Macroeconomic Overview - In July, US inflation did not exceed expectations, with the CPI year-on-year at 2.7%, unchanged from the previous value and slightly below the expected 2.8%. The core CPI year-on-year rose to 3.1%, up from 2.9% and above the expected 3% [1] - The PPI data for July showed a significant increase, with a year-on-year rise of 3.3%, surpassing the expected 2.2% and the previous value of 2.3%. The core PPI also increased to 3.7%, exceeding both the expected 3% and the previous 2.6% [1] - Retail sales in July maintained resilience, with a month-on-month increase of 0.5%, below the expected 0.6% but revised up from a previous 0.6% [1] Consumer Confidence and Inflation Expectations - The University of Michigan's consumer confidence index for August recorded an initial value of 58.6, lower than the expected 62 and the previous value of 61.7. The one-year inflation expectation index rose to 4.9%, above the expected 4.4% and the previous 4.5% [2] Market Performance - For the week of August 11-15, major indices showed positive performance, with the S&P Oil & Gas Index up 0.92%, the Nasdaq 100 Index up 0.43%, and the S&P 500 Index up 0.93%. Among the 11 sectors covered by the S&P 500, 7 sectors increased, with healthcare leading at 4.62% [3] Investment Direction - US stocks experienced an upward trend, supported by slightly lower July CPI and core CPI, along with PPI exceeding expectations. The earnings per share (EPS) for S&P 500 companies grew by 11% year-on-year, surpassing market expectations by 4%, indicating relative economic stability in Q2 [5] - The market continues to anticipate interest rate cuts, with expectations remaining stable compared to the previous week. The geopolitical situation has shown signs of easing, which may enhance market risk appetite [5]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry - wide investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - The second - round China - US trade talks extended the tariff exemption clause, and the Politburo meeting's policy tone was consistent with the previous one. The TMT sector rose strongly, and the stock index increased with heavy trading volume. However, the improvement in corporate earnings needs to be verified by the upcoming mid - year report data [2]. - Multiple negative factors such as the central bank's mention of "preventing idle funds from circulating" in the second - quarter monetary policy report, the strong performance of the stock market, and the tightening of funds during the tax payment period led to a significant decline in bond futures. The bond market sentiment remains weak [2]. - The meeting of US, Ukrainian, and European leaders brought hope for easing the Russia - Ukraine conflict, which increased risk appetite and caused precious metals to rise and then fall. Gold and silver prices are in a range - bound state [2]. - The container shipping index (European line) is in a weak and volatile state, and the short position of the October contract should be continued to hold [2]. - Steel prices are supported due to limited inventory accumulation in steel mills and upcoming production restrictions. Iron ore follows the price fluctuations of steel, while some coal prices are showing signs of weakness [2]. - The prices of non - ferrous metals such as copper, aluminum, and zinc are in a narrow - range or weak - range fluctuation, and different trading strategies are recommended for each metal [2]. - The energy and chemical sectors show different trends. Some products are in a range - bound state, while others are facing supply - demand pressures and are recommended for short - selling or other strategies [2]. - In the agricultural products sector, different products have different trends, such as the upward trend of palm oil and the weakening trend of corn [2]. - Special commodities like glass are in a weak state, and new energy products such as polysilicon and lithium carbonate need to pay attention to policy and supply - related factors [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Financial - **Stock Index**: The stock index rose with heavy volume, but the improvement in earnings needs mid - year report data verification. It is recommended to sell put options on MO2509 with an exercise price around 6600 at high prices and have a moderately bullish view [2]. - **Treasury Bonds**: Multiple negative factors led to a decline in bond futures. The bond market is in an unfavorable situation, and it is recommended to stay on the sidelines in the short term [2]. - **Precious Metals**: Gold is recommended to build a bullish spread strategy through call options at the low - price stage after price corrections. Silver is recommended to maintain a low - buying strategy or build a bullish spread strategy with options [2]. Black - **Steel**: Steel prices are supported due to limited inventory accumulation in steel mills and upcoming production restrictions. The 10 - month contracts of hot - rolled coils and rebar should pay attention to the support levels of 