● 本报记者 彭扬 （DR001）的波动性也会较往年平均水平有所收敛。"王青说。 国债买卖工具有望加力 1月29日，中国人民银行以固定利率、数量招标方式开展了3540亿元7天期逆回购操作。当日，公开市场 有2102亿元7天逆回购到期，因此实现净投放1438亿元。 专家表示，央行近期多措并举，释放明确维护流动性意图，将继续综合运用公开市场操作等多种货币政 策工具，确保流动性处于充裕水平。 节前流动性缺口压力不大 专家表示，1月以来，信贷"开门红"发力、春节前居民取现需求攀升、年初政府债供给压力阶段性抬升 等多重因素，对当前市场流动性产生一定影响。不过，央行近期对1月到期的中期借贷便利（MLF）大 幅超额续做，明确释放出主动呵护流动性的政策意图。 "考虑到2026年1月MLF净投放7000亿元，买断式逆回购净投放3000亿元，春节前已实现1万亿元左右的 中长期资金投放，相当于降准50个BP左右的效果。"兴业证券首席固收分析师左大勇说。 左大勇预计，2月初央行或逐渐重启14天期逆回购操作，且2月5日、15日左右大概率会分别开展3个月 期、6个月期买断式逆回购，预计节前流动性缺口压力不大。 为应对潜在流动性可能存在收 ...

2026 年 01 月 29 日 固定收益点评 研究所： 国海证券研究所 请务必阅读正文后免责条款部分 证券分析师： 颜子琦 S0350525090002 yanzq@ghzq.com.cn 证券分析师： 刘畅 S0350524090005 liuc06@ghzq.com.cn [Table_Title] ON RRP 如何管理流动性？ 固定收益点评 最近一年走势 本篇报告解决了以下核心问题：ON RRP 工具介绍。 相关报告 《债市锐评第 4 期：外汇结汇潮，如何影响国内流 动性？*颜子琦，刘畅》——2026-01-22 《固定收益点评：分红险复兴，如何影响保险配置 偏好？*颜子琦，刘畅》——2025-12-25 《固定收益点评：日债为何陷入高波动困局？*颜 子琦，刘畅》——2025-12-12 《固定收益点评：定制债基知多少*颜子琦，刘畅》 ——2025-12-07 《破局而立，波段致胜——2026 年利率债投资策 略*颜子琦，刘畅，洪子彦》——2025-12-03 ON RRP 是什么？ 美国 ON RRP 指隔夜逆回购协议，是美联储 向广泛的合格对手方出售证券，并约定次日回购的操作。其利率由 美联储设 ...

Group 1: Money Market Overview - In 2025, the total transaction volume in the money market reached 179.92 trillion yuan, an increase of 0.9% year-on-year, with an average daily transaction of 7.25 trillion yuan, up 2.1% year-on-year [2] - The central bank implemented a moderately accommodative monetary policy, utilizing various tools to inject liquidity into the market, resulting in a net liquidity injection of 64,315 billion yuan throughout the year [3] - The average daily balance in the money market increased by 3% year-on-year to 12.2 trillion yuan, while the daily net lending balance of large commercial banks decreased by 12%, and that of money market funds and policy banks increased by 9% and 15.9%, respectively [5] Group 2: Bond Market Dynamics - In 2025, the bond issuance volume reached 54.69 trillion yuan, with 26,000 bonds issued, marking a 14% increase year-on-year, and net financing increased by 31.8% to 20.33 trillion yuan [6] - The average daily transaction in the cash bond market was 15.14 billion yuan, with a total of 907.5 million transactions, reflecting a 2.9% increase year-on-year [7] - The yield curve for government bonds steepened, with the 10-year government bond yield fluctuating between 1.6% and 1.9%, and the overall credit spreads narrowed [8] Group 3: Interest Rate Swap Market - The interest rate swap curve steepened, with significant increases in long-term rates; the average daily transaction volume in the RMB interest rate swap market increased by 18.5% year-on-year, with a nominal principal total of 44.3 trillion yuan [9] - The daily average transaction volume for standard bond forwards and interest rate options also saw year-on-year increases, indicating a growing interest in these financial instruments [9]

