Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints - The overall sentiment in the domestic commodity market remains positive, but the upward momentum is slowing, and there is uncertainty in overseas trade. The prices of various non - ferrous metals are expected to show different trends based on their respective supply - demand fundamentals and external factors [2][4]. Summary by Metals Copper - Last week, copper prices fluctuated weakly. LME copper fell 1.92% to $9,663/ton, and SHFE copper closed at 78,320 yuan/ton. Total inventories in three major exchanges increased by 22,000 tons. Trump announced a 50% tariff on copper starting August 1st, which may widen the price gap between US copper and LME/Shanghai copper, putting pressure on the latter. With the raw material shortage situation weakening and the current off - season, copper prices are expected to fluctuate weakly. The operating range for SHFE copper this week is 76,800 - 79,200 yuan/ton, and for LME copper 3M is $9,400 - 9,800/ton [2]. Aluminum - Aluminum prices first declined and then rose last week. SHFE aluminum rose 0.29%, and LME aluminum rose 0.17% to $2,602/ton. Domestic aluminum ingot inventories decreased, while bonded area inventories increased. Aluminum rod inventories increased, and processing fees were low. With the domestic commodity atmosphere positive but slowing, and the downstream in the off - season, aluminum ingots are expected to accumulate inventory, and aluminum prices may fluctuate weakly. The operating range for domestic main contracts is 20,200 - 20,800 yuan/ton, and for LME aluminum 3M is $2,530 - 2,650/ton [4]. Lead - Last Friday, SHFE lead index fell 0.85% to 17,092 yuan/ton, and LME lead 3S fell to $2,027.5/ton. The supply of lead ingots is relatively loose, and social and enterprise inventories are accumulating. With the approaching peak season, downstream demand is improving. Due to the high concentration of long - positions in the LME lead July contract, lead prices are showing a relatively strong trend, but the increase in SHFE lead may be limited due to weak domestic consumption [5]. Zinc - SHFE zinc index rose 0.03% to 22,355 yuan/ton last Friday, and LME zinc 3S rose to $2,777/ton. Domestic zinc ore supply is still abundant, and zinc ingot supply is expected to increase. In the long - term, zinc prices are bearish. In the short - term, due to the dovish atmosphere of the Fed and the positive sentiment in the market, zinc prices are expected to fluctuate. The current domestic social inventory is 90,300 tons [6]. Tin - Tin prices fell after high - level fluctuations last week. The resumption of tin mines in Myanmar is ongoing, but the actual output is yet to come. The shortage of raw materials for smelters persists, and downstream demand is weak. With the supply and demand in short - term balance and the increasing expectation of Myanmar's resumption, tin prices are expected to fluctuate weakly. The operating range for domestic tin prices is 250,000 - 280,000 yuan/ton, and for LME tin is $31,000 - 34,000/ton [7][8]. Nickel - Nickel prices fluctuated last week. The main contradiction lies in the ferro - nickel production line. Due to weak stainless steel demand, the profit of ferro - nickel production is compressed, and the price of nickel ore has weakened. In July, the surplus pressure of ferro - nickel has slightly eased, but the downstream demand for stainless steel is still weak. Nickel prices are expected to be affected by the price difference between nickel and ferro - nickel, and it is recommended to short at high prices. The operating range for SHFE nickel is 115,000 - 128,000 yuan/ton, and for LME nickel 3M is $14,500 - 16,000/ton [9]. Lithium Carbonate - The spot index of lithium carbonate was flat on Friday, up 1.22% for the week. The price of lithium concentrate imported from Australia increased. The supply - demand relationship of lithium carbonate has not changed significantly, with downstream in the off - season and supply at a high level. Without macro - level positive factors, the upward space of lithium prices is limited. The operating range for the main contract of Guangzhou Futures Exchange is 