| 思陵 C | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 1小时爆仓 | $2704.85万 | 4小时爆仓 | $6830.17万 | | 多車 | $2378.78万 | 念萌 | $6212.79万 | | 空单 | $326.07万 | 空单 | $617.38万 | | 12小时爆仓 | $1.38亿 | 24小时爆仓 | $2.74亿 | | 多車 | $9637.54万 | 多重 | $1.82亿 | | 空单 | $4168.87万 | 空車 | $9268.47万 | | | 最近24小时，全球共有 121,036 人被爆仓 ，爆仓总金额为 $2.74 亿 | | | | | 最大单笔爆仓单发生在 Binance - ETHUSDT 价值 $1179.24万 | | | | 1小时 4小时 爆仓热力图 | 12小时 24小时 | | 而神 | | 交易所 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 人人 IIJ | 比特币 $259.20万 | 瑞波币 $114.32万 | 溶胶 $103.28万 | | | ...

记者丨 吴斌 编辑丨包芳鸣 江佩佩 张嘉钰 9月14日晚间，比特币、以太币等加密货币集体跳水下跌。截至22:19，狗狗币下跌5.24%，瑞波币下跌3.34%，以太币下跌1.41%，比特币下跌 0.36%。 | 爆仓热力图 | 1小时 | 4小时 12小时 | 24小时 | | | | 市种 | | 交易所 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 大人人 | | | 比特币 $259.20万 | | 瑞波币 $114.32万 | | 溶胶 $103.28万 | | | ADA | | | | | | 泵 | | ENA | AAVI | AVN 公司 | WIF | SH 8 | | $886.97万 | | | 狗狗币 | BTR的 | | 家米 WLD | LIN LDC | AVA 的 | 士 脚 | 발 | | | | | $186.14万 | | 1000佩佩 | | 皮 HE | FIL | 等 | 穆登 | | | | | | | | 的 | 的 斯 | | | | | 其他 | | | | ...

美联储重磅时刻来袭！ 9月18日，美联储FOMC将公布利率决议和经济预期摘要；美联储主席鲍威尔将召开货币政策新闻发布 会。按照 "美联储观察"工具显示，下周FOMC有93.4%的概率将祭出25个基点的降息，将美国政策利率 区间下降至4%-4.25%。还有极其微弱的可能性会降息50个基点。 据最新消息，贝莱德的高管Rick Rieder跻身下一任美联储主席热门人选之列。美国财政部长贝森特9月 12日与Rieder进行了长达两小时的会谈，贝森特特别欣赏Rieder使用前瞻性框架评估经济的能力。 值得关注的是，Rieder近日表示，基于他对经济指标的解读，美联储应降息50个基点，这是市场普遍预 期的25个基点的两倍。当前，交易员加大了对美联储降息的押注，预期美联储下周会议至少降息25基 点，并且年底前可能还会再降息两次。 贝莱德高管成为热门人选之一 据彭博社消息，一位政府官员透露，贝莱德高管Rick Rieder正迅速成为接替鲍威尔担任下一任美联储主 席的热门人选。鲍威尔的美联储主席任期将于明年5月届满。 报道称，上述消息人士表示，美国财政部长贝森特9月12日在纽约与Rieder进行了长达两小时的会谈， 谈话内容涵 ...

Group 1: Tesla - Tesla's stock surged over 7%, reaching its highest level since January 31 [2] - The company launched a long-wheelbase six-seat electric SUV, Model Y L, in China, which sold out in October, with new orders expected to be delivered by November 2025 [2] - Tesla's chairman, Robyn Denholm, emphasized that artificial intelligence and autonomous driving are the company's top priorities, and praised Elon Musk's leadership during transformative times [2] Group 2: Nvidia - Nvidia's stock increased by 0.37%, as reports indicated the company is gradually scaling back its nascent cloud computing business, DGX Cloud [3] - This shift is seen as easing competitive pressure with major cloud service providers, particularly with its largest customer [3] Group 3: Federal Reserve and Economic Outlook - The market anticipates three rate cuts by the Federal Reserve before the end of the year, with each cut expected to be 25 basis points [4][6] - Economic data, including the August CPI and initial jobless claims, have fueled expectations for these rate cuts [4] - Concerns exist regarding the potential for over-optimism in rate cut expectations, particularly if inflation rises unexpectedly due to supply-side factors [6] - The performance of the financial markets post-rate cuts will heavily depend on the overall health of the U.S. economy [6]