3400 yuan and 3200 yuan respectively [2]. - **Iron Ore**: The shipping volume increased, and the port inventory and port clearance improved. It follows the price fluctuations of steel, and it is recommended to short at high prices [2]. - **Coking Coal**: After the exchange's intervention, the futures price peaked and declined, and some coal prices weakened. It is recommended to short at high prices [2]. - **Coke**: The sixth - round price increase of mainstream coking plants has been implemented, and the seventh - round price increase is in progress. It is recommended to short at high prices [2]. Non - ferrous - **Copper**: The main contract fluctuates within the range of 78000 - 79500 yuan [2]. - **Aluminum Oxide**: The main contract fluctuates within the range of 3000 - 3300 yuan [2]. - **Aluminum**: The price fluctuated downward due to the additional tariff on aluminum. The main contract should pay attention to the pressure level of 21000 yuan and fluctuates within the range of 20000 - 21000 yuan [2]. - **Zinc**: The main contract fluctuates within the range of 22000 - 23000 yuan [2]. - **Tin**: It is recommended to wait and see, paying attention to the import situation of Burmese tin ore [2]. - **Nickel**: The main contract fluctuates within the range of 118000 - 126000 yuan [2]. - **Stainless Steel**: The main contract fluctuates in a narrow range, with cost support but demand drag, and fluctuates within the range of 12800 - 13500 yuan [2]. Energy and Chemical - **Crude Oil**: The short - term geopolitical risk is the main factor. It is recommended to stay on the sidelines for single - side trading and expand the spread between the October - November/December contracts. The support levels for WTI, Brent, and SC are given [2]. - **Urea**: The Indian tender news has a certain boost to the market. If there are no more positive factors after the price rebound, it is recommended to short at high prices [2]. - **PX**: The supply - demand pressure is not significant, and the demand is expected to improve. It is recommended to go long at the lower end of the 6600 - 6900 range and expand the PX - SC spread at a low level [2]. - **PTA**: The processing fee is low, and the cost support is limited. It is recommended to go long at the lower end of the 4600 - 4800 range and conduct a reverse spread operation on TA1 - 5 at high prices [2]. - **Short - fiber**: The supply - demand situation is expected to improve, but there is no obvious short - term driver. It is recommended to try to go long at the lower end of the 6300 - 6500 range [2]. - **Bottle - grade PET**: The production reduction effect is obvious, and the inventory is slowly decreasing. It is recommended to go long on the processing fee at a low price [2]. - **Ethanol**: The supply of MEG is gradually returning, and it is expected to follow the fluctuations of commodities. It is in the range of 4300 - 4500 yuan [2]. - **Caustic Soda**: The main downstream buyers are purchasing well, and the spot price is stable. It is recommended to wait and see [2]. - **PVC**: The supply - demand pressure is still high, and it is recommended to take a short - selling approach [2]. - **Benzene**: The supply - demand expectation has improved, but the driving force is limited due to high inventory. It follows the fluctuations of oil prices and styrene [2]. - **Styrene**: The supply - demand situation has marginally improved, but the cost support is limited. It is recommended to short on rebounds within the 7200 - 7400 range [2]. - **Synthetic Rubber**: The cost is in a range - bound state, and the supply - demand is loose. It is recommended to hold the seller position of the short - term put option BR2509 - P - 11400 [2]. - **LLDPE**: The basis remains stable, and the trading volume is acceptable. It is in a short - term volatile state [2]. - **PP**: The spot price has little change, and the trading volume has weakened. It is recommended to take profit on the short position in the 7200 - 7300 range [2]. - **Methanol**: The inventory is continuously tightening, and the price is weakening. It is recommended to conduct range - bound operations within 2350 - 2550 [2]. Agricultural Products - **Soybeans and Related Products**: The cost support is strong, and a long - term bullish expectation remains. It is recommended to arrange long positions for the January contract [2]. - **Pigs**: The spot price is in a low - level volatile state, and attention should be paid to the rhythm of production release [2]. - **Corn**: The supply pressure is emerging, and the futures price is in a weak state. It is recommended to short at high prices [2]. - **Palm Oil**: The Malaysian palm oil price is rising, and the domestic palm oil price is following the upward trend. It is expected to reach the 10000 - yuan mark in the short term [2]. - **Sugar**: The overseas supply outlook is loose. It is recommended to reduce the short position established at the previous high price [2]. - **Cotton**: The downstream market is weak. It is recommended to reduce