Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - No information provided in the given reports. Group 2: Core Views of the Reports 粕类产业 - Domestic two - meal decline space is limited, and the cost support expectation of meal products in the fourth quarter is still strong. It is expected that 01 will operate in the range of 3000 - 3100 [1]. 生猪产业 - The slaughter volume of the breeding end has increased, and the spot pressure has been continuously realized. The short - term rebound of the futures price does not rule out the possibility of subsequent decline, and it is expected that the futures and spot prices will continue to bottom out [3]. 油脂 industry - Palm oil futures are expected to gradually rise to around 4500 ringgit and maintain a strong consolidation. Domestic palm oil futures are expected to follow the upward trend. For soybean oil, the supply in the United States supports the market, and the domestic soybean oil inventory has increased. The spot basis quotation may rise with the reduction of soybean supply [7]. 玉米 industry - In the short term, the market supply and demand are loose, and the futures price fluctuates weakly; in the medium term, it maintains a weak situation, and short - selling should be cautious [8]. 白糖 industry - The raw sugar price is expected to maintain a bottom - oscillating pattern. The domestic spot pressure still exists. The futures price is expected to stabilize around 5500 in the short term, but the rebound space is limited, and the idea of selling high is still maintained later [12]. cotton industry - In the short term, domestic cotton prices may fluctuate within a range, and will be under pressure after the new cotton is listed in the long term [14]. egg industry - The demand may drive up the egg price to the annual high, but the supply side may suppress the increase. After the replenishment of traders ends next week, the egg price in some areas may decline slightly [18]. Group 3: Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs 粕类产业 - **豆粕**: The current price in Jiangsu is 3030 yuan, unchanged from the previous value; the futures price of M2601 is 3041 yuan, down 1 yuan; the basis is - 11 yuan, up 1 yuan; the spot basis in Jiangsu is m2601 - 90; the Brazilian 11 - month shipping schedule's disk import profit is 7 yuan, up 13 yuan [1]. - **菜粕**: The current price in Jiangsu is 2620 yuan, up 20 yuan; the futures price of RM2601 is 2518 yuan, up 14 yuan; the basis is 102 yuan, up 6 yuan; the Canadian 11 - month shipping schedule's disk import profit is 866 yuan, up 103 yuan [1]. - **Soybean**: The current price of Harbin soybeans is 3980 yuan, unchanged; the futures price of the main soybean contract is 3924 yuan, down 15 yuan; the basis is 56 yuan, up 15 yuan; the current price of imported soybeans in Jiangsu is 3900 yuan, unchanged; the futures price of the main soybean - 2 contract is 3729 yuan, up 1 yuan; the basis is 171 yuan, down 1 yuan [1]. - **Spreads**: The 01 - 05 spread of soybean meal is 239 yuan, up 1 yuan; the 01 - 05 spread of rapeseed meal is 121 yuan, up 10 yuan; the spot oil - meal ratio is 2.86, up 0.017; the main contract oil - meal ratio is 2.77, up 0.015; the spot soybean - rapeseed meal spread is 410 yuan, down 20 yuan; the 2601 spread is 523 yuan, down 15 yuan [1]. 生猪 industry - **Futures indicators**: The main contract basis is - 550 yuan, down 105 yuan; the price of live - hog 2511 is 13160 yuan/ton, down 115 yuan; the price of live - hog 2601 is 13680 yuan/ton, down 65 yuan; the 11 - 1 spread is - 520 yuan, down 50 yuan; the main contract position is 84857, up 3795 [3]. - **Spot prices**: The prices in Henan, Shandong, Liaoning, Guangdong, Hunan, and Hebei have all decreased to varying degrees [3]. - **Spot indicators**: The daily slaughter volume of sample points is 149204, up 1122; the weekly white - strip price is 20.10 yuan, unchanged; the weekly piglet price is 26.00 yuan/kg, unchanged; the weekly sow price is 32.51 yuan, unchanged; the weekly slaughter weight is 128.32 kg, up 0.1 kg; the weekly self - breeding profit is 17 yuan/head, down 35.8 yuan; the weekly purchased - piglet breeding profit is - 162 yuan, down 35.7 yuan; the monthly fertile sow inventory is 40420000 heads, down 10000 heads [3]. 