Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Macro Finance**: Bullish on stock index, bullish on treasury bonds [1] - **Non - ferrous Metals**: Aluminum - high - level wide - range shock; Alumina - weak fundamentals, limited upward drive; Zinc - expected to be shock - strong; Nickel - shock - weak; Stainless steel - shock; Tin - bullish in the long - term; Gold - shock in the short - term, upward space in the long - term; Silver - wide - range shock in the short - term; Platinum - shock - strong in the short - term, long - term long - position allocation; Palladium - shock in the short - term; Industrial silicon - bearish; Polysilicon - shock; Lithium carbonate - affected by multiple factors, facing pressure at 100,000 yuan [1] - **Black Metals**: Rebar - shock; Hot - rolled coil - shock; Iron ore - shock; Manganese silicon - shock; Silicomanganese - shock; Glass - price fluctuates strongly; Soda ash - shock; Coke - shock; Coking coal - shock [1] - **Agricultural Products**: Palm oil - wait - and - see; Rapeseed oil - expected to rebound; Cotton - "supported, no drive" in the short - term; Sugar - bearish consensus, cost - supported below; Corn - limited short - term decline; Imported soybeans - shock, different expectations for different contracts; Pulp - wait - and - see for single - side, consider 1 - 5 reverse spread; Logs - shock - weak [1] - **Energy and Chemicals**: Fuel oil - bearish; Bitumen - affected by multiple factors; Natural rubber - supported by raw material cost; BR rubber - shock, pay attention to export; PTA - affected by multiple factors; Ethylene glycol - price decline; Short - fiber - follow cost; Styrene - narrow - range shock; PP - limited upward space; PE - shock; Urea - shock; Propylene - shock; PVC - bearish; Caustic soda - affected by multiple factors; LPG - shock [1][2] Core Viewpoints - In the short term, be vigilant against the "buy - the - rumor, sell - the - news" adjustment after the policy implementation of the central economic work conference, but the market adjustment since mid - November has opened up space for the upward movement of the stock index next year [1] - Asset shortage and weak economy are beneficial to bond futures, but the central bank has recently reminded of interest - rate risks, suppressing the upward space [1] - Different non - ferrous metals are affected by factors such as industry fundamentals, macro - sentiment, and overseas policies, showing different price trends [1] - Black metals are affected by factors such as macro - drive, supply - demand relationship, and inventory, with prices mainly in a shock state [1] - Agricultural products are affected by factors such as supply - demand, policies, and weather, and their prices show different trends and need to pay attention to different influencing factors [1] - Energy and chemical products are affected by factors such as international oil prices, supply - demand relationships, and geopolitical situations, with complex price trends [1][2] Summary by Related Catalogs Macro Finance - **Stock Index**: In the short term, be vigilant against post - policy adjustment, but in the long term, the market adjustment since mid - November provides a layout window. Investors can gradually establish long positions during the adjustment period and use the discount structure of stock - index futures to optimize investment costs and winning probabilities [1] - **Treasury Bonds**: Asset shortage and weak economy are beneficial to bond futures, but the central bank's reminder of interest - rate risks suppresses the upward space. Pay attention to low - level layout opportunities for long positions [1] Non - ferrous Metals - **Aluminum**: High - level wide - range shock due to limited industrial drive and fluctuating risk preference [1] - **Alumina**: Domestic production and inventory are increasing, with a weak fundamental pattern. Although some short - positions leave the market and the price rebounds, the upward drive is limited [1] - **Zinc**: After the short - term digestion of macro - benefits, the fundamentals improve, the cost center moves up, and it is expected to be shock - strong in the short term. Pay attention to macro - sentiment and domestic