Core Viewpoint - The World Trade Organization (WTO) has revised its global trade outlook from an expected expansion to a downward adjustment due to increasing trade tensions and geopolitical uncertainties [1][3]. Group 1: Global Trade Assessment - The WTO's latest report indicates that global trade policy activities have increased, with rising tensions among major trading partners contributing to a more volatile and unpredictable trade environment [1]. - The United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) forecasts a $300 billion increase in global trade for the first half of the year, but warns of significant obstacles in the second half due to U.S. trade policy uncertainties and geopolitical tensions [1][4]. Group 2: Trade Barriers and Policy Recommendations - The WTO calls for countries to reduce tariffs and other trade barriers to promote trade liberalization and economic growth, emphasizing the need for transparency in trade policies [2]. - The report highlights that retaliatory measures, such as those taken by Canada and the EU against U.S. trade policies, are likely to exacerbate trade tensions and lead to a decline in global trade volume [2]. Group 3: Trade Growth Projections - Earlier projections for global trade growth in 2025 and 2026 have been significantly downgraded due to U.S. tariff policies, with expectations for merchandise trade growth now revised downward [3]. - The WTO's Goods Trade Barometer indicates a slight increase in the global goods trade index, but a decline in new export orders suggests a slowdown in trade growth later this year [4]. Group 4: Trade Imbalances and Risks - The report notes an increase in global trade imbalances, particularly with the U.S. experiencing a widening trade deficit over the past four quarters [5]. - The potential for further unilateral actions by the U.S. could escalate trade tensions and disrupt global supply chains, increasing the risk of trade fragmentation [5].

Group 1 - The World Trade Organization (WTO) has revised its global trade outlook from "expansion" to "downward adjustment" due to increasing trade policy activities and geopolitical tensions among major trading partners [1][3] - The WTO report indicates that global trade uncertainty is rising, influenced by regional conflicts and geopolitical tensions, leading to increased volatility and unpredictability in the global trade environment [1][2] - The United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) reported that while global trade is expected to grow by $300 billion in the first half of the year, it will face significant headwinds in the second half due to U.S. trade policy uncertainties and global geopolitical tensions [1][4] Group 2 - The WTO calls for countries to reduce tariffs and other trade barriers to promote trade liberalization and economic growth, emphasizing the need for transparency in trade policies [2][5] - The WTO's previous forecast in April predicted a 0.2% decline in global goods trade by 2025, with a 2.5% growth expected in 2026, but this outlook has been revised downward due to U.S. tariff policies [2][3] - The global goods trade barometer showed a rise in the index from 102.8 to 103.5, but a decline in new export orders indicates a potential slowdown in trade growth later this year [4][5]

Core Viewpoint - The World Trade Organization (WTO) has revised its global trade outlook from an expected expansion to a downward adjustment due to increasing trade tensions and geopolitical uncertainties [1][4]. Group 1: Global Trade Assessment - The WTO's latest report indicates a rise in global trade policy activities, with escalating tensions among major trading partners contributing to increased trade uncertainty [1]. - The United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) forecasts a $300 billion increase in global trade for the first half of the year, but warns of significant obstacles in the second half due to U.S. trade policy uncertainties and geopolitical tensions [1][7]. Group 2: Trade Policy and Measures - Since the beginning of the year, the U.S. has implemented various bilateral and global trade measures, prompting some economies to introduce trade facilitation measures while others have announced retaliatory measures, primarily involving tariff increases [3]. - The WTO calls for countries to reduce tariffs and other trade barriers to promote trade liberalization and economic growth, emphasizing the need for transparency in trade policies [3]. Group 3: Trade Volume Predictions - The WTO's earlier predictions for global trade growth in 2025 and 2026 have been significantly downgraded due to U.S. tariff policies, with expectations for a 0.2% decline in goods trade and a slower growth outlook for services trade [4]. - The WTO's Goods Trade Barometer shows a rise in the global goods trade index from 102.8 to 103.5, but a decline in new export orders indicates a potential slowdown in trade growth later this year [6]. Group 4: Trade Imbalances and Risks - The UNCTAD report highlights a worsening trade imbalance, with the U.S. trade deficit continuing to expand over the past four quarters, raising concerns about the fragmentation risks associated with recent U.S. tariff measures [7]. - The report warns that if U.S. "reciprocal tariffs" are fully implemented or if trade policy uncertainty spreads globally, a contraction in trade could occur [7].

