Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve decided to maintain the federal funds rate target range at 3.50% to 3.75%, pausing the rate cuts that began in September 2025, aligning with market expectations [1] Group 1: Economic Indicators - Current indicators show that U.S. economic activity is expanding at a steady pace, with employment growth at low levels but a stabilizing unemployment rate [1] - Inflation levels remain high, and uncertainty regarding the U.S. economic outlook is still significant [1] - The unemployment rate is stabilizing around 4.4%, expected to remain below 4.5% in the first half of 2026, indicating insufficient employment pressure to support rate cuts [2] Group 2: Federal Reserve's Stance - The Federal Reserve's statement and Chairman Powell's remarks indicate a more optimistic view of the current economic situation, which is the primary reason for pausing rate cuts [1] - There were two dissenting votes from Fed governors advocating for a 25 basis point rate cut, reflecting some internal disagreement on the decision [2] - The Fed is expected to enter a data observation period to assess the effects of previous rate cuts, particularly focusing on economic and inflation data [2] Group 3: Future Projections - The Federal Reserve is likely to maintain a slow pace of rate cuts, with inflation becoming a central consideration for monetary policy [3] - The next potential rate cut is anticipated around June 2026, with expectations of one to two rate cuts throughout the year, totaling around 50 basis points [3]

北京时间1月29日，美联储宣布将联邦基金利率目标区间维持在3.5%至3.75%之间不变，暂停了此前连 续三次的降息。中信证券海外宏观联席首席分析师李翀表示，结合本次利率决议，美联储主席鲍威尔在 任期间，美联储或不再实施降息操作。 通胀层面，李翀分析说，若不新增关税，鲍威尔将预计关税通胀见顶的时间从一季度后移至年中，这是 相较于2025年12月会议偏鹰的表态。加之特朗普多次释放关税威胁，新政策落地存疑，预计鲍威尔任内 剩余两次会议将暂停降息。 资产价格方面，美股、美债及美元波动温和。在偏鹰会议背景下，贵金属价格大幅走高，其走势主要受 地缘因素与市场情绪驱动。 美联储此次议息会议声明与前次差异显著，李翀总结四方面调整：一是经济活动表述从"以温和步伐扩 张"改为"以稳健步伐扩张"；二是就业表述更新为"就业增长仍处较低水平，失业率显现稳定迹象"，此 前表述为"就业增长放缓、失业率截至9月略有上升，近期指标与上述一致"；三是通胀表述精简为"通胀 仍偏高"，删除了"较年初有所上行"的表述；四是风险判断删除"近期就业下行风险上升"，仅保留"关注 双重使命两侧风险"。 就业市场方面，李翀认为，美国虽维持"低招聘+低裁员"格局 ...

然而，内部分歧显露无遗。美联储理事沃勒(被视为鲍威尔5月任期结束后潜在接任者之一)和理事米兰 (目前从白宫经济顾问职位休假中)均投票支持降息25个基点，与多数决策者意见相左。 主流机构与市场观点普遍认为，美联储宽松周期已进入明确延长期，在鲍威尔5月离任之前，央行大概 率维持观望姿态，除非出现劳动力市场明显恶化、通胀超预期加速回落这两类核心变量，否则2026年上 半年重启降息的可能性极低。此外，沃勒投下的反对票，被市场广泛解读为其角逐美联储主席提名的鸽 派姿态，政治因素对美联储后续政策的潜在影响，成为新的关注点。 周四(1月29日)亚洲时段，现货黄金价格继续走强，截至发稿，现货黄金暂报5554.72美元/盎司，上涨 2.59%，最高触及5591.61美元/盎司，最低下探5414.11美元/盎司。虽然美联储利率决议按兵不动，同时 美元指数超跌反弹，但是市场已经在题前计价美元走弱，叠加地缘局势的不确定性支撑金价加速走高， 短期多头情绪过热，谨防高位大幅震荡。 周三，美联储维持利率不变，将基准利率保持在3.50%-3.75%的区间内，投票结果为10:2。美联储主席 鲍威尔在新闻发布会上表示，经济增长前景明显改善，通胀 ...