policies [1] - **Nickel**: Affected by factors such as overseas policies and high global inventory, the price may be shock - weak in the short term. The long - term pattern of primary nickel is one of surplus [1] - **Stainless Steel**: Affected by factors such as raw - material prices, inventory, and production reduction of steel mills, the futures price fluctuates. Short - term operation is recommended, and pay attention to short - selling hedging opportunities at high prices [1] - **Tin**: Bullish in the long - term due to the tense situation in the Congo. Pay attention to low - level long - position opportunities during corrections [1] - **Precious Metals**: Gold and silver are in a shock state in the short - term, while platinum has upward potential in the short - term and long - term long - position allocation is recommended. The "long - platinum, short - palladium" arbitrage strategy can be continued [1] - **Industrial Silicon**: Bearish due to increased production in the northwest and decreased production in the southwest, as well as reduced production schedules of polysilicon and organic silicon in December [1] - **Polysilicon**: In the medium - long term, there is an expectation of capacity reduction. In the fourth quarter, terminal installation increases marginally, and large manufacturers have strong price - support and low delivery willingness. The number of delivery brands increases [1] - **Lithium Carbonate**: Affected by the peak season of new - energy vehicles, strong energy - storage demand, increased supply - side resumption, and pressure at the 100,000 - yuan level [1] Black Metals - **Rebar and Hot - rolled Coil**: In December, macro - drive strengthens, providing some rebound momentum. After the futures price rises, it is beneficial for basis positive - spread positions to enter the market. Do not chase high for single - side positions [1] - **Iron Ore**: Near - month contracts are restricted by production cuts, but the far - month has upward opportunities due to good commodity sentiment [1] - **Manganese Silicon and Silicomanganese**: Direct demand weakens, supply is high, and inventory accumulates, putting pressure on prices [1] - **Glass and Soda Ash**: Supply - demand provides support, and the valuation is low. However, short - term sentiment dominates, and the price fluctuates strongly [1] - **Coke and Coking Coal**: From a valuation perspective, the decline is close to the end. From a driving perspective, downstream restocking may start around mid - December. Single - side positions should be treated with a short - term approach, and long - term positions should wait and see [1] Agricultural Products - **Palm Oil**: Affected by the MPOB report and German policies, wait - and - see [1] - **Rapeseed Oil**: Expected to rebound due to the news of returned imported non - genetically modified rapeseed oil [1] - **Cotton**: In the short - term, it is "supported, no drive". Pay attention to policies, planting intentions, weather, and demand in the future [1] - **Sugar**: There is a global surplus and an increase in domestic supply. The bearish consensus is strong, and pay attention to the cost support below [1] - **Corn**: Short - term decline is limited, and pay attention to farmers' selling attitudes and inventory changes [1] - **Imported Soybeans**: Domestic auction results are positive for near - month and positive - spread positions. The M05 contract is expected to be relatively weak [1] - **Pulp**: Affected by "weak demand" and "strong supply" expectations, single - side wait - and - see, consider 1 - 5 reverse spread for month - spread [1] - **Logs**: Affected by external quotes and spot - price declines, the 01 contract is under pressure and is expected to be shock - weak [1] Energy and Chemicals - **Fuel Oil**: Bearish due to factors such as OPEC+ policies, the Russia - Ukraine situation, and US sanctions [1] - **Bitumen**: Short - term supply - demand contradiction is not prominent, following crude oil. The "14th Five - Year Plan" construction demand may be falsified, and the supply of Ma Rui crude oil is sufficient, with high profits [1] - **Natural Rubber**: Supported by raw - material cost, the basis is low, and the mid - stream inventory may return to the accumulation trend [1] - **BR Rubber**: Transaction improves, but high -开工 and high - inventory are still pressures. Pay attention to synthetic - rubber exports [1] - **PTA, Ethylene Glycol, Short - fiber**: Affected by factors such as gasoline cracking profit, PX cost, and new - device production [1] - **Styrene**: Mainly in a narrow - range shock, affected by export discussions and polymer - market sales [1] - **PP, PE**: Limited upward space due to insufficient domestic demand, with support below [1] - **Urea**: High - level operation of production, increased supply, and weak downstream demand [2] - **Propylene**: High - level cost support, but downstream improvement is less than expected [2] - **PVC**: Supply pressure increases, and demand weakens [2] - **Caustic Soda**: Affected by factors such as alumina production, production load, and inventory [2] - **LPG**: International oil and gas return to the fundamental - relaxation logic, and the price is in a range - shock state [2]

Group 1 - Several leading listed companies have announced substantial hedging plans for the 2026 fiscal year, with notable commitments from 佛燃能源, 新奥股份, 隆基股份, and 三一重工 [1] - 佛燃能源 has set a maximum contract value limit of 12 billion RMB for its commodity and foreign exchange hedging business for 2026, with a margin cap of 4.17 billion RMB [1] - 新奥股份 plans to utilize a maximum margin and premium of 4.7 billion USD for its 2026 commodity hedging plan [1] - 隆基股份 has a maximum margin limit of 1.5 billion RMB for its hedging business in 2026 [1] - 三一重工's subsidiary plans to have a maximum trading margin and premium of 800 million RMB, with a maximum contract value of 2 billion RMB on any trading day [1] Group 2 - A total of 1,782 A-share listed companies in the real economy issued hedging-related announcements from January to November 2025, an increase of 279 companies or 18.6% compared to the entire year of 2024 [3] - Currency risk remains the primary hedging demand, with 1,311 companies issuing related announcements, followed by interest rate risk (517 companies) and commodity price risk (481 companies) [3] - The electronics, basic chemicals, power equipment, machinery, and pharmaceutical industries have the highest number of companies engaging in hedging [3] - Copper is identified as the most actively hedged commodity [3] - Over 30 domestic insurance institutions have entered the futures market, primarily using government bond futures and stock index futures to manage interest rate risk and equity market volatility [3] - The number of new accounts opened by insurance funds in the futures market increased by 166% year-on-year in the first 11 months of 2025, reaching a historical high [3] - Recent regulatory documents have supported the participation of insurance funds in financial derivatives trading, providing a framework for managing asset-liability risks [3]

Group 1: Interest Rate Adjustments - The Hong Kong Monetary Authority (HKMA) has adjusted the base rate to 4.00% effective immediately, following a 25 basis point reduction in the U.S. federal funds rate [1] - The adjustment aligns with the "linked exchange rate system" and aims to maintain financial system stability in Hong Kong [1] - The lower U.S. federal funds rate target range indicates that the HKMA's base rate is set based on a pre-established formula [1] Group 2: Economic Outlook and Risks - HKMA's Chief Executive, Eddie Yue, noted that while the U.S. interest rate cut aligns with market expectations, there remains significant uncertainty regarding future monetary policy [2] - The reduction in interest rates is expected to lower borrowing costs for the public, positively impacting the Hong Kong economy and real estate market [2] - Hong Kong's economy has shown positive performance over the past three quarters, with strong exports and consumption [2] Group 3: Direct Investment Statistics - Hong Kong recorded a total foreign direct investment inflow of HKD 982.4 billion and outflow of HKD 629.2 billion, indicating its status as a major global investment destination [10] - The total stock of foreign direct investment in Hong Kong reached HKD 20,049.6 billion, which is 631% of its