Group 1 - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) has implemented a series of targeted operations to effectively counter seasonal liquidity pressures, maintaining a reasonable level of liquidity ahead of the Spring Festival [1] - On January 26, the PBOC conducted a 150.5 billion yuan 7-day reverse repo operation at an interest rate of 1.40%, despite a net withdrawal of 207.8 billion yuan in the open market on the same day [1] - The total amount of reverse repos maturing during the week of January 26-30 reached 1.181 trillion yuan, alongside MLF maturities, resulting in a liquidity withdrawal pressure exceeding 1.3 trillion yuan [1] Group 2 - The PBOC has optimized structural monetary policy tools by lowering interest rates on loans for agriculture and small enterprises, as well as for technological innovation [3] - PBOC officials indicated that there is still room for further reductions in reserve requirements and interest rates this year, although the urgency for a reserve requirement cut before the Spring Festival has decreased [3] - Market analysts expect that the PBOC may implement 1 to 2 reserve requirement cuts and potentially 2 interest rate cuts in 2026, with the timing for policy rate reductions anticipated in the second quarter [3]

Core Viewpoint - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) will continue to implement a moderately accommodative monetary policy in 2026, focusing on promoting stable economic growth and reasonable price recovery as key considerations for monetary policy [1][4] Group 1: Monetary Policy Direction - The monetary policy will emphasize flexibility and precision while maintaining a moderately accommodative stance, shifting focus from mere scale expansion to supporting high-quality development and price stability [1][4] - The PBOC plans to adjust policy rates based on actual changes in corporate financing costs rather than solely aiming for unilateral reductions, stabilizing social financing costs within a reasonable range [1][3] Group 2: Liquidity Management - The PBOC intends to supplement market funds through a "combination of long and short" strategies, with room for further rate cuts and reserve requirement ratio (RRR) reductions in 2026 [2] - Innovative tools like buyout reverse repos will be utilized to smooth out short-term shocks from government bond issuance and maintain stable liquidity [2] Group 3: Structural Tools - Structural monetary policy tools will focus on key areas, aiming for a "precise drip irrigation" effect to support major strategies and weak links [2][3] - The PBOC has increased the quota for technology innovation re-loans from 800 billion yuan to 1.2 trillion yuan, now including "high R&D investment private enterprises" to ensure resources are allocated to genuine innovators [3] Group 4: Risk Management - The PBOC will enhance monitoring and assessment of systemic financial risks, accelerating reforms in small financial institutions to mitigate regional risks [3] - The management of cross-border capital flows will focus on dynamic balance, using macro-prudential tools to prevent short-term capital volatility [3] Group 5: External Environment - The easing of external constraints on China's monetary policy due to the Federal Reserve's rate cuts provides a window for interest rate adjustments, although policy changes will remain independent [4] - The ongoing process of renminbi internationalization and the development of cross-border payment systems are expected to enhance international market interest in renminbi assets [4]

Group 1 - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) announced a 900 billion yuan MLF operation to maintain liquidity in the banking system, with a net injection of 700 billion yuan after accounting for 200 billion yuan maturing this month [2][4] - The central bank's actions are aimed at stabilizing the financing environment for the real economy, particularly in light of seasonal cash withdrawals around the Spring Festival and the issuance of government bonds [2][3] - The PBOC's open market operations are crucial for monetary policy and liquidity management, with a total net injection of 6 trillion yuan in 2025 [2] Group 2 - Analysts believe the recent MLF operation is designed to support major projects and enhance economic recovery, especially with the early issuance of local government bonds [3][4] - The central bank has lowered the re-lending and rediscount rates by 0.25 percentage points to encourage financial institutions to support key sectors [4][5] - The PBOC is expected to continue its supportive monetary policy stance, with potential for further adjustments in reserve requirement ratios or MLF rates depending on economic and inflation data [4][5]

Core Viewpoint - A significant surge in the issuance of large-denomination certificates of deposit (CDs) by small and medium-sized banks has been observed, reflecting a shift towards short-term products in response to a challenging interest margin environment [1][4]. Group 1: Issuance Trends - As of January 22, at least 234 new large-denomination CDs from small and medium-sized banks have been launched, indicating a robust issuance trend [2]. - On January 22 alone, five banks issued a total of 12 new CD products, with Changshu Bank notably offering multiple series of CDs [2]. Group 2: Characteristics of New Products - The newly issued CDs exhibit a clear trend towards shorter maturities, with half of the products from Changshu Bank having a duration of only six months, and the longest being two years [3]. - Personal large-denomination CDs are increasingly difficult to find in five-year terms, with one- to two-year products dominating the market [3]. Group 3: Interest Rates - The annualized interest rates for personal large-denomination CDs from small and medium-sized banks have generally fallen to the "1" range, yet remain competitive compared to state-owned banks [3]. - For three-year CDs, interest rates are typically in the range of 1.75% to 1.85%, while one- and two-year products generally offer rates between 1.35% and 1.5% [3]. Group 4: Market Dynamics - The trend towards short-term products reflects banks' proactive measures to adapt to a low net interest margin environment, as they seek to stabilize profits by reducing or halting high-cost long-term deposits [4]. - The upcoming maturity of approximately 32 trillion yuan in long-term deposits by 2026, with a significant portion maturing in the first quarter, indicates a shift in deposit re-pricing dynamics [4]. Group 5: Deposit Migration - The ongoing decline in deposit rates and the phenomenon of "deposit migration" are critical market concerns, with a projected 6 trillion yuan in excess savings formed by residents from 2022 to 2025 [5]. - Despite a recovering capital market, residents' investment and consumption tendencies have not significantly improved, suggesting that deposit migration is more about asset allocation adjustments rather than a fundamental change in risk appetite [5][6].

