Group 1 - The U.S. job market is showing signs of weakness, with non-farm payrolls for July and August significantly below expectations, indicating a slowdown in economic momentum [5][6] - Inflation data remains moderate, with the U.S. CPI growth rate at 2.9% year-on-year and core CPI at 3.1%, suggesting that tariff impacts on inflation are manageable [5][6] - Market expectations are heavily leaning towards a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve, with a 96.1% probability assigned to this outcome [2][6] Group 2 - Analysts predict that a weaker dollar is likely to continue, which may lead to a reallocation of global funds and support the performance of gold [8][10] - The current economic environment in the U.S. is characterized by "stagflation-like" tendencies, with declining consumer confidence and investment willingness [9] - The anticipated rate cuts by the Federal Reserve could lead to a favorable environment for gold, with prices already showing a significant increase of nearly 40% year-to-date [10][11] Group 3 - The impact of the Federal Reserve's rate cuts on the U.S. stock market is expected to vary, with potential short-term liquidity injections but possible long-term volatility [12][13] - Historical patterns suggest that U.S. stocks may not experience significant downward adjustments during preventive rate cuts, especially in the absence of other negative factors [13] - The Chinese stock market may benefit from the weaker dollar and a restructuring of global monetary order, with small-cap stocks in sectors like biotechnology and AI gaining attention [14][15]

Group 1 - The market has strong expectations for a Federal Reserve interest rate cut in September, with a 92% probability for a 25 basis point cut and 8% for a 50 basis point cut [1] - The upcoming Federal Reserve meeting on September 16-17 has raised questions about the potential impact of a rate cut on the U.S. stock market and whether it would boost U.S. equities or accelerate capital flows to other global markets [1][2] Group 2 - There are two types of interest rate cuts: preventive cuts, which are moderate measures taken to avert potential economic risks, and crisis cuts, which are aggressive actions taken during severe economic downturns [2] - Historical analysis shows that preventive cuts generally have a positive effect on the U.S. stock market, while crisis cuts often fail to prevent market declines due to existing economic challenges [7][8] Group 3 - The current economic environment in the U.S. is characterized by "stagflation," with a GDP growth rate of 2.4% in Q4 2024, which is lower than the previous quarter's 3.1% [10] - The inflation rate remains relatively high, with core PCE and CPI growth rates at 2.86% and 3.2% respectively, complicating the effectiveness of the upcoming preventive rate cuts [10][11] Group 4 - The first phase of the current rate cut cycle has not met expectations, with the stock market showing weak performance despite a total of 100 basis points cut over three months [11] - The market's reaction has been characterized by volatility, with a pattern of initial gains followed by declines, reflecting concerns over inflation and economic stability [11][16] Group 5 - There has been a notable outflow of funds from the U.S. stock market, with approximately $259 billion exiting in the first half of the year, primarily reallocating to safer assets like bonds and money markets [17][21] - Despite the outflow, the U.S. stock market remains dominant in global asset allocation, with a significant portion of funds still allocated to U.S. equities [21][22] Group 6 - The potential for a systemic shift in capital from U.S. to global markets is limited, as the outflows are more about risk management rather than a loss of confidence in U.S. equities [21][22] - Future capital flows will depend on the Federal Reserve's policy decisions and the economic landscape, with two possible strategies: a cautious approach maintaining moderate cuts or an aggressive strategy under political pressure [23][24]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings were provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - The overall market shows a complex and diverse trend. In the financial derivatives market, stock index futures are oscillating and differentiating, with the new - energy sector being structurally strong; treasury bond futures are affected by weak fundamentals and strong risk preferences; precious metals are rising due to concerns about the Fed's independence; and container shipping futures are expected to decline. In the commodity futures market, different metal and agricultural product futures have their own supply - demand and market situation characteristics, and corresponding investment suggestions are given based on these [2][5][8][11]. 3. Summary by Directory Financial Derivatives Financial Futures - **Stock Index Futures**: On Monday, the A - share market showed oscillating differentiation. The Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.26%, while the Shenzhen Component Index and the ChiNext Index rose. The new - energy sector was hot, and financial stocks adjusted. Most of the four major stock index futures contracts declined. The base difference of the 09 contracts is rapidly repairing. The market is affected by domestic economic data and overseas news. The operation suggestion is to consider the option double - buying strategy if the volatility continues to decline [2][3][4]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: Treasury bond futures closed up across the board, but the yields of major interest - rate bonds in the inter - bank market rose at the end of the session. The weak economic data in August is favorable for the bond market, but the strong risk preference suppresses long - term bonds. The operation suggestion is to wait and see, pay attention to the capital situation and whether incremental credit - easing policies are introduced [5][6][7]. Precious Metals - Gold and silver prices rose. Before the FOMC meeting, Trump's call for a sharp interest - rate cut and the possible confirmation of a cabinet member as a voting member have increased concerns about the Fed's independence and credibility, weakening the US dollar and boosting the prices of precious