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中信期货晨报:国内商品期货多数收跌,焦煤、氧化铝跌幅居前-20250827
Zhong Xin Qi Huo· 2025-08-27 07:21
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - U.S. economic fundamentals remain stable in the short - term but face employment and inflation pressures in the medium - term, with monetary easing expectations supporting market risk appetite. Domestic economic fundamentals are slightly weaker on a quarterly basis, but it's still not difficult to achieve the annual economic target, and market risk appetite may also be supported. In the short - term, the domestic market may maintain high sentiment, and external macro - monetary policy is expected to become looser. With the approach of important events and economic slowdown pressure, short - term market volatility may increase [9]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Macro Highlights - **Overseas Macro**: Powell's annual meeting speech was unexpectedly dovish at the global central bank summit, strengthening market expectations of interest rate cuts. The current fundamental expectations have weakened slightly, with consumer confidence deteriorating in August and housing construction showing mixed trends [9]. - **Domestic Macro**: In China, on one hand, the probability of a significant downturn in external demand has decreased, while domestic demand, such as consumption and investment, is still at a reasonable level. On the other hand, the capital market remains loose. Shanghai has optimized and adjusted real estate policies [9]. - **Asset View**: In the short - term, the domestic market may maintain high sentiment until after important events, when the pricing weight of fundamentals on assets may increase. Overseas, the expectation of interest rate cuts in September has strengthened, and the macro - monetary policy is expected to become looser. As important events approach and economic growth slows, short - term market volatility may increase [9]. 3.2 View Highlights - **Finance**: The stock market is trending upwards, and the linkage between stocks and bonds is weakening. Stock index futures and options are expected to rise with fluctuations, while treasury bond futures are expected to fluctuate [10]. - **Precious Metals**: The expectation of interest rate cuts in September is expanding, which is favorable for the prices of gold and silver, and they are expected to rise with fluctuations [10]. - **Shipping**: Attention should be paid to the rate of decline in freight rates for the European container shipping line, which is expected to fluctuate [10]. - **Black Building Materials**: With the strengthening of the cost side, black building materials are rebounding from low levels. Most varieties are expected to fluctuate, such as steel, iron ore, coke, etc. [10]. - **Non - ferrous Metals and New Materials**: The weak dollar supports non - ferrous metals, but weakening demand also needs attention. Most non - ferrous metal varieties are expected to fluctuate, and zinc is expected to decline with fluctuations [10]. - **Energy and Chemicals**: The supply - demand situation of crude oil has weakened significantly, and the weakening of coking coal has dragged down the chemical industry. Most varieties are expected to fluctuate, and some are expected to rise or fall with fluctuations, such as PX, PTA are expected to rise with fluctuations, while crude oil is expected to decline with fluctuations [12]. - **Agriculture**: The agricultural product market is oscillating at high levels, waiting for field inspection results. Most varieties are expected to fluctuate, and rubber and synthetic rubber are expected to rise with fluctuations [12].
宝城期货贵金属有色早报-20250827
Bao Cheng Qi Huo· 2025-08-27 01:56
Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on the report industry investment rating Core Views of the Report - Gold: In the short - term, it's expected to oscillate; in the medium - term, also oscillate; and on the day, it's expected to be weakly oscillating. The suggested approach is to wait and see. The core logic is that the growing expectation of interest rate cuts is favorable for the gold price, but there is significant technical pressure at the upper limit of the oscillation range [1][3]. - Copper: In the short - term, it's expected to rise; in the medium - term, oscillate; and on the day, it's expected to be strongly oscillating. The suggested approach is to be bullish in the short - term. The core logic is that the overseas macro situation is warming up, China is approaching the peak season, and industrial support is strengthening [1][5]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Gold - **Price Trend**: After Fed Chair Powell's speech at the Jackson Hole meeting last Friday, the gold price has been on an upward trend, and New York gold is approaching the $3450 mark, which is the upper limit of the oscillation range since the second quarter [3]. - **Market Expectation**: The market's expectation of interest rate cuts may have been reflected in the price, and currently, the market is more likely to price in two interest rate cuts this year [3]. - **Demand Change**: The recovery of market risk appetite has led to a continuous strong performance in the equity market, reducing the safe - haven demand for gold [3]. - **Technical Pressure**: Without other favorable factors, it's expected that the gold price will face significant technical pressure at the upper limit of the oscillation range [3]. Copper - **Price and Position Change**: The copper price stabilized and rebounded last night, and the open interest increased accordingly [5]. - **Macro Factors**: Fed Chair Powell's dovish speech at the Jackson Hole meeting increased market risk appetite, which is favorable for the copper price; the rebound of the US dollar index and the cooling of the domestic commodity market are negative factors for the copper price [5]. - **Industrial Factors**: As China is approaching the peak season, the social inventory of electrolytic copper is decreasing, and industrial support is gradually strengthening, so the copper price is expected to maintain a strong performance [5].
