Core Viewpoint - The Chinese government is implementing a series of proactive macroeconomic policies to stabilize the market and expectations, with a focus on introducing new policy financial tools to address structural issues in various sectors [1][2]. Group 1: Financial Policy Measures - Since the Central Political Bureau meeting on April 25, a package of financial policies has been rapidly released to support market stability and expectations, including interest rate cuts and new structural monetary policy tools [1][2]. - The effectiveness of these policies is being observed, but experts suggest that new policy financial tools are still necessary to address ongoing structural contradictions in certain areas [1][2]. Group 2: New Policy Financial Tools - The new policy financial tools are expected to provide targeted support for key areas such as foreign trade, technological innovation, and consumption [2][3]. - In 2022, three policy financial institutions created and deployed approximately 740 billion yuan in policy and developmental financial tools, leading to a total credit limit of over 3.5 trillion yuan for supported projects [1]. Group 3: Support for Foreign Trade and Investment - Experts anticipate that new policy financial tools may include mechanisms similar to export buyer credit to support foreign trade enterprises and mitigate external demand fluctuations [3]. - The National Development and Reform Commission has indicated that these new tools will address capital shortages for project construction, potentially reviving and optimizing existing policy financial tools [3]. Group 4: Role of PSL and Fiscal Support - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) is expected to restart and expand the Pledged Supplementary Lending (PSL) program to provide long-term low-cost funding to policy banks [4][5]. - Fiscal support, such as interest subsidies, is deemed crucial for the effectiveness of new policy financial tools, as seen in previous initiatives where the central government provided significant interest subsidies to reduce project funding costs [4][5].

Core Viewpoint - The Ministry of Finance has demonstrated its capability to introduce incremental policies in response to changing circumstances, particularly through tax incentives to encourage foreign investment in China [1][2]. Group 1: Fiscal Policy and Bond Issuance - The Minister of Finance, Lan Fang'an, emphasized the importance of issuing and utilizing ultra-long-term special bonds and special bonds as part of the 2024 central budget report, indicating strong support for stabilizing growth initiatives [1]. - The issuance schedule for ultra-long-term special bonds has been adjusted, with four bonds being issued earlier than planned, reflecting the central government's commitment to enhancing domestic demand and stabilizing growth [1]. - The issuance of special bonds reached a record high in June, indicating a shift in focus from debt replacement to expanding domestic demand and stabilizing growth in the second half of the year [1]. Group 2: Future Bond Issuance and Policy Tools - There remains over 2 trillion yuan in special bond quotas and 745 billion yuan in ultra-long-term special bond quotas available for issuance in the second half of the year, with expectations for concentrated issuance in the third quarter [2]. - The establishment of new policy financial tools by the National Development and Reform Commission is in preparation, which is expected to further support project construction and boost infrastructure investment in conjunction with special bonds [2]. - The Ministry of Finance's recent tax incentives for foreign investment indicate a proactive approach to policy adjustments, with expectations for more robust fiscal measures to be introduced to stabilize employment, enterprises, markets, and expectations [2].

Group 1 - The Ministry of Finance emphasizes the importance of early issuance and utilization of ultra-long-term special government bonds and special bonds to support economic growth initiatives [1] - The issuance schedule for four ultra-long-term special government bonds has been advanced by 7 to 14 days, indicating a proactive approach to boost local consumption through the "old-for-new" policy [1] - Since June, the issuance pace of special bonds and ultra-long-term special government bonds has accelerated, with special bond issuance reaching a record high for the year [1] Group 2 - There remains over 2 trillion yuan in special bond quotas and 745 billion yuan in ultra-long-term special government bond quotas available for issuance in the second half of the year [2] - The establishment of new policy financial tools by the National Development and Reform Commission is in preparation, which is expected to further support project construction and boost infrastructure investment [2] - The Ministry of Finance is capable of introducing timely incremental policies in response to changing circumstances, with expectations for more robust fiscal measures to stabilize employment, enterprises, markets, and expectations [2]