the short position [2]. - **Eggs**: The spot price is weak. It is bearish in the long - term [2]. - **Apples**: The sales are slow. Attention should be paid to the price trend of early - maturing apples. The main contract is around 8250 [2]. - **Jujubes**: The price is stable. It is recommended to be cautious when chasing high prices and focus on short - term trading [2]. - **Soda Ash**: The supply is at a high level, and the fundamentals are weakening. It is recommended to try short - selling at high prices [2]. Special Commodities - **Glass**: The industry is in a negative feedback cycle, and the futures price is weak. It is recommended to hold the short position [2]. - **Rubber**: Attention should be paid to the raw material price increase during the peak production period [2]. - **Industrial Silicon**: Attention should be paid to the change in production capacity [2]. New Energy - **Polysilicon**: Attention should be paid to the change in policy expectations [2]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The supply is subject to continuous disturbances, and the fundamentals are marginally improving. It is recommended to be cautious and try to go long with a light position at a low price [2].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Views of the Report - Last week, the market continued to rise, with the Shanghai Composite Index breaking through 3700 points and overseas indices in the UK, US, and Japan hitting record highs. The strong market is supported by a positive macro - environment, including no significant escalation of trade frictions, no obvious negative policy turn, and positive liquidity expectations before the Fed's September rate cut. The rising stock market has attracted margin trading and new - account funds, forming a positive feedback loop [1]. - The domestic economic supply and demand are both weak in July due to the policy shift towards anti - involution and the weak demand side such as real estate. The central bank's second - quarter monetary policy report shows a trend of policy shifting towards quality and efficiency, with less emphasis on traditional growth - stabilizing and capital - market - related structural tools. However, the current market risk appetite is strong, and the short - term impact is limited. The market is expected to maintain a bullish pattern, and the trends of relevant variables should be noted [2]. - Factors to watch include domestic policy and economic changes, and the Fed's policy direction [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Spot Market Review - Most industries in the CSI 300 and CSI 500 indices rose last week. In the CSI 300 index, the information and telecommunications sectors had relatively high increases, while in the CSI 500 index, the financial real - estate and information sectors led the gains [10]. 3.2. Stock Index Futures Market Review - Last week, the IM futures contract had the largest increase and the largest amplitude among the main stock index futures contracts. The trading volume and open interest of stock index futures both rebounded [12][13][18]. 3.3. Index Valuation Tracking - As of August 15th, the TTM price - to - earnings ratios of the Shanghai Composite Index, CSI 300 Index, SSE 50 Index, CSI 500 Index, and CSI 1000 Index were 15.89 times, 13.46 times, 11.49 times, 31.81 times, and 43.9 times respectively [21][22]. 3.4. Market Capital Flow Review - The balance of margin trading in the two markets and the share of newly - established equity - biased funds are presented. The capital interest rate price rebounded last week, and the central bank had a net capital injection [25]. 4. Strategy Recommendations 4.1. Short - Term Strategy - The intraday trading frequency can refer to the 1 - minute and 5 - minute K - line charts. The stop - loss and take - profit levels for IF, IH, IC, and IM can be set at 76/95 points, 58/31 points, 66/121 points, and 84/142 points respectively [4]. 4.2. Trend Strategy - Adopt a bullish mindset. The core operating range of the IF2509 main contract is expected to be between 4083 and 4294 points; for the IH2509 main contract, it is between 2775 and 2903 points; for the IC2509 main contract, it is between 6335 and 6760 points; and for the IM2509 main contract, it is between 6838 and 7299 points. Also, maintain a strategy of shorting IF (or IH) and going long on IC (or IM) [4][5].