The Bank of Japan held its benchmark interest rate steady at 0.75% on Friday, while upgrading economic growth and inflation forecasts in a decision that carries significant long-term implications for cryptocurrency markets. As Japan navigates a collision between monetary tightening and fiscal expansion ahead of snap elections, crypto markets face growing exposure to yen-driven liquidity shifts and potential unwinding of carry trades. Split Vote Signals Internal Tension The decision came in a split 8-1 v ...

Group 1 - UBS believes that the recent rise in Japanese government bond yields reflects market expectations for future policy rate increases and an increase in term premium, rather than just the anticipated rise in policy rates [1] - The report indicates that the rise in Japanese government bond yields is closely related to uncertainties in fiscal policy, with market expectations for long-term policy rates being difficult to gauge [4] - UBS's analysis shows that the volatility in the Japanese government bond market has not yet created a sustained spillover effect on global markets, despite a significant rise in yields [7] Group 2 - Foreign investors have significantly reduced their holdings in the Japanese government bond market, nearly halving their investments as global yields rise [8] - UBS suggests that investors may find better entry points for Japanese government bonds after the elections and the resolution of monetary policy uncertainties [12] - Overall, the report emphasizes the complexity of the Japanese government bond market under the dual influence of fiscal and monetary policies, with fiscal expansion being the main driver of rising yields [12]

| | 市场表现：1 月 日，A 股四大股指全线上涨，其中上证指数上涨 0.08%，报收 点；深成 21 4116.94 | | --- | --- | | | 指上涨 0.7%，报收 14255.13 点；创业板指上涨 0.54%，报收 3295.52 点；科创 50 指数上涨 3.53%， | | | 报收 1535.39 点。市场成交 26,237 亿元，较前日减少 1,805 亿元。行业板块方面，有色金属(+2.79%)， | | | 电子(+2.62%)，机械设备(+1.5%)涨幅居前；银行(-1.58%)，煤炭(-1.57%)，食品饮料(-1.53%)跌幅 | | | 居前。从市场强弱看，IC>IM>IF>IH，个股涨/平/跌数分别为 3,095/179/2,195。沪深两市，机构、主 | | | 力、大户、散户全天资金分别净流入 155、-98、-100、44 亿元，分别变动+627、+194、-345、-475 | | 股指期货 | 亿元。 | | | 基差：IM、IC、IF、IH 次月合约基差分别为 16.68、-30.89、0.27 与-6.42 点，基差年化收益率分别 | | | 为-1 ...

高盛交易员指出，高市早苗这番表态，彰显了她将此次选举定位为民众对其本人及其财政政策的投票。 而债券市场正将这次选举定位为一个财政扩张的故事。高市早苗提出的削减食品税建议没有具体的资金 来源，这只会加剧对日本财政恶化的担忧。 在此冲击下，日本债市剧烈震荡。由于日本的债务规模在主要经济体中高居榜首，财政预算的四分之一 都需用于偿还债务本息，债券收益率攀升带来的冲击对日本而言尤为剧烈。眼下距离2月8日的大选已时 日无多，竞选期间政策掉头难度极大，高市早苗或许缺乏有效手段安抚市场情绪。投资者正愈发担忧， 日本的财政管控能力是否正在失控。 财经频道更多独家策划、专家专栏，免费查阅>> 智通财经获悉，尽管与中国之间的外交争端仍在持续，但来自中国的稳定需求推动日本出口连续第四个 月增长。日本财务省周四报告称，去年12月日本整体出口同比增长5.1%，主要由半导体零部件和有色 金属带动。不过，这一增幅低于分析师预期的6.1%。分地区看，对中国出口在原材料和电子零部件的 带动下同比增长5.6%;对美国出口则因汽车及汽车零部件下滑而同比大降11.1%。对欧盟出口增长2.6%。 整体来看，在未经季节调整的情况下，日本贸易收支实现顺差 ...