油脂 industry - **Soybean oil**: The futures price of Y2601 is 8122 yuan, up 46 yuan; the basis is 238 yuan, up 4 yuan; the spot basis in Jiangsu in September is 01 + 210; the warehouse receipt is 24544, unchanged [7]. - **Palm oil**: The current price of 24 - degree palm oil in Guangdong is 9400 yuan, up 80 yuan; the futures price of P2601 is 9252 yuan, up 78 yuan; the basis is 148 yuan, up 2 yuan; the spot basis in Guangdong in September is 01 + 20; the disk import cost in Guangzhou Port in September is 9679.8 yuan, up 39.2 yuan; the disk import profit is - 428 yuan, up 39 yuan; the warehouse receipt is 1570, unchanged [7]. - **Rapeseed oil**: The current price of Grade 4 rapeseed oil in Jiangsu is 10060 yuan, up 120 yuan; the futures price of Ol601 is 9586 yuan, up 75 yuan; the basis is 474 yuan, up 45 yuan; the spot basis in Jiangsu in September is 01 + 200; the warehouse receipt is 8202, unchanged [7]. - **Spreads**: The 01 - 05 spread of soybean oil is 296 yuan, down 4 yuan; the 01 - 05 spread of palm oil is 230 yuan, down 18 yuan; the 01 - 05 spread of rapeseed oil is 467 yuan, up 78 yuan; the spot soybean - palm oil spread is - 740 yuan, down 30 yuan; the 2601 soybean - palm oil spread is - 1064 yuan, down 18 yuan; the spot rapeseed - soybean oil spread is 1400 yuan, up 70 yuan; the 2601 rapeseed - soybean oil spread is 1635 yuan, up 111 yuan [7]. 玉米 industry - **Corn**: The price of corn 2511 at Jinzhou Port's flat - hatch price is 2166 yuan/ton, down 1 yuan; the basis is 144 yuan, up 1 yuan; the 11 - 3 spread is - 2 yuan, up 3 yuan; the Shekou bulk grain price is 2420 yuan/ton, unchanged; the north - south trade profit is 39 yuan, unchanged; the CIF price is 1941 yuan, down 2 yuan; the import profit is 479 yuan, up 2 yuan; the number of remaining vehicles at Shandong deep - processing enterprises in the morning is 1003, up 379; the position is 1573720, up 2703; the warehouse receipt is 43975, up 232 [8]. - **Corn starch**: The price of corn starch 2511 is 2443 yuan, unchanged; the spot price in Changchun is 2560 yuan, unchanged; the spot price in Weifang is 2800 yuan, unchanged; the basis is 117 yuan, unchanged; the 11 - 3 spread is - 32 yuan, up 10 yuan; the starch - corn futures spread is 277 yuan, up 1 yuan; the Shandong starch profit is - 33 yuan, up 3 yuan; the position is 335166, up 8120; the warehouse receipt is 9217, down 21 [8]. 白糖 industry - **Futures market**: The price of sugar 2601 is 5547 yuan/ton, down 2 yuan; the price of sugar 2605 is 5525 yuan/ton, down 2 yuan; the ICE raw sugar main contract is 15.88 cents/pound, down 0.08 cents; the 1 - 5 spread is 23 yuan/ton, unchanged; the main contract position is 385623, up 4016; the warehouse receipt is 11268, down 57; the effective forecast is 0, unchanged [12]. - **Spot market**: The price in Nanning is 5890 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price in Kunming is 5865 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan; the Nanning basis is 366 yuan, up 2 yuan; the Kunming basis is 341 yuan, up 12 yuan; the imported Brazilian sugar (within quota) is 4418 yuan, up 20 yuan; the imported Brazilian sugar (out - of - quota) is 5611 yuan, up 26 yuan; the price difference between imported Brazilian sugar (within quota) and Nanning is - 1472 yuan, up 20 yuan; the price difference between imported Brazilian sugar (out - of - quota) and Nanning is - 279 yuan, up 26 yuan [12]. - **Industry situation**: The cumulative national sugar production is 1116.21 million tons, up 119.89 million tons; the cumulative national sugar sales is 1000.00 million tons, up 114.00 million tons; the cumulative sugar production in Guangxi is 646.50 million tons, up 28.36 million tons; the monthly sugar sales in Guangxi is 26.02 million tons, down 9.69 million tons; the cumulative national sugar sales rate is 89.60%, up 0.66%; the cumulative sugar sales rate in Guangxi is 89.04%, up 0.62%; the national industrial inventory is 116.00 million tons, up 5.78 million tons; the sugar industrial inventory in Guangxi is 70.87 million tons, down 1.61 million tons; the sugar industrial inventory in Yunnan is 33.65 million tons, up 7.07 million tons; the sugar import is 13.00 million tons, up 8.00 million tons [12]. cotton industry - **Futures market**: The price of cotton 2605 is 13860 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan; the price of cotton 2601 is 13882 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan; the ICE US cotton main contract is 67.67 cents/pound, up 0.85 cents; the 5 - 1 spread is - 35 yuan/ton, unchanged; the main contract position is 492631, down 5664; the warehouse receipt is 4759, down 140; the effective forecast is 12, up 10 [14]. - **Spot market**: The arrival price of Xinjiang 3128B cotton is 15214 yuan, up 47 yuan; the CC Index 3128B is 15300 yuan, up 51 yuan; the FC Index M 1% is 13388 yuan/ton, unchanged; the difference between 3128B and the 01 contract is 1354 yuan, up 37 yuan; the difference between 3128B and the 05 contract is 1319 yuan, up 37 yuan; the difference between CC Index 3128B and FC Index M 1% is 1912 yuan, up 51 yuan [14]. - **Industry situation**: The industrial inventory is 148.17 million tons, down 33.85 million tons; the industrial inventory is 89.23 million tons, down 3.19 million tons; the import volume is 5.00 million tons, up 2.00 million tons; the bonded area inventory is 29.10 million tons, up 0.20 million tons; the year - on - year inventory of the textile industry is - 0.20%, down 1.00%; the yarn inventory days is 26.58 days, down 0.65 days; the grey fabric