Group 1 - The current La Niña state is characterized by cooler sea temperatures in the equatorial central and eastern Pacific, leading to concerns about a cold winter, with some suggesting it could be a "super cold winter" [1] - La Niña state does not equate to a La Niña event; a La Niña event is recognized only when the state persists for more than five months [1] - La Niña influences weather patterns by cooling the eastern Pacific and warming the western Pacific, resulting in drier conditions in the east and wetter conditions in the west [1] Group 2 - The probability of a winter similar to the severe cold disaster of 2008 is low, as this year features a La Niña state rather than a stronger La Niña event [2] - Predictions indicate that this winter will have normal to slightly stronger winds, with unfavorable conditions for widespread low-temperature rain and snow events [2] - The analysis suggests significant temperature fluctuations in Guangxi this winter, with potential for extreme low temperatures and reduced precipitation, leading to possible meteorological droughts [2]

Group 1 - The La Niña phenomenon is characterized by a significant and sustained cooling of sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific, which can lead to various climate impacts [3] - The current La Niña state is expected to last until early 2026, but it is unlikely to develop into a La Niña event due to its duration being less than five months [3] - The average precipitation in Liaoning since the beginning of winter is 2.0 mm, which is 60% lower than the normal level, while the average temperature is -5.7°C, slightly lower than the historical average [3] Group 2 - La Niña years typically result in lower temperatures and increased precipitation in Liaoning, leading to a higher probability of extreme weather events such as cold waves and heavy rainfall [5] - The agricultural sector may face challenges due to snow and low temperatures affecting facility agriculture, while the energy sector must prepare for increased heating demand and potential peak energy usage [5] - The transportation sector needs to develop emergency plans to mitigate the impacts of rain, snow, and icy conditions on road traffic [5]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Soybean: ★☆★, suggesting a bullish bias but limited trading opportunities [1] - Soybean oil: ☆☆☆, indicating a bearish trend [1] - Palm oil: ☆☆☆, suggesting a bearish outlook [1] - Rapeseed meal: ★☆☆, showing a bullish inclination but low operability [1] - Rapeseed oil: ★☆☆, indicating a bullish tendency with poor operability [1] - Corn: ★★★, representing a clear bullish trend and suitable investment opportunities [1] - Live pigs: ★★★, suggesting a clear bullish trend and appropriate investment chances [1] - Eggs: ★☆☆, indicating a bullish bias but limited trading space [1] Core Views - The short - term policy is releasing supply to the market, while the new domestic soybean crop has a tightening supply and market hoarding sentiment [2] - The trading logic has changed, with concerns about US soybean exports and expectations of a South American bumper harvest. Wait for South American weather changes and consider going long on the main 05 contract [3] - The main contracts of soybean and palm oil are falling, facing short - term downward pressure and high inventory pressure in the overseas palm oil market [4] - The domestic rapeseed sector is in a bearish trend dominated by supply, and attention should be paid to changes in trade policies [6] - The spot price of corn in the Northeast and North Ports has slightly declined, with the short - term Dalian corn futures 03 contract oscillating at a high level [7] - The live pig futures have increased in positions, and the spot price is strong, but there may be a second bottoming in the first half of next year [8] - The egg futures fluctuate narrowly, and the far - month contracts lack upward momentum. The industry fundamentals are gradually improving [9] Summary by Related Categories Soybean - Domestic soybean decline has slowed down, with a trading average price of 4030 yuan/ton and a rotation - in floor price of 4000 yuan/ton. Imported soybeans had an auction volume of 513,000 tons, with an average transaction price of 3852.1 yuan/ton and a transaction ratio of 62.9% [2] Soybean & Soybean Meal - South American weather has improved, and the US soybean futures price has fallen to a key position. Wait for South American weather changes to go long on the main 05 contract [3] Soybean Oil & Palm Oil - The main contracts of soybean and palm oil have fallen below the lower edge of the range, and there is short - term downward pressure. The Malaysian palm oil market faces high inventory pressure [4] Rapeseed Meal & Rapeseed Oil - The domestic rapeseed sector has fallen significantly. The Australian rapeseed is about to be pressed, and the Canadian rapeseed price is low. The sector is in a supply - dominated bearish trend [6] Corn - The spot price of corn in the Northeast has slightly declined, and the procurement in North China has cooled down. The short - term Dalian corn 03 contract oscillates at a high level [7] Live Pigs - The live pig futures have added over 10,000 lots. The spot price is strong this weekend, but there may be a second bottoming in the first half of next year [8] Eggs - The egg futures fluctuate narrowly, and the far - month contracts lack upward momentum. The industry is in a fundamental improvement stage [9]