metals. The future outlook is that the Fed's policy path may suppress the US dollar index, and the political turmoil in Europe and the US has increased the demand for precious metals as a hedge [8][9][10]. Container Shipping (European Lines) - The spot prices of container shipping continue to decline slowly. The SCFIS European line index and the Shanghai - Europe freight rate have decreased. The global container capacity has increased year - on - year. The futures price fell, and the spot price has a downward impact on the futures. It is expected that the spot will continue to decline slowly, and the futures price will also decline. The operation suggestion is to short the 10 - contract unilaterally or conduct a 12 - 10 spread arbitrage [11][12]. Commodity Futures Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: The spot price of copper has risen, and the downstream consumption is weak. The 9 - month interest - rate cut is almost certain, which boosts copper prices in the short term. The fundamental situation is "weak reality + stable expectation". The operation suggestion is that the main contract fluctuates between 79500 - 82000 yuan/ton [13][14][16]. - **Alumina**: The spot price has declined, and the supply pattern is gradually loose. The futures price shows a low - level oscillating trend, presenting a pattern of "high supply, high inventory, and weak demand". The operation suggestion is that the main contract fluctuates between 2900 - 3200 yuan/ton, and short positions can be considered in the medium term if the cost support weakens [17][18][20]. - **Aluminum**: The spot price has declined. The supply has increased slightly year - on - year, and the demand is in the process of transitioning from the off - season to the peak season. The price is expected to oscillate around the peak - season expectation and the actual consumption fulfillment. The operation suggestion is that the main contract fluctuates between 20600 - 21400 yuan/ton [20][21][22]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: The spot price is stable. The supply is expected to increase slightly in September, and the demand is expected to improve marginally. The cost is strongly supported, and the price is expected to remain high and oscillate. The operation suggestion is that the main contract fluctuates between 20200 - 20800 yuan/ton, and a spread arbitrage strategy can be considered [22][23][24]. - **Zinc**: The spot price is stable. The supply of zinc ore is loose, and the production of refined zinc is expected to increase. The demand is in the peak season, but the domestic and overseas markets are differentiated. The price is expected to oscillate, and the operation suggestion is that the main contract fluctuates between 21800 - 22800 yuan/ton [25][26][29]. - **Tin**: The spot price has declined. The supply of tin ore is tight, and the demand is weak. The price is expected to remain high and oscillate. The operation suggestion is that the main contract fluctuates between 265000 - 285000 yuan/ton [30][31][32]. - **Nickel**: The spot price has risen slightly. The macro - environment is improving, and the supply of refined nickel is at a relatively high level. The demand is stable in some areas and weak in others. The price is expected to be strong and oscillate in a range. The operation suggestion is that the main contract fluctuates between 120000 - 125000 yuan/ton [33][34][35]. - **Stainless Steel**: The spot price has risen. The supply is expected to increase, and the demand is in the peak - season expectation but has not been significantly released. The price is expected to oscillate in a range. The operation suggestion is that the main contract fluctuates between 12800 - 13400 yuan/ton [37][38][39]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The spot price is stable. The supply is increasing slightly, and the demand is optimistic. The market is in a tight - balance state. The price is expected to be strong and oscillate. The operation suggestion is that the main contract fluctuates between 70000 - 75000 yuan/ton [40][41][43]. Ferrous Metals - **Steel**: The spot price has risen. The cost is affected by factors such as coking coal and iron ore. The supply is at a high level, and the demand is in a seasonal decline. The price is expected to rise, and the pressure levels for rebar and hot - rolled coil are 3350 yuan/ton and 3500 yuan/ton respectively [44][46][47]. - **Iron Ore**: The spot price has declined slightly. The supply has increased, and the demand has increased due to the recovery of iron - water production. The inventory is in a state of slight change. The price is expected to be oscillating and bullish, and the operation suggestion is to go long on the 2601 contract unilaterally and conduct a spread arbitrage of long iron ore and short hot - rolled coil [48][49][50]. - **Coking Coal**: The futures price has rebounded strongly, while the spot price is oscillating weakly. The supply is gradually recovering, and the demand has increased due to the recovery of iron - water production. The inventory is in a state of medium - level decline. The operation suggestion is to go long on the 2601 contract unilaterally and conduct a spread arbitrage of long coking coal and short coke [51][52][53]. - **Coke**: The futures price has rebounded strongly, and the second - round price cut by steel mills has been implemented. The supply is increasing, and the demand has support. The inventory is in a state of medium - level increase. The operation suggestion is to go long on the 2601 contract unilaterally and conduct a spread arbitrage of long coking coal and short coke [54][55][57]. Agricultural Products - **Meal (Soybean Meal and Rapeseed Meal)**: The domestic soybean meal spot price has declined. The US soybean supply is strong and the demand is weak. The Brazilian soybean premium is strong, which supports the domestic cost. The domestic soybean meal inventory has risen to a high level. The price of the 01 contract is expected to fluctuate between 3050 - 3150 yuan/ton [58][59][61]. - **Pigs**: The spot price is oscillating weakly. The breeding - end slaughter has increased, and the demand is slowly recovering. The supply recovery pattern is clear, and the price is expected to continue to bottom - out [62][63].