GDP, reflecting strong investor confidence [11] - Mainland China remains the primary source and destination for Hong Kong's direct investments, highlighting its role as a "super connector" in the region [11] Group 4: Service Industry Performance - The Hong Kong government reported a significant increase in service industry revenues, with IT services rising by 99.1% year-on-year and tourism services up by 4.6% [6] - The overall service industry is expected to continue expanding, supported by moderate global economic growth and improved local consumer sentiment [6] - External uncertainties still pose risks to specific sectors, necessitating close monitoring [6]

余伟文表示，香港方面，货币及金融市场保持有序运作。港元拆息在联系汇率制度下整体上趋近美元利 率水平，而较短期限的拆息也同时受本地市场港元资金供求影响，例如年结等季节性因素及资本市场活 动。 至于存贷利率方面，余伟文表示，银行一般会考虑同业市场资金供求、拆息及相关利率水平、本身的资 金成本结构等因素，来评估是否需要调整及调整的幅度。美国未来利率走向仍存在不确定性，对香港的 利率环境亦会有所影响，市民在作出置业、投资或借贷决定时，需充分考虑及管理利率风险。香港金管 局会继续密切监察市场变化，维持货币及金融稳定。 上证报中国证券网讯（记者 范子萌）美国联邦储备委员会10日结束为期两天的货币政策会议，宣布将 联邦基金利率目标区间下调25个基点至3.5%至3.75%之间。12月11日，香港金融管理局跟进下调基本利 率至4%。 关于美联储最新利率决议，香港金融管理局总裁余伟文12月11日发表观点称，美联储自2024年9月开启 降息周期以来已经降息175基点。会后发表的点阵图显示，美联储有可能于2026年内再降息25基点，但 通胀走势和就业市场情况仍存在较大不确定性，因而未来的货币政策走向有待观察。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve has lowered the federal funds rate target range by 25 basis points to between 3.50% and 3.75%, aligning with market expectations, but uncertainties regarding inflation and employment remain [1] Group 1: Monetary Policy Impact - The reduction in interest rates is expected to positively influence the housing market and the economy, as well as lower borrowing costs [1] - The Hong Kong Monetary Authority (HKMA) has noted that the recent economic growth in Hong Kong, such as a 3.8% increase in the third quarter, is strong in both exports and consumption, which is expected to have a positive effect on consumer spending [1] Group 2: Response to Local Events - In response to the fire at the Hong Fu Court in Tai Po, the HKMA and the banking sector have quickly implemented two rounds of measures totaling 11 initiatives to assist victims [1] - The situation regarding mortgages at Hong Fu Court is complex, and discussions are ongoing with various stakeholders, including the government and legal professionals, to develop a solution [1]

位。(3) 短纤价格继续跟随成本紧密波动。 能源化 (1) 苯乙烯市场整体维持窄幅震荡。 (2) 出口的讨论提供一定 支撑,但聚合物市场销售疲软。(3)美国汽油需求转弱,调油料 价格下行,高辛烷值组分价格下行。 (1) 出口情绪稍缓, 内需不足上方空间有限。 (2) 下方有反内 尿素 卷及成本端支撑。 (1) 检修减少,开工负荷高位。(2)远洋到港,供应增加。( 3) 下游需求开工走弱。（4）原油价格走低,油制成本下降。 (1) 检修较少,开工负荷较高,供应压力偏大。(2) 下游改善 不及预期。(3)丙烯单体高位,成本支撑较强。(4)原油价格 走低,油制成本下降。 (1) 盘面回归基本面。 (2)后续检修较少,新产能放量,供应 PVC 压力攀升。 需求减弱, 订单不佳。 (1) 广西氧化铝投前开始送货,部分氧化铝厂延迟投产,采购节 奏放缓。（2）开工负荷较高,检修较少。(3)山东烧碱存在累 库压力,液氯价格居高不下。(4)临近交割月,01合约持仓异 常,出现空逼多现象。 (1) 地缘/关税缓和,国际油气回归基本面宽松逻辑。(2) CP/ FEI近期回补修复上行。(3)华南茂名石化乙烯装置计划检修, 届时至1月 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Bullish: Gold, Silver, Platinum, Palladium, Non-ferrous metals (general), Glass, Polycrystalline silicon, Lithium, Iron ore (far - month), JF, TF - Bearish: Industrial silicon, Palm oil, Rapeseed oil, Cotton, Crude oil, Fuel oil, Benzene, Styrene, TGB, PVC, Caustic soda, Container shipping (European line) - Neutral (Oscillating): Stock index, Treasury bonds, Copper, Aluminum oxide, Zinc, Nickel, Stainless steel, Tin, Rebar, Coke, Coking coal, Lime, JF, TF, Paper pulp, Logs, Natural rubber, BR rubber, PLA, Ethylene glycol, Short - fiber, LPG Core Views - The Politburo meeting released limited incremental information. Market attention may shift to the Central Economic Work Conference, and the stock index is expected to remain strong before it [1]. - Asset shortage and weak economy are beneficial to bond futures, but the central bank's short - term interest rate risk warning suppresses the upward space [1]. - LME copper's rising price may fall back after the short - term positive sentiment fades. The fundamentals of domestic alumina are weak, and its price is under pressure [1]. - The fundamentals of zinc have improved, and attention should be paid to the Fed's December interest - rate meeting. The short - term nickel price may fluctuate with the macro situation, and the long - term supply is excessive [1]. - The stainless - steel futures may rebound in the short term, and the tin