible - bond ETF and the Shanghai - Stock - Exchange convertible - bond ETF led in net - value increases, and some products had positive premium rates [35]. - In terms of scale changes, short - term financing ETFs, urban investment bond ETFs, and treasury - and - policy - financial - bond ETFs had the highest net inflows [35]. 3.6 Marginal Changes in the PCF Lists of Benchmark Market - Making Credit - Bond and Science and Technology Innovation Bond ETFs - For benchmark market - making credit - bond ETFs, the estimated modified duration of Haifutong Credit - Bond ETF changed relatively significantly (-0.12 years). Some bonds were repeatedly included or excluded from the PCF list, and Huaxia Credit - Bond ETF changed the cash - substitution flag to "must" on some trading days [38][39]. - For science and technology innovation bond ETFs, the estimated modified durations of Tianhong and Guangfa Science and Technology Innovation Bond ETFs changed relatively significantly (+0.09 years and +0.07 years respectively). Some bonds were repeatedly included or excluded from the PCF list, and China Merchants Science and Technology Innovation Bond ETF changed the cash - substitution flag to "must" on some trading days [40][44].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The mid - term outlook for the black building materials industry is "oscillation" [6] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Steel: Before the festival, demand weakens, the fundamentals lack highlights, and the futures price is under pressure to adjust downward, but the downward space is limited due to pre - two sessions macro disturbances [7] - Iron ore: The inventory pressure increases, the supply side has weather disturbance expectations, the post - festival demand expectation is average, and the futures price is under pressure to oscillate [8] - Scrap steel: Supply and daily consumption are expected to decline seasonally. As restocking nears the end, the fundamentals will weaken marginally, and the spot price is expected to follow the finished products [9] - Coke: Supply growth is limited, downstream steel mills have复产 expectations, the supply - demand structure is healthy, the spot price is expected to remain stable, and the futures price will follow coking coal [10] - Coking coal: Before and after the Spring Festival, supply and demand are expected to decline. After the festival, the resumption of production is restricted, the fundamentals may remain healthy, the spot price is expected to oscillate, and the futures price will oscillate widely [11] - Glass: Supply has disturbance expectations, mid - and downstream inventories are moderately high, supply exceeds demand, and high inventories will suppress prices if there is no more cold repair by the end of the year [12] - Soda ash: The overall supply exceeds demand. In the short term, it is expected to oscillate, and in the long term, the supply - surplus pattern will intensify, and the price center will decline [12] - Manganese silicon: The market has strong supply and weak demand, the upstream de - stocking pressure increases, and the futures price is expected to oscillate around the cost [14] - Ferrosilicon: The market has weak supply and demand, the fundamentals have limited contradictions, the trading activity is low around the Spring Festival, and the futures price is expected to run at a low level around the cost [16] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Iron Element - Iron ore: The inventory pressure continues to increase, the supply side has weather disturbance expectations, the current market's post - festival demand expectation is average, the futures price is under pressure, but after the rapid decline, the pressure is released. Attention should be paid to market sentiment changes. The global shipping volume has declined slightly this period, mainly due to the impact of tropical cyclones in Australia. If there are no other sudden disturbances, the supply side will maintain a relatively loose pattern. The demand side has stable rigid demand, and the support for prices may weaken as restocking progresses [2][7][8] - Scrap steel: Supply and daily consumption are expected to decline seasonally. As restocking nears the end, the overall fundamentals will weaken marginally, and the spot price is expected to follow the finished products. The average arrival volume this week has decreased significantly, and the daily consumption has also decreased. The inventory of steel enterprises has increased, and the total inventory available days are close to the same period last year [2][9] 3.2 Carbon Element - Coke: Supply growth is limited, downstream steel mills have复产 expectations, the supply - demand structure will remain healthy, the spot price is expected to remain stable, and the futures price will follow coking coal. After the first round of price increases, the coking profit has improved significantly, and the overall coke supply has increased. The demand side has a strong rigid demand for coke, and the inventory of steel mills has increased, but the available days are lower than the same period [2][10] - Coking coal: Before the Spring Festival, supply and demand are expected to decline. After the festival, the resumption of