英国央行行长贝利：收益率曲线陡峭也反映了财政政策的不确定性。 ...

Core Viewpoint - Deutsche Bank's interest rate and credit research head, Christoph Rieger, expresses confidence in their bond yield forecasts, indicating limited downward potential for yields in the long term [1] Group 1: Bond Yield Predictions - Deutsche Bank expects a slight decline in the yields of the US 10-year Treasury and German long-term bonds by the end of Q3 [1] - The anticipated decline is based on the expectation that both the European Central Bank and the Federal Reserve will lower interest rates in September, a factor not yet fully reflected in long-term rates [1] Group 2: Market Dynamics - Rieger notes that additional rate cuts by the Federal Reserve are expected to be fully absorbed by the yield curve, resulting in limited impact on long-term yields [1]

Group 1 - International gold is currently trading around $3340.39 per ounce, with a slight increase of 0.04% and a trading range between $3334.99 and $3343.90 [1] - The short-term outlook for international gold appears to be a sideways trend, with key resistance at $3375 [3] Group 2 - Pacific Investment Management Company (Pimco) is aware that potential actions by Trump could lead to significant volatility in the U.S. Treasury market but has not adjusted its positions [2] - Following reports of Trump's possible attempt to dismiss Powell, U.S. stock markets and long-term bond prices experienced a decline, but the market rebounded quickly after Trump denied the reports [2] - Pimco cautioned that Trump's pressure on the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates could encourage other investors to sell bonds, which would contradict Trump's objectives [2]

"很难确定波动幅度，但我猜测会很大——30年期美国国债收益率的涨幅可能以'百分点'计，而非'基 点'。" 上周公布的美联储6月17-18日会议纪要显示，多数政策制定者仍担忧特朗普进口关税可能引发通胀风 险，因此对7月29-30日会议降息的支持寥寥。 随着美国总统特朗普再次呼吁美联储主席鲍威尔辞职，投资者开始保护投资组合以应对通胀上升风险， 这是因为如果美联储更倾向于降息，可能推高物价，并使贷款机构为持有债券获得更高的补偿。 尽管短期来看，对降息更友好的美联储主席可能对股市产生复杂影响，但这最终将导致美元走弱、美国 国债市场波动率上升以及长期利率走高，意味着抵押贷款和公司债券的借贷成本将更加高昂。 自1月重返白宫以来，特朗普多次抨击鲍威尔领导下的美联储迟迟不愿降息，引发外界担忧他意图将美 联储置于自己的掌控之下。 就连摩根大通首席执行官杰米·戴蒙（Jamie Dimon）也在周二警告此举可能产生意外后果，称美联储的 独立性是神圣不可侵犯的。 部分分析师表示，若市场认为美联储独立性正在削弱，金融资产的波动可能会加剧。其中一个主要风险 是，投资者可能抛售美国国债，导致美国长期债券收益率相对于短期债券收益率上升。 " ...

Group 1 - The Bank of England's Governor Bailey emphasized the importance of closely monitoring the steepening of the yield curve during the quantitative tightening process [1]

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. non-farm employment data for June exceeded market expectations, indicating a robust labor market, which may influence the Federal Reserve's future policy decisions [1][4][12]. Group 1: Employment Data - In June, the U.S. added 147,000 non-farm jobs, surpassing the market expectation of 106,000 [1]. - The unemployment rate unexpectedly decreased to 4.1%, against the expected 4.3% [1][4]. - The labor participation rate fell to 62.3%, slightly below the expected 62.4% [1]. - Average hourly earnings increased by 3.7% year-on-year, slightly below the expected 3.8% [1]. Group 2: Labor Market Dynamics - The labor market is showing signs of a mild cooling trend, with private sector job growth slowing significantly to 74,000 in June, down from 134,000 in May [8]. - The government sector saw an unexpected increase of 73,000 jobs, influenced by seasonal factors, particularly in state and local government employment [8][10]. - Wage growth is also slowing, with average hourly earnings growth down to 3.7% year-on-year, indicating a potential softening of persistent inflation [8][12]. Group 3: Federal Reserve Policy Implications - The divergence in views among Federal Reserve officials (doves vs. hawks) may lead to varied interpretations of the employment data, impacting future interest rate decisions [1][12]. - The neutral interest rate is estimated to have reached 3.5%, with the ongoing debate primarily affecting the timing of reaching this neutral rate rather than its overall shape [1][12]. Group 4: Investment Strategy - The recommendation is to buy U.S. Treasuries on dips and short the U.S. dollar on rallies, as the market reacts to the strong employment data [2][13][14]. - The U.S. Treasury yield curve has flattened, with significant increases in yields across various maturities, indicating a shift in market expectations [13]. - The dollar index has shown a slight increase, but the long-term trend remains downward, influenced by various economic factors [14].

