煤炭周报 资料来源：Wind，民生证券研究院预测;（注：股价为 2025 年 5 月 9 日收盘价） 推荐 维持评级 [Table_Author] 分析师 周泰 执业证书： S0100521110009 节后市场短期调整，煤价筑底逻辑未变 2025 年 05 月 10 日 ➢ 假期港口累库，需求淡季下煤价短期调整，筑底逻辑未变。关税冲突以来， 实体用电需求下降，叠加电煤淡季和五一假期影响，电厂日耗同环比下降，同时 伴随大秦线检修结束，假期期间日运量已恢复至 120 万吨水平，港口加速累库， 终端库存较高且采购意愿偏弱，在此影响下，节后煤价向下调整，5 月 9 日报收 635 元/吨。展望后市，电煤需求仍弱势运行，非电化工耗煤需求近两周环比增幅 明显，持续性有待观察，因目前港口库存高企，煤价向上动力不足；但同时供给 端来看，持续跌价压力或通过市场机制倒逼高成本煤矿减产，4 月我国煤炭进口 量同环比分别减少 743/91 万吨，当前进口煤仍倒挂较多，预计后续进口量或延 续下滑趋势，现货价和长协价持续倒挂下，港口长协合理区间下限 570 元/吨的 价格也将对现货煤价形成支撑，因此煤价下行压力亦有限。当前港口供需矛盾 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content Core Viewpoints of the Report - Macroeconomically, the global manufacturing PMI has been in the contraction zone for two consecutive months, increasing global economic downward pressure. The upcoming Sino - US economic and trade talks may bring new breakthroughs in tariff conflicts, which could affect market sentiment. Operationally, silicon - manganese should be treated as a running market, with the sector under pressure and auxiliary materials stopping their decline, while the significant reduction in manganese ore port inventory provides cost support [6]. - Overseas, the EU may propose to buy $56 billion worth of US products to end the trade war, certain auto parts from Canada and Mexico are exempt from a 25% tariff, and the EU plans to stop importing Russian energy by 2027 [6]. - In terms of supply and demand, supply - side production is at a loss, dampening production enthusiasm. The port inventory of imported manganese ore has decreased by 9.47% this period, but the arrival volume of manganese ore in May is expected to increase. Downstream hot - metal production shows signs of peaking and falling, and price fluctuations may intensify after the decline in demand. The spot production profit in Inner Mongolia is - 230 yuan/ton, and - 410 yuan/ton in Ningxia. Attention should be paid to the steel mills' steel procurement in May [6]. - Technically, the weekly K - line of the manganese - silicon main contract is below the 60 - day moving average, indicating a bearish weekly trend [6]. Summary by Directory 1. Weekly Key Points Summary - Macroeconomic aspect: The global manufacturing PMI in April was below 50% for two consecutive months, increasing global economic downward pressure. The Sino - US economic and trade talks from May 9 - 12 may bring new changes to tariff conflicts [6]. - Overseas aspect: The EU may buy $56 billion of US products, auto parts from Canada and Mexico are tariff - exempt, and the EU plans to stop importing Russian energy by 2027 [6]. - Supply - demand aspect: Supply - side production is unprofitable, with low production enthusiasm. Manganese ore port inventory decreased by 9.47% this period, but the arrival volume in May is expected to increase. Downstream hot - metal production may peak and fall. Inner Mongolia's spot production profit is - 230 yuan/ton, and Ningxia's is - 410 yuan/ton. Steel mills' May steel procurement should be monitored [6]. - Technical aspect: The weekly K - line of the manganese - silicon main contract is below the 60 - day moving average, showing a bearish weekly trend [6]. - Strategy suggestion: The sector is under pressure macroeconomically, while auxiliary materials stop falling. The significant reduction in manganese ore port inventory provides cost support. Silicon - manganese should be treated as a running market [6]. 2. Futures and Spot Market Futures Market - As of May 9, the silicon - manganese futures contract open interest was 635,300 lots, a net increase of 22,200 lots. The monthly spread was 68, a decrease of 10 [12]. - As of May 9, the manganese - silicon warehouse receipt quantity was 119,697, a decrease of 4,519. The price difference between the manganese - silicon and ferrosilicon main contracts was 276, an increase of 126 [16]. Spot Market - As of May 9, the average ex - factory price of silicon - manganese in Inner Mongolia was 5,550 yuan/ton, a decrease of 50 yuan/ton. The basis was - 208 yuan/ton, a decrease of 150 [22]. 