有色早报-20250827
Yong An Qi Huo· 2025-08-27 01:47
Group 1: Overall Market Sentiment - Market risk preference remained high this week despite weak domestic economic and financial data in July [1] Group 2: Copper - Downstream orders showed support around 7.8 this week, and the scrap-to-refined substitution effect continued to appear [1] - In August, under the full supply pattern, a small inventory build-up is expected, but the market may focus more on the tight balance pattern after the off-season [1] Group 3: Aluminum - Supply increased slightly from January to June, with aluminum ingot imports contributing to the growth [2] - August demand is expected to be a seasonal off-season, with a possible slight improvement in the middle and late stages [2] - Aluminum exports improved month-on-month, while photovoltaic demand declined, and overseas demand dropped significantly [2] - In August, a small inventory build-up is expected [2] Group 4: Zinc - This week, zinc prices fluctuated widely [5] - On the supply side, domestic TC increased with difficulty, and some scattered orders even decreased, while imported TC further increased [5] - In August, the increase in smelting output was further realized, and the overseas mine output in the second quarter exceeded expectations [5] - On the demand side, domestic demand was seasonally weak, with limited growth but some resilience [5] - Overseas, European demand was average, but some smelters faced production resistance due to processing fees [5] - Domestically, social inventories fluctuated and increased, while overseas LME inventories decreased rapidly [5] - In the short term, zinc prices are expected to rebound supported by interest rate cut expectations and domestic commodity sentiment [5] - In the medium and long term, a short position is recommended [5] - For the domestic and overseas spread, a long domestic-short overseas position can be maintained [5] - For the monthly spread, a long near-month-short far-month position can be considered [5] Group 5: Nickel - On the supply side, pure nickel production remained at a high level [6] - On the demand side, overall demand was weak, and the premium remained stable recently [6] - On the inventory side, domestic and overseas nickel plate inventories remained unchanged [6] - In the short term, the fundamental situation is average, and the macro situation is mainly about anti-involution policy games [6] - The opportunity to shrink the nickel-stainless steel price ratio can continue to be monitored [6] Group 6: Stainless Steel - On the supply side, some steel mills cut production passively, and some in the north were affected by the military parade [7] - On the demand side, demand was mainly for rigid needs, and some replenishment increased due to the macro atmosphere [7] - In terms of costs, nickel iron and chromium iron prices remained stable [7] - In terms of inventory, inventories in Xijiao and Foshan decreased slightly, and exchange warehouse receipts remained unchanged [7] - Fundamentally, the situation remained weak, and in the short term, the macro situation followed anti-involution expectations [7] - Attention should be paid to the future policy direction [8] Group 7: Lead - This week, lead prices fluctuated [9] - On the supply side, the scrap volume was weak year-on-year, and the overall supply of waste batteries was tight due to the expansion of recycling plants [9] - Under low profits, recycled lead maintained low production, and demand had no obvious boost [9] - From April to July, the concentrate production increased, but the supply was in short supply due to smelting profits, and the TC quotation declined chaotically [9] - On the demand side, the battery finished product inventory was high, and the battery production rate increased this week, but the peak season was not prosperous [9] - The refined-scrap price difference was +25, and recycled lead shipments resisted price declines [9] - LME registered warehouse receipts increased by 10,000 tons [9] - In July and August, there were expectations of a peak season, and orders generally improved, but the destocking and lead ingot purchasing efforts of terminal consumers were weak this week [9] - This week, the willingness of downstream battery factories to receive goods rebounded, but the volume of receiving warehouse receipts was only in the thousands of tons, with limited strength [9] - The exchange inventory reached a historical high of 70,000 tons; when the price declined, recycled lead supported the price, and the refined-scrap price difference was +25 [9] - Lead ingot spot was at a discount of 25, mainly maintaining long-term orders [9] - In August, primary lead supply is expected to increase, recycled lead production will decrease, and demand will improve slightly, but it is still expected that the inventory will remain at a high level [9] - It is expected that lead prices will remain in a low-level fluctuation next week [9] Group 8: Tin - This week, tin prices fluctuated widely [12] - On the supply side, the processing fee for tin ore was at a low level, and some domestic smelters cut production [12] - In early September, Yunnan smelters will start maintenance [12] - Overseas, the Wa State symposium released some signals of resuming production, but short-term recruitment difficulties and long equipment recovery cycles restricted large-scale exports before October [12] - African tin ore will have an increase in the long term, but the short-term increase is unstable [12] - There may be a risk of inspecting mine caves in Indonesia [12] - On the demand side, the elasticity of solder was limited, and there were expectations of a peak season for terminal electronic consumption, but the decline in photovoltaic growth was expected to be strong [12] - Domestic inventory decreased slightly in a fluctuating manner; overseas consumption was strong, and LME inventory was at a low level [12] - On the spot side, small-brand tin ingots were still in short supply, and most of the exchange inventory was high-priced Yunzi brand, and downstream had no strong willingness to pick up the goods [12] - Domestically, the short-term supply and demand situation remained weak, and attention should be paid to the possible short-term supply-demand mismatch from September to October and the impact of interest rate cut expectations on non-ferrous metals as a whole [12] - In the short term, it is recommended to wait and see; in the medium and long term, buy near the cost line [12] Group 9: Industrial Silicon - This week, the start-up rate of leading enterprises in Xinjiang was 67%, 32% in the west and 35% in the east, with a total increase of 8 units month-on-month, and the resumption of production was stable but still below market expectations [15] - The start-up rates in Sichuan and Yunnan increased slightly, and the monthly output was close to 120,000 tons [15] - In August, the supply-demand balance was still in a state of slight inventory reduction, and the core of the supply-demand balance was the rhythm and amplitude of Hoshine's resumption of production [15] - The unexpected production cut of leading enterprises had a significant marginal improvement effect on the supply-demand balance, and with the stable start-up of downstream silicone and polysilicon, the market's visible inventory decreased significantly [15] - The continuous high basis also led to the continuous cancellation of warehouse receipts [15] - In the short term, the resumption of production in the southwest and Hoshine continues to fall short of expectations, and the supply-demand balance in August is still slightly in short supply [15] - In the long term, the overcapacity of industrial silicon is still large, and the start-up rate is low [15] - Under the current cost curve structure, the potential start-up elasticity is high when the price reaches above 10,000 yuan, so the long-term outlook is still a cyclical bottom shock [15] Group 10: Lithium Carbonate - This week, the futures market fluctuated greatly due to the expected start-up of salt lakes and mica mines [17] - On the spot side, the peak season effect was obvious, the proportion of downstream supply decreased, the volume of scattered orders increased during the week, and the enthusiasm for replenishing at low prices was high [17] - The inquiry atmosphere was active, and the trading volume increased significantly compared with last week [17] - Since the level of spot available inventory was still high, the basis remained basically stable as a whole [17] - The basis of spodumene lithium carbonate was concentrated at 11,400 - 11,200 yuan, the basis of mica lithium carbonate was concentrated at 11,500 - 11,200 yuan, and the basis of old ore materials (March - May) was concentrated at 11,800 - 11,100 yuan [17] - The core contradiction of lithium carbonate is that under the background of long-term overcapacity and an unbalanced supply-demand pattern, the resource side faces periodic compliance disturbances [17] - With the approaching of the downstream seasonal peak season, the monthly balance after the gradual production cut of the smelter corresponding to CATL's mine has turned to continuous inventory reduction, and the performance of the peak season demand has a greater impact on the inventory reduction amplitude [17] - Therefore, in the current high macro sentiment, the price elasticity is large when the supply-side disturbance speculation is realized, and the downward support is strong [17]
有色早报-20250826
Yong An Qi Huo· 2025-08-26 02:09
Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - The risk appetite in the market has continued to rise this week. Despite the poor performance of domestic economic and financial data, the stock market sentiment remains high. In the fundamentals, the downstream orders in copper have shown support around 7.8, and the substitution effect of refined and scrap copper has continued to appear. In August, with full - scale supply, a small increase in inventory is expected, but the market may focus more on the tight - balance pattern after the off - season [1]. - For aluminum, supply has increased slightly from January to June due to aluminum ingot imports. August is expected to be a seasonal off - season for demand, with a possible slight improvement in the middle and late stages. Aluminum product exports have improved month - on - month, while photovoltaic demand has declined, and overseas demand has dropped significantly. An inventory increase is expected in August. In the short - term off - season, attention should be paid to demand. In the low - inventory pattern, attention should be paid to far - month spreads and internal - external reverse arbitrage [2]. - Zinc prices have fluctuated widely this week. On the supply side, domestic TC has not increased smoothly, while imported TC has further increased. In August, the increase in smelting output has been further realized. On the demand side, domestic demand is seasonally weak but has some resilience, and overseas, there may be a shortage of supply in some periods. Domestically, social inventory has fluctuated and increased, while overseas LME inventory has decreased rapidly. In the short - term, zinc prices are expected to rebound, and it is recommended to wait and see; in the long - term, a short - position configuration is recommended. Internal - external positive arbitrage can be continued, and attention can be paid to positive arbitrage opportunities in month spreads [5]. - For nickel, pure nickel production remains at a high level. Demand is generally weak, and the premium has been stable recently. Nickel plate inventories at home and abroad remain stable. In the short - term, the fundamentals are average, and the macro - level is mainly about anti - involution policy games. With the increasing expectation of interest rate cuts in the US, opportunities for narrowing the nickel - stainless steel price ratio can continue to be monitored [6]. - For stainless steel, some steel mills have cut production passively. Demand is mainly for rigid needs, and some restocking has increased due to the macro - environment. Nickel and chromium iron prices remain stable. Inventories in Xijiao and Foshan have decreased slightly, and exchange warehouse receipts remain stable. Fundamentals are generally weak, and in the short - term, the macro - level follows the anti - involution expectation, and attention should be paid to future policy trends [6]. - Lead prices have fluctuated this week. On the supply side, the scrap volume is weak year - on - year, and the supply of waste batteries is tight. The production of recycled lead remains at a low level, and the TC quotation is in a mess. On the demand side, the inventory of battery products is high, and the peak season is not prosperous. Although there is an expectation of a peak season from July to August, the terminal consumption and lead ingot procurement are weak this week. In August, primary supply is expected to increase, recycled production may decrease, and demand will improve slightly, but the inventory is still expected to remain at a high level. It is expected that lead prices will remain in a low - level fluctuation next week [8]. - Tin prices have fluctuated widely this week. On the supply side, the processing fee of tin ore is at a low level, and some domestic smelters have cut production. Overseas, the resumption of production in Wa State is restricted in the short - term, and African tin ore has unstable short - term output. On the demand side, the elasticity of solder is limited, and there is an expectation of a peak season for terminal electronic consumption, but the growth rate of photovoltaic demand is expected to decline. Domestic inventory has decreased slightly, while overseas consumption is strong, and LME inventory is at a low level. In the short - term, it is recommended to wait and see; in the long - term, it is advisable to hold positions near the cost line when the price is low [11]. - For industrial silicon, the resumption of production in Xinjiang, Sichuan, and Yunnan is slower than expected. In August, the supply - demand balance is in a state of slight inventory reduction. The core of the supply - demand balance lies in the resumption rhythm and amplitude of Hesheng. In the short - term, the supply - demand balance may remain tight. In the long - term, due to over - capacity, the price is expected to fluctuate at the bottom of the cycle [14]. - For lithium carbonate, the futures market has fluctuated greatly this week due to the expected start - up of salt lakes and mica mines. In the spot market, the peak season effect is obvious, and the inventory is still high. The core contradiction is the long - term over - capacity and short - term resource - end compliance disturbances. With the arrival of the downstream peak season, the monthly balance has turned to continuous inventory reduction, and the price has strong downward support [16]. 