Group 1: Tariff Policy Impact - The new tariff policy marks the highest tariffs in the U.S. since the Smoot-Hawley Tariff Act of the 1930s, with most countries facing a tariff increase to 15% and specific countries like Canada and Brazil facing rates of 35% and 50% respectively [4][6][13] - The tariffs are expected to significantly impact U.S. domestic companies and consumers, leading to reduced profit margins, decreased market confidence, and potential cuts in investment and hiring [13][14] - The tariffs are seen as a tool for the U.S. to exert control over its trading partners, particularly Canada and Brazil, with political motivations behind the tariff increases [6][7][8] Group 2: Economic Repercussions - Recent polls indicate a decline in President Trump's approval ratings to 40%, reflecting public concern over his handling of economic policies, including tariffs [2][3] - The tariffs have led to price increases in various sectors, with leather prices up by 40%, fresh produce by 7%, and automotive prices by 12%, resulting in an estimated additional annual cost of $2,400 for the average American household [14][15] - Economic forecasts suggest that the inflation rate in the U.S. could exceed the Federal Reserve's target, with potential long-term indirect effects on consumers due to the tariffs [15] Group 3: International Relations and Trade Agreements - Traditional allies like Japan and the EU have also been affected, with both agreeing to invest in the U.S. and open their markets in exchange for lower tariffs [9][11] - Japan's GDP growth forecast has been downgraded due to the impact of U.S. tariffs, highlighting the interconnectedness of global economies [10] - The EU has expressed concerns that the tariffs will disrupt transatlantic supply chains and has indicated a willingness to take countermeasures if necessary [11][12]

Group 1 - Trump's second round of tariffs has elicited unexpected reactions from countries like Brazil, India, and Switzerland, leading to new uncertainties in global trade [1] - The 50% tariff imposed on Brazil is expected to increase prices for American consumers on popular products such as beef, cola, and hamburgers, while significantly impacting Brazil's export economy [5] - India's response to the 50% tariff includes halting new weapon and aircraft purchases from the U.S. and emphasizing its energy security needs, showcasing its independent foreign policy [5] - Switzerland's 39% tariff will heavily pressure its export-driven economy, particularly affecting companies like Pilatus, which has suspended aircraft deliveries to the U.S. due to increased costs [7] Group 2 - The high tariff policies aim to reduce trade deficits and protect U.S. manufacturing in the short term, but may lead to increased international trade friction and retaliatory measures from affected countries [9]

贝森特的言语耐人寻味，或暗示特朗普的高关税并非永久性，同时还给出下一任美联储主席的"招聘要 求"。 美国财政部长贝森特在接受《日经新闻》采访时表示，如果贸易失衡状况得到改善，美国对其他国家征 收的对等关税可能会缩减。 关于与尚未达成贸易协议的国家的持续谈判，他说："我认为我们将在10月底之前基本完成这项工作。" 特朗普政府也一直在利用关税就乌克兰冲突问题向俄罗斯施加更大压力，最引人注目的是威胁对继续购 买俄罗斯石油的印度额外征收25%的关税——使总税率达到50%。 贝森特还解释说，关税政策是增加税收和保护美国产业的一种方式，并补充说特朗普也"将其用于外交 政策的谈判"。"就像现在，他说他希望印度停止购买俄罗斯石油，"他说。 至于日本，经过谈判，东京方面接受了15%的关税，并承诺设立一个5500亿美元的投资和贷款一揽子计 划。在商品交换中，美国对日本有690亿美元的贸易逆差。 贝森特上周四在他的财政部办公室说，"随着时间的推移，关税应该像一块融化的冰块。" 同一天，特朗普政府实施了对等关税的新税率。例如，对美国进口的日本商品的税率从10%提高到了 15%。 贝森特正在领导与亚洲多国的贸易谈判。随着新关税税率的实 ...