Group 1: Federal Reserve Policy and Political Pressure - The Federal Reserve maintained the policy interest rate at 3.50%-3.75% after three consecutive rate cuts in September, October, and December 2025, marking the first pause in rate cuts in 2026[11] - The voting results showed 10 votes in favor and 2 against, with dissenting votes advocating for a 25 basis point cut, reflecting political pressure on the Fed's independence[11] - At least one-third of the questions during the press conference focused on the Fed's independence and political pressure, indicating heightened concerns in the market[12] Group 2: Trump's Influence and Challenges - Trump's political pressure on the Fed has intensified, including threats to sue Chairman Powell and push for the removal of Governor Cook, reflecting his lack of confidence in controlling the Fed[13] - The likelihood of Kevin Hassett being nominated as the next Fed Chair has significantly decreased, with Rick Rieder emerging as the leading candidate at 37% probability, compared to Hassett's 7%[17] - The changing dynamics in the nomination process suggest that Trump's ability to influence the Fed is becoming more challenging, as potential candidates show varying degrees of independence from his administration[21] Group 3: Future Rate Cuts and Economic Outlook - The Fed is expected to adopt a "hawkish resistance" stance during Powell's term, likely delaying rate cuts until June 2026, with a potential for about two rate cuts thereafter[26] - Economic indicators suggest that the U.S. job market will remain weak, with inflation expected to stabilize, allowing for some room for rate cuts without triggering inflationary pressures[27] - The Fed's independence is crucial to avoid a repeat of the 1970s inflation crisis, as political interference could lead to uncontrolled inflation and increased market volatility[29]

Group 1 - The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) decided to maintain the benchmark interest rate at 3.50%-3.75%, pausing the series of rate cuts that began in September of the previous year [1] - The voting on the interest rate decision showed a split with a 10-2 ratio, where members Milan and Waller supported a 25 basis point cut [1] - The statement did not provide signals regarding the timing of the next rate cut, emphasizing that rate assessments will be based on data, economic outlook, and risks [1][2] Group 2 - The economic outlook has been upgraded, indicating that economic activity is expanding at a "robust" pace, although uncertainty remains high [2] - The employment market has shown signs of stabilization, with previous concerns about rising risks to employment being removed from the statement [2][4] - Inflation remains slightly above target, with core PCE inflation expected to rise to 3% in December, and tariff-related inflation anticipated to peak mid-year [5] Group 3 - The economic foundation in the U.S. is described as solid, with a noticeable improvement in the economic activity outlook compared to December predictions [3] - The labor market is stabilizing after a period of softening, with risks related to both inflation and employment having diminished [4] - Market reactions included fluctuations in gold and silver prices, with gold reaching a historical high, while the dollar and U.S. Treasury yields experienced slight volatility [5]

美联储官员在去年三次降息后，预计将于本周三维持短期利率不变。面对白宫要求进一步降低借贷成本 的巨大压力，美联储选择暂不行动，静待经济走势明朗。 去年4月，唐纳德・特朗普总统推出全面关税政策后，美国就业增长几近停滞。美联储彼时降息，意在 提振经济、防止就业市场进一步恶化。目前已有迹象显示，失业率趋于稳定，经济或迎来回暖，而通胀 率仍顽固地高于美联储2%的目标值。多重趋势之下，维持当前利率成为合理选择。 美联储主席杰罗姆・鲍威尔本周三的新闻发布会上，大概率会回应一个核心问题：美联储将维持当前利 率多久。利率制定委员会内部仍存在分歧：一方官员认为，通胀回落前不应继续降息；另一方则主张进 一步降息，为就业市场提供更多支撑。 去年12月，该委员会19名参会者中，仅有12人支持今年至少再降息一次。多数经济学家预测，美联储今 年将降息两次，最有可能在6月或之后的议息会议上落地。 美联储本周召开议息会议，全程笼罩在特朗普政府施加的前所未有的压力之下。1月11日，鲍威尔称， 司法部就其在国会作证时涉及25亿美元建筑翻新项目的相关内容启动刑事调查，并向美联储送达了传 票。鲍威尔在一份措辞罕见直白的视频声明中表示，这些传票只是借口 ...

美联储官员们将在今年前几个月密切关注通胀数据，留意企业在新年重新定价时是否出现异常幅度的涨 价。一个关键问题是：零售商是否已消化完在更高关税生效前购入的库存，并开始将更高成本转嫁给消 费者。如果年度调价幅度温和，可能会消除降息的一大障碍。 Timiraos表示，美联储预计将在周三的政策声明中仅作小幅调整，并将基准利率维持在3.5%–3.75%区 间。如果美联储官员们继续保留有关"进一步调整利率"的措辞，这将表明他们尚未准备好释放出长期暂 停的信号。 Timiraos指出，更棘手的问题在于：需要出现什么情况，美联储才会再次启动降息？Timiraos认为，答 案取决于哪一种风险先行显现：是就业市场出现明显恶化，还是通胀率重新、且令人信服地朝2%的目 标水平回落。 自美联储官员们去年12月上次会议以来，这两种情况都尚未发生。就业增长明显放缓，但失业率已趋于 稳定。通胀率仍徘徊在2.8%左右，高于美联储2%的目标；不过，一些官员认为，若剔除关税影响，潜 在通胀趋势其实已更接近目标水平。 因此，联邦公开市场委员会（FOMC）目前处于观望状态，即便白宫正对美联储施加前所未有的政治压 力。大多数美联储官员仍认为今年晚些时候 ...