price may rise in the short term but with a risk of a pull - back. The long - term view on tin is bullish [1]. - Gold and silver prices are supported, and platinum and palladium prices are expected to be supported in the short term. A long - platinum and short - palladium arbitrage strategy can be continued [1]. - The prices of many industrial products such as steel, iron ore, and non - ferrous metals are affected by factors such as production restrictions, demand, and supply, showing an oscillating trend [1]. - The prices of agricultural products are affected by factors such as production, inventory, and demand, and are in different situations such as having support but no drive, or facing supply pressure [1]. - The prices of energy and chemical products are affected by factors such as raw material costs, supply and demand, and macro policies, showing different trends of rise, fall, or oscillation [1]. Summary by Categories Macro - financial - Stock index: Expected to remain strong before the Central Economic Work Conference [1]. - Treasury bonds: Asset shortage and weak economy are beneficial, but the central bank's short - term interest rate risk warning suppresses the upward space [1]. Non - ferrous metals - Copper: LME copper's rising price may fall back after the short - term positive sentiment fades [1]. - Aluminum oxide: Domestic production and inventory are increasing, the fundamentals are weak, and the price is under pressure [1]. - Zinc: Fundamentals have improved, pay attention to the Fed's December interest - rate meeting [1]. - Nickel: Short - term price may fluctuate with the macro situation, long - term supply is excessive [1]. - Stainless steel: Futures may rebound in the short term, pay attention to the actual production of steel mills [1]. - Tin: May rise in the short term but with a risk of a pull - back, long - term view is bullish [1]. Precious metals and new energy - Gold: Supported by factors such as the central bank's continuous increase in reserves and the high probability of the Fed's December interest rate cut [1]. - Silver: Supported by factors such as the Fed's interest rate cut and supply - demand imbalance, but the inventory increase may cause volatile fluctuations [1]. - Platinum and Palladium: Expected to be supported in the short term, a long - platinum and short - palladium arbitrage strategy can be continued [1]. - Lithium: Affected by factors such as the traditional peak season of new energy vehicles and increased supply [1]. Building materials and steel - Rebar and H - beam: 12 - month macro - drive provides rebound momentum, suitable for basis trading, do not chase high unilaterally [1]. - Iron ore: Near - month is restricted by production cuts, far - month has upward potential [1]. - Coke and Coking coal: The decline may be near the end, but the driving force needs to wait, and the downstream may start restocking in mid - December [1]. - Glass and Soda ash: Glass has supply and demand support and low valuation, but short - term sentiment dominates; soda ash follows glass, with upward resistance [1]. Agricultural products - Palm oil: The impact of floods on production is limited, and the near - month inventory pressure is large [1]. - Rapeseed oil: The industry is optimistic about the supply of Australian rapeseed and imported crude rapeseed oil, considering shorting opportunities [1]. - Cotton: Supported by the purchase price, but lacks driving force in the short term, pay attention to future policies and demand [1]. Energy and chemical products - Crude oil and Fuel oil: Affected by factors such as OPEC + policies and sanctions, showing a bearish trend [1]. - Natural rubber and BR rubber: Affected by factors such as raw material costs, inventory, and production, showing different trends [1]. - Ethylene glycol and PTA: Affected by factors such as cost, supply and demand, and new device production, with different price trends [1]. - Styrene and TGB: Affected by factors such as market supply and demand, exports, and raw material costs, showing an oscillating trend [1]. - LPG: After the price correction, it maintains range - bound oscillation, pay attention to the impact of natural gas on near - month prices [1].

