1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In Q4 2025, the price of soybean meal is expected to stop falling, stabilize, and rebound due to weather speculation in Brazil. However, considering the weak La Nina in winter, the January contract of soybean meal is unlikely to show a bullish trend. There is also a risk of decline if there is a Sino - US trade agreement. Short - term phased trading is recommended, and long - position operations require careful position and risk management [5][7][109]. - Rapeseed meal has been mainly following the trend of soybean meal due to high inventory pressure. There may be opportunities to go long on far - month rapeseed meal contracts considering the low inventory of rapeseed and rapeseed meal in domestic coastal crushing plants and the stagnant China - Canada trade. Attention should be paid to the subsequent development of China - Canada trade, as an improvement in the relationship would be unfavorable for far - month contracts of rapeseed products [9][112]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Chapter 1: Review of the Third - Quarter Market of Soybean Meal and Rapeseed Meal - **Soybean Meal**: In Q3, the price of domestic soybean meal first rose and then fell. It reached a new high for the year in mid - August due to factors such as the Sino - US trade tariff increase, weather premium during the US soybean planting period, the anti - dumping preliminary ruling on Canadian rapeseed by China, and the significant reduction in the US soybean planting area in the USDA report. Subsequently, the price declined due to good weather for US soybean planting, high port inventory of rapeseed meal in China, and other factors [15]. - **Rapeseed Meal**: In Q3, the price of rapeseed meal first increased and then decreased. It reached a new high for the year in mid - August after China announced a deposit system for Canadian rapeseed. Subsequently, high port inventory of imported granular rapeseed meal, concerns about the improvement of China - Canada trade tariffs, and the resumption of China - Australia rapeseed trade suppressed the price [16]. 3.2 Chapter 2: Supply and Demand Situation of the International Soybean Market - **Global Climate**: There is a 71% probability of La Nina occurring from October to December 2025, which may continue until February 2026, with a probability dropping to 54% [21]. - **Global Soybean Inventory - to - Consumption Ratio**: The global soybean inventory - to - consumption ratio is expected to decline. As of the September USDA report, it was 0.29, lower than last year's 0.3 but still above the median of the past decade. There are uncertainties in the future inventory - to - consumption ratio, especially if the Sino - US negotiation remains unresolved, the inventory - to - consumption ratio of Brazilian soybeans may improve significantly [24]. - **US Soybeans**: The planting area of US soybeans decreased, but the yield is expected to be high. The USDA adjusted the planting area and yield estimates, and as of September 28, 2025, the soybean harvest rate was 19%, the excellent - good rate was 62%, and the defoliation rate was 79% [28]. - **US Biodiesel**: In August, the EPA's handling of the backlog of small refinery exemption applications was positive for market confidence. However, in September, differences over the exemption issue led to a delay in the plan, increasing market uncertainty [29][30]. - **Brazilian Soybeans**: The 2025/26 production is expected to increase slightly year - on - year. The planting started in mid - September, but there is a risk of insufficient rainfall in the southern region. As of September 27, the sowing rate was 3.5%. The export volume in September was expected to be 675 tons, and the export volume of soybean meal was expected to be 637 tons [33][34][35]. - **Argentine Soybeans**: The 2025/26 production is expected to decrease slightly. The planting area is expected to decline by 4.3% to 17.6 million hectares, and the production is expected to be 47 million tons. The government temporarily removed export taxes on soybeans and related products from September 22 to October 31 or until the export volume reached $7 billion [40][43]. - **Global Rapeseed**: The global rapeseed production has recovered, with an output of 90.96 million tons in 2025, higher than last year's 85.73 million tons. Canada's rapeseed production is also expected to increase, reaching 20 million tons [47]. - **China's Anti - Dumping Investigation on Canadian Rapeseed**: China's Ministry of Commerce imposed a 75.8% deposit on Canadian rapeseed imports starting from August 14, 2025, and extended the investigation period to March 9, 2026, due to the complexity of the case [49][50]. 3.3 Chapter 3: Supply Situation of the Domestic Oilseed Market - **Soybean Imports**: In August 2025, China imported 12.279 million tons of soybeans, a year - on - year increase of 1.11%. From January to August, the cumulative import volume was 73.312 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 4%. The main sources of imports were Brazil, Argentina, Uruguay, and the US [56]. - **Soybean and Soybean Meal Inventory and Crushing**: As of September 26, 2025, the national port soybean inventory was 9.385 million tons, and the inventory of 125 oil mills was 7.1991 million tons. The soybean meal inventory of 125 oil mills was 1.1892 million tons. In September, the national soybean crushing volume was 9.9354 million tons [58][60][62]. - **Soybean and Soybean Meal Supply from October to December**: From October to December, the soybean import supply is expected to be sufficient, and the supply of soybean meal in Q4 is also expected to be good [64]. - **Soybean Meal Basis and Spread**: In Q3, the soybean meal basis rebounded from a low level but remained in a negative state. As of October 9, the basis for the January and May contracts was - 39 yuan/ton and 145 yuan/ton respectively. The 5 - 1 spread of soybean meal was 184 yuan/ton as of October 9 [68][71]. - **Rapeseed Market Supply**: In August 2025, the rapeseed import volume was 246,600 tons, and the cumulative import volume from January to August was 2.3306 million tons. As of October 3, the coastal oil mill rapeseed inventory was 6,000 tons, and the rapeseed meal inventory was 26,800 tons. The basis of rapeseed meal in East China was 25 yuan/ton as of October 9 [74][78][86]. - **Soybean Meal and Rapeseed Meal Price Difference**: In Q3, the price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal futures was relatively stable, while the spot price difference rebounded. As of October 9, the futures price difference was 504 yuan/ton, and the spot price difference was 440 yuan/ton [89]. 