Core Viewpoint - The appreciation of the Renminbi (RMB) against the US dollar has led to negative returns on US dollar deposits, impacting individuals' investment decisions and costs for families with students studying abroad [4][5][6]. Exchange Rate Trends - The offshore RMB has appreciated against the US dollar, surpassing the 7 mark for the first time in nearly 15 months, with a maximum rate of 6.9941 [4]. - As of December 31, 2024, the offshore RMB exchange rate was 7.3338, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 4.63% [4]. Impact on Investments - The significant appreciation of the RMB has resulted in negative returns for US dollar deposits. For instance, an individual who deposited 8,400 USD at a 2.8% interest rate earned 254.8 USD, but the RMB equivalent decreased by 1,071 RMB compared to the beginning of the year [5]. - Another individual holding US Treasury bonds with a 5% yield saw their returns diminish when converted to RMB, yielding only 6,710 RMB, which is slightly above the return from a one-year RMB fixed deposit [5]. Cost Implications for Families - The appreciation of the RMB has reduced the cost of studying abroad for families. For example, a family preparing to pay tuition found that the exchange rate had improved, saving them over 17,000 RMB compared to earlier in the year [6]. Economic Factors Influencing Exchange Rates - The continuous appreciation of the RMB is attributed to several factors, including an expanding trade surplus, increased demand for RMB due to export companies needing to settle accounts, and a weakening US dollar index, which has declined by 9.74% this year [7]. - The euro, pound, and Australian dollar have all appreciated against the US dollar, indicating a broader trend of dollar depreciation [7]. Future Outlook - Experts suggest that the current period is a favorable time for currency exchange for families with immediate needs, although the long-term outlook for the RMB will depend on economic fundamentals and monetary policies from central banks, including the Federal Reserve [7].

文/中金大类资产：李昭，杨晓卿 点击小程序查看报告原文 资料来源：Wind，中金公司研究部 其次是美元信誉下降。 疫情后美国财政赤字率升至6%左右，远高于疫情前中枢，国家债务快速积累，导致债务风险上升。此外，近期美国总统特朗普对 美联储决策的干预增加，现任美联储主席鲍威尔将于2026年5月届满卸任，特朗普即将提名新一任美联储主席，投资者担忧美联储独立性下降。财政与货 币因素叠加，让投资者对美元体系与美元资产的信心下降，导致美元进入贬值周期，今年美元指数已经下跌10%左右。黄金具有货币属性，是现行美元体 系的替代品，在美元信用分裂的过程中受益。 图表：美元指数从2025年初开启贬值周期 资料来源：Wind，中金公司研究部 为何黄金大幅上涨？ 近期黄金价格一度冲破4500美元/盎司，再创历史新高，背后是三重因素支撑： 首先是美联储重启宽松周期。 在维持政策利率水平9个月不变之后，美联 储今年9月重启降息，已经连续降息三次各25bp，且宣布12月开始购买短端国债，扩大央行资产负债表，向市场投放流动性。进入2026年，美联储的前瞻 指引显示明年可能仍会继续降息。美联储货币大方向上趋于宽松，支持黄金表现。 图表：美联储 ...

刚刚，市场爆出一声惊雷。 离岸人民币兑美元汇率，猛地一举冲破7.0大关！最高飙到了6.9968。 记住这个时刻：这是自2024年以来，人民币汇率第一次回到"6时代"。 上一次看到这个数字，还是在遥远的2023年5月。整整两年零七个月的等待，人民币终于扬眉吐气，杀 回来了！ 这意味着什么？最直接的感受：你的钱，更值钱了。 简单算笔账：就在几个月前，你用100万人民币，大概只能换到13.46万美元。 但现在，同样是100万人民币，你可以换到14.29万美元！ 里外里，多出来8322美元，按现在汇率换算，差不多是6万人民币！ 如果你最近正打算送孩子去美国留学，或者计划全家来趟欧美游，现在去换汇，跟你半年前去换，感受 绝对是冰火两重天。晚换几个月，学费或旅费可能直接省出一台高档轿车。 真应了那句话：选择比努力重要。 timing（时机）就是一切。 1. 升值风暴，从哪刮起？ 很多人懵了：人民币怎么突然间就强得"可怕"？ 原因，得从内外两个拳头说起。 第一拳，打的是外部环境。根源，还是那个"漂亮国"。 美国经济最近有点"虚"。数据疲软，债务风险的红灯一闪一闪，美联储撑不住了，从9月份开始，扭头 进入了降息通道。12月， ...

