Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the shift in global macroeconomic narratives from "American exceptionalism" to "American denialism," driven by factors such as tariff impacts, inflation expectations, and the implementation of the "One Big Beautiful Bill Act" [2][8]. Group 1: Narrative Shift - The global macroeconomic narrative has transitioned from "American exceptionalism" to "American denialism" in the first half of 2025, influenced by tariff disruptions and economic uncertainties [3][4]. - In early 2025, the S&P Global Manufacturing PMI remained above the neutral level of 50 for three consecutive months, indicating resilience in industrial production, but fell below 50 in April [2][8]. - The IMF revised its global GDP growth forecast for 2025 down to 2.8%, a decrease of 0.5 percentage points from January, with the U.S. forecast lowered from 2.7% to 1.8% [2][23]. Group 2: Economic Impact of Tariffs and Legislation - The average tariff rate in the U.S. rose significantly from 2.4% at the end of 2024 to around 16% by May 2025, marking the highest level since World War II [4][54]. - The "One Big Beautiful Bill Act" primarily extends existing tax cuts, which may have limited economic stimulation effects, while increasing long-term debt supply pressure due to higher deficits [4][84]. - The judicial challenges to tariffs may disrupt trade negotiations, with significant uncertainty surrounding the outcomes and potential tariff adjustments [61][62]. Group 3: Market Dynamics and Inflation - The article highlights a potential paradigm shift where U.S. dollar-denominated assets may no longer be viewed as "safe assets," with inflationary pressures expected to rise alongside economic slowdown risks [5][6]. - Inflation is anticipated to rebound, with Bloomberg consensus predicting PCE inflation to peak at 3.1% and core PCE at 3.3% by the end of 2025 [5][71]. - The article notes that the inflation effects of tariffs have begun to manifest, with retail prices showing significant increases following tariff implementations [70][71].

Core Viewpoint - The report from Citibank indicates that while Japan's bond market is not at risk of collapse, there may be a temporary period of simultaneous declines in stocks, bonds, and the yen in the coming months [1][4]. Group 1: Japanese Bond Market - Japanese government bonds (JGB) have weakened significantly since April, with the 30-year bond yield rising to approximately 3.2% and the 20-year yield reaching 2.6% [2]. - Despite the recent decline in bond prices, Citibank believes the risk of a bond market collapse is very low, as yields still meet domestic investors' expected returns, suggesting a gradual recovery in demand for yen-denominated bonds [3]. Group 2: Currency and Market Dynamics - Citibank warns of a potential "triple hit" in the Japanese financial market over the next 2-3 months, particularly during the July Senate elections, due to concerns over more expansionary fiscal policies and the Bank of Japan's lagging response [4]. - The yen may depreciate to around 150 against the dollar in the near term, but Citibank expects the yen to strengthen in the long term, predicting it will surpass 140 against the dollar in Q4 [5]. Group 3: Influence of the US Market - The performance of the Japanese market is largely influenced by the US market, with strong correlations observed between the dollar-yen exchange rate, Japanese and US stock markets, and long-term interest rates [6]. - For a true "triple hit" scenario in Japan to occur, extreme conditions would need to arise, such as a simultaneous drop in US stocks and a rise in the dollar, which is considered highly unlikely [8].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the implications of recent U.S. legislative actions, particularly the tax reduction bill passed by the House of Representatives, and its potential impact on the economy, including deficits and interest rates [6][10][17]. Group 1: Deep Topics - The article analyzes the recent U.S. court ruling regarding Trump's tariffs, questioning the legality and future implications of such tariffs on trade [3][7]. - It highlights the ongoing "pressure test" series on tariffs, focusing on how these legal and legislative changes may affect market dynamics [6][7]. Group 2: Hot Topics - The article raises concerns about an impending "storm" in U.S. Treasury bonds, suggesting that the tax reduction bill could exacerbate deficits and influence interest rates [9][10]. - It discusses new employment trends based on recent wage data, identifying sectors experiencing wage increases and those showing signs of "anti-involution" [11]. - The article emphasizes the importance of monitoring fiscal policies following the tax bill's passage, suggesting that new policies may help stabilize fiscal spending and support economic recovery [13][14]. Group 3: High-Frequency Tracking - The article notes a continuous increase in automobile sales, indicating a strong performance in the automotive sector despite broader economic challenges [15][16]. - It mentions that industrial production remains stable, although infrastructure projects have seen a decline, reflecting mixed signals in economic recovery [16][18].