Core Insights - The World Trade Organization (WTO) has released a report assessing global trade developments from mid-October 2024 to mid-May 2025, highlighting increased trade policy activities and escalating tensions among major trading partners [1] - The report predicts a 0.2% decline in global merchandise trade volume in 2025, with a subsequent growth of 2.5% expected in 2026, indicating a slowdown in trade activities [1] Trade Measures - During the reporting period, 644 trade measures related to goods were recorded, indicating a rise in the introduction of new trade measures, with trade remedy measures accounting for 46% of these [2] - Other recorded measures include 207 trade facilitation measures and 141 additional trade measures, with the latter covering an estimated trade value of $2.7327 trillion, the highest recorded since the WTO's trade monitoring began in 2009 [2] - By 2024, the trade value covered by these measures is estimated at $2.959 trillion, representing 12.5% of global imports, while affected export trade is valued at $81.17 billion, or 3.5% of global exports [2] - By the end of May 2025, the trade value covered is projected to reach approximately $4.6041 trillion, accounting for 19.4% of global imports, an increase of 6.9 percentage points year-on-year [2] Economic Support Measures - Since the 2008 financial crisis, general economic support measures have been a significant part of trade monitoring, but the number of reported measures has decreased from 224 in 2024 to 100 in 2025, indicating a shift towards more strategic and comprehensive non-financial interventions [3] - The report notes that the U.S. has implemented a series of bilateral and global trade measures, prompting retaliatory actions from other economies, including Canada and the EU, primarily involving tariff increases [3] Recommendations - The report calls for countries to reduce tariffs and other trade barriers to promote trade liberalization and economic growth, emphasizing the need for increased transparency in trade policies [4] - It advocates for strengthening the multilateral trading system to ensure fair and effective enforcement of trade rules and encourages collaborative solutions for sustainable trade policies, particularly in renewable energy and clean technology [4]

Core Viewpoint - The leaders of seven countries in Central and Western Asia have reached a consensus to promote trade liberalization, attract more foreign investment, and establish green energy cooperation to strengthen regional economic integration [1]. Group 1: Summit Outcomes - The Economic Cooperation Organization (ECO) announced that the summit agreed to improve transportation connectivity and undertake reconstruction efforts in war-torn areas as part of a long-term development strategy aimed for 2035 [1]. - The new roadmap expands the focus to include green energy cooperation, digitalization, and social inclusivity, building on previous strategies emphasizing regional integration, trade, and transportation [3]. Group 2: Participants - The summit was attended by leaders including Turkish President Erdogan, Azerbaijani President Aliyev, Uzbek President Mirziyoyev, Iranian President Pezeshkian, Kyrgyz President Zaparov, Tajik President Rahmon, and Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz [2]. Group 3: Geopolitical Context - The meeting took place in the Azerbaijani enclave of Nagorno-Karabakh, where Azerbaijan regained full control in 2023 after a long period of de facto independence for the Armenian population [4]. - Both Armenia and Azerbaijan support a peace treaty, although tensions between the two countries remain high [5]. - Erdogan expressed hope that Hankend would become a "center of peace and development in the South Caucasus" in the future [6].

Core Viewpoint - The leaders of seven countries in Central and Western Asia have reached a consensus to promote trade liberalization, attract foreign investment, and establish green energy cooperation to enhance regional economic integration [1] Group 1: Economic Cooperation and Integration - The Economic Cooperation Organization (ECO) announced plans to improve transportation connectivity and undertake reconstruction efforts in war-torn areas as part of a long-term development strategy aimed for 2035 [1] - The new roadmap expands on previous strategies emphasizing regional integration, trade, and transportation, now including green energy cooperation, digitalization, and social inclusivity [1] Group 2: Political Context - The summit was attended by leaders from Turkey, Azerbaijan, Uzbekistan, Iran, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, and Pakistan, indicating a collaborative effort among these nations [1] - Despite both Armenia and Azerbaijan supporting a peace treaty, tensions between the two countries remain high [2] Group 3: Future Aspirations - Turkish President Erdogan expressed hopes for Hankend to become a "center of peace and development in the South Caucasus" in the future [3]

