Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Outperform the Market" [4] Core Insights - The report highlights the ongoing challenges in the pig farming sector, with prices experiencing fluctuations due to increased slaughtering and seasonal demand [10][21]. - The poultry sector, particularly white-feathered chickens, is seeing price increases driven by stocking up in anticipation of better market conditions [35][39]. - The report emphasizes the importance of policy measures aimed at stabilizing production capacity in the pig industry, which could lead to long-term price improvements [10][31]. Summary by Sections Pig Farming - The average price of pigs on July 25 was 14.10 CNY/kg, down 0.09 CNY/kg week-on-week [10]. - Slaughtering volumes remain low due to hot weather and weak market demand, with an average daily slaughter of 134,700 pigs, up 1.44% week-on-week [14]. - The average weight of pigs at market decreased to 128.48 kg, with group farms averaging 124.27 kg and smallholders at 141.92 kg [21]. - Recent policy discussions emphasize strict production capacity controls, including the reduction of breeding sows and the encouragement of large enterprises to collaborate with smaller farms [31]. Poultry Sector - The price of white-feathered chickens rose to 6.70 CNY/kg, an increase of 0.30 CNY/kg week-on-week, while chicken seed prices reached 1.93 CNY/bird, up 0.56 CNY/bird [35]. - Egg prices also showed strength, with an average of 6.73 CNY/kg, up 0.90 CNY/kg week-on-week [35]. - The ongoing avian influenza situation is affecting supply, with restrictions on imports from certain countries potentially leading to further price increases [39]. Agricultural Products - Soybean meal futures saw a decline, with the DCE soybean meal contract closing at 3,021 CNY/ton, down 35 CNY/ton week-on-week [48]. - The report notes that downstream feed enterprises are increasing purchases due to concerns over rising prices, while domestic oil mills maintain high processing volumes [50]. - The report anticipates limited downward price adjustments for soybean meal in the short term, with a gradual upward shift in price levels expected [50]. Industry Performance - The agricultural sector saw a 3.62% increase over the past week, outperforming major indices such as the Shanghai Composite Index, which rose by 1.67% [55]. - Within the agricultural sub-sectors, the livestock industry led with a 5.27% increase, followed by planting and aquaculture [55].

长江期货饲料养殖产业周报 2025-7-28 【产业服务总部 | 饲料养殖中心】 研 究 员：韦 蕾 执业编号: F0244258 投资咨询号:Z0011781 研 究 员：刘汉缘 执业编号: F03101804 投资咨询号:Z0021169 长江期货股份有限公司交易咨询业务资格：鄂证监期货字[2014]1号 01 饲料养殖观点汇总 目 录 02 品种产业数据分析 01 生猪：弱现实强预期，维持近弱远强 u 期现端：截至7月25日，全国现货价格14.81元/公斤，较上周持平；河南猪价14.18元/公斤，较上周价格下跌0.19元/公斤；生猪2509报价14385元/吨，较上周上涨250 元/吨；09合约基差-205元/吨，较上周下跌440元/吨。周度生猪价格先涨后跌，小幅调整，周初价格低位养殖端抗价惜售，二育逢低介入，带动价格触底反弹，周中后 期集团增量、散户出栏积极性增强，而终端消费疲软，供强需弱压制价格走低；盘面因周三要召开生猪行业高质量会议，供给侧改革预期炒作，资金看涨情绪高涨，周初 价格大幅拉涨，随着会议内容明确，涉及疫情防控、产能调控、低蛋白日粮、育种、规范屠宰等，围绕行业高质量发展，产能调控措施与前 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The US and the EU have reached a 15% tariff rate agreement. The EU will increase its investment in the US by $600 billion, purchase US military equipment, and buy $750 billion worth of US energy products. This will lead to a short - term decline in the US dollar index [15]. - The central bank conducted 789.3 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations. Market sentiment is expected to ease temporarily next week, but risk appetite will be strong in Q3, and there will still be fluctuations in the bond market [3]. - The 10 - department joint issuance of the plan to promote agricultural product consumption aims to boost agricultural product consumption through various measures. The decline in industrial enterprise profits in June has narrowed, and the new kinetic energy industry represented by the equipment industry has seen rapid profit growth [17][18]. - The export data of Malaysian palm oil is poor, and the domestic oil mill operating rate is expected to increase. Steel prices have risen significantly due to the continuous increase in coking coal and coke prices and the relatively strong fundamentals of finished products, but there is a risk of overvaluation [5]. - Polysilicon is expected to correct in the short