Group 1 - The Federal Reserve announced a 25 basis point rate cut, lowering the target range for the federal funds rate to 4.00% to 4.25%, marking the restart of the easing cycle [2] - The Fed's assessment of the labor market shifted from "labor market remains solid" to "employment growth is slowing," indicating a cautious approach to risk management in the context of the rate cut [2] - The Fed raised its GDP growth forecast for the U.S. for 2025 from 1.4% to 1.6% and for 2026 from 1.6% to 1.8%, while maintaining the inflation level for 2025 and slightly increasing the inflation forecast for 2026 [2] Group 2 - The Fed expressed concerns about inflation, particularly due to potential impacts from the Trump administration's tariff policies, which could lead to a scenario of "stagflation" if inflation rises uncontrollably [3] - In the event of significant economic deterioration, such as a sharp rise in unemployment or a stock market crash, the Fed may consider aggressive measures, including a potential 50 basis point rate cut [3] - If the U.S. economy achieves a soft landing, the Fed may adopt a more aggressive easing approach, potentially exceeding the projected one rate cut in 2026, influenced by the upcoming midterm elections [3] Group 3 - The expectation of continued monetary easing by the Fed is a key factor driving gold prices higher, alongside concerns about the credibility of the U.S. dollar and ongoing geopolitical risks [4] - Geopolitical tensions, such as the Israel-Gaza situation and the ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict, are contributing to market uncertainty and supporting gold prices [4] - Technical indicators suggest that gold prices may continue to rise, with the potential to challenge the $3700 mark, indicating that the bull market for gold is not yet over [4]

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Core View - The medium to long - term trend of precious metals may be bullish. In the short - term, the weekly lines of London gold and silver continue to close with positive candles, indicating that the strong pattern is expected to continue. However, short - term profit - taking pressure after the interest rate cut expectation materializes should be guarded against. For London gold, the support levels are 3650 and 3600, and the resistance levels are 3700 and 3800. For London silver, the support levels are 42.3 and 41.5, and the upper target is moved up to the 44 - 45 area. The trading strategy is to buy on dips, and those who already hold long positions should hold them cautiously [4] Summary by Related Catalogs Market Review - On Tuesday, precious metal prices maintained a volatile and bullish pattern, with gold hitting a new high, reaching 3700 during the session, due to a sharp decline in the US dollar index and a fall in US Treasury yields. European and American stocks generally declined, and the VIX index rose. The COMEX gold 2512 contract closed at $3727.5 per ounce, up 0.23%; the US silver 2512 contract closed at $42.88 per ounce, down 0.19%. The SHFE gold 2510 main contract closed at 842.08 yuan per gram, up 1.14%; the SHFE silver 2510 contract closed at 10108 yuan per kilogram, up 0.8%. US retail sales in August increased by 0.6% month - on - month, exceeding expectations for three consecutive months, and real retail sales increased for 11 consecutive months, causing a slight adjustment in precious metals [2] Interest Rate Cut Expectations and Fund Holdings - The expectation of an interest rate cut within the year has slightly increased. Traders expect the Fed to cut interest rates three times this year, and a 25 - basis - point cut in September is highly likely. According to CME's "FedWatch" data, the probability of the Fed keeping interest rates unchanged in September is 0%, the probability of a 25 - basis - point cut is 96.1%, and the probability of a 50 - basis - point cut is 3.9%. The SPDR Gold ETF's holdings increased by 3.14 tons to 979.95 tons; the iShares Silver ETF's holdings increased by 64.94 tons to 15217.84 tons. The SHFE silver inventory decreased by 12.2 tons to 1231.3 tons, and the SGX silver inventory increased by 4.1 tons to 1252.4 tons in the week ending September 12 [2][3] This Week's Focus - This week's data is generally light. The key events include the Fed FOMC's announcement of the interest rate decision and economic outlook summary at 02:00 on Thursday, and Fed Chairman Powell's press conference on monetary policy at 2:30. The Bank of England will announce its interest rate decision and meeting minutes at 19:00 on Thursday, and the Bank