3. Summary by Metal Copper - **Price and Inventory Data**: From August 19 to 25, the spot premium remained unchanged at 150, the scrap - refined copper price difference increased by 401, and the SHFE inventory decreased by 401. The spot import profit decreased by 432.51 [1]. - **Market Analysis**: Market risk appetite remains high. Downstream orders have support around 7.8, and the substitution effect of refined and scrap copper is obvious. The waste copper market is disturbed, and if the production of recycled copper rods continues to decline, it may stimulate the consumption of refined copper. In August, a small increase in inventory is expected, but the market may focus on the post - off - season tight - balance pattern [1]. Aluminum - **Price and Inventory Data**: From August 19 to 25, the Shanghai aluminum ingot price increased by 70, and the domestic alumina price decreased by 3. The SHFE social inventory increased by 54.10, and the exchange inventory remained unchanged [1]. - **Market Analysis**: Supply has increased slightly, and August is a seasonal off - season for demand, with a possible slight improvement later. Aluminum product exports have improved, while photovoltaic and overseas demand have declined. An inventory increase is expected in August. Attention should be paid to demand in the short - term and far - month spreads and internal - external reverse arbitrage in the low - inventory pattern [2]. Zinc - **Price and Inventory Data**: From August 19 to 25, the Shanghai zinc ingot price increased by 110, and the social inventory remained unchanged. The LME zinc inventory decreased, and the SHFE futures import profit decreased by 90.69 [5]. - **Market Analysis**: Zinc prices have fluctuated widely. Domestic TC has not increased smoothly, while imported TC has increased. In August, smelting output has increased. Domestic demand is seasonally weak but has resilience, and overseas, there may be a short - term supply shortage. Social inventory has increased, and LME inventory has decreased rapidly. In the short - term, zinc prices are expected to rebound, and long - term short - position configuration is recommended. Internal - external positive arbitrage can be continued, and attention can be paid to positive arbitrage opportunities in month spreads [5]. Nickel - **Price and Inventory Data**: From August 19 to 25, the price of 1.5% Philippine nickel ore remained unchanged at 57.0, and the SHFE nickel spot price increased by 700. The spot import profit decreased, and the futures import profit decreased by 1465.31 [6]. - **Market Analysis**: Pure nickel production remains high, demand is weak, and the premium is stable. Nickel plate inventories at home and abroad remain stable. In the short - term, the fundamentals are average, and the macro - level is about policy games. Opportunities for narrowing the nickel - stainless steel price ratio can continue to be monitored [6]. Stainless Steel - **Price and Inventory Data**: From August 19 to 25, the price of 304 cold - rolled coil increased by 50, and the price of 304 hot - rolled coil increased by 25 [6]. - **Market Analysis**: Some steel mills have cut production passively. Demand is mainly for rigid needs, and some restocking has increased. Nickel and chromium iron prices remain stable. Inventories in Xijiao and Foshan have decreased slightly, and exchange warehouse receipts remain stable. Fundamentals are weak, and attention should be paid to future policy trends [6]. Lead - **Price and Inventory Data**: From August 19 to 25, the spot premium decreased by 5, and the social inventory remained at 6. The LME registered warehouse receipts increased by 10,000, and the futures import profit decreased by 25.37 [8]. - **Market Analysis**: Lead prices have fluctuated. Supply is tight, and the production of recycled lead is low. Demand is weak, and the battery market is in a non - prosperous peak season. Although there is a peak - season expectation from July to August, terminal consumption and lead ingot procurement are weak this week. In August, primary supply is expected to increase, recycled production may decrease, and demand will improve slightly, but the inventory is still expected to remain high. Lead prices are expected to remain in a low - level fluctuation next week [8]. Tin - **Price and Inventory Data**: From August 19 to 25, the spot import profit decreased, and the LME inventory increased. The trading volume increased by 599 [11]. - **Market Analysis**: Tin prices have fluctuated widely. Supply is restricted by low processing fees and production cuts at home and abroad. Demand has an expectation of a peak season for electronic consumption but a decline in photovoltaic growth. Domestic inventory has decreased slightly, and overseas consumption is strong. In the short - term, it is recommended to wait and see; in the long - term, it is advisable to hold positions near the cost line when the price is low [11]. Industrial Silicon - **Price and Inventory Data**: From August 19 to 22, the 421 Yunnan basis decreased to - 345, and the 553 East China basis decreased to 505. The number of warehouse receipts decreased from 51,166 to 51,049 [14]. - **Market Analysis**: The resumption of production in Xinjiang, Sichuan, and Yunnan is slower than expected. In August, the supply - demand balance is in a state of slight inventory reduction. The core of the supply - demand balance lies in the resumption rhythm and amplitude of Hesheng. In the short - term, the supply - demand balance may remain tight. In the long - term, due to over - capacity, the price is expected to fluctuate at the bottom of the cycle [14]. Lithium Carbonate - **Price and Inventory Data**: From August 19 to 25, the SMM electric - grade lithium carbonate price decreased by 1400 to 82,500, and the SMM industrial - grade lithium carbonate price decreased by 1400 to 80,200. The main - contract basis decreased by 1820, and the number of warehouse receipts increased by 640 [16]. - **Market Analysis**: The futures market has fluctuated greatly due to supply - side disturbances. In the spot market, the peak - season effect is obvious, and the inventory is still high. The core contradiction is long - term over - capacity and short - term resource - end compliance disturbances. With the arrival of the downstream peak season, the monthly balance has turned to continuous inventory reduction, and the price has strong downward support [16].
宝城期货贵金属有色早报-20250826
Bao Cheng Qi Huo· 2025-08-26 01:40
Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2) Core Viewpoints of the Report - Gold is expected to be strong in the short - term, with short - term, medium - term, and intraday trends being oscillatory, and intraday being oscillatory and bullish. The core logic is that Powell's dovish remarks at the Jackson Hole meeting have increased the expectation of interest rate cuts, which is beneficial to the gold price. However, the market's risk appetite has recovered, reducing the safe - haven demand for gold [1][3]. - Copper is expected to be strong in the short - term, with short - term trends being upward, medium - term and intraday trends being oscillatory, and intraday being oscillatory and bullish. The core logic is that overseas macro conditions have improved, China is approaching the peak season, and industry support has been enhanced [1][4]. 3) Summary by Related Catalogs Gold - **Price Trends**: After Powell's speech at the Jackson Hole meeting last Friday, the gold price oscillated and adjusted yesterday. The market is still pricing in a relatively high probability of two interest rate cuts within the year [3]. - **Core Logic**: Powell's dovish remarks at the Jackson Hole meeting increased the expectation of interest rate cuts, which is beneficial to the gold price. However, the recovery of the market's risk appetite has led to a continuous strong performance in the equity market, reducing the safe - haven demand for gold. Attention can be paid to the long - short game of New York gold at $3400 [1][3]. Copper - **Price Trends**: The intraday price of copper pulled up in the late session, with the main contract price approaching the 80,000 - yuan mark, and it maintained an oscillatory operation at night [4]. - **Core Logic**: At the macro level, Powell's dovish speech at the Jackson Hole meeting significantly increased the market's risk appetite, which is beneficial to the copper price. At the industrial level, China is approaching the peak season, the social inventory of electrolytic copper is decreasing (Mysteel's electrolytic copper social inventory on Monday was 120,000 tons, a decrease of 9,600 tons compared to last Thursday), and industry support is gradually strengthening. It is expected that the copper price will maintain a strong operation, and attention can be paid to the long - short game at the 80,000 - yuan mark [4].