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. Core Viewpoints The report analyzes the market conditions, important news, logical analysis, and trading strategies of various metals including precious metals, copper, alumina, casting aluminum alloy, electrolytic aluminum, zinc, lead, nickel, stainless steel, industrial silicon, polysilicon, lithium carbonate, and tin. The market for each metal is influenced by factors such as macro - economic data, supply - demand relationships, policy changes, and geopolitical events. The investment opportunities and risks vary among different metals, and specific trading strategies are proposed accordingly [3][8][12]. Summary by Metal Precious Metals - **Market Review**: London gold closed up 0.26% at $3643.06 per ounce, and London silver closed up 1.58% at $42.16 per ounce. The US dollar index rose 0.14% to 97.68, the 10 - year US Treasury yield fell to 4.027%, and the RMB against the US dollar fell 0.09% to 7.1246 [3]. - **Important News**: US inflation expectations and consumer confidence index were released, and there were Trump administration dynamics and high probabilities of Fed rate cuts [3]. - **Logic Analysis**: The US labor market's vulnerability and inflation data have strengthened the market's expectation of multiple Fed rate cuts this year [3]. - **Trading Strategy**: Consider reducing positions on rallies or taking profits near the 5 - day moving average; wait and see for arbitrage and options [6]. Copper - **Market Review**: The night - session of SHFE copper 2510 contract closed at 80810 yuan per ton, up 0.19%. LME copper closed at $10064.5 per ton, up 0.07%. LME inventory decreased by 225 tons to 15.39 million tons, and COMEX inventory increased by 653 tons to 31.04 million tons [8]. - **Important News**: There were Sino - US trade talks, and Grasberg copper mine had an accident [8]. - **Logic Analysis**: The US inflation and labor market data, along with supply disruptions and changes in inventory, have affected the copper market. The supply is tight, and the consumption shows a "not - so - prosperous peak season" [9]. - **Trading Strategy**: Consider going long on dips, pay attention to the support at $10000 per ton; conduct inter - market positive arbitrage; wait and see for options [10]. Alumina - **Market Review**: The night - session of alumina 2511 contract fell 11 yuan to 2897 yuan per ton. Spot prices in different regions showed declines [12]. - **Important News**: There were delays in Indian bauxite mining projects, changes in inventory, and cost and profit data [12][13]. - **Logic Analysis**: The supply - demand surplus in the alumina market is becoming more obvious, with prices falling both at home and abroad. However, beware of the impact of "anti - involution" sentiment [14]. - **Trading Strategy**: The price is expected to continue to be weak; wait and see for arbitrage and options [15]. Casting Aluminum Alloy - **Market Review**: The night - session of casting aluminum alloy 2511 contract rose 10 to 20580 yuan per ton. Spot prices in different regions increased [17]. - **Important News**: Policy changes affected the regenerative aluminum industry, and there were cost and inventory data [18][19]. - **Logic Analysis**: Policy changes have affected the supply of scrap aluminum, while the downstream demand is increasing. The market supply is tightening, and the price is expected to be stable and strong [20]. - **Trading Strategy**: The price is expected to be strong; wait and see for arbitrage and options [21][22]. Electrolytic Aluminum - **Market Review**: The night - session of SHFE aluminum 2510 contract rose 45 yuan to 21075 yuan per ton. Spot prices in different regions increased [24]. - **Important News**: There were Sino - US trade talks, changes in inventory, and new electrolytic aluminum projects in Indonesia [24]. - **Logic Analysis**: The market's expectation of Fed rate cuts has strengthened, and the supply - demand shortage pattern supports the aluminum price [26][28]. - **Trading Strategy**: The aluminum price is expected to be strong in the short - term; conduct AL10 - 12 positive arbitrage; wait and see for options [29]. Zinc - **Market Review**: LME zinc rose 1.76% to $2956 per ton, and SHFE zinc 2510 rose 0.09% to 22300 yuan per ton [31]. - **Important News**: There were changes in zinc ore processing fees [32]. - **Logic Analysis**: The domestic refined zinc supply may decrease slightly, and the consumption is flat. Overseas, LME is in a de - stocking phase, which