Core Points - The leaders of seven countries in Central and Western Asia reached a consensus to promote trade liberalization, attract more foreign investment, and establish green energy cooperation to strengthen regional economic integration [1] - The Economic Cooperation Organization (ECO) announced that the meeting also agreed to improve transportation connectivity and undertake reconstruction efforts in war-affected areas, which is part of a long-term development strategy aimed for 2035 [1]

Group 1 - The 17th Central Asia-West Asia Economic Cooperation Organization summit was held in Hankeand, Azerbaijan, focusing on a new vision for a sustainable and climate-adaptive future [1] - Leaders discussed topics such as trade liberalization, green transformation, climate change, transport corridors, and institutional capacity building [1] - Azerbaijan's President Aliyev highlighted the favorable investment environment in Azerbaijan, which has attracted nearly $350 billion in investments over the past 20 years, with half being foreign investments [1] Group 2 - Azerbaijan exports natural gas to 12 countries through multiple gas pipelines [1]

Core Viewpoint - The OECD has downgraded its global economic growth forecasts for 2025 and 2026 to 2.9%, indicating a weakening growth momentum and increasing risks in the global economy [1][10]. Group 1: Trade Barriers and Economic Policies - Trade barriers and economic policy uncertainty are identified as primary reasons for the global economic slowdown, with increased tariffs and trade restrictions disrupting supply chains and diminishing business and consumer confidence [3][4]. - The report highlights a notable slowdown in growth among North American economies, particularly the U.S., Canada, and Mexico, due to trade tensions impacting the largest economies [3][4]. - The U.S. inflation forecasts for 2025 and 2026 have been raised to 3.2% and 2.8%, respectively, indicating persistent inflationary pressures that could lead to continued tight monetary policies by the Federal Reserve [3][4]. Group 2: Impact of Protectionism - The rise of protectionism and trade barriers is harming global supply chain efficiency, increasing business costs, and ultimately affecting consumer prices, leading to constrained economic vitality and reduced global trade and investment flows [4][6]. - The fragmentation of trade is undermining the stability of the multilateral trading system, with historical evidence suggesting that rising protectionism hampers economic growth and leads to a "zero-sum game" scenario [6][7]. Group 3: Call for Cooperation - OECD Chief Economist Pereira emphasizes the necessity for countries to engage in sincere negotiations to avoid further trade fragmentation, advocating for multilateral cooperation and trade liberalization as essential for sustainable global economic growth [9][10]. - The report warns that the ongoing trade barriers could exacerbate international tensions and complicate global political dynamics, highlighting the need for stable and rule-based economic development rather than short-term protective measures [7][10].

Core Viewpoint - The 2025 Tsinghua Wudaokou Global Financial Forum emphasizes the need for an open and inclusive economic and financial system to enhance resilience amid global economic uncertainties [1][2] Group 1: Economic and Financial Stability - The forum aims to address the challenges posed by a rapidly changing international environment, economic transformations, and technological innovations [1] - Strengthening economic and financial stability is deemed crucial for improving resilience during uncertain times [1] Group 2: China's Role in Global Economy - China has been a major contributor to global economic growth and stability, advocating for true multilateralism and actively participating in global economic governance [1][2] - The country is transitioning from a rule follower to a reformer in global governance, focusing on high-quality development to counter external uncertainties [1] Group 3: Financial Development Initiatives - The Central Financial Work Conference has introduced five key areas for financial development: technology finance, green finance, inclusive finance, pension finance, and digital finance [2] - These areas are seen as new driving forces for high-quality financial development in China [2] Group 4: Forum Significance - The Tsinghua Wudaokou Global Financial Forum, initiated in 2014, has become a significant platform for international academic and policy exchange in finance [2] - This year's forum attracted nearly a hundred high-level political and economic leaders and experts to discuss pressing topics such as the global monetary system and challenges of economic fragmentation [2]