美元强势反弹,创近一个月最大单日涨幅,金价短期承压
Mei Ri Jing Ji Xin Wen· 2025-08-26 01:35
Group 1 - The US dollar index increased by 0.72%, marking the largest single-day gain in nearly a month, which negatively impacted gold prices [1] - COMEX gold futures closed down 0.23% at $3410.7 per ounce, while the gold ETF Huaxia (518850) rose by 0.69%, with net inflows in 7 out of the last 10 trading days, totaling 190 million [1] - The SPDR Gold Trust, the world's largest gold ETF, reported a holding of 958.49 tons, an increase of 1.72 tons from the previous trading day [1] Group 2 - Market expectations for interest rate cuts may have already been priced in, with a high probability of two rate cuts within the year [1] - A rebound in market risk appetite has led to a strong performance in equity markets, resulting in decreased demand for gold as a safe-haven asset [1] - Continuous attention is advised on the $3400 level for gold, indicating a potential battle between bulls and bears [1]
A股成交额破3万亿为历史次高
Dong Zheng Qi Huo· 2025-08-26 00:42
1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - A-shares continued their unilateral upward trend, with the liquor sector catching up, indicating market recognition of the market. Shanghai's real - estate policy adjustment sent a clear signal to support the real - estate market. The A - share trading volume reached 3.18 trillion yuan, the second - highest in history [2][23][26]. - In the bond market, although the expectation of loose monetary policy increased, caution was still recommended in the short term, and chasing high was not recommended [3][29]. - Steel prices oscillated. The increase in market risk appetite and strong coking coal prices supported steel prices, but there was still inventory accumulation pressure, limiting the upward movement [4][45]. - Zinc prices were expected to oscillate in the short term. Both domestic and overseas macro factors were positive, but the upward height of Shanghai zinc might be restricted by domestic fundamentals [5][74]. - PTA's short - term unilateral price was expected to be oscillating and slightly stronger. Considering the forced cancellation of 09 warehouse receipts, a 10 - 1 long - short spread strategy could be attempted at low levels [6][84]. 3. Summary According to the Catalog 3.1 Financial News and Comments 3.1.1 Macro Strategy (Gold) - US President Trump considered renegotiating the US - South Korea agreement and increasing purchases from South Korea. US new home sales in July were 652,000 units, slightly higher than expected. Gold prices oscillated and closed down. The market's expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut slightly decreased. In the long term, the Fed's interest rate cut space was limited. The dollar rebounded, putting pressure on gold prices. It was recommended to pay attention to the risk of correction in the short term [13][14][15]. 3.1.2 Macro Strategy (Foreign Exchange Futures - US Dollar Index) - Dallas Fed President Logan said the money market might face temporary pressure at the end of the quarter, but the Fed still had room to reduce the balance sheet. The meeting between Russian and Ukrainian leaders was not arranged, and the US dollar was expected to oscillate in the short term [16][18][19]. 3.1.3 Macro Strategy (US Stock Index Futures) - The market became more cautious before NVIDIA's earnings report, but with the support of interest - rate cut expectations, the market risk appetite remained high. The stock index was expected to be oscillating and slightly stronger in the near future [21][22]. 3.1.4 Macro Strategy (Stock Index Futures) - A - share trading volume reached a historical second - high, and Shanghai optimized real - estate policies. It was recommended to hold long positions in stock index futures [23][26][27]. 3.1.5 Macro Strategy (Treasury Bond Futures) - The central bank conducted 288.4 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations and 600 billion yuan of MLF operations. The bond market strengthened, but caution was still needed in the short term, and chasing high was not recommended [28][29][30]. 3.2 Commodity News and Comments 3.2.1 Agricultural Products (Soybean Meal) - Brazil's soybean exports in August increased year - on - year, and the good - quality rate of US soybeans rose. Domestic oil - mill soybean meal inventory increased. Soybean meal futures prices were expected to be oscillating and slightly stronger [31][32][35]. 3.2.2 Agricultural Products (Soybean Oil/Rapeseed Oil/Palm Oil) - Malaysian palm oil exports from August 1 - 25 increased by 10.89% year - on - year. It was recommended to buy on dips, focusing on the production recovery in Indonesia and Malaysia [36]. 3.2.3 Agricultural Products (Cotton) - Pakistan's new cotton listing volume decreased year - on - year, and India's cotton planting area growth slowed. China issued 200,000 tons of sliding - scale duty processing trade quotas. Zhengzhou cotton was expected to be oscillating and slightly stronger in the short term, but the market was not optimistic during the peak new - cotton listing period in the fourth quarter [37][38][41]. 3.2.4 Black Metals (Rebar/Hot - Rolled Coil) - Shanghai adjusted housing purchase restrictions. Steel prices oscillated. There was inventory accumulation pressure, and the release of terminal demand was expected to be slow. It was recommended to adopt an oscillating trading strategy [42][45][46]. 3.2.5 Black Metals (Steam Coal) - Coal exports from three ports in North Queensland decreased month - on - month in July. The daily coal consumption was at the end of the seasonal high, and coal prices entered a weak consolidation phase. It was expected that coal prices would oscillate between 650 - 700 yuan [47]. 