中国人民银行数据表明，央行二季度净购金6吨，上半年累计增储19吨，截至6月，连续8个月增持黄金。 不过，世界黄金协会发布最新的二季度全球黄金需求报告却显示，市场购金主力军的全球央行的购买量有所放 缓，全球央行在二季度净购金166吨，增储量同比减少了21%。 全球央行购金速度放缓除了当前金价处于较高位置之外，对于金价上涨的前景表明了并不统一的立场。 日内收盘，沪金上涨0.26%，报收782.5元/克。 图片来源：曲合APP 前期出于对贸易冲突的担忧部分资金选择押注黄金多头，随着 8 月 1 日到来前或有更多国家和美国达成贸易协 议对市场情绪影响减弱对美元资产形成支撑使价格承压，但 7 月美国经济数据呈现恶化再次提振9 月美联储降 息可能性，政治局势也使避险需求再次升温，未来美国通胀等相关数据对市场的影响将不断增加带来单反波 动。技术面上国际金价持续盘中形成三角形态在 3450 美元的前高存在阻力缺乏较强突破的驱动，金价连跌后快 速修复整体仍维持偏强震荡，多单在 3300 美元（770 元）上方继续持有。 ...

一是高金价下需控制成本，今年上半年伦敦现货黄金价格上涨25.7%，央行暂缓增持避高位接盘； 来源：百利好环球官方微博 世界黄金协会发布的2025年二季度《全球黄金需求趋势报告》显示，二季度全球黄金需求总量（含场外交易）达1249吨，同比 增长3%；按价值算，同比大增45%至1320亿美元，创历史新高。 当下全球经济与地缘政治形势复杂，黄金需求展现韧性，但全球央行购金节奏放缓。二季度央行购金总量虽仍处高位，可增速 下滑，同比减少21%。购金前五的央行或主权基金为波兰央行、阿塞拜疆国家石油基金、土耳其央行、哈萨克斯坦共和国央行 和中国央行。 央行购金放缓是短期战术与长期战略平衡的结果。 二是储备目标阶段性达成，购金紧迫性降低，行为更审慎； 三是流动性管理需求，部分央行如哈萨克斯坦在高金价下战术性抛售，维持流动性。 此外，二季度下半段部分地缘政治局势缓和，市场避险情绪降温，也降低了央行短期内大规模购金的紧迫性。 受访专家称，央行购金节奏调整是"战术暂停"，地缘风险升级时很可能重拾增长。盘和林指出，黄金市场不单纯由央行购金驱 动，央行购金减少不一定影响金价波动，但若无全球经济风险扰动，会致金价横盘或下跌，影响投资人信 ...

Core Viewpoint - The SPDR Gold Trust, the world's largest gold ETF, reported a total holding of 954.8 tons of gold as of August 4, 2025, marking an increase of 1.72 tons from the previous trading day, indicating a reversal from prior reductions in holdings as gold prices have been rising [4]. Group 1: Gold ETF Holdings - As of August 4, 2025, SPDR Gold Trust's holdings reached 954.8 tons, up by 1.72 tons from the previous day [4]. - The increase in gold ETF holdings coincided with a rise in spot gold prices, which reached a high of $3,385.5 per ounce and closed at $3,373.47 per ounce, reflecting a gain of $10.43 or 0.31% [4]. Group 2: Market Reactions and Economic Indicators - Recent economic data showed a non-farm payroll increase of 73,000 in July, with downward revisions of 258,000 for May and June, leading to market volatility and a shift in expectations regarding Federal Reserve policy towards a more dovish stance [4]. - Concerns over the independence and credibility of economic data have been heightened following the dismissal of the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics chief by Trump and the resignation of Federal Reserve Governor Kaskel, which may influence market sentiment and gold prices [4][5]. Group 3: Future Price Predictions and Technical Analysis - Citigroup has revised its three-month gold price forecast from $3,300 to $3,500, citing deteriorating short-term economic growth and inflation outlooks in the U.S. [5]. - Technical analysis indicates a bullish outlook for gold, with the price having broken above the 21-day and 50-day moving averages, and the Relative Strength Index (RSI) suggesting potential for continued upward movement [5].

