| | | | 第一部分 | 前言概要 2 | | --- | --- | | | 2 | | | 2 | | | 2 | | 第二部分 | 行情复盘与前瞻 3 | | | 3 | | | 4 | | 第三部分 | 宏观面因素 5 | | | 5 | | | 6 | | 第四部分 | 基本面因素 8 | | | 8 | | | 8 | | | 9 | | | 9 | | | 10 | | | 10 | | | 11 | | 第五部分 | 后市展望及策略推荐 12 | | | 免责声明 13 | 有色板块研发报告 贵金属 8 月报 2025 年 7 月 31 日 弱预期遭遇强现实 贵金属价格高位震荡 第一部分 前言概要 银河期货 第 2 页 共 13 页 有色板块研发报告 贵金属 8 月报 2025 年 7 月 31 日 第二部分 行情复盘与前瞻 图表 3：沪金盘面走势 单位：元/克 图表 4：沪银盘面走势 单位：元/千克 第 3 页 共 13 页 贵金属 8 月报 2025 年 7 月 31 日 图表 1：伦敦金盘面走势 单位：美元/盎司 图表 2：伦敦银盘面走势 单位：美元/盎司 有色板块研发报告 第 4 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Views Stock Index - The Federal Reserve has kept rates unchanged for five consecutive meetings. The initial estimate of the annualized quarterly growth rate of the US Q2 real GDP is 3%, better than expected. The Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee held a meeting to decide to convene the Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th CPC Central Committee and analyze and study the current economic situation and economic work. China's preliminary budget for child - rearing subsidies is 90 billion yuan, and applications will be accepted in late August. Domestic margin trading has reached a high level, while the proportion of fund holdings has declined, showing a divergent trend. Coupled with the fact that the Political Bureau meeting did not exceed expectations, there may be small fluctuations during the intensive disclosure period of mid - year reports in late August, and the stock index may fluctuate. [1] Treasury Bonds - At present, the external environment has not deteriorated significantly. Coupled with the fact that the focus of policy efforts in the second half of the year is on boosting consumption, optimizing the market competition mechanism, and ensuring the stable operation of the capital market, etc., against the background of a significant increase in market risk appetite, it may still pose certain constraints on the bond market. Whether it can fully recover to the starting point of this round of adjustment remains to be seen. [2] 3. Strategy Recommendations Stock Index - Fluctuate [1] Treasury Bonds - Fluctuate weakly [2] 4. Market Review Stock Index - The main contract futures of the CSI 300 index rose 0.04%, the main contract futures of the SSE 50 index rose 0.28%, the main contract futures of the CSI 500 index fell 0.42%, and the main contract futures of the CSI 1000 index fell 0.43%. [4] Treasury Bonds - The 10 - year main contract rose 0.15%, the 5 - year main contract rose 0.08%, the 30 - year main contract rose 0.40%, and the 2 - year main contract rose 0.03%. [5] 5. Technical Analysis Stock Index - The RSI indicator shows that the broader market has a risk of correction. [4] Treasury Bonds - The RSI indicator shows that the T main contract may rebound. [5] 6. Futures Data | Date | Futures Variety | Closing Price (Yuan/Contract) | Change (%) | Trading Volume (Lots) | Open Interest (Lots) | | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | | 2025 - 07 - 30 | CSI 300 Continuous | 4,136.40 | 0.04 | 81,931 | 162,604 | | 2025 - 07 - 30 | SSE 50 Continuous | 2,820.00 | 0.28 | 46,511 | 64,619 | | 2025 - 07 - 30 | CSI 500 Continuous | 6,215.40 | - 0.42 | 58,280 | 108,507 | | 2025 - 07 - 30 | CSI 1000 Continuous | 6,604.20 | - 0.43 | 144,840 | 185,002 | | 2025 - 07 - 30 | 10 - year Treasury Bond Continuous | 108.30 | 0.15 | 86,268 | 183,354 | | 2025 - 07 - 30 | 5 - year Treasury Bond Continuous | 105.63 | 0.08 | 72,345 | 141,731 | | 2025 - 07 - 30 | 30 - year Treasury Bond Continuous | 118.36 | 0.40 | 159,171 | 115,352 | | 2025 - 07 - 30 | 2 - year Treasury Bond Continuous | 102.34 | 0.03 | 38,836 | 98,577 | [6]

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘价为终点价格， 计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为下跌，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为上涨。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货 宝城期货贵金属有色早报（2025 年 7 月 29 日） ◼ 品种观点参考 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 黄金 | 2510 | 下跌 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 短线看弱 | 美对外关税协议逐步达成，市场 | | | | | | 偏弱 | | 风险偏好回升 | | 铜 | 2509 | 上涨 | 上涨 | 震荡 | 短线看强 | 市场消化美关税冲击后，内外宏 | | | | | | 偏强 | | 观经济回暖推升铜价 | 说明： 品种：黄金（AU） 日内观点：震荡偏弱 ...