3. Industrial Chain Situation Supply and Inventory - This week (May 8), the weekly demand for silicon - manganese in five major steel grades (70%) was 125,861 tons, a decrease of 1.83% from last week. The national silicon - manganese production (99%) was 172,025 tons, a decrease of 5.90% from last week. The operating rate of 187 independent silicon - manganese enterprises was 37.53%, a decrease of 3.21% from last week, and the daily average output was 24,575 tons, a decrease of 1,540 tons [26]. - As of May 8, the inventory of 63 independent silicon - manganese enterprises (accounting for 79.77% of the national capacity) was 207,100 tons, an increase of 25,300 tons [29]. Upstream - As of May 8, the price of South African manganese ore in Tianjin Port was 32 yuan/ton - degree, unchanged from the previous period, and the price of Australian manganese ore was 40 yuan/ton - degree, an increase of 3 yuan/ton - degree [35]. - As of May 6, the electricity price for silicon - manganese and ferrosilicon in Ningxia was 0.41 yuan/kWh, a decrease of 0.01 yuan/kWh, and in Inner Mongolia, it was 0.42 yuan/kWh, unchanged [35]. - As of April 25, 2025, the port inventory of imported manganese ore was 3.671 million tons, a decrease of 384,000 tons. The global shipment volume of South African manganese ore was 641,100 tons, an increase of 41.83% from last week and 30.91% from the same period last year. The global shipment volume of Gabonese manganese ore was 60,700 tons, a decrease of 61.04% from last week and 82.06% from the same period last year [40]. - As of May 9, the spot production cost in the northern region of silicon - manganese was 5,770 yuan/ton, a decrease of 40 yuan/ton, and in the southern region was 6,190 yuan/ton, a decrease of 70 yuan/ton. The spot production profit in the northern region was - 290 yuan/ton, a decrease of 130 yuan/ton, and in the southern region was - 690 yuan/ton, a decrease of 180 yuan/ton [47]. Downstream - As of May 9, the daily average hot - metal output of 247 steel mills was 2.4564 million tons, an increase of 2,200 tons from last week and 111,400 tons from the same period last year [53]. - On April 17, the silicon - manganese tender price of HBIS was 5,950 yuan/ton, a decrease of 450 yuan/ton from March, and the ferrosilicon tender price was 5,900 yuan/ton, a decrease of 280 yuan/ton from March [53].

Group 1 - Warren Buffett emphasized the importance of international trade and criticized the use of tariffs as a weapon, suggesting that prosperity in other regions enhances U.S. security and prosperity [1] - Buffett expressed concerns about the current tariff conflicts and the U.S. government's deficit and dollar status, advocating for trade based on each country's strengths [1] - Despite concerns over tariffs, Buffett downplayed recent market volatility, comparing it to historical declines that did not indicate fundamental issues within Berkshire Hathaway [3] Group 2 - The U.S. government implemented a 25% tariff on imported automotive parts, which has drawn strong criticism from the automotive industry, warning of increased prices and disrupted supply chains [3] - New policies aim to avoid additional tariffs on imported cars and reduce tariffs on foreign parts used in U.S. car production, potentially allowing for refunds on previously paid tariffs [4] - The U.S. has a significant disparity in Most Favored Nation (MFN) tariff rates compared to the EU, with U.S. passenger cars and light trucks facing rates of 2.5% and 25%, respectively, while EU rates are considerably higher [5] Group 3 - In response to the new tariff policies, multinational automakers like Volkswagen and Audi have adjusted their pricing strategies and paused shipments from Mexico, indicating a swift reaction to the regulatory changes [7] - Other luxury brands such as Mercedes-Benz, Ferrari, and Porsche are also planning to increase prices for their models in the U.S. market due to the new tariffs [7]