8日，世贸组织（WTO）在发布的预测更新中表示，全球商品贸易预计将在2025年增长0.9%，较4月预 测的-0.2%有所改善，但低于关税上调前的2.7%估计值。WTO经济学家将此次上调主要归因于美国提前 进口。 关税对贸易的影响 WTO总干事伊维拉表示："全球贸易在面对持续冲击时展现出韧性，包括面对最近的关税上调。提前进 口和改善的宏观经济条件为2025年展望提供了温和支撑。然而，最近关税措施的全面影响仍在逐步显 现。关税不确定性的阴影继续对企业信心、投资和供应链构成沉重压力。不确定性仍是全球贸易环境中 最具破坏性的力量之一。" "然而，值得庆幸的是，迄今为止，可能对全球贸易造成严重损害的更广泛的报复性循环已被避免。 WTO秘书处将继续密切监测相关发展，包括进一步研究最新关税措施对全球贸易中按最惠国待遇 （MFN）原则进行的贸易份额的影响。"她称。 亚洲经济体推动全球商品贸易量增长 WTO表示，亚洲经济体预计将在2025年继续成为推动全球商品贸易量增长的最大积极因素，尽管其在 2026年的贡献将小于4月时预测的水平。 与此同时，北美将在2025年和2026年对全球贸易增长产生负面影响，但今年其负面影响将小于此 ...

2025年春，美国总特朗普重返白宫不久，便签署行政令，正式把"对等关税"从竞选口号变成了具有强制 力的法律工具，定于4月5日起实施。为了强化震慑效应，白宫把8月1日设为最后谈判期限，凡未与美国 达成协议者，附加税将立即落地。新的国别关税已从8月7日起正式生效。 由于欧盟、日本等发达经济体拥有相对较多的谈判筹码，同时也承诺向美国进行巨额投资，目前欧盟适 用"总税负至15%"的专门规则，日本按约15%执行（但是否与既有关税叠加等计算口径仍不确定）。 反观东盟，各成员国实力相对弱小，且在产业结构、外交优先次序以及国内政治体制上千差万别，难以 迅速形成共同立场，只能被迫分头应战。东盟经济总量和美国差距很大，对美出口额也远小于中国和欧 盟。但在"后疫情时代"与中美竞争交织的背景下，东南亚已跃升为全球供应链的关键枢纽，也是中国企 业出海的重要目的地。美国若想通过关税重塑供应链，就必须对这条新兴链条施压。而东盟如果失去美 国市场，其就业、外汇收入甚至金融稳定也会受到连锁冲击。因此，这场看似"配角"的摩擦，正在撬动 比人们想象更深远的地缘经济重组。 "对等关税"的计算与政策逻辑 "对等关税"最大的特点，是用一张看似统一的基准 ...

Group 1 - The U.S. has imposed a 25% additional tariff on Indian products, raising the total tariff rate to 50%, which is expected to disrupt U.S.-India trade significantly [1][3] - Moody's has indicated that the high tariffs could severely impact India's manufacturing sector and slow down economic growth, particularly affecting the jewelry, textiles, and automotive parts industries [3] - India's gem and jewelry exports totaled $32 billion from April 2023 to March 2024, with nearly $10 billion (over 30%) of that going to the U.S., making the sector vulnerable to the new tariffs [3] Group 2 - The diamond industry in India is facing increased costs of over 50% due to the tariffs, forcing businesses to prioritize price reductions while raw material prices are also rising [5] - The U.S. remains the largest market for India's textile and apparel exports, with potential immediate losses of $2.5 billion to $3 billion in exports due to the tariffs [7] - The automotive parts sector, which has seen rapid growth and achieved a trade surplus, exported $6.6 billion worth of parts to the U.S. in 2024, with $3 billion of that being commercial vehicle parts now threatened by the tariffs [7] Group 3 - Negotiations between the U.S. and India regarding tariff measures have stalled, with India refusing to grant tariff concessions on agriculture and dairy as requested by the U.S. [9]

Core Viewpoint - The recent EU-US trade agreement has been criticized for its vague content and potential to exacerbate future trade tensions, with experts likening it to a "napkin agreement" due to its lack of clarity and enforceability [1][2][3] Group 1: Agreement Criticism - The EU-US trade agreement is seen as poorly constructed, with experts highlighting its ambiguous nature and the likelihood of disputes over its execution [1] - The agreement has been described as more of a statement or informal understanding rather than a solid contract, raising concerns about its durability [1][2] - Previous experiences with US trade agreements have led to skepticism regarding the US's commitment to uphold its side of the deal, as evidenced by past renegotiations that excluded agricultural products [1] Group 2: Economic Implications - The trade agreement is viewed as a reward for bad behavior, undermining decades of global trade principles and potentially increasing protectionism [2] - The shift in US trade policy, with tariffs on the EU rising from 2.2% to 15%, is perceived by some European politicians as a victory, despite the risk of further escalation to 30% [2] - The agreement may lead to greater EU dependence on the US in trade and defense, which could damage the EU's standing as an independent negotiating entity [3] Group 3: Future Outlook - The EU is expected to pursue initiatives to enhance its own capabilities, such as developing its defense industry and expanding trade relations with other economies [3] - There is a possibility that the EU will strengthen its trade ties with other regions, including finalizing a long-negotiated free trade agreement with the Southern Common Market [3]