of Japan will announce its interest rate decision on Friday. US President Trump will make a state visit to the UK [3] Price Table - The latest prices and daily changes of SHFE gold and silver main contracts, SGX gold and silver TD, and CME gold and silver main contracts are provided, along with the daily price changes and percentage changes [6] Inventory and Position Table - Information on the latest prices, daily changes, and daily percentage changes of SHFE and CME gold and silver inventories and positions, as well as SPDR gold and SLV silver ETF holdings, is presented [17][19] Stock, Bond, and Commodity Summary - The data of the US dollar index, US dollar - to - RMB exchange rate, Dow Jones Industrial Average, WTI crude oil spot, LmeS copper 03, 10 - year US Treasury yield, 10 - year US real interest rate, and 10 - 2 - year US Treasury yield spread are given, including their latest values, daily changes, and daily percentage changes [24]

Core Viewpoint - The market's expectation for the Federal Reserve to restart the interest rate cut cycle in 2025 is rising, driven by concerns over the U.S. deficit exceeding 6% of GDP and debt repayment pressures, which have led analysts to suggest reducing U.S. Treasury holdings. However, this shift in expectation is now propelling U.S. Treasuries to outperform in the global sovereign bond market, ranking first in yields [1]. Group 1 - In 2025, the return rate of U.S. Treasuries, measured in local currency, is projected to reach 5.8%, making it the highest among the 15 major bond markets globally [3]. - Despite the significant yield advantage of U.S. Treasuries over other global sovereign bonds, the yield has dropped to a three-year low [3]. - The U.S. dollar index has declined by approximately 3% since the beginning of the year, allowing investors in overseas sovereign bonds to benefit from additional returns due to currency conversion, making the apparent returns from overseas assets higher than those from U.S. Treasuries [3]. Group 2 - Traders expect the Federal Reserve to cut rates three times by the end of the year, with the first cut likely occurring during the upcoming meeting on Wednesday [3]. - The yield advantage of U.S. Treasuries over other global sovereign bonds has narrowed from over 200 basis points in January to 120 basis points [3]. - Due to the depreciation of the dollar, Italian government bonds have emerged as the best-performing major bond market in 2025, with actual returns for dollar investors reaching 16%, while Spanish government bonds yielded 15% [3].

Core Viewpoint - UBS significantly raises its gold price forecast, citing expectations of Federal Reserve easing, a weaker dollar, and geopolitical risks as factors that indicate the gold bull market is far from over [1] Price Forecast - UBS has increased its gold price target for the end of 2025 by $300 to $3,800 per ounce and raised its mid-2026 forecast by $200 to $3,900 per ounce [1] - The gold market has shown strong upward momentum, reaching a historical high of $3,673.95 per ounce recently, with a year-to-date increase of over 39% [1] Investment Demand - UBS's analysis indicates a rapid increase in investment demand for gold, predicting that total holdings in gold exchange-traded funds (ETFs) will exceed 3,900 tons by the end of 2025, nearing the historical record of 3,915 tons set in October 2020 [2] Macro Environment - The core logic behind UBS's bullish outlook on gold is based on macroeconomic conditions, anticipating that the Federal Reserve will enter a rate-cutting cycle, which would weaken the dollar and enhance the appeal of gold priced in dollars [3] - Geopolitical risks and the policy divergence between the U.S. government and the Federal Reserve are key factors boosting gold's safe-haven value [3] - The report highlights President Trump's preference for low interest rates as a supportive factor for gold prices, as gold traditionally performs well in low-rate environments [3] Central Bank Demand - Global central bank demand for gold is expected to remain strong, with UBS forecasting purchases to be between 900 to 950 tons this year, slightly below last year's record of over 1,000 tons, indicating continued confidence in gold as a reserve asset [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Although the market adjusted last week, the core drivers of the upward trend, such as the repair of market expectations, the improvement of risk appetite, and the increase in stock market allocation willingness brought about by long - term capital market reforms, have not changed substantially, so