term, and it is advisable to consider short - selling lightly through options [6]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Financial News and Comments 3.1.1 Macro Strategy (Foreign Exchange Futures - US Dollar Index) - The US and the EU have reached a 15% tariff rate agreement. Trump has the right to restore higher tariff levels if other countries fail to fulfill their investment commitments. The EU hopes to continue discussions on steel and aluminum tariffs with the US. The applicable tariff will be the higher of the "most - favored - nation tariff" or 15%. The short - term market risk preference will moderately recover, and the US dollar index will decline in the short term [13][15]. - Investment advice: The US dollar index will decline in the short term [16]. 3.1.2 Macro Strategy (Stock Index Futures) - 10 departments jointly issued the "Implementation Plan for Promoting Agricultural Product Consumption" to promote agricultural product consumption through various measures. In June, the profits of industrial enterprises above designated size decreased by 4.3% year - on - year, and the decline has narrowed. The new kinetic energy industry represented by the equipment industry has seen rapid profit growth. The US and the EU have reached a 15% tariff agreement, which may set an example for upcoming China - US tariffs. A Politburo meeting will be held this week, and attention should be paid to its statements on the economic work in the second half of the year [17][18][19]. - Investment advice: It is recommended to allocate stock indexes evenly [20]. 3.1.3 Macro Strategy (US Stock Index Futures) - The US and the EU have reached a 15% tariff agreement, but there are still differences in key industry tariffs. The US durable goods orders in June decreased by 9.3% month - on - month, better than the expected - 10.7%. The core data excluding Boeing orders performed well. The US - EU tariff negotiation has accelerated, and the risk of further deterioration of the tariff level has decreased, supporting market risk preference [21][22]. - Investment advice: The trade negotiation is moving in a positive direction, and it will still fluctuate strongly in the short term, but attention should be paid to the risk of correction [22]. 3.1.4 Macro Strategy (Treasury Bond Futures) - The central bank conducted 789.3 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net investment of 601.8 billion yuan. Market sentiment is expected to ease temporarily next week, and the funds are expected to become looser after the end of the month. However, risk appetite will be strong in Q3, and there will still be fluctuations in the bond market [23]. - Investment advice: It is recommended to cautiously bet on the opportunity of oversold rebound next week. Do not be bearish in the long term, but the market will be volatile in Q3, and it may be too early for allocation buyers to go long at present [24]. 3.2 Commodity News and Comments 3.2.1 Black Metals (Coking Coal/Coke) - The coking coal price in the Linfen market is running strongly. The recent futures price increase is mainly due to macro - policies. The National Energy Administration plans to conduct a verification of coal mine production in key coal - producing provinces, but the actual impact of checking over - production may be limited. The price may return to the fundamentals. The supply of coking coal has recovered partially this week, and the coke price has increased for the third time, with some steel mills accepting the increase [25][26]. - Investment advice: The market sentiment for coking coal is still strong, but the risk is high as the price rises significantly. Pay attention to position management [27]. 3.2.2 Agricultural Products (Soybean Oil/Rapeseed Oil/Palm Oil) - The actual soybean crushing volume of domestic oil mills in the 30th week was 2.2389 million tons, with an operating rate of 62.94%. It is expected to reach 2.3726 million tons and 66.69% in the 31st week. From July 1 - 25, the export of Malaysian palm oil decreased by 9.23% month - on - month. The production of Malaysian palm oil in July is expected to increase, and the inventory will increase significantly. China may export 100,000 - 120,000 tons of soybean oil to India [28][29]. - Investment advice: The data from Malaysia is bearish for palm oil. It is not recommended to short unilaterally. Consider buying put options or waiting for opportunities to go long at low prices. For international soybean oil, focus on US weather and bio - fuel policies. For domestic soybean oil, if exports to India increase, it will support prices [30]. 