| | | | 日度策略参考 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 行业板块 | 品种 | 趋势研判 | 逻辑观点精粹及策略参考 | | | | | 预计年内市场分歧将在股指震荡调整过程中逐步消化,后续有望 | | | | | 随着新主线的出现推动股指进一步上行。与此同时,中央汇金的 托底作用为市场提供了一定缓冲,指数下行风险整体可控。从策 | | | | | 略角度看, 近期市场的调整为明年股指进一步上行提供了布局机 | | 宏观金融 | | | 会,交易者可考虑在市场调整阶段逐步建立多头头寸,并借助股 | | | | | 指期货的贴水结构提升长线投资的胜率。 | | | 国债 | 震荡 | 资产荒和弱经济利好债期,但短期央行提示利率风险,压制上涨 答间。 | | | | | LME铜注销仓单引发挤仓担忧,铜价走高。但短期随着利好情绪消 化,铜价存在回落风险。88总 | | | | 震荡 | 短期随着利好情绪消化,价格存在回落风险。 | | | 氧化铝 | | 国内氧化铝产量及库存继续双增,基本面维持偏弱格局,价格承 压下行,关注矿端价格变化。 | | | | 農物 | 短期宏观利好消 ...

Group 1 - The global bond market is focusing on three main themes: European fiscal risks, a data vacuum in the US, and credit improvement in emerging markets [1] - The European Central Bank warns of increasing sovereign debt supply pressure and a shrinking scale of central bank bond purchases, leading to rising interest rate risks [1] - The probability of a rate cut in December in the US has dropped from 95% to 50% due to government shutdown, creating policy uncertainty in the market [1] Group 2 - Major bond yields globally have generally declined, with US long-term yields falling more than short-term yields, exemplified by a 5.2 basis point drop in the 30-year yield [1] - The UK 10-year bond yield saw a significant drop of 9.34 basis points, leading declines in developed markets [1] - Credit spreads have compressed significantly, with investment-grade corporate bonds dropping by 11 basis points and high-yield bonds decreasing by 29 basis points to 6.58% [1] Group 3 - The issuance of Dim Sum bonds totaled 41, with a scale of 95.383 billion yuan, where central bank bills accounted for 47.2% of the issuance [2] - The overall issuance structure is dominated by bank financial bonds, with urban investment bonds' coupon rates concentrated in the 5-7% range [2] - Offshore RMB bonds show a flattening characteristic with short-end yields rising and long-end yields falling, while the sovereign bond 10-year spread narrowed from 8.95 basis points to 5.19 basis points [2] Group 4 - The global bond market is experiencing a stable credit environment with no major sovereign rating adjustments or systemic defaults [3] - The debt of high-risk US companies increased from $271 billion to $296 billion, a rise of 9.2%, indicating accumulating refinancing pressure [3] - The net outflow from high-yield bond funds was $333 million, and from leveraged loan funds was $89 million, indicating pressure on liquidity [3] Group 5 - The strategy suggests focusing on 5-7 year medium to long-term bonds to capture the benefits of a steepening yield curve and rolling down yields, while maintaining a defensive position in AAA/AA+ rated securities [4] - The preferred regional allocation includes US investment-grade corporate bonds and emerging market sovereign debt, while caution is advised for European bonds [4]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Positive Outlook**: DREIE (equity index), Copper, Zinc, Tin (medium to long - term), Short - fiber [1] - **Neutral (Oscillating)**: Treasury bonds, Aluminum, Alumina, Nickel, Stainless steel, Platinum, Palladium, Polysilicon, Mono - crystalline silicon, Lithium carbonate, Rebar, Bilateral steel, Iron ore, Manganese silicon, Silicon carbide, Rare earth metals, Soda ash, Coke, Coking coal, Rapeseed oil, Cotton, Corn, Soybean meal, Pulp, Logs, Livestock, Crude oil, Natural gas, BR rubber, PTA, Ethylene glycol, Styrene, PE, PP, PVC, Caustic soda, TEPG, PG [1] - **Negative Outlook**: Fuel oil, Asphalt, Benzene ethylene [1] Core Views - The market divergence is expected to be gradually digested during the index's oscillating adjustment, and the index may rise further with the emergence of a new main line. The support from Central Huijin provides a buffer, and the risk of index decline is controllable. The recent market adjustment offers an opportunity to layout for the index's rise next year [1]. - The asset shortage and weak economy are favorable for bond futures, but the central bank's short - term warning on interest rate risks restricts the