威尔明顿信托高级债券投资组合经理认为，美联储不会锁定"暂停"立场，主席鲍威尔或将突出政策灵活 性。"此次会议除维稳利率外，不会有太多其他动作。美联储已进入可保持耐心的阶段。" 转自：新华财经 新华财经北京1月27日电 市场普遍预期，美联储将在本周召开的联邦公开市场委员会（FOMC）会议上 维持联邦基金利率在3.50%–3.75%区间不变。 高盛集团指出，理事沃勒和鲍曼预计将支持维持利率不变，而理事米兰可能成为唯一反对者。高盛首席 美国经济学家预测，美联储2025年将实施两次降息，首次行动将于6月落地。 路透社援引上周五公布的数据称，美国12月非农就业增长放缓幅度超预期，但失业率回落至4.4%，薪 资增长稳健；同期消费者价格指数（CPI）同比上涨2.7%，与11月持平，符合市场预期。这些指标强化 了美联储在1月会议按兵不动的合理性。 此前，多位美联储官员近期表态亦指向政策审慎。前堪萨斯城联储主席乔治表示："我的预期是，他们 将释放暂停降息的信号……会维持利率不变相当长一段时间。"纽约联储主席威廉姆斯及美联储理事巴 尔等核心成员亦多次使用"政策处于合理区间"这一措辞，强调决策将基于逐次会议的数据评估，而非预 设路 ...

市场普遍预期美联储将在本周的政策会议上维持利率不变，此前美联储已计划在2025年底前连续三次降 息。因此，各方关注的焦点将是官员们是否会暗示他们计划维持利率不变多久。 高盛集团预计，美联储将在本周的议息会议上维持利率不变。该行指出，沃勒和鲍曼两位理事可能支持 这一决定，而特朗普去年刚任命的理事米兰将成为唯一持反对意见者。 高盛首席美国经济学家戴维・梅里克尔（David Mericle）在投资者报告中表示，预计美联储今年将实施 两次降息，首次降息落地6月。 美联储去年曾于9月、10月、12月三次降息，当前政策利率区间已调至3.50%-3.75%，这些举措也是美联 储在劳动力市场增长放缓、经济数据走弱背景下释放的货币宽松信号。 梅里克尔称，市场预计美联储主席鲍威尔将在此次会议上强调，此前的降息举措将助力稳定劳动力市 场，目前美联储已具备充分条件评估降息的实际效果。 安永帕特农首席经济学家格雷戈里・达科（Gregory Daco）表示，当前利率已接近中性水平，且通胀率 更接近3%而非2%的目标，未来降息的前提是，有明确证据表明通胀持续回落，或就业市场再度恶化。 "货币政策或已接近中性，这意味着未来的宽松举措将推进得 ...

Group 1: Core Viewpoint - The 2026 economic outlook for the U.S. is optimistic, with expectations of growth exceeding 2%, driven by AI investments, tax reforms, and continued interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [1][6][7] Group 2: Optimistic Factors - AI investment is expected to continue expanding, contributing to GDP growth, although the growth rate may significantly decline compared to previous years [1][6] - The "Big and Beautiful" tax reform has already been implemented in 2025, with limited incremental policies in 2026, leading to a potential decrease in fiscal stimulus effects [1][6] - The Federal Reserve plans to cut interest rates only twice in 2026, maintaining a neutral policy rate around 3%, which may provide some economic relief but not strong stimulus [1][6] Group 3: Risks - The negative impact of tariffs is expected to persist, with the effective tariff rate reaching its highest since 1943, potentially reducing long-term economic growth by 0.7 percentage points and contributing to inflationary pressures [2][7] - The labor market is projected to remain weak, with high unemployment rates and low job growth, which may constrain consumer spending and income growth [2][7] - Stock market returns may decline due to uncertainties related to AI narratives, monetary policy, and midterm elections, leading to a weakened wealth effect that could suppress consumption and investment [2][8]