机制电价竞价结果加速落地，"41+9"打造氢能新动力 环保公用事业行业周报（2025/12/07） 周期/环保及公用事业 本周环保板块下跌，公用事业板块上涨。环保（申万）行业指数下跌 0.15%， 公用事业（申万）行业指数上涨 0.12%，相对市场整体涨跌幅较小。 ❑ 风险提示：政策落实低于预期、煤炭及硅料价格下跌、项目进展低于预期、 国际政治局势变化的风险等。 推荐（维持） 行业规模 | | | 占比% | | --- | --- | --- | | 股票家数（只） | 242 | 4.7 | | 总市值（十亿元） | 4009.2 | 3.8 | | 流通市值（十亿元） | 3711.5 | 3.9 | 证券研究报告|行业定期报告 2025 年 12 月 09 日 证券研究报告 | 行业定期报告 2025 年 12 月 09 日 行业指数 % 1m 6m 12m 绝对表现 -4.2 12.9 15.1 相对表现 -3.0 -6.4 -1.2 资料来源：公司数据、招商证券 -20 -10 0 10 20 30 Dec/24 Apr/25 Jul/25 Nov/25 (%) 环保及公用事业 沪深300 相关报 ...

| | | | | 操作评级 | 2025年12月08日 | | --- | --- | --- | | 显一 | な☆☆ | 杨蕊霞 农产品组长 | | 豆粕 | ななな | F0285733 Z0011333 | | 豆油 | ななな | 吴小明 首席分析师 | | | | F3078401 Z0015853 | | 棕櫚油 | ななな | 董甜甜 高级分析师 | | 菜粕 | ★☆☆ | F0302203 Z0012037 | | 菜油 | ★☆☆ | 宋腾 高级分析师 | | 玉米 | ななな | F03135787 Z0021166 | | 生猪 | ななな | | | 鸡蛋 | ★☆☆ | 010-58747784 | | | | gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn | 【豆一】 国产大豆表现为横盘震荡调整。现货报价平稳。国内仓单增加。上周中储粮大豆竞价收购2025年国产新豆国标 三等及以上大豆全部成交，均价3972元/吨。美豆方面美国仍然在向中国销售大豆,不过由于美国比巴西大豆缺 少价格竞争优势，市场对美豆销售进度存在忧虑的情绪，另外南美天气本周出现降雨,因此美豆价格出现回 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Macro Finance**: Bullish on stock indices in the medium to long term, suggesting buying on dips; expecting treasury bonds to trade sideways [1][5] - **Black Building Materials**: Recommending range trading for coking coal and rebar; advising to wait and not chase highs for glass [1][5][7] - **Non - ferrous Metals**: Suggesting range trading for copper, tin, and gold; recommending to reduce long positions when aluminum rebounds to a high level; advising to wait and see or short on rallies for nickel; suggesting to hold long positions in silver and be cautious about new positions; expecting lithium carbonate to trade with a bullish bias [1][10][11][15] - **Energy and Chemicals**: Recommending range trading for PVC, styrene, rubber, urea, and methanol; suggesting to wait and see for caustic soda and soda ash; expecting polyolefins to trade weakly [1][19][21][26] - **Cotton and Textile Industry Chain**: Expecting cotton and cotton yarn to trade with a bullish bias; expecting PTA to rise in a sideways movement; expecting apples to trade with a bullish bias; expecting red dates to trade weakly [1][27][28][29] - **Agriculture and Animal Husbandry**: Recommending a strategy of shorting on rallies for near - term hog contracts and being cautiously bullish on far - term contracts; expecting egg prices to face limited upside; suggesting to be cautious about chasing highs in the short term for corn and for grain holders to hedge on rallies; recommending range trading for soybean meal; suggesting to take profits on previous long positions in soybean and palm oil and beware of correction risks [1][30][32][36] Core Views The report provides trading suggestions for various futures products based on their market fundamentals, supply - demand relationships, and macro - economic factors. It analyzes the price trends and investment opportunities of different sectors, including macro finance, black building materials, non - ferrous metals, energy and chemicals, cotton and textile industry chain, and agriculture and animal husbandry [1][5][10] Summary by Directory Macro Finance - **Stock Indices**: A - shares fluctuated and recovered. Although the market's main line rotated quickly and trading volume was poor, expectations of Fed rate cuts and domestic meetings supported the indices. They are expected to trade sideways in the short term and be bullish in the medium to long term [5] - **Treasury Bonds**: Treasury bond futures opened and closed lower. Whether the market can break out of the current range depends on the actual buying power of year - end allocation funds and the guidance of important meetings on next year's economic situation and monetary policy. They are expected to trade sideways [5] Black Building Materials - **Double Coking**: The coal market continued to decline, with weak demand and a strong bearish sentiment. It is expected to trade in a range [6][7] - **Rebar**: Futures prices rebounded slightly. The current valuation is neutral to low, and there are no significant short - term supply - demand contradictions. It is expected to trade sideways at a low level [7] - **Glass**: Futures prices rebounded recently due to rumors of production line shutdowns and increased purchases by futures - cash traders. However, the overall inventory pressure is still large, and it is recommended to wait and not chase highs [8][9] Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: The safety situation in the DRC is complex. Although long - term demand is optimistic, short - term high prices may suppress consumption. It is recommended to trade in a range [10] - **Aluminum**: The