production of coal mines is still restricted, the fundamentals may remain healthy, the spot price is expected to oscillate, and the futures price will oscillate widely. As the Spring Festival approaches, the supply of domestic coal mines will decline, and the import of Mongolian coal is still at a high level. The inventory of coking coal is transferring from upstream mines to downstream [2][11] 3.3 Alloys - Manganese silicon: The market has strong supply and weak demand, the upstream de - stocking pressure increases, and the futures price is expected to oscillate around the cost. The upstream inventory is high, the cost price is firm, the demand side's support for prices weakens, and the market inventory may further accumulate [3][14] - Ferrosilicon: The market has weak supply and demand, the fundamentals have limited contradictions, the trading activity is low around the Spring Festival, and the futures price is expected to run at a low level around the cost. The cost side has strengthened support, the demand side's support for prices weakens, and the daily production level of ferrosilicon continues to be low [3][16] 3.4 Glass and Soda Ash - Glass: Supply has disturbance expectations, mid - and downstream inventories are moderately high, supply exceeds demand, and high inventories will suppress prices if there is no more cold repair by the end of the year. The short - term price is expected to oscillate. The supply side is difficult to have a large number of cold repairs in the short term, and the demand side is weak, and the mid - level inventory suppresses the futures price [3][12] - Soda ash: The overall supply exceeds demand. In the short term, it is expected to oscillate, and in the long term, the supply - surplus pattern will intensify, and the price center will decline. The supply side's daily output has increased, the demand side's demand for heavy soda ash is weakening, and the overall downstream demand is showing a downward trend [3][12]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The mid - term outlook for the black building materials industry is "oscillation" [6] Core Viewpoints - The demand for steel before the festival has declined, the fundamentals lack highlights, and the futures market is weak. The resumption of production in steel mills is slow, but there are disturbances in the iron ore shipping end, and the futures market shows signs of stabilization. As the winter storage is coming to an end, the support for coking coal and coke replenishment is gradually weakening, and the support for the futures market is limited. There are disturbances in the glass supply end, but the supply - demand surplus suppresses the futures price. In the short term, the futures market has downward adjustment pressure, but there are still macro disturbances before the Two Sessions, and the downside space is limited [1][2][3] Summary by Directory 1. Iron Element - The inventory pressure continues to increase, and there are still expectations of weather disturbances on the supply side. The current market has average expectations for post - festival demand, and the futures market is under pressure. However, important meetings will be held after the festival, and there are still macro expectations. After the rapid decline of the futures market, the pressure has been released. Pay attention to market sentiment changes. The supply and daily consumption of scrap steel are expected to decline seasonally. As the replenishment is approaching the end, the overall fundamentals will weaken marginally, and the spot price is expected to follow the finished products [2] 2. Carbon Element - The subsequent growth space of coke supply is limited, while the expectation of downstream steel mill复产 still exists. The coke supply - demand structure will remain healthy, but the bullish driving force of the fundamentals is also limited. The spot is expected to remain stable, and the futures market is expected to follow the cost - end coking coal. Before the Spring Festival, the supply and demand of coking coal are expected to decline. After the Spring Festival, the resumption of production in coal mines is still restricted, and the fundamentals of coking coal may continue to be healthy. The spot is expected to oscillate [2] 3. Alloys - In the manganese - silicon market, supply is stronger than demand, and the pressure on upstream inventory reduction is increasing. When the futures price rises to a high level, it will face selling - hedging pressure. It is expected that the futures price of the main manganese - silicon contract will oscillate around the cost. In the silicon - iron market, both supply and demand are weak, and the fundamental contradictions are limited. However, the trading activity in the market around the Spring Festival is low, and the upward driving force of the futures market is insufficient. It is expected that the silicon - iron futures price will run at a low level around the cost [3] 4. Glass and Soda Ash - There are still expectations of disturbances in the glass supply, but the inventory of the middle and downstream is moderately high. From the perspective of fundamentals, the current supply - demand is still in surplus. If there is no more cold repair before the end of