Core Viewpoint - The Singapore dollar remains stable against the US dollar during the Asian trading session, supported by risk-seeking investor sentiment [1] Group 1: Market Sentiment - Overnight US stock markets rose as investors regained their appetite for risk [1] - The market appears to generally believe that the Federal Reserve will lower interest rates at the upcoming Federal Open Market Committee meeting [1] Group 2: Currency Exchange Rates - According to data from the London Stock Exchange Group, the exchange rate of the US dollar against the Singapore dollar showed little change, reported at 1.2955 [1]

Group 1: Investment Ratings - No report industry investment rating is provided in the content [1] Group 2: Core Views - For gold, the short - term view is "偏强", the medium - term view is "震荡", the intraday view is "震荡偏强", and the reference view is "观望". The core logic is the升温 of interest - rate cut expectations and the easing of the Russia - Ukraine situation [1] - For copper, the short - term view is "震荡", the medium - term view is "强势", the intraday view is "强势", and the reference view is "长线看强". The core logic is macro - economic easing and mine - end production cuts [1] Group 3: Summary by Variety Gold - Yesterday in the domestic night session, the gold price weakened continuously, with New York gold dropping to 4200 US dollars and Shanghai gold falling below the 950 - yuan mark, then it stabilized and rebounded [3] - Since late November, the upward momentum of the gold price has come from the continuous increase in the Fed's interest - rate cut expectations and the decline of the US dollar index. The current market expectation of a Fed interest - rate cut in December is close to 90%, with limited upside space. The weak gold trend is due to the recovery of market risk appetite. Technically, attention should be paid to the 4200 - dollar support, corresponding to the 950 - yuan mark of Shanghai gold [3] Copper - Yesterday, the copper price rose and then fell again, with little change in the open interest. In the short term, the open interest of Shanghai copper increased from 510,000 contracts to 580,000 contracts, showing obvious upward movement with increased positions, strong upward momentum. But there is strong technical pressure above, facing the high - level pressure of the past five years, the long - short game intensifies, and the intraday fluctuation is large [4]

Core Insights - The recent surge in silver futures prices is attributed to supply tightness and positive market sentiment, with expectations of continued strength in silver prices due to short-term supply constraints and ample liquidity [1][2][3] Group 1: Price Movements - As of December 1, COMEX silver futures for March reached a historic high of $58.61 per ounce, while domestic silver futures closed at 13,278 yuan per kilogram, marking a 5.86% increase [1] - Year-to-date, COMEX silver futures have risen from $29.27 per ounce to $57.9 per ounce, reflecting a 97.81% increase, while domestic silver futures increased from 7,506 yuan per kilogram to 13,278 yuan per kilogram, a 76.9% rise [1] Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - Analysts indicate that the current strength in international silver prices is primarily driven by a supply shortage in the physical market, with expectations that this shortage will persist into the next year [1][2] - The global supply tightness of silver is highlighted as a significant factor, with the current market conditions not being influenced by traditional safe-haven attributes of precious metals [2] Group 3: Market Sentiment and Investment Trends - The silver futures market is experiencing heightened risk appetite among investors, with a notable increase in funds flowing into silver futures, surpassing 50.9 billion yuan in total [2] - The only silver futures-themed fund, Guotou Ruijin Silver Futures, has reported a year-to-date net value growth rate of 62.71%, with a total scale of 6.64 billion yuan [2]