the market is unlikely to experience a trend - like callback [2] - The news of the former chairman of the CSRC being investigated indicates that the improvement of the capital market system is still ongoing, and the lower - than - expected US non - farm payrolls have further increased the expectation of Fed easing, which is conducive to sentiment repair [2] - The policy aims to anchor the market value and prevent the breeding of financial risks under disorderly speculation. Before the improvement of corporate earnings becomes more obvious, it is more difficult to boost valuations. The market is more likely to fluctuate in a moderately strong way, and the previous unilateral bull - market trend is less likely [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Review and Outlook - Last week, the market experienced its first significant shock since the current upward trend, with most major indexes falling except for the ChiNext Index. In terms of sectors, National Defense and Military Industry, Computer, and Non - Banking Finance led the decline, with National Defense and Military Industry falling by over 10%; Power Equipment, Comprehensive, and Non - Ferrous Metals led the gains [1] - The direct trigger for the market decline may be the foreign media reports about regulatory risk - prevention statements. The adjustment of the market under the previous sentiment - driven and valuation - boosting market was mainly affected by internal and external factors, with internal factors being the main ones, such as the weakening of pro - growth policies and strengthened supervision [1] - Overseas, the breakthrough of precious metals and the rise of bond yields last week increased overseas risk expectations, which also disturbed the performance of domestic indexes [1] Strategy Recommendations - **Short - term Strategy**: The intraday trading frequency can refer to the 1 - minute and 5 - minute K - line charts. The stop - loss and take - profit levels for IF, IH, IC, and IM can be set at 76 points/95 points, 58 points/31 points, 66 points/121 points, and 84 points/142 points respectively [4] - **Trend Strategy**: Adopt the idea of going long after a pullback. It is expected that the core operating range of the IF2509 main contract is between 4323 and 4546 points; the IH2509 main contract is between 2867 and 3000 points; the IC2509 main contract is between 6692 and 7140 points; the IM2509 main contract is between 6973 and 7443 points [4] - **Cross - variety Strategy**: Mainly stay on the sidelines [5] Spot Market Review - **Global Stock Indexes**: Last week, the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.32%, the S&P 500 rose 0.33%, and the Nasdaq rose 1.14%. In Europe, the UK's FTSE 100 rose 0.23%, Germany's DAX fell 1.28%, and France's CAC40 fell 0.38%. In the Asia - Pacific market, the Nikkei 225 rose 0.7% and the Hang Seng Index rose 1.36% [8] - **Domestic Main Indexes**: Most domestic main indexes fell last week, with only the ChiNext Index rising [1][8] Index Futures Market Review - **Contract Performance**: Last week, the IM main contract of index futures had the largest decline, and the IC main contract had the largest amplitude. Both the trading volume and open interest of index futures declined [11] - **Basis and Cross - variety Ratios**: The report also presented the basis (futures - spot) trends of index futures main contracts and the cross - variety ratios of index futures main contracts [16] Index Valuation Tracking - As of August 29, the TTM P/E ratio of the Shanghai Composite Index was 16.54 times, the TTM P/E ratio of the CSI 300 Index was 14.12 times, the TTM P/E ratio of the SSE 50 Index was 11.9 times, the TTM P/E ratio of the CSI 500 Index was 33.72 times, and the TTM P/E ratio of the CSI 1000 Index was 47.35 times [17][18] Market Capital Flow Review - The report presented charts of the margin trading balance in the two markets, the share of newly established equity - biased funds, the decline of capital interest rates last week, and the net capital withdrawal by the central bank last week [19]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Due to the high expectation of Fed easing and the weakening of domestic risk appetite, the price of gold has increased significantly, and the price of silver has fluctuated at a high level. As the September Fed meeting approaches and the dovish expectation of the shadow Fed is high, the price of gold is strong, and the price of silver is still supported by the price of gold [4][6]. - After Trump took office, the world entered a period of extreme turmoil and change. The