63,040 - 65,200 yuan/ton [11]. Alumina - On July 11, the alumina index fell 2.7% to 3,100 yuan/ton. Spot prices in some regions increased, and the import window was closed. With the expectation of stronger ore prices in the medium - term and the positive sentiment in the commodity market, the futures price may be strong in the short - term, but the over - capacity situation remains. It is recommended to short at high prices. The operating range for the domestic main contract AO2509 is 2,850 - 3,300 yuan/ton [13]. Stainless Steel - The stainless steel main contract closed at 12,710 yuan/ton on Friday, down 1.20%. Spot prices in some markets were flat. It is currently the off - season for stainless steel consumption, and the supply - demand imbalance is difficult to reverse in the short - term. The spot market is expected to remain weak [15]. Cast Aluminum Alloy - The futures price of cast aluminum alloy first declined and then rose last week. The AD2511 contract rose 0.23% to 19,930 yuan/ton. Spot prices increased, and the production profit of enterprises improved slightly. The overall supply and demand are weak in the off - season. Considering the slowdown of aluminum price increase and the large difference between futures and spot prices, the upward resistance of cast aluminum alloy prices is large [17][19].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - The recent BZ2603 rally results from the combined forces of industry anti - arbitrage and the compression of styrene production profit. The BZ futures premium has further expanded, with limited potential for increasing the pure benzene processing fee. Styrene port inventory is continuously accumulating, and its production profit faces further compression pressure. The decline in EPS and PS开工 further drags down EB demand [3] Summary by Directory I. Basis Structure and Inter - period Spread of Pure Benzene and EB - Relevant figures include the pure benzene main contract basis, pure benzene spot - M2 paper cargo spread, pure benzene consecutive one - contract to consecutive three - contract spread, EB main contract trend & basis, EB main contract basis, and styrene consecutive one - contract to consecutive three - contract spread [8][11][14][17] II. Production Profit and Internal - External Spread of Pure Benzene and Styrene - Relevant figures cover naphtha processing fee, pure benzene FOB Korea - naphtha CFR Japan spread, styrene non - integrated plant production profit, pure benzene FOB US Gulf - pure benzene FOB Korea spread, pure benzene FOB US Gulf - CFR China spread, pure benzene FOB Rotterdam - CFR China spread, pure benzene import profit, styrene import profit, styrene FOB US Gulf - CFR China spread, and styrene FOB Rotterdam - CFR China spread [19][22][27][30][32] III. Inventory and Operating Rate of Pure Benzene and Styrene - Relevant figures are pure benzene East China port inventory, pure benzene operating rate, styrene East China port inventory, styrene operating rate, styrene East China commercial inventory, and styrene factory inventory [37][39][42] IV. Operating Rate and Production Profit of Styrene Downstream - Relevant figures involve EPS operating rate, EPS production profit, PS operating rate, PS production profit, ABS operating rate, and ABS production profit [48][50][52] V. Operating Rate and Production Profit of Pure Benzene Downstream - Relevant figures include caprolactam operating rate, phenol - acetone operating rate, aniline operating rate, adipic acid operating rate, caprolactam production gross profit, phenol - acetone production gross profit, aniline production gross profit, adipic acid production gross profit, PA6 regular spun bright production gross profit, nylon filament production gross profit, bisphenol A production gross profit, PC production gross profit, epoxy resin E - 51 production gross profit, pure MDI production gross profit, and polymer MDI production gross profit [57][61][70][78][81][82] Market Data Pure Benzene - Main contract basis: - 268 yuan/ton (- 103) [1] - Port inventory: 17.40 tons (- 0.30 tons) [1] - CFR China processing fee: 140 dollars/ton (- 5 dollars/ton) [1] - FOB Korea processing fee: 126 dollars/ton (- 5 dollars/ton) [1] - US - Korea spread: 113.9 dollars/ton (- 7.0 dollars/ton) [1] - East China pure benzene spot - M2 spread: - 95 yuan/ton (- 15 yuan/ton) [1] Pure Benzene Downstream - Caprolactam production profit: - 1910 yuan/ton (- 105) [1] - Phenol - acetone production profit: - 564 yuan/ton (+ 0) [1] - Aniline production profit: - 171 yuan/ton (- 305) [1] - Adipic acid production profit: - 1487 yuan/ton (- 72) [1] - Caprolactam operating rate: 95.72% (+ 0.00%) [1] - Phenol operating rate: 78.00% (- 0.50%) [1] - Aniline operating rate: 70.90% (+ 1.66%) [1] - Adipic acid operating rate: 65.70% (+ 1.40%) [1] Styrene - Main contract basis: 205 yuan/ton (- 80 yuan/ton) [1] - Non - integrated production profit: 219 yuan/ton (+ 26 yuan/ton), expected to gradually compress [1] - East China port inventory: 111,500 tons (+ 12,700 tons) [1] - East China commercial inventory: 39,000 tons (+ 7,700 tons), in the inventory rebuilding stage [1] - Operating rate: 79.2% (- 0.8%) [1] Styrene Downstream (Hard Rubber) - EPS production profit: - 48 yuan/ton (- 89 yuan/ton) [2] - PS production profit: - 298 yuan/ton (- 39 yuan/ton) [2] - ABS production profit: 318 yuan/ton (- 74 yuan/ton) [2] - EPS operating rate: 51.06% (- 4.82%) [2] - PS operating rate: 51.10% (- 1.30%) [2] - ABS operating rate: 65.00% (- 0.04%), at a seasonal low [2] Strategies - Unilateral: Wait and see for pure benzene and styrene [4] - Basis and inter - period: For near - month BZ paper cargo - far - month BZ2603 futures, conduct anti - arbitrage at high prices [4] - Cross - variety: Narrow the EB - BZ spread at high prices [4]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - All the analyzed energy and chemical products are rated as "Oscillating" [1][2][3][4] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - **Crude Oil**: On Wednesday, oil prices oscillated. The EIA data showed an increase in US crude oil inventories last week, while gasoline and distillate inventories decreased. The market demand is strong as it digests OPEC+'s production increase without inventory accumulation. With OPEC+ increasing supply, the demand remains resilient, leading to an oscillating and slightly upward - trending oil price [1]. - **Fuel Oil**: The main contracts of high - and low - sulfur fuel oil rose on Wednesday. The domestic refinery operating rate decreased slightly. The supply of low - sulfur fuel oil in Singapore is expected to be tight, while the supply pressure will continue to suppress the Asian high - sulfur fuel oil market. In the short term, it will mainly oscillate following the cost - end crude oil [1][2]. - **Asphalt**: The main asphalt contract rose on Wednesday. The inventory level was stable week - on - week, and the operating rate increased. The impact of the adjustment of the consumption tax deduction policy has not yet appeared. The supply in July is stable with a slight increase. The demand in the south is slowly recovering, while the rainfall in the north hinders demand. It will oscillate following the cost - end crude oil [2]. - **Polyester**: The prices of polyester products such as TA, EG, and PX rose slightly on Wednesday. The sales of polyester yarn in Jiangsu and Zhejiang were weak. TA inventory may gradually accumulate, and there is a strong expectation of inventory accumulation for ethylene glycol in the third quarter, with its price under pressure [2]. - **Rubber**: The prices of rubber products such as RU, NR, and BR rose slightly on Wednesday. The rubber - producing areas are in full - scale tapping, raw material prices are loose, downstream tire operating rates declined, and inventory slightly increased. It is expected to oscillate weakly. Attention should be paid to rubber purchase and storage news and tariff negotiations between Vietnam and the US [3]. - **Methanol**: The production of Iranian devices is gradually recovering. Although the short - term arrival volume has not increased much, the long - term arrival volume will increase. The short - term supply shortage has eased, and the price has returned to an oscillating trend [3]. - **Polyolefins**: The upstream is still in the maintenance season, with little change