supply of bauxite is expected to increase, and the overall demand is entering the off - season. It is recommended to reduce long positions when the price rebounds to a high level [11] - **Nickel**: The supply of nickel ore may become more abundant in the future, and the refined nickel market is in a surplus. It is recommended to wait and see or short on rallies [13][14][15] - **Tin**: Tin production increased in October, and the supply of tin concentrate is tight. The price is expected to be supported, and it is recommended to trade in a range [15] - **Silver and Gold**: Supported by expectations of Fed rate cuts and safe - haven demand, they are expected to trade sideways. It is recommended to hold long positions in silver and trade gold in a range [16][17] - **Lithium Carbonate**: Supply and demand are in a tight balance. It is expected to trade with a bullish bias, and attention should be paid to the progress of mines in Yichun and the resumption of production at Ningde's mine [17][18][19] Energy and Chemicals - **PVC**: The cost is at a low level, supply is high, and demand is weak. It is expected to continue to trade at a low level [19] - **Caustic Soda**: Inventory is high, and the valuation is suppressed by the expected reduction in alumina production. It is recommended to wait and see [21] - **Styrene**: The overseas blending logic cannot change the weak fundamentals in the short term. It is expected to trade sideways [21] - **Rubber**: Supply is increasing during the peak season, and demand is poor. It is expected to trade in a range [22] - **Urea**: Supply is increasing, and agricultural demand is weakening. However, the reduction in inventory provides support, and it is expected to trade sideways [23][24] - **Methanol**: Domestic supply has recovered, and port inventory has decreased. It is expected to trade sideways [25] - **Polyolefins**: Inventory continued to decline, but demand is insufficient after the peak season. PE is expected to trade in a range, and PP is expected to trade weakly [25][26] - **Soda Ash**: Supply is in excess, but the cost provides support. It is recommended to wait and see [26] Cotton and Textile Industry Chain - **Cotton and Cotton Yarn**: Although global supply - demand data is relatively loose, domestic cotton sales are fast, and yarn prices are firm. They are expected to trade with a bullish bias [27][28] - **PTA**: Affected by geopolitical factors and supply - demand dynamics, it is expected to rise in a sideways movement [28] - **Apples**: The trading volume in the warehouse is general, and prices are expected to trade with a bullish bias [29] - **Red Dates**: The acquisition progress in Xinjiang is about 80%. Enterprises' acquisition enthusiasm is average, and prices are expected to trade weakly [30] Agriculture and Animal Husbandry - **Hogs**: In the short term, supply pressure remains, and prices are expected to adjust slightly. In the long term, capacity reduction has accelerated but is still above the normal level. It is recommended to short on rallies for near - term contracts and be cautiously bullish on far - term contracts [30][31][32] - **Eggs**: The supply is still sufficient, but short - term supply - demand conditions have marginally improved. In the long term, capacity reduction still takes time. It is recommended to wait and see [32][33] - **Corn**: In the short term, price rebounds may be limited by increased supply. In the long term, cost support is strong, but the supply - demand pattern is relatively loose. It is recommended to be cautious about chasing highs and for grain holders to hedge on rallies [34][35] - **Soybean Meal**: The price of US soybeans is expected to trade in a narrow range. Domestic supply is sufficient in December and January. It is recommended to trade in a range [36][37] - **Oils and Fats**: In the short term, the three major domestic oils lack further positive factors and are expected to trade at a high level. It is recommended to take profits on previous long positions in soybean and palm oil and beware of correction risks [37][38][42]