inflation expectation shifted to the economic recession expectation, making it difficult for the price of gold to fall back. The price of silver still mainly follows the price of gold [10][13]. Summary by Directory 1. Previous Day's Review - Gold: The high expectation of Fed easing led to a significant rise in the price of gold. The three major US stock indexes and European stock indexes all closed down. The yield of US Treasury bonds rose collectively, with the 10 - year Treasury bond yield rising 3.50 basis points to 4.260%. The US dollar index rose 0.66% to 98.32, and the offshore RMB depreciated slightly against the US dollar to 7.1385. COMEX gold futures rose 1.51% to $3599.5 per ounce [4]. - Silver: The high expectation of Fed easing caused the price of silver to fluctuate at a high level. Other market indicators were similar to those of gold, and COMEX silver futures closed flat at $41.73 per ounce [6]. 2. Daily Tips - Gold: The basis was - 3.91, with the spot at a discount to the futures; the inventory of gold futures increased by 447 kilograms to 40191 kilograms; the 20 - day moving average was upward, and the K - line was above the 20 - day moving average; the main net position was long, and the main long position increased [5]. - Silver: The basis was - 27, with the spot at a discount to the futures; the inventory of Shanghai silver futures increased by 8001 kilograms to 1215228 kilograms; the 20 - day moving average was upward, and the K - line was above the 20 - day moving average; the main net position was long, and the main long position increased [6]. 3. Today's Focus - A series of economic data and events need to be focused on, including South Korea's Q2 GDP, Vietnam's August manufacturing PMI, Japan's August service and composite PMI final value, China's August S&P service and composite PMI, etc. Also, speeches by central bank officials such as the European Central Bank President Lagarde and the US St. Louis Fed President Musalem, as well as the Fed's economic beige book and US July JOLTS job openings, are important [15]. 4. Fundamental Data - **Gold** - **Likely positive factors**: Global turmoil with lingering risk - aversion sentiment; significant shadow Fed with rising expectation of interest rate cuts; tense situations in Russia - Ukraine and the Middle East leading to resurgent inflation; impact of tariff concerns [14]. - **Likely negative factors**: Cessation of interest rate cuts and improved economic expectations; European fiscal expansion falling short of expectations with the US standing out again; deterioration of risk appetite; end of the Russia - Ukraine conflict [14]. - **Logic**: After Trump took office, the world entered a period of extreme turmoil and change. The inflation expectation shifted to the economic recession expectation, making it difficult for the price of gold to fall back. The verification between the expected and actual policies of the new US government will continue, and the sentiment of the gold price is high, still prone to rise and hard to fall [10]. - **Silver** - **Likely positive factors**: Similar to those of gold, and the tariff on non - ferrous metals supports the price of silver [14]. - **Likely negative factors**: Similar to those of gold [14]. - **Logic**: After Trump took office, the world entered a period of extreme turmoil and change. The inflation expectation shifted to the economic recession expectation, and the price of silver still mainly follows the price of gold. The concern about tariffs has a stronger impact on the price of silver, and the price of silver is prone to an enlarged increase [13]. 5. Position Data - **Gold**: The long positions of the top 20 holders of Shanghai gold increased by 5.86% to 243,530 on September 2, 2025, compared with September 1. The short positions increased by 4.39% to 70,476, and the net positions increased by 6.47% to 173,054 [31]. - **Silver**: The long positions of the top 20 holders of Shanghai silver increased by 1.57% to 373,101 on September 2, 2025, compared with September 1. The short positions decreased by 1.59% to 274,760, and the net positions increased by 11.59% to 98,341 [33]. - **ETF Positions**: The gold ETF positions continued to increase, and the silver ETF positions increased slightly and were higher than the same period in the past two years [35][38]. - **Warehouse Receipts**: The COMEX gold warehouse receipts increased slightly and remained at a high level, and the Shanghai gold warehouse receipts increased. The Shanghai silver warehouse receipts continued to increase and were higher than the same period last year, and the COMEX silver warehouse receipts continued to increase with renewed tariff concerns [39][41].