in overall supply. As the off - season arrives, downstream operating rates have declined, and enterprises purchase on demand. The price is expected to fluctuate within a narrow range [4]. - **Polyvinyl Chloride (PVC)**: Recently, the profit of chlor - alkali has decreased, and enterprise operating rates have declined. Although demand has not improved significantly, the fundamentals have not deteriorated. Before the market provides obvious opportunities, short - selling is not recommended, and attention should be paid to the impact of macro - policies [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Views - **Crude Oil**: WTI August contract closed up $0.05 to $68.38 per barrel, a 0.07% increase; Brent September contract closed up $0.04 to $70.19 per barrel, a 0.06% increase; SC2508 closed at 520.1 yuan per barrel, up 4.4 yuan per barrel, a 0.85% increase. US crude oil inventories increased by 7.1 million barrels to 426 million barrels last week, far exceeding expectations [1]. - **Fuel Oil**: The main contract FU2509 of high - sulfur fuel oil on the Shanghai Futures Exchange rose 0.51% to 2982 yuan per ton; the main contract LU2509 of low - sulfur fuel oil rose 0.82% to 3692 yuan per ton. As of July 9, the operating rate of domestic refineries was 63.61%, down 0.46 percentage points from last week [1][2]. - **Asphalt**: The main contract BU2509 of asphalt on the Shanghai Futures Exchange rose 0.86% to 3623 yuan per ton. The total inventory level of domestic refineries was 27.91%, unchanged week - on - week; the social inventory rate was 35.81%, up 0.33% week - on - week; the operating rate of asphalt plants was 35.53%, up 2.72% week - on - week [2]. - **Polyester**: TA509 closed at 4718 yuan per ton, up 0.17%; EG2509 closed at 4283 yuan per ton, up 0.37%; PX futures main contract 509 closed at 6724 yuan per ton, up 0.42%. The sales of polyester yarn in Jiangsu and Zhejiang were about 40% [2]. - **Rubber**: The main contract RU2509 of natural rubber rose 60 yuan per ton to 14045 yuan per ton; NR main contract rose 25 yuan per ton to 12095 yuan per ton; BR main contract rose 5 yuan per ton to 11310 yuan per ton. As of July 6, the social inventory of natural rubber decreased by 0.02 million tons, a 0.02% decrease [3]. - **Methanol**: The spot price in Taicang was 2385 yuan per ton, the price in Inner Mongolia's northern line was 1962.5 yuan per ton, the CFR China price was 275 - 279 US dollars per ton, and the CFR Southeast Asia price was 339 - 344 US dollars per ton [3]. - **Polyolefins**: The mainstream price of East China拉丝 was 7050 - 7180 yuan per ton. The profit of oil - based PP was - 341.35 yuan per ton, and the profit of coal - based PP was 911.73 yuan per ton [4]. - **Polyvinyl Chloride (PVC)**: The price of PVC in East China was stable, with the mainstream price of calcium - carbide - based type 5 material at 4740 - 4840 yuan per ton, and the mainstream price of ethylene - based material at 4800 - 5150 yuan per ton [4]. 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - This part provides the basis price data of various energy and chemical products on July 10, 2025, including spot prices, futures prices, basis, basis rates, price changes, and the quantile of the latest basis rate in historical data [5]. 3.3 Market News - The Red Sea, a global important shipping route, was attacked again last week after months of calm. The attacker is suspected to be the Yemeni Houthi rebels supported by Iran, and a cargo ship sank, causing at least 4 crew members to die [7]. - The EIA data showed that US crude oil inventories increased last week, while gasoline and distillate inventories decreased [7]. 