智通财经APP获悉，尽管与中国之间的外交争端仍在持续，但来自中国的稳定需求推动日本出口连续第 四个月增长。日本财务省周四报告称，去年12月日本整体出口同比增长5.1%，主要由半导体零部件和 有色金属带动。不过，这一增幅低于分析师预期的6.1%。分地区看，对中国出口在原材料和电子零部 件的带动下同比增长5.6%;对美国出口则因汽车及汽车零部件下滑而同比大降11.1%。对欧盟出口增长 2.6%。整体来看，在未经季节调整的情况下，日本贸易收支实现顺差，盈余为1057亿日元(约合6.67亿 美元);进口同比增长5.3%。 尽管周四公布的数据喜忧参半，但这将使日本央行维持其逐步加息的路径。市场普遍预期日本央行在去 年12月上调基准利率后，将于周五维持利率不变。日本央行已强调，只要物价和经济增长与其预测相 符，将继续推进加息进程。 值得一提的是，在日本央行即将公布最新利率决议的同一天，日本首相高市早苗将解散众议院。高市早 苗本周一在记者会上正式确认将于1月23日解散众议院，并于2月8日提前大选。这位持扩张性财政政策 和宽松货币政策立场的首相还称，必须大胆投资风险管理、摆脱过度紧缩的束缚。投资者对日本政府支 出急剧扩张以及 ...

Economic Growth - In Q4 2025, GDP grew by 4.5% year-on-year, with an annual growth of 5%[1] - Nominal GDP increased by 4% for the entire year, while the GDP deflator index fell by 0.7%[1] - Net exports contributed approximately 1.6 percentage points to GDP growth, driven by resilient exports[1] Industrial and Service Production - Industrial production grew by 5.9% in 2025, slightly above the 5.8% growth in 2024[2] - The service sector maintained a high growth rate of 5.4%, up from 5.1% in the previous year[2] - High-tech manufacturing value added increased by 9.4%, with significant contributions from integrated circuits and biopharmaceuticals[2] Investment Trends - Fixed asset investment declined by 3.8%, lower than the previous year's decline of 3.2%[2] - Infrastructure investment (excluding power) decreased by 2.2%, while manufacturing investment grew by 0.6%[2] - Public utility investments rose by 9.1%, with pipeline transportation investment increasing by 36%[2] Real Estate Market - The sales area of commercial housing fell by 8.7%, a smaller decline compared to nearly 13% in 2024[3] - New housing starts dropped by 20.3%, indicating ongoing supply-side adjustments[3] - Real estate development investment decreased by 17.2%, with a widening decline compared to the previous year[3] Consumer Spending - Retail sales of consumer goods grew by 3.7% in 2025, a slight increase from the previous year's growth rate[3] - The retail sales growth rate for home appliances and communication equipment reached 11% and 20.9%, respectively[3] - Automotive retail sales declined by 1.5%, reflecting a broader trend of reduced consumer spending in this sector[3] Export Performance - Exports increased by 5.5% in 2025, maintaining resilience despite a significant drop in exports to the U.S. by 20%[4] - Exports to Europe, ASEAN, and Africa grew by 8.4%, 13.4%, and 25.8%, respectively, indicating a shift in trade dynamics[4]

政治豪赌与财政十字路口的危险抉择 这场日债抛售始于近期高度敏感的政治操作。日前，高市早苗在记者会上表示，将于23日解散众议院，2月8日举行众议院选举。本届日本国会众议院议员的 任期原定于2028年10月届满，此次提前三年解散，标志着日本政局进入动荡期。 新华财经北京1月21日电（王菁）日债市场正经历着二十多年来最严峻的考验。1月21日早盘数据显示，10年期日债收益率在2.338%附近，依旧盘踞在1999 年2月以来26年11个月的高点，本周已累计上行超15BPs。这一剧烈市场波动的直接导火索，正是首相高市早苗为备战2月8日众议院选举而抛出的"政策炸 弹"。 在这场政治博弈中，财政承诺成为主要竞选武器。高市早苗领导的自民党提出，在两年内将食品和饮料的消费税税率从目前的8%降至零。据日本财务省估 算，仅这一项减税措施，每年就将减少约5万亿日元的财政收入，几乎等同于日本全年在教育、科学和文化事业上的支出总和。 更具风险信号的是，日本最大在野党组成的"中道改革联合"甚至提出了更激进的主张——永久取消食品消费税。尽管该联盟声称将通过设立主权财富基金来 筹措资金，但具体机制模糊不清。 数据显示，30年期日债收益率21日早 ...