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Gold: Cautiously bullish [8] - Silver: Cautiously bullish [8] - Arbitrage: Short the gold-silver ratio at high levels [9] - Options: On hold [9] Core Viewpoints - The Fed's easing expectations are intensifying and its independence is being questioned, which is beneficial for the safe-haven premium of gold. Gold prices are expected to show a relatively strong oscillation pattern, with the Au2510 contract oscillating between 780 yuan/gram and 830 yuan/gram [8] - The market is highly enthusiastic about trading easing expectations. Besides its financial attributes, silver may also be traded based on industrial demand, and the gold-silver ratio is expected to narrow. Silver prices are also expected to maintain a relatively strong oscillation pattern, with the Ag2510 contract oscillating between 9500 yuan/kilogram and 10000 yuan/kilogram [8] Market Analysis - Tariffs: Trump said India has proposed to reduce tariffs to zero, but it's too late. Treasury Secretary Bessent said Trump may declare a national housing emergency this autumn, and the plan may include exemptions for building materials. Bessent is confident that the Supreme Court will support Trump's tariff policy [1] - Economic data: The final value of the eurozone's manufacturing PMI in August rose to 50.7 from 49.8 in July, a three-year high and higher than the preliminary value of 50.5, expanding for the first time since mid-2022. Factory output and new order growth reached the fastest in nearly three and a half years [1] - Employment market: The eurozone's unemployment rate in July dropped to 6.2% from 6.3% in June, with the number of unemployed people decreasing by 170,000, matching the record low set in November 2024 [1] Futures Quotes and Trading Volumes - On September 1, 2025, the Shanghai Gold main contract opened at 786.10 yuan/gram and closed at 800.56 yuan/gram, a change of 1.97% from the previous trading day's close. The trading volume was 41,087 lots, and the open interest was 129,725 lots. In the night session, it opened at 799.54 yuan/gram and closed at 801.58 yuan/gram, a 0.13% increase from the afternoon close [2] - On September 1, 2025, the Shanghai Silver main contract opened at 9394.00 yuan/kilogram and closed at 9775.00 yuan/kilogram, a change of 4.14% from the previous trading day's close. The trading volume was 884,674 lots, and the open interest was 294,815 lots. In the night session, it opened at 9775 yuan/kilogram and closed at 9836 yuan/kilogram, a 0.62% increase from the afternoon close [2] US Treasury Yield and Spread Monitoring - On September 1, 2025, the yield of the 10-year US Treasury bond closed at 4.225%, unchanged from the previous trading day. The spread between the 10-year and 2-year bonds was 0.606%, up 0.11 BP from the previous trading day [3] Changes in Positions and Trading Volumes of Gold and Silver on the Shanghai Futures Exchange - On September 1, 2025, on the Au2508 contract, the long positions changed by 0 lots compared to the previous day, and the short positions also changed by 0 lots. The total trading volume of the Shanghai Gold contract on the previous trading day was 495,904 lots, a change of 9.74% from the previous trading day [4] - On the Ag2508 contract, the long positions changed by 2 lots, and the short positions changed by -2 lots. The total trading volume of the silver contract on the previous trading day was 1,516,854 lots, a change of -2.80% from the previous trading day [4] Precious Metal ETF Position Tracking - As of August 30, the gold ETF position was 977.68 tons, up 9.74 tons from the previous trading day. The silver ETF position was 15,310 tons, down 22.59 tons from the previous trading day [5] Precious Metal Arbitrage Tracking - On September 1, 2025, the domestic premium for gold was -20.32 yuan/gram, and the domestic premium for silver was -1028.51 yuan/kilogram [6] - The price ratio of the main contracts of gold and silver on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was about 81.90, a change of 0.15% from the previous trading day. The overseas gold-silver ratio was 87.82, a change of 0.65% from the previous trading day [6] Fundamentals - On September 1, 2025, the trading volume of gold on the Shanghai Gold Exchange's T+d market was 64,412 kilograms, a change of -11.69% from the previous trading day. The trading volume of silver was 653,358 kilograms, a change of -13.90% from the previous trading day. The gold delivery