英伟达 涨0.37%，据券商中国援引外媒消息，英伟达正逐步缩减其初兴的云计算业务。一位直 接了解情况的人士表示，英伟达已经减少了吸引企业使用这款名为DGX Cloud的云服务的努 力。 有分析指出，该业务曾让英伟达与亚马逊网络服务形成准竞争关系，这一变化缓解了英伟达与 其最大客户之间的紧张关系，特别是与占其营收一半的大型云服务商的竞争压力有所减轻。 芯片股 方面，费城半导体指数涨0.11%，美光科技涨超4%，超威半导体涨逾1%。ARM跌逾 2%，英特尔跌超2%。 中概股 方面，纳斯达克中国金龙指数跌0.11%，哔哩哔哩涨超4%，微博、百度、蔚来涨超 2%，36氪跌超10%，京东跌超2%。 记者 | 金珊 吴斌 编辑 | 曾静娇 包芳鸣 周五（9月12日），美国三大股指收盘涨跌不一，道指跌0.59%，标普500指数跌0.05%，纳指 涨0.44%，续创历史新高。 | | | 其中， 特斯拉 涨超7%，股价升至1月31日以来的最高水平。消息面上，特斯拉在中国推出的 加长轴距版六座纯电SUV车型，Model Y L，10月份在中国市场已售罄，新订单显示最早预计 交付时间为2025年11月。 此外，据财联社报道，特斯 ...

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve is expected to lower interest rates three times by the end of the year, driven by rising unemployment claims and stable inflation data [2][10][11] - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) for August increased by 0.4% month-on-month, with a year-on-year increase of 2.9%, while core CPI rose by 0.3% month-on-month and 3.1% year-on-year [2][4] - Initial jobless claims rose by 27,000 to 263,000, the highest level since October 2021, indicating a cooling labor market [2][8] Group 2 - Inflation data shows that while overall inflation is stable, certain categories like new and used cars and housing prices exhibit stickiness, suggesting limited room for aggressive rate cuts [4][5] - The market is concerned about the potential for a "stagflation-like" scenario if inflation rises unexpectedly alongside a weakening economy [11][12] - The response in financial markets indicates a strong expectation for rate cuts, with the 10-year Treasury yield dropping below 4% and the dollar index declining [11][12]

Group 1: Gold and Oil Price Predictions - UBS raises gold price target for the end of 2025 to $3,800 per ounce, up from $3,500, and expects it to reach $3,900 by mid-2026 [1] - Citigroup forecasts Brent crude oil prices to decline to $60 per barrel in the next 6 to 12 months, citing a tug-of-war between weakening fundamentals and rising geopolitical risks [1] - MUFG notes that oil prices stabilized after geopolitical tensions pushed them up, with traders weighing weak demand against oversupply [3] Group 2: European Central Bank (ECB) Insights - S&P indicates that the ECB has likely ended its rate-cutting cycle, but persistent inflation is still pressuring consumer confidence [1] - Deutsche Bank suggests that low interest rates may persist until 2027, with core inflation forecasts being adjusted downwards [1] - Morgan Stanley delays its ECB rate cut expectation to December, acknowledging significant global growth risks [2] Group 3: U.S. Economic Outlook - CICC highlights that U.S. inflation remains elevated, with August CPI rising 0.4% month-on-month and 2.9% year-on-year, indicating a risk of "stagflation" [6] - CITIC Securities maintains its forecast for three rate cuts by the Federal Reserve this year, each by 25 basis points, as inflation remains stable [7] Group 4: Electronics and AI Sector Growth - CITIC Construction Investment reports a recovery in the consumer electronics and semiconductor sectors, driven by AI capabilities, with a projected revenue growth of 19.2% for the electronic sector in the first half of 2025 [8] - Galaxy Securities expresses optimism for the PCB and domestic computing sectors, anticipating a resurgence in the foldable screen market by 2026 [10] Group 5: Real Estate Market Trends - CITIC Construction Investment notes that while the overall performance of the real estate sector remains under pressure, some quality firms are stabilizing their profit margins [9] - The land market shows signs of recovery, with major firms increasing land acquisition by 31% year-on-year [10]

Core Insights - The report from China International Capital Corporation (CICC) indicates that the U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by 0.4% month-on-month in August, with a year-on-year increase of 2.9%, while core CPI increased by 0.3% month-on-month and 3.1% year-on-year, aligning with market expectations [1] Inflation Analysis - Core goods prices, driven by automobiles, saw a year-on-year increase of 1.5%, marking the highest growth since May 2023, indicating a shift from deflation to inflation in the core goods sector for 2023-2024 [1] - The impact of tariffs on prices outside of automobiles appears limited, suggesting that companies face challenges in passing on tariff costs [1] - Service inflation has essentially stagnated, with notable rebounds in previously weak airline and hotel prices during the first half of the year [1] Economic Implications - Overall, the inflation data is not mild; however, due to ongoing weakness in employment data, the Federal Reserve may need to lower interest rates in response [1] - In the context of supply contraction, the stimulative effects of rate cuts are likely to manifest more as price increases rather than output expansion, indicating that the scope for rate cuts may be constrained and highlighting the risk of "stagflation" in the economy [1]