Core Viewpoint - The Ministry of Emergency Management emphasizes the need for enhanced safety measures as the winter of 2025 is expected to experience significant temperature fluctuations and increased demand for heating and electricity, particularly during the year-end and New Year period [1][3][12]. Group 1: Safety Preparedness - As the year-end approaches, there is an increase in public gatherings and heightened risks associated with fire, electricity, and gas usage, necessitating collective safety precautions [3]. - The State Council's Work Safety Committee has initiated a major fire risk inspection and rectification action focusing on high-rise buildings, particularly those undergoing exterior renovations or internal modifications [5]. - The National Disaster Reduction and Relief Committee has mandated local authorities to enhance monitoring and emergency preparedness for winter disaster weather, especially during peak holiday periods [7][14]. Group 2: Weather Predictions - The winter of 2025 is predicted to have significant temperature swings, with frequent cold wave events and potential extreme cold occurrences due to the ongoing "La Niña" phenomenon [10][12]. - Specific regions, including central and western China, are expected to experience low temperatures and icy weather intermittently [12]. Group 3: Heating Safety - The use of various heating devices is expected to peak in winter, increasing fire risks; thus, proper selection and usage of heating equipment are critical [18]. - Guidelines for purchasing heating devices include ensuring they have the "3C" certification, focusing on core safety features, and avoiding unqualified products from informal vendors [20]. - Safety measures for using electric heating products include keeping them away from flammable materials, controlling usage time, and avoiding simultaneous charging and use [20]. Group 4: Carbon Monoxide Poisoning Risks - Winter activities such as indoor heating and prolonged idling of vehicles can lead to carbon monoxide poisoning, which is particularly dangerous due to the gas's colorless and odorless nature [21]. - Immediate actions in case of carbon monoxide exposure include ventilating the area, removing the affected person to fresh air, and seeking professional medical assistance if severe symptoms occur [21].

Group 1 - The current La Niña state in the equatorial central and eastern Pacific is expected to continue until early 2026, but the likelihood of it developing into a La Niña event is relatively low [2] - La Niña causes colder sea surface temperatures in the eastern Pacific and warmer temperatures in the western Pacific, impacting global climate anomalies [3] - The occurrence of La Niña events can lead to colder winter temperatures in central and eastern China due to enhanced winter monsoon winds [3] Group 2 - The winter climate trend in China is expected to be close to normal or slightly warmer, with significant fluctuations in temperature and overall reduced precipitation [4] - Northern regions may experience severe weather events such as strong winds, temperature drops, and heavy snowfall, which could impact agriculture and energy demand [4] - Southern regions may face risks of drought due to higher temperatures and lower precipitation, necessitating improved water resource management and fire prevention measures [4][5]

Core Viewpoint - The current La Niña phenomenon is expected to continue until early 2026, but the likelihood of it developing into a full La Niña event is relatively low, which may impact China's winter climate [2][3]. Group 1: La Niña Formation and Characteristics - La Niña is characterized by a significant and sustained cooling of sea surface temperatures in the equatorial central and eastern Pacific, defined by the NINO 3.4 index [2]. - The current La Niña state is ongoing, with monitoring indicating it will last less than five months, making the occurrence of a double La Niña event this winter unlikely [2][3]. Group 2: Impact on China's Climate - La Niña influences global climate, leading to colder temperatures in the eastern Pacific and warmer temperatures in the western Pacific, which can result in lower winter temperatures in central and eastern China [3]. - The phenomenon may also lead to reduced precipitation in southern China, increasing the risk of drought during the winter and spring [3]. Group 3: Preparedness Recommendations - The winter climate is expected to be close to normal or slightly warmer, with significant fluctuations, and overall precipitation is predicted to be lower, especially in the north [4]. - Northern regions should prepare for potential severe weather events, including strong winds and heavy snowfall, which could impact agriculture and energy demands [4]. - Areas in southeastern and central China may face risks of drought and should enhance water resource management and fire prevention measures due to higher forest fire risks [4].