3.2.3 Agricultural Products (Sugar) - The international sugar price has fluctuated greatly. The expected increase in production in Brazil and India and the rumor of India's export in the 2025/26 season have put pressure on the price. India's sugar export may be unfeasible at current international prices. The sugar mills of Guangxi Nanhua have cleared their warehouses, and the spot price in Guangxi has remained stable with a narrow - range shock. The sugarcane yield in the central - southern region of Brazil has decreased in June [31][33][34]. - Investment advice: The international sugar market is under pressure from supply. The Zhengzhou sugar futures are expected to fluctuate mainly. Pay attention to the resistance level of 5900 yuan [35]. 3.2.4 Agricultural Products (Cotton) - In the first half of 2025, China's cotton product exports increased under pressure. As of mid - July, the pre - sale progress of Brazilian cotton in 2025 was 65%. As of July 17, the weekly net signing of US cotton in the 25/26 season was 30,100 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 54%. The ICE cotton price is expected to be in a low - level shock pattern in the short term [36][37][39]. - Investment advice: The lack of news about increased import quotas in China, tight old - cotton inventory, and high operating rates in Xinjiang spinning mills will support cotton prices in the short term. However, the demand from inland spinning mills is weakening, and the increase in warehouse receipts and the expectation of increased production in the 25/26 season may limit the upward trend of cotton prices [40]. 3.2.5 Agricultural Products (Soybean Meal) - Argentina has lowered the export tariffs on soybeans, soybean meal, and soybean oil. The operating rate of domestic oil mills has remained high. China has stopped purchasing US soybeans since the end of May, and the pre - sale of US new - crop soybeans is significantly lower than the normal level in previous years [41][42]. - Investment advice: CBOT soybeans and soybean meal are expected to fluctuate. Focus on the development of the China - US trade war. Soybean meal inventory will continue to accumulate, and the spot basis will remain weak [42]. 3.2.6 Black Metals (Steam Coal) - Most coal mines in Ordos maintained normal production on July 23, and the coal price was stable with a slight increase. The implementation of the over - production policy and high summer temperatures are expected to keep the coal price strong. The power plant's inventory has decreased slightly, and the coal price is expected to return to around the long - term agreement price of 670 yuan [43][44]. - Investment advice: The coal price is expected to remain strong, and it is expected to return to around 670 yuan, the long - term agreement price [44]. 3.2.7 Black Metals (Iron Ore) - The iron ore production and sales of Mount Gibson in the second quarter decreased year - on - year. Affected by coking coal and coke, the iron ore price has fluctuated strongly, but it has encountered resistance after breaking through $105. The long - term increase in the price center of coking coal and coke will suppress the upside potential of iron ore [45]. - Investment advice: Observe the follow - up of the spot market after the price pull - back. The market sentiment fluctuates greatly, so it is recommended to reduce the position [46]. 3.2.8 Black Metals (Rebar/Hot - Rolled Coil) - The fifth blast furnace of Vietnam's Hoa Phat Group's Dung Quat Steel Complex has been put into operation, increasing the annual production capacity by 5.6 million tons. The total new - signed contract value of the top seven construction central enterprises in the first six months exceeded 5.9 trillion yuan. South Korea will impose temporary anti - dumping duties on hot - rolled steel plates imported from China and Japan. Steel prices have risen significantly, but there is a risk of overvaluation [47][49][50]. - Investment advice: Steel prices will remain strong in the short term. It is recommended to observe cautiously [51]. 