the year, the high inventory will always suppress the price. The overall supply - demand of soda ash is still in surplus. It is expected to oscillate in the short term. In the long run, the supply - surplus pattern will further intensify, and the price center will still decline, promoting capacity reduction [3] 5. Individual Commodity Analysis Steel - Before the festival, the demand weakens, and the futures market is weak. The spot market trading is weak. The profitability of steel mills remains stable, the resumption of production in steel mills is slow, the molten iron output increases slightly, the electric furnaces begin to shut down one after another, and the output of five major steel products decreases slightly. The demand for building materials weakens seasonally, and the manufacturing demand is also in the off - season. The pressure of steel inventory accumulation is emerging, and the fundamentals are gradually accumulating contradictions. In the short term, the futures market has downward adjustment pressure, but there are still macro disturbances before the Two Sessions, and the downside space is limited [7] Iron Ore - The fundamentals are weakening, and the price is under pressure to oscillate. The global shipping volume has decreased slightly. If there are no other sudden disturbances, the supply side is expected to remain relatively loose. The demand for molten iron is still stable, and steel mills are accelerating the replenishment before the Spring Festival. As the replenishment progresses, the support for the price may gradually weaken. The inventory pressure is still accumulating, and the market sentiment has weakened recently. The futures market is under pressure. After the festival, the Two Sessions will be held, so pay attention to market sentiment changes [7][8] Scrap Steel - The electric furnaces are gradually shutting down, and the arrival of scrap steel at steel mills has decreased. The supply and daily consumption of scrap steel are expected to decline seasonally. As the replenishment is approaching the end, the overall fundamentals will weaken marginally, and the spot price is expected to follow the finished products [9] Coke - Before the festival, the sentiment is average, and the futures market is under pressure to operate. The supply of coke has increased month - on - month, the demand is supported by rigid demand, and the inventory in steel mills has increased. The supply - demand structure of coke is relatively healthy. After the spot price increase is implemented, it remains stable for the time being, and the futures market still follows the cost - end coking coal [10] Coking Coal - More coal mines are on holiday, and the futures and spot are under pressure to oscillate. Before the Spring Festival, the supply and demand of coking coal are expected to decline. After the Spring Festival, the resumption of production in coal mines is still restricted, and the fundamentals of coking coal may continue to be healthy. The spot is expected to oscillate, and the futures market is expected to oscillate widely under the influence of capital sentiment [11] Glass - Before the festival, the contradictions are limited, and the price oscillates. There are expectations of disturbances in the supply, but the inventory of the middle and downstream is moderately high. The current supply - demand is still in surplus. If there is no more cold repair before the end of the year, the high inventory will always suppress the price [12] Soda Ash - The supply remains at a high level, and the price oscillates. The supply - demand fundamentals have no obvious changes, and the industry is still in the stage of clearing at the bottom of the cycle. The downstream demand has a downward trend, and the dynamic surplus expectation is further intensified. The spot price may return to the price - cut channel, and it is expected to oscillate in the short term. In the long run, the supply - surplus pattern will further intensify, and the price center will still decline, promoting capacity reduction [12][15] Manganese - Silicon - The inventory tends to increase, and there is still pressure above. The upstream inventory of manganese - silicon is high, but the cost price is firm, which makes it difficult for the futures price to continue to fall. The market trading is cold before the holiday, and the demand support for the price is weakening. The supply may increase after the festival, and the market inventory may further accumulate. It is expected that the futures price of the main manganese - silicon contract will oscillate around the cost [16] Silicon - Iron - The trading atmosphere has become lighter, and the cost still provides support. The black - plate is under pressure in the off - season, and the market trading is rare before the holiday. The cost support of silicon - iron has become stronger. The demand support for the price is weakening, the production of silicon - iron remains at a low level, and the trading activity is low around the Spring Festival. It is expected that the silicon - iron futures price will run at a low level around the cost [18] 6. Index Information - On February 10, 2026, the comprehensive index of CITIC Futures commodities is 2383.17, up 0.35%; the