数据日报 国贸期货研究院 农产品研究中心 黄向岚 投资咨询号: Z0021658 从业资格号: F03110419 2025/12/4 | 指标 | | 12月3日 | 涨跌 | | | | 豆粕主力合约基差(张家港) | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 大连 | 94 | | 1600 1200 800 | ニニニー 18/19 ----- 22/23 | | ----- 19/20 ----- 23/24 | == - 24/25 | | == - 25/26 | | | 天津 | 54 | | | | | | | | | | | 日照 | -26 | | | | | | | | | | 43%豆粕现货基差 | 张家港 | 14 | | | | | | | | | | (对主力合约) | | | | 400 01/21 | 02/71 03/24 | | 04/24 05/25 06/25 07/26 08/26 09/26 | | 10/27 11/27 12/28 | | | | ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 中信期货研究|农业策略⽇报 2025-12-2 逆工业品走势下跌，天胶维持区间震荡 油脂：昨日震荡分化，关注马棕产需情况 蛋白粕：现货挺价盘面震荡，豆粕基差小幅走高 玉米/淀粉：东北持续走强，华北压力初显 生猪：出栏压力依旧，价格低位震荡 天然橡胶：逆工业品走势下跌，天胶维持区间震荡 合成橡胶：驱动不强，维持跟随震荡 棉花：套保压力制约短期上方高度 白糖：糖价低位震荡 纸浆：期货表现依旧疲弱，但纸浆低位存在支撑 双胶纸：12月提货仍有支撑，双胶纸窄幅震荡 原木：基本面矛盾不大，原木进入低估值区间 风险因素：宏观大幅变动；气候异常；供需超预期变化 【异动品种】 天然橡胶观点：逆工业品走势下跌，天胶维持区间震荡 逻辑：天胶受泰国洪水减弱、产出放量压力依旧、国内港口累库、以及日 胶走势偏弱影响，昨日价格逆工业品走势下跌。天胶近期维持窄幅震荡格 局，上周先是泰南产区洪水消息发酵，但盘面并没有给出相应的反应，反 倒是在累库、NR新增交割替代品以及EUDR确认再度延期等偏利空消息的影 响下震荡下行，但同时又受下游采购积极性，以及本身估值相对偏低的支 撑，幅度也是非常有限。而 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" investment rating for the environmental and public utility sector [2] Core Insights - The environmental and public utility sectors have shown an upward trend, with the environmental index increasing by 1.59% and the public utility index by 0.89% [5][10] - The coal industry is experiencing a decline in production, with national raw coal output decreasing by 3.8%, 3.2%, and 1.8% in July, August, and September respectively [5] - The report highlights the introduction of new pricing regulations for transmission and distribution, encouraging the exploration of capacity pricing for cross-regional projects [8][50] - The report suggests focusing on investment opportunities in the power sector, particularly recommending companies like Guodian Power and Anhui Energy [5] Summary by Sections Key Event Interpretations - New transmission and distribution pricing regulations have been released, promoting capacity pricing for cross-regional projects [8] - The oil and gas extraction sector has been included in the carbon market, incentivizing methane reduction [9] Market Review - Both the environmental and public utility sectors have seen increases, with the environmental sector outperforming the market with a cumulative increase of 16.94% in 2025 [10] - The power sector has lagged behind, with a cumulative increase of only 2.43% [10] Key Data Tracking - As of November 28, 2025, the price of Qinhuangdao 5500 kcal thermal coal is 820 CNY/ton, remaining stable week-on-week [24] - The average price of LNG at the port is 10.94 USD/million BTU (4026 CNY/ton), down 4.42% from the previous week [37] - The weighted average electricity price in Guangdong reached a peak of 252.14 CNY/MWh on November 24, 2025, an increase of 10.7% [41] Industry Key Events - The Hebei Development and Reform Commission has issued a work plan for long-term electricity trading in 2026 [49] - The National Development and Reform Commission has published new pricing methods for cross-regional transmission projects [50]

Report Industry Investment Rating No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints The report presents a comprehensive analysis of various commodities and markets, with most commodities expected to show an oscillatory trend, and some showing a tendency of oscillating strongly or weakly. Market conditions are influenced by multiple factors such as supply - demand relationships, policy environments, and geopolitical events [3]. Summary by Category Financial - **Stock Index**: In a market with shrinking volume, potential lifting of the ban on share sales and reduction pressure, and a policy window period, funds are congested and waiting to be released. A dumbbell - shaped strategy of looking at the long - term and trading in the short - term is recommended, with an oscillatory trend [3]. - **Treasury Bonds**: The central bank conducts treasury bond trading, and subsequent aggregate monetary policy tools may be further implemented. In the fourth quarter, the allocation demand of institutional investors may increase seasonally, and the market is expected to oscillate strongly. Currently, opportunities for curve steepening and positive spreads are recommended [3]. Precious Metals - **Gold and Silver**: Attention should be paid to the release of US PMI and ADP employment data this week. The price of London gold is expected to be in the range of [4000, 4400], and that of London silver in the range of [53, 60], showing an oscillatory trend [3]. Base Metals - **Copper**: Supply constraints persist, and supply - disturbing factors are increasing, so the copper price is expected to oscillate strongly [3]. - **Aluminum**: In the short - term, the macro - sentiment is volatile, and the fundamentals are stable, so the aluminum price is expected to oscillate strongly. In the medium - term, the marginal increase in supply is limited, and demand has certain resilience, so the price center is expected to rise [3]. - **Alumina**: The current supply - demand is in excess, but the valuation is in a low - level range, so it is expected to oscillate [3]. - **Zinc**: Recently, the inventory of LME zinc has increased significantly, but the "short squeeze" has not eased significantly. Entering the off - season of consumption, downstream demand for zinc ingots is