大家好，欢迎回到《美股笔记》。今天是2025年12月24日，周三（平安夜前夕）。 美股在平安夜前的半个交易日里，像"蜗牛赛跑"一样，慢慢悠悠地挪出了历史新高。和昨天不同，这次 涨势扩散到全市场，迎来普涨行情！ 在表面繁荣之下，一股更深刻而矛盾的力量正在主导市场：极低的波动率指数（VIX）预示着异常平 静，而高度集中的财富结构正在让股市与经济基本面渐行渐远。 很多人在恐慌估值见顶，很多人在担心成交量萎缩。但真相往往藏在这些表象之下。今天，我们不只聊 股票，聊聊这个疯狂市场背后的底层生存法则。 一、标普"创新高"：这不是FOMO，是慢性逼空 上周美国初请失业金回落至21.4万人，低于预期；续请虽小升，但整体劳动力市场韧性十足，企业裁员 低位。VIX恐慌指数跌至13-14的历史低区，市场平静、风险偏好高涨。 这种环境下，高Beta股（如NVDA、AMD、META）最容易被资金抱团，无脑做多。所以大盘处于高位 横盘或缓慢爬升阶段，任何回调都浅浅的，很快被买盘拉起。 这几天标普日内涨幅不大，但像蜗牛一样稳稳前进，今天终于创出历史新高！交投清淡不是问题，因为 在感恩节那周缩量暴拉的时候我们也说过：缩量上涨不是看空信号。 ...

来源：郑经 简单说,美元最近像是个过气的明星,有点黯淡。 今年美联储降了三次息,美元指数跌破了90,年内 跌了超过8%。大家对他的热情,肉眼可见地降 温。 1. 经济基本盘在好转:咱们前三季度GDP增速稳在 5%以上,出口连续正增长,尤其像新能源汽车、 锂电池这些"新东西"出口很猛。这是支撑汇率的 底气。 2. 年底"结汇潮"汹涌:每年四季度,外贸企业都 要把赚的美元换成人民币(结汇)。今年大家预期 人民币升值,更急着换,形成"越涨越换,越换越 涨"的循环。市场里等着换回人民币的美元,是个 不小的数字。 3. 中美经济周期"错位"了:用个简单比喻,美国 经济在"踩刹车",而我们在艰难"爬坡过 坎"后,开始"轻踩油门"了。一边在挤泡沫,另 一边在攒后劲。货币强弱,说到底就是国力强弱的 镜子。 为啥会这样? 几个原因: 1. 美国经济有点"虚":最直观的是就业,失业率 升到了4.6%,新增就业人数断崖式下跌。这说明企 业收缩,消费乏力,经济在减速。 2. 政治开始"指挥"央行:特朗普放话要找个听话 的美联储主席。一旦央行失去独立性,印钞就变成 了政治工具,大家对美元的信任自然会打折扣。一 个信用基石松动了的货币, ...

Exchange Rate Trends - The RMB to USD exchange rate appreciated by 4% in 2025, while the USD index fell by 9.7%, indicating that the depreciation of the USD is a primary driver of the RMB's strength against the USD[2] - As of December 25, 2025, the offshore RMB to USD exchange rate broke 7.0, with the onshore rate close to the same threshold[10] Factors Driving RMB Appreciation - Four main factors are driving the RMB's appreciation against the USD: the weakening USD index, a strong Chinese stock market, increased demand for currency settlement by export enterprises, and the People's Bank of China's (PBOC) guidance for a reasonable appreciation of the RMB against the USD[2] - The PBOC has utilized a counter-cyclical factor to stabilize the RMB against a basket of currencies, leading to a controlled appreciation against the USD[14] Impact on Exports - Concerns exist that the RMB's appreciation against the USD may negatively impact Chinese exports; however, the actual effective exchange rate against a basket of currencies is more critical for export performance[3] - Despite the nominal appreciation of the RMB against the USD, the nominal effective exchange rate has decreased by 3.5%, indicating a competitive pricing advantage for Chinese goods in international markets[2] Future Outlook - The RMB is expected to maintain a strong trend against the USD in 2026, with 6.8 identified as a potential key level, although there may be risks of short-term corrections[4] - Export enterprises are advised to focus on their core business and utilize foreign exchange hedging strategies to mitigate risks associated with exchange rate fluctuations[4] Risks - Potential risks include unexpected external shocks and an accelerated appreciation of the RMB beyond expectations, which could impact corporate operations and financial markets[5]