volume was 9880 kilograms, and the silver delivery volume was 20,010 kilograms [7]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report - Due to the high expectation of Fed easing, gold and silver prices have risen. The uncertainty over Trump's dismissal of a Fed governor persists, but the high expectation of Fed easing continues to support the prices of gold and silver. The premium of Shanghai gold has continued to converge, while the premium of Shanghai silver has remained stable. The dovish expectation of the shadow Fed is high, providing support for gold and silver prices [4][6]. Summary by Directory 1. Previous Day's Review - **Gold**: The U.S. three major stock indexes rose slightly, European major stock indexes closed mixed, U.S. bond yields declined across the board, the 10 - year U.S. bond yield fell 2.72 basis points to 4.234%, the U.S. dollar index fell 0.04% to 98.19, the offshore RMB against the U.S. dollar appreciated slightly to 7.1523, and COMEX gold futures rose 0.55% to $3451.80 per ounce [4]. - **Silver**: Similar to gold, the Fed's easing expectation is high, and COMEX silver futures rose 0.22% to $38.69 per ounce [6]. 2. Daily Tips - **Gold**: The basis is - 3.14, with the spot at a discount to the futures, which is bearish; the inventory of gold futures decreased by 12 kilograms to 37503 kilograms, which is bearish; the 20 - day moving average is upward, and the K - line is above the 20 - day moving average, which is bullish; the main net position is long, and the main long position increased, which is bullish [5]. - **Silver**: The basis is - 35, with the spot at a discount to the futures, which is neutral; the inventory of Shanghai silver futures increased by 38165 kilograms to 1127333 kilograms, which is neutral; the 20 - day moving average is upward, and the K - line is above the 20 - day moving average, which is bullish; the main net position is long, and the main long position decreased, which is bullish [6]. 3. Today's Focus - Time TBD: The Bank of Korea announces its interest rate decision; the 2025 Digital Expo, the 9th Asia - Pacific Biomedical Cooperation Summit, the 2025 China International Big Data Industry Expo, the 2025 SUPCON Technology New Product Release and Industrial AI Innovation Development Conference, and the 2025 China Charging Facilities Industry Operation and Service Development Conference - Suzhou Meeting open; the U.S. imposes an additional 25% tariff on India, bringing the total tariff rate to 50% [15]. - 09:30: Bank of Japan审议委员Nakagawa Junko speaks in Yamaguchi Prefecture [15]. - 16:00: ECB Governing Council member Olli Rehn speaks [15]. - 19:30: The ECB releases the minutes of its July monetary policy meeting [15]. - 20:30: The U.S. releases the revised Q2 GDP and the number of initial jobless claims for the week ending August 23 [15]. - 22:00: The U.S. releases the July pending home sales index [15]. - 06:00 the next day: Fed Governor Christopher Waller talks about monetary policy at the Miami Economic Club [15]. 4. Fundamental Data - **Gold**: The logic behind the price movement is that after Trump took office, the world entered a period of extreme turmoil and change, with the inflation expectation shifting to the economic recession expectation, making it difficult for the gold price to fall. The verification between the expected and actual policies of the new U.S. government will continue, and the sentiment for gold is high, making it prone to rise and hard to fall [10]. - **Silver**: Silver prices generally follow gold prices. The concern over tariffs has a stronger impact on silver prices, increasing the risk of a larger increase in silver prices [13]. 5. Position Data - **Gold**: The long position of the top 20 holders of Shanghai gold decreased by 1.79% to 613,969, the short position decreased by 1.44% to 465,492, and the net position decreased by 2.89% to 148,477 [30]. - **Silver**: The long position of the top 20 holders of Shanghai silver decreased by 3.45% to 1,045,510, the short position decreased by 2.63% to 967,544, and the net position decreased by 12.63% to 77,966 [33]. - **ETF Positions**: The position of SPDR Gold ETF increased slightly, while the position of silver ETF decreased slightly but remained higher than the same period in the past two years [35][38]. - **Warehouse Receipts**: The warehouse receipts of Shanghai gold, COMEX gold, Shanghai silver, and COMEX silver all increased slightly. COMEX gold warehouse receipts remained at a high level, and Shanghai silver warehouse receipts were higher than the same period last year [39][40][42].