3.4 Chapter 4: Domestic Downstream Livestock and Poultry Market - **National Feed Production**: In August 2025, the national industrial feed production was 29.36 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.8%. From January to August, the cumulative production was 216.18 million tons, higher than the same period last year [90][92]. - **Pig Market**: As of the end of June 2025, the national pig inventory was 424.47 million heads. In August, the inventory of breeding sows was 40.38 million heads. The piglet sales volume in August was 547,100 heads. The pig farming profit declined in Q3 [95][97][99]. - **Egg and Broiler Chicken Farming**: The egg - laying hen farming profit decreased significantly after the festival, with a profit of - 4.94 yuan/feather as of October 9. The broiler chicken farming profit fluctuated greatly in Q3, with a profit of - 1.55 yuan/feather as of October 10. The inventory of laying hens and broiler chickens was at a relatively high level, indicating optimistic feed demand [102][103][105]. - **Meat Duck Inventory**: As of October 3, the national meat duck parent - stock inventory was 249,000 sets, and the daily average hatching volume of commercial - generation meat ducks was 9.3 million feathers [108]. 3.5 Chapter 5: Price Outlook for the Double - Meal Market - **Soybean Meal Market**: Supply is affected by the harvest of US soybeans, Sino - US trade relations, and weather in Brazil. Domestic supply is sufficient, and the January contract is under pressure. Consumption is expected to be acceptable in Q4 but weaker than in the first half of the year. Overall, the price may stop falling and rebound, but there are risks [5][109]. - **Rapeseed Meal Market**: International supply is affected by the harvest of Canadian rapeseed and the opening of Australian rapeseed imports. Domestic supply is affected by inventory and China - Canada trade. Downstream consumption is in the off - season in Q4. It mainly follows the trend of soybean meal, and attention should be paid to China - Canada trade relations [9][112].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The global soybean supply - demand pattern shows no obvious positive signs. The international soybean price is under pressure, and the domestic soybean import cost is expected to fluctuate weakly. The domestic double - meal market has a large real - time supply pressure, with soybean inventory at a record high and no clear positive factors on the cost side. In the medium term, the expectation of a loose global soybean supply remains unchanged, setting the general direction of shorting on rebounds. However, due to the relatively low valuation of US soybeans and uncertainties in South American planting and weather, the short - term trend of soybean meal is mainly weak and fluctuating [10][11][12]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Monthly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - **International Soybeans**: In September, US soybeans fluctuated weakly. Argentina's price - cut sales to raise foreign exchange in the middle of the month pressured international soybean and soybean meal prices. The Brazilian premium quotation decreased slightly, and the US soybean listing season slightly suppressed the Brazilian premium. The valuation of US soybeans is currently slightly low, and the Brazilian premium has some downward space. The domestic soybean import cost is expected to fluctuate weakly. Whether China will import US soybeans is undetermined. If China continues not to import US soybeans, the Brazilian quotation will remain strong, providing some support for soybean meal. If partial or full import of US soybeans is allowed, the soybean meal market may first react to the short - term supply pressure with a falling price, and then the import cost will stabilize after the game between US soybeans and the Brazilian premium ends, and the market will then trade based on the cost [10]. - **Domestic Double - Meal**: In September, the domestic soybean meal spot price fell, the basis rose, and the futures market converged towards the spot price. The oil mill's crushing profit declined. Domestic trading volume decreased, and the pick - up volume was relatively high but decreased at the end of the month. The inventory days of feed enterprises were 9.6 days, slightly higher than the same period last year. As of September 30, the ship - booking volume in August was 9.2 million tons, 8.76 million tons in September, 8.26 million tons in October, and 4.34 million tons in November. The current ship - booking progress indicates that the domestic soybean inventory may decline around the end of September. Coupled with the large - scale pick - up of domestic soybean meal, the domestic soybean - related basis has some support [10]. - **Trading Strategy**: The unilateral strategy is that the short - term trend of soybean meal is mainly weak and fluctuating. The medium - term general direction is to short on rebounds due to the large domestic supply pressure and the unchanged expectation of a loose global soybean supply. The report did not provide specific suggestions for the arbitrage strategy [10][11][12]. 