高盛集团策略师指出，尽管地缘政治局势存在不确定性，但市场对经济前景的乐观情绪占据主导，当前 投资者风险偏好已升至2021年以来最高水平。 作者：观察君 基于当前利好的宏观经济环境，高盛策略师表示，该行对股票资产仍维持超配评级。 市场有风险，投资需谨慎。本文为AI基于第三方数据生成，仅供参考，不构成个人投资建议。 本文源自：市场资讯 高盛在报告中提到，该行编制的风险偏好指标上周升至1.09，创下2021年以来的最高纪录。回溯至1991 年的指标数据显示，这一数值处于98%分位数的高位区间。高盛团队表示："如此高企的风险偏好水平 实属罕见。"该团队指出，历史上指标超过1.0的情况仅出现过六次。不过，这并不一定意味着市场即将 转入熊市，在利好的宏观经济背景支撑下，股市的上涨势头有望持续。 高盛风险偏好指数的多数分项指标均呈现出积极的风险偏好信号，凸显出自去年以来股市上涨覆盖面不 断拓宽的趋势。市场看涨情绪高涨的主要表现为：投资者更青睐小盘股而非大盘股，更青睐新兴市场股 票而非发达市场股票。 黄金价格的持续上涨是为数不多的体现市场谨慎情绪的指标之一。若将黄金剔除出该指数的统计范畴， 指数数值或将进一步走高。过去两年间 ...

MACD金叉信号形成，这些股涨势不错！ 高盛集团策略师指出，尽管地缘政治局势存在不确定性，但市场对经济前景的乐观情绪占据主导，当前 投资者风险偏好已升至五年来最高水平。 策略师在一份报告中写道，该行编制的风险偏好指标上周升至1.09，创下 2021 年以来的最高纪录。回 溯至 1991 年的指标数据显示，这一数值处于98% 分位数的高位区间。 高盛团队表示："如此高企的风险偏好水平实属罕见。" 该团队指出，历史上指标超过 1.0 的情况仅出现 过六次。不过，这并不一定意味着市场即将转入熊市。他们称："在利好的宏观经济背景支撑下，股市 的上涨势头有望持续。" 高盛风险偏好指数的多数分项指标均呈现出积极的风险偏好信号，凸显出自去年以来股市上涨的覆盖面 正不断拓宽这一趋势。策略师提到，推动市场看涨情绪的主要因素包括，投资者更青睐小盘股而非大盘 股，更青睐新兴市场股票而非发达市场股票。 MACD金叉信号形成，这些股涨势不错！ 策略师指出，黄金价格的持续上涨是为数不多体现市场谨慎情绪的指标之一。若将黄金剔除出该指数的 统计范畴，指数数值或将进一步走高。过去两年间，受投资者规避政治风险、寻求货币与债券替代品的 需求推动， ...

钛媒体App 1月27日消息，高盛集团策略师表示，随着对经济的乐观情绪抵消地缘政治的不确定性，投 资者的风险偏好情绪创五年来新高。高盛策略师在报告中写道，其风险偏好指标上周触及1.09，为2021 年以来最高，是1991年有数据以来的第98百分位。"如此高企的风险偏好水平属罕见，"高盛团队表示， 历史上只有另外六次高于1.0的情况。不过，这未必意味着应转向看空。他们称，宏观环境具有支持性 可维系股票回报。（广角观察） ...

1. Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - Trump's statement that he does not rule out the possibility of reaching a diplomatic agreement with Iran has led to a short - term decline in risk - aversion sentiment and an increase in market risk appetite. The dollar index is expected to fluctuate in the short term [11]. - The upcoming policy to promote service consumption may have an impact on the A - share market. The market is currently in a state of rapid rotation, and the overall risk is controllable. It is recommended to continue holding long positions in stock index futures [17]. - The long - term bearish logic of the bond market remains unchanged. Although there is a short - term rebound, it is advisable to short after the upward momentum fades [20]. - The steel market is expected to be volatile in the short term, and it is advisable to hedge on rallies. The coking coal market is expected to be weak and volatile in the short term. The动力煤 market is expected to have strong price support. The iron ore market is expected to be weak in February [23][25][27][28]. - The soybean meal futures price is expected to remain volatile, and attention should be paid to weather conditions in South American production areas. The vegetable oil market is affected by various factors, and it is not recommended to take unilateral positions in rapeseed oil. Attention can be paid to arbitrage strategies [29][33]. - The lead price is expected to remain in low - level consolidation. It is recommended to look for short - selling opportunities on rallies. The zinc price can be considered for buying on dips, with caution in chasing up. The lithium carbonate price is likely to be prone to rising and difficult to fall, and long - biased strategies can be adopted with attention to risk control [34][40][45]. - The copper price is expected to fluctuate at a high level, and it is advisable to stay on the sidelines in the short term. The tin price is expected to have wide - range fluctuations in the short term. Attention should be paid to supply recovery and consumption improvement [49][53]. - Oil prices are affected by geopolitical situations. Attention should be paid to changes in the Middle East geopolitical situation. The asphalt price is expected to be volatile and strong in the short term, and attention should be paid to geopolitical changes [54][57]. - The urea price is expected to enter a consolidation phase in the short term, with a possible further correction around the Spring Festival. Low - buying opportunities for the 05 contract can be considered after the relative valuation provides a safety margin [60]. - The styrene price may deviate from the industrial logic in the short term due to the intensification of short - squeeze sentiment. It is recommended to shift from low - buying to cautious waiting. The PVC price may be relatively strong in the short term, but the upward space may be limited. The caustic soda near - month contract's rebound height is expected to be limited, while the far - month contract can be considered for light - position long - side layout on dips [63][65][67]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Financial News and Comments 3.1.1 Macro Strategy (Foreign Exchange Futures - US Dollar Index) - Trump will raise the tariff rate on a variety of South Korean goods to 25% due to the South Korean Congress's failure to approve and implement the previous trade agreement [10]. - Trump does not completely rule out the possibility of resolving the Iranian issue through diplomacy, leading to a short - term decline in risk - aversion sentiment and an increase in market risk appetite. The dollar index is expected to fluctuate in the short term [11]. - Investment advice: The dollar index is expected to fluctuate in the short term [12]. 3.1.2 Macro Strategy (US Stock Index Futures) - Trump announced an increase in the tariff rate on South Korean goods to 25%. - The US durable goods orders in November increased by 5.3% month - on - month, exceeding market expectations, mainly driven by aircraft orders. The market risk appetite has marginally improved. - Investment advice: During the earnings season, US stocks are expected to be more volatile and maintain high - level consolidation [16]. 3.1.3 Macro Strategy (Stock Index Futures) - Policies to promote service consumption are即将推出. The A - share market is in a state of rapid rotation, with overall controllable risk. - Investment advice: Continue to hold long positions in stock index futures [18]. 3.1.4 Macro Strategy (Treasury Bond Futures) - The central bank conducted 150.5 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net withdrawal of 780 million yuan on the day. - The long - term bearish logic of the bond market remains unchanged. Although there is a short - term rebound, it is advisable to short after the upward momentum fades. - Investment advice: Short the bonds after the upward momentum fades [21]. 3.2 Commodity News and Comments 3.2.1 Black Metals (Rebar/Hot - Rolled Coil) - Policies to optimize consumer goods replacement and promote the consumption of large - scale durable goods such as automobiles will be implemented. - Steel prices are expected to fluctuate. It is advisable to hedge on rallies in the short term. - Investment advice: Adopt a volatile trading strategy and hedge on rallies [24]. 3.2.2 Black Metals (Coking Coal/Coke) - The coking coal market in Lvliang is fluctuating, with prices rising and falling. The market is expected to be weak and volatile in the short term. - Investment advice: The coking coal market is expected to be weak and volatile in the short term [25]. 