Group 1 - Global financial markets are at a critical juncture, with rising copper prices signaling a recovery in market risk appetite following a trade agreement between the EU and the US [1] - The upcoming US-China meeting in Stockholm is expected to discuss extending the trade truce by 90 days, covering tariffs and cooperation in semiconductors and new energy [1] - The US Treasury Secretary indicated that negotiations may also address broader issues, including China's oil imports from Russia and Iran [1] Group 2 - Market focus this week includes the Federal Reserve's policy meeting, key economic data releases, and final details on US tariffs on industrial metals [1] - The market anticipates that the Federal Reserve will not lower interest rates in the upcoming meeting, but any changes in the policy statement will be crucial for future monetary direction [1] - The uncertainty surrounding US tariff policies has led to significant market reactions, with global traders accelerating copper shipments to the US to mitigate policy risks [2] Group 3 - Following the announcement of tariffs, US copper prices have maintained a premium over the London Metal Exchange (LME) benchmark, currently at approximately 31% [2] - As of 14:00 Beijing time, LME copper prices were reported at $9,800 per ton, with a daily increase of 0.1% and an intraday peak of 0.5% [2] - The short-term trajectory of copper prices will heavily depend on the finalization of US tariff details, alongside the Federal Reserve's policy direction and progress in US-China trade negotiations [2]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints - Last week, the gold price rose first and then fell, showing an inverted V-shaped trend. The upward movement was due to market concerns about the US tariff node on August 1st and the Fed's interest rate meeting at the end of July. However, positive trade signals from the US, Japan, Europe, and China reduced trade policy uncertainty, increasing market risk appetite and pressuring the gold price. Currently, the gold price is at a low level of oscillation since the second quarter, and the battle between bulls and bears at the $3300 mark can be observed [5][27]. - In the long term, since the second quarter, the gold price has been oscillating at a high level. Even the tense situation in the Middle East has not pushed the gold price to break through, indicating significant upward pressure. In the medium to long term, after the relaxation of US tariff policies and the easing of Sino-US relations, the market risk appetite has increased, the equity market has performed well, and the gold price has been under pressure, with the gold-silver ratio continuing to weaken. It is expected that the gold price will maintain an oscillating trend, and a straddle option combination can be considered. In the short term, attention can be paid to the Fed's interest rate meeting at the end of July and the latest US tariff policy on August 1st, which may impact the short-term market [5][27]. Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Market Review 1.1 Weekly Trend - The report presents a graph of the linkage between the US dollar index and the COMEX gold futures closing price [8]. 1.2 Indicator Price Changes | Indicator | July 25 | July 18 | Weekly Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | COMEX Gold | $3,338.50 | $3,355.50 | -0.51% | | COMEX Silver | $38.33 | $38.43 | -0.26% | | SHFE Gold Main Contract | 777.32 | 777.02 | 0.04% | | SHFE Silver Main Contract | 9,392.00 | 9,273.00 | 1.28% | | US Dollar Index | 97.67 | 98.47 | -0.82% | | US Dollar against Offshore RMB | 7.17 | 7.18 | -0.18% | | 10-Year US Treasury Real Yield | 1.96 | 2.03 | -0.07 | | S&P 500 | 6,388.64 | 6,296.79 | 1.46% | | US Crude Oil Continuous | $65.07 | $67.30 | -3.31% | | COMEX Gold-Silver Ratio | 87.11 | 87.33 | -0.25% | | SHFE Gold-Silver Ratio | 82.76 | 83.79 | -1.23% | | SPDR Gold ETF | 957.09 | 943.63 | 13.46 | | iShare Gold ETF | 449.60 | 446.96 | 2.64 | [9] 2. Gold Price Maintains Oscillating Trend - Last week, the gold price rose first and then fell, corresponding to a bottoming-out and rebound of the US dollar index, while the US Treasury yield remained weak. Positive trade policy signals from the US, Japan, and Europe reduced the short-term safe-haven demand for gold [11]. - The US stock market remained strong last week, with high market risk appetite, which pressured the gold price [13]. 3. Other Indicator Tracking - Since late May, the net long position of non-commercial traders on COMEX has been rising. As of July 22, compared with the previous week, the long position changed by 41,722 contracts, the short position by 1,799 contracts, and the net long position by 39,923 contracts. This indicator is more sensitive to the precious metal price trend than the gold ETF, but its update frequency is low and timeliness is poor [15]. - Since late May, the gold ETF has been climbing. In early June, the silver price rose significantly, with obvious ETF inflows, showing a combination of rising volume and price. After silver broke through the high in May 2024, capital attention increased rapidly, and it is expected to maintain its strength [17]. - Last week, the silver price rose first and then fell. In the first half of the week, the New York silver price approached $40 per ounce, and the Shanghai silver price reached 9,500 yuan per kilogram. As the gold price fell, the silver price also declined, and the gold-silver ratio rebounded slightly [20]. 4. Conclusion - The conclusion is consistent with the core viewpoints, emphasizing the short - and long - term trends of the gold price and suggesting attention to relevant events and investment strategies [5][27].

