农产品早报 2025-07-14 五矿期货农产品早报 五矿期货农产品团队 从业资格号：F0273729 交易咨询号：Z0002942 邮箱：wangja@wkqh.cn 从业资格号：F03116327 交易咨询号：Z0019233 邮箱:yangzeyuan@wkqh.cn 从业资格号：F03114441 交易咨询号：Z0022498 电话：010-60167188 邮箱：sxwei@wkqh.cn 王俊 组长、生鲜研究员 上周五美豆小幅下跌，USDA 月报未能提供利好，且新作全球大豆期末库存被调高。北美天气较好及贸 易战可能波及出口继续施压美豆，不过美豆估值略低，且近期旧作销售较好及生物柴油政策支撑需求， 整体维持区间震荡趋势。周末国内豆粕现货稳定，华东报 2820 元/吨，上周油厂豆粕成交下滑，提货仍 较好。据 MYSTEEL 统计上周国内压榨大豆 229.54 万吨，本周预计压榨 238.03 万吨。饲料企业库存天数 为 7.92（+0.01）天。 杨泽元 白糖、棉花研究员 美豆产区未来两周降雨偏好，覆盖大部分产区，天气有利。巴西方面，升贴水近期稳中小涨，中美大豆 关税仍未解除等支撑当地升贴水，对冲美豆 ...

Group 1 - The U.S. Department of Commerce restored export licenses for EDA software, aviation equipment, and engines to China, marking the end of a recent ban that began in late May [1][2] - The trade dispute escalated with tariffs increasing by 125% between the U.S. and China, leading to significant trade disruptions [2][4] - The U.S. government's ban on exports was a response to China's tightening of rare earth controls, which the U.S. viewed as a retaliatory measure [2][4] Group 2 - China's strict management of rare earth exports is aimed at preventing strategic resources from being used against its interests, creating a counterbalance in negotiations [4][5] - U.S. companies, particularly in the automotive sector, face supply chain disruptions due to China's rare earth export controls, which could lead to production halts [4][6] - The U.S. has relied on smuggling to obtain rare earth materials, but recent crackdowns by China threaten this supply route [6][10] Group 3 - The U.S. export ban on ethane, EDA software, and aviation equipment may backfire, as it could also harm U.S. exports and industries reliant on these markets [12][13] - EDA software is critical for semiconductor design, but China has made significant strides in developing its own alternatives since facing U.S. sanctions [13][18] - The C919 aircraft's engine options include domestically developed alternatives, such as the AEF1200, which is positioned to meet the aircraft's power requirements [15][16][18] Group 4 - The AEF1200 engine, derived from the WS20 military engine, is designed to compete with established Western models like the CFM56, showcasing China's advancements in aviation technology [15][16] - China's approach to building a self-sufficient supply chain in response to U.S. sanctions reflects a long-term strategy to mitigate risks associated with foreign dependencies [18][19] - The recent approval of rare earth exports to major U.S. automakers under strict conditions indicates a strategic compromise to ensure the continued development of China's aviation industry [18]

Group 1 - As of the end of Q2, northbound funds held a market value of 2.29 trillion yuan, an increase of over 2% compared to the end of Q1, with a total of 3,572 A-shares held [1] - The top ten stocks held by northbound funds include Ningde Times, Kweichow Moutai, Midea Group, China Merchants Bank, Yangtze Power, BYD, Ping An Insurance, Zijin Mining, Huichuan Technology, and Mindray Medical [1][2] - The net buying amounts for the top five stocks in Q2 were Ningde Times (12.58 billion yuan), Hengrui Medicine (7.36 billion yuan), Dongpeng Beverage (4.04 billion yuan), Zijin Mining (3.98 billion yuan), and WuXi AppTec (3.32 billion yuan) [3][4] Group 2 - The top five stocks with the largest net selling amounts in Q2 were Kweichow Moutai (-10.32 billion yuan), Midea Group (-8.13 billion yuan), Wuliangye (-4.27 billion yuan), BOE Technology Group (-4.16 billion yuan), and Luxshare Precision (-3.64 billion yuan) [3][4] - The interest from foreign institutions in A-shares has been increasing, with 643 foreign institutions conducting research on 4,835 A-share companies this year [5] - Key sectors attracting foreign interest include electronics, pharmaceuticals, and machinery, with hot topics being AI applications, humanoid robot layouts, innovative drug development, dividends, and merger plans [5] Group 3 - UBS analyst Meng Lei predicts that after short-term fluctuations, the A-share market is expected to see some upward opportunities in the second half of the year, with a projected profit growth of around 6% for the CSI 300 index [6] - There is uncertainty regarding macroeconomic conditions, including the progress of the US-China trade war, domestic policy strength, and overall economic environment factors such as inflation and real estate trends [6] - The proportion of foreign ownership in A-shares has been declining since 2021, influenced by the pandemic and economic conditions, but may stabilize or return to 2021 levels if the Chinese economy continues to recover [6]

