本周，美国将迎来重磅数据发布的一周，周五，美国12月季调后非农就业人数、失业率及新屋开工数据 集体公布，从就业和房地产两个维度把脉美国经济，美联储明年政策路径基本敲定。 炒股就看金麒麟分析师研报，权威，专业，及时，全面，助您挖掘潜力主题机会！ 美联储方面对降息又有新的表态。 1月5日，美股三大指数集体高开。明星股英特尔一度涨逾5%。标普500能源板块创下一年多来最高水 平，最新上涨2.4%。 中概股方面，纳斯达克中国金龙指数突然大幅回调，截至发稿跌约1.2%，个股方面，网易跌超4%，百 度、小鹏汽车跌近4%。中概股今日出现回调或因此前跳空大涨，上一个交易日，纳斯达克中国金龙指 数跳空大涨逾4%。 晚间，受地缘政治紧张等因素影响，黄金与白银继续飙涨，截至发稿，现货黄金上涨超2%，现货白银 涨逾4%。 美联储方面，2026年FOMC票委、明尼阿波利斯联储主席卡什卡利周一发表了对降息前景的中性表态， 他认为，美国的基准利率可能已接近"中性水平"，未来的货币政策将取决于经济数据的走向。 卡什卡利指出，尽管过去两年市场一直预期经济会放缓，但美国经济表现出的韧性远超预期。 他认为，这说明目前的货币政策对经济的抑制作用并不 ...

Core Viewpoint - The international gold market experienced a significant decline last week, recovering the previous week's losses and forming a bearish engulfing pattern, indicating potential further downward adjustments, although the upward trend and bullish outlook remain intact [1][10]. Price Movement - Gold prices opened slightly higher at $4537.12 per ounce, reached a weekly high of $4548.58, and then fell sharply, with a daily drop exceeding $200. The weekly low was recorded at $4274.54, and the final closing price was $4328.35, resulting in a weekly fluctuation of $274.04 and a decline of $203.91 or 4.5% compared to the previous week's closing price of $4532.26 [3][12]. Influencing Factors - The decline in gold prices was influenced by reduced bullish sentiment following the previous surge, profit-taking at year-end, and increased margin requirements for precious metal futures by the CME. Additionally, the initial jobless claims in the U.S. reached a new low since late November, contributing to downward pressure on gold prices [3][12]. Geopolitical and Economic Outlook - On January 5, gold opened higher at $4346.46, driven by geopolitical tensions, including U.S. military actions in Venezuela and airstrikes in Yemen, which increased demand for safe-haven assets. However, the sustainability of this upward movement remains uncertain, and investors should be cautious of potential pullbacks [4][14]. Upcoming Economic Data - The upcoming release of the December non-farm payroll report is highly anticipated, as it will be the first normal monthly data since the end of the U.S. government shutdown. Any signs of a slowing job market could lead to earlier interest rate cut expectations, which may negatively impact gold prices. Other economic indicators, such as ISM manufacturing and non-manufacturing PMIs, will also be assessed for insights into the U.S. economic health and the timing of potential Fed rate cuts [5][14]. Long-term Outlook - Despite recent fluctuations, the long-term bullish outlook for gold remains unchanged, supported by factors such as expected Fed rate cuts, economic concerns, geopolitical tensions, central bank purchases, and ETF inflows. The market continues to show signs of buying on dips and safe-haven demand [15]. Technical Analysis - On a monthly chart, gold prices showed a significant retreat at the end of December, closing below a trendline resistance and forming a bearish pattern, indicating potential for a larger correction towards the $4000-$3900 range. However, if January sees a strong upward movement, it could open the door for a bull market towards the $5500-$6000 range [17]. Trading Strategy - For day trading, key support levels for gold are noted at $4350 or $4320, while resistance levels are at $4415 or $4445. For silver, support is at $73.50 or $72.30, with resistance at $76.70 or $78.85 [19].

Group 1 - Gold and silver prices experienced significant increases on January 5, with London gold reaching $4,400 and peaking at $4,419.81 per ounce, marking a daily increase of 0.81%. COMEX gold rose by 1.88%, while COMEX silver surged by 5.73% [1][4]. - The rise in precious metal prices is attributed to heightened geopolitical tensions, particularly in the Middle East and Ukraine, alongside increasing probabilities of a Federal Reserve rate cut in January. This has led to a surge in market risk aversion, providing support for gold prices [4]. - Long-term factors such as the anticipated Federal Reserve rate cut cycle, increasing uncertainty in overseas macroeconomic policies, and a global trend towards de-dollarization are expected to continue supporting gold prices [4]. Group 2 - As of January 5, the latest prices for gold jewelry were reported as follows: Chow Tai Fook at 1,378 yuan per gram, Chow Sang Sang at 1,376 yuan per gram, and Lao Feng Xiang at 1,370 yuan per gram. Some gold jewelry prices increased by 22 yuan overnight [5].