Core Viewpoint - The USD/JPY currency pair is experiencing upward momentum, approaching the 148.00 level, supported by a slight increase in the US dollar and US Treasury yields, but concerns over the independence of the Federal Reserve and Trump's latest tariff threats are dampening market sentiment, providing support for the safe-haven yen [1]. Technical Overview - A breakout above the 148.00 level is seen as a key trigger for bullish sentiment in USD/JPY, with potential upward movement towards the significant 200-day simple moving average (SMA) just above 149.00, and further buying could lead to attempts to reclaim the psychological level of 150.00 [4]. - Support is identified at the 147.80 level, with a potential decline below this support leading to further drops towards the 147.30 area and ultimately the 147.00 level, which would negate the positive outlook and shift the short-term trend to bearish [5]. Fundamental Overview - Recent economic data includes a 3.0% increase in AUD construction work done, a GfK consumer confidence survey in the Eurozone showing -23.6, and a notable decline in the US MBA mortgage applications by 1.4% [6]. - President Trump's unprecedented order to dismiss Cook shocked investors, leading to initial declines in the dollar, which later rebounded after Cook's commitment to remain in position [6]. - Fed Chairman Jerome Powell's dovish remarks indicated a higher likelihood of rate cuts in the coming months, contributing to a decline in USD/JPY by over 1%, while the Bank of Japan's governor raised concerns about inflation from wage increases, hinting at conditions for further rate hikes [7].

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - **Gold**: Fed personnel changes boost easing expectations, gold tariff news causes price fluctuations. With a new dovish Fed outlook, gold prices are expected to be oscillating and slightly bullish. The premium of Shanghai gold has converged to -2.2 yuan/gram [4]. - **Silver**: Silver prices follow gold prices, showing a short - term decline and then a rebound. With the recovery of risk appetite and the improvement of domestic commodity sentiment, silver prices are expected to be bullish [6]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 前日回顾 (Previous Day's Review) - **Gold**: U.S. stock indexes rose, European indexes were mixed, U.S. bond yields increased, the dollar index rose, and COMEX gold futures rose 0.13% to $3458.2 per ounce. The Fed's personnel change pushed up easing expectations, and the gold tariff news led to price oscillations [4]. - **Silver**: Silver prices followed gold prices, rebounding after a short - term decline. COMEX silver futures rose 0.56% to $38.51 per ounce [6]. 3.2 每日提示 (Daily Tips) - **Gold**: The basis is - 3.38, with the spot at a discount to the futures; the inventory of gold futures remains unchanged at 36045 kg; the 20 - day moving average is upward, and the K - line is above it; the main net position is long, but the main long position decreased [4][5]. - **Silver**: The basis is - 40, with the spot at a discount to the futures; the inventory of Shanghai silver futures increased by 8049 kg to 1158387 kg; the 20 - day moving average is upward, and the K - line is above it; the main net position is long, and the main long position increased [6][7]. 3.3 今日关注 (Today's Focus) - Japan's stock market is closed for "Mountain Day". - At 16:00, Italy's July CPI final value and June trade balance will be released. - China's July M2 and other money supply, January - July social financing scale increment, and new RMB loans may be released [16]. 3.4 基本面数据 (Fundamental Data) - **Gold**: Bullish factors include global turmoil, rising U.S. stagflation expectations, tense situations in Russia - Ukraine and the Middle East, and tariff concerns. Bearish factors involve Trump's new policies, improved U.S. economic expectations, significant interest rate hikes by the Bank of Japan, the end of the Russia - Ukraine conflict, and black swan events [11][15]. - **Silver**: Bullish factors are similar to those of gold, and the tariff on non - ferrous metals supports silver prices. Bearish factors are also similar to those of gold [14][15]. 3.5 持仓数据 (Position Data) - **Gold**: The long position of the top 20 in Shanghai gold increased by 2.86% to 231,526 on August 8 compared to August 7, the short position increased by 0.28% to 61,173, and the net position increased by 3.82% to 170,353 [29]. - **Silver**: The long position of the top 20 in Shanghai silver increased by 1.78% to 353,481 on August 8 compared to August 7, the short position decreased by 3.11% to 261,474, and the net position increased by 18.83% to 92,007 [32].