中金研究 美国8月CPI季调环比上涨0.4%，同比升至2.9%，核心CPI环比上涨0.3%，同比上涨3.1%，符合市场预期。分项来看，受汽车带动，核心商 品价格同比上涨1.5%，涨幅为2023年5月以来最高，表明核心商品部门已由2023-2024年的通缩转向通胀。关税对汽车以外价格的影响并不 明显，表明企业转嫁关税成本也面临阻力。服务通胀的放缓也已基本停滞，上半年疲软的机票与酒店价格显著反弹尤其值得关注。总体来 看，这份通胀数据并不温和，但由于就业数据持续走弱，美联储将不得不先降息应对。然而，在供给收缩背景下，降息的刺激效果往往更 多表现为物价上涨而非产出扩张，这意味着降息空间可能受限，经济"类滞胀"风险仍值得关注。 点击小程序查看报告原文 美国通胀基本延续了5月以来的反弹态势。食品价格指数季调环比上涨0.5%， 涨幅为2023年1月以来最高。 西红柿（4.5%）、苹果（3.5%）和 牛肉（2.7%）价格涨幅靠前。能源价格指数季调环比上涨0.7%，主要贡献来自汽油价格（1.9%）的上涨。 核心通胀方面，核心商品价格同比上涨1.5%， 涨幅为2023年5月以来最高，表明核心商品部门已由2023-2024年的通缩 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. Core View of the Report The report analyzes the market conditions of various metals including precious metals, copper, zinc, lead, nickel, stainless steel, industrial silicon, polysilicon, lithium carbonate, and tin. It points out that due to the weakness of the US labor market and potential tariff impacts, the "stagflation-like" risk remains, and precious metals are expected to maintain a strong performance at high levels. For other metals, factors such as supply and demand, macroeconomics, and geopolitical events are considered to determine their market trends and provide corresponding trading strategies [4]. Summary by Related Catalogs Precious Metals - **Market Review**: London gold initially broke through the 3670 mark but then dropped, closing down 0.32% at $3624.17 per ounce; London silver closed down 1.13% at $40.86 per ounce. The Shanghai gold main contract reached a historical high and closed up 0.11% at 832.6 yuan per gram, and the Shanghai silver main contract closed up 1.08% at 9760 yuan per kilogram. The US dollar index closed up 0.33% at 97.77, the 10 - year US Treasury yield rebounded to 4.0799%, and the RMB against the US dollar closed up 0.06% at 7.125 [3]. - **Important Information**: The US Supreme Court will hear Trump's tariff appeal case; the US economy may have added 911,000 fewer jobs in the 12 months ending in March than previously estimated; the probability of the Fed cutting interest rates by 25 basis points in September is 93%, and Israel launched an attack on Hamas leaders in Qatar [3][4]. - **Logic Analysis**: The weakness of the US labor market and geopolitical events led to the volatile trend of gold. Despite short - term fluctuations, precious metals are expected to remain strong at high levels due to the "stagflation - like" risk [4]. - **Trading Strategy**: Hold existing long positions in gold against the 5 - day moving average; take profit on existing long positions in silver at high prices. Adopt a bullish collar option strategy and wait and see for arbitrage [5]. Copper - **Market Review**: The night - session of the Shanghai copper 2510 contract closed down 0.14% at 79,600 yuan per ton, and the LME copper closed up 0.1% at $9916.5 per ton. The LME inventory decreased by 550 tons to 155,200 tons, and the COMEX inventory increased by 1917 tons to 307,600 tons [6]. - **Important Information**: The US non - farm employment was revised down by 911,000; Anglo American agreed to merge with Teck Resources; a mining accident in the Grasberg copper mine in Indonesia led to the suspension of operations [6][7]. - **Logic Analysis**: The Fed's 9 - month interest rate cut is confirmed, but the market's concern about recession has increased. The supply of refined copper in September is expected to decline, and the inventory in non - US regions is accumulating slowly. The consumption shows a weakening trend, but the substitution of refined copper for scrap copper is prominent [7]. - **Trading Strategy**: Short - term correction, pay attention to the support level of 78,500 yuan per ton and consider buying after the price stabilizes. Conduct cross - market positive arbitrage and cross - month arbitrage of buying 10 and selling 12. Wait and see for options [8]. Zinc - **Market Review**: The LME zinc closed down 0.21% at $2867 per ton, and the Shanghai zinc 2510 closed down 0.32% at 22,130 yuan per ton. The domestic spot market trading was average [10]. - **Important Information**: The CZSPT issued the reference range for the import zinc concentrate processing fee for the end of the fourth quarter of 2025; the domestic zinc ingot inventory increased; Huayu Mining completed a certain amount of mining and metal production in the first half of 2025 [11]. - **Logic Analysis**: The domestic zinc smelting production may decline slightly in September, but the consumption is weaker than expected, and the domestic inventory is accumulating. The LME zinc price is supported by inventory reduction [11]. - **Trading Strategy**: Existing short positions can continue to be held, beware of the impact of funds on zinc prices. Wait and see for arbitrage and options [12]. Lead - **Market Review**: The LME lead closed down 0.6% at $1978 per ton, and the Shanghai lead 2510 closed down 0.56% at 16,820 yuan per ton. The spot market trading was light [14]. - **Important Information**: The domestic lead ingot social inventory