Core Viewpoint - The international gold market experienced a significant decline last week, recovering the previous week's losses and forming a bearish engulfing pattern, indicating potential further downward adjustments. However, the overall upward trend and bullish outlook remain intact, suggesting that any further declines could present buying opportunities [1][3]. Price Movements - Gold prices opened slightly higher at $4,537.12 per ounce, reached a weekly high of $4,548.58, and then fell sharply, recording a daily drop of over $200. The weekly low was $4,274.54, with a final closing price of $4,328.35, reflecting a weekly decline of $203.91 or 4.5% compared to the previous week's close of $4,532.26 [3]. - The market's volatility was influenced by profit-taking after previous surges in precious metals, increased margin requirements for futures contracts, and a drop in initial jobless claims in the U.S. [3][4]. Geopolitical Influences - Recent geopolitical tensions, including U.S. military actions in Venezuela and airstrikes in Yemen, have driven demand for gold as a safe haven. However, these factors are typically short-term boosts, and the overall market adjustment pattern remains to be seen [4][6]. Economic Indicators - The upcoming U.S. non-farm payroll report is highly anticipated, as it will be the first normal monthly data since the end of the government shutdown. Any signs of a slowing job market could accelerate rate cut expectations, which may negatively impact gold prices [6]. - Other economic indicators, such as ISM manufacturing and non-manufacturing PMI, will also be assessed to gauge the health of the U.S. economy and the timing of potential Fed rate cuts [6]. Long-term Outlook - Despite a significant initial increase in gold prices, the overall bullish outlook remains unchanged, supported by factors such as expected Fed rate cuts, geopolitical tensions, and strong central bank demand for gold [6][8]. - Projections for 2026 suggest continued benefits from Fed rate cut expectations, ongoing geopolitical tensions, and strong demand for gold from central banks and ETFs, indicating further bullish market potential [8]. Technical Analysis - On a monthly chart, gold prices have shown a significant pullback, indicating potential for a larger correction towards the $4,000-$3,900 range. However, a strong performance in January could signal a bullish trend towards $5,500-$6,000 [8]. - Weekly and daily charts indicate that while there may be short-term downward pressure, the overall trend remains upward, with key support levels identified at $4,325 and $4,280 [10].

特朗普，再度威胁！早间（1月5日），黄金再度直线拉升。 | W | | | 伦敦金现 SPTAUUSDOZ.IDC | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 4365.605 | | 昨结 | 4331.575 | 总量 | | 0 | | +34.030 | +0.79% 开奖 | | 4332.190 | 现于 | | 0 | | 最高价 | 4372.617 | 持 仓 | 0 | 外 盘 | | 0 | | 最低价 | 4332.190 | 增 i | 0 | 内 물 | | 0 | | 分时 | 五日 | EK | 宮Ｋ | 月K | 白天 | (0) | | 暨加 | | | | 均价:0.000 | | | | 4372.617 | | | | 0.95% | 【一 4366.552 | | | | | | | | 4365.605 | | | | | | | | 7:27 4365.690 | O | | 4331.575 | | | | 0.00% | 7:27 4365.860 | 0 | | | | | | | 7:27 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights the continued strength of precious metals, particularly gold, driven by geopolitical tensions and expectations of interest rate cuts in the U.S. [1] - As of the last trading day, spot gold rose by 0.33% to $4,332.88, with a significant annual increase of 64% in 2025, following a record high of $4,549.95 per ounce on December 26 [1] - Market expectations suggest that the Federal Reserve may implement at least two rate cuts of 25 basis points each, making non-yielding gold more attractive to investors [1] Group 2 - Other precious metals have shown even stronger performance, with spot silver increasing by 1.66% to $72.8 per ounce, and platinum rising by 3.5% to $2,125.80, both reaching historical highs [2] - In 2025, silver and platinum outperformed gold, with silver's annual increase exceeding 147% and platinum's rising by 127%, driven by supply constraints and industrial demand [2] - Palladium also maintained its strong momentum, rising nearly 2% to $1,636.43 per ounce, with a total annual increase of 76%, marking the largest annual gain in 15 years [2]