Group 1 - During the May Day holiday, international gold prices exhibited a "deep V" trend, initially dropping to the $3200 mark due to unexpected news such as the breakdown of Japan's tariff negotiations and Trump's expansion of tariffs, but quickly rebounding to over $3400 per ounce as risk aversion increased [1] - The gold ETF (159937) saw a nearly 1% increase, achieving a transaction volume exceeding 400 million yuan, with a cumulative increase of over 45% in the past year [1] - The Federal Reserve maintained its interest rate at 4.25% to 4.50%, with Chairman Powell indicating no urgency to adjust rates, despite rising uncertainty in the economic outlook [1][2] Group 2 - Analysts predict that the Federal Reserve will likely keep interest rates unchanged in the upcoming meetings, with expectations of fewer than or equal to two rate cuts within the year [2] - The market remains volatile, influenced by Trump's tariff policies and the unclear outlook for U.S. stocks, with a prevailing bearish sentiment towards the dollar [2] - Recent economic data showed a 0.3% quarter-on-quarter decline in U.S. GDP, indicating the impact of tariffs, while personal consumption expenditures rose by 1.8% [3] Group 3 - The gold ETF (159937) closely tracks domestic gold prices with an annualized tracking error of only 0.3%, allowing investors to avoid storage and authentication costs while trading through a securities account [4]

特朗普（资料图） 据环球时报报道，从比尔·盖茨到蒂姆·库克，再到摩根大通的首席执行官杰米·戴蒙，连日来，美国的科技巨头、华尔街精英纷纷对巴菲 特决定今年年底前卸任以及对关税冲突的批评做出回应。当地时间3日，一年一度的伯克希尔·哈撒韦公司股东大会在美国内布拉斯加州 举行。该年会是分析经济形势、盘点市场走势的重要年度经济活动。此次年会正值全球经济受关税政策影响增长乏力之际，因而尤为受 到关注。现年94岁的巴菲特在年会收官讲话中正式宣布他将于年底卸任公司首席执行官。 这一举动将标志着一个时代的结束，也引发了人们对这家世界上最大的公司之一、财富创造机器未来走向的疑问。巴菲特表示，一旦阿 贝尔接任，他将对伯克希尔的所有决策拥有 "最终决定权"，包括资本配置的各个方面。巴菲特称，在某些情况下，他仍会 "留在公司， 并且可能会派上用场"。他还向股东们保证，自己无意出售任何伯克希尔的股票，将保留公司全部股份（约1600亿美元）。 巴菲特（资料图） 据美联社报道，巴菲特在长达五个小时的问答环节结束后宣布了这一消息，且没有回答任何相关问题。巴菲特表示，董事会成员中唯一 知道此事的只有他的两个孩子霍华德·巴菲特和苏茜·巴菲特。多年 ...

Group 1 - The manufacturing sentiment in the consumer goods and equipment manufacturing sectors has significantly declined, indicating a need for increased policy support [1][8][11] - In April, the manufacturing PMI dropped to 49.0%, falling below the neutral line of 50%, with consumer goods and equipment manufacturing sectors both entering a downturn [8][11] - The automotive sector showed a decline in production despite strong sales, with the operating rate of semi-steel tires dropping by 3.81 percentage points compared to March [11][14] Group 2 - The coal supply and demand situation remains weak, with low prices leading to a reduction in domestic supply and continued price declines [17][19] - The real estate sector experienced a marginal decline in transaction volumes, particularly in second and third-tier cities, while first-tier cities showed resilience [30][31] - The financial sector saw a decrease in trading activity, with the A-share market declining by 3.2% in April, while social financing data exceeded expectations [40][41] Group 3 - The consumer sector displayed structural strengths, with service consumption performing well, but uncertainties in external demand are increasing [2][3] - The TMT sector faces challenges due to rising trade barriers, impacting the development of humanoid robots and artificial intelligence industries [2][3] - The new energy sector is experiencing stable demand for lithium batteries, while the photovoltaic sector is seeing a decline in demand [2][3]

【环球时报特约记者 甄翔】从比尔·盖茨到蒂姆·库克，再到摩根大通的首席执行官杰米·戴蒙，连日来， 美国的科技巨头、华尔街精英纷纷对巴菲特决定今年年底前卸任以及对关税冲突的批评做出回应。当地 时间3日，一年一度的伯克希尔·哈撒韦公司股东大会在美国内布拉斯加州举行。该年会是分析经济形 势、盘点市场走势的重要年度经济活动。此次年会正值全球经济受关税政策影响增长乏力之际，因而尤 为受到关注。现年94岁的巴菲特在年会收官讲话中正式宣布他将于年底卸任公司首席执行官，届时他的 副手阿贝尔将成为公司新的掌舵人。同时，他罕见地对当前的关税冲突提出批评，并对美国政府的赤字 和美元地位表示担忧。 巴菲特年底卸任的消息引发多方关注。巴菲特于1965年收购了当时还是一家纺织厂的伯克希尔·哈撒 韦，并在几十年间将公司打造为一个横跨多个产业、总资产高达万亿美元的巨头。在巴菲特掌舵下，伯 克希尔·哈撒韦公司股东的年化收益率基本是标普500指数的两倍，而其本人也由此被称为"股神"。 巴菲特在年会上发声，明确表示"贸易不应该成为武器"，针对全世界征收惩罚性关税是"重大错误"。