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report indicates that the bond market is currently dominated by risk appetite, leading to a steepening adjustment in yields. This is primarily influenced by the performance of risk assets such as equities and commodities, which have shown a trend of upward movement [3][8][16] - The report highlights four specific scenarios that contribute to the current dominance of risk appetite in the bond market: 1) A trend in risk assets like equities and commodities; 2) A lack of clear direction from policy statements; 3) Interest rates being at historical lows, reducing attractiveness; 4) External market influences affecting sentiment [3][16][21] - The report suggests that if the influence of these factors diminishes, the market will eventually revert to being driven by fundamentals and liquidity conditions. Key indicators to watch include the operational space of monetary policy in the second half of the year and whether social financing (社融) shows signs of a turning point [3][16] Group 2 - The report notes that while there is an increasing expectation of "absence of total easing" in the short term, the core tone of monetary policy remains one of "moderate easing" and "maintaining ample liquidity," indicating that policy space has not been closed off [5][20] - It emphasizes that the urgency for total easing in the third quarter has decreased, with a shift in focus towards structural policies and stabilizing prices. However, the possibility of total policy re-engagement in the fourth quarter remains, especially if the fundamentals come under pressure [5][20] - The report also points out that the current market's expectations for monetary easing are relatively low, suggesting that the likelihood of a significant market adjustment similar to earlier in the year is reduced [5][20][21] Group 3 - The report indicates that the short-term market is influenced by insufficient release of risk appetite and institutional sentiment, leading to weaker performance. However, it cautions against overemphasizing concerns about an upward turning point in interest rates [6][33] - It highlights that the growth rate of social financing is likely to peak in the fourth quarter, and price increases may be a result of financing expansion rather than a sign of a new cycle [6][33] - The report concludes that while the market's expectations for monetary easing are low, the actual probability of easing remains significant, suggesting that interest rates may form a mid-term top after the current pullback [6][33]

Economic Overview - External conditions have improved while internal data has weakened, with inflation (PPI) down 3.6% year-on-year, below market expectations[22] - New loans in July turned negative at -426.3 billion CNY, indicating weakened credit demand from both households and enterprises[22] - Retail sales growth fell from 4.8% in June to 3.7% in July, and fixed asset investment growth dropped to 1.6% year-on-year for January to July[22] Real Estate Market - Second-hand housing prices in first-tier cities saw a month-on-month decline deepening from 0.7% to 1.0%, while second and third-tier cities maintained a decline of 0.5%[23] Bond Market Dynamics - Long-term bond yields have risen sharply, with the 10-year government bond yield reaching 1.75% (+5.4bp) and the 30-year yield at 2.00% (+7.3bp)[12] - The market is experiencing a bearish sentiment, with institutions increasingly shorting bonds amid high risk aversion[30] Investment Strategies - The bond market may face three scenarios: potential monetary easing by the central bank, a stock market correction undermining risk appetite, or continued high risk preference leading to a revaluation of bonds[35] - The 10-year government bond yield is seen as a psychological threshold at 1.75%, with a potential for a sharp rise if breached[36] Financial Products and Performance - The scale of wealth management products decreased by 120.6 billion CNY to 31.20 trillion CNY, reflecting a shift in investor sentiment towards equities[39] - The proportion of wealth management products with negative returns increased to 6.73%, indicating rising risk in the sector[45]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The Chinese economy is in a marginal de - leveraging process, with the liability growth rate of the real - sector expected to decline. The government aims to stabilize the macro - leverage ratio, and the monetary policy will generally remain neutral and difficult to be continuously loose. The market is currently affected by risk preference, and the subsequent trends of risk preference, economic recovery, and the US economy need to be focused on [2][3][7] - In the context of the contraction of the national balance sheet, the allocation of financial assets should adopt a dumbbell - shaped strategy. The bond market is the large base, and the stock market is the small head. The stock allocation strategy is dividend plus growth, and the bond allocation strategy is duration plus credit - sinking [25] - In the contraction cycle, the equity - bond ratio favors equities to a limited extent, and the value style is more likely to be dominant. Red - dividend stocks with characteristics of non - expansion, good profitability, and survival are recommended [12][67] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 National Balance Sheet Analysis - **Liability Side**: In July 2025, the liability growth rate of the real sector was 9.0%, with a lower - than - expected rebound. It is expected to decline to 8.9% in August and further to 8% by the end of the year. The government's liability growth rate is also expected to decline from 15.7% in July