| | | | '/ V SDIC FUTURES | | 2025年12月16日 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 操作评级 | | | 豆一 | ☆☆☆ | 杨蕊霞 农产品组长 | | | | F0285733 Z0011333 | | 豆粕 | ★☆☆ | 吴小明 首席分析师 | | 豆油 | ☆☆☆ | F3078401 Z0015853 | | 棕櫚油 | なな☆ | | | | | 董甜甜 高级分析师 | | 菜粕 | ★☆☆ | F0302203 Z0012037 | | 菜油 | ★☆☆ | 宋腾 高级分析师 | | 玉米 | ☆☆☆ | F03135787 Z0021166 | | 生猎 | な☆☆ | | | 鸡蛋 | ★☆☆ | 010-58747784 | | | | gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn | 【大豆&豆粕】 近期南美天气持续好转,拉尼娜影响暂时未显现。大连豆粕跟随美豆震荡偏强。国内方面,上周进口大豆和豆 箱库存均有所下降。大连豆粕期货价格呈现出近强运弱格局,近月合约延续进口大豆通关进度放缓逻辑，表现 相对更强。美豆期货价格已回落至 ...

昨日（15日）早晨，由于晴空辐射降温明显，广东全省超四成市县最低气温刷新下半年纪录，38个国家基本气象站测得下半年气温新低，其中韶关的仁化 最低仅1.2℃，广州低至6.8℃。 来源：大湾区之声 拉尼娜状态并不等于拉尼娜事件，根据国家标准，尼诺3.4指数需要连续5个月在零下0.5摄氏度以下，才会被认为是发生了一次拉尼娜事件。 所谓的"双重拉尼娜"，并非同一年中出现两次拉尼娜事件，而是指连续两年的冬季持续发生拉尼娜事件。 预计16-18日，广东的西部市县主要受冷高压后部的偏东气流影响，云量相对较多，间中有分散性零星小雨，其余市县以多云间晴天气为主，气温逐渐回 升。展望19-20日，南支槽过境，加上低层南风配合，广东将有一次降雨过程。 我国已进入拉尼娜状态 今年冬天会是冷冬吗？ 今年下半年以来，在多股冷空气的影响下，北方多地寒意提前上线，南方秋意也已拉满，同时国家气候中心监测显示，今年10月我国已经进入拉尼娜状 态，所以今年冬天会出现冷冬吗？ 拉尼娜为赤道太平洋东部和中部海表温度大范围持续异常变冷的现象。在太平洋中东部的赤道附近，当地渔民发现海水温度会周期性地异常变冷或变暖， 并影响着渔业兴旺与萧条，他们便将发生在 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Global crude oil supply and demand are becoming more relaxed, and the progress of the peace talks led by the US has increased concerns about the release of Russian oil supply, causing oil prices to drop to their lowest level this year [1] - Precious metals continued to be strong overnight. The loose trading continued after the Fed meeting, and gold is approaching its historical high. If it breaks through, the strong performance of precious metals is expected to continue [2] - The prices of various metals and commodities are affected by factors such as supply - demand relationships, policy changes, and cost factors, showing different trends of rise, fall, or shock [3][4][5] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Energy Commodities - **Crude Oil**: EU sanctions on Russia and US sanctions on Venezuela have affected the global oil market. Under the background of loose supply and demand, the potential release of Russian oil supply after the peace talks has put pressure on oil prices [1] - **Natural Gas**: No relevant content provided. - **Coal**: No relevant content provided. - **Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG)**: No relevant content provided. - **Carbon Emission Rights**: No relevant content provided. Metals - **Precious Metals**: Gold is approaching its historical high, and platinum and palladium are at high levels. The relatively low - valued platinum and palladium are favored by long - position funds. The long - term allocation rhythm is clear [2] - **Base Metals** - **Copper**: Overnight, LME copper rose and then gave back some gains. The high position volume in the Shanghai copper market suggests that long - position investors should temporarily reduce their positions and wait and see [3] - **Aluminum**: The medium - term upward trend of Shanghai aluminum remains unchanged. Long - position investors can hold their positions based on certain support levels and leave the market if they break [4] - **Zinc**: The LME's position limit plan is expected to end the soft squeeze on the outer market. The internal and external price difference is likely to converge, and it is a good time for cross - market reverse arbitrage. Shanghai zinc is in a short - term rebound [7] Chemicals - **Synthetic