3.2.6 Black Metals (Iron Ore) - The central bank adjusted Shanghai's personal housing loan interest rate policy. Iron ore prices oscillated. Steel mills in the north reduced production, but the impact on raw materials was limited. It was recommended to wait and see [48][49]. 3.2.7 Agricultural Products (Corn Starch) - Corn starch exports increased in July, but the over - capacity and weak - demand situation was expected to continue [50]. 3.2.8 Agricultural Products (Corn) - Corn prices showed different trends. Futures oscillated around 2150. It was expected that the 2150 support level might be broken. It was recommended to hold short positions and pay attention to the 11 - 3 reverse spread [50][52]. 3.2.9 Agricultural Products (Red Dates) - Xinjiang's red - date producing areas entered the sugar - increasing stage. Futures prices oscillated. It was recommended to wait and see, paying attention to weather changes [53][54][55]. 3.2.10 Non - Ferrous Metals (Polysilicon) - China's photovoltaic cumulative installed capacity increased from January to July, but the single - month new - installed capacity in July decreased. The price of polysilicon was expected to be between 49,000 - 57,000 yuan/ton in the short term and was expected to reach over 60,000 yuan/ton in the long term [56][57][58]. 3.2.11 Non - Ferrous Metals (Industrial Silicon) - Dongyue Silicon Materials' safety improvement project was filed. The inventory of industrial silicon was expected to change according to the resumption of production of large factories in Xinjiang. The short - term price was expected to be between 8200 - 9500 yuan/ton [59][60]. 3.2.12 Non - Ferrous Metals (Nickel) - The Shanghai Futures Exchange's nickel futures warehouse receipts decreased. The macro - environment was expected to be positive in the short term, but the nickel market was in a supply - surplus situation in the medium term. It was recommended to pay attention to short - term trading opportunities and medium - term short - selling opportunities [61][62][63]. 3.2.13 Non - Ferrous Metals (Lithium Carbonate) - Pilbara Minerals' lithium concentrate production increased in the 2025 fiscal year. It was recommended to pay attention to buying on dips and long - short spread opportunities [64][65]. 3.2.14 Non - Ferrous Metals (Copper) - Marimaca Copper planned to acquire a sulfuric acid plant to reduce costs. US scrap - copper traders redirected shipments to avoid Chinese tariffs. Copper prices were expected to be slightly stronger in the short term, but the upward space was limited [66][67][69]. 3.2.15 Non - Ferrous Metals (Lead) - The LME lead spread was at a discount, and Henan restricted the entry of vehicles below the National V emission standard. Lead prices oscillated, and the supply - demand situation was weak. It was recommended to wait and see [70][71][72]. 3.2.16 Non - Ferrous Metals (Zinc) - The LME zinc spread was at a discount, and Bolivia's zinc concentrate production decreased. Domestic zinc inventory increased. Zinc prices were expected to oscillate in the short term. It was recommended to wait and see on the long - short side and pay attention to medium - term long - short spread opportunities [73][74]. 3.2.17 Energy and Chemicals (Liquefied Petroleum Gas) - The spot price in East China was stable, and the CP recommended price was announced. The PG domestic price was expected to be slightly stronger before the sentiment was digested, and attention should be paid to narrowing the PG - FEI spread [75][76][77]. 3.2.18 Energy and Chemicals (Asphalt) - Asphalt refinery inventory decreased, and social inventory remained flat. The asphalt market was in a fragile state, and it was recommended to wait and see [78][79]. 3.2.19 Energy and Chemicals (PX) - PX prices rose slightly. The short - term price was expected to be oscillating and slightly stronger, and it was recommended to buy on dips [80][81]. 3.2.20 Energy and Chemicals (PTA) - PTA spot prices declined, and the market was quiet. The short - term price was expected to be oscillating and slightly stronger, and a 10 - 1 long - short spread strategy could be attempted at low levels [82][84][85]. 3.2.21 Energy and Chemicals (Caustic Soda) - The price of liquid caustic soda in Shandong increased, and the downstream receiving sentiment was positive. The price was expected to be stable in the short term, and it was recommended to be cautious when chasing high [85][86]. 3.2.22 Energy and Chemicals (Pulp) - The imported wood pulp spot market was mostly stable. The pulp market was expected to oscillate [87][89]. 3.2.23 Energy and Chemicals (PVC) - The domestic PVC powder market price increased slightly. The PVC market was expected to oscillate in the short term [90]. 3.2.24 Energy and Chemicals (Urea) - The urea market was weak, and new orders were scarce. The 01 contract was expected to oscillate in the short - to - medium term [92][93]. 3.2.25 Energy and Chemicals (Bottle Chips) - Bottle - chip factory export quotes were mostly stable. Attention should be paid to the pressure on processing fees caused by device restart and new - capacity release [93][94]. 3.2.26 Energy and Chemicals (Styrene) - Styrene port inventory increased. Styrene was expected to be slightly stronger in September but might face inventory accumulation pressure in the fourth quarter. Attention should be paid to policy variables [95][96][97]. 3.2.27 Shipping Index (Container Freight Rate) - Maersk planned to invest $1 billion to develop Indian ports. The container freight rate was expected to continue to decline, and the 10 - contract was expected to test the support level of 1300 [98][99][100].