Group 1 - Vietnam and the United States have reached a significant agreement regarding tariffs, imposing a 20% tariff on goods exported from Vietnam, while a higher 40% tariff will be applied to goods from third countries that are transshipped through Vietnam to the U.S. [1] - Cambodia has also reached a tariff agreement with the U.S., expected to be similar to Vietnam's agreement, although specific details are not yet fully disclosed [1][7]. - China has expressed its stance, stating it opposes any agreements that harm its interests and will take countermeasures if necessary, indicating potential risks to its economic interests from these agreements [1][3]. Group 2 - The relationships between China and both Vietnam and Cambodia are traditionally friendly, leading to confusion among Chinese netizens regarding these countries' agreements with the U.S., which may be perceived as a betrayal [3]. - Smaller countries like Vietnam and Cambodia, lacking negotiating power, may find it necessary to align with the U.S. for survival, despite their historical ties with China [3][4]. - The agreements with the U.S. were anticipated, as these countries are not expected to serve as useful bargaining chips in the U.S.-China trade war [4].

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the strong cash returns and valuation of China COSCO Shipping Holdings (中远海控), emphasizing its resilience in the shipping industry despite concerns over trade wars and capacity expansion [1][3][4]. Group 1: Dividend and Returns - China COSCO Shipping Holdings implemented a dividend of 10.3 yuan per 10 shares for the annual report and 5.2 yuan for the interim report, resulting in a cash return of 10.29% for shareholders within a year [1]. - In contrast, Kweichow Moutai (贵州茅台) offered a lower dividend yield of 3.63% during the same period [2]. Group 2: Valuation and Market Concerns - The dividend yield of China COSCO Shipping Holdings is 2.8 times that of Kweichow Moutai, with a low dynamic price-to-earnings ratio of 5.1 times [3]. - Investor concerns stem from three main issues: trade wars leading to reduced cargo, capacity expansion causing freight rate collapse, and profit shrinkage when freight rates drop without a corresponding decrease in costs [3]. Group 3: Performance Analysis - Over the past six years, China COSCO Shipping Holdings has experienced fluctuations in performance due to the pandemic and trade wars, yet maintained an average annual net profit of 48.13 billion yuan, which is 80% of Kweichow Moutai's net profit over the same period [4]. - The shipping volume has shown stability, with only a 0.78% difference between 2019 and 2024, indicating that concerns about cargo availability may be overstated [5]. Group 4: Shipping Routes and Trends - The article discusses changes in major shipping routes, noting that the trans-Pacific route saw an increase in volume during the pandemic, while the Eurasian route has declined due to reduced purchasing power in Europe [6][9]. - The Asia-Pacific routes have shown significant growth, with a volume increase of 11.2% from 2019 to 2024, indicating a shift in trade dynamics [7][10]. Group 5: Revenue and Pricing Dynamics - Revenue from the trans-Pacific route has increased significantly despite fluctuations in shipping volume, with a revenue index of 210 in 2021 compared to 2019 [12]. - The Eurasian route has also seen a rise in revenue despite a decrease in shipping volume, with a revenue increase of 60% compared to 2019 [13]. Group 6: Cost and Profitability - The relationship between costs and prices is crucial, with shipping costs rising at a slower rate than freight rates, allowing shipping companies to maintain profitability [20][24]. - In 2024, the total cost as a percentage of revenue decreased to 65%, indicating improved profitability for China COSCO Shipping Holdings [27]. Group 7: Future Prospects - China COSCO Shipping Holdings is in discussions to acquire a stake in ports owned by Li Ka-shing, which could significantly enhance its revenue and operational capacity [32][40]. - The potential acquisition of a 25% stake in Li Ka-shing's ports could double the revenue and overseas throughput of China COSCO Shipping Holdings [40].

财达期货｜螺纹钢、铁矿石 周报 财达期货｜螺纹钢、铁矿石 周报 2025-07-07 短期受钢厂减产消息提振，螺矿盘面延续反弹走势 研究员 姓名：薛国鹏 Z0017173 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 第 1 页 共 10 页 维持 F3073406 【螺纹钢】 期货方面：本周螺纹 10 合约在头多主力增仓驱动下维持小幅反弹走势。截 止周五，螺纹 10 合约收于 3072 元/吨，环比上周上涨 77.0 元， 周涨幅 2.57%。 从 业 资 格 号 ： 投 资 咨 询 号 ： 现货方面：本周螺纹主流地区价格普遍出现明显上调，整体成交小幅转好。 截止周五，全国螺纹平均报价上调 65 元至 3263 元/吨；其中上 海地区螺纹价格上调 90 元至 3170 元/吨；杭州地区螺纹价格上 调 90 元至 3220 元/吨；北京地区螺纹价格上调 20 元至 3170 元 /吨；天津地区螺纹价格上调 10 元至 3170 元/吨；广州地区螺 纹价格上调 100 元至 3250 元/吨。 基 本 面：供给方面：全国 247 家钢厂高炉开工率 83.46%，环比减少 0.36%， 同比增加 0.65%；高炉炼铁产能利用 ...