3.2.3 Black Metals (Steam Coal) - The FOB price of Indonesian Q3800 Panamax steam coal is maintained at $50 - 51 per ton. The price is expected to have strong support in the short term. - Investment advice: The steam coal price is expected to have strong support due to seasonal supply decline and high demand in February [27]. 3.2.4 Black Metals (Iron Ore) - The iron ore market of MGX Resources showed a divergence in production and sales in the fourth quarter. The iron ore price is expected to be weak in February. - Investment advice: The iron ore price is expected to be weak in February [28]. 3.2.5 Agricultural Products (Soybean Meal) - The soybean meal inventory of oil mills decreased last week. The futures price is expected to remain volatile. - Investment advice: The soybean meal futures price is expected to remain volatile, and attention should be paid to weather conditions in South American production areas [30]. 3.2.6 Agricultural Products (Soybean Oil/Rapeseed Oil/Palm Oil) - The palm oil production in Malaysia from January 1 - 25 decreased by 14.81% month - on - month, and exports increased by 7.97% month - on - month. The rapeseed oil market is affected by the uncertainty of China - Canada relations. - Investment advice: It is not recommended to take unilateral positions in rapeseed oil. Attention can be paid to arbitrage strategies [33]. 3.2.7 Non - Ferrous Metals (Lead) - The LME 0 - 3 lead was at a discount of $44.56 per ton on January 23. The domestic lead ingot inventory increased. The lead price is expected to remain in low - level consolidation. - Investment advice: Look for short - selling opportunities on rallies and stay on the sidelines for arbitrage [36]. 3.2.8 Non - Ferrous Metals (Zinc) - South 32's zinc concentrate production in Q4 2025 increased by 25% quarter - on - quarter, and 29Metals' zinc production in Q4 increased by 72% quarter - on - quarter. The domestic zinc ingot inventory decreased. - Investment advice: Buy on dips for unilateral positions, with caution in chasing up. Stay on the sidelines for arbitrage [40]. 3.2.9 Non - Ferrous Metals (Lithium Carbonate) - The Guangzhou Futures Exchange will introduce overseas traders to lithium carbonate futures and options. Sigma Lithium sold 100,000 tons of high - purity lithium ore concentrate powder. - Investment advice: Adopt a long - biased strategy, look for low - buying opportunities after the position volume and volatility stabilize, and pay attention to risk control [45]. 3.2.10 Non - Ferrous Metals (Copper) - The roadblock in the Escondida copper mining area in Chile has been lifted. Zangge Mining's subsidiary's copper mine phase - II project was put into operation. - Investment advice: The copper price is expected to fluctuate at a high level, and it is advisable to stay on the sidelines in the short term. Stay on the sidelines for arbitrage [49]. 3.2.11 Non - Ferrous Metals (Tin) - The LME 0 - 3 tin was at a discount of $245 per ton on January 23. The exchange strengthened risk prevention and control. The tin price is expected to have wide - range fluctuations in the short term. - Investment advice: The tin price is expected to have wide - range fluctuations in the short term. Pay attention to supply recovery and consumption improvement [53]. 3.2.12 Energy Chemicals (Crude Oil) - The Tengiz oil field in Kazakhstan is preparing to resume production. Oil prices are affected by geopolitical situations. - Investment advice: Pay attention to changes in the Middle East geopolitical situation [55]. 3.2.13 Energy Chemicals (Asphalt) - The asphalt refinery inventory decreased, while the social inventory increased. The asphalt price is expected to be volatile and strong in the short term. - Investment advice: The asphalt price is expected to be volatile and strong in the short term. Pay attention to geopolitical changes [57]. 3.2.14 Energy Chemicals (Urea) - The compound fertilizer capacity utilization rate increased. The urea price is expected to enter a consolidation phase in the short term, with a possible further correction around the Spring Festival. - Investment advice: The urea price is expected to enter a consolidation phase in the short term. Consider low - buying the 05 contract after the relative valuation provides a safety margin [60]. 3.2.15 Energy Chemicals (Styrene) - The styrene inventory in East China ports increased. The styrene price may deviate from the industrial logic in the short term due to short - squeeze sentiment. - Investment advice: Shift from low - buying to cautious waiting for styrene. The far - end expectation game of pure benzene may not end [63]. 3.2.16 Energy Chemicals (PVC) - The domestic PVC powder market price increased. The PVC export tax - rebate policy will be cancelled on April 1. The PVC price may be relatively strong in the short term, but the upward space may be limited. - Investment advice: The PVC price may be relatively strong in the short term, but the upward space may be limited [65]. 3.2.17 Energy Chemicals (Caustic Soda) - The caustic soda price in Shandong decreased. The caustic soda market has high supply, weak demand, and high inventory. The near - month contract's rebound height is expected to be limited, while the far - month contract can be considered for light - position long - side layout on dips. - Investment advice: The near - month contract's rebound height is expected to be limited. The far - month contract can be considered for light - position long - side layout on dips [67].

