Core Viewpoint - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) has recently implemented measures to strengthen counter-cyclical adjustments and support liquidity in the financial market, indicating a proactive approach to managing economic conditions [1] Group 1 - On May 15, the PBOC executed its first reserve requirement ratio (RRR) cut of 2025, injecting approximately 1 trillion yuan (about 140 billion USD) into the financial market [1] - On May 23, the PBOC conducted a 500 billion yuan (approximately 70 billion USD) operation of Medium-term Lending Facility (MLF) to continue providing liquidity [1] - Industry insiders anticipate that overall liquidity will remain stable in June, suggesting a positive outlook for the financial environment [1]

Group 1: Market Overview - The issuance scale of government bonds, local government bonds, and policy financial bonds last week was 371 billion, 105.5 billion, and 102.1 billion respectively, with net financing amounts of 195.6 billion, 67.2 billion, and -27.5 billion [1] - The total issuance scale of non-financial credit bonds was 163.7 billion, with a net financing amount of 3 billion [1] Group 2: Liquidity Tracking - Last week, the net withdrawal through reverse repos was 781.7 billion, with funds initially tightening and then loosening [3] - This week, there will be 836.1 billion in reverse repos and 125 billion in MLF maturing, while government bond issuance will accelerate alongside the release of 1 trillion in reserve requirement cuts [3] Group 3: Policy and Fundamentals - The central bank announced a reserve requirement cut of 50 basis points, a policy interest rate cut of 10 basis points, and a 25 basis point cut for structural tools [4] - In April, dollar-denominated exports increased by 8.1% year-on-year, exceeding expectations, while CPI was -0.1% and PPI was -2.7%, both in line with expectations [4] Group 4: Equity Market - A-shares rose again last week due to post-holiday effects, US-China negotiations, and the India-Pakistan conflict, with major indices recovering all losses since the trade war began in April [6] - The total A-share financing balance reached 1,797.138 billion, an increase of 5.833 billion compared to April 29 [6] Group 5: Debt Market Strategy Outlook - The first quarter monetary policy report indicates a shift towards encouraging banks to increase credit issuance, suggesting a continued loose liquidity environment [7] - The market is concerned about the impact of tariff shocks on exports, but there is a clear supportive policy stance expected to hedge against export declines [7]

[Table_Main] 证券研究报告 | 固定收益点评 2025 年 5 月 12 日 固定收益点评 证券分析师 吕品 资格编号：S0120524050005 邮箱：lvpin＠tebon.com.cn 严伶怡 资格编号：S0120524110003 邮箱：yanly＠tebon.com.cn 研究助理 货币资金面 请务必阅读正文之后的信息披露和法律声明 本周（5.6-5.9，下同）共有 16178 亿元逆回购到期。周二至周五央行分别投放逆 回购 4050、1955、1586、770 亿元，期间累计投放 8361 亿元逆回购，全周净回 笼流动性 7817 亿元。本周资金价格下行，截至 5 月 9 日，R001、R007、DR001、 DR007 分别为 1.52%、1.58%、1.49%、1.54%，较 4 月 30 日分别变动-33.21BP、 -25.91BP、-29.45BP、-25.77BP，分别位于 22%、9%、20%、3%历史分位数。 本周资金主要融出方净融入规模减少。本周资金主要融出方净融入规模减少。主要 融出机构（大行/政策行与股份行）全周（5.6-5.9）净融入-4639 亿元，与前一周 ...