2026年投资展望 中信证券资产管理(香港)资产配置投资 2026年1 月 仅供内部参考 2026年配置主轴：美国宽松力度放缓，关注波动放大与新兴市场的交易机会 仅供内部参考 | 固定收益 | | 17 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 美联储2026全年或降息两次，惟通胀不确定性仍在，偏好3年以内 久期；欧央行暂停降息但维持宽松，留意后续经济情况。通胀压 | | 2026年美欧日的政策利率有望加速收敛美元或弱势震荡。人民币 受惠美元转弱与经济韧性支持，未来仍有温和升值空间 | | | | 力未缓，中长期BOJ政策偏紧；选择性配置新兴国家资产,关注欧 | | | | | | 非中东及巴西央行降息空间。 | | | | | | 低配 超配 | 中性 | 低配 | 中性 | 记者 西 | | 2 | | | | | | 政府债券 日本 新兴国家 | 美国、欧洲 | | | | | 美国投资级、美 | | છે. આ | | 人民币、欧元 | | 信用债券 | 国高收益、欧洲 投资级、欧洲高 | | | | | 收益、新兴国家 | .. | | | | 资料来源：中信证 ...

今天美国日本债券市场的大量抛售使基本金属承压，贵金属受追捧 1） 日本：我们在去年12月时曾提醒关注日本 风险引发的全球抛售，会蔓延至基本金属市场。 今天日本债市崩盘引发了流动性冲击。 日本因由于财政扩张担忧导致国债遭到大规模抛售，收益率飙升并外溢至美债市场，压制了全球风险资产表现。 高市早苗在即将到来的选举中提出的减税主张，担忧其财政后果，这使得在2月8日预定的民调发布前，东京市场 的交易可能持续处于动荡之中。 今天日本债市崩盘引发了流动性冲击。 日本因由于财政扩张担忧导致国债遭到大规模抛售，收益率飙升并外溢至美债市场，压制了全球风险资产表现。 高市早苗在即将到来的选举中提出的减税主张，担忧其财政后果，这使得在2月8日预定的民调发布前，东京市场 今天美国日本债券市场的大量抛售使基本金属承压，贵金属受追捧 1） 日本：我们在去年12月时曾提醒关注日本 风险引发的全球抛售，会蔓延至基本金属市场。 ...

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Records Industry Overview - The macroeconomic outlook for China in 2026 is projected to maintain a growth target of around 5% to achieve the goal of reaching a per capita GDP comparable to that of moderately developed countries by 2035, requiring an average growth rate of approximately 5.5% over the next 11 years [1][4]. Core Economic Insights - Despite a slight decline in global economic growth forecasts, China's external demand remains resilient, benefiting from diversified export markets and improved product competitiveness. However, the difficulty in expanding export shares is increasing, and the contribution of goods and services trade to GDP may decline [1][5]. - Domestic demand faces challenges, particularly due to ongoing weakness in real estate investment, while manufacturing investment is expected to be a highlight, driven by the "15th Five-Year Plan" [1][6][7]. - Consumer spending shows resilience but remains overall unsatisfactory, with a rapid decline in government consumption expenditure. Fiscal expansion may help alleviate this issue, as consumer spending is influenced by income and wealth, which have been negatively impacted by the weak real estate market [1][8][9]. Important Economic Indicators - In 2025, China's GDP growth rate was 5%, with a quarter-on-quarter increase of 1.2% in Q4, slightly up from 1.1% in Q3. However, nominal growth remains low at 3.8%, indicating persistent deflationary pressures [2]. - The contribution of goods and services trade to GDP reached 1.64 percentage points, accounting for 32.7%, marking a historical high, while capital formation's contribution was only 0.77 percentage points, the lowest since 1998 [2]. Consumer Behavior and Fiscal Policy - The central government's plan to increase urban and rural residents' income is expected to be announced during the upcoming "Two Sessions," which could significantly impact domestic demand and counteract deflation [10]. - The decline in government consumption expenditure, which constitutes about 16% of GDP, has been rapid, necessitating fiscal expansion to address this issue [8]. Inflation and Monetary Policy - Although China faces deflationary pressures, the GDP deflator index showed improvement in Q4, and CPI rebounded mainly due to base effects. However, without strong policy measures, consumer confidence may not recover, and prolonged deflation could affect corporate profits and household income [3][11]. - Recent adjustments to the central bank's structural monetary policy tools have had limited market impact, highlighting the need for fiscal policy to play a more significant role in stimulating demand and combating deflation [12]. Global Economic Context - The uncertainty surrounding the Federal Reserve's monetary policy, influenced by political factors, has led to fluctuations in interest rate expectations and a weaker dollar, which may benefit the Chinese stock market amid global capital reallocation [3][14][15]. - The Chinese stock market is expected to perform well due to a favorable economic growth outlook, with the potential for increased capital inflows as the RMB appreciates [15]. Bond Market Opportunities - The bond market is anticipated to present opportunities primarily in a range-bound environment, with yields potentially declining under renewed deflationary pressures and rising when such pressures ease [16][17].