inventory days is 33.87 days, down 1.31 days; the cotton outbound shipping volume is 53.46 million tons, up 9.86 million tons; the immediate processing profit of spinning enterprises C32s is - 2055.00 yuan/ton, down 36.10 yuan; the retail sales of clothing, shoes, hats, and knitted textiles is 1045.00 billion yuan, up 83.70 billion yuan; the year - on - year monthly retail sales of clothing, shoes, hats, and knitted textiles is 3.10%, up 1.30%; the export value of textile yarns, fabrics, and products is 123.93 billion US dollars, up 7.89 billion US dollars; the year - on - year monthly export value of textile yarns, fabrics, and products is 1.43%, up 0.91%; the export value of clothing and clothing accessories is 141.46 billion US dollars, down 10.16 billion US dollars; the year - on - year export value of clothing and clothing accessories is - 10.08%, down 9.47% [14]. egg industry - **Futures indicators**: The price of the egg 11 contract is 3113 yuan/500KG, down 30 yuan; the price of the egg 10 contract is 3090 yuan/500KG, down 36 yuan; the 11 - 10 spread is 23 yuan, up 6 yuan [17]. - **Spot indicators**: The egg - producing area price is 3.76 yuan/jin, up 0.10 yuan; the basis is 130 yuan/500KG, up 130 yuan; the egg - chick price is 2.60 yuan/feather, down 0.40 yuan; the culled - hen price is 4.61 yuan/jin, down 0.01 yuan; the egg - feed ratio is 2.50, up 0.07; the breeding profit is - 17.89 yuan/feather, up 4.71 yuan [17].

Market Overview - The futures market shows a bullish sentiment with 56 contracts rising and 23 contracts falling, indicating increased trading activity in upward-moving commodities [2] - Significant price increases were observed in coking coal (+5.84%), coke (+4.24%), and glass (+3.69%), driven by supply and demand dynamics [5][6] - Conversely, commodities like LPG and red dates experienced notable declines, suggesting increased bearish pressure or negative fundamental factors [6] Capital Flow - The highest capital inflows were seen in coking coal (1.163 billion), followed by rapeseed oil (1.008 billion) and 30-year government bonds (462 million), indicating strong interest from major funds [8] - Major capital outflows were recorded in the CSI 300 (-2.448 billion) and Shanghai Composite 50 (-1.230 billion), reflecting a withdrawal of funds from these indices [8] Open Interest Changes - Significant increases in open interest were noted in rapeseed oil (+18.25%) and eggs (+10.72%), suggesting new capital entering these markets and heightened trading activity [10] - Conversely, substantial decreases in open interest were observed in styrene (-15.25%) and crude oil (-18.84%), indicating potential exits of major funds from these commodities [10] Key Events - OPEC+ is set to discuss capacity updates in a meeting scheduled for September 18-19, aiming to establish a mechanism for assessing each member's maximum sustainable oil production capacity [11] - Domestic soybean crushing volumes have rebounded, with the average operating rate of oil mills reaching 64.99%, indicating strong processing activity [12] Future Outlook - The market anticipates potential interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve, with expectations of at least three rate cuts before the end of 2025, which could influence commodity prices positively [16] - The upcoming release of initial jobless claims data is expected to provide further insights into the labor market, which may impact Fed policy decisions [17] Commodity-Specific Insights - The main contract for polysilicon has seen a slight increase, but ongoing inventory pressures and price constraints remain a concern [19] - The glass market is expected to continue its short-term upward trend, with current supply-demand dynamics and policy expectations playing a crucial role [20] - Coking coal prices are anticipated to gradually rise, supported by government policies aimed at stabilizing prices and managing supply [21][22]

Core Viewpoint - Agriculture is a fundamental industry in China, currently experiencing a phase of price decline and capital exit, which presents a unique investment opportunity due to its low valuation and the need to protect farmers' income [1] Group 1: Swine Industry - The swine industry is undergoing significant policy transformation aimed at capacity regulation, with a focus on protecting farmers' rights and encouraging innovation [2] - The Ministry of Agriculture and the National Development and Reform Commission will hold a meeting with 25 swine enterprises to implement capacity control measures [2] - The profitability of listed swine companies has shown substantial growth, and with the anticipated recovery in pork prices, the industry's profit center is expected to stabilize [2] - Companies with cost advantages and those that integrate farmers into their operations are likely to enjoy excess profits and valuation premiums [2] Group 2: Poultry Industry - The