weakening, and supply remains high. However, the export window for domestic zinc ingots has opened, and domestic inventory is decreasing. The zinc price is expected to oscillate [3]. - **Tin**: With the current tightness in the ore end, the bottom support for the tin price is strong, so it is expected to oscillate strongly [3]. - **Lead**: Currently at the end of the traditional peak consumption season, but the replacement of old cars and electric bicycles is still ongoing. The orders for lead - acid batteries have improved, and the procurement demand for lead - zinc is expected to remain high. Recently, many primary and secondary lead smelters have carried out maintenance, and lead ingot production has declined. The lead price is expected to oscillate [3]. - **Nickel**: The current supply - demand is loose, and the nickel price is expected to oscillate weakly in the short - term. In the long - term, it depends on the official announcement of next year's nickel ore quota in Indonesia, which may decrease, so there is uncertainty in supply, and the nickel price is expected to oscillate [3]. - **Stainless Steel**: Due to the suppression of the price by the fundamentals during the seasonal off - season transition, but considering the long - term suppression of industry profits and the support from the ore end, the price is expected to oscillate, and attention should be paid to inventory changes and cost changes [3]. New Energy Metals - **Lithium Carbonate**: The short - term supply - demand is in a tight balance, with medium - term looseness and short - term shortages coexisting. The price is expected to oscillate widely [3]. - **Polysilicon**: The anti - involution policy has significantly boosted the polysilicon price, but the demand is also weakening. The price is expected to oscillate widely. Attention should be paid to whether there are substantial policy signals at the end of the year and the process of new warrant registration [3]. - **Industrial Silicon**: If the silicone industry cuts production, the demand for industrial silicon will further weaken, and the inventory pressure may increase again. However, the short - term market sentiment is volatile. The price is expected to oscillate, and attention should be paid to the progress of new warrant registration [3]. - **Cobalt**: The conflict in eastern Congo has escalated, and although it has not affected cobalt mining for the time being, the potential risks are expected to increase, so the cobalt price is expected to oscillate strongly [3]. Black Building Materials - **Coking Coal**: Although the fundamentals of coking coal have slightly deteriorated, the current valuation of the futures market is too low, and the low - production state in China will continue. The downstream has strong expectations of replenishing inventory, and the spot price has bottom support. The near - month contract price is expected to oscillate, and the far - month contract is expected to oscillate strongly [3]. - **Coke**: The fundamentals of coke are still healthy, and the price mainly follows the cost of coking coal. In the case of the continued weakening of raw material spot prices, the current round of price cuts is expected to be implemented, but there are still expectations of winter inventory replenishment. The continuous implementation of multiple rounds of price cuts is less likely, and the futures price is expected to oscillate following coking coal [3]. - **Iron Ore**: There is still a seasonal decline expectation for molten iron output, the rigid demand support is gradually weakening, and the inventory replenishment demand has not been significantly released. After the previous price increase, there is insufficient support for further upward movement. The short - term ore price is expected to oscillate [3]. - **Hot - Rolled Coil**: The demand side still has resilience, and inventory continues to decline, but the pressure of high - year - on - year inventory remains, and the fundamental contradiction has not been resolved. The Sino - US presidential call sent a positive signal, and the Central Economic Work Conference in December is approaching, and the macro - environment is still warm. The futures price has the driving force to rebound from a low level, but the upward space is limited, and it is expected to oscillate widely at a low level [3]. - **Rebar**: The fundamentals of rebar have continued to improve recently. The National Development and Reform Commission organized a symposium on the cost determination of disorderly price competition. The Central Economic Work Conference in December is approaching, there are still expectations of overseas interest rate cuts, and the Sino - US presidential call sent a