supports the LME zinc price [32]. - **Trading Strategy**: The zinc price may be strong in the short - term; consider shorting on rallies in the medium - long term; wait and see for arbitrage and options [32][33]. Lead - **Market Review**: LME lead rose 1.18% to $2019 per ton, and SHFE lead 2510 rose 1.03% to 17140 yuan per ton [35]. - **Important News**: The operating rate of recycled lead smelters decreased [35]. - **Logic Analysis**: The reduction in domestic recycled lead supply and the pre - holiday stocking demand may push up the lead price, but beware of the impact of lead imports [36]. - **Trading Strategy**: The lead price is expected to be strong in the short - term; wait and see for arbitrage and options [36]. Nickel - **Market Review**: LME nickel rose $160 to $15380 per ton, and SHFE nickel rose 820 to 122010 yuan per ton [38]. - **Important News**: There were no major impacts on nickel mining operations in Indonesia, and there were new investment talks for nickel smelting projects [39]. - **Logic Analysis**: The market is optimistic about the macro - environment, but the supply increase in the peak season and the increase in LME inventory put pressure on the price [39]. - **Trading Strategy**: The nickel price is expected to be volatile and strong; wait and see for arbitrage and options [40]. Stainless Steel - **Market Review**: The SS2511 contract rose 15 to 12945 yuan per ton [43]. - **Important News**: Stainless steel enterprises are undergoing low - carbon emission transformation, and there are new global green trade rules [44]. - **Logic Analysis**: The Fed's possible rate cut, the "15th Five - Year Plan", and the approaching consumption peak season support the price [44]. - **Trading Strategy**: The stainless steel price is expected to be volatile and strong; wait and see for arbitrage [45]. Industrial Silicon - **Market Review**: The industrial silicon futures contract closed at 8745 yuan per ton, and the spot price rose 100 yuan per ton [47]. - **Important News**: There were changes in coal prices and industrial silicon production and inventory [49]. - **Logic Analysis**: The supply - demand balance will shift to a slight surplus, and the price may decline slightly but with limited amplitude [50]. - **Trading Strategy**: The price may decline in the short - term; consider going long after a sufficient decline; sell out - of - the - money put options; conduct reverse arbitrage for 11 and 12 contracts [51]. Polysilicon - **Market Review**: No specific market review information provided. - **Important News**: The cost and demand in the silicon wafer segment increased, and there were price increases [55]. - **Logic Analysis**: The long - term price trend is upward, but in the short - term, there are both positive and negative factors [55]. - **Trading Strategy**: The price is expected to be volatile in the short - term; buy on dips in the long - term; conduct reverse arbitrage for 2511 and 2512 contracts; hold out - of - the - money put options [55]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market Review**: The 2511 contract rose 500 to 71160 yuan per ton, and spot prices fell [57]. - **Important News**: There were policies to promote automobile consumption and a new lithium carbonate project in Argentina [57][59]. - **Logic Analysis**: The new automobile industry policy may boost the demand for lithium carbonate, but the price lacks strong driving forces [60]. - **Trading Strategy**: The price is expected to be in a wide - range shock; wait and see for arbitrage; sell out - of - the - money call options [61][62]. Tin - **Market Review**: SHFE tin closed at 274160 yuan per ton, up 0.48%. Spot prices rose, but the trading volume was low [62][63]. - **Important News**: There were Sino - US trade talks and Peruvian tin export data [63]. - **Logic Analysis**: The supply of tin ore is tight, and the demand improvement is slow. The inventory has increased [63]. - **Trading Strategy**: The tin price is expected to be volatile and strong in the short - term; wait and see for options [64].