美 国全国公共广播电台（NPR）3日报道称，巴菲特是否会就贸易冲突及其 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The bond market is currently in a state of short - term weakness due to the decline in expectations of central bank easing, but the market has not given up on trading for future easing. Long - term and ultra - long - term bonds are expected to perform better than medium - and short - term bonds, and far - month contracts are better than near - month contracts. Prudent investors can stay on the sidelines [7]. - The current domestic economic data shows a comprehensive recovery, but the financial assets are weak because the market anticipates that the current high - growth data may be the peak in the future. There are also strong expectations of economic weakness under future tariff conflicts [24]. - Globally, the US economic data is showing signs of weakening, especially in the service sector. The US simple - minded tariff - adding policy will lead to a significant slowdown in the US economic growth and bring recession and deflationary pressures to non - US countries [24][27]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Logic and Strategy (P3 - 4) - In the bond market, the short - term weakness is due to the disappointment of central bank easing expectations. The market still has expectations for future easing, and the phenomenon of "lengthening duration for defense" is emerging, with short - term bonds weakening and long - term and ultra - long - term bonds relatively strong [7]. - For equity assets, the bottom is relatively clear under the strong support of the "national team", but the upward elasticity requires both micro and macro drivers [7]. 3.2 Macro Main Asset Fund Flow Changes (P5 - 6) - Domestic bond yields fluctuated slightly, US bond yields declined for the second consecutive week, the US dollar index was flat, gold soared and then retreated, and the commodity and equity markets were mainly in a volatile state [9]. 3.3 Recent Macro Data Analysis and Review (P7 - 13) - Domestic: The year - on - year growth rate of the profits of industrial enterprises above designated size in March declined significantly, while the cumulative growth rate from January to March increased. The main contributing sectors were non - ferrous metals, special equipment, and electrical machinery and equipment. The inventory form showed weak restocking willingness at the enterprise level [7][18]. - Overseas: US economic data weakened, with the service sector PMI significantly lower than the previous value and expectations. Although the manufacturing PMI rebounded, it was not enough to offset the decline in the service sector. The market has priced in the expected significant decline of US macroeconomic data to some extent [7]. 3.4 Fundamentals Analysis and Bond Futures - Spot Indicator Monitoring (P14 - 24) - After the tax - payment period, the fund flow fluctuated and declined. The central bank announced a 600 billion yuan MLF operation on the 25th, with 100 billion yuan due this month. The LPR quote remained unchanged, and the market's expectations for reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts continued to decline [7][32]. - The fund flow remained loose this week, falling below 1.7% on Friday. The disappointment of easing expectations dragged down the short - term bond market, especially since bond assets implied an expected interest rate cut of approximately 30bp [7][32]. 3.5 Equity Broad - Based Index Fundamentals, Liquidity, and Futures - Spot Indicator Monitoring (P25 - 29) No relevant content provided. 3.6 Medium - Term Macroeconomic Fundamentals Tracking and Monitoring (P30 - 46) - The Politburo meeting set the tone for the economic situation as improving but facing increasing external shocks. Policy priorities are employment > short - term economic growth and high - quality development > extensive strong stimulus [7][19]. - Fiscal policy focuses on accelerating the use of local bonds and special treasury bonds, and there is no mention of additional issuance. Monetary policy has changed from "seizing the opportunity" to "timely", reducing the short - term necessity and freedom of interest rate cuts but increasing the autonomy of future monetary easing [7][19]. 3.7 Long - Wave Macroeconomic Fundamentals Tracking and Monitoring (P47 - 48) No relevant content provided.