positive signal, and the macro - environment is warm. The futures price has the driving force to rebound from a low level. However, the inventory level of rebar is still high year - on - year, and as the off - season deepens, the demand expectation is still under pressure, and the fundamental highlights are limited. The upward space of the futures price is limited, and it is expected to oscillate widely at a low level [3]. - **Silicon Ferrosilicon**: The firm cost supports the bottom of the silicon ferrosilicon price, but the market supply - demand is still loose, and the price increase is weak. The cost transfer to the downstream is difficult. The main - contract futures price is expected to operate at a low level. Attention should be paid to the adjustment of raw material prices and settlement electricity prices [3]. - **Manganese Silicate**: The cost of manganese silicate still has support, but the market supply - demand is loose, and the upward pressure on the price is large. The cost transfer to the downstream is difficult. The futures price is expected to operate at a low level. Attention should be paid to the adjustment range of raw material prices [3]. - **Glass**: In the short - term, the improvement in demand is obvious, and the fundamentals have improved, but the improvement is limited. Only when subsequent cold - repair is further implemented can the glass price continue to recover. Otherwise, the price may decline under the pressure of inventory accumulation during the Spring Festival. In the long - term, due to the increasingly strict environmental protection requirements, the supply side will face clearance and cost increase, and the far - month valuation may rebound [3]. - **Soda Ash**: In the short - term, the supply - demand fundamentals of soda ash have improved to some extent. If the production remains low after the mid - stream inventory reduction, there may be a short - term positive feedback, and the price is expected to oscillate. In the long - term, there will still be low - cost production capacity coming on - stream, and the supply - demand surplus will intensify. The price needs to continue to decline to suppress production [3]. Energy - **Crude Oil**: It is oscillating and waiting for the guidance of the OPEC+ meeting and geopolitical factors [3]. - **Natural Gas**: The European natural gas price is oscillating, and the US natural gas price may be strong in the short - term [3]. - **Steam Coal**: Attention should be paid to the impact of supply - side policies and the change in inventory replenishment rhythm. The medium - and long - term reasonable price range of 570 - 770 still has great reference value [3]. - **Fuel Oil**: High - sulfur fuel oil and low - sulfur fuel oil are both expected to oscillate and decline [3]. - **Asphalt**: The futures price is expected to oscillate and decline [3]. - **LPG**: Attention should be paid to whether the optimistic expectations for Saudi Arabia on December 8 can be fulfilled. Currently, the basis is continuously low, the pressure on refining margins is increasing, and the upward space of the spot price is expected to be relatively limited. The upward space of the futures price should not be overly optimistic. Attention should be paid to the generation of warrants [3]. Chemicals - **Benzene Ethylene**: The inventory accumulation pressure of pure benzene in December is still being realized, and it is expected to oscillate in the short - term [3]. - **PX**: In the short - term, it is greatly affected by sentiment and cost. The price is expected to operate in the range of [6650, 6950], and the PXN is expected to oscillate in the range of [250, 290] US dollars per ton [3]. - **PTA**: It is greatly affected by cost and market sentiment. In the short - term, it will oscillate following the cost, and the price will be sorted in the range of [4650, 4850]. The processing margin of the 01 contract can be operated in the range of [220, 300] yuan per ton [3]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: The price is expected to continue to oscillate in the low - level range in the short - term, and the upward elasticity of the price is obviously pressured. The EG01 - 05 spread can be cautiously reverse - arbitraged at high levels, and the operation space is [-75, -100] [3]. - **Short - Fiber**: The absolute price of short - fiber fluctuates with the raw material, and the processing margin will fluctuate between 950 - 1100 yuan per ton. A short - PF and long - TA position can be lightly established [3]. - **Bottle Chip**: The processing margin has strong support at the short - term range bottom, but the upward pressure is also large. It is expected to operate in the range of [400, 550], and