Report Summary 1. Core Viewpoint From May 6 to May 9, 2025, the central bank conducted net repurchase of reverse repurchase funds. With the central bank's announcement of reserve requirement ratio and interest rate cuts, the overall funding rate declined. From May 5 to May 11, government bonds had a small net repayment, the net financing scale of inter - bank certificates of deposit increased, and the maturity yield of inter - bank certificates of deposit decreased significantly. The leverage ratio of the inter - bank bond market continued to be low, and the net financing scale of state - owned large - scale banks and policy banks recovered. It is estimated that government bonds will have a net financing of 64.53 billion yuan from May 12 to May 18 [2]. 2. Summary by Section 2.1 Funding Side - The central bank conducted net repurchase of reverse repurchase funds. From May 6 to May 9, 2025, the central bank's reverse repurchase investment was 83.61 billion yuan and the repurchase was 161.78 billion yuan, with a total net repurchase of 78.17 billion yuan. From May 13 to May 16, 2025, 83.61 billion yuan of open - market reverse repurchases and 12.5 billion yuan of Medium - term Lending Facility (MLF) will mature [7]. - After the central bank announced reserve requirement ratio and interest rate cuts, the funding rate declined. From May 6 to May 9, 2025, the average values of DR001 and R001 were 1.60% and 1.64% respectively, down 3.2 and 3.1 basis points compared with April 27 - April 30, 2025. The average values of DR007 and R007 were 1.64% and 1.67% respectively, down 12.1 and 11.4 basis points compared with April 27 - April 30, 2025 [7]. 2.2 Government Bonds - From May 5 to May 11, 2025, government bonds had a net repayment of about 1.23 billion yuan (on the payment date basis), about 13.34 billion yuan more than that from April 28 to May 4, 2025. Among them, treasury bonds had a net repayment of about 7.54 billion yuan, and local government bonds had a net financing of about 6.31 billion yuan. It is estimated that government bonds will have a net financing of 64.53 billion yuan from May 12 to May 18, 2025, including about 48.167 billion yuan for treasury bonds and about 16.365 billion yuan for local government bonds [8]. 2.3 Inter - bank Certificates of Deposit - The maturity yield of inter - bank certificates of deposit decreased significantly. As of May 9, 2025, the maturity yields of 1M, 3M, and 1Y inter - bank certificates of deposit were 1.5650%, 1.6050%, and 1.6600% respectively, down 7, 13, and 8 basis points compared with April 30, 2025 [9]. - The net financing scale of inter - bank certificates of deposit increased. From May 5 to May 11, 2025, the net financing amount of inter - bank certificates of deposit was about 33.44 billion yuan, compared with a net repayment of about 8.6 billion yuan from April 28 to May 4, 2025. It is estimated that the maturity repayment amount of inter - bank certificates of deposit from May 12 to May 18, 2025, will be 58.25 billion yuan, slightly higher than this week's 52.36 billion yuan, and the refinancing pressure will increase slightly [9]. 2.4 Institutional Behavior - The leverage ratio of the inter - bank bond market continued to be at a low level. From May 6 to May 9, 2025, the average calculated leverage ratio of the inter - bank bond market was 107.40%, compared with 107.49% from April 27 to April 30, 2025. Among them, the calculated leverage ratios of the inter - bank bond market on May 9, 2025, and April 30, 2025, were both about 107.31% [10]. - The net financing scale of state - owned large - scale banks and policy banks further recovered. In terms of the structure of net financing of pledged reverse repurchases, on May 9, 2025, the net financing of state - owned large - scale banks and policy banks was about 3.26 trillion yuan, compared with about 2.89 trillion yuan on April 30, 2025 [10]. 3. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content was provided in the report.

证 券 研 究 报 告 股票型ETF持续流出 ——流动性&交易拥挤度周报 2025年5月6日 证券分析师：姚佩 执业编号：S0360522120004 邮箱：yaopei@hcyjs.com 证券分析师：林昊 执业编号：S0360523070007 邮箱：linhao@hcyjs.com 本报告由华创证券有限责任公司编制 卖的出价或询价。本报告所载信息均为个人观点，并不构成对所涉及证券的个人投资建议。 请仔细阅读PPT后部分的分析师声明及免责声明。 @2021 华创 版权所有 核心结论 证 券 研 究 报 告 | 资金供给 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 资金供给主体(亿元) | 上 期 | 本 期 | 近3年分位 | | 偏股型公募新发份额 | 74 | 45 | 65% | | 两融资金净流入 | -12 | -154 | 13% | | 股票型ETF净申购 | -117 | -144 | 7% | | 上市公司回购 | 23 | 16 | 43% | | 合 计 | -54 | -252 | | | 资金需求 | | | | | 资金需求主体(亿元) | 上 期 ...