white feather chicken industry is facing a persistent contradiction of high capacity and weak consumption, leading to a reduction in breeding capacity [3] - Integrated enterprises and contract farming businesses are expected to increase their market share as they adapt to the changing landscape [3] - Focus on companies with improving return on equity (ROE) and sustainability, particularly quality imported breeding stock leaders and full-chain leaders [3] Group 3: Pet Industry - The pet industry is witnessing a rise in sales, with a notable increase in the concentration of leading brands [4] - The competitive landscape among top brands is intensifying, and while the overall industry concentration remains low, the leading brands are solidifying their positions [4] - The uncertainty surrounding tariffs has impacted exports, but domestic sales trends remain stable, with leading companies expected to maintain high growth rates [4] Group 4: Agricultural Products - The USDA's September report is bearish, indicating an increase in soybean planting area but a decrease in yield expectations [5][6] - The report suggests structural adjustments in demand and higher-than-expected carryover stocks, although trade easing expectations are supporting soybean prices [6] - The upcoming US-China trade negotiations are crucial, focusing on tariffs and export controls, which could influence market dynamics [6]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Viewpoints - The swine industry is undergoing significant policy transformation, focusing on capacity regulation and protecting farmers' rights while promoting innovation [5][6] - The latest pig price is 13.52 CNY/kg, with a slight decrease of 0.35 CNY/kg from the previous period, indicating potential short-term price declines due to policy-driven weight reductions [5][15] - The report suggests that if pig prices continue to fall, further market support and capacity control measures may be implemented [5][15] - The overall profitability of listed pig companies has shown significant growth, and with the expected recovery in pig prices and declining costs, profitability is anticipated to remain strong [6][15] Summary by Sections 1. Swine Industry - The latest pig price is 13.52 CNY/kg, with an average weight of 128.32 kg and a 15 kg piglet price of 394 CNY/head [5][15] - The Ministry of Agriculture will hold a meeting with 25 major pig companies to discuss capacity regulation measures [6][15] - Future growth stocks will focus on technological innovation and farmer interests, with companies like DeKang Agriculture and leading pig farming companies such as Muyuan and Wens recommended for investment [6][15] 2. Poultry Industry - The chicken industry faces a "high capacity, weak consumption" contradiction, with the latest chick price at 3.15 CNY/bird and broiler price at 3.43 CNY/kg [7][16] - The report highlights the importance of integrated enterprises and contract farming to increase market share [7][16] - Key investment targets include high-quality imported breeding stock leaders and full-chain leaders like Yisheng and Shengnong Development [7][16] 3. Feed Industry - The report recommends Haida Group due to improved management and increased capacity utilization, expecting significant growth [8][17] - The prices of various fish species have shown mixed trends, with some experiencing declines [8][17] 4. Pet Industry - The pet industry shows a significant increase in sales growth compared to July, with leading brands maintaining strong positions [9][20] - The competitive landscape is characterized by four leading brands, with potential risks for those unable to keep pace with growth [10][22] - The report emphasizes the importance of domestic brands like Guibao and Zhongchong, which are expected to perform well in the future [10][22] 5. Agricultural Products - The USDA's September report is bearish, with an increase in soybean planting area and a decrease in yield expectations [11][23] - The report highlights the importance of monitoring US-China trade negotiations and their impact on agricultural prices [11][23] - The agricultural sector is viewed as undervalued, with potential for significant returns as the industry transitions through various stages of recovery [11][23] 6. Market and Price Situation - The agricultural index increased by 4.81% over the past week, with the livestock sector performing particularly well [24][29] - The report notes that the CPI has been affected by food prices, which have seen a significant decline [50]