Core Viewpoint - The logistics industry in China shows signs of recovery with an increase in the logistics prosperity index to 50.8% in June 2025, indicating a slight month-on-month improvement despite challenges posed by extreme weather conditions and operational pressures [1] Logistics Business Volume and Service Prices - In June, the business volume index and logistics service price index increased by 0.2 and 0.3 percentage points respectively, with the business volume index remaining in the expansion zone for four consecutive months [2] - The recovery in business volume is attributed to improved demand in the eastern region and a reduction in external shocks to the supply chain [2] - The central and western regions outperformed the national average with business volume indices of 51% and 52.8%, while the eastern region's index was below the national level but showed a significant month-on-month increase [2] - Various sectors, including road transport, rail transport, air transport, and express delivery, reported business volume indices in the prosperity zone, driven by online shopping and seasonal demand for fresh produce [2] Service Prices and Profitability Challenges - Service prices in several sectors, including rail, road, water, air transport, and express delivery, saw increases of 0.2 to 0.4 percentage points [3] - Despite the rise in service prices, the industry faces ongoing competitive pressures and operational challenges, leading to sustained pressure on profitability and cash flow [3] - The main business cost index rose by 0.3 percentage points in June, with indices for rail, air transport, and express delivery exceeding 55% [3] - The cash turnover rate index fell by 0.4 percentage points to 50.5%, and the main business profit index decreased for the second consecutive month [3] Logistics Investment Trends - Logistics infrastructure investment showed stable growth, with the fixed asset investment completion index rising by 0.3 percentage points in June [4] - All sectors, except warehousing, maintained a recovery trend, with key projects in transportation logistics hubs progressing smoothly [4] - The business activity expectation index remained above 55% for four consecutive months, indicating positive market expectations [4] Policy and Financial Support - New policy financial tools are being developed to support various sectors, including traditional infrastructure, technology innovation, consumption, and foreign trade [5] - The support for foreign trade may include funding for export-oriented enterprises, cross-border e-commerce platforms, and related logistics infrastructure [5] - These financial tools are expected to provide sustained momentum for high-quality economic development [5]

| | | | | 申银万国期货研究所 唐广华（从业资格号：F3010997；交易咨询号：Z0011162） | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | tanggh@sywgqh.com.cn 021-50586292 | | | | | | | | | TS2509 | TS2512 | TF2509 | TF2512 | T2509 | T2512 | TL2509 | TL2512 | | | 昨日收盘价 前日收盘价 | 102.488 102.498 | 102.632 102.638 | 106.205 106.160 | 106.295 106.255 | 109.005 108.895 | 109.040 108.930 | 120.74 120.42 | 120.6 120.29 | | | 涨跌 | -0.010 | -0.006 | 0.045 | 0.040 | 0.110 | 0.110 | 0.320 | 0.310 | | | 涨跌幅 | -0.01% | ...

Group 1: Domestic News - Xi Jinping emphasized the need to deepen the construction of a unified national market and promote high-quality development of the marine economy during the sixth meeting of the Central Financial Committee [2] - The Caixin China Manufacturing PMI for June rose to 50.4, indicating a return to the expansion zone, with new orders and production indices also showing improvement [2] Group 2: Bond Market Dynamics - The total scale of bond ETFs reached 383.98 billion yuan, with a net inflow of 175.78 billion yuan in the first half of the year, making it the most net inflow ETF category [3] - Chinese banks, particularly small and medium-sized ones, have been increasing bond investments, with the balance of bond investments for small and medium-sized banks rising to 46.41 trillion yuan, an increase of 3.6 trillion yuan since last year [3] Group 3: Policy Developments - New policy financial tools are being proposed to support technological innovation, expand consumption, and stabilize foreign trade, with a potential funding amount of 500 billion yuan [4] - The public REITs registration and settlement business guidelines have been officially implemented, aiming to optimize the business rules for public infrastructure securities investment funds [4] Group 4: International News - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell did not rule out the possibility of interest rate cuts in July, indicating that stable economic activity allows for further analysis of the impact of tariffs on prices and economic growth [5] - The US ISM Manufacturing PMI for June was reported at 49, indicating contraction for the fourth consecutive month, with significant declines in new orders and employment indices [6] Group 5: Commodity Market - International crude oil futures prices increased, with WTI crude oil for August rising by 0.52% to $65.45 per barrel, while natural gas prices continued to decline [7] Group 6: Financial Market Operations - The central bank conducted a 1.31 trillion yuan reverse repurchase operation at a rate of 1.40%, resulting in a net withdrawal of 275.5 billion yuan on that day [8][9] - Major repo rates fell significantly, with DR001 down 14.29 basis points to 1.367% and DR007 down 37.02 basis points to 1.546% [9] Group 7: Credit Market - The secondary market saw significant price deviations for certain industrial bonds, with "H1碧地03" dropping over 80% and "H1阳城01" increasing over 150% [11] - Several companies, including Evergrande and Zhengrong Real Estate, announced debt restructuring plans and financing updates amid ongoing financial challenges [12][13] Group 8: Convertible Bonds - The convertible bond market indices collectively rose, with the market transaction volume reaching 64.58 billion yuan, an increase of 6.32 billion yuan from the previous trading day [17] - Several convertible bonds are approaching early redemption conditions, indicating potential changes in investor sentiment [19]