期货研究报告 贵金属 姓名：龙奥明 宝城期货投资咨询部 从业资格证号：F3035632 投资咨询证号：Z0014648 贵金属 | 周报 · 2025 年 12 月 1 日 贵金属周报 专业研究·创造价值 金价反弹，金银比值下行明显 核心观点 上周金价上行，接近 11 月中旬高位，纽约金站上 4200 美元，沪 金站上 950 元关口。金价上行的动力主要来自于美联储降息预期持续 升温，美元指数高位回落。截至 11 月 30 日，市场预期 12 月美联储降 息概率已接近 90%，美元指数上周也是从 100 关口持续走弱。 短期临近美联储12月议息会议，美联储处于静默期，市场降息预 期可能维持，对应美元指数维持弱势运行，预计金价偏强运行。但中 长期金价走势相较于白银明显疲软，金银比值持续下行，美股也持续 走强，这很大程度上是市场风险偏好切换所致。技术上，可关注11月 中旬高位压力。 （仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议） 电话：0571-87006873 邮箱：longaoming@bcqhgs.com 作者声明 本人具有中国期货业协会授 予的期货从业资格证书，期货投 资咨询资格证书，本人承诺以勤 勉的职业态度，独立、 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Trump has determined the next Fed Chair nominee, likely Kevin Hassett, which is expected to increase market risk appetite and weaken the US dollar [2][13]. - After a sharp decline, the odds of the bond market have improved, but there is a risk of further adjustment as policy expectations rise [3][23]. - Due to floods in palm oil - producing areas, the supply pressure is expected to ease, and palm oil prices may rebound [4][25]. - CSPT's decision to cut copper production in 2026 and other factors are expected to drive copper prices to continue to rise [4][45]. - OPEC+ has decided to suspend production increases in Q1 2026, and short - term oil prices will maintain a volatile trend [5][67]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Financial News and Comments 3.1.1 Macro Strategy (Gold) - A data center cooling system problem in Chicago led to a trading halt at CME, causing disruptions in multiple markets. Gold rose about 1.5% and silver soared 5% on Friday, driven by expectations of Fed rate cuts. The Shanghai and Shanghai Gold Exchange silver inventories are falling, and the CME trading halt has reduced market liquidity. It is recommended to reduce positions [10]. 3.1.2 Macro Strategy (Foreign Exchange Futures - US Dollar Index) - The Japanese Finance Minister said the rapid yen depreciation is not driven by fundamentals. Trump has determined the next Fed Chair nominee, and it is expected that Hassett will be elected, leading to increased market risk appetite and a weaker US dollar [11][13]. 3.1.3 Macro Strategy (US Stock Index Futures) - Ukraine's new negotiation representative went to the US to discuss ending the war. The CME system failure caused trading interruptions. The US rate - cut expectations are rising, and the market risk appetite has improved. The US stock index is expected to continue to repair and show a strong - biased volatile trend [15][16]. 3.1.4 Macro Strategy (Stock Index Futures) - China's November official manufacturing PMI was 49.2, slightly up from the previous value. The National Development and Reform Commission held a private enterprise symposium. The stock market trading volume has shrunk, and there may be no trend - based market in the short term. It is recommended to evenly allocate long positions in stock indices [18][19]. 3.1.5 Macro Strategy (Treasury Bond Futures) - China's November official manufacturing PMI was 49.2, in line with expectations. The central bank conducted a 3013 - billion - yuan 7 - day reverse repurchase operation, with a net withdrawal of 737 billion yuan on the day. The bond market has a risk of further adjustment as policy expectations rise. It is recommended to short long - term bond varieties on rebounds [21][23]. 3.2 Commodity News and Comments 3.2.1 Agricultural Products (Soybean Oil/Rapeseed Oil/Palm Oil) - Continuous heavy rain in Indonesia's Sumatra has caused floods and landslides. The supply pressure of palm oil is expected to ease, and prices may rebound. It is recommended to consider short - term long positions [25]. 3.2.2 Agricultural Products (Sugar) - As of the end of November, about 30 sugar mills in Guangxi and Yunnan have started production. The sugar production in Guangxi in November is expected to be 100,000 tons, far lower than last year. The Zhengzhou sugar 1 - month contract is expected to oscillate, and the main funds will gradually shift to the 5 - month contract [26][31]. 3.2.3 Agricultural Products (Cotton) - In October, China's cotton product exports decreased year - on - year but increased month - on - month. The EU's clothing imports from China increased in Q3. The US cotton export signing and shipment increased in the week ending October 16. The Zhengzhou cotton is expected to be strongly volatile in the short term and cautiously optimistic in the long term [32][35]. 3.2.4 Black Metals (Rebar/Hot - Rolled Coil) - Malaysia plans to add 48.4 million tons of steel production capacity from 2030 - 2035. China's November automobile dealer inventory warning index was 55.6%, up year - on - year and month - on - month. Steel prices are expected to oscillate with a slight rebound, and it is recommended to take an oscillatory approach [36][38]. 3.2.5 Agricultural Products (Soybean Meal) - Oil mills maintained a high operating rate. Argentina's soybean planting was 39% complete as of November 27. The US sold 312,000 tons of soybeans to China. International markets should focus on China's soybean purchases and South American weather, and domestic soybean meal is expected to oscillate [39][41]. 3.2.6 Agricultural Products (Corn Starch) - The price difference between corn starch and tapioca starch has widened. Corn starch is expected to be strong in the short term, and it is recommended to operate in the price - difference range in the medium - short term and expect it to strengthen in the long term [42][43]. 3.2.7 Agricultural Products (Corn) - As of November 27, the average grain - selling progress in Northeast China was 26%, and in North China was 25%, both faster than last year. Corn futures contracts are expected to have different trends, and it is not recommended to short against the trend in the short term [43][44]. 3.2.8 Non - ferrous Metals (Copper) - CSPT agreed to reduce copper production capacity by over 10% in 2026. Chile's October copper production decreased by 7% year - on - year. Copper prices are expected to rise, and it is recommended to buy on dips [45][48]. 3.2.9 Non - ferrous Metals (Polysilicon) - Hainan's new - energy power price was cleared at the upper limit. Polysilicon prices are under pressure, and it is recommended that investors operate with caution due to high volatility [49][51]. 3.2.10 Non - ferrous Metals (Industrial Silicon) - The operating rates of silicon enterprises in Sichuan and Yunnan are declining. The market is expected to oscillate between 8800 - 9500 yuan/ton, and it is recommended to focus on range - bound operations [52][54]. 3.2.11 Non - ferrous Metals (Lead) - On November 27, LME lead had a large - scale backwardation. The old - standard electric bicycle CCC certificates will be cancelled from December 1. The lead market is short of supply and strong in demand, and it is recommended to buy on dips [55][56]. 3.2.12 Non - ferrous Metals (Zinc) - On November 27, LME zinc had a large - scale contango. Antamina's zinc ore tender price was below $30/dry ton. Zinc prices are likely to rise, and it is recommended to observe buying opportunities on the right side and hold long - spread positions [57][58]. 3.2.13 Non - ferrous Metals (Lithium Carbonate) - Frontier Lithium released its mid - term report. The lithium carbonate market may face short - term callback pressure, and it is recommended to short on highs in the short term and buy on lows in the medium term [59][62]. 3.2.14 Non - ferrous Metals (Nickel) - Indonesia simplified the RKAB approval process. The nickel market is in surplus, and nickel prices are expected to oscillate at the current level [63][64]. 3.2.15 Energy Chemicals (Carbon Emissions) - On November 28, the EUA main contract closed at €83.26/ton. EU carbon prices are supported by auction suspension and reduced supply in 2026 but may be suppressed by warm weather [65]. 3.2.16 Energy Chemicals (Crude Oil) - OPEC+ decided to suspend production increases in Q1 2026. US crude oil production reached a record high in September. Short - term oil prices will maintain a volatile trend, and it is recommended to pay attention to the Russia - Ukraine negotiation progress [67][70]. 3.2.17 Shipping Index (Container Freight Rates) - The UK plans to cancel the small - package tariff exemption in 2029. The SCFI index rose. The container freight market is expected to oscillate, and it is recommended to consider light - position long positions in the 02 contract [71][72].