3.4 Chart Analysis - **Main Contract Prices**: It shows the closing price trends of the main contracts of various energy and chemical products from 2021 to 2025, including crude oil, fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, asphalt, LPG, PTA, ethylene glycol, etc. [9][11][13][15][17][19] - **Main Contract Basis**: It presents the basis trends of the main contracts of various energy and chemical products from 2021 to 2025, such as crude oil, fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, asphalt, etc. [22][23][24][25] - **Inter - period Contract Spreads**: It shows the spreads between different contracts of various energy and chemical products, including fuel oil, asphalt, PTA, ethylene glycol, PP, LLDPE, natural rubber, etc. [36][37][38][39][41][42][44][45][47][48][49][51][52] - **Inter - variety Spreads**: It includes the spreads between different varieties such as crude oil's internal and external markets, B - W spread of crude oil, high - and low - sulfur spread of fuel oil, etc. [53][54][55] - **Production Profits**: It shows the production profit trends of products such as ethylene - based ethylene glycol, PP, and LLDPE [58][59][60][61][62] 3.5 Research Team Introduction - **Zhong Meiyan**: Assistant Director of the Research Institute and Director of Energy and Chemicals, with over ten years of experience in futures and derivatives market research [64]. - **Du Bingqin**: Analyst for crude oil, natural gas, fuel oil, asphalt, and shipping, with in - depth research on the energy industry chain [65]. - **Di Yilin**: Analyst for natural rubber and polyester, good at data analysis and logical reasoning [66]. - **Peng Haibo**: Analyst for methanol, PE, PP, and PVC, with experience in combining financial theory and industrial operations [67].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral; Inter - period: None [3] Core Viewpoints - The market trading of macro - positive factors has ended, and the atmosphere of waiting and seeing prevails. Downstream factories have low purchasing sentiment, and most end - users make purchases based on rigid demand. Upstream petrochemical plants will enter the maintenance season, and the maintenance loss is on the rise, alleviating the market supply pressure and leading to a slight reduction in production inventory. The geopolitical situation in the Middle East is gradually easing, international oil prices and propane prices are falling, the production profit of PDH - made PP has turned from loss to profit, and the cost - side support has weakened. The downstream demand remains in the seasonal off - season, with the bottom - up recovery of the agricultural film industry's start - up rate and the decline of the plastic weaving industry's start - up rate [2] Summary by Directory 1. Polyolefin Basis Structure - L主力合约收盘价为7245元/吨（-2），PP主力合约收盘价为7045元/吨（-12），LL华北现货为7180元/吨（-30），LL华东现货为7270元/吨（-20），PP华东现货为7120元/吨（+0），LL华北基差为 - 65元/吨（-28），LL华东基差为25元/吨（-18），PP华东基差为75元/吨（+12） [1] 2. Production Profit and Start - up Rate - PE开工率为79.5%（+3.0%），PP开工率为77.4%（-1.9%）；PE油制生产利润为166.2元/吨（-108.4），PP油制生产利润为 - 243.8元/吨（-108.4），PDH制PP生产利润为300.1元/吨（+0.0） [1] 3. Polyolefin Non - standard Price Difference - No specific data provided in the given text 4. Polyolefin Import and Export Profits - LL进口利润为 - 109.6元/吨（-10.0），PP进口利润为 - 624.5元/吨（+86.2），PP出口利润为28.3美元/吨（+0.0） [1] 5. Polyolefin Downstream Start - up and Downstream Profits - PE下游农膜开工率为12.1%（-0.3%），PE下游包装膜开工率为48.4%（+0.5%），PP下游塑编开工率为42.2%（-1.0%），PP下游BOPP膜开工率为60.3%（-0.1%） [1] 6. Polyolefin Inventory - Upstream petrochemical plants will enter the maintenance season, and production inventory has a slight reduction [2]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2) Core Viewpoints - The overall PG market is in a weak and volatile state, with small changes in the basis (349), a slight strengthening of the 8 - 9 month spread (97), and the cheapest deliverable being East China civil gas at 4529. The import cost has dropped significantly, the FEI offshore premium has declined, and the CP propane - butane arrival premium has strengthened. The overseas market month spread has weakened significantly, and the oil - gas ratio has increased. The domestic - foreign price difference has strengthened, with PG - CP reaching 22.5 (+26.5) and FEI - CP reaching - 22.75 (+35), and the US - Asia arbitrage window is closed [1]. - Fundamentally, domestic port inventories, factory inventories, and external sales volumes are basically flat. PDH operating rates have dropped to 65.49% (-5.05pct) with improved profits, and it is expected that PDH operating rates will increase slightly in the future. The alkylation operating rate remains flat, and it is expected