Group 1: Swine Industry - The average selling price of external three-yuan pigs in China on September 14 was 13.27 yuan/kg, a week-on-week decrease of 2.5% [1] - The average selling price of weaned piglets was 294 yuan/head, down 29 yuan/head week-on-week, marking a new low for the year [1] - The average selling price of two-yuan sows was 1595 yuan/head, down 1 yuan/head week-on-week, also a new low for the year [1] - The weak prices of piglets and sows reflect the industry's pessimistic expectations for pig prices in 2026 [1] - The expectation of upgraded capacity regulation in the industry is gaining traction, emphasizing the importance of the "anti-involution" process [2] - The industry is expected to enter a phase of stable and high-quality development, with improved profitability for leading pig companies [2] Group 2: Poultry Industry - The average selling price of white feather broiler chicks was 3.26 yuan/chick, down 1.21% week-on-week [3] - The average selling price of white feather broiler meat was 3.45 yuan/kg, down 1.15% week-on-week [3] - The average selling price of chicken meat cuts was 8687.95 yuan/ton, down 0.09% week-on-week [3] - The seasonal rebound in July-August has ended, with continued ample supply of white chickens expected to be a theme for 2025 [3] - The average selling price of Qingjiao Ma chicken was 5.75 yuan, down 0.3% week-on-week, maintaining a high level for the year [3] - The industry turned profitable in August, with further profit increases expected in September, suggesting a focus on companies' third-quarter performance [3] Group 3: Pet Food Industry - The total sales of pet food on platforms like Tmall, JD, and Douyin in August reached 2.34 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 8% and a month-on-month increase of 19% [4] - Cumulative sales from January to August 2025 reached 19.21 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 11% [4] - Leading domestic brands showed significant growth, with Blue's, Honest Bite, and Fresh Lang increasing by 42%, 33%, and 27% year-on-year, respectively [4] - Overseas leading brands also saw growth, with Pro Plan, Royal Canin, and Orijen increasing by 45%, 28%, and 17% year-on-year, respectively [4]

Group 1: Swine Industry - The average price of live pigs in China on September 12 was 13.35 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.44 yuan/kg week-on-week, marking a new low for the year [1][2] - The average weight of pigs for slaughter increased slightly to 128.32 kg as of the week ending September 11, with a week-on-week increase of 0.09 kg [1][2] - Short-term forecasts indicate an increase in pig supply from sample enterprises, with expected increases of 1.29%, 4.11%, and 3.92% respectively, leading to continued pressure on pig prices [3] Group 2: Long-term Outlook - Recent policies emphasize capacity regulation, which is expected to accelerate the elimination of inefficient production capacity in the industry, potentially raising the long-term price level of pigs [3] - Low-cost, high-quality pig farming companies are anticipated to gain excess returns as the industry adjusts [3] Group 3: Beef Industry - The price of calves and fattening bulls remained stable, with prices at 32.44 yuan/kg and 25.97 yuan/kg respectively as of September 12, showing a year-to-date increase of 35% and 10% [4] - The beef market is expected to tighten in the medium to long term, with a potential upward cycle anticipated between 2026 and 2027 [4] Group 4: Dairy Industry - Raw milk prices have been in a downward trend since late 2021, reaching 3.03 yuan/kg as of September 5, 2025, a cumulative decline of 31% from peak levels [5] - The ongoing losses in the dairy industry are leading to a reduction in production capacity, which may stabilize raw milk prices in the future [5] Group 5: Poultry Industry - The price of white feather broilers decreased to 7.02 yuan/kg as of September 12, with a week-on-week decline of 0.20 yuan/kg due to increased supply [6] - Egg prices rebounded to an average of 7.15 yuan/kg from September 8-12, with a week-on-week increase of 0.62 yuan/kg, driven by pre-festival stocking [6] Group 6: Agricultural Products - Soybean meal futures and spot prices showed mixed trends, with futures at 3079 yuan/ton and spot prices at 3060 yuan/ton as of September 12 [7] - The USDA's supply and demand report slightly adjusted the forecast for U.S. soybean planting area and ending stocks, indicating ongoing market dynamics [7]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news is that the livestock sector is experiencing a positive trend due to capacity regulation policies, leading to a rise in related stocks and ETFs [1] - The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, along with the National Development and Reform Commission, is holding a meeting on September 16 to discuss pig production capacity regulation with 25 companies, including major players like Muyuan, Wens, and New Hope [1] - Recent policies aimed at controlling new production capacity are helping the industry move away from low-price competition, guiding pig prices into a reasonable profit range [1] Group 2 - The livestock ETF is currently trading at a low price-to-earnings ratio (PE-TTM) of 14.95, which is below 80.76% of