国际黄金： 1月1日，2025年 开于2625.92美元/盎司，最低录得2614.66美元（1月），最高录得4549.60美元（12 月），年振幅1934.94美元，最高涨幅73.26%，最终回撤收于4314.72美元，收涨1688.8美元，最终涨幅 64.31%。 国际白银： 2025年 开于28.71美元/盎司，最低录得28.325美元（4月），最高录得83.874美元（12月），年振幅 55.522美元，最高涨幅192%，最终回撤收于71.52美元，收涨42.81美元，最终涨幅149%。 推动力： 年内美联储降息3次以及仍未结束的降息周期、关税政策担忧、地缘政治热点、央行购买和ETF流入等 多重因素合力铸就的成果。 白银同时还受其被列入美国关键矿产清单、供应短缺以及工业与投资需求增长推动而涨幅远超黄金。 展望后市； 尽管年末反弹受阻于美元和收益率上涨而大幅获利了结，以及芝商所再次上调贵金属期货保证金影响进 一步重挫，导致年涨幅缩水。 但市场仍显逢低买盘和避险需求的支撑。中长期看涨观点仍然没有改变。 2026年将继续受益于美联储降息预期的继续、持续的地缘政治紧张、对冲通胀需求，各国央行强劲的购 金需求，以 ...

摘要周三（12月31日）亚市盘中，贵金属经历踩踏式抛售后开始收复失地，金银窄幅震荡，现货黄金目 前交投于4370美元/盎司附近，现货白银交投于75.50美元附近。进入2025年末，黄金市场经历了剧烈的 过山车行情。纵观全年，黄金价格已累计上涨66%，有望成为自1979年以来表现最为亮眼的一年。 金瑞期货：从宏观和基本面来看，明年美联储货币政策宽松利率回落的趋势并未发生改变，中长期包括 主权国家赤字问题、地缘风险以及去美元化驱动的央行购金等因素并未改变，白银以及铂的供需矛盾也 持续存在，贵金属价格的长期核心驱动因素仍保持稳健 国投期货：隔夜贵金属转涨。美联储会议纪要显示官员分歧严重，不过大多数与会者认为如果通胀如预 期随时间下降，进一步下调利率可能是适当的。美联储宽松前景以及地缘风险支撑贵金属强势，但资金 推动下涨幅过大，阶段性调整在所难免，短期谨慎参与，波动率下降后维持多头参与思路。 西南期货：当前全球贸易金融环境错综复杂，"逆全球化"和"去美元化"大趋势，利好黄金的配置价值和 避险价值。各国央行的购金行为对黄金走势也形成了支撑。但近期贵金属大幅上涨，投机情绪显著升 温。预计市场波动将显著放大，多单可离场后暂 ...

【要闻速递】 据CME"美联储观察"，市场对美联储未来降息预期趋于保守：明年1月降息25基点的概率仅14.9%，维 持利率不变概率高达85.1%；到3月累计降息25基点的概率为45.2%，维持不变48.3%，累计降息50基点 仅6.5%。 摘要今日周三(12月31日)亚盘时段，现货黄金交投于4344美元/盎司附近，金价周二反弹，势将创下自 1979年以来最大年度涨幅，受益于美联储降息预期、持续的地缘政治紧张、各国央行强劲的购金需求， 以及大量资金流入黄金ETF。 今日周三(12月31日)亚盘时段，现货黄金交投于4344美元/盎司附近，金价周二反弹，势将创下自1979年 以来最大年度涨幅，受益于美联储降息预期、持续的地缘政治紧张、各国央行强劲的购金需求，以及大 量资金流入黄金ETF。 【最新现货黄金行情解析】 昨日黄金走势与10月21日高度相似：价格在暴跌后出现技术性修正，晚间于4403一线承压回落。今日金 价徘徊于5-10日均线附近，尾盘最低下探近70美元。 日线图上，大阴之后收出带长上影的小阳孕线，整体仍处于修正下跌格局，与4380前一轮下跌形成对 称，预示后市震荡后仍将进一步下探至下方支撑区域。 多周期压 ...

Market Overview - The Hang Seng Index in Hong Kong increased by 125 points or 0.49%, reaching 25,944, while Japan's Nikkei fell over 200 points to 50,550 [2][4] - Shanghai and Shenzhen indices rose by 0.4% and 0.19%, respectively, and Korea's Kospi gained 1.6%, reaching 4,197 [2][4] - Investor sentiment is buoyed by expectations of further US interest rate cuts and confidence in the ongoing technology stock rally [2][4] Federal Reserve Insights - The Federal Reserve recently reduced borrowing costs, but indicated a cautious approach, suggesting rates may remain unchanged in the next meeting due to mixed opinions among policymakers [2][4] Commodities Market - Gold prices hovered near $4,500 after peaking just under $4,550, while silver prices slipped to $77.50 after briefly reaching a record $80 [3][4] - The rise in precious metals is attributed to strong buying interest driven by expectations of lower interest rates and their safe-haven status amid geopolitical tensions [3][4] - Oil prices recovered after a decline of over 2% on Friday, influenced by discussions between US President Trump and Ukraine's President Zelensky regarding potential peace proposals [3][4]