upward space [1]. - The expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut improves the macro - sentiment, which has an impact on the prices of various metals and energy - chemical products. The fundamentals of different industries also play a crucial role in price trends [1]. Summary by Industry Macro - finance - **DREIE**: The market divergence will be digested during the index's adjustment, and the index may rise further. The support from Central Huijin reduces the downside risk. Traders can gradually build long positions during the adjustment and use the futures' discount structure to increase the probability of long - term investment success [1]. - **Treasury bonds**: Asset shortage and weak economy are favorable, but the central bank's warning on interest rate risks restricts the upward space [1]. Non - ferrous metals - **Copper**: The Fed's interest rate cut expectation and industrial support lead to a strong price [1]. - **Aluminum**: The macro - sentiment is positive, and the price has rebounded due to limited industrial drivers [1]. - **Alumina**: The production and inventory are increasing, the fundamentals are weak, and the price oscillates around the cost line [1]. - **Zinc**: The Fed's interest rate cut expectation improves the sentiment. The reduction in processing fees leads to a production cut in December, supporting the price, which is oscillating strongly in the short - term but with upward pressure [1]. - **Nickel**: The Fed's interest rate cut expectation warms the sentiment. The impact of Indonesia's restrictions on smelting projects is limited. The price has rebounded after a decline and may oscillate with the macro - environment. The long - term supply of primary nickel is in surplus [1]. - **Stainless steel**: The Fed's interest rate cut expectation improves the sentiment. The raw material price has stopped falling, and the futures price oscillates. Short - term trading is recommended, and a light - position long - nickel short - stainless - steel strategy can be considered [1]. - **Tin**: The Fed's interest rate cut expectation and the tense situation in Congo - Kinshasa support the price. The demand pressure remains, and chasing high prices requires caution. The medium - to long - term outlook is positive [1]. Precious metals and new energy - **Precious metals**: After a sharp rise and fall, the short - term upward trend may slow down, and the price will oscillate. The Fed's interest rate cut expectation in December provides support [1]. - **Platinum**: After a short - term rise and fall, it is expected to oscillate. It is recommended to go long at low prices [1]. - **Palladium**: After a short - term rise and fall, it is expected to oscillate. It is recommended to wait and see in the short - term, and the [long - platinum short - lithium] arbitrage strategy can be continued in the medium - term [1]. - **Polysilicon**: The production in the northwest is recovering, and the production in the southwest is weaker than in previous years. The production schedule in November has decreased, and there is a joint production cut in organic silicon [1]. - **Mono - crystalline silicon**: There is an expectation of capacity reduction in the long - term. The terminal installation in the fourth quarter has increased marginally, and large manufacturers are reluctant to deliver goods [1]. - **Lithium carbonate**: The traditional peak season for new energy vehicles is approaching, and the energy - storage demand is strong. The supply side is resuming production and increasing output [1]. Ferrous metals - **Rebar and Bilateral steel**: The macro - drive is strengthening in December, providing some rebound momentum. After the futures price rises, it is beneficial for basis - positive arbitrage positions. Do not chase high prices unilaterally [1]. - **Iron ore**: The near - month contracts are restricted by production cuts, but the commodity sentiment is good, and the far - month contracts have upward potential [1]. - **Manganese silicon and Silicon carbide**: The direct demand