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Ratings - There is no specific industry - wide investment rating provided in the report 2) Core Views - For gold, the short - term view is bearish, the medium - term view is sideways, and the intraday view is sideways - bearish. The core logic is that the US has reached tariff agreements with other countries, leading to a rise in market risk appetite and pressure on gold prices [1][3] - For copper, the short - term view is bullish, the medium - term view is bullish, and the intraday view is sideways - bullish. After the market digested the impact of US tariffs, the recovery of the global macro - economy pushed up copper prices [1][4] 3) Summary by Related Catalogs Gold - **Price Movement**: Last week, the gold price showed an inverted V - shaped trend. The New York gold price hit the $3450 mark in the first half of the week and then fell below $3350 in the second half [3] - **Core Logic**: Market concerns about the US tariff deadline on August 1st and the Fed's interest - rate meeting at the end of July led to the early - week price increase. However, positive trade signals at the end of July reduced trade policy uncertainty, increased market risk appetite, and pressured gold prices. Currently, gold is at a low level since the second quarter, and the $3300 mark's long - short battle can be watched [3] Copper - **Price Movement**: Last week, the copper price also rose first and then fell. After the market digested the impact of US tariffs, the copper price rebounded with the global macro - economic recovery. The Shanghai copper price hit the 80,000 yuan mark, and the London copper price approached $10,000. In the second half of the week, due to increased long - short divergence in the domestic market and strong willingness of copper bulls to close positions, the copper price decreased significantly [4] - **Core Logic**: The inventory of electrolytic copper is low in China and high abroad, and the pattern of stronger domestic and weaker overseas copper prices may continue. The domestic downstream is in the off - season, inventory depletion has slowed down, and with the continuous improvement of macro - expectations, the futures price may maintain a pattern of near - term weakness and long - term strength. Short - term attention can be paid to the long - short battle at the 79,000 yuan mark of Shanghai copper [4]

Core Viewpoint - The report from Guotai Junan indicates that the continuous improvement in market risk appetite, along with the optimization of capital market systems, is expected to support the performance of Chinese equities [1][2]. Group 1: Market Risk Appetite and Asset Allocation - Recent improvements in market risk appetite have led to a significant outperformance of risk assets over safe-haven assets, with equities outperforming commodities and bonds [2]. - The report suggests a tactical overweight in A-shares and Hong Kong stocks due to optimistic economic outlooks, stable market liquidity, and improving risk appetite [2][3]. - The tactical allocation for U.S. and Japanese stocks has been adjusted to overweight, while a cautious stance is taken towards government bonds due to multiple pressures [2][6]. Group 2: Chinese Market Dynamics - Factors such as breakthroughs in technology, the ongoing theme of emerging industries, stable total policy expectations, and marginal fiscal support for infrastructure are expected to enhance market risk appetite and support Chinese equities [3]. - The report emphasizes that Chinese equity assets currently possess a high risk-return ratio and tactical allocation value [3]. Group 3: U.S. and Japanese Market Insights - The improvement in overseas risk appetite, particularly following the U.S.-Japan tariff agreement, has led to an upgraded tactical allocation for U.S. stocks to overweight, as the market adjusts its expectations regarding U.S. trade policies [4]. - Japanese stocks have been upgraded to a standard allocation as concerns over export trade have diminished, and the economic outlook remains positive despite some inflationary pressures [5]. Group 4: Government Bonds Outlook - The report indicates a downgrade in the tactical allocation for government bonds to underweight due to pressures from market risk appetite improvements, redemption pressures, and price volatility [6]. - The shift of funds from bonds to equities is noted, as investors seek better returns in a favorable equity performance environment [6].