3.2.9 Agricultural Products (Corn Starch) - The consumption of corn starch sugar is average, and the operating rate has decreased. The consumption of corn and corn starch has decreased this week [52]. - Investment advice: Starch enterprises may continue to face losses, and the operating rate is expected to remain low. This is not favorable for the rice - flour price difference [53][54]. 3.2.10 Agricultural Products (Corn) - In June 2025, the national industrial feed production was 27.67 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 6.6%. The proportion of corn in compound feed increased by 2.5 percentage points year - on - year. The "anti - involution" policy in the breeding industry may reduce the corn demand in the new year [55]. - Investment advice: The stalemate in the spot market may continue until the new corn is on the market. The 09 contract may weaken in advance. Hold the short positions of new - crop corn and look for opportunities to add positions on rebounds [55]. 3.2.11 Non - Ferrous Metals (Lithium Carbonate) - The Guangzhou Futures Exchange has adjusted the trading limit for the LC2509 contract of lithium carbonate futures. The price of lithium carbonate has increased, and there are rumors about production cuts in some areas. The limit - trading measure is expected to stabilize the market [56][57]. - Investment advice: Before the production cuts are confirmed, there is no upward momentum for the price. Pay attention to the downstream procurement. It is recommended to pay attention to the opportunity of holding inventory and reverse arbitrage [58]. 3.2.12 Non - Ferrous Metals (Copper) - The EU has started monitoring the trade of scrap copper and aluminum. Teck Resources has lowered the production forecast of its Chilean copper mine. Freeport's Indonesian subsidiary has started its new smelter [59][60][61]. - Investment advice: Unilaterally, be cautious about the repeated macro - expectations. The copper price is expected to remain high and fluctuate. It is recommended to observe. For arbitrage, pay attention to the opportunity of domestic - foreign reverse arbitrage [62]. 3.2.13 Non - Ferrous Metals (Polysilicon) - The Guangzhou Futures Exchange has adjusted the trading limit, daily limit, margin, and handling fees for industrial silicon and polysilicon futures. The spot price of polysilicon has increased slightly, but the actual transaction has not changed much. The production of polysilicon is expected to increase in July and August, with a monthly surplus of 100,000 - 200,000 tons [63][64][65]. - Investment advice: The delivery price of polysilicon sets a lower limit for the futures price. However, due to the difficulty of the spot price to keep up with the futures price increase, the short - term price is expected to correct. Consider short - selling lightly through options and look for opportunities to go long after the correction [66]. 3.2.14 Non - Ferrous Metals (Industrial Silicon) - The production and operating rate of industrial silicon in Xinjiang, the Northwest, Yunnan, and Sichuan have shown different trends. The social inventory has decreased, and the factory inventory has increased. The supply is expected to increase with the resumption of production, and the supply - demand gap will narrow in August [67][68][69]. - Investment advice: After the price increase, the basis of industrial silicon has weakened rapidly. Pay attention to the opportunity of short - selling at high prices or selling out - of - the - money call options [69]. 3.2.15 Non - Ferrous Metals (Nickel) - Danantara is considering acquiring the GNI smelter in Indonesia. The nickel price has been strong recently but fell on Friday night. There are different statements about Indonesia's nickel export policy. The price of Philippine nickel ore has decreased, and the price of nickel iron has increased, but the steel mills' purchasing intention is not strong [70][71]. - Investment advice: The nickel price is closely related to macro - sentiment. It is recommended to use options for hedging in unilateral trading. Holders can sell for hedging at high prices [72]. 