证 券 研 究 报 告 南向资金24/08以来首次净流出 ——流动性&交易拥挤度周报 2025年4月29日 | 证券分析师：姚佩 | 执业编号：S0360522120004 | 邮箱：yaopei@hcyjs.com | | --- | --- | --- | | 证券分析师：林昊 | 执业编号：S0360523070007 | 邮箱：linhao@hcyjs.com | 本报告由华创证券有限责任公司编制 卖的出价或询价。本报告所载信息均为个人观点，并不构成对所涉及证券的个人投资建议。 请仔细阅读PPT后部分的分析师声明及免责声明。 @2021 华创 版权所有 核心结论 证 券 研 究 报 告 | 资金供给 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 资金供给主体(亿元) | 上 期 | 本 期 | 近3年分位 | | 偏股型公募新发份额 | 39 | 74 | 81% | | 两融资金净流入 | -57 | -12 | 45% | | 股票型ETF净申购 | 350 | -124 | 8% | | 上市公司回购 | 19 | 23 | 63% | | 合 计 | 332 | -6 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints From April 21 to April 25, 2025, the central bank net - injected funds, and the capital interest rates generally declined; the net financing scale of government bonds decreased; the net financing scale of inter - bank certificates of deposit increased, and the maturity yields of inter - bank certificates of deposit slightly increased; the leverage ratio of the inter - bank bond market remained stable at a relatively low level, and the net lending scale of state - owned large - scale banks and policy banks slightly increased. From April 28 to May 4, 2025, the net financing of government bonds is expected to be 12.11 billion yuan [2]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Funds - **Central Bank Net Investment**: From April 21 to April 25, 2025, the central bank's reverse repurchase investment was 88.2 billion yuan, and the repurchase was 80.8 billion yuan. The treasury fixed - deposit investment was 10 billion yuan, and the 1 - year medium - term lending facility (MLF) investment was 60 billion yuan, with a total net investment of 77.4 billion yuan. From April 28 to April 30, 2025, 50.45 billion yuan of open - market reverse repurchases will expire [6]. - **Capital Interest Rates**: From April 21 to April 25, 2025, the average values of DR001 and R001 decreased by 2.0 basis points compared with April 14 - April 18, 2025; the average values of DR007 and R007 decreased by 1.8 basis points and 1.2 basis points respectively. On April 25, with the 60 - billion - yuan MLF investment, the overnight capital interest rates DR001 and R001 both dropped below 1.60% [7]. - **Government Bond Net Financing**: From April 21 to April 27, 2025, the net repayment of government bonds was about 8.01 billion yuan, 87.8 billion yuan more than that from April 14 to April 20, 2025. From April 28 to May 4, 2025, the net financing of government bonds is expected to be about 12.11 billion yuan [8]. 3.2 Inter - bank Certificates of Deposit - **Maturity Yields**: As of April 25, 2025, the maturity yields of 1M and 1Y inter - bank certificates of deposit increased by 1 basis point compared with April 18, 2025, while the 3M yield was basically flat [9]. - **Net Financing**: From April 21 to April 27, 2025, the net financing of inter - bank certificates of deposit was about 18.76 billion yuan, compared with a net repayment of about 0.42 billion yuan from April 14 to April 20, 2025. From April 28 to May 4, 2025, the maturity repayment amount of inter - bank certificates of deposit is expected to be 33.53 billion yuan, lower than this week's 79.06 billion yuan [9]. 3.3 Institutional Behavior - **Leverage Ratio**: From April 21 to April 25, 2025, the average leverage ratio of the inter - bank bond market was 107.19%, basically the same as that from April 14 to April 18, 2025 [10]. - **Net Lending Scale**: On April 25, 2025, the net lending funds of state - owned large - scale banks and policy banks were about 2.93 trillion yuan, accounting for 53.3% of the total net lending. On April 18, 2025, the net lending scale was about 2.88 trillion yuan, accounting for 52.4% [10].

Group 1: Liquidity and Fund Flows - Stock-type ETFs remain the main source of net inflows, with a net subscription of 343 billion CNY, ranking in the 87th percentile over the past three years[12] - Margin financing saw a significant reduction in net outflow, decreasing from 940 billion CNY to 57 billion CNY, representing a 29% percentile over the past three years[12] - The total amount of equity financing was 115 billion CNY, which is at the 45% percentile over the past three years[12] Group 2: Market Trends and Trading Activity - The trading heat for the chemical industry increased by 29 percentage points, while light industry, real estate, semiconductor, and banking sectors saw increases of 15, 12, 11, and 8 percentage points respectively[11] - The net increase in industrial capital was only 8 billion CNY, down from 59 billion CNY, indicating a significant contraction in capital inflows[12] - The total repurchase amount by listed companies was 19 billion CNY, down from 50 billion CNY, placing it at the 55% percentile over the past three years[12] Group 3: Southbound and Northbound Capital Flows - Southbound capital inflow was 219 billion CNY, a decrease from 780 billion CNY, with a strength ranking in the 82nd percentile over the past three years[12] - Northbound capital participation in the A-share market was 5.8%, which is at the 23% percentile over the past three years[12]