黄金市场本周波动剧烈，最终金价本周收盘下滑，金价在看涨突破后未能稳定在3400美元/盎司上方，技术 面前景凸显黄金多头近期的犹豫不决。本周前两个交易日，现货黄金价格累计大涨2.4%，但金价在本周后 三个交易日累计的跌幅达到近3%。主要因为特朗普贸易谈判方面传来积极进展，市场风险偏好情绪回升， 这打击了黄金的避险需求。 下周二周三美联储重磅来袭 黄金：3350附近做空，防守3360，目标看3325，破位下看3310一线！ 所谓一个靠谱的人，凡事有交代，件件有着落，事事有回音，兴言一直致力于市场，唯有坚持写出对投资 者有用的分析，少错一单，那么我相信日久见方能见人心！ 责任编辑：赵兴言 对于下周黄金走势的看法！ 黄金周五出乎所有人的预料，延续弱势下跌，触及我们上周说到的4小时趋势线3335一线之后直接下跌走 弱，那么对于目前的趋势上来看，趋势偏空无反弹，那么弱势就将还会持续，只有跌幅到一定的位置筑底 之后才会有买盘的进场，而下周则延续看空即可！ 小时线上多空的轮转比较明显，前三天还是走的上行趋势通道，而后两天直接回吐所以涨幅重新构筑了新 的下行通道出来，那么3350这个位置就是我们下周继续看空的关键点位，毕竟4小 ...

Core Viewpoint - The bond market is experiencing significant adjustments due to multiple factors, leading to a continuous rise in yields, with the 10-year treasury yield reaching 1.7325% and the 30-year yield at 1.9475%, both at year-high levels [1][2] Group 1: Market Dynamics - A notable change in market risk appetite is the core driver putting pressure on the bond market, with the stock market breaking key levels and the Shanghai Composite Index nearing 3600 points, showing a weekly increase of 1.67% [2][3] - Commodity prices have surged, with lithium carbonate futures rising over 7% and polysilicon prices hitting new highs, which diminishes the relative attractiveness of bond assets [2][3] Group 2: Liquidity and Institutional Behavior - The liquidity situation has worsened since mid-July, with significant fluctuations in funding rates and the central bank's operations showing a net withdrawal of funds, leading to a spike in the 10-year treasury yield [2][4] - Institutional investors are accelerating withdrawals from the bond market, with redemption pressures on bond funds increasing significantly, and the net subscription index for public bond funds remaining negative since July 21, reaching a record single-day redemption of 29.2 on July 24 [4][5] Group 3: Future Market Expectations - There is a divergence in expectations regarding the future trajectory of the bond market, with some institutions cautious about the potential for further rate increases, while others believe yields are still at historical lows and may rise due to stable economic growth and improving inflation [5] - The current adjustment in the bond market is viewed as manageable, with the 10-year treasury yield rising approximately 7 basis points, which is still within a controllable range compared to historical adjustments [5]

Market Overview - Since the rebound began on April 8, the Shanghai Composite Index, Shenzhen Component Index, and ChiNext Index have increased by 16.05%, 19.26%, and 29.48% respectively as of July 25 [1] - The A-share financing balance has increased by 84.38 billion yuan since April 8, with a total of 140 billion yuan added to the market from financing and company buybacks [1][2] Financing and Investment Trends - As of July 24, the A-share financing balance reached 1.928 trillion yuan, marking a new high in over four months, with over 60% of trading days seeing an increase in financing balance [2] - The proportion of financing purchases in A-share trading volume exceeded 10% for four consecutive trading days from July 21 to 24, indicating strong market participation [2] - The top sectors for financing net purchases since April 8 include pharmaceuticals, automobiles, and non-ferrous metals, with net purchases of 15.06 billion yuan, 14.33 billion yuan, and 9.88 billion yuan respectively [2] Company Buybacks - A total of 836 companies have announced buybacks since April 8, with a total buyback amount of 54.24 billion yuan and 4.797 billion shares repurchased [3] - Leading companies in terms of buyback amounts include Kweichow Moutai, XCMG, and Midea Group, with buybacks of 3.603 billion yuan, 2.866 billion yuan, and 2.518 billion yuan respectively [3] Northbound Capital Inflows - Northbound capital holdings reached 2.29 trillion yuan by June 30, a 2.38% increase from the end of the first quarter, with significant investments in leading stocks like BYD and China Merchants Bank [4] - The increase in financing balance reflects improved confidence among retail and institutional investors, while company buybacks indicate positive business outlooks [4] Market Sentiment and Future Outlook - The total transaction amount on the "Dragon and Tiger List" reached 1.148 trillion yuan from April 8 to July 25, a year-on-year increase of 128.92% [5] - Institutions have shown a preference for the communications sector, while brokerage firms have favored the chemical raw materials sector [5][6] - Analysts predict that the A-share market will see a "sufficient total and differentiated structure" of incremental funds, with short-term reliance on leveraged funds and long-term dependence on policy dividends and industrial capital [7][8]