to 14.8% in August and 12.5% by the end of the year. The money market has tightened marginally, and the peak of the money market in August was likely in the first week [2][3][21] - **Monetary Policy**: The trading volume of funds decreased last week, and the price was stable. The one - year Treasury yield rose to 1.37%, and the term spread widened. The estimated lower limit of the one - year Treasury yield is 1.3%, the ten - year Treasury yield is about 1.6%, and the thirty - year Treasury yield is about 1.8% [3][22] - **Asset Side**: After a brief stabilization in June, the physical volume data declined again in July. The annual real economic growth target for 2025 is about 5%, and the nominal economic growth target is about 4.9%. Whether this will be the central target for the next 1 - 2 years needs further observation [4][23] 3.2 Stock - Bond Ratio and Stock - Bond Style - **Market Performance Last Week**: The money market tightened marginally, but risk preference increased. Stocks rose, and bonds fell. The equity growth style was dominant, and the stock - bond ratio favored stocks, breaking through the previous high on August 15th [6][26] - **Future Outlook**: The trend of risk preference is uncertain. There are three possible scenarios: range - bound fluctuations, a short - term upward trend, or a fundamental change in the subjective weighting of Chinese profitability. A portfolio of growth - type equity assets and long - term bonds is recommended, with a 70% position in the CSI 1000 Index and a 30% position in the 30 - year Treasury ETF [10][11][29] 3.3 Industry Recommendation - **Industry Performance Review**: The A - share market rose this week. The communication, electronics, non - bank finance, power equipment, and computer sectors had the largest increases, while the bank, steel, textile and apparel, coal, and public utilities sectors had the largest declines [35] - **Industry Crowding and Trading Volume**: As of August 15th, the top five crowded industries were electronics, computer, power equipment, machinery, and non - bank finance. The trading volume of the whole A - share market increased this week, with non - bank finance, real estate, and other sectors having the highest growth rates [36][38] - **Industry Valuation and Profitability**: The PE (TTM) of the comprehensive, communication, and other sectors increased the most this week, while the bank, steel, and other sectors declined. Industries with high 2024 full - year profit forecasts and relatively low current valuations include banks, coal, and oil and petrochemicals [41][42] - **Industry Prosperity**: External demand generally declined. The global manufacturing PMI decreased in July, and the CCFI index fell. Domestic indicators such as port throughput and industrial capacity utilization showed mixed trends [46] - **Public Fund Market Review**: In the second week of August, most active public equity funds outperformed the CSI 300. As of August 15th, the net asset value of active public equity funds was slightly higher than that in Q4 2024 [62] - **Industry Recommendation**: In the contraction cycle, the equity - bond ratio favors equities to a limited extent, and the value style is more likely to be dominant. An A + H red - dividend portfolio of 20 stocks and an A - share portfolio of 20 stocks, mainly concentrated in banks, telecommunications, and other industries, are recommended [12][67]

Core Viewpoint - China has increased its holdings of US Treasury bonds, marking a shift in investment strategy amid changing economic conditions [1][3]. Group 1: US Treasury Holdings - As of June, foreign investors held a total of $9.1277 trillion in US Treasury bonds, an increase of $80.2 billion from the previous month [1]. - China holds $756.4 billion in US Treasury bonds, having increased its holdings by $1 billion, marking the first increase since March [1][3]. - Japan remains the largest holder of US Treasury bonds at $1.1476 trillion, with an increase of $12.6 billion, while the UK holds $858.1 billion, having increased by $48.7 billion [3]. Group 2: Foreign Investment Trends - In June, foreign investors net increased their holdings of US securities by $77.8 billion, with private foreign investors contributing $7.3 billion and official foreign investors increasing by $70.5 billion [1]. - The net increase in US long-term securities was $192.3 billion, primarily driven by private foreign investors who net increased by $154.6 billion [1]. Group 3: Economic Outlook and Market Dynamics - A report from CICC suggests that if US stock market momentum weakens, risk appetite may decline, potentially leading to increased capital inflows into US Treasury bonds [2]. - The US economy is expected to slow down, which, combined with a reassessment of risk appetite and rising expectations for interest rate cuts, may rejuvenate demand for US Treasury bonds [2]. - Concerns over stagflation due to tariffs and fiscal sustainability may lead to a weaker dollar, impacting the volatility of US stocks and bonds [3].