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided regarding the industry investment rating in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The market's expectation of multiple interest rate cuts by the Fed within this year has been further consolidated due to the mild rebound of the US CPI in August, the disappointing non - farm payroll data in August, and the significant annual downward revision of previous data, which highlights the fragility of the US labor market. In the short term, the expectation of the exhaustion of positive factors and the continuous concern about the medium - term "stagflation - like" risk may intensify the long - short game of precious metals near historical highs and amplify their volatility [8][10] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Review - In the precious metals market, during the day, the outer - market precious metals fluctuated narrowly near historical highs, with London gold trading around $3641 and London silver around $42.2. Driven by the outer - market, Shanghai gold closed up 0.1% at 831.6 yuan/gram, and the main Shanghai silver contract closed up 0.88% at 10,017 yuan/kilogram [3] - The US dollar index was consolidating at a low level, trading around 97.56 [4] - The 10 - year US Treasury yield rebounded slightly, trading around 4.07% [5] - The RMB exchange rate against the US dollar was consolidating at a high level, trading around 7.123 [6] Important Information - US macro: The preliminary value of the one - year inflation rate expectation in September in the US was 4.8% (expected 4.7%, previous value 4.80%), and the preliminary value of the University of Michigan consumer confidence index in September was 55.4 (expected 58, previous value 58.2) [7] - Trump administration dynamics: On the 12th, Trump urged the US Court of Appeals to approve the dismissal of Fed Governor Cook again. Trump also said that his patience with Russian President Putin was "rapidly running out" and threatened to impose new economic sanctions on Moscow because the efforts to mediate the Russia - Ukraine cease - fire negotiations had been blocked [7] - Fed observation: The probability of the Fed cutting interest rates by 25 basis points this week is 96.4%, and the probability of a 50 - basis - point cut is 3.6%. The probability of a cumulative 25 - basis - point cut in October is 16.0%, a cumulative 50 - basis - point cut is 81.0%, and a cumulative 75 - basis - point cut is 3.0%. The market is betting on interest rate cuts in September, October, and December this year [7] Logical Analysis - The mild rebound of the US CPI in August, combined with the disappointing non - farm payroll data and the significant downward revision of previous data, highlights the fragility of the US labor market, further consolidating the market's expectation of multiple interest rate cuts by the Fed within this year. In the short term, the expectation of the exhaustion of positive factors and the concern about the medium - term "stagflation - like" risk may intensify the long - short game of precious metals near historical highs and amplify their volatility [8][10] Trading Strategies - Unilateral: Conservative investors can consider waiting and seeing for the time being; aggressive investors can consider going long on dips against the 5 - day moving average, paying attention to setting exit points and position management [11] - Arbitrage: Wait and see [12] - Options: Wait and see for the time being [13] Data Reference - The report provides multiple sets of data charts, including the relationship between the US dollar index and precious metals, the relationship between real yields and precious metals, the relationship between domestic and foreign futures prices, the relationship between futures and spot prices, the domestic - foreign price difference, the gold - silver ratio, ETF holdings, futures trading volume, futures inventory, TD data, and the relationship between Treasury yields and the break - even inflation rate [15][17][21]

Group 1 - The cryptocurrency market experienced a significant decline, with Dogecoin down 5.24%, Ripple down 3.34%, Ethereum down 1.41%, and Bitcoin down 0.36% as of September 14 [1] - Over the past 24 hours, more than 120,000 traders in the virtual currency market faced liquidation [2] - The Federal Reserve is set to hold a monetary policy meeting from September 16 to 17, with a 92% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut and an 8% probability of a 50 basis point cut [2] Group 2 - Following the release of the Consumer Price Index (CPI) and initial jobless claims data, the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield fell below 4%, the dollar index declined, and U.S. stocks reached new highs [3] - The rise in initial jobless claims to a nearly four-year high has shifted the Federal Reserve's focus towards employment, reinforcing expectations for rate cuts [3] - Despite the consensus on three rate cuts by the end of the year, there are concerns about the potential for an unexpected rebound in inflation due to supply-side factors, which could limit the Fed's ability to ease monetary policy [3][4] Group 3 - The future performance of the U.S. financial markets post-rate cut will largely depend on the economic outlook; a soft landing could support stock market gains, while a rapid deterioration in the economy could lead to significant market adjustments [4]

