Group 1: Global Financial Market Overview - The global financial market is currently facing significant turmoil, with the U.S. stock market, Japanese bond market, and Chinese real estate market being highlighted as the three most in need of rescue [1][8] - Japan's recent 20-year government bond auction was notably poor, with a bid-to-cover ratio of only 2.5, the lowest since 2012, and a "tail" spread reaching 1.14, the worst since 1987 [2] - The U.S. bond market also experienced a "black Wednesday," with the 20-year Treasury yield surpassing 5%, marking the second time in history this threshold has been crossed [4][12] Group 2: U.S. Market Dynamics - Moody's downgraded the U.S. sovereign credit rating, citing unsustainable debt levels and a growing deficit, which has led to a loss of investor confidence in U.S. Treasuries [10][12] - The U.S. stock market reacted negatively to the downgrade, with major indices like the Dow Jones dropping over 800 points, reflecting the interconnectedness of the bond and equity markets [4][6] - The U.S. government is projected to increase its debt by an additional $3.8 trillion due to the recent tax cuts proposed by the Trump administration, exacerbating the existing debt crisis [20][21] Group 3: Japanese Debt Situation - Japan's public debt has reached 234.9% of GDP, significantly higher than Greece's 142.2%, indicating a severe fiscal challenge [26] - The Japanese government faces a dilemma between continuing quantitative easing to support bond purchases or tightening monetary policy to combat rising inflation [32] - The recent surge in Japanese bond yields is attributed to the Bank of Japan's reduced bond purchases, leading to concerns about the sustainability of Japan's fiscal situation [28][29] Group 4: Chinese Real Estate Market - China's real estate market is under pressure, with a 0.1% month-on-month decline in residential sales prices and a 4.5% year-on-year decrease, indicating ongoing challenges [7][35] - Goldman Sachs predicts a 40% reduction in new home sales over the next decade, while anticipating a significant increase in second-hand home transactions, which could reshape the housing market dynamics [43][44] - The shift towards a "stock" market for real estate, driven by aging properties and community operations, is expected to create new opportunities in related sectors such as building materials and home renovation [46]

美国金融市场再次出现"股债汇"三杀格局。当地时间5月21日（下同），美股集体跳水，美国国债遭到抛售，收益率大幅飙升，美元指数亦 呈现下跌态势。一般而言，当美股下跌时，投资者会购入美元或者美债避险，三者同步下跌的情况较为少见，这种情况也俗称为"股债 汇"三杀。 当日美股市场回落与美债收益率的上升密切相关，具体看美债市场方面，长期国债成为抛售的"重灾区"。10年期美债收益率5月21日大涨 2.45%，突破4.5%关口，报收于4.600%；30年期美债收益率同日大涨2.62%，报收于5.100%，突破5%关口。此外，当日美国财政部进行的 160亿美元20年期美债中标收益率明显高于市场预期，显示市场对购买新美债"兴趣不足"。 美元方面，白雪分析，美元信用虽然受损但依然存在，驱动本次回调的主因为市场对美国经济放缓的担忧等短期因素。短期内考虑到美国 经济基本面维持韧性、美国通胀或将反弹、美国利率高企等因素，美元指数回调也将是暂时现象，后期仍有反弹可能。 "美债作为全球无风险利率基准，其收益率上行必然会导致风险资产估值承压，这也是美股在高位受到冲击的原因。"东方金诚研究发展部 高级副总监白雪在接受《证券日报》记者采访时表示 ...

美国银行知名策略师哈内特最近将新兴市场称为全球市场中的"下一个牛市"。 全球市场向来牵一发而动全身。此前，穆迪调降美国信用评级仅导致美国"股债汇三杀"一日游，不少华尔街大机构高管开始警示美元资产投资者过于自满的 风险，并认为全球金融系统正在发生一些"更深层次"的事情。 话音刚落，被视为传统避险资产的日债、美债拍售相继遇冷，后者导致美国周三再度遭遇"股债汇三杀"。同时，黄金、比特币价格却升至历史新高。此外， 随着更多投资者选择"卖出美国"交易，分析师认为新兴市场有望开启一轮牛市。 美债、日债吸引力下降的逻辑 周三，美国再度遭遇股债汇三杀：美股三大股指遭遇四月以来最严重抛售、长期美债收益率出现两位数基点单日涨幅、美元指数再现将近50点的大跌单日， 失手关键点位100。其中，美债再度成为大跌的"风暴眼"。当日拍售的20年期美债的最高中标利率达到5.047%，史上第二次超过5%，并录得近6个月来最大 尾部利差，投标倍数也从近六个月平均水平2.57降至2.46。如此惨淡的拍售数据发生在穆迪调降美国信用评级后的首场长债拍售中。本应是避险资产的长期 美债需求遇冷，再度引发了投资者恐慌情绪，带动美股美元同步大跌。 对美国高债 ...