3.2.16 Non - Ferrous Metals (Lead) - From January to June 2025, the number of electric bicycles recycled and replaced was 8.465 million each. The new national standard for electric bicycles will be implemented on September 1. The overseas macro - situation has limited fluctuations. The supply of primary lead is tight, and the production of secondary lead has increased slightly. The demand from end - users has not improved significantly, but the lead social inventory may turn around [73][74][75]. - Investment advice: In the short term, pay attention to the opportunity of buying at low prices and manage the position well. For arbitrage, it is recommended to observe temporarily [76]. 3.2.17 Non - Ferrous Metals (Zinc) - The port inventory of zinc concentrate has decreased by 860,000 tons compared with last week. The 0 - 3 cash spread of LME zinc has turned negative, but the注销仓单 is still high. The zinc smelting profit may improve in August, and the supply is expected to remain high. The demand from primary processing industries is differentiated, and the social inventory has increased significantly [77][78]. - Investment advice: Unilaterally, the risk is high, and it is recommended to observe. For arbitrage, pay attention to the opportunity of medium - term calendar spread positive arbitrage. It is recommended to observe in terms of domestic - foreign trading [79]. 3.2.18 Energy Chemicals (Carbon Emissions) - On July 25, the closing price of the EUA main contract was 71.34 euros/ton, a 0.65% increase from the previous day and a 2.07% increase from last week. The investment funds reduced their net long positions by 100,000 tons last week. The carbon price is expected to be volatile in the short term [80]. - Investment advice: The EU carbon price will be volatile in the short term [81]. 3.2.19 Energy Chemicals (Crude Oil) - The number of US oil rigs has decreased. The Middle - East oil price has strengthened relative to Brent. The increase in the Middle - East oil export volume is limited. The strong diesel crack spread and EU sanctions on Russia support the Middle - East oil price [82][83]. - Investment advice: The oil price will remain volatile. Pay attention to the OPEC+ meeting and market risk preference [84]. 3.2.20 Energy Chemicals (Caustic Soda) - On July 25, the price of liquid caustic soda in Shandong was slightly adjusted. The supply has increased, and the demand is average. The caustic soda futures price has increased due to the overall positive sentiment in the commodity market, but the increase is limited [85][86]. - Investment advice: The caustic soda valuation is not low, and the speculative demand is difficult to stimulate, resulting in a small increase [86]. 3.2.21 Energy Chemicals (Pulp) - The spot price of imported wood pulp is generally stable, with individual prices increasing slightly. The futures price has continued to rise, but the downstream paper mills' follow - up is not strong, and high - price transactions are difficult [87]. - Investment advice: Due to the "anti - involution" policy, low - valued pulp may be targeted by funds. Investors should pay attention to the risks [88]. 3.

Investment Rating - Industry rating: Outperform the market (maintained rating) [13] Core Views - The report emphasizes the importance of reducing production in the pig sector, highlighting the expectation gap in the industry [1][2] - The dairy sector is experiencing a bottoming out of raw milk prices, with a potential new cycle for beef cattle starting [3][19] - The pet food sector is witnessing the rise of domestic brands and a positive trend in exports [4][21] - The poultry sector is focusing on the shortage of breeding stock and improving consumer demand for yellow chickens [5][23] - The planting sector is prioritizing food security and the strategic importance of biological breeding [8][29] - The feed sector is recommended for companies with increasing market share and consistent performance, particularly Haida Group [10][31] Summary by Sections Pig Sector - As of July 26, the average price of pigs is 14.81 CNY/kg, stable compared to the previous week, with a notable high average weight of 128.48 kg for market pigs [1][17] - The Ministry of Agriculture emphasizes strict capacity control measures to reduce the number of breeding sows and control the weight of pigs being sold [1][18] - The sector is currently undervalued, with leading companies like Muyuan Foods and Wens Foodstuffs showing low average market values [2][18] Cattle Sector - As of the third week of July, live cattle prices are 26.53 CNY/kg, down 0.2% week-on-week, while raw milk prices remain at 3.04 CNY/kg [3][19] - The dairy industry has faced significant losses, with an estimated cumulative income loss of 70 billion CNY from 2023 to 2025 [3][20] - Companies that can withstand the current downturn and have mother cow resources are expected to have strong profit potential [3][20] Pet Sector - Domestic brands in the pet food market are growing rapidly, with significant sales figures reported [4][21] - Pet food exports have increased, with 167,900 tons exported in the first half of 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 5.7% [4][21] - Recommended companies include Guibao Pet Food and Zhongchong Co., with a focus on high-growth domestic companies [4][22] Poultry Sector - The report highlights the uncertainty in breeding stock imports due to avian influenza outbreaks, leading to a 33.46% year-on-year decline in breeding stock updates [5][23] - As of July 26, the price of broiler chicks has increased to 2.6 CNY/chick, driven by reduced supply and increased stocking enthusiasm [5][24] - Investment suggestions include focusing on self-breeding opportunities and companies with alternative breeding resources [5][26] Planting Sector - The report stresses the need for a focus on increasing grain production through improved yield and the integration of various agricultural practices [8][29] - The importance of financial support for seed industry revitalization is highlighted, with a push for the commercialization of genetically modified crops [8][29] - Recommended companies include Longping High-Tech and Dabeinong [8][30] Feed Sector - Haida Group is highlighted as a key player in the feed sector, with expectations of market recovery following a prolonged downturn [10][31] - The report notes significant price fluctuations in raw materials, which could benefit companies with strong hedging and feed formulation capabilities [10][31]

Group 1 - The livestock ETF (516760.SH) experienced a fluctuation with a current increase of 0.59%, while key components such as Muyuan Foods (002714) rose by 1.86%, Wens Foodstuff Group (300498) by 0.99%, Haida Group (002311) by 0.49%, and New Hope Liuhe (000876) remained unchanged [1] - As of July 24, 2025, the livestock ETF has accumulated a 3.03% increase over the past week [1] - The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs held a meeting on July 23 to promote high-quality development in the pig industry, emphasizing the need to prevent significant fluctuations in production and prices, and to enhance the overall quality and competitiveness of the industry [1] Group 2 - CITIC Securities reported that the high-quality development of the pig industry is ongoing, with continued government guidance on capacity regulation [1] - The meeting highlighted the importance of capacity control and high-quality development, suggesting that further policy measures may be implemented to accelerate industry capacity reduction [1] - The livestock ETF closely tracks the CSI Livestock Breeding Index, which reflects the overall performance of listed companies involved in livestock feed, veterinary drugs, and breeding [2] Group 3 - The latest price-to-earnings ratio (PE-TTM) of the CSI Livestock Breeding Index is 13.34 times, indicating that it is at a historical low, being below 88.73% of the time over the past three years [2] - The current valuation of the sector remains low, suggesting a high margin of safety, and it is recommended to actively monitor the livestock ETF (516760.SH) [2]

养殖：产能调控与高质量发展 20250724 摘要 行业调控透明化：会议明确了对生猪养殖在饲料、屠宰和养殖端的具体 要求，标志着行业调控更加透明，旨在规范市场行为。 饲料端强调降本增效：推广低蛋白日粮技术和豆粕减量替代，旨在降低 饲料成本，保障粮食和供应链安全，提升养殖效益。 养殖端多措并举稳供给：通过淘汰低效母猪、减少二次育肥、控制出栏 体重和严控新增产能，以应对当前供给过剩，稳定市场价格，降低价格 预测难度。 产能控制影响深远：严格限制新增产能，将直接影响养殖企业未来几年 的成长性和成本结构，对 2025 年及 2026 年的市场预期产生深远影响。 政策调控提升价格预期：在盈利背景下进行产能调控，明确政策决心， 即使效果不达预期也会持续推进，从而提升未来价格预期。 投资策略关注龙头业绩：关注牧原、温氏等低成本龙头公司的业绩持续 性，在政策催化下，这些公司可能会出现业绩超预期，建议持有一定仓 位。 关注细化措施和企业响应：需关注新增产能的界定时间、降产能目标分 配方式等更具体的细化措施，以及企业对政策的响应和相关数据，这些 将进一步催化市场反应。 Q&A 农业农村部在最近的座谈会上提出了哪些关于生猪产业高质 ...