Global Market Overview - In July, global asset prices increased due to the passing of the "Big and Beautiful" bill, which reduced policy uncertainty and enhanced global risk appetite, leading to significant gains in equity markets, particularly in the Asia-Pacific region [1][8] - The "Big and Beautiful" bill, passed on July 3, includes various spending adjustments across defense, border security, energy policy, and social welfare, with plans to reduce taxes by $4 trillion and cut spending by at least $1.5 trillion over the next decade [2][17] - Major stock indices in China, Hong Kong, the US, and Europe recorded positive returns, with the CSI 300 index rising by 3.5%, the Hang Seng index by 2.9%, the S&P 500 by 2.2%, the Nikkei by 1.4%, and the Stoxx Europe 600 by 0.9% [2][17] Asset Flow Analysis - In July, there was a significant slowdown in inflows to money market funds, with approximately $63 billion flowing in compared to $156 billion in June, while government bonds saw accelerated inflows [3][26] - Developed market equities attracted $43 billion in July, up from $39 billion in June, while emerging market equities saw a decrease in inflows, dropping to $5 billion from $8 billion [3][26] - In the US equity market, there was a notable outflow from technology and healthcare sectors, while financials, industrials, and utilities saw inflows [33][37] China Market Insights - In July, China emerged as a major recipient of inflows in the emerging market fixed income sector, with $83.78 billion flowing into Chinese fixed income funds, accounting for 54.81% of total inflows [4][44] - However, the Chinese equity market experienced a cumulative outflow of $15.70 billion in July, contrasting with the inflow of $3.13 billion in passive equity funds, indicating a shift in investor sentiment [4][28] - The passive equity funds in emerging markets saw a reversal, with inflows of $113.26 billion in July compared to outflows of $139.79 billion in June [4][43] Global Fund Allocation Trends - As of June, the allocation of global funds to the US increased to 61.0%, while the allocation to China remained stable at 25.1%, indicating potential for further growth [5][28] - The allocation of emerging market funds to China decreased slightly to 42.7%, nearing historical averages, while Taiwan and South Korea saw increased allocations [5][28] - The overall trend indicates a reallocation of global funds towards US equities, with a corresponding decrease in allocations to European and Japanese markets [5][42]

Group 1: Gold Market Overview - The gold market is experiencing intense competition with a delicate balance in price movements, as spot gold struggles to maintain upward momentum around $3,375, facing selling pressure [1] - Optimistic expectations regarding US-China trade relations and positive signals from US-Russia discussions are boosting risk appetite, which in turn suppresses safe-haven demand for precious metals [1] Group 2: Silver Market Performance - Silver prices continue to rise, trading at $38.58 per ounce, with a gain of approximately 0.28%, approaching recent highs [1] - The silver market is showing strong momentum, with potential targets at $39.00 and historical highs of $39.53, while a break below $38.00 could pressure bullish positions [4] Group 3: Federal Reserve Insights - US Treasury Secretary Becerra suggests that the Federal Reserve's interest rates should be 150-175 basis points lower, indicating a potential for a 50 basis point cut starting in September [2] - There is skepticism among analysts regarding the likelihood of a 50 basis point cut in September, with the need for a weak non-farm payroll report to support such a move [2] Group 4: Technical Analysis of Gold - The recent high of approximately $3,375 may act as a resistance level for gold, with potential upward targets at $3,400 and further resistance at $3,409-$3,410 [3] - If gold prices fall below the support level of $3,242, it may lead to further declines towards the $3,300 mark, indicating a shift towards a bearish outlook [3] Group 5: Technical Analysis of Silver - Silver prices have reached a three-week high of $38.65, with buyers clearing previous resistance levels and eyeing a test of $40.00 [4] - The Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicates bullish momentum, but there is a risk of divergence in the MACD, which could lead to a decline if prices fall below $38.00 [4]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The inflation data in the US in July was lower than expected, leading to an increase in global risk appetite. The expectation of a Fed rate cut in September has strengthened, and the US President and Treasury Secretary have called for rate cuts. In China, the manufacturing PMI in July decreased, economic growth slowed down, but policies such as personal consumption loan fiscal subsidies and the