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. financial market experienced significant declines across stocks, bonds, and currencies due to weak demand in the 20-year Treasury auction and concerns over fiscal deficits, leading to the largest single-day drop in major stock indices since April 21 [1][3]. Group 1: Stock Market Performance - The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell by 1.91% to close at 41,860.44 points, the S&P 500 dropped 1.61% to 5,844.61 points, and the Nasdaq Composite decreased by 1.41% to 18,872.64 points [3]. - Major U.S. tech stocks saw declines, with Tesla and Apple dropping over 2%, while Google gained 2.87% [5][6]. - Chinese concept stocks had mixed results, with NIO and Xpeng Motors rising by 16.2% and 13.08% respectively, following better-than-expected earnings reports [8][9]. Group 2: Bond Market Insights - The 20-year Treasury auction showed weak demand, with a high yield of 5.047%, which was about 1 basis point higher than pre-auction trading levels [12]. - Indirect bidders, including governments and fund managers, accounted for 69% of the auction, indicating strong foreign demand despite overall demand being below average [12]. - The yield on the 20-year Treasury rose to 5.127% post-auction, marking the highest level since November 2023, raising concerns about the U.S. budget deficit [12]. Group 3: Commodity Market Movements - Gold prices continued to rebound, with spot gold prices rising above $3,310 per ounce, and COMEX gold futures climbing to $3,317.5 per ounce, reflecting a 1% increase [14]. - In contrast, international oil prices fell, with WTI crude dropping to $61.33 per barrel and Brent crude to $64.66 per barrel [14].

Group 1 - The U.S. stock market experienced significant declines, with the Dow Jones dropping over 800 points, a decrease of 1.91%, influenced by a weak 20-year Treasury auction [2] - The yield on the 20-year U.S. Treasury bond reached a high of 5.127%, while the 30-year bond yield peaked at 5.094%, indicating a sell-off in U.S. government bonds [2] - Bitcoin surged to a historical high of $109,770, surpassing its previous peak of $109,358 on January 20, 2023, driven by regulatory dynamics in the U.S. [4] Group 2 - Gold prices on COMEX rose above $3,300 per ounce for the first time since May 9, 2023, with local gold jewelry prices in Shenzhen reaching around 780 yuan per gram, up from a low of 742 yuan per gram on May 15 [6] - Brand gold jewelry prices exceeded 1,000 yuan per gram, reflecting an increase of nearly 25 yuan compared to the previous day [6] Group 3 - The animated film "Nezha: Birth of the Demon Child" has extended its release until June 30, marking its fourth extension [9] - Meng Yutong and Dong Mingzhu are set to co-host a live stream on May 23, 2023, following Meng's departure from Gree Electric Appliances and her transition to social media [13][16]

受20年期美债拍卖疲软影响，美国遭遇"股债汇三杀"。隔夜美股收盘，道指重挫超800点，大跌1.91%；标普500指数、纳指均跌超1%。美国20年期国债收益率日内 一度冲高至5.127%，30年期国债收益率一度升至5.094%。美元对主要货币亦同步走弱，美元指数跌0.42%。恐慌指数VIX飙涨超15%。 华尔街人士分析称，这确实是一场"糟糕的"拍卖，虽称不上"灾难性"，但糟糕的程度足以让美国长期国债价格明显走低。 美债市场雷声不断。 在美国国债遭遇抛售的同时，比特币大幅飙涨，一度创出历史新高。北京时间5月21日晚间，比特币一度上涨至10.977万美元，超过今年1月20日10.9358万美元的新 高。分析认为，比特币价格持续走高，与美国监管的动态密切相关。 全线杀跌 美东时间5月21日美股盘中，美国20年期国债拍卖遭遇了低迷的需求，导致美债、美股和美元全线杀跌。 截至收盘，道指重挫超800点，大跌1.91%；标普500指数跌1.61%，纳指跌1.41%，均创一个月来的最大跌幅。 美国科技巨头多数下跌，特斯拉跌2.68%、苹果跌2.31%、英伟达跌1.92%、亚马逊跌1.45%、微软跌1.22%、超微半导体跌1.2 ...

中金点睛"本周精选"栏目将带您回顾本周深受读者欢迎的研究报告。 01 策略 Strategy 上次"股债汇三杀"发生了什么？ >>点击图片查看全文<< 特朗普宣布"对等关税"后，美国股、债、汇市场在4月中下旬一度呈现非常罕见的"三杀"局面，标普500最高回撤10%，10年美债利率快速抬升50bp逼 近4.5%，美元指数也一度回落至98。究其原因，除了政策不确定性带来的短期波动和恐慌外（《 大超预期的"对等关税" 》、《 "对等关税"的冲击会 有多大？ 》），市场更为担心的是，"对等关税"除了破坏美国"例外论"和相对优势的同时（大财政、科技优势与资金再平衡，是美国"例外论"的三个 核心支柱，《 美国"例外论"与"东升西落"的内核 》），是否也动摇了全球投资者对美元资产作为长期安全资产的信心和信任感。近期市场有所企 稳，美股甚至已经完全修复此前跌幅，但上述的担忧情绪依然挥之不去。历史上是否出现过类似的情形？发生的背景是什么，最终是如何收场的？本 文中，我们将讨论历史上"股债汇三杀"出现时的共性，以及对当下的启示。 图表：回顾1970年以来10次典型的"股债汇三杀"阶段，我们将触发因素分为滞胀或类滞胀担忧、货币紧缩 ...