is fair, and there is cost support, but the supply is high, and the inventory is accumulating, limiting the price rebound [1]. - **Rare earth metals**: The supply and demand are supportive, and the valuation is low, but the price fluctuates strongly due to short - term sentiment [1]. - **Soda ash**: It follows the trend of glass, but the supply and demand are average, and there is strong upward resistance [1]. - **Coke and Coking coal**: The valuation suggests that the price decline is approaching the end. The downstream may start a new round of inventory replenishment around mid - December. Short - term trading is recommended for now [1]. Agricultural products - **Palm oil**: The impact of floods on production is limited, and the near - month inventory pressure is high. The domestic arrival in December is expected to be large, and the basis is expected to be weak [1]. - **Rapeseed oil**: The industry is optimistic about the supply of Australian rapeseed and imported crude rapeseed oil, and short - selling opportunities can be considered [1]. - **Cotton**: The new domestic crop has a strong production expectation, and the purchase price supports the cost. The downstream demand has rigid replenishment needs. The market is currently in a state of "supported but lacking drivers" [1]. - **Corn**: The short - term downstream inventory is low, and the market acquisition enthusiasm is high. The spot price is firm, and the futures price oscillates at a relatively high level [1]. - **Soybean meal**: The Chinese procurement demand supports the US market. The domestic market is expected to oscillate in the short - term. Weather changes in South America should be monitored [1]. - **Pulverized coal**: The futures price has risen sharply due to low - warehouse - receipt trading, and the short - term fluctuation is expected to be large [1]. - **Logs**: The fundamentals are weak but have been priced in the market. Chasing short positions after a large price decline has a low risk - return ratio [1]. - **Livestock**: The spot price has gradually stabilized. The demand provides support, and the production capacity still needs to be further released [1]. Energy and chemicals - **Crude oil**: OPEC+ has suspended production increases until the end of 2026, the Russia - Ukraine peace agreement is progressing, and the US has increased sanctions on Russia [1]. - **Fuel oil and Asphalt**: They have a negative outlook due to factors such as OPEC+ policies, the possible falsification of demand, and high profits [1]. - **BR rubber**: There is strong raw material cost support, the futures - spot price difference is low, and the inventory may accumulate. The high - inventory situation restricts the price increase, but the synthetic valuation is low [1]. - **PTA**: The Fed's interest rate cut expectation and factors such as India's cancellation of import certification restrictions improve the export prospects and boost the purchasing sentiment [1]. - **Ethylene glycol**: It follows the price decline due to inventory accumulation. The cost support from coal is weakening, and the expected new device production suppresses the price increase [1]. - **Styrene**: The cost support is weakening due to factors such as weak Asian benzene prices and reduced gasoline demand in the US [1]. - **PE, PP, and PVC**: The supply pressure is high due to factors such as high operating loads and new capacity releases, while the downstream demand is weak [1]. - **Caustic soda**: There are factors such as delivery delays of alumina, high operating loads, inventory pressure in Shandong, and the risk of short - squeeze [1]. - **TEPG and PG**: The geopolitical and tariff situations are easing, and the market is expected to return to a loose fundamental logic. The price of PG oscillates in a range after a decline [1]. Others - **Container shipping on European routes**: The price increase in December fell short of expectations, the peak - season price increase was priced in advance, and the shipping capacity supply in December is relatively loose [1].