银行间主要利率债收益率全线下行，截至下午16:30，10年期国债活跃券250016收益率下行1.25bp报 1.8315%，30年期国债活跃券2500006收益率下行0.95bp报2.187%，10年期国开活跃券250215收益率下行 1.55bp报1.902%。 | | 利率德二级 信用债二级 NCD二级 NCD二级 | | | 基准 ● 前收 ● 估值 用 … | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 1Y 100 2Y 2Y 2Y 2Y 3Y 3Y 3Y 3Y 3Y 100 7Y 100 100 100 100 100 | | 超长债 | | | | | | 1.4000 -0.75 1.4150 -1.25 1.4350 -1.50 1.5650 -1.00 1.7325 -0.75 1.8315 -1.25 2.1870 -0.95 | | | | | | | 国债 | 250019.08 250017.18 250023.18 250003.18 250003.18 250018.18 250016.18 2500006.18 | ...

Core Viewpoint - The expectation of a Federal Reserve interest rate cut in December has improved, leading to a rebound in cryptocurrency prices, particularly Bitcoin, which is linked to an overall improvement in risk sentiment rather than specific catalysts in the crypto market [1] Group 1: Market Sentiment - QCP Capital suggests that the rise in Bitcoin is associated with improved risk sentiment in the market [1] - The market anticipates an 85% probability of a rate cut in December, which is influencing investor behavior [1] Group 2: Bitcoin Price Analysis - Bitcoin is approaching a mid-term rebound target of $90,000, although it may face supply constraints related to ETFs [1] - The recent liquidation events have established a key support zone between $80,000 and $82,000 for Bitcoin [1] - The cryptocurrency market is expected to be driven by market risk appetite and macroeconomic catalysts [1]