that the planned restart of some units will drive up the subsequent operating rate [1]. - Shandong civil gas first declined and then rose (4610). With low domestic gas supply, sufficient arrivals, weak combustion demand, and support from chemical demand, it is expected to generally fluctuate. East China civil gas declined (4529), with an average overall trading atmosphere. Terminals and refineries reduced prices to sell goods. It is expected that the East China market will remain weak due to increased arrivals and the off - season of demand. South China civil gas fluctuated downward (4660) mainly due to the decline in import costs and weak combustion demand. It is expected that the subsequent low terminal demand will continue to drag down the market [1]. - Currently, prices have dropped to a relatively low level. Although chemical demand is high, high temperatures and weak terminal demand will suppress subsequent price increases [1]. 3) Summary by Relevant Content Market Data - **Price Changes**: From July 2 - 8, 2025, South China LPG decreased from 4690 to 4630, East China LPG decreased from 4582 to 4494, and Shandong LPG remained at 4590 on July 8. Propane CFR South China had some fluctuations, and propane CIF Japan increased from 517 to 551. MB propane spot increased from 73 to 75, and CP forecast contract price increased from 556 to 561. The paper import profit showed a downward trend, and the main contract basis decreased by 16 on July 8 compared to the previous day [1]. - **Spread Changes**: The 08 - 09 spread of PG was 96 at one point and then the 8 - 9 spread strengthened slightly to 97. PG - CP reached 22.5 (+26.5), FEI - CP reached - 22.75 (+35), and the US - Asia arbitrage window was closed [1]. Industry Operation - **PDH**: The PDH operating rate dropped to 65.49% (-5.05pct), and profits improved. It is expected that the PDH operating rate will increase slightly in the future [1]. - **Alkylation**: The alkylation operating rate remained flat, and it is expected that the planned restart of some units will drive up the subsequent operating rate [1]. Regional Market Analysis - **Shandong**: Shandong civil gas first declined and then rose to 4610. With low domestic gas supply, sufficient arrivals, weak combustion demand, and support from chemical demand, it is expected to generally fluctuate [1]. - **East China**: East China civil gas declined to 4529. The overall trading atmosphere was average, and terminals and refineries reduced prices to sell goods. It is expected that the East China market will remain weak due to increased arrivals and the off - season of demand [1]. - **South China**: South China civil gas fluctuated downward to 4660 mainly due to the decline in import costs and weak combustion demand. It is expected that the subsequent low terminal demand will continue to drag down the market [1].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, Saudi Aramco's July CP was released, showing an unexpected decline. Propane was at $575/ton (-$25), and butane was at $545/ton (-$25), leading to a significant reduction in import costs. Domestic LPG production decreased slightly, and international vessel arrivals dropped. Civilian demand remained seasonally weak, while the chemical industry's demand showed mixed trends. Next week, civilian demand is expected to stay weak, and the chemical industry's overall start - up rate may be boosted in the short term. It is recommended to closely monitor OPEC+ production increases, downstream device operations, and import vessel arrivals [4]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Overview - Saudi Aramco's July CP prices for propane and butane decreased by $25/ton. Domestic LPG production totaled 538,000 tons, a slight reduction of 0.06%. Civilian gas production was 229,600 tons (-0.39%), and ether - after production was 163,300 tons (-0.55%). International vessel arrivals were 499,000 tons (-18.82%), and arrivals are expected to increase next week. Civilian combustion demand was seasonally weak. PDH operating rate was 65.49% (-5.05%), and MTBE operating rate was 65.05% (+0.66%). Civilian gas prices declined slightly, while ether - after C4 prices rose significantly. Next week, civilian demand will remain weak, and the chemical industry's start - up rate may be boosted [4]. 