Group 1: Core Insights - The article discusses the implications of the U.S. House of Representatives passing a tax reduction bill, which has led to a "triple kill" in the stock, bond, and currency markets [6][17]. - It highlights the potential impact of the bill on the federal deficit and interest rates, suggesting that the new tax measures could exacerbate the deficit [10][11]. - The article also examines the ongoing trends in employment and wage growth across various sectors, indicating a shift in labor market dynamics [11][14]. Group 2: Deep Dives - A detailed analysis of the tax reduction bill outlines its components, including extensions of existing tax cuts and new tax measures, which collectively could lead to a significant increase in the federal deficit [10]. - The article emphasizes the importance of manufacturing as a pillar of the national economy, noting its resilience amid changing economic conditions [16]. - It provides insights into the automotive sector, reporting a sustained increase in vehicle sales, which may indicate a recovery in consumer spending [15][18]. Group 3: Policy and Economic Trends - The article discusses the potential for new policies to smooth out fiscal spending rhythms, thereby supporting economic recovery [14]. - It raises concerns about profit sustainability in industrial enterprises, particularly in light of tariff disruptions and cost fluctuations [14]. - The article also touches on the overlooked aspects of service consumption recovery, attributing it to reduced leisure time rather than income effects [19].

Core Viewpoint - The financial markets have experienced significant turmoil since the current U.S. administration took office, with notable declines in both U.S. and Japanese bonds, raising concerns about potential financial instability [2][3][4]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - In March, global stock markets faced severe declines, prompting a shift of funds towards gold and U.S. Treasury bonds [2]. - By April, the safe-haven status of U.S. Treasuries diminished, leading to simultaneous declines in stocks and bonds, termed "stock-bond slaughter" [2][4]. - In May, the situation escalated to a "stock-bond-currency slaughter," indicating widespread financial distress [2]. Group 2: Bond Market Analysis - The significant drop in U.S. and Japanese bonds is attributed to underlying fiscal issues, with U.S. debt expected to rise sharply due to proposed tax cuts, potentially increasing the debt-to-GDP ratio from 98% to a record 125% over the next decade [5]. - Japan's bond market is also under pressure, with the Bank of Japan becoming a net seller of bonds, leading to decreased demand and significant price drops [5]. Group 3: Investment Opportunities - Despite the current turmoil in U.S. and Japanese bonds, the overall fiscal health of countries globally is questionable, suggesting that the risks may present buying opportunities for long-term investors [7]. - The potential for high yields in U.S. and Japanese bonds, with rates around 5% and over 2% respectively, could attract investors looking for value as the market stabilizes [7]. Group 4: Domestic Market Context - In contrast, the domestic bond market has seen yields drop below 1%, indicating limited upside potential for government bonds, which have already experienced significant gains over the past three years [9]. - Investors are advised to consider two strategies: holding long-term government bonds for stable income or gradually investing in foreign high-yield bonds as they reach a bottom [10].

文 | 赵伟、陈达飞、赵宇 联系人 | 赵宇 大类资产&海外事件&数据：众议院通过减税法案，市场再现"股债汇"三杀 美国再现"股债汇"三杀，金价再度"异军突起"。 当周，纳指下跌2.5%，日经225下跌1.6%；10Y美债收益 率上行8bp至4.51%；美元指数下跌1.8%至99.12，离岸人民币升至7.1722；WTI原油下跌1.5%至61.5美元/ 桶，COMEX黄金上涨5.0%至3351.0美元/盎司。 美国众议院通过减税法案。 5月22日，美国众议院以215票赞成、214票反对的微弱优势通过了《美丽大 法案》，法案旨在永久延续2017年《减税与就业法案》中的多项减税措施，并引入新的税收优惠。该法 案已提交参议院，共和党计划将在7月4日之前完成表决。 5月美国Markit制造业、服务业PMI反弹，日本4月核心CPI升温。 美国5月Markit制造业、服务业PMI均 提升至 52.3，前值分别为50.2、50.8，或反映中美关税缓和影响；4月日本CPI同比3.6%，核心通胀（剔除 食品、能源口径）同比3.0%，后者维持上升趋势。 风险提示 地缘政治冲突升级；美国经济放缓超预期；美联储超预期转"鹰" 报告正 ...

Group 1: Global Financial Market Overview - The global financial market is currently facing significant turmoil, with the U.S. stock market, Japanese bond market, and Chinese real estate market being highlighted as the three most in need of rescue [1][8] - Japan's recent 20-year government bond auction was notably poor, with a bid-to-cover ratio of only 2.5, the lowest since 2012, and a "tail" spread reaching 1.14, the worst since 1987 [2] - The U.S. bond market also experienced a "black Wednesday," with the 20-year Treasury yield surpassing 5%, marking the second time in history this threshold has been crossed [4][12] Group 2: U.S. Market Dynamics - Moody's downgraded the U.S. sovereign credit rating, citing unsustainable debt levels and a growing deficit, which has led to a loss of investor confidence in U.S. Treasuries [10][12] - The U.S. stock market reacted negatively to the downgrade, with major indices like the Dow Jones dropping over 800 points, reflecting the interconnectedness of the bond and equity markets [4][6] - The U.S. government is projected to increase its debt by an additional $3.8 trillion due to the recent tax cuts proposed by the Trump administration, exacerbating the existing debt crisis [20][21] Group 3: Japanese Debt Situation - Japan's public debt has reached 234.9% of GDP, significantly higher than Greece's 142.2%, indicating a severe fiscal challenge [26] - The Japanese government faces a dilemma between continuing quantitative easing to support bond purchases or tightening monetary policy to combat rising inflation [32] - The recent surge in Japanese bond yields is attributed to the Bank of Japan's reduced bond purchases, leading to concerns about the sustainability of Japan's fiscal situation [28][29] Group 4: Chinese Real Estate Market - China's real estate market is under pressure, with a 0.1% month-on-month decline in residential sales prices and a 4.5% year-on-year decrease, indicating ongoing challenges [7][35] - Goldman Sachs predicts a 40% reduction in new home sales over the next decade, while anticipating a significant increase in second-hand home transactions, which could reshape the housing market dynamics [43][44] - The shift towards a "stock" market for real estate, driven by aging properties and community operations, is expected to create new opportunities in related sectors such as building materials and home renovation [46]