7月24日，生猪期货震荡下行，截至发稿主力合约报14320.00元/吨，跌幅2.55%。 机构观点 华联期货：需求淡季，终端消费依旧疲软，下游抵触高价猪。近期二育积极性放缓，加之料比较高，养 殖端加速出栏，供应压力显现，全国生猪现货价格弱势回调。不过在政策控量的预期下猪价下跌空间或 有限。中期来看，规模养殖场仍有利润，主动去产能积极性不高，能繁母猪存栏量仍处高位运行。政策 利好，看多情绪高涨，主力合约区间宽幅震荡，支撑位参考14000，可轻仓买入看涨期权。 国元期货：前生猪行业正处于产能释放阶段，终端消费则处于淡季。不过养殖端对后续需求回暖存在一 定预期，养殖端逢低压栏和二育操作，对猪价形成支撑，使得短期现货价格呈现震荡。受旺季消费预期 及产能调控政策的双重提振，盘面短期看涨情绪升温。然而从中期来看，当前存栏基数偏高，供给压力 持续释放。此外，短期看涨情绪引发的压栏和二育导致供给后置，进一步加剧中期的供应压力。综合来 看，在情绪主导的背景下，短期内盘面维持阶段性反弹走势，但受制于供给端的压力，反弹空间有限。 生猪2509建议区间14000-15000元/吨。 【消息面汇总】 农业农村部部党组书记、部长韩俊表示 ...

Summary of Agricultural Industry Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call focuses on the agricultural industry, specifically the pig farming sector, in the context of anti-involution policies and supply-side reforms aimed at stabilizing the Consumer Price Index (CPI) [1][2][5]. Key Points and Arguments - **Government Policies**: The government has implemented several measures to control pig farming, including banning the addition of breeding sows, reducing slaughter weights, strict regulation of secondary fattening, and stabilizing pig prices. These measures aim to control supply and boost CPI, which has been negative from February to May 2025 [1][2][5]. - **Supply-Side Reform**: The current supply-side reform is compared to the 2016-2017 reforms, with similarities in being at a late stage of capacity reduction. However, the current interventions are described as more moderate, with unclear demand signals, requiring observation until the end of 2025 or early 2026 [1][4][6]. - **Capacity Control Stages**: The capacity control is divided into three stages: limiting production for large farming enterprises, restricting financing for medium-sized farms, and environmental checks for small farms. The goal is to maintain stable industry capacity with less social impact compared to previous reforms [1][7]. - **Market Outlook**: If the policy measures do not yield results within the next six months to a year, further interventions may be necessary. The stock prices in the sector are expected to rise steadily, with a focus on leading companies like Muyuan Foods and Wens Foodstuffs [1][8]. - **Profitability of Leading Companies**: Muyuan Foods is expected to transition from a cyclical growth stock to a cyclical value stock, achieving stable profits and dividends annually. The company is projected to reach a market value of 400 billion yuan based on a 20 billion yuan dividend reference [3][10]. Additional Important Insights - **Historical Context**: Previous agricultural supply-side reforms have significantly impacted the industry, with a notable decline in breeding sow numbers from 50 million in 2013 to approximately 33-34 million in mid-2018. The current reforms are seen as less drastic, aiming for stability rather than forced closures of farms [7]. - **Investment Logic Shift**: The investment logic in the agricultural sector is shifting from speculative trading to value investing, focusing on companies with low costs and strong profitability. This strategy is expected to benefit from policy catalysts and sustained market conditions [12]. - **Future Prospects**: The pig farming industry is viewed as having a promising future, with a favorable supply-demand balance and potential for bottom-fishing opportunities. Investors are encouraged to focus on leading companies in the sector to capitalize on upcoming market trends [13]. Recommended Companies - **Key Companies to Watch**: The focus is on Muyuan Foods and DeKang Agriculture in the A-share and Hong Kong markets, respectively. DeKang is noted for its technological advancements and cost efficiency, with projections for significant production and profitability in 2026 [11]. Other companies of interest include Wens Foodstuffs, Shennong Group, and Juxing Agriculture, which also exhibit strong profitability [11].