3.2 Supply - side - **US Soybean Planting Progress**: The report presents the planting progress, emergence rate, flowering rate, and excellent - good rate of US soybeans through multiple charts, which can be used to assess the growth situation of US soybeans [32][33]. - **Weather Conditions**: There is a possibility of La Nina occurring from October 2025 to January. The report shows the weighted precipitation in US and Brazilian soybean - producing areas and the impact of La Nina on precipitation in North America and South America, which may affect soybean production [35][37][39]. - **US Soybean Export Progress**: The report shows the export contract volume, sales completion rate, and export shipment volume of US soybeans to China through multiple charts, which helps to understand the demand for US soybeans in the international market [50][51]. - **China's Oilseed Import and Oil Mill Crushing**: The report shows the monthly import volume of soybeans and rapeseeds in China through charts, as well as the soybean and rapeseed crushing volume of major oil mills, which reflects the supply situation of domestic oilseeds [53][54][55]. 3.3 Period - Spot Market - **Spot Price**: The report shows the spot prices of soybean meal in Guangdong Dongguan and rapeseed meal in Guangdong Huangpu through charts, which helps to understand the current price level of the spot market [18][19]. - **Basis of Main Contracts**: The report shows the basis of soybean meal 01 contract and rapeseed meal 01 contract through charts, which is important for analyzing the relationship between the futures and spot markets [21][22]. - **Price Difference**: The report shows the price differences between different contracts of soybean meal and between soybean meal 01 and rapeseed meal 01 through charts, which provides reference for arbitrage trading [23][24]. - **Fund Position**: The report shows the net long positions of management funds in US soybeans and US soybean meal through charts, which reflects the market sentiment of institutional investors [26][29][30]. 3.4 Profit and Inventory - **Oilseed Inventory**: The report shows the port inventory of soybeans and the inventory of rapeseed in major oil mills through charts, which reflects the inventory situation of domestic oilseeds [59][60]. - **Protein Meal Inventory**: The report shows the inventory of soybean meal and rapeseed meal in coastal major oil mills through charts, which reflects the inventory situation of domestic protein meals [62][63]. - **Protein Meal Crushing Profit**: The report shows the crushing profit of imported soybeans in Guangdong and the crushing profit of imported rapeseed in coastal areas through charts, which reflects the profitability of the protein meal processing industry [64][65]. 3.5 Demand - side - **Protein Meal Demand**: The report shows the cumulative transaction volume of soybean meal in major oil mills and the apparent consumption of soybean meal through charts, which reflects the demand situation of the domestic protein meal market [66][67]. - **Breeding Profit**: The report shows the average profit per head of self - breeding and self - raising pigs and the breeding profit of white - feather broilers through charts, which reflects the profitability of the breeding industry and may affect the demand for protein meals [68][69].

Core Insights - The LNG market is currently focused on winter temperature forecasts, demand, and potential supply risks, particularly due to geopolitical tensions and climate conditions [1][23] - The probability of a La Niña event in the winter of 2025-26 is increasing, which could lead to extreme temperature variations and heightened demand for LNG [1][13] - Historical data indicates that LNG prices may rise above 5000 yuan/ton during the winter peak due to low prices and seasonal inventory replenishment [1][23] LNG Demand and Consumption Trends - China's natural gas consumption has shown a historical growth pattern, with a significant increase from 2003 to 2013, but recent trends indicate a slowdown in growth [4][5] - In the first seven months of 2025, China's natural gas consumption was 246.1 billion cubic meters, with a year-on-year growth of only 0.3%, reflecting a decline of 9.4 percentage points compared to the previous year [4][6] - The demand composition includes urban gas (36%), industrial fuel (34%), power generation (22%), and chemicals (8%), with urban gas consumption being sensitive to weather and urbanization [5][6] Economic and Policy Factors - Economic conditions, including ongoing monetary easing and fiscal spending, are influencing natural gas demand, with industrial and chemical sectors facing downward pressure [6][8] - The Chinese government is promoting renewable energy, which may impact natural gas's share in the energy mix, as gas-fired power generation currently accounts for only about 4.5% of total installed capacity [10][11] - Policies aimed at reducing coal usage and promoting cleaner energy sources are expected to support natural gas demand in the long term, with projected growth rates of 4%-8% by 2035 [11][12] Supply Risks and Geopolitical Factors - The ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict continues to pose significant supply risks, with no signs of Russian gas supplies to Europe resuming through Ukraine [18][20] - The U.S. is maintaining high levels of natural gas production and exports, with a notable increase in LNG exports to Europe, which is crucial for balancing supply amid geopolitical tensions [19][22] - The Freeport LNG export facility in the U.S. is a key player in the market, with stable operations and low shipping costs, contributing to European LNG supply [21][22] Weather and Seasonal Factors - The upcoming winter season is expected to see increased demand due to potential cold weather, with the La Niña probability at approximately 60% [13][16] - Historical patterns indicate that extreme weather events can significantly impact natural gas prices, as seen in previous winters [5][23] - The combination of