Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that London gold is currently trading above $4311.85, with a slight increase of 0.32% to $4315.99 per ounce, showing a short-term upward trend [1][2] - The highest price reached was $4342.05 per ounce, while the lowest was $4300.39 per ounce, suggesting volatility within a defined range [1] - The recent trading behavior of London gold is supported by a stable foundation at the $4300 level, which is seen as a key support level for potential rebounds [2] Group 2 - The U.S. non-farm payrolls decreased by 105,000 in October, primarily due to the termination of federal government furlough plans, with a modest growth of 57,000 jobs even when excluding federal sectors [1] - In November, non-farm payrolls grew at a similar pace (+64,000), but the unemployment rate rose to 4.6%, marking a new high since the end of the pandemic [1] - Retail sales in November showed no year-over-year growth, indicating a stagnation in consumer spending [1] - A report from Goldman Sachs led by Lizzie Dove highlights a decline in consumer trends in cities like Las Vegas, reminiscent of early signs of economic recession [1]

Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic said he thought the economy was no longer in danger of a sharp rise in the unemployment rate that might spur a recession. ...

Core Viewpoint - Investors should reconsider their expectations regarding interest rate cuts, as further cuts may indicate a deteriorating economic situation rather than a positive development [2][3]. Group 1: Federal Reserve Actions - The Federal Reserve announced its third interest rate cut of the year, interpreted as a measure to prevent a collapse in the labor market [2]. - Claudia Sahm, a former Fed economist, suggests that more rate cuts could signal economic weakness, contrary to Wall Street's typical positive reaction to such cuts [2][3]. - Sahm expects that any future policy actions will come with a higher threshold for implementation due to persistent core inflation at 2.8%, above the Fed's 2% target, and rising unemployment [3]. Group 2: Labor Market Signals - The unemployment rate has risen for three consecutive months, and hiring has slowed to levels that could exert upward pressure on unemployment [6]. - Despite the rising unemployment rate, there has not been a significant surge in layoffs, which Sahm warns makes relying on initial unemployment claims as a labor market risk indicator dangerous [7]. - Sahm emphasizes that waiting too long to act on worsening labor market conditions could be detrimental [8]. Group 3: Future Outlook - Sahm anticipates that Powell will keep the possibility of further easing on the table but will stress that any additional cuts require stronger justification [9]. - If Powell indicates that the federal funds rate is nearing neutral levels, it would suggest a high threshold for further cuts, which could be interpreted as a hawkish stance [10]. - The upcoming employment report will be critical, as premature declarations of victory or an end to the rate-cutting cycle could put Powell in a difficult position [10].

2025年12⽉15⽇星期⼀，美国纽约证券交易所（NYSE）交易⼤厅内，彭博500⾮必需消费品指数（剔除亚⻢逊和 特斯拉）总回报图表。2025年的最后⼀个完整交易周以股市下跌、债市上涨开局，华尔街正密切关注将影响美联 储利率前景的关键经济数据。 摄影： Michael Nagle/ 彭博社 作者：莎拉·霍尔德和瑞秋·刘易斯-克⾥斯基 2025年12⽉16⽇上午6:28（GMT+8） 节省 翻译 经济学 | Big Take播客 2025年的经济预警信号对2026年意味着什么 今⽇热点话题：全年就业市场、消费者信⼼、⼈⼯智能和通货膨胀都发出了经济预警 信号——这对 2026 年意味着什么？ 不错过任何⼀期节⽬。⽴即收听《 The Big Take 》每⽇播客。 ⼤观点 2025年的经济困境对2026年意味着什么 18:43 全年，就业市场、消费者信⼼、⼈⼯智能和通货膨胀都发出了经济衰退的警 告信号——但2025年成功避免了经济衰退。 在今天的《Big Take》播客节⽬中，主持⼈ Sarah Holder 与彭博社的 Stacey Vanek Smith 和穆迪分析公司的 Mark Zandi 进⾏了对话，探讨 ...

Core Viewpoint - Investors should reconsider their expectations regarding interest rate cuts, as further cuts may indicate a deteriorating economic situation rather than a positive development [2][3]. Group 1: Federal Reserve Actions - The Federal Reserve announced its third interest rate cut of the year, interpreted as a measure to prevent a collapse in the labor market [2]. - Claudia Sahm, a former Fed economist, suggests that if the Fed continues to cut rates, it may signal underlying economic issues [2][3]. - The core inflation rate remains stubbornly at 2.8%, above the Fed's 2% target, while unemployment rates are rising, complicating the Fed's dual mandate [3][4]. Group 2: Labor Market Concerns - Sahm emphasizes the potential vulnerabilities in the labor market, noting that the unemployment rate has risen for three consecutive months and hiring has slowed to levels that could increase unemployment [6]. - Initial jobless claims are considered a lagging indicator, meaning they often spike after a recession has begun, making them unreliable for predicting future labor market conditions [6][7]. Group 3: Future Policy Implications - There is a risk that the Fed may wait too long to act, which could lead to missed opportunities for timely intervention [7]. - Sahm anticipates that Powell will keep the possibility of further easing on the table but will stress that any additional cuts require strong justification [8]. - The upcoming employment report could significantly influence Powell's decisions, as premature announcements regarding rate cuts could put him in a difficult position [9].