the absolute price of bottle chips will fluctuate with the raw material [3]. - **Methanol**: After the overseas fluctuation information is confirmed, the futures price quickly rebounded to fulfill the expectation. After the rebound this week, the upward momentum of the methanol futures price has weakened. Attention should be paid to whether the digestion trend of coastal inventory can continue, and it is expected to oscillate [3]. - **PP and PE**: The upward space is limited, and they should be regarded as range - bound. The change in maintenance is still the key point of observation [3]. - **Caustic Soda**: The electricity price in December has decreased, and the cost of caustic soda has decreased by 80 yuan per ton, opening the downward space of the futures price. If the low - profit situation promotes upstream production cuts or the warrant logic before delivery intensifies, the futures price may stabilize [3]. - **PVC**: The 01 contract is facing position - taking games in the short - term and shows a small - scale rebound. In the long - term, if there are no positive factors such as upstream production cuts due to low profits, increased exports, or unexpected policies, the futures price may return to a weak trend [3]. - **Urea**: The domestic urea fundamentals show a pattern of strong supply and weak demand, which is difficult to change. After the inspection of the December reserve progress, the short - term reserve push may return to the normal progress, and this demand support is relatively stable in the long - term. It is expected to oscillate in the short - term, and attention should be paid to the overall progress of off - season storage [3]. Agriculture Feed and Livestock - **Soybean and Soybean Meal**: The US soybean price is expected to oscillate strongly at a high level. The import crushing margin has been repaired, and soybean procurement has accelerated. The oil mill's soybean meal inventory is slowly decreasing seasonally, and downstream customers are placing orders at low - level futures prices, with increased spot trading volume and a rising basis. The soybean - rapeseed meal spread is expected to oscillate strongly. Attention should be paid to the long - position opportunity of the M2605 contract after the contract roll [3]. - **Corn**: In the short - term, it is expected to oscillate strongly. Before the effective repair of downstream and mid - stream inventories, the price is likely to oscillate at a high level. It is necessary to wait for the release of upstream inventory and the alleviation of downstream supply tension [3]. - **Pig**: In the near - term, the pig price will continue to be weak, as the fourth - quarter pig production is still in the period of high - capacity realization, and the end - of - year pressure to sell large pigs is increasing. In the far - term, the Ministry of Agriculture is guiding enterprises to cut production, and the continuous loss of breeding profits is conducive to the reduction of production capacity in the fourth quarter. The far - month contract price is supported by the expectation of production capacity reduction. The pig industry shows a pattern of "weak reality + strong expectation", and attention should be paid to the reverse - arbitrage strategy opportunity [3]. Soft Commodities - **Apple**: Against the background of strong support for the spot price, combined with the expectations of Tomb - Sweeping Festival stocking and possible weather speculation, the futures price is relatively firm, and the sentiment is optimistic. Attention can be paid to the low - long opportunity after a pull - back, and subsequent attention should be paid to the weather changes in the producing areas. The price is expected to oscillate strongly for the time being [3]. - **Rubber**: It is not the time for a trending market, and the current price is closer to the upper pressure level. In terms of arbitrage, the RU - MR spread reached a phased high last week, and one can choose to exit and wait and see [3]. - **Cotton**: In the short - term, it is expected to oscillate in a range; in the long - term, the valuation is low, and it is expected to oscillate strongly. It is advisable to go long at a low price [3]. - **Paper Pulp**: The futures market is mainly about the game of warrants, and the paper pulp futures price is expected to oscillate widely [3]. - **Sugar**: In the medium - and long - term, it is expected to oscillate weakly. Since the global sugar market is expected to have a supply surplus in the new crushing season, the sugar price has a downward driving force. The operation strategy is to go short on rallies [3]. Shipping - **Container Shipping on European Routes**: It is expected to oscillate [3].

