Group 1 - The financial sector has shown strong performance recently, with the Wind banking industry index reaching a historical high of 7072.61 points as of May 15, contributing to a positive market sentiment [1][2] - The A-share Wind non-bank financial sector has seen an increase of nearly 4% this week, while the Wind banking sector rose by 2.1% [2] - Several financial stocks, including China Pacific Insurance and Hongta Securities, hit the daily limit, and multiple bank stocks reached historical highs [2] Group 2 - Analysts believe that the recent rally in banks, insurance, and securities is driven by three main factors: the continuous decline in risk-free interest rates, ongoing regulatory reforms, and increased insurance capital investments [3] - The public fund reform is expected to lead to a significant inflow of funds into the banking and non-bank financial sectors, as current allocations are below benchmark indices [4] - The anticipated influx of capital is supported by the recent approval of 600 billion yuan for long-term insurance investments and adjustments in risk factors for stock investments [4] Group 3 - The stable growth orientation and continued fiscal policy support are expected to improve the banking operating environment, further supporting the sector's fundamentals [4] - The recent capital increases by major state-owned banks, exceeding 500 billion yuan, signal stability in the financial system and may enhance investor confidence [4]

高景气度下券商板块盈利能力与估值存在预期差 20240514 摘要 • 券商板块 EQ25 业绩虽受费用率影响，仍保持 55%正增长，主要驱动力来 自手续费收入，占比达 29%，受益于市场回暖及经纪业务高增长，自营业 务贡献显著提升至 43%，成为业绩增长关键。 • 公募基金高质量发展行动方案强化业绩基准约束，促使基金补配沪深 300 欠配行业，其中证券板块欠配 6.3%，东财和中信证券欠配程度最高，推 动非金融板块近期上涨。 • 广发证券被推荐基于其估值低估、基本面拐点，投行业务监管恢复有望兑 现业绩；资管特色明显，参控股易方达 ETF 排名行业第二，业绩贡献显著； 财富管理先发优势，与易方达、广发基金成立线下投顾学院。 • 券商未来发展关注业绩弹性与并购重组两条主线，同时国际业务对头部券 商业绩贡献日益显著，尤其关注港股 IPO 反弹带来的机遇，以及在国际业 务方面已具品牌优势的大型券商。 • 2025 年第二季度券商板块各项指标亮眼，同比增长 83%，环比增长 19%，自 2024 年第一季度起逐季改善，自营和经纪业务是推动业绩高增 的主要因素。 Q&A 今年券商板块的业绩增速情况如何？ 今年券商板块的 ...

高弹性+显著低配，关注非银板块的估值修复机会 20250514 摘要 • 非银金融板块配置比例有望提升，主动权益基金相对欠配约 9.68%，存在 约 1,300 亿人民币增配空间，但内部个股表现分化，中国平安等权重股存 在显著欠配。 • 公募基金新规对市场风格切换的影响是中长期性的，短期市场波动不改变 整体配置比例，长期将引导投资者重新评估并调整资产配置。 • 非银金融行业基本面强劲，券商一季度业绩同比增长 86%，环比增长近 20%，保险公司如新华保险、中国人寿、中国人保等也显示出良好增长势 头。 • 非银金融行业估值修复空间较大，券商指数估值中枢低于历史平均水平， 新规有望降低市场波动性，提高盈利稳定性，提升头部机构估值水平。 • 新规将降低权益市场波动率，提升券商和保险公司盈利稳定性，促使欠配 逐步回补，提高整体盈利稳定性，并推动相关公司估值上升。 • 头部公司市场份额预计提升，券商欠配比例高于保险，投资者对券商盈利 稳定性存在担忧，未来非银金融机构可能增配券商和保险。 • 推荐关注中信证券、广发证券和中国银河证券。中信证券作为龙头券商， 广发证券基本面显著改善且估值较低，中国银河证券资产配置前瞻性及零 ...

Core Insights - The leading Chinese securities firms are accelerating their strategic layout for Hong Kong IPOs, supported by coordinated domestic and foreign policies [1] - The performance of the brokerage industry is expected to significantly recover in 2024, driven by favorable policies, increasing proprietary income, and a low base effect from 2023 [1] - In 2025, continued market recovery is anticipated, with increases in stock trading volume, financing balance, and equity fund issuance, which will further boost wealth management income for brokerages [1] Industry Summary - Major brokerages are expected to see a substantial year-on-year increase in net profit in Q1 2025, with a 92% rise in net profit attributable to shareholders and a 51% increase in net profit excluding non-recurring items [1] - Three main trends are highlighted: 1. Continued expansion of total assets driven by financial investment scale, though there is a divergence in leverage ratios [1] 2. Growth in investment contributions, with major brokerages experiencing a general increase in investment-related income, indicating strong elasticity [1] 3. Recovery of light capital businesses, with a 71% year-on-year increase in average daily stock fund transaction volume and improvements in brokerage net income and investment banking net income [1] Future Outlook - The political bureau's meeting has set the tone for a stable and active capital market, with expectations for continued supportive policies for the capital market [1] - Attention is drawn to leading brokerages with strong balance sheet management and stable performance growth, as well as structural opportunities related to mergers and acquisitions [1] Related Companies - Companies with significant AH price differences include China International Capital Corporation (03908), CITIC Securities (06030), Everbright Securities (06178), CITIC Jiantou Securities (06066), Hongye Futures (03678), and GF Securities (01776) [2]