Core Viewpoint - Citigroup has raised its gold price forecast for the next three months from $3,300 to $3,500 per ounce, citing deteriorating growth and inflation outlooks for the U.S. economy [1] Economic Outlook - The bank anticipates that concerns over U.S. economic growth and tariff-related inflation will continue to escalate in the second half of 2025 [1] - A weakening dollar is expected to contribute to a moderate increase in gold prices, potentially reaching historical highs [1] Employment and Geopolitical Risks - Weak U.S. employment data in Q2 2025 is likely to heighten concerns regarding the credibility of the Federal Reserve and U.S. statistical data [1] - Rising geopolitical risks associated with the Russia-Ukraine conflict are also noted as a factor influencing gold prices [1] Demand for Gold - Since mid-2022, total demand for gold has increased by over one-third [1]

Regulatory Changes - The People's Bank of China has issued new regulations for anti-money laundering and counter-terrorism financing in the precious metals and gemstones industry, requiring institutions to report cash transactions exceeding 100,000 RMB or equivalent foreign currency within five working days starting from August 1, 2025 [1] Market Trends - International gold prices have been fluctuating around historical highs, with a notable decline of over 10% from peak levels in late July [2] - Demand for gold jewelry has decreased in recent months, with one retailer reporting a 15% drop in transaction volume in July compared to June [2] - The World Gold Council reported a 3% year-on-year increase in global gold demand in Q2 2025, but a significant 14% decline in gold jewelry consumption, nearing levels seen during the 2020 pandemic [2] Consumer Behavior - Consumers are showing a preference for investing in gold bars rather than high-priced gold jewelry, with a notable price threshold of 800 RMB per gram influencing purchasing decisions [2] - The overall consumer confidence remains low, which is expected to continue to pressure gold jewelry consumption in the second half of the year [3] Economic Outlook - Analysts predict that gold prices may remain stable within a narrow range in the second half of the year, influenced by macroeconomic uncertainties and potential geopolitical tensions that could enhance gold's appeal as a safe-haven asset [3]

盯盘神器·现货黄金：金价快速飙升 非农数据低于预期，金价快速飙升。盯盘神器（15分钟）显示，黄金上方最阻力位在3332.66-3339.51，为多个级别的阻力构成 压制。下方支撑位关注3307.51的保护。多头订单占比为52.48%，而空头占比为47.47%，多头明显占优。 ...

黄金支撑近在眼前，今晚非农会怎么走？反复波动下的金价，会借机走出单边趋势吗？点击查看分析！ 相关链接 黄金关键位已变化，非农有哪些信号？ ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report indicates that global gold demand reached 1249 tons in Q2 2025, a 3% year-on-year increase, driven primarily by strong investment demand [1] - Global gold ETF net inflows totaled 170 tons in Q2, with Asia contributing 70 tons and North America 73 tons, leading to a record total of 397 tons for the first half of the year, the highest since 2020 [1] - Investment demand for gold bars and coins in Q2 was 307 tons, an 11% increase year-on-year, with China seeing a significant surge of 44% to 115 tons, while the US experienced a 53% decline [1] Group 2 - Global jewelry demand fell by 14% year-on-year in Q2, nearing 2020's low levels, although the value of global jewelry consumption increased [1] - Central banks continued to purchase gold, adding 166 tons in Q2, despite a slowdown in the pace of purchases, with 95% of surveyed central banks expecting further increases in gold reserves over the next 12 months [1] - On the supply side, total gold supply reached 1249 tons in Q2, a 3% year-on-year increase, with recycled gold supply rising by 4% [2] Group 3 - The price of gold increased by 26% in USD terms in the first half of the year, with expectations of potential price stability in the second half due to uncertain macroeconomic conditions [2] - The attractiveness of gold as a safe-haven asset may increase if global economic or geopolitical situations worsen, potentially driving prices higher [2]

Group 1 - Hong Kong gold stocks are experiencing a decline, with Tongguan Gold falling over 8% for six consecutive days, and other companies like Zijin Mining, Lingbao Gold, Shandong Gold, and China Silver Group dropping over 4% [1] - The night session saw spot gold prices drop, briefly falling below $3,270 per ounce, with a nearly 2% decline during trading [3] - Chinese investors are shifting funds from gold ETFs to domestic stocks, with a record net outflow of approximately 3.2 billion yuan from four major domestic gold ETFs in July [3] Group 2 - The outflow of funds is primarily driven by individual investors, as gold has been trading within a narrow range, leading to decreased enthusiasm for gold investments [3] - Morgan Stanley indicates that the key to gold price increases lies in ETF inflows, which depend on the Federal Reserve meeting interest rate cut expectations and pushing down U.S. real yields [3] - In an optimistic scenario, gold prices are projected to reach a target of $3,675 per ounce by the end of the year, with expectations of hitting $4,000 per ounce by early next year [3]

小非农ADP，叠加美二季度GDP来袭，金价能否走出震荡困局？金十研究员高阳GMA行情分析中，点 击进入直播间 相关链接 ...