Group 1 - The cryptocurrency market experienced a significant decline, with Dogecoin down 5.24%, Ripple down 3.34%, Ethereum down 1.41%, and Bitcoin down 0.36% as of September 14 [1] - Over 120,000 traders faced liquidation in the past 24 hours, indicating high volatility in the virtual currency market [2] - The Federal Reserve is expected to announce a 25 basis point rate cut with a 92% probability during its upcoming meeting on September 16-17, 2023 [2] Group 2 - The U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) for August increased by 0.4% month-on-month and 2.9% year-on-year, while core CPI rose by 0.3% month-on-month and 3.1% year-on-year [2] - Initial jobless claims rose by 27,000 to 263,000, the highest level since October 2021, which may influence the Federal Reserve's monetary policy focus towards employment [3] - The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield fell below 4%, and the dollar index declined, contributing to new highs in the U.S. stock market [3] Group 3 - Market expectations suggest the Federal Reserve may cut rates three times before the end of the year, but there are concerns about the potential for an unexpected rebound in inflation due to supply-side factors [3] - If the U.S. economy and job market deteriorate rapidly, it could lead to a reassessment of economic and corporate profit outlooks, resulting in significant adjustments in financial markets [4]

| 思陵 C | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 1小时爆仓 | $2704.85万 | 4小时爆仓 | $6830.17万 | | 多車 | $2378.78万 | 念萌 | $6212.79万 | | 空单 | $326.07万 | 空单 | $617.38万 | | 12小时爆仓 | $1.38亿 | 24小时爆仓 | $2.74亿 | | 多車 | $9637.54万 | 多重 | $1.82亿 | | 空单 | $4168.87万 | 空車 | $9268.47万 | | | 最近24小时，全球共有 121,036 人被爆仓 ，爆仓总金额为 $2.74 亿 | | | | | 最大单笔爆仓单发生在 Binance - ETHUSDT 价值 $1179.24万 | | | | 1小时 4小时 爆仓热力图 | 12小时 24小时 | | 而神 | | 交易所 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 人人 IIJ | 比特币 $259.20万 | 瑞波币 $114.32万 | 溶胶 $103.28万 | | | ...

记者丨 吴斌 编辑丨包芳鸣 江佩佩 张嘉钰 9月14日晚间，比特币、以太币等加密货币集体跳水下跌。截至22:19，狗狗币下跌5.24%，瑞波币下跌3.34%，以太币下跌1.41%，比特币下跌 0.36%。 | 爆仓热力图 | 1小时 | 4小时 12小时 | 24小时 | | | | 市种 | | 交易所 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 大人人 | | | 比特币 $259.20万 | | 瑞波币 $114.32万 | | 溶胶 $103.28万 | | | ADA | | | | | | 泵 | | ENA | AAVI | AVN 公司 | WIF | SH 8 | | $886.97万 | | | 狗狗币 | BTR的 | | 家米 WLD | LIN LDC | AVA 的 | 士 脚 | 발 | | | | | $186.14万 | | 1000佩佩 | | 皮 HE | FIL | 等 | 穆登 | | | | | | | | 的 | 的 斯 | | | | | 其他 | | | | ...

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve is expected to announce a 25 basis point interest rate cut at the upcoming FOMC meeting on September 18, with a 93.4% probability according to the "Fed Watch" tool, potentially lowering the policy rate range to 4%-4.25% [1] Group 1: Federal Reserve Leadership - Rick Rieder, a senior executive at BlackRock, is emerging as a leading candidate to succeed Jerome Powell as the next Federal Reserve Chair [3] - U.S. Treasury Secretary Mnuchin has met with Rieder to discuss monetary policy and regulatory issues, indicating Rieder's strong candidacy [3] - Rieder's analytical approach, which emphasizes forward-looking frameworks over lagging data, aligns with the Trump administration's desire for a more flexible monetary policy [4] Group 2: Interest Rate Expectations - Rieder advocates for a 50 basis point rate cut, which is double the market's expectation of a 25 basis point cut [7] - The market anticipates at least one more rate cut by the end of the year, with traders increasing their bets on the Fed's easing measures [1][9] - Analysts from Renaissance Macro Research and CITIC Securities suggest that the Fed may ultimately compromise with a 25 basis point cut, while also addressing labor market pressures [8][9] Group 3: Economic Indicators - Recent data indicates that U.S. job growth has nearly stalled, while inflation pressures are still building, leading to a focus on employment issues over inflation concerns [9] - The August CPI data met expectations, suggesting that inflation is not worsening, which supports the case for rate cuts [8][9]