Core Viewpoint - Precious metals have experienced a significant surge since the beginning of the year, with silver outperforming gold, reaching a historical high of over $94, and increasing more than twofold compared to the same period last year [1] Group 1: Silver and Gold Market Dynamics - The gold-silver ratio, which indicates how many ounces of silver are needed to purchase one ounce of gold, is currently around 50, suggesting that silver is in a strong position relative to gold [3] - A rising gold-silver ratio typically indicates strong market risk aversion or pessimism about economic prospects, while a declining ratio suggests increased market risk appetite and optimism about economic growth [4][5] Group 2: Factors Supporting Silver's Price Increase - The narrative of silver as a "green metal" continues, driven by long-term structural demand from sectors like photovoltaics, providing growth momentum that gold does not possess [7] - Historical data shows that the gold-silver ratio has the potential to decrease further, with extreme bull market periods seeing the ratio drop below 30, indicating room for continued compression [7] Group 3: Price Projections and Market Sentiment - In a bullish scenario, silver prices could exceed $120, but the current rapid increase may be driven by short-term speculation, which could lead to a significant correction if profit-taking occurs [9] - The influx of funds into precious metals may be weakening as investors assess the duration of supply constraints, and rising silver prices could impact its industrial applications, prompting companies to seek alternatives [9]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views Copper - Today, Shanghai copper fluctuated weakly with little change in open interest. Due to the Greenland issue and rising expectations of EU - US tariffs, market risk appetite declined, causing the non - ferrous sector to be weak overall. Copper, with strong macro properties, was resilient due to the strength of gold and silver. In the industrial aspect, under the pattern of near - term weakness and long - term strength, the month - spread continued to weaken, and the 02 - 03 contract closed approaching 300 yuan/ton. Technically, attention should be paid to the support at the 100,000 yuan mark [6]. Aluminum - Today, Shanghai aluminum weakened in the morning and stabilized in the afternoon with a decline in open interest. The Greenland issue and EU - US tariff expectations led to a decline in market risk appetite and a weak non - ferrous sector. On the industrial side, SMM reported that new electrolytic aluminum production capacities at home and abroad were continuously ramping up, and the daily output was steadily increasing. However, the demand side was suppressed by high aluminum prices, with a strong wait - and - see atmosphere, and the social inventory of electrolytic aluminum continued to rise. Continuous attention should be paid to the long - short game at the 24,000 yuan mark [7]. Nickel - Today, Shanghai nickel weakened in the morning, approaching the 140,000 yuan mark at one point, and stabilized in the afternoon. The macro factors of the Greenland issue and EU - US tariff expectations reduced market risk appetite and weakened the non - ferrous sector. In the industrial aspect, the port inventory of nickel ore decreased seasonally from a high level, while the exchange nickel inventory continued to accumulate at a high level. Technically, attention should be paid to the support at the 140,000 yuan mark [8]. 3. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs Industry Dynamics Copper - SMM reported that the LME copper futures price had fallen from its historical high recently, and Goldman Sachs pointed out that the upside space for copper prices might be limited in the near term and predicted a larger decline in the future [10]. Aluminum - Affected by the snowstorm, the bauxite mines in Henan Xin'an area suspended production on the night before yesterday and had gradually resumed work. Due to blocked road transportation, the ore supply decreased by about 80% and was expected to gradually resume shipping tomorrow. SMM would continue to monitor the resumption of production and transportation in the affected mining areas. In December 2025, China's primary aluminum imports were about 