鲍威尔讲话偏鸽,利好金价
Bao Cheng Qi Huo· 2025-08-25 11:48
1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - On August 22, 2025, at 22:00 Beijing time, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell's speech at the Jackson Hole meeting was generally interpreted as "dovish." His speech signaled that the Fed is more concerned about employment and economic growth when balancing the risks of "rising inflation" and "falling employment." It paved the way for a near - term interest rate cut and revised the Fed's monetary policy framework [3][23]. - After Powell's speech, the short - term interest rate cut expectation increased, which is positive for the gold price. However, the warming of market risk appetite is negative for the gold price. The market is still more likely to price in two interest rate cuts this year. It is advisable to continuously monitor the long - short game of New York gold at $3400 [3][23]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review 3.1.1 Weekly Trend - The report shows the dollar index linkage graph, but no specific text description of the weekly trend is provided [6]. 3.1.2 Indicator Price Changes | Indicator | August 22 | August 15 | Weekly Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | COMEX Gold | $3,417.20 | $3,381.70 | 1.05% | | COMEX Silver | $38.88 | $38.02 | 2.26% | | SHFE Gold Main Contract | $773.40 | $775.80 | - 0.31% | | SHFE Silver Main Contract | $9,192.00 | $9,204.00 | - 0.13% | | Dollar Index | 97.72 | 97.85 | - 0.14% | | USD/CNH | 7.17 | 7.19 | - 0.24% | | 10 - year US Treasury Real Yield | 1.85 | 1.95 | - 0.10 | | S&P 500 | 6,466.91 | 6,449.80 | 0.27% | | WTI Crude Oil Continuous | $63.77 | $63.14 | 1.00% | | COMEX Gold - Silver Ratio | 87.89 | 88.95 | - 1.19% | | SHFE Gold - Silver Ratio | 84.14 | 84.29 | - 0.18% | | SPDR Gold ETF | 956.77 | 965.37 | - 8.60 | | iShare Gold ETF | 451.68 | 453.29 | - 1.61 | [7] 3.2 Rising Interest Rate Cut Expectations Benefit Gold Prices - Last week, the gold price was under pressure due to the improving relations between the US and Russia, the potential end of the Russia - Ukraine war, and the improving global geopolitical situation. However, on Friday night, after Powell's dovish speech, the market's interest rate cut expectation increased, the dollar index plunged, and the gold price jumped [9]. - Last week, there was a divergence among US stock indices, with technology stocks represented by the Nasdaq generally correcting. But after Powell's dovish speech on Friday night, US stocks rose sharply again, and market risk appetite recovered [11]. 3.3 Tracking of Other Indicators - According to data on August 19, compared with the previous week, the long - position change was - 12,838 contracts, the short - position change was 4,057 contracts, and the net long - position change was - 16,895 contracts. This indicator is more sensitive to the price trend of precious metals than gold ETFs but has a lower update frequency and poor timeliness [13]. - Recently, the holdings of precious metal ETFs have decreased, especially gold ETFs. Last week, the gold price was weak, the silver price was strong, and the gold - silver ratio declined [15][18]. 3.4 Conclusion - Powell's speech at the Jackson Hole meeting was dovish, increasing short - term interest rate cut expectations, which is positive for the gold price. However, the warming of market risk appetite is negative for the gold price. The market is still more likely to price in two interest rate cuts this year. It is advisable to continuously monitor the long - short game of New York gold at $3400 [23].
国债期货日报-20250825
Rui Da Qi Huo· 2025-08-25 09:32
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core View of the Report - On August 25, the yields of treasury bond spot bonds strengthened collectively, and treasury bond futures also rose. The domestic economic fundamentals showed mixed performance, with the financial data in July being structurally differentiated and the medium - and long - term financing momentum of enterprises and residents still insufficient. Overseas, there are expectations of a Fed rate cut in September. The bond market is currently suppressed by market risk appetite and lacks independent upward momentum. The central bank's monetary policy will continue a moderately loose tone but with limited scope for overall easing. As a result, the interest rate center lacks the impetus to decline further, and the rebound of treasury bond futures is insufficient. It is recommended to pay attention to the phased recovery opportunities of treasury bond futures [2] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market Conditions - **Closing Prices and Volume**: T, TF, TS, and TL main contract closing prices increased by 0.27%, 0.15%, 0.1%, and 0.78% respectively. T, TS, and TL main contract trading volumes decreased by 14,647, 14,715, and 9,853 respectively, while TF main contract trading volume increased by 727 [2] - **Futures Spreads**: Most of the futures spreads changed, with some spreads increasing and some decreasing. For example, the TL2512 - 2509 spread increased by 0.12 to - 0.39, and the T12 - TL12 spread decreased by 0.53 to - 8.85 [2] - **Futures Positions**: The main contract positions of T, TF, TS, and TL all decreased, with decreases of 7,135, 9,542, 4,990, and 4,719 respectively. The net short positions of the top 20 in each contract all increased [2] 3.2 CTD and Active Bonds - **CTD Bonds**: The net prices of several CTD bonds increased, such as 220019.IB increasing by 0.1358 to 105.7269 [2] - **Active Bonds**: The yields of 1 - year active bonds remained unchanged, 3 - year yields decreased by 0.50bp, and 5 - year, 7 - year, and 10 - year yields increased by 1.75bp, 1.75bp, and 2.40bp respectively [2] 3.3 Interest Rates - **Short - term Interest Rates**: The overnight silver pledge rate decreased by 14.78bp to 1.3022%, the Shibor overnight rate decreased by 6.20bp to 1.3560%. The 7 - day silver pledge rate increased by 14.77bp to 1.5977%, and the Shibor 7 - day rate increased by 2.10bp to 1.4840% [2] - **LPR Rates**: The 1 - year and 5 - year LPR rates remained unchanged at 3.00% and 3.5% respectively [2] 3.4 Public Market Operations - On August 25, the central bank conducted 600 billion yuan of 1 - year MLF operations. With 300 billion yuan of MLF maturing on August 26, the net MLF investment in August reached 300 billion yuan, marking the sixth consecutive month of increased roll - overs [2] 3.5 Industry News - Shanghai's six departments jointly issued a notice on optimizing and adjusting real estate policies, including measures such as reducing housing purchase restrictions, optimizing housing provident funds, and personal housing credit policies, which will take effect on August 26, 2025 [2] 3.6 Key Events to Watch - August 28, 17:00, Eurozone August industrial sentiment index - August 29, 20:30, US July core PCE price index annual rate [2]