the time over the past three years, indicating a high safety margin [2] - There is potential for the livestock sector to experience a rebound if funds shift from high-performing technology stocks to lower-valued sectors [2]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" recommendation for several companies in the steel sector, including Hualing Steel, Baosteel, Nanjing Steel, Xianglou New Materials, CITIC Special Steel, Yongjin Co., Ltd., Jiuli Special Materials, Youfa Group, and Wujin Stainless Steel [3]. Core Viewpoints - The report indicates that pig iron production has rebounded to high levels, with daily production exceeding 2.4 million tons. Steel production has slightly decreased, but inventory accumulation has narrowed, suggesting a recovery in demand, although year-on-year demand remains weak. Steel profits are fluctuating around the breakeven point [2][3]. - The report highlights that the long-term focus will be on capacity regulation, which is expected to be more precise this time, promoting the survival of the fittest among steel companies. The profitability of steel enterprises is anticipated to recover as new iron ore capacities are gradually released [2][3]. Price Trends - As of September 12, 2025, steel prices showed mixed trends: rebar (20mm HRB400) at 3,210 CNY/ton (down 50 CNY), high line (8.0mm) at 3,360 CNY/ton (down 40 CNY), hot-rolled (3.0mm) at 3,450 CNY/ton (up 30 CNY), cold-rolled (1.0mm) at 3,800 CNY/ton (unchanged), and medium plate (20mm) at 3,460 CNY/ton (unchanged) [1][9][10]. Production and Inventory - As of September 12, 2025, the total production of five major steel products was 8.57 million tons, a decrease of 34,100 tons week-on-week. The total inventory of these products increased by 174,100 tons to 10.9391 million tons [2][5]. - The apparent consumption of rebar was estimated at 1.9807 million tons, down 40,000 tons week-on-week, while the average daily transaction volume of construction steel was 103,100 tons, up 6.32% week-on-week [2][5]. Profitability - The report estimates that the gross profit margins for rebar, hot-rolled, and cold-rolled steel have changed by -31 CNY/ton, +12 CNY/ton, and -8 CNY/ton respectively compared to the previous week. The gross profit margin for electric arc furnace steel decreased by 11 CNY/ton [1][2]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on the following companies: 1. General Steel Sector: Hualing Steel, Baosteel, Nanjing Steel 2. Special Steel Sector: Xianglou New Materials, CITIC Special Steel, Yongjin Co., Ltd. 3. Pipe Materials: Jiuli Special Materials, Youfa Group, Wujin Stainless Steel 4. High-Temperature Alloy: Fushun Special Steel [2][3].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery industry [1][48]. Core Views - The SW agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery industry slightly outperformed the CSI 300 index, rising by 4.16% from August 29, 2025, to September 11, 2025, exceeding the index by approximately 2.28 percentage points [2][9]. - Most sub-sectors recorded positive returns, with only animal health showing a negative return of -2.65%. The sectors of breeding, feed, fishery, agricultural product processing, and planting increased by 6.23%, 5.93%, 3.31%, 1.37%, and 0.45%, respectively [12][16]. - The overall price-to-book (PB) ratio for the industry is approximately 3.02 times, indicating a recovery in valuation, yet it remains at a relatively low historical level, around the 67.6 percentile since 2006 [19][21]. Summary by Sections Market Review - The SW agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery industry outperformed the CSI 300 index during the reporting period [9]. - Most sub-sectors achieved positive returns, with a notable performance in breeding and feed sectors [12][16]. - Approximately 62% of stocks in the industry recorded positive returns [13]. Important Industry Data - **Pig Farming**: The average price of external three yuan pigs decreased from 13.69 yuan/kg to 13.31 yuan/kg during the reporting period. The profit for self-bred pigs is 16.84 yuan/head, while the profit for purchased piglets is -161.93 yuan/head [22][26]. - **Chicken Farming**: The average price for meat chicken chicks is 3.25 yuan/chick, and for white feathered chickens, it is 7.02 yuan/kg, both showing slight declines [28][33]. - **Feed Costs**: As of September 11, 2025, corn prices are at 2365.49 yuan/ton, and soybean meal prices are at 3060 yuan/ton, with slight fluctuations noted [24][25]. Industry News - A meeting on pig production capacity regulation is scheduled for September 16, 2025, involving 25 leading companies to discuss current production conditions and future regulatory measures [37][38]. Company Insights - Key companies to watch include Muyuan Foods (002714), Wens Foodstuff Group (300498), and others, focusing on their market positions and growth potential in the current environment [49].