Core Viewpoint - The Danish pension fund "AkademikerPension" plans to sell all of its U.S. Treasury holdings by the end of January due to perceived credit risks associated with U.S. government policies under Trump [1] Group 1: Fund Overview - AkademikerPension manages approximately $25 billion in savings for teachers and scholars [1] - As of the end of 2025, the fund holds about $10 million in U.S. Treasury securities [1] Group 2: Reasons for Decision - The Chief Investment Officer, Anders Schelde, stated that the overall credit condition of the U.S. is poor and the long-term fiscal situation of the U.S. government is unsustainable [1] - Risk management and liquidity management were the only reasons for maintaining Treasury holdings, but the fund has decided to seek alternative options [1] - Factors influencing this decision include concerns over fiscal discipline, a weak dollar, and Trump's threatening remarks regarding Greenland [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article is that the People's Bank of China is taking measures to support the high-quality development of the real economy through flexible monetary policies [1] - The central bank will consider various factors such as the need for base currency issuance, supply and demand in the bond market, and changes in the yield curve when conducting operations [1] - The aim is to maintain ample liquidity in the market, creating a suitable monetary environment for the smooth issuance of government bonds [1]

Core Insights - The article emphasizes the importance of financial management in achieving wealth freedom while highlighting that over 90% of financial losses stem from poor platform and product choices [1] Group 1: Financial Traps - The allure of guaranteed high returns, such as "annual yield of 15% with capital protection," often leads investors to fall into Ponzi schemes, where new investors' funds are used to pay returns to earlier investors [2] - Platforms may use misleading terms like "zero risk" and "short-term doubling" to attract investors while concealing the actual risks associated with underlying assets [3] - Many financial products advertise performance benchmarks of 4%-6%, which new investors mistakenly interpret as guaranteed returns, rather than reference values subject to market fluctuations [4] Group 2: Platform Risks - Engaging with unlicensed platforms equates to dealing with fraudsters, as these platforms often operate as Ponzi schemes and are difficult to pursue legally when issues arise [5] - Non-compliant platforms may require investors to transfer funds to private accounts, increasing the risk of fund misappropriation; legitimate platforms should use third-party bank custodians [6] - Products lacking transparency regarding fund flow and underlying assets pose significant dangers, and regulations now prohibit net asset value products from guaranteeing capital protection [7] Group 3: Investment Management - Investors often mismanage liquidity by tying up funds in long-term products, leading to losses when they need to liquidate investments unexpectedly; it is advisable to keep 3-6 months of expenses in liquid assets [9] - True diversification requires investments across different asset classes and sectors; merely holding various funds in the same industry does not achieve effective diversification [10] - Frequent trading can amplify risks, as panic selling during downturns or following trends can lead to poor investment decisions; holding investments for at least six months is recommended [11] Group 4: Fraud Awareness - Scammers are increasingly using advanced technologies like screen sharing and AI to perpetrate fraud, often under the guise of credit card enhancement or investment advice [12] - Fraudsters may lure victims into investment groups via social media, initially offering small returns to build trust before preventing withdrawals with various excuses [13] - Any requests for cash transactions under the pretext of large transfers or overseas remittances should be avoided, as they are often linked to money laundering [14] Group 5: Psychological Factors - The mindset of greed and luck can lead to significant financial losses, as investors may continue to invest in hopes of recovering losses or achieving greater gains [15][16] - Lack of information discernment, such as believing unverified information from social networks, can lead to poor investment choices; investors should prioritize regulated financial institutions [17] - Continuous learning about financial markets and regulatory changes is crucial for enhancing risk recognition and avoiding losses [18]