锌周报:风险偏好改善,锌价震荡偏强-20250825
Tong Guan Jin Yuan Qi Huo· 2025-08-25 06:42
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Last week, the main contract price of Shanghai zinc futures stopped falling and stabilized. The improvement of PMI data in Europe and the US and the dovish interpretation of Powell's speech at the Jackson Hole Central Bank Annual Meeting increased the market's expectation of a Fed rate cut in September, improving market risk appetite. Domestically, the A-share market continued to strengthen [3][10]. - Fundamentally, LME zinc inventories continued to decline, supporting the pattern of stronger overseas and weaker domestic zinc markets. Affected by concentrated arrivals, the zinc ore imports in July exceeded expectations, and refineries had sufficient raw material inventories, supporting stable production. The imports of refined zinc decreased in July as expected, and it is expected to remain at the current level. The smelting end maintained high supply, while downstream consumption did not improve significantly. After the decline in zinc prices, downstream buyers actively replenished their stocks at low prices, resulting in a slight decrease in inventories, but the sustainability remains to be seen [4][10]. - Overall, Powell's dovish stance boosted the rate - cut expectation and repaired market risk appetite. There were no new contradictions in the fundamentals. The decline in LME inventories and increased low - price purchases by domestic downstream provided support, but the high supply pressure from stable mining and smelting production suppressed zinc prices. Technically, the futures price found support near the previous low. In the short term, with the boost of macro - sentiment, zinc prices are expected to repair with a volatile and upward trend [4][11]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Transaction Data | Contract | August 15 | August 22 | Change | Unit | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | SHFE Zinc | 22505 | 22275 | - 230 | Yuan/ton | | LME Zinc | 2796.5 | 2805.5 | 9 | US dollars/ton | | Shanghai - London Ratio | 8.05 | 7.94 | - 0.11 | - | | SHFE Inventory | 76803 | 77838 | 1035 | Tons | | LME Inventory | 76325 | 68075 | - 8250 | Tons | | Social Inventory | 11.69 | 10.37 | - 1.32 | Ten thousand tons | | Spot Premium | - 50 | - 40 | 10 | Yuan/ton | [5] 3.2 Market Review - The decline of the main contract of Shanghai zinc futures (ZN2510) slowed down last week, and it stabilized and repaired in the second half of the week. The market was waiting for Powell's speech for rate - cut guidance, and the low - price purchases by downstream led to a slight decrease in weekly inventories, providing support. The contract finally closed at 22275 Yuan/ton, with a weekly decline of 1.02%. It rose during the Friday night session [6]. - LME zinc fluctuated narrowly in the first half of the week. The market revised its rate - cut expectation, and the US dollar stabilized and rebounded, suppressing the LME zinc price. On Friday, the rate - cut expectation recovered, and the contract closed at 2805.5 US dollars/ton, with a weekly increase of 0.32% [6]. - In the spot market, as of August 22, the mainstream transaction price of Shanghai 0 zinc was concentrated between 22220 - 22290 Yuan/ton, with a discount of 10 - 0 Yuan/ton to the 2509 contract. In different markets, the prices and discounts varied. In general, downstream low - price purchases were more frequent in the first half of the week, but with no obvious improvement in consumption, purchases decreased in the second half of the week, and traders' quotes remained stable, with the premium remaining weak [7]. - In terms of inventory, as of August 22, LME zinc inventory was 68075 tons, a weekly decrease of 8250 tons. SHFE inventory was 77838 tons, an increase of 1035 tons from the previous week. As of August 21, social inventory was 13.29 million tons, an increase of 0.37 million tons from August 14 and a decrease of 0.26 million tons from August 18. The decline in the zinc price center during the week boosted downstream purchasing enthusiasm, leading to a slight decrease in inventories in many places [8]. - Macroeconomically, the preliminary value of the US S&P Global Manufacturing PMI in August reached 53.3, the highest level since May 2022, far exceeding the expected 49.5. The service PMI slightly declined to 55.4, but the significant rebound in manufacturing pushed the composite PMI to a 9 - month high of 55.4. The preliminary value of the Eurozone PMI in August rebounded from 49.8 to 50.5, breaking above the boom - bust line for the first time since June 2022, higher than the expected 49.5. The US and the EU reached a framework for a trade agreement, with the EU promising to cancel all US industrial product tariffs and plan to purchase US energy and AI chips worth billions of dollars. The Fed's July meeting minutes showed a hawkish signal, but after Powell's speech, traders increased their bets on a Fed rate cut in September [8][9]. 3.3 Industry News - As of August 22, the average weekly domestic TC of SMM Zn50 was flat at 3900 Yuan/metal ton, and the SMM imported zinc concentrate index rose by 2.2 US dollars/dry ton to 92.5 US dollars/dry ton [12]. - According to customs data, in July, zinc concentrate imports were 501,400 tons, a month - on - month increase of 51.97% and a year - on - year increase of 33.58%. From January to July, the cumulative zinc concentrate imports were 3.0354 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 45.2%. In July, refined zinc imports were 17,900 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 50.35% and a year - on - year decrease of 2.97%. From January to July, the cumulative refined zinc imports were 209,900 tons, a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 12.72%. In July, galvanized sheet exports were 1.1975 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 5.86% and a year - on - year increase of 13%. In July, die - cast zinc alloy exports were 241.35 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 61.21% [12][13]. 3.4 Related Charts - The report provides multiple charts, including the price trend charts of SHFE zinc and LME zinc, the ratio of domestic and foreign markets, spot and LME premiums, inventory data of SHFE, LME, social and bonded areas, domestic and foreign zinc ore processing fees, zinc ore import profit and loss, refined zinc net imports, domestic refined zinc production, smelter profits, and downstream primary enterprise operating rates [15][16][17].