economic weakness, fluctuating industrial prices, and unpredictable winter temperatures will likely lead to low-level fluctuations in natural gas demand [16][23]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Supply side: Domestic rubber production areas have been affected by rainfall and tropical cyclones, especially Hainan. Overseas rainfall is relatively normal, and production will increase in the fourth - quarter peak season. There is a high probability of a La Nina event in 2025, and the zero - tariff scope for imported rubber continues to expand. Rubber supply in China is expected to recover in the fourth quarter without extreme weather [100]. - Demand side: The demand for all - steel tires is better than that of semi - steel tires. Overseas trade barriers for domestic tires are rising, increasing export pressure. The "Automobile Industry Steady Growth Work Plan (2025 - 2026)" was introduced, but the automobile sales in the fourth quarter still face challenges [100]. - Price: Due to uncertain weather, tariff barriers, and the test of domestic demand, rubber prices are expected to fluctuate widely in the fourth quarter, with support at around 14,500 yuan/ton and a mid - term fluctuation range of 14,500 - 17,000 yuan/ton [100]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Price: Narrow - range Fluctuation in the Futures Market No detailed content provided in this regard. 3.2 Supply: Double La Nina Events, Increased Weather Uncertainty - **Domestic Weather Impact**: This year, there have been more tropical cyclones affecting Hainan, and the precipitation in domestic production areas has been affected. It is predicted that there will be 10 - 12 typhoons in the northwest Pacific and South China Sea in the autumn of 2025, with 3 - 4 landing in China [10][13]. - **Global Output**: In July 2025, the global natural rubber output was expected to decrease slightly by 0.1% to 1.328 million tons, but increased by 7.9% compared with the previous month. The full - year output in 2025 is expected to increase by 0.5% to 14.892 million tons [19][24]. - **La Nina Probability**: The probability of a La Nina event from October to December 2025 is 71%. A double La Nina event may occur in 2025, which may make Southeast Asia wetter and southern China drier in winter [30]. - **Tariff Policy**: Since December 1, 2024, zero - tariff policies have been implemented for rubber from Myanmar, Laos, Cambodia, etc. Thailand plans to export rubber through the Mekong River channel with zero - tariff. African rubber imports to China are expected to increase in the fourth quarter [33][36]. - **Overseas Exports**: The total exports of major overseas producers increased year - on - year. For example, Thailand's exports in the first 8 months increased by 6.3% year - on - year, and Indonesia's increased by 10% year - on - year [37]. - **EUDR Delay**: The implementation of the EU Forest Law Enforcement, Governance and Trade (EUDR) has been postponed for one year due to IT and supply - chain issues [38]. - **Other Supply Factors**: The demand for natural rubber in Europe, America, Japan, and South Korea is limited. China's imports of natural and mixed rubber increased both year - on - year and month - on - month. The net import of butadiene rubber turned into net export [39][41][51]. 3.3 Demand: Supported by Steady Growth - **Automobile Industry Policy**: The "Automobile Industry Steady Growth Work Plan (2025 - 2026)" aims to achieve about 32.3 million automobile sales in 2025, with new - energy vehicle sales of about 15.5 million, and an increase of about 3% year - on - year [57]. - **Tire Market**: The growth momentum of semi - steel tire demand is restricted. Overseas anti - dumping investigations and tariff policies have affected tire exports. However, the production and sales of automobiles and heavy - duty trucks in China from January to August increased year - on - year [58][60][61]. 3.4 Inventory: Inflection Point in Natural Rubber Inventory Accumulation - **Natural Rubber Inventory**: As of September 24, 2025, the natural rubber warehouse receipts were 155,830 tons, and the 20 - rubber warehouse receipts were 44,856 tons. The social inventory of natural rubber in China was 123,500 tons as of September 14, 2025 [70][74]. - **Butadiene Rubber Inventory**: As of September 24, 2025, the inventory of domestic butadiene rubber sample enterprises was 32,300 tons [78]. 3.5 Position: Low Position As of September 24, 2025, the total position of natural rubber was 183,283 lots, a decrease of 26,214 lots compared with June 30; the total position of 20 - rubber was 119,808 lots, a decrease of 627 lots; the total position of BR was 102,425 lots, an increase of 47,106 lots [82].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The report uses satellite remote sensing, meteorological data, and historical yield models to estimate the yields of key global agricultural products in August 2025 and monitor their growth. The estimated yields of key monitored crops have increased to varying degrees. - La Niña is expected to appear in September, with a weak intensity and lasting until January 2026, with a probability of 50%-60%. The Indian Ocean Dipole has turned negative, which together promotes more precipitation in Southeast Asia, making it difficult to form a long-term drought. - The weather in South America is less affected by La Niña. Periodic droughts may affect southern Brazil and northern Argentina, but the rhythm is earlier than in 2024, and the overall intensity is similar [2]. Summary According to the Table of Contents Global Key Agricultural Product Yield Estimation - **Varieties, Time Window, and Method**: The monitoring cycle covers the growth period of crops in the Northern Hemisphere in August 2025. The monitored varieties include US soybeans, corn, cotton, Canadian rapeseed, Australian rapeseed, and Southeast Asian palm oil. The time - cycle spans 20 years from 2005 to 2025, using current and