Group 1 - The outcome of trade negotiations is a key driver for the Eurozone interest rate market [1] - There is a reasonable expectation for at least one more interest rate cut in the Eurozone based on economic growth and inflation risk outlook [1] - The 10-year German government bond yield is expected to remain in the range of 2.40%-2.80% by the end of the year [1] Group 2 - The yield curve is anticipated to steepen further, indicating an expansion of the spread between short-term and long-term bonds [1]

日本央行审议委员高田创：超长期日本国债的风险溢价上升往往会导致市场功能恶化，波动性会蔓延到 整个收益率曲线。 ...

Core Viewpoint - In the first half of the year, government bond yields experienced a rise and subsequent decline, influenced by monetary policy adjustments and market conditions [1] Market Performance - In Q1, the bond market faced a correction due to three main factors: market adjustments to the "moderately loose" monetary policy expectations, tight funding conditions due to restrained monetary operations, and better-than-expected fundamental data from January to February [1] - By the end of June, the yields for 2-year, 5-year, 10-year, and 30-year government bonds were 1.36%, 1.51%, 1.65%, and 1.85% respectively, showing changes of 22.35 basis points, 9.13 basis points, -2.90 basis points, and -6.25 basis points compared to December 31 [1] Policy Dynamics - The first half of the year saw the implementation of interest rate cuts and reserve requirement ratio reductions. On May 8, the 7-day reverse repurchase rate was lowered by 10 basis points to 1.4%, leading to a corresponding 10 basis point drop in the Loan Prime Rate (LPR) [1] - On May 15, the reserve requirement ratio was reduced by 0.5 percentage points, releasing approximately 1 trillion yuan in long-term liquidity, with the average reserve requirement ratio for financial institutions dropping from 6.6% to 6.2% [1] Bond Supply and Demand - As of June 27, the issuance of special bonds accelerated, with a total of 20,973 billion yuan in new special bonds issued, achieving 47% of the issuance target [1] - The refinancing of special replacement bonds reached a cumulative issuance of 18,031 billion yuan, with a progress rate of 90% [1] - The net issuance of government bonds was 33,802 billion yuan, with a progress rate of 50.7%, including the early issuance of 1.3 trillion yuan in ultra-long special government bonds compared to the previous year [1] Strategy Outlook - The current funding conditions are loose, with the overnight DR dropping below the policy rate to 1.4%, but the bond market lacks strong upward momentum [1] - In the absence of further interest rate cuts, the bond market is expected to remain in a volatile pattern, with an optimistic forecast for the 10-year government bond yield's low point at 1.50% [1] - If interest rates are cut by 10-20 basis points, the low point could potentially drop to 1.3% - 1.4% [1]

Interest Rate Outlook - The odds of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates in July are approximately 20%, increasing to around 68% in September, and analysts predict a 50% chance of a 50 basis points reduction by October [1] Market Reaction - Investors are positioning themselves ahead of potential rate cuts, leading to increased stock purchases, particularly in finance stocks due to the expected bullish impact on the broader market [2] Yield Curve Dynamics - A Federal Reserve rate cut would lower short-term borrowing rates while longer-term rates may remain stable or rise, resulting in a steepening yield curve, which is favorable for banks benefiting from an expanded net interest margin (NIM) [3] Fifth Third Bancorp - Fifth Third Bancorp has seen its NIM expand for five consecutive quarters, attributed to a diversified loan portfolio with a 3% increase in average loans sequentially and year-over-year [4] - The bank's CET1 capital ratio stands at approximately 10.5%, significantly above the 7.7% requirement, and it plans to buy back up to 100 million shares, contributing to a positive outlook [6] - Analysts project a consensus price target of $47.53 for Fifth Third Bancorp, indicating a potential 17.4% increase [6] Comerica - Comerica is highly sensitive to interest rate changes, with earnings expected to rise as loan yields increase faster than deposit costs, although muted loan activity has led to a year-over-year decline in EPS [8] - The bank anticipates improved loan activity in the second half of the year, despite projecting a 1% to 2% decrease in average loans for the full year 2025 [9] - Analysts forecast a 9% growth in EPS for Comerica this year, with a consensus price target of $61.95, representing a 7.3% gain [10] Citizens Financial Group - Citizens Financial Group has shifted its balance sheet towards higher-yielding commercial loans, which is expected to enhance earnings growth as rate pressures ease [11] - The bank's CET1 ratio is 10.6%, and analysts project a 27% growth in EPS over the next 12 months, suggesting the stock may be undervalued [12] - The consensus price target for Citizens Financial Group is $47.89, with a current dividend yield of 3.93% [13]