Group 1 - The bond market continued to show strength on July 1, with most government bond futures closing higher and interbank bond yields slightly declining, indicating a generally favorable environment for bonds in the second half of the year [1][2] - The People's Bank of China conducted a 7-day reverse repurchase operation of 131 billion yuan at a rate of 1.40%, resulting in a net withdrawal of 275.5 billion yuan for the day, reflecting a significant drop in funding rates at the beginning of the month [5][1] - The issuance of special government bonds is expected to be completed in July, with an estimated issuance scale of around 2 trillion yuan, leading to a net financing scale of approximately 900 billion yuan, which is relatively low for the year [6][1] Group 2 - In the North American market, U.S. Treasury yields fell across the board, with the 2-year yield down by 2.87 basis points to 3.717%, indicating a trend of declining yields [3] - The Asian market saw mixed results, with Japanese 10-year bond yields decreasing by 0.7 basis points to 1.426%, while shorter-term yields increased slightly [3] - In the Eurozone, 10-year bond yields for France, Germany, Italy, and Spain all increased, reflecting a divergence in bond market trends across regions [3] Group 3 - The China Securities Index for convertible bonds rose by 0.48%, with significant trading volume of 62.777 billion yuan, indicating a positive sentiment in the convertible bond market [2] - The issuance of Panda bonds has significantly increased since the end of 2022, with total issuance surpassing 1 trillion yuan, although foreign investment in these bonds remains limited [7] - The PMI data has shown signs of recovery, but the overall demand outlook remains weak, suggesting that while the fundamentals are supportive for the bond market, caution is warranted due to potential volatility [7]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a cautious outlook on the industry, with expectations of GDP growth slowing to 4.5% in the third quarter of 2025, following a strong second quarter performance [3][13]. Core Insights - The second quarter showed robust growth, but June data revealed emerging concerns, particularly in retail and export sectors, indicating a potential softening of economic momentum [3][4]. - The real estate market continues to struggle, with declining transaction volumes and increased fiscal pressure on local governments, necessitating potential policy adjustments [5][12]. - Consumer spending is being supported through financial measures, with a focus on enhancing service supply to stimulate demand [10][11]. Summary by Sections Economic Performance - The second quarter GDP growth is projected to reach 5%, but a decline to 4.5% is anticipated in the third quarter due to weakening exports and a sluggish real estate market [3][13]. - Retail sales showed strong performance in early June, driven by promotional activities, but this may not be sustainable as consumer sentiment weakens [4][10]. Export and Trade - Exports to the U.S. saw a rebound in June, likely due to seasonal demand for the holiday shopping season, but overall export performance remains weak [4][18]. - Container throughput at major ports in China has significantly slowed, indicating a broader decline in trade activity [4][14]. Real Estate Market - The real estate sector remains under pressure, with transaction volumes continuing to decline and fiscal revenues falling short of budget targets [5][22]. - Local governments face increasing fiscal challenges, prompting discussions on expanding budgetary flexibility and potential new financing tools [5][12]. Consumer Spending and Policy Measures - The government is implementing measures to support consumer spending, including financial backing for service consumption and infrastructure development [10][11]. - Structural reforms are necessary for a more balanced economic recovery, focusing on social welfare and tax reforms [11][12].

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes that a more proactive fiscal policy is expected to be implemented in the second half of the year, focusing on increasing spending intensity and accelerating expenditure progress to boost domestic demand [1] Fiscal Policy Developments - Since the beginning of the year, the fiscal policy has been more aggressive, with increased spending and a focus on areas that benefit people's livelihoods, promote consumption, and enhance economic resilience [1] - Experts predict that the fiscal policy will expedite the implementation of existing policies, particularly through the early issuance and utilization of ultra-long special government bonds and local government special bonds [1] Potential Future Measures - There is a possibility that new incremental reserve policies will be introduced to further stimulate domestic demand, which may include the issuance of additional ultra-long special government bonds and the establishment of new policy financial instruments [1]

Core Viewpoint - The National Development and Reform Commission emphasizes the need to enhance effective investment and implement "two heavy" constructions, focusing on both "hard investment" and "soft construction" to improve project execution and investment efficiency [1] Group 1: Investment Strategy - The commission plans to optimize the direction of central budget investments and expedite the issuance of central budget investment plans [1] - There will be a management system for local government special bonds, including a "negative list" for investment directions and a "positive list" for project capital contributions [1] - The establishment of new policy-based financial tools aims to address the issues of insufficient project construction capital and matching funds [1] Group 2: Encouraging Private Investment - The initiative includes support and encouragement for the development of private investment [1] - There will be efforts to promote high-quality projects to private capital [1] - The implementation of a new mechanism for public-private partnerships (PPP) will be standardized [1]