Group 1: Energy Cooperation - Energy has been a significant area of cooperation between China and the EU over the past 50 years, with both sides having a mutual need for traditional fossil fuels [1] - Future collaboration in renewable energy is expected to increase, as both Europe and China require substantial imports of oil and natural gas, leading to numerous global partnerships in upstream oil and gas exploration [1] - Companies like Total Energy are already engaged in cooperative exploration projects with China, aiming to lower costs through joint financing and procurement of Chinese products and services [1] Group 2: Agricultural Trade - Several Chinese feed manufacturers have signed an agreement to purchase 30,000 tons of Argentine soybean meal, marking the first order since the 2019 agreement allowing such imports [1] - The transaction price for the soybean meal is reported to be $360 per ton, including costs and freight, with expected delivery in September to Guangdong, China [1] - This order is viewed as a "test case," with expectations for more transactions if it passes China's inspection and quarantine [1] Group 3: US-China Trade Relations - The trade war initiated during Trump's first term has led China to reduce its reliance on the US, with significant decreases in imports of LNG, oil, meat, and soybeans from the US [3] - China has successfully negotiated contracts with other countries to replace US imports, causing anxiety in the US, particularly among industries reliant on the Chinese market [3] - The ongoing trade tensions have made US businesses wary, as escalating tariffs could significantly increase annual expenses for American households [3] Group 4: EU's Position - The EU has recognized that the US may exploit its alliance, prompting a reevaluation of its cooperation with the US against China [6] - European leaders, such as French President Macron, advocate for a "third way" that avoids taking sides in the US-China rivalry, aiming to establish a new alliance [4] - The EU's potential distancing from the US could limit America's strategic options and undermine its isolationist policies [6]

Group 1 - The core issue is the escalating global rare earth conflict, with the US and Europe facing severe shortages, particularly in rare earth magnets, which are critical for their industries [1][2] - The EU's ambassador to China expressed urgent need for cooperation from China to resolve the rare earth supply crisis, indicating a shift in Europe's previously strong stance [1][2] - China's dominance in the rare earth market, controlling approximately 90% of global supply, leaves Europe with limited alternatives, forcing them to seek assistance from China [1][2] Group 2 - The US is also experiencing a shortage of rare earths, prompting a strategic pivot towards copper as an alternative resource, with imports exceeding 500,000 tons in a few months [3][4] - The surge in copper imports is driven by fears of potential tariffs and a strategy to leverage copper in negotiations with China, highlighting the interdependence of the two economies [4][7] - Despite the importance of copper, its strategic value is considered limited compared to rare earths, as the US's reliance on copper is not as critical as Europe's dependence on rare earths [7][9] Group 3 - The ongoing trade war between the US and China is characterized as a long-term economic conflict, with both sides continuously adapting their strategies [9][12] - Recent indications of progress in US-China trade negotiations suggest that rare earths have become a pivotal point in the discussions, with potential easing of restrictions being considered [12][13] - The evolving international landscape necessitates vigilance and adaptability from both the US and China, as the competition for resources continues to shape their economic strategies [15][16]

