博弈资金进一步转松？ 2025 年 04 月 30 日 ➢ 刚性的资金、盘整的债市 利率专题 4 月以来，资金面整体呈现"供需结构改善、价格相对稳定"的状态，在市 场对于资金面季节性转松的期待中，公开市场投放确实出现了改善，但资金价格 仍在政策利率上方窄幅震荡。 而受制于较为刚性的资金价格，短端下行空间已相对有限，长端的约束在加 大，当前 10 年-1 年国债利差仍在 2024 年以来的较低分位，曲线平坦化已进入 相对极致的状态，长端继续下探的动力也相对不足。 当前随着债市步入横盘震荡期，交易难度在增加，对此，如何看待？ ➢ 货币政策取向再理解 由于当前实体消费和投资意愿待进一步提振，仅货币政策的扩张在提振经济 上或难以发挥出最大功效，若增量资金不断涌入债市、资金利率持续处于偏低水 平，也将增加利率风险。此外，当前外部环境复杂多变，货币政策保持定力，或 也旨在为后续应对留足空间。而运行于政策利率上方、呈现窄幅震荡的资金利率 便是多重考量下的均衡之举，与货币政策的支持性立场不矛盾，具体而言： （1）近年来，我国货币信贷增长已逐渐由供给约束转为需求约束，金融机 构此前在"规模情结"的驱使下，信贷投放力度较大，超出 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the report. Core Viewpoints - Most commodities are expected to be in a state of oscillation in the short term, with some showing potential for decline or upside. Amid uncertainties in tariffs and changing policies, investors are advised to be cautious and adjust their strategies according to market conditions [1]. Summary by Related Catalogs Macro Finance - For stock index futures, it's recommended to hold a light position and wait for a clear market direction. Due to high overseas uncertainties during the May Day holiday and low option volatility, consider a double - buy strategy for stock index options before the holiday [1]. - The bond futures are favored by asset shortage and weak economy, but the central bank's short - term interest rate risk warning restricts the upside [1]. - Gold is in short - term oscillation adjustment, but the long - term upward logic remains unchanged [1]. Non - Ferrous Metals - Copper has decent downstream demand, but there is a risk of price correction due to trade frictions [1]. - Aluminum prices oscillate due to uncertainties in global trade frictions [1]. - Alumina's supply - demand pattern has improved, with limited downside but lack of upward momentum [1]. - Zinc has support from low near - month inventory but faces fundamental suppression, presenting short - selling opportunities [1]. - Nickel prices oscillate after bottom - up repair. Pay attention to the cost support of electrowon nickel and beware of policy changes [1]. - Stainless steel futures oscillate in the short term. It's advisable to wait and see, and the industrial side should focus on policy changes and steel mill production schedules [1]. - Tin has a risk of supply premium disappearing as the复产 expectation in Low - Bang strengthens [1]. Industrial and Energy - Related Commodities - Industrial silicon is in a state of oversupply, with demand not improving and inventory pressure not relieved [1]. - Polysilicon's抢装潮 is ending, with demand expected to decline in the second half of the year. There is a need for a rebound after a large short - term decline [1]. - Carbonate lithium has a pattern of supply exceeding demand, with downstream maintaining just - in - time purchases [1]. - Steel products such as rebar and hot - rolled coil face downward pressure on opening prices due to trade disputes [1]. - Iron ore is under short - term pressure due to tariff policies and market sentiment [1]. - Manganese silicon and silicon iron oscillate, with cost and supply - demand factors at play [1]. - Glass and soda ash face supply - demand imbalances, with prices under pressure [1]. - Coke and coking coal are in a relatively oversupplied situation, and industrial customers can seize hedging opportunities [1]. Agricultural Products - Palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil are affected by weather and market sentiment, and it's recommended to wait and see before the holiday [1]. - Cotton prices may be affected by the trend of crude oil and the substitution effect between chemical fiber and cotton [1]. - Sugar prices are affected by overseas supply shortages and domestic high inventory [1]. - Corn may have a correction risk after the hype cools down, with a long - term bullish logic [1]. - Soybean meal is expected to oscillate weakly, and M09 is recommended to be bought at low prices [1]. Forestry and Livestock - Pulp is recommended to be short - sold or hedged due to weak cost support and entering the off - season [1]. - Logs have high inventory and no short - term positive factors, expected to oscillate at a low level [1]. - Pigs have a clear downward expectation in the futures market due to increased supply and lack of downstream highlights [1]. Energy and Chemicals - Crude oil, fuel oil, and asphalt are affected by factors such as tariffs, OPEC + policies, and cost - demand relationships [1]. - Rubber products such as natural rubber and BR rubber oscillate, with weak fundamentals [1]. - PTA is bearish due to device maintenance and weak market sentiment [1]. - Ethylene glycol, styrene, urea, methanol, PE, PP, PVC, and caustic soda all have their own supply - demand and market sentiment factors affecting their price trends [1]. Others - For the container shipping European line, the peak - season contracts can be lightly tested for long positions, and attention should be paid to the 6 - 8 reverse spread [1].

| CTEFINE | | | 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可 2012 31 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | せ 货 略 灰 | | 研究院:李泽矩 | | | 发布日期:2025/04 | | 投资咨询号: Z0000116 从业资格号:F0251925 | | | | | 行业板块 | 品种 | 趋势研判 | 逻辑观点精粹及策略参考 | | | 股指 | 震荡 | 短期建议股指期货轻仓观望,静待市场方向明朗。由于五一期间海外不确 定性较大,加上当前期权波动率处于较低位置,节前可考虑介入股指期权 | | | | | 双头策略。 | | 宏观金融 | 国债 | 震荡 | 资产荒和弱经济利好债期,但短期央行提示利率风险,压制上涨空间。 | | | 黄金 | 震荡 | 短期震荡调整为主,但中长期上涨逻辑尚未改变。 | | | 白银 | 震荡 ----- | 关税不确定性仍高企,商品属性或想对限制银价上方空间。 | | | 铜 | TU 看空 | 铜下游需求尚可,但贸易摩擦阴霾仍笼罩市场,近期反弹后价格存在回调 | | | | | 风险。 | | | | 震荡 | 全球贸易摩擦 ...

对大趋势的判断远比天天做波段赚小钱要更重要。如果天天只盯着一些消息或数据来做短线，不但心力憔悴，效果还不佳，到时就会"只见树 木，不见森林。"要做好投资，就要把目光放的长远，研究大势。 ——笔记哥《应对》 【笔记20240424— 央妈，财爸，发哥，隔空传情（+央行：央行国债操作是双向的+资金面平衡宽松=大上)】 资金面平衡宽松，长债收益率大幅上行。 央行：为维护银行体系流动性合理充裕，开展了20亿元7天期逆回购操作，中标利率为1.8%。当日20亿元逆回购到期并将进行700亿元国库现金定存招 标，因此单日全口径净投放700亿元。 资金全天维持宽松态势，盘中无明显波澜。 | | | | 银行间资金 | (2024. 4. 24) | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 回购代码 | 加权利率 | 变化 | 利率走势 | 最高利率 | 变化 | 成交量 | 变化量 | 成交量占 | | | (%) | (bp) | (近30天) | (%) | (bp) | (亿元) | (亿元) | 比 (%) | | R001 | ...