Core Viewpoint - The white liquor sector is expected to experience increased differentiation, with companies facing challenges in maintaining performance growth while ensuring healthy distribution channels. The overall financial performance of the sector is anticipated to remain under pressure in 2025, with solid companies likely to achieve stable growth, while weaker companies may continue to decline [1][2]. Group 1: Market Performance - As of May 13, 2025, the CSI Major Consumer Index (000932) rose by 0.05%, with key stocks such as Proya (603605) increasing by 2.69% and XinNuoWei (300765) by 1.96% [1]. - The Major Consumer ETF (159672) increased by 0.13%, with a latest price of 0.78 yuan and a turnover rate of 4% during the trading session, amounting to 3.36 million yuan [1]. - Over the past year, the average daily trading volume of the Major Consumer ETF was 5.69 million yuan [1]. Group 2: White Liquor Sector Insights - The white liquor industry is expected to show resilience over the long term, benefiting from economic recovery and increased consumption due to stimulus policies [2]. - The differentiation within the white liquor sector is projected to intensify, with companies needing to navigate performance challenges while maintaining healthy distribution channels [1][2]. Group 3: ETF Performance Metrics - The Major Consumer ETF has seen a significant growth of 1.56 million yuan in scale over the past two weeks, ranking in the top fifth among comparable funds [2]. - Since its inception, the Major Consumer ETF has recorded a highest single-month return of 24.35% and an average monthly return of 5.36% [2]. - As of May 12, 2025, the ETF's maximum drawdown this year was 5.57%, with a relative benchmark drawdown of 0.34% [3]. Group 4: Fee Structure and Tracking Accuracy - The management fee for the Major Consumer ETF is 0.50%, and the custody fee is 0.10%, which are among the lowest in comparable funds [4]. - The tracking error for the Major Consumer ETF over the past month was 0.014%, indicating the highest tracking precision among comparable funds [5]. Group 5: Valuation and Top Holdings - The latest price-to-earnings ratio (PE-TTM) for the CSI Major Consumer Index is 20.15, which is at a historical low, being below 89.64% of the time over the past year [5]. - As of April 30, 2025, the top ten weighted stocks in the CSI Major Consumer Index accounted for 67.16% of the index, including major players like Yili (600887) and Kweichow Moutai (600519) [5].

Core Viewpoint - The banking sector is experiencing a resurgence, with significant stock price increases among major banks, indicating a positive market sentiment and expectations for valuation recovery [1][2]. Group 1: Market Performance - As of May 13, the China Securities Bank ETF (512730.SH) rose by 1.11%, and its associated index, the China Securities Bank Index (399986.SZ), increased by 1.12% [1]. - Major constituent stocks such as China Merchants Bank, Shanghai Pudong Development Bank, Agricultural Bank of China, Industrial and Commercial Bank of China, and Jiangsu Bank saw price increases ranging from 1.12% to 2.56% [1]. - Notably, Shanghai Pudong Development Bank and Jiangsu Bank reached historical highs, while Chongqing Bank and Citic Bank achieved new highs for the year [1]. Group 2: Analyst Insights - According to a recent report by Open Source Securities, the reform of public funds highlights the investment value of the banking sector, maintaining a "positive" rating for the industry [1]. - The report suggests that the coordinated development of deposits and loans, along with a balance in "volume and price," will enhance the fundamentals of banks [1]. - Huaxi Securities noted that the current valuation of the banking sector is at a historical low, prompting some institutional investors to increase their allocation to high-dividend banking stocks [1].

当地时间5月10日下午，印巴停火协议正式生效，冲突期间巴基斯坦空军战果丰硕。据悉，巴基斯坦为 我国主要武器装备出口国。此外，5月11日，人民日报刊文《加快解放和发展新质战斗力》。 智通财经APP获悉，华泰证券指出，军工上游信息化、新材料等上游领域的部分标的在需求、订单甚至 业绩层面已出现明显好转迹象，或表明军工板块基本面已进入反弹阶段。我们维持"一主两率"投资框 架，建议关注信息化、新材料、航空发动机、新质新域方向。 开源证券此前发布研报称，全球军事力量再平衡将给资本市场带来更多的不确定性，资产的"地缘风险 溢价"或导致军工股避险属性的估值重估。华福证券则表示，再次强调军工具备超强内贸属性，且国际 形势对我国军工强实力的验证或为军贸奠定长逻辑基础，25-27年在多重催化下内需外需均增长幅度巨 大，发展军工或为未来重中之重。 军工板块相关港股： 中信证券研报称，自4月下旬克什米尔枪击事件发生以来，印巴边境局势持续升温。 回顾历史，双方关于克什米尔的领土争端由来已久，冲突时有发生，但通常能较快平息。 着眼当下，印巴虽展现强硬姿态，但或均无意扩大冲突，其他国家也积极呼吁双方保持克制。 展望后续，短期内，印巴紧张态势 ...