189,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 28.8% and a year - on - year increase of 17.2%. In 2025, the cumulative primary aluminum imports were about 2.547 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 19.2%. In December 2025, China's primary aluminum exports were about 38,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 29.3% and a year - on - year increase of 194.3%. In 2025, the cumulative primary aluminum exports were about 298,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of about 145.7%. In December 2025, China's net primary aluminum imports were 152,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 61.6% and a year - on - year increase of 2.0%. In 2025, the cumulative net primary aluminum imports were about 2.249 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 11.6% [11]. Nickel - On January 20, the price of SMM1 electrolytic nickel was 140,900 - 151,800 yuan/ton, with an average price of 146,350 yuan/ton, a 450 - yuan/ton increase from the previous trading day. The mainstream spot premium quotation range of Jinchuan 1 electrolytic nickel was 8,000 - 8,500 yuan/ton, with an average premium of 8,250 yuan/ton, a 400 - yuan/ton increase from the previous trading day. The spot premium and discount quotation range of domestic mainstream brand electrowon nickel was - 300 - 500 yuan/ton [12]. Relevant Charts Copper - The report provides charts on copper basis, copper month - spread, Shanghai electrolytic copper social inventory, global copper exchange inventory (SHFE + LME + COMEX), LME copper注销仓单比例, and SHFE warrant inventory [13][15][16]. Aluminum - The report includes charts on aluminum basis, electrolytic aluminum domestic social inventory, electrolytic aluminum overseas exchange inventory (LME + COMEX), aluminum rod inventory, Shanghai - London ratio, and aluminum month - spread [25][27][33]. Nickel - The report presents charts on nickel basis, nickel month - spread, LME inventory, SHFE inventory, LME nickel trend, and nickel ore port inventory [37][43][39].

Report Investment Ratings No investment ratings for the entire industry are provided in the report. Core Views - The geopolitical situation is escalating due to Trump's tariff announcements, affecting market risk - appetite across various asset classes. [5][15][17] - Different markets are in various states, with some facing supply - demand imbalances, while others are influenced by policy changes and seasonal factors. [2][24][30] Summary by Category Financial News and Comments Macro Strategy (Gold) - Fed Chair candidate Hasset is out, and Trump's tariff announcement boosts gold's safe - haven appeal. Gold is expected to be bullish in the short - term, and there is an opportunity to go long on the gold - silver ratio. [12][13] Macro Strategy (Foreign Exchange Futures - US Dollar Index) - Trump's tariff on European countries over Greenland raises geopolitical risks, and the US dollar index is expected to rise in the short - term. [15][18] Macro Strategy (US Stock Index Futures) - Geopolitical risks and uncertainty about the new Fed Chair lead to high - level oscillations in the US stock market during the earnings season. [22] Macro Strategy (Treasury Bond Futures) - The central bank conducts reverse repurchase operations. Bond market rebound momentum will weaken, with a short - term oscillatory trend and a bearish long - term outlook. [24][25] Macro Strategy (Stock Index Futures) - Regulators are cooling the stock market, and the spring rally needs new catalysts. The long - position strategy for stock indices can be maintained. [26] Commodity News and Comments Black Metals (Coking Coal/Coke) - The port coke spot market is weak. The spot price is supported by downstream restocking, but the upward momentum of the futures is limited, with a short - term oscillatory trend. [28] Black Metals (Steam Coal) - Indonesian low - calorie steam coal prices are stable. Considering the cold wave in February, coal consumption is expected to rise, and coal prices are expected to remain flat. [30] Black Metals (Iron Ore) - Congo (DRC) restarts a large - scale iron ore export project. Iron ore prices are expected to continue the oscillatory trend due to high inventory and weak demand. [31][32] Black Metals (Rebar/Hot - Rolled Coil) - Steel production and inventory data show that