extension of the Sino - US tariff truce period may boost domestic risk appetite. [2] - Different asset classes have different trends: the stock index is expected to fluctuate strongly at a high level in the short term, the treasury bond may experience a high - level shock and correction, and different commodity sectors have different short - term trends. [2] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Macro - financial - **Overseas**: The US CPI annual rate in July was 2.7%, the core CPI annual rate reached a five - month high at 3.1%. The expectation of a Fed rate cut in September has strengthened. The US dollar index declined, and global risk appetite increased. [2] - **Domestic**: China's manufacturing PMI in July was 49.3%, down 0.4 percentage points from the previous month. The trade deficit decreased, and the policy of personal consumption loan fiscal subsidies may boost consumption. The Sino - US tariff truce was extended by 90 days, and domestic risk appetite continued to rise. [2] - **Asset Performance**: The stock index is expected to fluctuate strongly at a high level in the short term, with a short - term cautious long position. The treasury bond is expected to experience a high - level shock and correction, with cautious observation. Different commodity sectors have different trends, with short - term cautious long or observation strategies. [2] Stock Index - Driven by sectors such as brain - computer interface, lithography machine, and diversified finance, the domestic stock market continued to rise. [3] - The economic growth in July slowed down, but policies may boost consumption, and the short - term macro - upward drive has increased. The market focuses on domestic incremental stimulus policies and trade negotiation progress. Follow - up attention should be paid to Sino - US trade negotiations and domestic incremental policies, with a short - term cautious long position. [3][4] Precious Metals - On Tuesday, precious metals fluctuated at a high level. The inflation data in the US in July was mixed, supporting the probability of a rate cut in September. The economic data continued to weaken, and the market expected a 94.8% probability of a Fed rate cut in September. Gold has a long - term bullish outlook, and long - term positions can be considered when it pulls back to the support level. [5] Black Metals - **Steel**: The spot and futures prices of steel continued to rebound on Tuesday. The market risk appetite increased due to the extension of the Sino - US tariff truce. The actual demand continued to weaken, and the inventory increased. The scope of production restrictions expanded, and the steel market was dominated by the macro - logic in the short term, with prices fluctuating strongly. [6] - **Iron Ore**: The spot and futures prices of iron ore continued to strengthen on Tuesday. The scope of production restrictions in the north expanded, and the iron ore supply decreased. The steel mills mainly replenished inventory on a need - basis. The iron ore price is expected to fluctuate within a range in the short term. [6][7] - **Silicon Manganese/Silicon Iron**: The spot prices of silicon manganese and silicon iron were flat on Tuesday, and the futures prices rebounded slightly. The demand for ferroalloys was acceptable, and the production in some regions increased. The ferroalloy price is expected to fluctuate within a range in the short term. [8] Chemicals - **Soda Ash**: The main contract of soda ash was strong on Tuesday, driven by the expectation of supply tightening. The supply of soda ash increased, and the pattern of oversupply remained. The demand support was weak, and the profit decreased. The upward space of soda ash is limited. [9] - **Glass**: The main contract of glass fluctuated within a range on Tuesday. The daily melting volume of glass remained stable. The market expected production cuts due to policies. The terminal demand was weak, and the profit decreased. The glass price is expected to fluctuate within a range in the short term. [10][11] Non - ferrous Metals and New Energy - **Copper**: The Sino - US tariff truce was extended by 90 days, and the risk appetite rebounded. The Fed's dovish stance was strengthened. The Comex copper inventory was at a high level, and the terminal demand faced the risk of weakening. [12] - **Aluminum**: The closing price of aluminum rose slightly on Tuesday, affected by the general rise in commodities and the sharp rise in alumina. The fundamentals of aluminum weakened, with inventory accumulation. The medium - term upward space is limited. [12] - **Aluminum Alloy**: The supply of scrap aluminum was tight, and the production cost of recycled aluminum plants increased. The demand was weak in the off - season. The price is expected to fluctuate strongly in the short term, but the upward space is limited. [12] - **Tin**: The combined