赤泽亮正表示，此前与美方反复确认，针对现有税率低于15%的商品，在8月税率提高后总税率应为15%。而美国政府日前发布的公告显示，日本 已被征税商品需在现有税率之上再加15%，内容与协议不符，对日本不利。 日美新一轮关税协议8月7日正式生效。同一天，日本政府发布更新版的2025财年实际国内生产总值（GDP）增长预期数据，从先前预期的1.2%下 调至0.7%。其下调预期的主要原因之一是美国加征关税的影响。 日本经济再生担当大臣赤泽亮正 8月6日上午，日本经济再生担当大臣赤泽亮正表示，美国方面公布的8月7日开始征收关税的官方公告与此前日美双方达成的协议不一致，此前在7 月22日，美国与日本达成贸易协议，日本适用的所谓"对等关税"税率将为15%。由于"对等关税"包含所谓10%的"基准关税"4月起已在征收，8月起 日本适用的税率将从10%提高到15%。 第一，在安全上，日本依靠美国，所以在这方面日本受到很大的牵制。 虽然知道日美关税是强扭的瓜，但怎么这么快就变味了？ 第二，在贸易方面，日本对美国的出口有顺差，基本上三分之一以上是汽车，日本汽车对美国汽车具有巨大的竞争优势。在这一情况下，日本就 必须艰苦谈判。 中国世贸组 ...

路透社8日援引未具名印度官员的话报道，由于美国对印度加征高额关税，印度已经决定暂停执行购买美国武器装备的计划。 印度防长取消访美 每经编辑｜段炼 近期，印度与美国的贸易谈判因双方在关税和非关税壁垒上的分歧而陷于困境。美国总统特朗普6日又以印度进口俄罗斯石油为由，下令对印度输美产品 额外征收25%的关税，这意味着美国对印度征收的总体关税税率达到50%。 印度政府表示，美方对印度加征关税的做法"不公平、不正当、不合理"，印度将"采取一切必要行动"维护国家利益。 暂停购买美国武器 报道说，印度暂停采购的美制武器装备包括"斯特赖克"装甲车、"标枪"反坦克导弹以及6架P-8I反潜侦察机。 8月7日，就美国宣布对印度加征50%关税，印度总理莫迪首次发表讲话予以回应。莫迪说，即使为此付出沉重代价，他也不会损害印度农民的利益。 美国商务部的数据显示，去年美国对印度的商品贸易逆差约为450亿美元。美国从印度进口价值870亿美元的商品，包括药品、智能手机等通信设备，以及 服装等。印度从美国进口价值420亿美元的商品，包括石油和天然气、化学品，以及航空航天产品等，美国一度是印度最大的贸易伙伴。 路透社报道，两名印度官员透露，印度国 ...

报告说，关税政策对服装和纺织品价格的影响尤为严重。鞋类价格短期内将上涨39%，服装价格将上涨 37%。从长期来看，这两类商品价格将分别上涨19%和18%。 报告预计，受关税政策拖累，美国实际国内生产总值增速今明两年将分别下降0.5个百分点。另外，关 税政策将导致美国失业率到今年年底上升0.3个百分点。到2026年年底，失业率将上升0.7个百分点。 越来越多专家担心，美国普通民众不得不承担高关税的严重代价。 美国摩根大通资产管理全球市场战略分析师米拉·潘迪特7日说，高关税带来的成本中有大约60%的比例 将转嫁给消费者。 新华社记者宿亮 美国商务部长卢特尼克7日接受记者采访时表示，随着"对等关税"生效，预计美国每月将"入账"至少500 亿美元的关税收入。他说，此前一个月，美国已因新的关税措施获得300亿美元收入。 美国总统特朗普当天也在社交媒体发帖，称"数十亿美元的资金将开始流入美国""关税正以我们想象不 到的水平流入美国"。 然而，一些投资分析师和智库看到的美国经济图景，与美国政府的描述完全不同。 投资机构动态经济战略公司首席执行官约翰·席尔瓦表示，今年4月初，美国颁布"对等关税"以来，企业 招聘停滞，通胀压力 ...