Group 1: Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. Group 2: Core View - The short - term policy expectation for methanol is greater than the fundamentals. Although the methanol fundamentals are bearish in terms of valuation and drivers, it is recommended to temporarily exit short positions and wait and see [1]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Methanol Futures and Spot Prices - Futures prices: MA01 increased from 2434.00 yuan/ton to 2482.00 yuan/ton, a rise of 1.97%; MA05 rose from 2364.00 yuan/ton to 2406.00 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.78%; MA09 climbed from 2365.00 yuan/ton to 2411.00 yuan/ton, a growth of 1.95% [1]. - Spot prices: In different regions, prices in some areas changed slightly. For example, the price in Taicang increased by 0.52%, while that in Shandong decreased by 0.11%. Some regions like Guangdong and Hubei had no price change [1]. - Basis: The basis of Taicang spot - MA decreased from - 49.00 yuan/ton to - 84.50 yuan/ton [1]. 2. Raw Material Prices - Coal prices: The price of Ordos Q5500 increased by 1.12%, while that of Datong Q5500 remained unchanged, and Yulin Q6000 decreased by 0.49% [1]. - Industrial natural gas prices: Prices in Hohhot and Chongqing remained unchanged [1]. 3. Profit Situation - Methanol production profit: Coal - to - methanol profit decreased by 1.58%, while natural - gas - to - methanol profit remained unchanged [1]. - Downstream profit: Northwest MTO profit increased by 6.70%, while East China MTO profit decreased by 5.15%. Profits of some downstream products like acetic acid, MTBE decreased, while those of formaldehyde and dimethyl ether remained unchanged [1]. 4. Important Information - Domestic: The main methanol contract MA2509 fluctuated and rose, with an opening price of 2368 yuan/ton, a closing price of 2411 yuan/ton, a rise of 37 yuan/ton, a trading volume of 857,527 lots, and an open interest of 650,630 lots, with increased volume and decreased positions [1]. - Foreign: Two 330 - million - ton methanol plants in a Middle - Eastern country reduced their loads to 50%, and another 165 - million - ton plant planned a short - term shutdown for maintenance in the near two days, leading to a slight decline in the overall operating load and daily production [1]. 5. Trading Strategy - Considering the policy expectation and the bearish fundamentals of methanol, it is recommended to temporarily exit short positions and wait and see [1].

Economic News - In June, the total electricity consumption in China reached 867 billion kWh, a year-on-year increase of 5.4% [1] - The People's Bank of China announced that the 5-year LPR remains at 3.5% and the 1-year LPR at 3% [1] - The U.S. government is reviewing contracts between SpaceX and federal agencies due to concerns over potential waste in multi-billion dollar deals [1] - The Ministry of Transport reported that several key indicators of the "14th Five-Year Plan" have been completed ahead of schedule, including highway mileage and urban rail transit [1] - E-commerce in China saw a growth of 8.5% in online retail sales from January to June 2025, with significant increases in digital products and home appliances [1] - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology is set to release a plan to stabilize growth in ten key industries, including steel and non-ferrous metals [1] - The European Investment Bank will launch a financing support plan totaling €4.25 billion for renewable energy and green technology investments in EU countries [1] Company News - Yushutech has begun its IPO counseling process with CITIC Securities as the advisor, aiming to submit its application by October 2025 [4] - Suzhou Goodark has been established in Singapore with an investment of approximately 8 million RMB for electronic materials and solar cell production [4] - Hongxin Technology signed contracts with a leading domestic flying car company for the development and procurement of components, which is expected to positively impact its performance [4] - Rainbowsoft's chairman proposed a cash dividend plan for 2025, suggesting a distribution of no less than 60% of the net profit attributable to shareholders [4] - Changyingtong expects revenue between 173 million to 211 million RMB for the first half of 2025, with a significant increase in net profit due to rising demand for optical fiber devices [4] Retail Industry - In June 2025, the total retail sales of consumer goods grew by 4.8% year-on-year, with a slowdown attributed to the earlier "618" shopping festival and weaker restaurant sales [5][6] - Essential consumption remains stable, while optional categories show a slowdown in recovery, with food and daily necessities performing well [6] - Home appliances and furniture sales saw significant growth, with home appliances up 32.4% and furniture up 28.7% year-on-year, driven by government policies [7] - Online retail sales increased by 8.5% in the first half of 2025, with physical goods online sales growing by 6.0%, indicating a steady growth in online consumption [8] - The retail market is expected to continue its recovery, with a focus on durable goods benefiting from policy support and consumer preferences for high-cost performance products [8]