operating rate of Yunnan and Jiangxi increased slightly. The supply of ore was tight, but the reduction in refined tin production was lower than expected. The terminal demand was weak, and the inventory decreased. The tin price is expected to fluctuate in the short term. [13] - **Lithium Carbonate**: The price of lithium carbonate opened high and closed low on Tuesday. The supply was affected by the suspension of a mine, and the market was bullish. The monthly supply - demand pattern changed from surplus to shortage. The trading margin and price limit were adjusted. [14] - **Industrial Silicon**: The price of industrial silicon decreased on Tuesday. It was affected by the high price of polysilicon, cost factors, and market sentiment, and fluctuated strongly. [15][16] - **Polysilicon**: The price of polysilicon rose on Tuesday. The increase in warehouse receipts reflected the willingness of enterprises for hedging and delivery. The photovoltaic industry had expectations, and the price was supported by the spot price. It is expected to fluctuate at a high level in the short term. [16] Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: The market evaluated the impact of the extension of the Sino - US tariff truce and the potential impact of the US - Russia summit. The lack of major drivers led to a weak - oscillation pattern in oil prices. [17] - **Asphalt**: The cost of crude oil stabilized, and the asphalt price fluctuated slightly. The inventory removal was limited, and it is expected to maintain a weak - oscillation pattern in the short term. [17][18] - **PX**: The PX price fluctuated narrowly. The PTA device had production cuts, and the PX device load was limited. It is expected to oscillate in the short term, waiting for changes in the PTA device. [18] - **PTA**: The downstream filament planned to continue production cuts. The PTA basis increased slightly, and the demand was limited. The processing fee was low, and the supply pressure decreased. It is expected to balance supply and demand in August and oscillate within a range. [18] - **Ethylene Glycol**: The price increased slightly with the coal - based cost. The inventory pressure was still high, and the supply was expected to increase. It is expected to oscillate in the short term, with limited upward space. [19] - **Short Fiber**: The price of short fiber decreased due to the weakening of the sector. The terminal orders were average, and the inventory increased. It is expected to be short - biased in the medium term. [20][21] - **Methanol**: The price of methanol in Taicang fluctuated upward. The supply decreased, and the demand in the inland increased. The inventory in the port increased. The overall supply - demand contradiction was not prominent, and it is expected to oscillate. [21] - **PP**: The spot market of PP was sorted out narrowly. The cost - profit improved, the supply increased, and the demand was in the off - season. The price of the 09 contract may have limited fluctuations, and the 01 contract is short - biased. [21] - **LLDPE**: The price of LLDPE increased. The supply pressure remained, and the demand showed signs of improvement. The 09 contract is expected to oscillate weakly, and the 01 contract is short - biased in the short term. [22] Agricultural Products - **US Soybeans**: The 8 - month USDA soybean supply - demand adjustment was unexpectedly bullish. The expected harvest area of US soybeans decreased, the yield per acre increased, the export volume decreased, and the ending inventory decreased. The global ending inventory also decreased. [23] - **Soybean and Rapeseed Meal**: The cost of imported soybeans was expected to be stable, and the worry about supply contraction in the fourth quarter was relieved. The import of Canadian rapeseed may be blocked, and the domestic soybean meal substitution consumption is expected to increase. The price of domestic soybean and rapeseed meal is expected to rise further in the short term. [24] - **Soybean and Rapeseed Oil**: The inventory of rapeseed oil in the port was high, and the supply contraction was expected. The cost of soybean oil was stable, and the supply - demand situation improved in the fourth quarter. The palm oil price was supported by factors such as inventory and import demand. The overall valuation of oils and fats was slightly high, and attention should be paid to the supplementary increase of soybean oil. [24] - **Corn**: The supply of corn in Anhui and Xinjiang is expected to be sufficient in late August. The spot price is stable in August, and the basis is good, which has a certain stabilizing effect on the futures. [25][26] - **Pigs**: After consecutive price drops, farmers were reluctant to sell at low prices. The slaughter volume may decrease, and the supply pressure may be relieved after the Beginning of Autumn. The pig price may stabilize. [26]