在美国总统特朗普宣布提名凯文·沃什为下一任美联储主席后，再加之中东地缘政治局势影响，全球加密货币市场持续承压，比特币和以太坊等 加密货币在周末出现大跳水。 据券商中国1日报道，过去的24小时内，币圈遭遇"血洗"。其中，比特币大幅下挫，盘中跌幅一度超过7%，最低下探至7.6万美元；第二大加密货币以太坊一 度下跌超11%，最低触及2256美元。据coinglass数据显示，最近24小时内，加密货币全网合约爆仓超25亿美元，爆仓人数高达42万人，其中超九成为多单爆 仓。 美国财富管理公司首席经济学家布莱恩·雅各布森认为，未来几天我们可能会看到更多加密货币抛售行为。除了加密货币，此前高涨的包括黄金、白银在内 的贵金属也在特朗普宣布提名沃什担任下一任美联储主席后遭猛烈抛售，随即价格暴跌。 专注于金融和加密货币新闻报道的意大利经济调查记者朱塞佩·奇科马斯科洛30日发文称，全球金融市场正在经历一场同步且剧烈的"抛售潮"。其统计称， 全球股市、贵金属、加密货币价格纷纷下跌，"一天之内，全球股票、贵金属和数字资产的市值总计蒸发超过6.5万亿美元。" "活着就行" 加密货币面临不确定性 据报道，全球最大的加密货币比特币一度跌至7 ...

Market Overview - The A-share market showed mixed performance with the Shanghai Composite Index down by 0.96%, Shenzhen Component down by 0.66%, and the ChiNext Index up by 1.27% [1] - The total trading volume in the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing markets was 28,624 billion yuan, a decrease of 3,970 billion yuan from the previous day [1] Sector Performance - AI hardware sectors saw a broad increase, with significant gains in optical modules, optical circuit switching, optical communication, optical chips, and advanced packaging [1] - The non-ferrous metals sector experienced a collective sharp decline, with industrial metals, rare earths, gold and jewelry, and other related sectors showing significant losses [1] - Traditional sectors like liquor and real estate, referred to as "old stocks," performed poorly after a recent surge [1] Investment Sentiment - The market is experiencing a significant risk rotation, with funds flowing into underperforming technology and agriculture sectors as a form of risk aversion [1] - Despite the sharp decline in the non-ferrous metals sector, it is believed to have medium to long-term investment value, with the performance of this sector closely tied to commodity prices, particularly gold [9] - The liquidity in the market remains robust, as indicated by the reduced trading volume being attributed to investors locking in positions rather than panic selling [5] Specific Stock Insights - The liquor index showed a significant decrease in trading volume, suggesting that large funds are not exiting but rather locking in positions, indicating potential for future gains [10][11] - The "old stocks" like liquor and real estate may present opportunities for short-term trading, with potential returns of 10%-20% based on technical signals [10]

Happy Friday, traders. Welcome to our weekly market wrap, where we take a look back at these last five trading days with a focus on the market news, economic data, and headlines that had the most impact on gold prices and other key correlated assets— and may continue to in the future. Here’s What You Need To Know: Gold surged after the Fed held rates steady, notching a fresh all-time high near $5,560 before momentum flipped sharply. A wave of profit-taking and thinning bids above $5,500 helped trigger ...

