Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article is that the potential nomination of a new Federal Reserve chairman by Trump may accelerate expectations for interest rate cuts by the Fed, leading to a decline in the US dollar index [10][11] - The US dollar index fell below the 97 mark, reaching a low of 96.9923, marking a decline of over 10% year-to-date [4][10] - Non-US currencies strengthened against the dollar, with the Japanese yen rising nearly 1%, and both the British pound and euro increasing by over 0.5% [5][10] Group 2 - Market speculation suggests that the Fed may cut rates sooner and more significantly than previously anticipated, influenced by Trump's pressure on current Fed Chairman Jerome Powell [10][11] - Traders have increased bets on Fed rate cuts, now expecting a reduction of 66 basis points by year-end, up from 51 basis points the previous week [10] - Potential candidates for the Fed chair position include Kevin Walsh, Kevin Hassett, Scott Bessenet, David Malpass, and Christopher Waller, with Trump indicating he has several candidates in mind [10][11] Group 3 - The early announcement of a new Fed chair could influence investor expectations regarding interest rate paths, potentially leading to a more dovish outlook [11] - Trump's dissatisfaction with the Fed's current interest rate policy has been vocal, advocating for lower borrowing costs [11][12] - The strategy of announcing a successor early carries risks for both Trump and the prospective chair, as it may attract criticism and scrutiny [11][12]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the potential acceleration of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, driven by speculation surrounding President Trump's possible nomination of a new Fed chair, which has led traders to increase bets on earlier and larger rate cuts [1][9]. Group 1: Dollar Index Movement - The dollar index fell below the 97 mark, reaching a low of 96.9923, marking the lowest level since February 2022, with a year-to-date decline exceeding 10% [2][3]. - Non-US currencies strengthened, with the Japanese yen rising nearly 1% against the dollar, and both the British pound and euro increasing by over 0.5% [5]. Group 2: Market Speculation and Fed Chair Nomination - The decline in the dollar index is attributed to market speculation that the U.S. may cut interest rates sooner and more significantly than previously expected, influenced by Trump's intensified pressure on Fed Chair Jerome Powell [9]. - Traders have increased their bets on Fed rate cuts, now anticipating a reduction of 66 basis points by the end of the year, up from 51 basis points the previous weekend [9]. Group 3: Potential Candidates for Fed Chair - Trump is reportedly considering candidates such as former Fed governor Kevin Walsh and National Economic Council director Kevin Hassett, with others including former World Bank president David Malpass and Fed governor Christopher Waller [10]. - The new Fed chair is not expected to take office until May 2026, making an announcement this summer or fall significantly earlier than the traditional transition period [10]. Group 4: Implications of Early Announcement - An early announcement of a new Fed chair could influence investor expectations regarding potential interest rate paths, akin to a backseat driver attempting to steer monetary policy before Powell's term ends [10]. - Trump's dissatisfaction with the Fed's current stance on interest rates has been vocal, advocating for cuts to lower government borrowing costs [10]. Group 5: Risks and Challenges - Early nomination could pose risks for both the president and the prospective chair, as the latter may face criticism for opposing the current Fed stance or anger Trump by maintaining it [11]. - Economic experts suggest that the sooner Trump announces a successor, the more scrutiny the candidate will face, potentially jeopardizing their chances of taking over from Powell [11].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights the escalation of the trade war initiated by President Trump, proposing a 50% tariff on the EU starting June 1, which has reignited concerns about the impact of tariffs on the global economy and trade [1][2] - The US dollar index fell by 0.8% to 99.10, marking a three-week low, with a total weekly decline of 1.9%, the largest since mid-April [1] - The dollar's exchange rate against the Japanese yen dropped by 1% to 142.42, with a cumulative decline of 2.2% for the week, potentially the largest weekly drop since April 7 [1] Group 2 - Market sentiment is negatively affected by a loss of confidence in US policies, with countries reassessing their reliance on the US due to the ongoing trade war [2] - The correlation between the dollar and the stock market has broken down, with both declining simultaneously, indicating that the dollar has not served as a safe-haven asset this year [2] - Investors are increasingly focused on the US's $36 trillion debt and the potential increase in debt from Trump's tax plan, which has passed the House and is set for Senate debate [2]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the recent decline in the