commodity 20 index is 2722.24, up 0.43%; the industrial products index is 2281.60, up 0.12%. The steel industry chain index on February 10, 2026, is 1928.47, with a daily decline of 0.38%, a decline of 2.68% in the past 5 days, a decline of 4.76% in the past month, and a decline of 2.40% since the beginning of the year. The PPI commodity index is 1404.94, up 0.04% [104][105]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The mid - term outlook for the black building materials industry is "oscillation" [6] 2. Core View of the Report - In the off - season, the inventory accumulation pressure on the steel end is gradually emerging, the fundamentals lack highlights, and the futures market continues to be weak. The resumption of production by steel mills is slow, but there are disturbances in the iron ore shipping end, and the futures market shows signs of stabilization. As the winter storage nears its end, the support for coking coal and coke replenishment gradually weakens, and the futures market performs weakly. There are disturbances in the glass supply end, but the oversupply of glass and soda ash suppresses the futures price. Overall, as the winter storage of furnace materials nears its end, the off - season fundamentals are lackluster. The futures market has short - term downward adjustment pressure, but there are still macro disturbances before the Two Sessions, and the downward space of the futures market is limited [1][2][3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Iron Element - **Core Logic**: The inventory pressure continues to increase, and there are still expectations of weather disturbances on the supply side. The current market has average expectations for post - holiday demand, and the futures market is under pressure. However, important meetings will be held after the Spring Festival, and there are still macro expectations. After the rapid decline of the futures market, the pressure is released. The supply and daily consumption of scrap steel are expected to decline seasonally. As the replenishment nears its end, the overall fundamentals will weaken marginally [2] - **Outlook**: The supply and daily consumption are expected to decline seasonally. As the replenishment nears its end, the overall fundamentals will weaken marginally, and the spot price is expected to follow the finished products [2][9] 3.2 Carbon Element - **Coke** - **Core Logic**: The growth space of coke supply is limited in the future, while the expectation of downstream steel mill复产 still exists. The coke supply - demand structure will remain healthy, but the bullish driving force of the fundamentals is also limited. The spot price is expected to remain stable for the time being, and the futures market is expected to follow the coking coal on the cost side [2][11] - **Outlook**: The coke supply growth space is limited, and the downstream steel mill复产 expectation still exists. The coke supply - demand structure will remain healthy, but the bullish driving force of the fundamentals is limited. The spot price is expected to remain stable, and the futures market is expected to follow the coking coal on the cost side [2][11] - **Coking Coal** - **Core Logic**: Before the Spring Festival, the supply and demand of coking coal are expected to decline. After the Spring Festival, the resumption of production of coal mines is still restricted. The fundamentals of coking coal may remain healthy. The spot price is expected to oscillate, and the futures market is expected to oscillate widely under the influence of capital sentiment [12] - **Outlook**: Before the Spring Festival, the supply and demand of coking coal are expected to decline. After the Spring Festival, the resumption of production of coal mines is still restricted. The fundamentals of coking coal may remain healthy. The spot price is expected to oscillate, and the futures market is expected to oscillate widely under the influence of capital sentiment [12] 3.3 Alloys - **Manganese Silicon** - **Core Logic**: The market continues to be in a state of loose supply and demand, and the pressure on upstream inventory reduction is increasing. When the futures market rises to a high level, it will face selling hedging pressure. The cost of manganese silicon has little adjustment recently, the demand support for the price weakens, and the market inventory level may further increase [15] - **Outlook**: The market continues to be in a state of loose supply and demand, the upstream inventory reduction pressure is increasing. When the futures market rises to a high level, it will face selling hedging pressure. It is expected that the futures price of the main manganese silicon contract will oscillate around the cost. Pay attention to the adjustment range of raw material prices and the change of manufacturers' production control intensity [15][16] - **Silicon Iron** - **Core Logic**: The downstream procurement rhythm slows down, the market trading atmosphere fades, the cost adjustment range of silicon iron is limited, the support of steel - making demand for the price weakens, the market trading activity is low during the holiday, and the daily output of silicon iron remains at a low level [17] - **Outlook**: The silicon iron market has weak