Market Overview - The overall trend of bulk commodities is characterized by significant fluctuations, with domestic commodities experiencing a two-day rise followed by a morning pullback, while international markets (precious metals, crude oil) also show substantial volatility, indicating intense competition between bulls and bears without clear directional continuation [3][23]. Strongest/Weakest Sectors and Core Products - Strong sectors include precious metals, with Shanghai silver rising 8.32% to set a new historical high, and international gold showing a V-shaped reversal with over 10% intraday volatility [4][23]. - The non-ferrous metals sector, represented by Shanghai copper and LME copper, also performed well, with Shanghai copper increasing by 6.18% and LME copper by 4.73%, supported by a decline in Chilean copper production [4][23]. - The energy and chemical sector saw Shanghai crude oil rise by 6%, driven by cost increases and geopolitical tensions from military exercises in the Strait of Hormuz [4][23]. - Conversely, the photovoltaic raw material sector, particularly polysilicon, faced a downturn, with a 6.18% drop in the polysilicon 2605 contract due to high inventory and demand exhaustion [4][23]. Core Trading Strategies and Execution - The strategy emphasizes profit-taking and risk management, with previous long positions being closed to lock in gains, while maintaining a light long position in PVC2605 and focusing on the bearish trend of polysilicon [6][24]. - Previous long positions in fuel, plastics, and non-ferrous metals achieved significant profits, with Shanghai copper and silver exceeding 63% gains [27][30]. - The current strategy for PVC2605 involves a light long position with a maximum allocation of 10% of total equity, aiming for a first profit target of 4970-4980 points and a subsequent target of 5100-5150 points [28][30]. Global Market Context - Internationally, macroeconomic tensions are evident, with contrasting positions from Trump advocating for interest rate cuts and Powell maintaining high rates, leading to increased volatility in the dollar [25]. - Geopolitical risks are heightened due to military exercises planned by Iran, which are expected to boost demand for oil and precious metals as safe-haven assets [25]. - The market is experiencing significant fluctuations, with international precious metals showing intraday volatility exceeding 8% and Bitcoin dropping over 6% [25]. Domestic Market Dynamics - Regulatory bodies have issued warnings regarding increased market uncertainty ahead of the Spring Festival, urging investors to act rationally [26]. - Domestic commodities are influenced by both internal and external market dynamics, with Shanghai silver and copper leading gains while polysilicon faces downward pressure due to high inventory levels [26]. Future Considerations - The company plans to maintain a cautious approach, focusing on light positions and closely monitoring the stop-loss levels for PVC2605, while tracking the bearish trend in polysilicon for potential short opportunities [33][37]. - The strategy will prioritize high liquidity and clear trend products, avoiding low volatility items with unclear supply-demand dynamics [36].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - For stock index futures, the index opportunities are better than individual stocks. The equity market was differentiated on Thursday, with the dividend and large-cap styles being strong, and the science and technology innovation and micro-cap styles being weak. The strong sectors were concentrated in real estate, media, and liquor. The cancellation of the "three red lines" had a positive impact on pro - cyclical sectors. There is a concentration of profit - making effects, and it is recommended to focus on the price - increase chain and prioritize the allocation of IC long positions [1][6]. - For stock index options, there was an intraday style switch, and option trading volume rebounded. After the market style switch, the skewness of each variety remained low, and the volatility remained high. It is recommended to wait for the opportunity to sell options and hold long call options for the time being [2][6]. - For treasury bond futures, the short - end of the bond market showed a strong trend. The central bank's net injection of liquidity supported the short - end of the bond market, while the rising risk appetite in the equity market was negative for the long - end. The long - end trend is uncertain and may remain volatile. Short - term strategies may focus on arbitrage and the convergence opportunity of the 30 - 10Y treasury bond term spread [3][7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs (1) Stock Index Futures - **Market Situation**: On Thursday, the equity market was differentiated. The dividend and large - cap styles were strong, and the science and technology innovation and micro - cap styles were weak. The strong sectors were in real estate, media, and liquor. The cancellation of the "three red lines" was an important factor for the market rebound. There were more falling stocks than rising stocks, with nearly a thousand stocks falling more than 3%. The profit - making effect was concentrated [1][6]. - **Outlook and Suggestion**: Apart from the inflation theme, there is no core logical change. In the context of a weakening US dollar, it is recommended to focus on the price - increase chain and prioritize the allocation of IC long positions [1][6]. (2) Stock Index Options - **Market Situation**: The underlying market oscillated in the morning and had a style switch in the afternoon. Large - cap blue - chips represented by the Shanghai 50 and CSI 300 rose significantly, while CSI 500 and CSI 1000 - related varieties fell. Option trading volume rebounded. The 50ETF volatility did not rise significantly after the increase, and the seller's cautious attitude wavered [2][6]. - **Outlook and Suggestion**: After the market movement, the skewness of each variety remained low, and the volatility remained high. It is recommended to wait for the opportunity to sell options and hold long call options for the time being [2][6]. (3) Treasury Bond Futures - **Market Situation**: Most of the main contracts of treasury bond futures rose. The yields of major inter - bank interest - rate bonds were differentiated, with long - term bonds being weak and short - term bonds being strong, and the yield curve steepened. The central bank's net injection of liquidity supported the short - end of the bond market, while the rising equity market was negative for the long - end [3][7]. - **Outlook and Suggestion**: The central bank still cares about the money market, and the end - of - month factor may have limited impact on the money market. The long - end trend is uncertain and may remain volatile. Short - term strategies may focus on arbitrage and the convergence opportunity of the 30 - 10Y treasury bond term spread [3][7].