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating The provided content does not mention any industry investment ratings. 2. Core Views - On July 1, 2025, A-share market showed mixed performance with the Shanghai Composite Index up 0.39%, Shenzhen Component Index up 0.11%, and ChiNext Index down 0.24%. The trading volume reached 1.466 trillion yuan, slightly down by 20.8 billion yuan from the previous day [1]. - The prices of various commodities showed different trends. For example, the CSI 300 index rose slightly, while the coke and coking coal weighted indexes declined. The prices of Zhengzhou sugar, rubber, palm oil, etc., were affected by different factors such as supply - demand relationships, weather conditions, and international trade situations [1][2][3]. 3. Summary by Variety Stock Index Futures - On July 1, the Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3457.75, up 0.39%; the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 10476.29, up 0.11%; the ChiNext Index closed at 2147.92, down 0.24%. The trading volume was 1.466 trillion yuan, a slight decrease of 20.8 billion yuan [1]. - The CSI 300 index closed at 3942.76, up 6.68 [2]. Coke and Coking Coal - On July 1, the coke weighted index closed at 1393.2, down 34.8; the coking coal weighted index closed at 823.9 yuan, down 27.8 [3][4]. - For coke, the cost of coking enterprises with long - term contracts may decrease, while those with market - based procurement may face higher costs. The probability of price increases after four rounds of price cuts is low [5]. - For coking coal, supply has tightened recently, and the inventory structure has improved. However, there is a strong expectation of coal mine resumption, and the terminal demand is under pressure [5]. Zhengzhou Sugar - Affected by the expected good harvest in Thailand and India, and the 22.1% decrease in Brazil's sugar production in the first half of June, the US sugar price fell on Monday, and the Zhengzhou sugar 2509 contract declined on Tuesday [5]. Rubber - Due to excessive rainfall in Thailand affecting rubber tapping, the spot price in Southeast Asia has been firm. The Shanghai rubber futures rose on Tuesday and fluctuated slightly at night. The inventory in Qingdao Port continued to increase [6][7]. Palm Oil - On July 1, palm oil was in a volatile state, closing at 8336, up 0.07%. As of June 27, the commercial inventory of palm oil in key regions increased by 23.57% week - on - week and 25.67% year - on - year [7]. Soybean Meal - Internationally, on July 1, CBOT soybeans fluctuated. The good condition of US soybeans was offset by the rise in soybean oil prices. Domestically, the soybean meal M2509 contract closed at 2961 yuan/ton on July 1. With sufficient soybean imports and high oil mill operating rates, soybean meal inventory will gradually increase, and it will run weakly [8]. Live Pigs - On July 1, the live pig futures contract LH2509 closed at 13865 yuan/ton, down 0.04%. The market is in a state of loose supply and demand, and the futures will run weakly [9]. Copper - Macroscopically, copper prices are supported by tight mines and low inventory, but the slowdown of Fed rate cuts and US tariff policies limit the upside. Fundamentally, overseas premiums drive LME copper inventory reduction, and domestic social inventory is lower than last year, so copper prices will continue to be strong [9]. Iron Ore - On July 1, the iron ore 2509 contract fell 1.32% to close at 708.5 yuan. Overseas shipments and domestic arrivals have decreased, while steel mills' blast furnace profits are good, and iron ore will fluctuate in the short term [9]. Asphalt - On July 1, the asphalt 2509 contract rose 0.17% to close at 3562 yuan. The processing profit has improved slightly, but demand is still weak, and the price will fluctuate in the short term [10]. Logs - On July 1, the log 2509 contract opened at 784, with a low of 778, a high of 789, and closed at 787, with an increase of 48 lots. The inventory in ports has increased slightly, and demand is weak [11]. Cotton - On the night of July 1, the Zhengzhou cotton main contract closed at 13775 yuan/ton. The cotton inventory in Xinjiang's designated delivery warehouses decreased by 62 lots [11]. Steel - On July 1, rb2510 closed at 3003 yuan/ton, and hc2510 closed at 3136 yuan/ton. The black - series rebound has paused, and although there are rumors of production cuts, terminal demand is still weak [11]. Alumina - Under the situation of supply surplus in the third quarter, alumina prices will be mainly determined by cost. The price is under pressure due to the expected large - scale new production capacity in the future [12]. Aluminum - The supply of electrolytic aluminum is close to the industry limit. Although terminal demand is in the off - season, the processing link has maintained a certain level of demand. Low inventory is currently supporting aluminum prices, but there is a risk of demand weakening in the future [12].

Core Viewpoint - The ongoing supply chain battle between China and the U.S. is intensifying, with the U.S. employing export controls as a central issue in trade negotiations, while China retaliates by controlling rare earth supplies [1][3]. Group 1: Supply Chain Dynamics - The U.S. has implemented stringent measures in the chip sector, effectively isolating China, while China has responded by leveraging its control over rare earth resources [1][6]. - China has adopted a "dual-line" strategy in rare earth exports, tightening controls on critical materials while easing restrictions on ordinary rare earths to meet civilian demand [6][4]. Group 2: Export Control Measures - Since April 2023, China has introduced an export licensing system for seven critical minerals, leading to a complete halt in exports of certain rare earths like terbium and dysprosium, which were previously exported in significant quantities [3][4]. - The U.S. has felt the pressure from these export restrictions, with companies like Ford experiencing production halts due to a lack of rare earth magnets essential for manufacturing [4][6]. Group 3: International Reactions - The G7 countries are collaborating on a "critical minerals action plan" to counter China's rare earth strategy, with the U.S. pushing for resource development in regions like Greenland and Canada [6][7]. - Despite these efforts, China maintains a dominant position, controlling 80% to 90% of the global rare earth supply, making it challenging for the U.S. and its allies to reduce dependency [6][7]. Group 4: Future Implications - The control of rare earth resources is pivotal in the trade war, with potential significant impacts on U.S. high-tech industries if China escalates export restrictions [7]. - The effectiveness of any agreements between the two nations will depend on the U.S.'s genuine commitment to reducing trade friction, as past behaviors have led to skepticism from China [7].