冠通期货研究报告-- 宏观与大宗商品周报 市场综述 最近一周，海外聚焦美联储12月FOMC会议，国内瞩目中央经济工作会议。海外，12月FOMC会议如期降息25bp，点阵图彰显出美联 储官员内部的分歧，市场强化宽松预期，美债利率近弱远强，美元指数承压下行。国内，中央经济工作会议召开，肯定2025年的不平 凡，定调2026年的继续宽松，明确八大重点工作。11月宏观经济数据表现平平，工业转弱，投资降速，消费降低，出口强劲，物价分 化，信贷疲软。资本市场投资者态度谨慎，波动率VIX指数窄幅波动，风险资产涨跌互现，全球股市与大宗商品跌多涨少，A股走势分 化，BDI指数大幅回落。大宗商品分化加剧，贵金属与有色强势上扬，油价延续弱势拖累能化板块，地产的加剧恶化与政策的相对稳健， 令黑色系大幅下挫领跌商品。 国内债市涨跌互现近强远弱、股指震荡分化，商品大类板块涨跌互现多数收跌；股市震荡分化，成长型风格表现强于价值型，中 证500反弹幅度最为明显；国内商品大类板块涨跌互现多数收跌，Wind商品指数周度涨跌幅4.4%，10个商品大类板块指数中3个收涨7个 收跌。具体商品大类表现来看，商品期货表现分化加剧，贵金属飙涨超过4%，有色 ...

Core Viewpoint - The president anticipates a resurgence in manufacturing, while economists are predicting a recession and high inflation rates [1] Group 1 - The president's prediction indicates a potential shift in the manufacturing sector, suggesting optimism for growth and revitalization [1] - Economists' forecasts highlight concerns regarding economic stability, emphasizing the risks of recession and inflation that could impact various industries [1]

【环球网财经综合报道】美国知名投行Stifel的首席股票策略师Barry Bannister发布最新报告显示，若美国经济保持良好，标 普500指数有望上涨约9%。然而，一旦经济衰退来袭，该基准指数则可能迅速下跌20%。目前，Stifel评估经济衰退发生的 可能性约为25%。 首先，劳动力市场出现松动迹象，失业率和裁员人数在上升，而新增就业机会减少。这对于一个消费支出占比高达68%的 经济体而言至关重要，若就业市场严重恶化导致消费者紧缩开支，将直接冲击经济根基。 其次，股市估值处于历史高位，令市场在面对冲击时尤为脆弱。报告指出，二战以来经济衰退期间股市回调的中位数为 20%，平均跌幅为23%。班尼斯特警告称："市盈率本身并不重要……直到它成为唯一重要的指标，而标准普尔500指数又 太贵了。"数据显示，当前标普500指数的股票风险溢价已接近上世纪90年代末互联网泡沫时期的水平。 此外，市场的投机情绪已在降温。班尼斯特用作投机偏好指标的一篮子高波动性股票在过去几个月已大幅下跌，这通常是 市场风险偏好减弱的先行信号。 考虑到上述双向风险，班尼斯特建议投资者在布局潜在上涨的同时，应未雨绸缪地建立对冲头寸。他推荐利用防御 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that if the U.S. economy remains strong through 2026, the S&P 500 index is expected to rise by 9%, but investors should prepare for a potential 20% drop in case of a recession [1] - Stifel estimates a 25% probability of a recession occurring, despite it not being the base case for major Wall Street firms [1] - The labor market shows signs of instability, with rising unemployment and layoffs, which could lead to reduced consumer spending, negatively impacting an economy where 68% of GDP comes from consumer spending [1] Group 2 - The current stock valuations are at historical highs, which may pose challenges for investors, as the median market correction during recessions since World War II has been 20% [1] - Barry Bannister emphasizes that the price-to-earnings ratio becomes crucial when the S&P 500 is perceived as overvalued [2] - High-volatility stocks, such as Palantir and GameStop, have seen significant declines, indicating a potential early warning for a broader market downturn [2] Group 3 - The S&P 500's equity risk premium is nearing levels seen during the late 1990s and early 2000s dot-com bubble, suggesting heightened risk in current valuations [4] - Bannister's fundamental prediction is for the S&P 500 to achieve positive returns by 2026, but he advises establishing hedging positions with defensive stocks [6] - Recommended defensive ETFs include the Consumer Staples Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLP), Invesco S&P 500 Low Volatility ETF (SPLV), JPMorgan Equity Premium Income ETF (JEPI), and iMGP DBi Managed Futures Strategy ETF (DBMF) [6]

Our next guest says today's cut is an insurance cut against a weakening labor market. Let's bring in Claudia Som, chief economist at New Century Adviserss, creator of the SOM rule. Claudia, it's great to see you.Let me just set this up a little bit because we had Jason Ferman earlier saying we shouldn't cut because of inflation and because of the deficit. Those pressures are still too high. Um, obviously others are are more doubbish.They think that we can and should. Explain where you come down on this. >> ...