Report Industry Investment Ratings The provided text does not contain any information regarding the report industry investment ratings. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The US consumer price increase exceeded expectations in August, but the market still maintains the expectation of interest rate cuts, and the US dollar index is weakening [1][20]. - Driven by the better - than - expected orders of US stock Oracle, domestic AI stocks led a strong rebound, but the market is expected to continue in a tug - of - war [2]. - The bond market rally caused by new bond issuance is short - term, and the market adjustment is not over. It is recommended to have a bearish view on the bond market in September [3][27]. - The market is concerned about the USDA monthly supply - demand report on Friday. CONAB has raised the production and export forecasts of Brazilian soybeans, and there is a possibility of a transition from ENSO neutral to La Nina [4]. - Steel prices are expected to be in a weak shock pattern in the near future due to inventory accumulation and lower - than - expected apparent demand [5]. - For zinc, maintain a positive arbitrage strategy before the overseas inventory truly bottoms out, and the short - selling logic of SHFE zinc may be realized through the rise of LME zinc [6]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Financial News and Comments 1.1 Macro Strategy (Gold) - The European Central Bank kept interest rates unchanged, in line with expectations. The US initial jobless claims reached a new high since October 23, 2021, and the CPI in August rebounded as expected [13][14][15]. - Short - term gold prices lack the impetus to break through, and attention should be paid to the risk of correction [16]. 1.2 Macro Strategy (Foreign Exchange Futures - US Dollar Index) - The US Treasury Secretary plans to add candidates to the Fed Chair list. The European Central Bank maintained interest rates, and the US CPI rose in August [17][18][19]. - The US dollar index is expected to continue to decline as the market maintains the interest rate cut expectation despite the rise in CPI [20][21]. 1.3 Macro Strategy (Stock Index Futures) - There are rumors that Mexico may impose a 50% tariff on Chinese - exported cars. The State Council approved 10 pilot projects for factor market - oriented reform [22][23]. - Domestic AI stocks led a rebound, but the market is expected to be in a tug - of - war. It is recommended to pay attention to trading volume changes and control long positions [2][23][24]. 1.4 Macro Strategy (US Stock Index Futures) - The US CPI in August was basically in line with expectations. The labor market supports the Fed to continue interest rate cuts, and the market has fully priced in three interest rate cuts this year [25]. - US stocks are expected to be volatile and bullish under the interest rate cut expectation, but market volatility may increase [25]. 1.5 Macro Strategy (Treasury Bond Futures) - The central bank conducted 292 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations. A new 7 - year bond will be issued [26]. - The bond market rally due to new bond issuance is short - term. The market adjustment is not over. It is recommended to have a bearish view on the bond market in September [3][27][28]. 2. Commodity News and Comments 2.1 Agricultural Products (Soybean Meal) - CONAB raised the production and export forecasts of Brazilian soybeans. Analysts expect the NOPA member soybean crushing volume in August to be 182.857 million bushels, and the import soybean auction was fully sold [29][30][31]. - The soybean meal futures price is expected to be volatile. Attention should be paid to the USDA monthly supply - demand report on Friday [32]. 2.2 Agricultural Products (Soybean Oil/Rapeseed Oil/Palm Oil) - The SPPOMA data shows that the palm oil production in Malaysia from September 1 - 10 decreased by 3.17% month - on - month [33]. - The uncertainty in the oil market has increased. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term [33]. 2.3 Agricultural Products (Corn Starch) - The operating rates of the corrugated paper and boxboard paper industries increased, while the operating rates of the starch sugar industry decreased [34][35]. - In addition to weak supply and demand, regional price differences are also unfavorable to the rice - flour price difference in the short term [36]. 2.4 Agricultural Products (Red Dates) - The red date prices in the Hebei Cuierzhuang market were stable. The futures price of the main contract CJ601 rose by 2.14% [36][37]. - Red date prices are expected to be volatile. It is recommended to wait and see and pay attention to the weather in the producing areas and pre - festival replenishment [37]. 2.5 Agricultural Products (Corn) - The consumption of corn in deep - processing enterprises increased slightly, and the raw material inventory decreased. The price of new corn in North China is weakening, while that in the Northeast remains strong [38]. - It is recommended to maintain a bearish view on corn in the medium term [39]. 2.6 Agricultural Products (Pigs) - The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs plans to hold a symposium on pig production capacity regulation. Some enterprises plan to reduce production [39]. - It is recommended to short near - month contracts on rallies and have a bullish view on far - month contracts [40]. 2.7 Black Metals (Steam Coal) - The price of steam coal in the northern port market remained stable on September 11. The coal price is expected to continue to be weak due to weak thermal power demand and no new production control policies [41]. - The steam coal price is expected to continue to be weak [42]. 2.8 Black Metals (Iron Ore) - Anglo American and Teck Resources will merge equally. The iron ore price is in a volatile market, and the raw material end has short - term support but faces upward pressure [43]. - Attention should be paid to the peak season in September - October and the pressure on steel mills to cut production [44]. 