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Crude oil: ★★★ [1] - Fuel oil: ★★★ [1] - Low-sulfur fuel oil: ★★★ [1] - Asphalt: ★★★ [1] - Liquefied petroleum gas: ★★★ [1] Core Viewpoints - The cost support for oil prices remains effective, but due to risks such as trade wars and OPEC+ production increases, the space for a sharp rebound in oil prices is limited, and short-term prices may fluctuate within a range [2] - The futures of the fuel oil system showed a divergent trend today, with different factors affecting the cracking spreads of high-sulfur and low-sulfur fuel oils [3] - Today, asphalt prices rebounded following crude oil. The fundamentals of asphalt itself are affected by factors such as processing profits and refinery maintenance, and its price trend is influenced by crude oil in the short term [3] - The external market quotation of LPG has stabilized, and the domestic market has a cautious purchasing attitude. The futures price has certain support under a high premium to the spot price, and attention should be paid to the contraction of chemical demand after the reshaping of the trade flow [4] Summary by Category Crude Oil - EIA lowered the oil demand growth rate for this year and next year. The cost support for oil prices is still effective, but considering various risks, the short-term oil price may fluctuate within a range [2] Fuel Oil - The futures of the fuel oil system showed a divergent trend today, with FU rising more than LU. The cracking spread of FU is supported by the tight supply of heavy oil resources, while the cracking spread of LU is under downward pressure due to increased supply and a decline in the diesel cracking spread in Singapore [3] Asphalt - Today, BU rebounded following crude oil. The processing profit of diluted asphalt for refineries is poor, and the production enthusiasm is suppressed. The second-quarter operating rate of major refineries is restricted by maintenance. The short-term price trend of asphalt is influenced by crude oil [3] LPG - The external market quotation of LPG has stabilized, and the domestic market has a cautious purchasing attitude. The futures price has certain support under a high premium to the spot price. After the crude oil stabilizes, the driving force for the futures price to rebound is expected to increase [4]

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No information about the industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - In March 2025, the decline of PPI widened, with a year - on - year decrease of 2.5% and a month - on - month decrease of 0.4%. The decline was mainly due to international input factors, seasonal decline in energy demand, and price drops in some raw material industries [1]. - China may reduce the import of American films in response to the US tariff measures [1]. - The industry credit spread showed a slight fluctuation [4]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1. Mid - view Event Overview - **Production Industry**: Concerns about the impact of tariff conflict escalation on exports. The decline of PPI was affected by international input factors, seasonal energy demand, and raw material industry price trends [1]. - **Service Industry**: China may moderately reduce the import of American films and introduce more excellent films from other countries [1]. 3.2. Industry Overview - **Upstream**: International oil prices fluctuated due to tariffs; prices of copper, zinc, and nickel dropped; cement and building material prices continued to fall [2]. - **Midstream**: PTA's operating rate increased, PX's operating rate declined recently, and the operating rates of polyester and urea were at a high level this year. The asphalt operating rate reached a three - year low [2]. - **Downstream**: The sales of commercial housing in first - and second - tier cities were weaker than the same period. International flight frequencies increased, while domestic flight frequencies decreased compared to the same period [3]. 3.3. Market Pricing - The industry credit spread showed a slight fluctuation. The credit spreads of various industries had different trends, with some showing a decline and others showing an increase or remaining stable [4][47]. 3.4. Key Industry Price Index Tracking - **Agriculture**: The prices of corn, eggs, palm oil, cotton, pork, etc. had different year - on - year changes, with some rising and some falling [48]. - **Non - ferrous Metals**: The prices of copper, zinc, aluminum, silver, etc. mostly declined year - on - year [48]. - **Metals**: The prices of steel products such as rebar, iron ore, and wire rod had different trends, with some showing a slight decline and some remaining stable year - on - year [48]. - **Non - metals**: The prices of natural rubber, glass, etc. had different year - on - year changes [48]. - **Energy**: The prices of WTI crude oil, Brent crude oil, and liquefied natural gas had different trends, with some rising and some falling year - on - year [48]. - **Chemical Industry**: The prices of PTA, polyethylene, urea, etc. had different year - on - year changes [48]. - **Real Estate**: The cement price index, building material comprehensive index, and concrete price index had different year - on - year trends [48].