文/中金大类资产研究：李昭，杨晓卿， 屈博韬 美国股债汇重现"三杀"，或反映通胀环境与美元周期发生重大变化。"三杀"的本质是美元资产中安全资产（债券与现金）的避险能力下降，难以对冲 风险资产（股票与商品）的回调亏损。在美元资产内部进行资产配置，无法有效分散风险，需警惕美国股债汇"三杀"反复化、长期化的可能性。 美元资产面临困局，美债美元避险能力下降，导致安全资产更为稀缺，有助于提升黄金的配置价值。美股前景不确定性增大，让非美风险资产的吸引 力相对上升，中欧股票可能体现相对韧性。 点击小程序查看报告原文 资产配置视角看美国股债汇"三杀" 4月初美国对等关税落地后，标普500最大回撤达12%，十年期美债利率从4.0%一度冲高至4.5%，美元指数跌破100，股债汇"三杀"引发市场高度关注。 股债汇三杀在美国市场并不多见，首先因为美股牛长熊短，股票大部分时间都在上涨。当股票遭遇负面冲击下跌时，美债与美元作为传统避险资产趋于上 涨，进而避免三杀。长期而严重的美国股债汇三杀集中发生在上世纪70-80年代的"大通胀"时代，例如1976年末开始的三杀，持续时间超过一年。 图表1：历史上的美国长期严重的股债汇"三杀"集中出现在 ...

| | | 大涨背后的裂痕：今夏美国再现股债汇三杀？ 美股连续大涨，市场情绪再度转热，但大涨背后的裂痕已经出现。 当市场焦点从眼前的关税缓解转向减税，夏季美国市场将面临新的"股债汇三杀"风险。 花旗认为特朗普的政策原本是一套组合拳，其中： 也就是说DOGE和关税进展都不顺，而减税推进则愈发带来市场对债务的忧虑，尤其是外资： 当前财政赤字的背景：当前正值美国的期限溢价已经处于高位。历史上，期限溢价的飙升可能会持续较 长时间（ 图1），预计这种情况将再次出现，尤其是在预算问题成为焦点时。 外国投资者需求的挑战：外国投资者对美国国债的需求仍然是一个阻力，这进一步增加了风险。 而这个夏季可能会出现"减税+就业数据恶化"的基本面组合： 财政赤字扩大与经济数据疲软：今年夏天的风险是双重的： 一方面，随着财政赤字扩大，可能会出现另一轮期限溢价飙升； 另一方面，一些经济数据的疲软可能开始显现。这些因素可能会导致美联储的政策重新定价为更偏鸽派 （尤其是考虑到最近市场对2025年美联储降息预期从100个基点迅速调整到仅略高于50个基点）。 劳动力市场的季节性疲软：值得注意的是，我们即将进入劳动力市场数据季节性疲软的时期（见图 2 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent "triple kill" in the U.S. stock, bond, and currency markets triggered by Trump's announcement of "reciprocal tariffs," highlighting concerns over inflation, economic stagnation, and the long-term trust in U.S. dollar assets [1][38]. Historical Context of "Triple Kill" - Since 1970, there have been 10 notable instances of "triple kill," primarily associated with stagflation concerns, monetary tightening, and a decline in the relative attractiveness of the U.S. dollar [2][19]. - Common triggers include economic stagnation or stagflation worries, monetary tightening to combat inflation, and a weakening of the U.S. dollar's relative appeal [2][19]. Economic Stagnation and Inflation - Historical instances of "triple kill" often occurred during periods of economic downturn and high inflation, where the Federal Reserve had to tighten monetary policy, leading to a dual impact on both stock and bond markets [2][19]. - For example, during the 1973-1974 period, the S&P 500 dropped by 15.8%, and the 10-year Treasury yield increased by 60 basis points [4][6]. Federal Reserve's Role - The Federal Reserve's delayed or inconsistent response to inflation has historically exacerbated inflation expectations, contributing to market volatility [9][19]. - In 1987, for instance, the Fed's shift to a hawkish stance led to a significant rise in bond yields and a corresponding drop in stock prices [19][21]. Recent Market Dynamics - The recent "triple kill" was primarily triggered by Trump's unexpected "reciprocal tariffs," which raised short-term market volatility and long-term concerns about inflation and economic growth [38][40]. - The tariffs are projected to increase U.S. inflation by 1.6 to 1.8 percentage points and reduce GDP growth by 0.9 percentage points [40][48]. Long-term Implications for Dollar Assets - While the tariffs may undermine investor confidence in U.S. dollar assets, the article argues that the long-term impact on the dollar's status as a reserve currency will take time to materialize [49][51]. - The current structure of U.S. debt and the predominance of domestic holders of U.S. Treasuries suggest that the dollar's position as a global reserve currency remains intact for now [51][56]. Future Outlook - The article suggests that if negotiations on tariffs or tax cuts progress positively, it could alleviate market pressures and stabilize investor sentiment [56]. - Conversely, persistent stagflation pressures could hinder the Federal Reserve's ability to lower interest rates quickly, potentially exacerbating market volatility [56][57].