美国金融市场再次出现"股债汇"三杀格局。当地时间5月21日（下同），美股集体跳水，美国国债遭到抛售，收益率大幅飙升，美元指数亦 呈现下跌态势。一般而言，当美股下跌时，投资者会购入美元或者美债避险，三者同步下跌的情况较为少见，这种情况也俗称为"股债 汇"三杀。 当日美股市场回落与美债收益率的上升密切相关，具体看美债市场方面，长期国债成为抛售的"重灾区"。10年期美债收益率5月21日大涨 2.45%，突破4.5%关口，报收于4.600%；30年期美债收益率同日大涨2.62%，报收于5.100%，突破5%关口。此外，当日美国财政部进行的 160亿美元20年期美债中标收益率明显高于市场预期，显示市场对购买新美债"兴趣不足"。 美元方面，白雪分析，美元信用虽然受损但依然存在，驱动本次回调的主因为市场对美国经济放缓的担忧等短期因素。短期内考虑到美国 经济基本面维持韧性、美国通胀或将反弹、美国利率高企等因素，美元指数回调也将是暂时现象，后期仍有反弹可能。 "美债作为全球无风险利率基准，其收益率上行必然会导致风险资产估值承压，这也是美股在高位受到冲击的原因。"东方金诚研究发展部 高级副总监白雪在接受《证券日报》记者采访时表示 ...

美国银行知名策略师哈内特最近将新兴市场称为全球市场中的"下一个牛市"。 全球市场向来牵一发而动全身。此前，穆迪调降美国信用评级仅导致美国"股债汇三杀"一日游，不少华尔街大机构高管开始警示美元资产投资者过于自满的 风险，并认为全球金融系统正在发生一些"更深层次"的事情。 话音刚落，被视为传统避险资产的日债、美债拍售相继遇冷，后者导致美国周三再度遭遇"股债汇三杀"。同时，黄金、比特币价格却升至历史新高。此外， 随着更多投资者选择"卖出美国"交易，分析师认为新兴市场有望开启一轮牛市。 美债、日债吸引力下降的逻辑 周三，美国再度遭遇股债汇三杀：美股三大股指遭遇四月以来最严重抛售、长期美债收益率出现两位数基点单日涨幅、美元指数再现将近50点的大跌单日， 失手关键点位100。其中，美债再度成为大跌的"风暴眼"。当日拍售的20年期美债的最高中标利率达到5.047%，史上第二次超过5%，并录得近6个月来最大 尾部利差，投标倍数也从近六个月平均水平2.57降至2.46。如此惨淡的拍售数据发生在穆迪调降美国信用评级后的首场长债拍售中。本应是避险资产的长期 美债需求遇冷，再度引发了投资者恐慌情绪，带动美股美元同步大跌。 对美国高债 ...

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. financial market experienced significant declines across stocks, bonds, and currencies due to weak demand in the 20-year Treasury auction and concerns over fiscal deficits, leading to the largest single-day drop in major stock indices since April 21 [1][3]. Group 1: Stock Market Performance - The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell by 1.91% to close at 41,860.44 points, the S&P 500 dropped 1.61% to 5,844.61 points, and the Nasdaq Composite decreased by 1.41% to 18,872.64 points [3]. - Major U.S. tech stocks saw declines, with Tesla and Apple dropping over 2%, while Google gained 2.87% [5][6]. - Chinese concept stocks had mixed results, with NIO and Xpeng Motors rising by 16.2% and 13.08% respectively, following better-than-expected earnings reports [8][9]. Group 2: Bond Market Insights - The 20-year Treasury auction showed weak demand, with a high yield of 5.047%, which was about 1 basis point higher than pre-auction trading levels [12]. - Indirect bidders, including governments and fund managers, accounted for 69% of the auction, indicating strong foreign demand despite overall demand being below average [12]. - The yield on the 20-year Treasury rose to 5.127% post-auction, marking the highest level since November 2023, raising concerns about the U.S. budget deficit [12]. Group 3: Commodity Market Movements - Gold prices continued to rebound, with spot gold prices rising above $3,310 per ounce, and COMEX gold futures climbing to $3,317.5 per ounce, reflecting a 1% increase [14]. - In contrast, international oil prices fell, with WTI crude dropping to $61.33 per barrel and Brent crude to $64.66 per barrel [14].