3.2 Price & Spread - The report presents data on LPG futures and spot prices, including LPG main contracts, APS propane main contracts, and AFE propane main contracts. It also shows the LPG forward curve, APS propane forward curve, and AFE propane forward curve. Additionally, it provides information on price differences such as PG08 - 09, PG08 - 05, APS propane main - continuous one, etc. Regional quotes, premiums, discounts, and freight rates are also covered, including historical data on US - to - Far - East freight, Middle - East - to - Far - East freight, etc. [7][11][12] 3.3 Supply - **US Exports**: The report shows historical data on US propane exports from 2019 - 2025, including exports to Europe, China, and Japan and South Korea [29][30][31]. - **Middle - East Exports**: It presents historical data on Middle - East LPG exports from 2019 - 2025, including exports from Iran, Kuwait, UAE, Saudi Arabia, and Qatar [35][36][37]. - **Domestic Supply**: Domestic LPG production totaled 538,000 tons (-0.06%). Propane supply in China was 545,400 tons, a 17.07% decrease. Domestic refinery production was 46,400 tons, a 7.91% increase. International vessel arrivals were 499,000 tons, mainly in Shandong. Inventory data for East China, South China, and Shandong are also provided [44][47][48]. 3.4 Demand - Chemical demand: PDH operating rate was 65.49% (-5.05%), and MTBE operating rate was 65.06% (+0.66%). The report also shows historical data on alkylation profit, domestic PDH operating rate, MTBE traditional profit, etc. [50][51]

Production Insights - As of the fourth week of June, the national blast furnace operating rate was 83.84%, stable compared to the previous period and above last year's average[11] - The rebar operating rate increased to 43.62%, up by 3.10 percentage points from the previous period, also above last year's average[11] - Cement mill operating rate decreased to 38.14%, down by 4.91 percentage points, slightly below last year's average[11] Inventory Trends - As of the fourth week of June, rebar inventory was 185.65 million tons, up by 1.85 percentage points from the previous period, but below last year's average[28] - Port iron ore inventory decreased to 139.27 million tons, down by 0.05 percentage points, also below last year's average[28] - Cement capacity utilization ratio was 62.76%, down by 0.68 percentage points, remaining stable compared to last year's average[28] Demand Dynamics - In June, the sales area of commercial housing in 30 cities increased by 45.73 percentage points, exceeding last year's average[55] - The average daily sales of passenger cars reached 95,374 units, reflecting an increase of 18.44% month-on-month and 3.00% year-on-year[82] - The total box office revenue for movies was 53.9 million yuan, up by 22.78% month-on-month, but still lower than last year's level[82] Trade and Pricing - The Shanghai Container Freight Index (SCFI) fell to 1861.51, down by 0.43% from the previous period, while the China Container Freight Index (CCFI) rose to 1369.34, up by 2.00%[89] - The average price of cement was 355.26 yuan per ton, down by 2.05% from the previous period, below last year's average[66] - The price of rebar was 3,070.50 yuan per ton, showing a slight increase of 0.10% from the previous period, but still below last year's average[67]

聚烯烃日报 | 2025-07-02 需求淡季，下游刚需采购 市场分析 价格与基差方面，L主力合约收盘价为7249元/吨（-12），PP主力合约收盘价为7044元/吨（-26），LL华北现货为7190 元/吨（-50），LL华东现货为7300元/吨（-50），PP华东现货为7120元/吨（-40），LL华北基差为-59元/吨（-38），LL 华东基差为51元/吨（-38）， PP华东基差为76元/吨（-14）。 上游供应方面，PE开工率为76.4%（-2.3%），PP开工率为79.3%（-0.3%）。 生产利润方面，PE油制生产利润为378.7元/吨（+19.9），PP油制生产利润为-51.3元/吨（+19.9），PDH制PP生产利 润为274.9元/吨（+6.4）。 进出口方面，LL进口利润为-48.2元/吨（+10.1），PP进口利润为-496.8元/吨（-182.2），PP出口利润为23.2美元/吨 （+1.2）。 