historical data. The monitoring uses 24 key indicators from satellite remote sensing, meteorological data, and field observations, and a self - built yield model based on a deep - learning algorithm [6][7][12]. - **Yield Estimation Results**: Overall, the growth and development of key crops in each region are in good condition, and the yields are generally on the rise. The US soybean and corn regions are likely to set historical records. Cotton yields have increased compared to the previous month. Canadian rapeseed yields are expected to reach 2.27 tons per hectare, and Australian rapeseed yields have been raised to 1.79 tons per hectare [13]. Global Key Agricultural Product Growth Monitoring - **Malaysian and Indonesian Palm Oil Producing Areas**: Vegetation indices in the Malay Peninsula and Sumatra have increased, while those in Kalimantan have declined. Only precipitation in the Malay Peninsula has increased, and temperature and humidity have fluctuated moderately [16][19]. - **US Soybean and Corn Producing Areas**: Vegetation indices in most states have increased significantly. The growth of soybeans and corn in the Midwest has reached a new high, and the eastern region is also above the historical average. Precipitation shows regional differentiation, and soil humidity in most states has increased significantly. Temperature fluctuations are moderate [25][30][31]. - **US Cotton Producing Areas**: Vegetation indices show a differentiated trend, with Oklahoma showing overall growth and the southeast experiencing a decline in LAI. Precipitation varies greatly, and soil humidity fluctuates slightly. Temperatures in the southeast have decreased, while those in Oklahoma and Texas have slightly increased [40][41][45]. - **Canadian Rapeseed Producing Areas**: No detailed content provided in the report. - **Australian Rapeseed Producing Areas**: No detailed content provided in the report. Analysis of the Trends of La Niña and the Indian Ocean Dipole in the Second Half of the Year - La Niña is expected to appear in September, with a weak intensity and lasting until January 2026, with a probability of 50% - 60%. The Indian Ocean Dipole has turned negative, which together promotes more precipitation in Southeast Asia, making it difficult to form a long - term drought [2]. Analysis of the Future Weather Trends in South America - The weather in South America is less affected by La Niña. Periodic droughts may affect southern Brazil and northern Argentina, but the rhythm is earlier than in 2024, and the overall intensity is similar [2].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints - External soybean market: The valuation of US soybeans and soybean meal is at a low level. The Brazilian soybean quote is supported by Chinese vessel purchases and Sino - US trade relations. The external soybean market is in a state of low valuation with support and oversupply, lacking a clear directional driver. The domestic soybean import cost is in a state of small - amplitude upward oscillation due to a single supply source [9]. - Domestic double - meal market: The domestic soybean meal spot price fluctuated with the futures this week. The Sino - US negotiation not involving soybeans provided some support, but previous soybean meal vessel purchases and the information of the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs promoting the reduction of soybean meal consumption may continue to suppress the valuation. The domestic market had good transactions this week, and the提货 was at a relatively high level. The soybean inventory in China may decline around the end of September, and the domestic soybean - related prices may bottom out and oscillate before that. The soybean meal market is a mix of long and short factors. It is recommended to try long positions at the low end of the cost range and pay attention to crushing margins and supply pressure at the high end, waiting for progress in Sino - US tariffs and new drivers from the supply side. For arbitrage, pay attention to widening the spread of the soybean meal - rapeseed meal 09 contract [9]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Week - on - Week Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - **International Soybeans**: US soybeans were weakly declining this week due to good weather bringing harvest pressure and the lack of positive impact on US soybean exports from Sino - US negotiations. The USDA August monthly report may maintain the July report's inventory - to - sales ratio of 7.06% for US soybeans in the 25/26 season and 29.65% for global soybeans in the 25/26 season [9]. - **Domestic Double - Meal**: The domestic soybean meal spot price fluctuated with the futures. The Sino - US negotiation not involving soybeans provided support, but previous vessel purchases and the promotion of reduced soybean meal consumption may suppress the valuation. As of the end of last week, the inventory days of feed enterprises slightly decreased to 8.05 days, slightly higher than the same period last year. The vessel purchase schedule indicates that the domestic soybean inventory may decline around the end of September [9]. - **Strategies**: In the soybean meal market, try long positions at the low end of the cost range and pay attention to crushing margins and supply pressure at the high end, waiting for Sino - US tariff progress and new supply - side drivers. For arbitrage, widen the spread of the soybean meal - rapeseed meal 09 contract [9][10][11]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - **Spot Prices**: There are charts showing the spot prices of soybean meal in Dongguan, Guangdong and rapeseed meal in Huangpu, Guangdong [17][18]. - **Basis of Main Contracts**: There are charts showing the basis of the soybean meal 09 contract and the rapeseed meal 09 contract [20][21]. - **Spreads**: There are charts showing spreads such as the soybean meal 09 - 01 spread, soybean meal 09 - rapeseed meal 09 spread, etc. [23][24]. - **Fund Positions**: There are charts showing the net long positions of US soybean and US soybean meal managed funds [26][28]. 