2.9 Black Metals (Rebar/Hot - Rolled Coil) - The inventory of the five major steel products increased by 139,100 tons week - on - week. Steel prices are expected to be in a weak shock pattern in the near future [47]. - It is recommended to have a bearish view on steel prices in the short term [48]. 2.10 Non - ferrous Metals (Copper) - Vale plans to increase copper production through self - development. Panama plans to evaluate the restart of First Quantum's copper mine. Peru's copper production in July increased by 2% year - on - year [49][50][51]. - The copper price is expected to be volatile and bullish in the short term. It is recommended to have a bullish strategy on the single - side and wait and see on the arbitrage [52]. 2.11 Non - ferrous Metals (Polysilicon) - Shandong's new energy mechanism electricity price bidding results were announced. Polysilicon production restrictions started in September. The price increase of upstream products has not been smoothly transmitted to the terminal, and the photovoltaic terminal demand may decline [53][54]. - The futures price is expected to fluctuate greatly. It is recommended to sell out - of - the - money call options after a rebound and pay attention to the 11 - 12 reverse arbitrage opportunity at about - 2000 yuan/ton [55]. 2.12 Non - ferrous Metals (Industrial Silicon) - Yunnan's 100,000 - ton industrial silicon project passed the energy - saving review. The price of industrial silicon is expected to be in the range of 8200 - 9200 yuan/ton in the short term [56][57]. - It is recommended to pay attention to the range - trading opportunities [57]. 2.13 Non - ferrous Metals (Lead) - The LME lead 0 - 3 spread was at a deep discount, and the domestic lead social inventory decreased slightly. The lead price is expected to be volatile and weak [58]. - It is recommended to wait and see on the single - side and pay attention to the domestic - foreign positive arbitrage opportunity before delivery [58]. 2.14 Non - ferrous Metals (Zinc) - The LME zinc 0 - 3 spread was at a premium, and the domestic zinc inventory increased. Maintain a positive arbitrage strategy before the overseas inventory truly bottoms out [59][60]. - It is recommended to wait and see on the single - side, pay attention to the medium - term positive arbitrage opportunity, and maintain a positive arbitrage strategy before the overseas inventory bottoms out [60]. 2.15 Non - ferrous Metals (Nickel) - Weiming Shengqing sold 3,526 tons of high - purity nickel plates in the first half of the year. The global nickel inventory is increasing, and the nickel price is expected to be volatile in the short term [61]. - It is recommended to conduct light - position trading in the range [62]. 2.16 Non - ferrous Metals (Lithium Carbonate) - CATL's Jiaxiaowo lithium mine plans to resume production. The battery export in August decreased by 2.6% month - on - month. The market may quickly price in the resumption of production, but the price decline is limited before the actual resumption [63][64][65]. - It is recommended to switch to a bearish view, be cautious about short - selling in the short term, and pay attention to the opportunity of short - selling on rallies and reverse arbitrage in the medium term [66]. 2.17 Energy and Chemicals (Liquefied Petroleum Gas) - The weekly commercial volume of domestic LPG increased, and the inventory increased. The LPG market has limited drivers, and it is recommended to wait and see in the short term [67][68][69]. 2.18 Energy and Chemicals (Carbon Emissions) - The CEA closing price on September 11 was 63.28 yuan/ton, down 0.42%. The CEA price is expected to be volatile and weak in the short term [70]. - The CEA price has room to fall in the short term [71]. 2.19 Energy and Chemicals (Caustic Soda) - The price of liquid caustic soda in Shandong remained stable. The supply is stable, and the demand is moderate. The price may decline in the future [72][73]. - The increase of caustic soda spot price may be near the end, and the downward space of the futures price is limited [73]. 2.20 Energy and Chemicals (Pulp) - The import pulp spot market was stable. The pulp market is expected to be weak and volatile due to poor fundamentals [74][75][76]. 2.21 Energy and Chemicals (PVC) - The domestic PVC powder market price was slightly adjusted. The PVC market is under short - term pressure, but the downward space is limited [77]. 2.22 Energy and Chemicals (PX) - The PX price was stable. The PX supply - demand is expected to be in a de - stocking pattern in the medium - long term. It is recommended to try positive arbitrage between months [78][79][80]. 2.23 Energy and Chemicals (PTA) - The terminal operating rates in Jiangsu and Zhejiang remained stable. The PTA price is expected to be volatile and the upward space is limited [81][82][83]. 2.24 Energy and Chemicals (Styrene) - The weekly production of styrene decreased. The short - term port inventory accumulation pressure of styrene has been alleviated, and the 2510 contract is in a volatile state [84][85]. 2.25 Energy and Chemicals (Bottle Chips) - The export quotes of bottle chip factories were mostly stable. The downstream demand is gradually transitioning to the off - season, and the processing fee is under pressure [87][88]. 2.26 Energy and Chemicals (Soda Ash) - The soda ash market in Shahe was oscillating. The soda ash price is expected to be short - term weak, and it is recommended to short on rallies [89][90]. 2.27 Energy and Chemicals (Float Glass) - The float glass price in the Shahe market decreased slightly. It is recommended to pay attention to the arbitrage opportunity of going long on FG2601 and short on SA2601 [91][92]. 2.28 Shipping Index (Container Freight Rate) - CMA CGM will not impose the "301 surcharge". The container freight rate is expected to continue to decline, and the 10 - contract still has downward space [93].