supply - demand contradictions are accumulating. Steel prices may be strong in the short - term but face high inventory risks later. [35][37] Agricultural Products (Soybean Oil/Rapeseed Oil/Palm Oil) - US biofuel policy and China - Canada trade agreements affect the oil market. Palm oil has short - term long - position opportunities, soybean oil can be a long - position variety, and rapeseed oil should be observed. [38][41] Agricultural Products (Sugar) - Indian sugar production is increasing, and demand is recovering. International sugar prices are expected to be strong in the short - term, and domestic sugar prices are expected to oscillate. [44][45] Agricultural Products (Cotton) - US cotton export sales are strong, but the upward momentum of the external market is limited. Domestic cotton prices are expected to oscillate and adjust before the Spring Festival. [51][52] Agricultural Products (Soybean Meal) - South American soybean harvest is promising, and domestic soybean meal supply is excessive. The May contract of soybean meal will remain weak. [53] Non - ferrous Metals (Copper) - There are issues in some copper mines. Macro - level factors weaken, and copper prices are expected to oscillate at high levels. [57][58] Non - ferrous Metals (Lithium Carbonate) - Supply disruptions and demand support lead to a situation where lithium carbonate prices are likely to rise. Look for long - position opportunities after the position and volatility stabilize. [62][63] Non - ferrous Metals (Lead) - LME's decision has a limited impact on lead. Lead fundamentals are weakening, and a short - selling strategy is recommended. [65][66] Non - ferrous Metals (Zinc) - Macro - sentiment weakens, but zinc fundamentals are not significantly weak. Zinc prices may oscillate and adjust in the short - term. [70] Non - ferrous Metals (Nickel) - Nickel supply is expected to shrink, and prices are likely to rise. Look for long - position opportunities on dips. [72][73] Non - ferrous Metals (Tin) - Tin price fluctuations intensify. Pay attention to customs data, processing fees, and consumer recovery. [77][78] Energy Chemicals (Liquefied Petroleum Gas) - With the decline of risk premiums, LPG prices are expected to oscillate horizontally. [80] Energy Chemicals (Carbon Emissions) - EU carbon prices are rising, with a short - term oscillatory and strong trend. [81][82] Energy Chemicals (Crude Oil) - US oil rig count increases, and the short - term upward momentum of oil prices is expected to weaken. [83][84]

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market is experiencing a strong upward trend driven by leveraged funds and retail investors, with significant contributions from speculative and foreign capital, leading to a notable increase in market risk appetite [1][3]. Group 1: Market Performance - During the first week of January 2026, the A-share market saw a substantial increase, with the Wind All A Index rising by 5.1% and the average daily trading volume surging over 700 billion yuan to 2.85 trillion yuan [1]. - The financing balance reached a historical high of 2.61 trillion yuan, accounting for 2.53% of the total A-share market capitalization, placing it in the 96th percentile historically since 2021 [3][10]. Group 2: Investor Sentiment - Retail investor sentiment has significantly improved, with net inflows of 155.7 billion yuan, marking the second-highest level in the past year [3][15]. - The activity of speculative funds has also increased, with an average daily trading volume of 31.4 billion yuan on the Long Hu List, reaching a six-month peak [3][17]. Group 3: Foreign Investment - Foreign capital has shown a renewed interest, with the average daily trading volume of the Stock Connect increasing by 98.6 billion yuan to 327.2 billion yuan, representing an increase of 0.73 percentage points in trading volume share [3][19]. - Passive foreign capital has turned into a slight net inflow of 6.7 million dollars, indicating a stronger attraction towards technology sectors [3][23]. Group 4: Macro Liquidity - The central bank's significant net withdrawal of 166 billion yuan has not tightened market liquidity, as interbank market interest rates have declined, maintaining a loose monetary environment [6][8]. - The RMB exchange rate appreciated to 6.98 against the US dollar, with the 2-year and 10-year China-US interest rate differentials narrowing [9]. Group 5: ETF Market Dynamics - The ETF market has shown structural divergence, with a slight net outflow of 390 million yuan from stock ETFs, while industry-themed ETFs attracted a net inflow of 13.6 billion yuan [25][26]. - Broad-based ETFs faced significant net outflows, particularly from the CSI A500-related ETFs, which saw a redemption of 13.1 billion yuan [25].