Group 1: Key Points on the Ceasefire Agreement - The proposed "28-point" ceasefire agreement requires Ukraine to abandon territorial claims over Crimea, Luhansk, and Donetsk, crossing Ukraine's "strategic red line" [1] - The agreement has been modified to "19 points" due to Ukraine's constitutional constraints and the need for further negotiations [1] - Key provisions include the recognition of Crimea and other territories as Russian, and a phased lifting of sanctions against Russia [1] Group 2: Political and Economic Implications - The agreement's failure to address core disputes means the path to peace remains long and uncertain, with potential for increased geopolitical friction [2] - Trump may escalate economic and military sanctions to pressure negotiations, potentially impacting market risk appetite [2] - The U.S. and Europe are expected to contribute $1 trillion for Ukraine's reconstruction, with the U.S. receiving 50% of profits from investments [1] Group 3: Market Impact - Oil prices may have limited downward movement despite recent negotiation news, as substantial breakthroughs towards a ceasefire are lacking [3] - Future negotiations may lead to increased volatility in oil and gold prices due to geopolitical tensions [3] - The market's reaction to news regarding the Russia-Ukraine conflict may not meet expectations, posing additional risks [3]

Group 1: U.S. Economic Indicators - In September, the U.S. added 119,000 non-farm jobs, exceeding expectations, but the labor market remains structurally unbalanced, with the unemployment rate rising to 4.4% [1] - The release of November non-farm payroll data has been postponed from December 5 to December 16, leading to significant fluctuations in market expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut, with a current probability of approximately 69% for a cut in December [1] Group 2: Domestic Economic Indicators - In October, the growth rate of general fiscal expenditure in China fell to -19.1% from 2.3% in September, influenced by a high base effect from the previous year [1] - The growth rate of general public budget expenditure decreased to -9.3% from 3.1% in September, while government fund expenditure dropped to -32.8% from 0.4% in September [1] - Tax revenue showed slight recovery, but non-tax revenue continued to weaken [1] Group 3: Market Strategy - In the bond market, the funding environment remains tight due to tax period disturbances, with the stock market adjusting but limited reaction in the bond market, which continues to experience narrow fluctuations [1] - The central bank governor indicated that the yield on 10-year government bonds remains around 1.75%-1.85%, with cautious sentiment in the bond market near key levels [1] - The expectation of a U.S. rate cut and skepticism regarding AI narratives have not triggered a significant decline in the bond market, indicating that a trend in interest rates may require substantial central bank bond purchases or a slowdown in the economy to prompt monetary policy easing [1] Group 4: A-share Market Outlook - Following a significant adjustment in the A-share market, current indicators suggest that market sentiment is at a low level, indicating limited downward space [2] - Uncertainties regarding overseas liquidity, rate cut expectations, and important internal meetings in December may prevent an immediate recovery in market risk appetite [2] - Structural pressures between market styles have eased, suggesting a gradual entry into a mid-term layout phase [2] Group 5: Hong Kong Stock Market - The Hong Kong stock market is currently influenced by U.S. rate cut expectations, with a mid-term perspective indicating potential benefits from improved financial conditions and risk appetite [2] Group 6: Commodity Outlook - In the global economic context, initial rate cuts may not significantly boost oil demand, as supply continues to be released and inventories accumulate, keeping prices under pressure [2] - Gold prices have stabilized recently amid increased volatility in U.S. stocks driven by AI prospects, with a positive outlook for the medium to long term [2]

Group 1 - Gold prices continued to fluctuate below $4,050 amid improved market risk appetite, despite a retreat in the dollar [1][3] - Ongoing geopolitical tensions, including the Russia-Ukraine situation and new conflicts in the Middle East, support gold's safe-haven appeal, but a rebound in global stock markets has weakened risk aversion [3][4] - Upcoming U.S. economic data, including Q3 GDP and PCE price index, will significantly influence market expectations regarding Federal Reserve policy [3][4] Group 2 - Recent comments from New York Fed President John Williams suggest a tight policy with potential for future rate cuts, raising the probability of a December rate cut to about 67% [3] - Divergent views among Fed officials maintain a strong dollar, which pressures gold prices, while optimistic expectations for rate cuts enhance investor risk appetite [3][4] - Key technical levels for gold include support at $4,030 and resistance at $4,080, with potential price movements towards $4,000 or $4,100 depending on market stability [4]