3.3 Supply Side - **US Soybean Planting Progress**: There are charts showing the US soybean planting progress, emergence rate, flowering rate, and excellent - good rate [32][33]. - **Weather Conditions**: There are charts showing the weighted precipitation in US soybean - producing areas and Canadian rapeseed - producing areas, and there is a possibility of La Nina occurring from October 2025 to January [35][38]. - **US Soybean Export Progress**: There are charts showing the total export contracts of US soybeans to China in the current market year, the sales completion rate, etc. [52][53]. - **China's Oilseed Imports**: There are charts showing China's monthly soybean and rapeseed imports and forecasts [55][56]. - **China's Oil Mill Crushing**: There are charts showing the soybean and rapeseed crushing volumes of major oil mills [57][58]. 3.4 Profit and Inventory - **Oilseed Inventory**: There are charts showing the soybean port inventory and the rapeseed inventory of major oil mills [61][62]. - **Protein Meal Inventory**: There are charts showing the soybean meal inventory and forecast of coastal major oil mills and the rapeseed meal inventory of coastal major oil mills [64][65]. - **Protein Meal Crushing Profit**: There are charts showing the crushing profits of imported soybeans in Guangdong and imported rapeseed along the coast [66][67]. 3.5 Demand Side - **Soybean Meal Demand**: There are charts showing the cumulative transaction volume of soybean meal in major oil mills in the crop year and the apparent consumption of soybean meal [68][69]. - **Breeding Profit**: There are charts showing the average profit per head of self - breeding and self - raising pigs and the breeding profit of white - feather broilers [71][72].

Core Insights - The U.S. Climate Prediction Center (CPC) indicates a tendency to maintain a neutral state of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) by late autumn and early winter, but confidence in this forecast is low [1] - The probability of ENSO neutral conditions is estimated at 48%, while the probability of La Niña conditions is at 41% [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - The report does not explicitly mention an overall industry investment rating. However, for individual commodities, the ratings are as follows: - Oils and Fats: Oscillating [6] - Protein Meal: Oscillating in the short - term, bullish in the long - term [7] - Corn and Starch: Oscillating and declining [8] - Live Pigs: Oscillating [10] - Natural Rubber: Oscillating [11] - Synthetic Rubber: Oscillating [15] - Cotton: Oscillating [15] - Sugar: Oscillating in the short - term, oscillating and bearish in the long - term [16] - Pulp: Oscillating [17] - Logs: Oscillating and bearish [18] 2. Core Views of the Report - The report analyzes multiple agricultural commodities. It points out that the end of the year may see the emergence of La Nina, which will boost the sentiment for long - positions in protein meal. The prices of different agricultural products are affected by various factors such as international trade policies, weather conditions, supply and demand relationships, and macro - economic environments. Different commodities show different trends in the short and long terms [1][7]. 3. Summary by Commodity Oils and Fats - **View**: Yesterday, the market was oscillating and differentiated, with palm oil leading the rise. It is expected to oscillate in the medium - term [6]. - **Logic**: Tensions in US foreign trade and good weather in US soybean - growing areas led to a decline in US soybeans on Friday, while US soybean oil was oscillating and bullish. Domestically, the three major oils were oscillating and differentiated, with palm oil being bullish. Macro - environment factors include the strengthening of the US dollar and the rise of crude oil prices. The USDA July report was relatively neutral. Overseas biodiesel demand for oils is expected to be optimistic, and domestic soybean oil inventory is rising. Palm oil is in the production - increasing season, with expected increases in both production and exports. Domestic rapeseed oil inventory is high, and the import situation needs attention [6]. Protein Meal - **View**: The end of the year may see the emergence of La Nina, boosting market sentiment for long - positions. It is expected to oscillate in the short - term and be bullish in the long - term [7]. - **Logic**: Internationally, US soybeans are growing well, but Sino - US trade frictions affect exports. Brazilian soybean exports are still high. CFTC net long positions are decreasing. Domestically, changes in tariff exemptions have hindered the import of granular meal. Supply pressure dominates the weak spot market, but concerns about Sino - US trade support the futures price. Soybean arrivals are increasing, and downstream replenishment is insufficient. In the long - run, fourth - quarter purchases are slow, and the inventory of breeding sows is increasing, indicating stable or increasing demand for soybean meal [7]. - **Outlook**: Domestic double - meal futures are stronger than US soybeans, and the domestic futures market is stronger than the spot market. The basis is expected to weaken. Oil mills can sell on rallies, and downstream enterprises can buy basis contracts or fix prices at low levels. Unilateral long - positions can be established at around 2900 [2]. Corn and Starch - **View**: Traders are actively selling, and market sentiment is weak. It is expected to oscillate and decline [8]. - **Logic**: Futures prices rebounded after a sharp decline on Friday night. In the spot market, trading is active, and some deep - processing plants in the Northeast and North China have lowered their purchase prices. The cumulative auction of imported corn has a certain turnover rate. In the annual structure, imports