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The positive statements in the central bank meeting boosted market sentiment. After the start of the year, the production of coal, coke and steel enterprises has recovered. The pre - holiday replenishment of raw materials by downstream enterprises supports the price - holding confidence of upstream enterprises. The short - term futures price fluctuates sharply, and cautious operation is recommended [2][3] Group 3: Summary by Related Content Market Performance - Last week, the ferrous metal sector generally rose, with coking coal rising more than 7%. The central bank emphasized promoting high - quality economic development and reasonable price recovery, strengthening the expectation of loose monetary policy and stimulating the sentiment of the ferrous metal sector with relatively low valuation to warm up [3] Supply Side - After the start of the year, coal mines have gradually resumed production. Last week, the output of coking raw coal and clean coal rebounded to 1899000 tons and 734000 tons respectively. The raw coal inventory at the mine end increased, while the clean coal inventory decreased. The daily customs clearance volume of Mongolian coal at the Ganqimaodu Port last week was 164600 tons, 37400 tons higher than the same period last year, and the port inventory remained at a relatively high level [3] Demand Side - In the past two weeks, the profit rate of steel mills has slightly expanded. The daily average hot metal output of blast furnaces stopped falling and rebounded. In the week of January 9th, it was 2.295 million tons, an increase of 20700 tons compared with the previous week and 51300 tons compared with the same period last year. It is expected to show a steady and small increase in the short - term, and the raw material replenishment rhythm of steel mills is expected to accelerate later [3]

Core Insights - Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) experienced strong inflows at the beginning of 2026, with over $1 billion net inflow in the first two trading days, indicating a resurgence in investor risk appetite. However, this optimism quickly faded as three consecutive days of outflows introduced new uncertainties regarding Bitcoin's price outlook [1][2]. Group 1: ETF Performance - The 11 Bitcoin spot ETFs listed in the U.S. recorded a total net outflow of $1.128 billion over the past three days, nearly erasing the $1.16 billion net inflow from the first two trading days of the year [3]. - The year-to-date inflow for Bitcoin ETFs is now nearly flat, suggesting that previous optimistic sentiments are being replaced by actual funding conditions [3]. Group 2: Market Sentiment - Vikram Subburaj, CEO of the Indian cryptocurrency exchange Giottus, noted that the ETF fund flows exhibit tactical characteristics, with inflows followed by moderate outflows, reflecting a rotation of funds rather than strong buying confidence [4]. - The tightening macro environment has dampened market risk appetite, affecting both the stock market and the cryptocurrency market [4]. Group 3: Bitcoin Price Movement - Amid the ETF outflows, the cryptocurrency market has entered a risk-off state, with Bitcoin's price dropping from a high of over $94,600 to around $90,000, and dipping below $89,300 during trading [4]. - The Coin Desk index, which is linked to meme coins and decentralized finance tokens, also experienced a decline from its peak earlier in the week [4]. Group 4: Upcoming Economic Data - The U.S. non-farm payroll report for December is set to be released, which may influence market expectations regarding Federal Reserve interest rate cuts and demand for risk assets, including cryptocurrencies [5]. - Predictions indicate that the U.S. economy added 55,000 jobs in December, a decrease from 64,000 in November, and below the 12-month average of 77,800 jobs [5].