Group 1 - The improvement in risk appetite is largely dependent on the decline in real interest rates, credit expansion, and the improvement of corporate earnings [1][11] - The current market's risk appetite is more influenced by institutional behavior rather than household actions, with weakened housing demand not translating into a chase for risk assets [1][11] - Despite nominal interest rates on deposits reaching historical lows, the willingness of residents to save remains at a historical high due to high real interest rates when inflation is excluded [2] Group 2 - Future market risk appetite may exhibit characteristics similar to macroeconomic counter-cyclical adjustments, with marginal adjustments in the cost-effectiveness of stocks and bonds [6] - The geopolitical risks are expected to drive gold prices, but ordinary residents face challenges in timing their investments in this market [9] - The upcoming maturity of a large volume of fixed-term deposits is likely to stimulate demand for asset reallocation among residents, supported by institutional behaviors that guide savings into the market [11]

Core Viewpoint - Bitcoin is experiencing a slight increase as investors await the Federal Reserve's decision, with expectations that interest rates will remain unchanged and a focus on potential signals regarding future rate cuts [1] Group 1: Market Trends - Bitcoin has recovered slightly from a five-week low reached earlier in the week but remains within a recent trading range [1] - Analysts from Saxo Bank noted that the price movements indicate the market is digesting gains rather than accelerating upward [1] Group 2: Investor Sentiment - Stable prices and cautious capital flows suggest that investors are maintaining exposure while remaining sensitive to macro signals, particularly the upcoming Federal Reserve decision [1] - Current trends indicate that cryptocurrencies are likely to respond to changes in risk appetite among investors [1] Group 3: Price Movement - According to data from the London Stock Exchange Group, Bitcoin rose by 0.4% to $89,344 [1]

格隆汇1月28日｜高盛报告指出，尽管地缘政治风险上升，但投资者风险偏好仍处高位，显示市场对宏 观风险消化较为充分。根据该行的最新仓位与情绪指标，投资者乐观情绪目前位于约67百分位水平，其 专有风险偏好指数也升至2021年4月以来最高，凸显出投资者继续青睐风险资产的程度。当前资金正全 面流向高风险资产，股票配置保持积极，投资者持续超配并扩大全球布局，未转向防御。美国散户的持 续参与支撑了市场广度，同时国际资金加速流入欧洲、日本及新兴市场。这表明投资者对全球增长前景 信心增强，正从集中配置美国转向分散布局，更愿意增配可能受益于周期复苏、估值优势或政策改善的 地区。 ...

格隆汇1月27日｜高盛集团策略师表示，随着对经济的乐观情绪抵消地缘政治的不确定性，投资者的风 险偏好情绪创五年来新高。高盛策略师在报告中写道，其风险偏好指标上周触及1.09，为2021年以来最 高，是1991年有数据以来的第98百分位。"如此高企的风险偏好水平属罕见，"高盛团队表示，历史上只 有另外六次高于1.0的情况。不过，这未必意味着应转向看空。他们称，宏观环境具有支持性可维系股 票回报。 ...

Group 1 - The current market environment is seeing a renewed interest in safe havens, with discussions around whether Bitcoin will recover and attract investment away from U.S. equities [1] - Precious metals, particularly gold and silver, have experienced significant price increases, with gold rising 75% recently, raising questions about the sustainability of these gains [5][6] - There has been a notable influx of capital into the precious metals sector, indicating a shift in investor sentiment towards safety trades [4] Group 2 - The performance of gold and silver is being analyzed separately, with gold seen as having macroeconomic support due to its accumulation by central banks, while silver's recent popularity may not be sustainable [6][7] - Historical comparisons show that gold's cumulative returns have recently surpassed those of the S&P 500, which raises concerns about market health and the nature of these assets [7]