下游需求方面，PE下游农膜开工率为12.4%（+0.2%），PE下游包装膜开工率为48.0%（-1.2%），PP下游塑编开工率 为43.2%（-0.4%），PP下游BOPP膜开工率为60.4 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - SH2509 rose 0.77% to close at 2358 yuan/ton. On the supply side, last week, Jincheng Chemical, Dongying Huatai, and Ordos plants were shut down for maintenance, while Huojiagou, Haohua Yuhang, and Shandong Aluminum plants restarted, with the caustic soda capacity utilization rate increasing by 1.3% to 82.5%. On the demand side, last week, the alumina operating rate decreased by 0.07% to 80.67%; the viscose staple fiber operating rate decreased by 2.23% to 78.57%, and the printing and dyeing operating rate decreased by 0.42% to 60.31%. In terms of inventory, last week, the liquid caustic soda factory inventory increased by 6.51% to 390,400 tons, which is at a moderately high level in the same period. This week, three plants in the Northwest and East China are planned to shut down, and three plants in North China are planned to restart, with the capacity utilization rate expected to rise slightly. There are many caustic soda production plants from June to July, increasing the industry supply pressure in the medium and long term. The alumina price and profit have declined slightly, the growth of the operating rate has stagnated, and the delivery volume of the main suppliers in Shandong has decreased; the non-aluminum off-season has weak rigid demand and resistance to high prices. With the increase in future supply, under the background of limited demand, there is still significant pressure on the caustic soda spot market. In the futures market, since the basis has converged, there is still a lack of positive fundamentals, and the sustainability of the rebound of the 09 contract is questionable. However, since it is close to the cost below 2200, the downward space of the futures price is also limited. In the short term, SH2509 is expected to fluctuate within a range, and the daily K-line should pay attention to the support around 2240 and the pressure around 2400 [3] Summary by Directory Futures Market - The main closing price of caustic soda was 2358 yuan/ton, up 39 yuan; the futures trading volume was 695,140 lots, up 80,795 lots; the contract closing price of caustic soda for January was 2354 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan; the contract closing price of caustic soda for May was 2410 yuan/ton, up 27 yuan; the net position of the top 20 futures traders was -10,586 lots, up 14,324 lots; the futures open interest was 278,829 lots, up 9592 lots [3] 现货市场 - The price of 32% ion-exchange membrane caustic soda in Shandong was 770 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan; the price in Jiangsu was 900 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan; the converted 100% caustic soda price in Shandong was 2406.25 yuan/ton, down 31.25 yuan; the basis of caustic soda was 48 yuan/ton, down 71 yuan [3] Upstream Situation - The mainstream price of raw salt in Shandong was 210 yuan/ton, unchanged; the mainstream price in the Northwest was 220 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of steam coal was 635 yuan/ton, unchanged [3] Industry Situation - The mainstream price of liquid chlorine in Shandong was 0 yuan/ton, down 50.5 yuan; the mainstream price in Jiangsu was -225 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan [3] Downstream Situation - The spot price of viscose staple fiber was 13,020 yuan/ton, unchanged; the spot price of alumina was 3080 yuan/ton, unchanged [3] Industry News - From June 20th to 26th, the average capacity utilization rate of Chinese caustic soda sample enterprises with a capacity of 200,000 tons or more was 82.5%, a month-on-month increase of 1.3%. As of June 26th, the factory inventory of fixed liquid caustic soda sample enterprises with a capacity of 200,000 tons or more nationwide was 390,400 tons (wet tons), a month-on-month increase of 6.51% and a year-on-year increase of 10.40% [3]

能源化工日报 2025-07-01 原油 能源化工组 2025/7/1 原油早评 行情方面：WTI 主力原油期货收跌 0.10 美元，跌幅 0.15%，报 64.97 美元；布伦特主力原油期 货收涨 0.32 美元，涨幅 0.48%，报 67.63 美元；INE 主力原油期货收跌 2.40 元，跌幅 0.48%， 报 498.3 元。 数据方面：中国原油周度数据出炉，原油到港库存去库 0.65 百万桶至 208.07 百万桶，环比 去库 0.31%；汽油商业库存累库 0.68 百万桶至 85.97 百万桶，环比累库 0.79%；柴油商业库 存累库 0.10 百万桶至 98.68 百万桶，环比累库 0.10%；总成品油商业库存累库 0.78 百万桶 至 184.65 百万桶，环比累库 0.42%。 刘洁文 甲醇、尿素分析师 从业资格号：F03097315 交易咨询号：Z0020397 0755-23375134 liujw@wkqh.cn 我们认为当前地缘风险已经逐步释放，油价已经极度偏离宏观与基本面指引。伊朗已展现出缓 解状态，但油价单日跌幅过大，我们认为当前油价已经来到合理区间，空单仍可持有但已不宜 追空。 ...