are expected to decline, but the supply is supplemented by wheat and imported corn, and the cost of new - season corn is decreasing, resulting in weak market sentiment [9]. Live Pigs - **View**: Normal slaughtering in the middle of the month, with prices fluctuating slightly. It is expected to oscillate [10]. - **Logic**: In the short - term, large pigs are being slaughtered at an accelerated pace, but the average weight has bottomed out and is rising. The planned slaughter volume in July is decreasing, and the supply pressure is temporarily low. In the medium - term, the number of newborn piglets has been increasing, indicating potential growth in the second half of the year. In the long - term, the production capacity is still high. The ratio of pork to feed is increasing, and the weight - reduction trend is blocked. In the short - term, the market is affected by macro - regulation signals, but the sustainability is questionable. In the medium - and long - term, there is supply pressure from sows and weight [10]. - **Outlook**: The expectation of supply - side reform boosts the sentiment of live - pig futures. The industry has completed a small - scale weight - reduction, and the inventory pressure of large farms has been released, but there is still supply pressure in the medium - and long - term [10]. Natural Rubber - **View**: Macro - sentiment supports rubber prices. It is expected to oscillate [11]. - **Logic**: The trading logic of natural rubber follows macro - sentiment. After a previous rally in some commodities, rubber, with relatively low valuation, was favored by funds. Currently, the market is in a strong - expectation atmosphere, and the fundamentals are stable. Supply is limited due to rain in Asian producing areas, and demand from tire enterprises has recovered [14]. Synthetic Rubber - **View**: The futures market is oscillating. It is expected to oscillate within a range [15]. - **Logic**: After a sharp rally last week, it returned to an oscillating state yesterday, supported by macro - factors and improved trading of butadiene. The fundamentals of butadiene have improved, with increased demand and limited supply, which also boosts the synthetic rubber market [15]. Cotton - **View**: Low inventory versus weak demand, resulting in a stalemate in cotton prices. It is expected to oscillate in the short - term [15]. - **Logic**: The USDA July report was bearish, with an increase in the expected global cotton production in the 25/26 season. Demand is in the off - season, with a decline in textile mill operations and an increase in finished - product inventory. The cotton - yarn price spread is narrowing. Current commercial inventory is low, making cotton prices resistant to decline but difficult to rise. In the medium - term, new - crop production is expected to increase, suppressing the upside of the futures price [15]. - **Outlook**: It is expected to oscillate in the short - term, with a reference range of 13500 - 14300 yuan/ton [15]. Sugar - **View**: Inventory is low, but subsequent imports are expected to increase. It is expected to oscillate in the short - term and be bearish in the long - term [16]. - **Logic**: In the long - term, the global sugar market is expected to have a surplus in the 25/26 season, with production increases expected in major producing countries. In the short - term, Brazil's sugar production and cane crushing are lower than last year, and China's sugar sales rate is high, with low industrial inventory, supporting sugar prices. However, Brazil will enter the peak production and export season, and China's imports will increase [16]. - **Outlook**: In the long - run, sugar prices are expected to decline due to expected supply surplus. In the short - run, there are few bullish factors, and domestic sugar prices are expected to oscillate [16]. Pulp - **View**: Macro - factors dominate the trend, and pulp prices are rising within a range. It is expected to oscillate [17]. - **Logic**: Yesterday, pulp futures rose following the macro - environment. The supply and demand are weak, and the upward drive mainly comes from the macro - environment. The US dollar price is declining, overseas pulp mill inventory is high, and downstream paper is in the off - season. The futures price is relatively low, providing some support. In the medium - term, if there is inventory accumulation, pulp prices may rise in a wave - like pattern, but the increase is limited [17]. - **Outlook**: The 09 contract is expected to fluctuate between 5150 - 5400, and the 01 contract between 5200 - 5500. Bilateral trading within the range is recommended [17]. Logs - **View**: It is difficult to rise or fall, and it is expected to oscillate and be bearish [18]. - **Logic**: The first - month delivery of logs is ongoing, and the inflow of delivery goods into the spot market has put pressure on prices. Both sellers and buyers face increased costs. Although it is the off - season, the overall demand for logs this year is stable, and the inventory - reduction pace is slow. New foreign quotes have increased, but the willingness of domestic traders to buy at the bottom is strong. The supply reduction is expected to weaken, and the spot market is at the bottom - building stage [18].