Materials** - **Polyethylene (PE)**: The supply of polyethylene is expected to increase, and the demand is weak, with low downstream inventory - building enthusiasm [25] - **Polypropylene (PP)**: The production of polypropylene is expected to increase slightly, and the short - term demand is weak [25] - **Basic Chemicals** - **Methanol**: The methanol market is in a narrow - range fluctuation. The supply - demand situation is difficult to improve significantly in the short term, and it is expected to be weak [22] - **Urea**: The supply - demand pattern of urea remains loose, and the price is expected to fluctuate within a range [21] Agricultural Products - **Grains and Oils** - **Soybeans and Soybean Meal**: The weather in South America has improved, and the US soybean data has not been adjusted. The domestic soybean and soybean meal inventories have decreased. The strategy is to wait for the weather changes in South America and go long on the main contract at low prices [33] - **Palm Oil**: The palm oil market is facing high - inventory pressure and is expected to be neutral or weak in the short term [34] - **Livestock and Poultry Products** - **Pigs**: The supply of pigs is still abundant, and the price is expected to be weak in the short term. The medium - to - long - term price may have a second bottom [38] - **Eggs**: The egg futures price of the 01 contract is leading the market, but the price is still in the previous range. The far - month contract needs to pay attention to chick replenishment and old - hen culling [39] - **Cash Crops** - **Cotton**: The Zhengzhou cotton price has risen significantly. There are rumors that the planting area in Xinjiang will decrease next year. The sales progress is fast, and the demand is stable. The industry can consider hedging opportunities [40] - **Sugar**: The international sugar market supply is sufficient, and the US sugar faces pressure. The production progress in Guangxi is slow, but the production forecast for the 25/26 season is good [41] Others - **Shipping**: The SCFIS European route index has been released, and the 12 - contract is expected to fluctuate. The spot price is expected to rise, but there are risks such as additional supply pressure. The far - month 04 contract is recommended to be shorted on rallies [19] - **Financial Futures** - **Stock Index Futures**: The A - share market and stock index futures fell yesterday. The market is expected to be in a volatile and slightly upward pattern in the short term, depending on the implementation of domestic economic policies [45] - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The bond market is in a warm - up and volatile state. In the short term, it is difficult to break through the volatile adjustment pattern, and attention should be paid to the previous interest rate high points [46]

| | | | SDIC FUTURES | | | | --- | --- | --- | | | 操作评级 | 2025年12月15日 | | | | 杨蕊霞 农产品组长 | | 息一 | な女女 | F0285733 Z0011333 | | 豆粕 | ★☆☆ | 吴小明 首席分析师 | | 豆油 | な☆☆ | | | 棕櫚油 | な女女 | F3078401 Z0015853 | | | | 董甜甜 高级分析师 | | 薬粕 | ★☆☆ | | | 菜油 | ★☆☆ | F0302203 Z0012037 | | | | 宋腾 高级分析师 | | 玉米 | ななな | | | | | F03135787 Z0021166 | | 生猪 | な女女 | | | 鸡蛋 | ★☆☆ | 010-58747784 | | | | gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn | 【豆一】 国产大豆表现为震荡偏强,现货价格坚挺,国产大豆新作供应端收紧,市场也存在惜售情绪,对大豆价格一直 是存在支撑的。政策端本周仍然在进行购销双向竞价交易,进口大豆方面也在进行拍卖。短期持续关注政策和 现货端的表现。 ...