证券研究报告 | 宏观点评 人民币升值的原因、展望及影响 事件描述 近期人民币汇率出现升值趋势。自 11 月 24 日至 12 月 23 日这一个月来，人 民币兑美元升值幅度为 1.2%。在 4 月份美国关税战的冲击过后，人民币一直 处于升值趋势，目前已经逼近"7"关口。 事件点评 人民币缘何升值？我们认为推动人民币升值的主要因素有以下几点：第一，美 元贬值导致的人民币被动升值。第二，中国的出口强劲，支撑人民币升值。第 三，中国货币政策相对克制。 人民币汇率未来的趋势是什么？我们认为人民币升值的趋势有望持续。首先， 从内生动力来看，中美利差有望继续缩窄，给人民币汇率以升值动力。其次， 从外部形势来看，中国巨大的贸易顺差也客观上要求人民币升值。但升值将会 是缓慢的、逐步的升值趋势，而非快速大幅升值。 人民币升值有何影响？第一，有利于增强中国资产的吸引力。第二，对于出口 企业相对不利，对于进口企业则利好。 [Table_Invest] 宏观点评 日期： 2025.12.25 [Table_Author] 分析师 尤春野 登记编码：S0950523100001 ：021-61102508 ：youchunye1@w ...

"我的好几个同事、同学，今年买A股收益率普遍很不错，有20%、30%的，还有50%以上的，感觉我买了 美国国债错过了一个亿。"李敏调侃自己说。 不过，好消息是，对留学家庭来说，人民币兑美元升值降低了留学成本。郭瑛（化名）的孩子今年8月刚 去美国读研，六七月份的时候换汇成本还要7.18到7.2。"马上要缴下学期的学费了，还有孩子的生活费也 要提早准备。我刚才查了一下，现在换汇成本是7.0288，如果换10万美元，跟六七月份比可以节省人民币 1.7万元左右。" 值得注意的是，自特朗普再次上台以来，美元指数大幅下跌，意味着美元对全球主要货币出现大幅贬值。 每日经济新闻消息，12月25日，离岸人民币兑美元汇率升破7.0大关。 | 美元兑中国离岸人民币 FX USDCNH 國外汇 ■ Level1基础行情 | | | | | 4 添加自选 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 6.997542 -0.0214 -0.3000% | | | | | | | 交易中 12-25 10:34 北京时间 | | | | | | | 与 中国离岸人民币兑美元 0.1429 +0.00 ...

专题：离岸人民币升破7关口 为2024年以来首次！影响几何？ 热点栏目 自选股 数据中心 行情中心 资金流向 模拟交易 客户端 每经编辑|段炼 12月25日，离岸人民币兑美元汇率升破7.0大关。 | 今开 | | 7.0332 | | 最高 | 7.0391 | 买入价 | | 6.9952 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 昨收 | | 7.0070 | | 最低 | 6.9928 | 卖出价 | | 6.9999 | | 分时 | 日K | | 更多い | | | | 6 高级工具 | | 今年以来，人民币兑美元整体震荡上扬态势。2024年12月31日收盘，离岸人民币兑美元汇率为7.3368。 有人年初存美元，如今倒亏钱 人民币的大幅升值，也使得美元存款成了"负收益"。杭州市民张凯（化名）手头上有1万多美元外汇，今年2月份一部分美元（8400美元）办了13个月的定 期存款，到期利率为2.8%，到期收益254.8美元。如果按目前的汇率计算，本金加利息相当于人民币60596元；而年初的时候，8400美元相当于61629元人 ...

Core Viewpoint - The offshore RMB has strengthened against the USD, breaking the "7" threshold for the first time since September 2024, with the exchange rate reaching 6.9993 as of December 25, 2023 [1] Group 1: Reasons for RMB Strengthening - The offshore RMB has appreciated by 4.6% against the USD this year, with a significant rise since November 21, 2023, when it was around 7.11 [2] - Factors contributing to the RMB's appreciation include reduced external pressures, enhanced internal resilience, precise policy adjustments, and shifting market expectations, particularly due to the Federal Reserve entering a rate-cutting cycle [2][3] - The Chinese economy's resilience, improved economic data, and increased foreign investment in Chinese assets have bolstered the RMB, alongside seasonal demand for currency exchange by enterprises [3] Group 2: Market Dynamics and Predictions - Current market views suggest that the recent appreciation is linked to year-end currency exchange demands, but some analysts argue that it is primarily driven by central bank adjustments and changes in the USD environment [4] - Analysts predict that the trend of a weaker USD will continue into 2026, providing a favorable external environment for the RMB, with expectations of moderate appreciation [3] Group 3: Impacts of RMB Appreciation - The recent RMB appreciation is seen as beneficial for the Chinese stock and bond markets, enhancing the attractiveness of RMB-denominated assets for foreign investors [5] - For export enterprises, the appreciation may reduce exchange profits, while import costs will decrease, suggesting a need for businesses to manage currency risk effectively [6] - The appreciation has led to negative returns for some USD deposits when converted back to RMB, highlighting the impact on individual investors [7][8]