Report Overview - This is a weekly view summary from CITIC Futures Research Institute, covering various commodity sectors and providing short - term and medium - term outlooks for each commodity. 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an overall industry investment rating. Instead, it gives individual ratings for each commodity, mainly including "oscillating", "oscillating strongly", and "oscillating weakly". 2. Core Viewpoints - The market is in a state of shrinking volume, with potential unlocking and reduction pressure, and a policy window period. Capital is congested and waiting to be released, suggesting a long - term and short - term investment strategy with a dumbbell structure. - For different commodities, their prices are affected by factors such as supply and demand, cost, policy, and macro - economic environment, showing different trends of oscillation, oscillation strongly, or oscillation weakly. 3. Summary by Commodity Categories Financial - **Stock Index**: Market conditions suggest an oscillating trend [3]. - **Treasury Bonds**: With the central bank's bond trading and potential implementation of total - volume monetary policy tools, the market is expected to oscillate strongly in the fourth quarter. Current suggestions are for curve steepening and arbitrage opportunities [3]. Precious Metals - **Gold and Silver**: Weekly attention is on US PMI and ADP employment data. The price ranges for London gold are [4000, 4400] and for London silver are [53, 60], showing an oscillating trend [3]. Base Metals - **Copper**: Supply constraints and increasing supply disturbances lead to an oscillating strongly trend [3]. - **Aluminum**: Short - term macro - mood fluctuations and a stable fundamental situation result in an oscillating strongly trend. In the medium - term, with limited supply growth and resilient demand, the price center is expected to rise [3]. - **Alumina**: Excess supply in reality but low - level valuation leads to an oscillating trend [3]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: Short - term cost support and stable supply - demand result in an oscillating strongly trend. In the medium - term, strengthened cost support and potential policy disturbances also lead to an oscillating strongly trend [3]. - **Zinc**: Rising inventory, "squeezing position" situation, weakening downstream demand in the off - season, and high supply lead to an oscillating trend [3]. - **Tin**: Tight supply at the mine end provides strong price support, resulting in an oscillating strongly trend [3]. - **Lead**: High procurement demand, production decline due to smelter maintenance, and potential supply shortage lead to an oscillating trend [3]. - **Nickel**: Loose current supply - demand leads to a short - term oscillating weakly trend. Uncertainty in future supply from Indonesia means a medium - to - long - term oscillating trend [3]. - **Stainless Steel**: Fundamental factors and cost support lead to an oscillating trend [3]. New Energy Metals - **Lithium Carbonate**: Short - term tight supply - demand balance, medium - term supply surplus, and recent supply gap lead to wide - range price fluctuations and an oscillating trend [3]. - **Polysilicon**: Policy support and weakening demand result in a wide - range oscillating trend. Attention is on year - end policy signals and the warehouse receipt registration process [3]. - **Industrial Silicon**: Potential demand decline in the organic silicon industry and inventory pressure lead to an oscillating trend. Attention is on new warehouse receipt registration progress [3]. - **Cobalt**: Escalating conflicts in the Democratic Republic of Congo increase potential risks, leading to an oscillating strongly trend [3]. Energy - **Crude Oil**: Oscillating and waiting for guidance from OPEC+ meetings and geopolitical factors [3]. - **Natural Gas**: European gas prices are oscillating, and US gas prices may be strongly oscillating in the short - term [3]. - **Steam Coal**: Attention is on supply - side policies and inventory replenishment rhythm. The medium - to - long - term price range of (570 - 770) is still a significant reference [3]. - **High - Sulfur and Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: Oscillating downward [3]. - **Asphalt**: Futures prices are oscillating downward [3]. - **LPG**: Attention is on whether the optimistic expectations for Saudi Arabia on December 8 can be fulfilled. The basis is low, and the upside space is limited, showing an oscillating trend [3]. Chemicals - **Benzene Ethylene**: Accumulating inventory pressure in December leads to a short - term oscillating trend [3]. - **PX**: Affected by sentiment and cost in the short - term, the price range is [6650, 