increased; a lead - acid battery manufacturer in the southwest plans to start production in October; a large recycled lead smelter in the east is about to resume production [14][15]. - **Logic Analysis**: The reduction and suspension of production of domestic recycled lead smelters have increased, and the consumption is weak. The short - term supply and demand may maintain a double - weak pattern, and the Shanghai lead price will continue to fluctuate [16]. - **Trading Strategy**: The short - term Shanghai lead price may move sideways. Wait and see for arbitrage and options [16][18]. Nickel - **Market Review**: The LME nickel price dropped to $15,105 per ton, and the inventory increased to 218,070 tons. The Shanghai nickel main contract NI2510 dropped to 120,400 yuan per ton [19]. - **Important Information**: Auric Mining completed a major acquisition of nickel mining rights [20]. - **Logic Analysis**: The poor US employment data and the continuous increase in LME inventory indicate an oversupply of refined nickel in China. The supply growth rate in September is higher, and the upward space of nickel price is limited [21]. - **Trading Strategy**: The nickel price is expected to be weak and volatile. Wait and see for arbitrage and options [21]. Stainless Steel - **Market Review**: The main SS2510 contract dropped to 12,835 yuan per ton, and the spot market prices of cold - rolled and hot - rolled stainless steel are in a certain range [23]. - **Important Information**: The US stainless steel price remained stable in August due to tariffs, and potential trade quota agreements may bring new variables [23][24]. - **Logic Analysis**: The Fed's interest rate cut expectation in September is rising, but the market is more worried about recession. The domestic consumption growth is limited, and the supply pressure is increasing [24]. - **Trading Strategy**: The stainless steel price will maintain a wide - range shock. Wait and see for arbitrage [24]. Industrial Silicon - **Market Review**: The industrial silicon futures main contract closed at 8410 yuan per ton, up 1.58%. The spot price was stable [26]. - **Important Information**: A 100,000 - ton industrial silicon project in Karamay is under investment promotion [26]. - **Logic Analysis**: The supply and demand of industrial silicon remain in a tight - balance state. The price increase space is greater than the decrease space. The futures may continue to correct, and buying can be considered near the August low [26]. - **Trading Strategy**: There may be a short - term correction, buy after a full correction. Sell out - of - the - money put options and participate in the reverse arbitrage of 11 and 12 contracts [27][28]. Polysilicon - **Market Review**: The polysilicon futures main contract closed at 53,520 yuan per ton, down 0.73%. The spot prices of some types of polysilicon decreased [30]. - **Important Information**: The installed capacity of photovoltaic power in the US in the first half of 2025 accounted for 75% of the new power installed capacity [30]. - **Logic Analysis**: The demand for polysilicon in September is about 116,000 tons, and the production is expected to be around 130,000 tons. The long - term price trend is upward, but the short - term may correct [30][31]. - **Trading Strategy**: Participate in the correction band with a light position and short - term, and participate in long positions after the correction stabilizes. Conduct reverse arbitrage of 2511 and 2512 contracts and buy a wide - straddle option for profit - taking [31]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market Review**: The main 2511 contract dropped to 72,900 yuan per ton, and the spot prices of electric and industrial lithium carbonate remained unchanged [34]. - **Important Information**: The China Association of Automobile Manufacturers plans to establish a new energy vehicle battery branch; CATL launched a new battery technology; the export of new energy passenger vehicles in August increased year - on - year [35]. - **Logic Analysis**: The market interprets that CATL may resume production early, and the long - term trend will return to the logic of oversupply [36]. - **Trading Strategy**: Adopt a bearish approach for single - side trading. Wait and see for arbitrage and sell out - of - the - money call options [37]. Tin - **Market Review**: The Shanghai tin 2510 contract closed at 269,040 yuan per ton, down 0.28%. The spot market trading was okay, but the market was skeptical about short - term consumption improvement [38]. - **Important Information**: The US non - farm employment was revised down [38]. - **Logic Analysis**: The poor US non - farm data led to a weak trend of tin. The supply of tin ore is tight, and the demand is expected to recover late. Pay attention to the resumption of production in Myanmar and other factors [38]. - **Trading Strategy**: The tin price may be weak and volatile. Wait and see for options [39].