supply and demand, and the fundamental contradictions are limited. However, the market trading activity is low around the Spring Festival, and the upward driving force of the futures market is insufficient. It is expected that the silicon iron futures price will run at a low level around the cost. Pay attention to the adjustment range of semi - coke prices and settlement electricity prices, as well as the resumption of production trends in the main production areas [17] 3.4 Glass and Soda Ash - **Glass** - **Core Logic**: The supply is expected to decline in the long - term, the downstream demand is weak, the mid - stream inventory is large, and the downstream inventory is neutral. The overall replenishment ability is limited, and the large mid - stream inventory suppresses the glass valuation in the futures market [13] - **Outlook**: There are still expectations of supply disturbances, but the mid - stream and downstream inventories are moderately high. From the perspective of fundamentals, the current supply and demand are still in surplus. If there is no more cold repair before the end of the year, the high inventory will always suppress the price. In the long - term, the oversupply pattern will further intensify, the price center will continue to decline, and capacity reduction will be promoted [13][15] - **Soda Ash** - **Core Logic**: The supply increases month - on - month, the demand for heavy soda ash is expected to maintain rigid procurement, the demand for heavy soda ash weakens due to the expected decline in glass daily melting, the downstream procurement of light soda ash has little change, the supply - demand fundamentals have no obvious change, and the industry is still in the stage of clearing at the bottom of the cycle. The downstream demand has a downward trend, and the dynamic oversupply expectation further intensifies. The upstream has no obvious production reduction recently, and the spot price may return to the price - cut channel [13] - **Outlook**: The cold repair of glass increases, the short - term supply stops production and increases, but the overall supply and demand are still in surplus. It is expected to oscillate in the short - term. In the long - term, the oversupply pattern will further intensify, the price center will continue to decline, and capacity reduction will be promoted [15] 3.5 Steel - **Core Logic**: The spot market trading is weak, the steel mill profitability is stable, the resumption of production of steel mills is slow, the iron water output increases slightly month - on - month, the electric furnace begins to stop production one after another, the output of five major steel products decreases slightly, the demand in the off - season weakens seasonally, and the inventory accumulation pressure on the steel end is emerging, with the social inventory and rebar inventory accumulating significantly [7] - **Outlook**: The inventory accumulation pressure on the steel end in the off - season is emerging, the fundamentals lack highlights, the futures market has short - term downward adjustment pressure, but there are still macro disturbances before the Two Sessions, and the downward space of the futures market is limited [7] 3.6 Iron Ore - **Core Logic**: The global shipping volume decreases slightly month - on - month due to the impact of tropical cyclones in Australia. If there are no other sudden disturbances, the supply side is expected to maintain a relatively loose pattern. The iron water output increases marginally, the rigid demand is still stable, the steel mill replenishment accelerates before the Spring Festival, and the support for the price may gradually weaken as the replenishment progresses. The port inventory continues to accumulate, and the overall inventory pressure is still increasing. The market sentiment has weakened recently, and the futures market is under pressure [7] - **Outlook**: The inventory pressure continues to increase, there are still expectations of weather disturbances on the supply side, the current market has average expectations for post - holiday demand, the futures market is under pressure, but there are still macro expectations after the Spring Festival. After the rapid decline of the futures market, the pressure is released. It is expected to be under pressure and oscillate in the short - term [7][8] 3.7 Scrap Steel - **Core Logic**: The supply of scrap steel is expected to decline seasonally, the demand decreases significantly, and the inventory of steel enterprises increases [9] - **Outlook**: The supply and daily consumption are expected to decline seasonally. As the replenishment nears its end, the overall fundamentals will weaken marginally, and the spot price is expected to follow the finished products [9] 3.8 Commodity Index - **Comprehensive Index**: The commodity index is 2374.89, up 0.70%; the commodity 20 index is 2710.51, up 0.96%; the industrial product index is 2278.80, up 0.21%; the PPI commodity index is 1404.35, up 0.58% [104] - **Plate Index**: The steel industry chain index on February 9, 2026, is 1935.90, with a daily decline of 0.78%, a decline of 1.72% in the past 5 days, a decline of 5.10% in the past month, and a decline of 2.03% since the beginning of the year [105]