6950], and PXN is expected to oscillate between [250, 290] dollars per ton [3]. - **PTA**: Affected by cost and market sentiment, the price range is [4650, 4850], and the processing fee for the 01 contract is in the range of [220, 300] yuan per ton [3]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: Prices are expected to continue oscillating in the low - level range, and the EG01 - 05 spread should be cautiously arbitraged at high levels [3]. - **Short - Fiber**: The absolute price follows raw material fluctuations, and the processing fee fluctuates between 950 - 1100 yuan per ton. A short - PF and long - TA position can be lightly attempted [3]. - **Bottle Chips**: The processing fee has strong support at the bottom of the short - term range but also faces significant upward pressure, and the absolute price follows raw material fluctuations [3]. - **Methanol**: After the overseas information is confirmed, the futures price rebounds but shows signs of weakness. Attention is on whether the coastal inventory can continue to be digested [3]. - **PP and PE**: The upside space is limited, and attention is on maintenance changes, showing an oscillating trend [3]. - **Caustic Soda**: A decline in electricity prices in December lowers the cost, and the futures price may decline. If upstream production is cut or the warehouse receipt logic before delivery is fermented, the price may stabilize [3]. - **PVC**: Short - term 01 contract shows a small - scale rebound due to position games. Without positive factors, the price may return to a weak trend in the medium - to - long - term [3]. - **Urea**: The supply - demand pattern is supply - strong and demand - weak. Short - term storage progress may return to normal, and the price is expected to oscillate in the short - term. Attention is on the overall progress of off - season storage [3]. Agriculture - **Soybeans and Soybean Meal**: With an increasing expectation of the Fed's interest - rate cut in December, speculation on South American soybeans, and China's return to the US soybean market, US soybeans and domestic soybeans are expected to oscillate strongly at high levels. The oil mill's soybean meal inventory decline is slow, and the basis is rising. The bean - rapeseed meal spread is expected to oscillate strongly. Attention is on the long position opportunity of the M2605 contract after the main contract change [3]. - **Edible Oils (Soybean Oil, Palm Oil, and Rapeseed Oil)**: With a narrowing expected increase in palm oil production in November, a stable market sentiment, cost support for domestic soybean oil, tight domestic rapeseed supply, and inventory reduction of rapeseed oil, edible oils are expected to oscillate strongly in the near future [3]. - **Corn**: In the short - term, it is oscillating strongly. Before the inventory of the middle and lower reaches is effectively repaired, the price is likely to oscillate at a high level [3]. - **Pigs**: In the near - term, the pig price continues to be weak due to high - level production capacity and large - scale pig slaughter at the end of the year. In the long - term, production capacity reduction expectations support the far - month contract price. The pig industry shows a pattern of "weak reality + strong expectation", and attention is on the reverse - arbitrage strategy opportunity [3]. - **Apples**: With strong support for the spot price, positive expectations from Tomb - Sweeping Festival stockpiling and possible weather speculation, the futures price is relatively firm. Attention is on low - buying opportunities after price corrections and future weather changes in the producing areas [3]. - **Rubber**: It is not the time for a trend - forming market, and the current price is closer to the upper - level pressure. For arbitrage, the RU - MR spread has reached a phased high, and it is advisable to wait and see [3]. - **Cotton**: In the short - term, it oscillates within a range. In the long - term, with a low valuation, it is expected to oscillate strongly, and it is advisable to buy on dips [3]. - **Paper Pulp**: The futures price oscillates widely due to the issue of warehouse receipts [3]. - **Sugar**: In the medium - to - long - term, due to expected supply surplus in the new sugar - making season, the price has a downward driving force, and a short - selling strategy on rallies is recommended [3]. Shipping - **Container Shipping on the European Route**: Shows an oscillating trend. The market's expectation of resuming navigation in the first half of 2026 has increased, but there is still pressure on the far - month contract, and it is difficult to fully resume navigation in the first quarter [3].

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