US dollar index, influenced by multiple factors, has strengthened the appeal of gold as an investment asset, particularly in the context of rising global uncertainties [4][3]. - The Shanghai Gold ETF (159830) has shown a significant performance, with a year-to-date increase of 27.04%, leading among all commodity gold ETFs in the market [3]. - Recent net inflows into the Shanghai Gold ETF reached 449 million yuan, indicating strong investor interest and positioning it as the top performer among various gold ETFs [3]. Group 2 - Factors contributing to the weakening of the US dollar include tariff policies that disrupt global order, rising concerns over US debt sustainability, and increasing inflation expectations [4]. - The outlook suggests that unless there is a significant policy shift from Trump, the trend of a weaker dollar may continue, making gold a favorable asset under these conditions [4]. - Despite fluctuations in gold prices, central banks globally, including China, are expected to continue purchasing gold, which will support long-term price increases [4].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The Shanghai copper market increased in volume and price, with the price difference on the trading board widening to over 100 yuan, and the spot premium expanding to 175 yuan. The main reason is that domestic copper inventories decreased by 36,900 tons over the weekend, the arrival of goods in the spot market was low, but downstream consumption was fair. The tight spot market drove the price difference between futures and spot to widen. At the same time, the supply of domestic scrap copper is also decreasing, and Sino - US trade tensions are affecting China's scrap copper imports. In March, scrap copper imports decreased by 13% year - on - year, and subsequent imports of scrap copper are expected to continue to decline. Part of the scrap copper consumption will shift to refined copper. Coupled with the transfer of global copper supplies to the COMEX market, the decrease in the supplement of imported refined copper in China will continue to drive domestic inventories to decline, and the domestic spot market will support copper prices. - On the macro - front, after Trump repeatedly pressured Powell to cut interest rates, hedge funds are selling the US dollar on a large scale, and the US dollar index has started a new round of decline, which is positive for base metals. It is expected that copper prices will rise further [7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review and Operation Suggestions - The Shanghai copper market increased in volume and price, with the price difference on the trading board widening to over 100 yuan, and the spot premium expanding to 175 yuan. The main reasons include significant weekend inventory reduction, low arrival of goods in the spot market, good downstream consumption, decreasing scrap copper supply, and the transfer of global copper supplies to the COMEX market. The weakening US dollar also supports copper prices, and it is expected that copper prices will rise further [7]. 3.2 Industry News - The US Forest Service will approve a controversial land swap required for Rio Tinto and BHP to build a copper mine in Arizona. The agency will re - issue the environmental report for the Resolution copper mine project land swap within 60 days and may suspend the land swap if the US Supreme Court agrees to hear a related long - term case [10]. - Sinomine Resource Group plans to start copper production at its Kitumba copper mine in Zambia's Central Province in September 2026. The company plans to invest $560 million in the project and has started the stripping work [10]. - Citi has moderated its short - term bearish view on copper prices, raising its three - month price target to $8,800 per ton from the previous $8,000 per ton. It believes that the "downside risk" in the next three months will be reduced, but its medium - term bearish view remains unchanged due to US tariff policies affecting physical copper consumption and manufacturing activities. Citi estimates the average copper price in this quarter to be $9,000 per ton [10][11].

金价突破3 4 2 0美元，黄金股集体上涨，哈莫尼黄金涨超5%，金田涨超4%。 科技七巨头集体走低。 作 者丨吴斌 孙永乐 编 辑丨和佳 刘巷 黎雨桐 4月2 1日，美股三大指数集体低开，截至2 2时5 0分左右，三大指数均跌超2%。 | 微软(MICROSOFT | 359.940 | -2.13% | | --- | --- | --- | | MSFT.O | | | | 谷歌(ALPHABET). | 149.810 | -2.31% | | GOOG.O | | | | 苹果(APPLE) | 191.730 | -2.67% | | AAPL.O | | | | 脸书(META PLATF | 483.562 | -3.57% | | META.O | | | | 亚马逊(AMAZON) | 166.010 | -3.82% | | AMZN.O | | | | 英伟达(NVIDIA) | 95.698 | -5.71% | | NVDA.O | | | | 特斯拉(TESLA) | 224.824 | -6.86% | | TSLA.O | | | 特斯拉大 跌超6%，盘中一度跌超7%。 | < ...

作 者丨林秋彤 编 辑丨肖嘉 图 源丨摄图网 近期，受美国"对等关税"政策影响，全球金融市场震荡，不确定性显著增强。 2 1世纪经济报道记者注意到，在岸和离岸人民币对美元汇率先是短线走低，释放贬值压力后 转而回调，目前均收复7 . 3元关口。截至记者发稿，在岸人民币对美元报7 . 2 9 2 6元，离岸人民 币对美元报7 . 2 8 1 3元。 与 此 同 时 ， 美 元 指 数 持 续 承 压 。 Wi n d 数 据 显 示 ， 4 月 11 日 美 元 指 数 已 跌 破 1 0 0 ， 日 内 跌 幅 达 1 . 1 4％，最新报9 9 . 7 9 0 6。而此前自2 0 2 4年11月6日起，美元指数保持在1 0 5以上的高位已持 续了近半年。 | < w | 美元指数 ರ | | --- | --- | | USDX.FX | | | 99.7690 前收 | | | -1.1682 -1.16% 卖出 | 99.7690 买入 99.7690 | | 最高 今年来 | -8.03% 20 日 -3.82% | | 最低 99.0086 | 10 日 | | 时间 23:54 涨跌 | -1.05 ...