Group 1 - The domestic and international protein meal and oil futures markets have experienced significant dynamics recently, particularly in soybean and rapeseed meal and oil sectors [1] - Canadian canola seed exports sharply decreased by 72.1% in the week of July 6, dropping from 173,500 tons to 48,400 tons [1] - The USDA's latest drought report indicates that approximately 9% of the U.S. soybean planting area was affected by drought as of July 8, up from 8% the previous week and the same as last year [1] Group 2 - The Brazilian Ministry of Agriculture's CONAB forecasts a soybean production of 169.4879 million tons for the 2024/25 season, an increase of 21.766 million tons year-on-year [1] - The USDA reported that net sales of U.S. soybeans for the 2024/25 season increased to 503,000 tons, with cumulative sales reaching 50.44 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 5.62 million tons [1] - The U.S. imposing an additional 50% tariff on Brazilian products will raise farm costs, impact the soybean supply chain, and pose risks to international markets [1] Group 3 - In the palm oil sector, Malaysia's palm oil exports in June were 1,259,354 tons, a month-on-month decrease of 10.52% [1] - Malaysia's palm oil production fell to 1,692,310 tons in June, a month-on-month decline of 4.48%, marking the first decrease in four months [1] - Palm oil inventories in Malaysia rose to 2,030,580 tons, a month-on-month increase of 2.41%, reaching the highest level since December 2023 [1]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided on the industry investment rating. 2. Core View of the Report - In the second half of 2025, the US soybean futures will maintain a range - bound pattern, with the core operating range between 900 - 1150 cents per bushel [2]. - The supply is loose, which suppresses the upper limit; the cost provides support at the lower limit; and there is a structural differentiation in the inventory - to - consumption ratio [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 2025 H1 US Soybean Futures Trend Review - January - February: South American weather factors and Sino - US trade friction expectations jointly pushed up prices. Adverse weather in Argentina and Brazil affected supply, and Chinese crushers' concentrated purchases of US soybeans due to potential trade risks increased demand [7]. - March: The market showed "expected - realization" characteristics, and the improvement of Brazil's harvesting progress led to price corrections. After the tariff announcements, the price first declined and then rebounded, and later entered a sideways - shock pattern [7]. - April: The downward adjustment of the new - crop area estimate and the end of the trade - war negative news led to a V - shaped reversal in price and then maintained a shock. The expected reduction in the US soybean planting area and the market's expectation of tariff reduction drove the price movement [8]. - May: The easing of trade tensions led to narrow price fluctuations. The Sino - US agreement improved the trade outlook and increased the market's expectation of China's demand recovery [8]. 3.2 Supply - Demand Framework: A Volatile Pattern under the Game of Bulls and Bears 3.2.1 Supply Side: Structural Contradictions in the Loose Pattern - Global oilseeds: In the 2025/26 season, the global oilseed market will see a mild increase in both supply and demand. The total output of seven core oilseed varieties is expected to reach 692.1 million tons (+2.2% year - on - year), and the total consumption is expected to reach 687.65 million tons (+2.9% year - on - year). The inventory - to - consumption ratio will remain at 20.8%. The market is expected to continue the range - bound trend [13]. - Global soybeans: In the 2025/26 season, the global soybean output and consumption will both increase. The output is expected to reach 426.82 million tons, and the consumption will reach 424.05 million tons. The inventory - to - consumption ratio will drop to 20.3%, but it is still at a relatively high level, indicating an overall supply - surplus situation [20]. - Brazil: The soybean harvesting area is expected to increase to 48.8 million hectares, and the output is expected to reach a record 175 million tons. Domestic consumption and exports are also expected to increase. However, the final output depends on the weather during the growing season [22][23]. - US: The soybean harvesting area is expected to decrease by about 1.35 million hectares. The output is expected to be 111.8 million tons, a slight decrease. Exports are expected to decrease, while domestic consumption is expected to increase. The inventory - to - consumption ratio will drop to 6.7%, indicating a tight - balance supply - demand situation [26]. - Argentina: In the 2025/26 season, the soybean output is expected to be 48.5 million tons, and the domestic consumption is expected to be 50.5 million tons. The inventory - to - consumption ratio is 13.2%, indicating a balanced supply - demand relationship [29]. 3.2.2 Demand Side: The Rigid Growth of Protein Meal Consumption - The feed protein raw material supply pattern is diversified, with soybean meal accounting for 70% of the market share. In the 2025/26 season, the global protein raw material consumption will maintain a steady growth trend. The total consumption is expected to exceed 394.78 million tons, an increase of 14.82 million tons (+3.9% year - on - year) [33][34]. - Since 2020, the global protein meal consumption has shown a differentiated growth trend. Rapeseed meal has the highest consumption growth rate, and emerging economies have become the main driving force for the growth of protein meal consumption [40]. 3.3 Trading Strategies: Trading Opportunities in a Volatile Market 3.3.1 US Soybean Prices in H2 2025: Mainly Sideways - Shocking - The global oilseed market shows a pattern of increasing supply and demand, and the overall supply is relatively loose. The high - yield pressure in South America and the cost support in North America form a game of bulls and bears. It is expected that the US soybean prices will maintain a range - bound trend in the second half of 2025 [42]. 3.3.2 Trading Strategies - Strategy 1: Band - buying based on cost support. Buy at the level of 900 - 950 cents per bushel, set the stop - loss at around 880 cents per bushel, and the target price at 1100 - 1150 cents per bushel [44]. - Strategy 2: A positive spread strategy of buying January and selling May. Due to the tight US soybean balance sheet and the probability of Brazil's continued expansion of planting, this strategy is highly feasible, and the better buying times are July and October [45].