医药｜盈利能力改善，优选创新龙头 20250509 摘要 • 2024 年生物制药板块收入企稳回升，但利润承压；化学制剂板块降本增 效显著，剔除不可比公司后 A 股营收同比增长 5%，扣非净利润增长 24%，主要受益于创新品种放量和 BD 里程碑收入。 • 创新药企业进入高速发展收获期，样本医院数据显示收入同比增速达 60%，2019-2024 年药品注册证书数量显著增加，头部企业运营效率提 升，Biotech 公司业绩加速放量，规模效应显现，盈利能力改善。 • 2025 年一季度，医药基金及非医药基金对化学制剂及其他生物制剂重仓 显著增加，创新药公司受关注度提升，医药板块整体估值虽有修复，但仍 处于近几年底部，存在投资机会。 • 2025 年一季度，甘李药业胰岛素产品提价，净利润同比增长 100%，通 化东宝降价，净利润下滑 49%，主要受新一轮胰岛素集采续约影响，国产 胰岛素企业报价积极。 • 2025 年一季度，荣昌生物、君实等创新药及生物制剂公司亏损收窄，核 心产品上市加速盈利能力提升，预计未来三年内将呈现良好发展趋势。 Q&A 2024 年和 2025 年一季度医药板块的整体盈利情况如何？ 根据 2 ...

煤炭 优于大市（维持） 证券分析师 翟堃 资格编号：s0120523050002 邮箱：zhaikun＠tebon.com.cn 研究助理 谢佶圆 邮箱：xiejy＠tebon.com.cn 市场表现 -34% -26% -17% -9% 0% 9% 17% 26% 2024-05 2024-09 2025-01 煤炭开采 沪深300 资料来源：聚源数据、德邦研究所 相关研究 1.《永泰能源（600157.SH）：煤炭 主业以量补价，煤电协同稳步推 进》，2025.4.29 2.《煤炭周报：宏观预期强化，重 视板块底部布局》，2025.4.27 3.《煤炭周报：煤价震荡寻底，关 注板块红利属性》，2025.4.20 4.《煤炭行业月报：3 月进口同比转 负 ， 静 待 后 续 需 求 改 善 》， 2025.4.18 5.《煤炭周报：煤价底部企稳，回 购增持彰显板块价值》，2025.4.12 煤炭周报: 板块业绩有望筑底， 寻找相对确定性机会 [Table_Summary] 投资要点： 煤炭开采 2025 年 05 月 11 日 请务必阅读正文之后的信息披露和法律声明 证券研究报告 | 行业周报 25Q1 业 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the banking industry [1] Core Viewpoints - The report emphasizes a "pro-cyclical + high dividend" strategy, highlighting that policy measures are driving valuation recovery in the sector. The average dividend yield for the sector is currently at 4.49%, which remains historically high compared to the risk-free rate represented by the 10-year government bond yield [3][5] - The report anticipates that the improvement in the sector will be catalyzed by policy support, particularly from the real estate and consumer sectors. The static price-to-book (PB) ratio for the sector is only 0.65 times, indicating a significant safety margin with an implied non-performing loan (NPL) ratio exceeding 15% [3][5] - Recommended stocks include regional banks benefiting from policy expectations (Chengdu, Changsha, Suzhou, Changshu, Ningbo) and high-dividend stocks (ICBC, CCB, Shanghai Bank) [3][5] Summary by Sections Industry Performance - As of the end of April, 42 listed banks reported a year-on-year decline in net profit of 1.2% for Q1 2025, a decrease of 3.5 percentage points compared to 2024 [5] - The revenue growth rate for listed banks in Q1 2025 fell to -1.7%, down 1.8 percentage points from 2024. Net interest income decreased by 1.7% year-on-year, while non-interest income showed signs of stabilization [5][9] Market Trends - In April 2025, the banking sector experienced a slight decline of 0.06%, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 2.94 percentage points, ranking fifth among 30 sectors [3] Macro and Liquidity Tracking - The manufacturing PMI for April was reported at 49%, a decrease of 1.5 percentage points. The new RMB loans in March 2025 increased by 3.64 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of 7.4% [3][5] Asset Quality - The overall asset quality of listed banks remains stable, with the NPL ratio decreasing by 1 basis point to 1.22% in Q1 2025. The provision coverage ratio decreased by 2.13 percentage points to 238% [10][11]