Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve has initiated a rate cut cycle, reducing the federal funds rate target range by 25 basis points to 4.00%-4.25%, which may influence the People's Bank of China (PBOC) to consider similar actions in the context of China's economic conditions and expectations for lower interest rates [1][2]. Group 1: Economic Context - China's total social financing reached 433.66 trillion yuan, increasing the demand for a rate cut among economic entities and individuals [1]. - The PBOC has maintained the Loan Prime Rate (LPR) stable at 3.00% for one year and 3.50% for five years, with no adjustments for four consecutive months since May [1][2]. Group 2: Banking Sector Challenges - The net interest margin (NIM) of the banking sector has been under pressure, dropping to 0.947% in Q1 2025, the lowest in history, while the non-performing loan ratio exceeded 1% [2]. - The ability of banks to cover risk costs has diminished, with the NIM's coverage of non-performing loans falling from 120.2% in 2021 to 94.7% in Q1 2025 [2]. Group 3: Monetary Policy Constraints - The PBOC's decision to hold rates steady is influenced by the dual pressures of declining asset yields and intensified competition on the liability side, leading to a significant reduction in risk appetite within the financial system [3]. - Recent market interest rate trends and fiscal policy execution have created technical constraints on the PBOC's ability to lower rates, with long-term rates rising and indicating tighter liquidity expectations [4]. Group 4: Capital Flows and Exchange Rate Pressures - The inverted yield curve between Chinese and U.S. bonds has raised concerns about capital outflows, with estimates suggesting a net outflow of $100-120 billion in the first half of 2025 [5]. - The PBOC faces pressure to maintain exchange rate stability, as further rate cuts could exacerbate capital outflow risks and weaken the yuan [5][6]. Group 5: Future Policy Considerations - The PBOC is likely to consider a rate cut in late October, potentially aligning with the outcomes of the upcoming 20th Central Committee meeting, which may signal new economic policy directions [7]. - The need to achieve the annual economic growth target of around 5% and to stimulate domestic demand and stabilize the real estate market will add pressure for future monetary easing [6][7].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report The report analyzes the market conditions of various financial and commodity futures, including financial derivatives (financial futures, precious metals), shipping indices, and multiple commodity futures (non - ferrous metals, black metals, agricultural products, energy chemicals, etc.). It provides insights into market trends, influencing factors, and offers corresponding operation suggestions based on the analysis of each sector. Summary by Directory Financial Derivatives Financial Futures - **Stock Index Futures**: The macro sentiment improved, and stock indices rose across the board. A - shares opened higher and increased in volume. The four major stock index futures rose with the index, and the basis premium narrowed. The market was boosted by domestic economic data and Sino - US trade talks. It is recommended to try light - selling put options at support levels or construct bullish call spreads [2][3][4]. - **Treasury Futures**: The expectation of loose monetary policy strengthened, and the futures were expected to rise. Although the futures closed down, the speech at the Financial Street Forum released a signal of loose money. It is expected that the futures will open higher, and it is recommended to go long on dips and pay attention to the cash - and - carry arbitrage strategy [5][6][7]. Precious Metals - **Gold and Silver**: The risk - aversion sentiment subsided, and the market awaited the Fed's decision. The prices of gold and silver fell. In the short term, the market may be volatile, but in the long term, precious metals are expected to have a bull market. It is recommended to buy gold at low prices below $4000 [8][9]. Shipping Index - **Container Shipping Index (European Line)**: The futures market was volatile and declined, mainly affected by the reduction of quotations by MSC. However, the SCFIS European line index continued to rise, so a cautious bullish attitude is maintained. It is recommended to go long on the December contract on dips [12][13]. Commodity Futures Non - Ferrous Metals - **Copper**: Sino - US reached a preliminary consensus, and copper prices reached a new high. The macro environment and supply - demand fundamentals supported the price increase. It is recommended to focus on the support at around 86,000 yuan [13][14][17]. - **Alumina**: The spot trading activity increased, but the short - term oversupply situation was difficult to change. The supply was abundant, while the demand was weak. It is expected that the price will be under pressure, and the main contract will fluctuate between 2,750 - 2,950 yuan [17][18][19]. - **Aluminum**: The price was strong, and the spot discount widened. The macro environment was mixed, and the fundamentals were in a tight balance. It is expected that the price will remain in a strong and volatile range of 20,800 - 21,400 yuan [20][21]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: The price followed aluminum and was volatile and strong. The cost support was obvious, and the supply - demand was in a tight balance. It is recommended that the main contract operate in the range of 20,300 - 20,900 yuan [22][23]. - **Zinc**: The price rose slightly due to the squeeze on LME zinc and macro - level benefits. The supply was loose but the subsequent increase might be limited, and the demand was stable. It is expected to be in a range of 21,800 - 22,800 yuan [24][25][27]. - **Tin**: Supported by strong fundamentals, the price was strong. The supply was tight, and the demand was weak. It is recommended to wait and see, and the price is expected to be in a wide - range fluctuation [27][29][30]. - **Nickel**: The price was volatile, and the fundamentals were weak during the policy window period. The production was high, the demand was average, and the inventory was increasing. It is expected to fluctuate in the range of 120,000 - 128,000 yuan [30][31][32]. - **Stainless Steel**: The price was mainly volatile, and the fundamentals were weak. The raw material cost support was weakening, the supply was increasing, and the demand was not significantly boosted. It is expected to operate in the range of 12,500 - 13,000 yuan [34][35][36]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The price was strong, and the strong demand was gradually realized. The supply - demand gap was expanding in the peak season. It is expected to run strongly, and the main contract is recommended to operate in the range of 80,000 - 84,000 yuan [37][38][41]. Black Metals - **Steel**: The apparent demand for steel recovered, and the price rose with coking coal. The cost was supported, the supply was affected by environmental protection, the demand was expected to be supported by policies, and the inventory decreased. It is recommended to hold long positions and pay attention to the previous high pressure [42][43][44]. - **Iron Ore**: The price rebounded. The supply and demand situation was complex, with the decline in arrivals and the increase in inventory. It is recommended to go long on the 2601 contract on dips and engage in the 1 - 5 positive spread arbitrage [45][46]. - **Coking Coal**: The price of coking coal was strong, and the downstream replenishment demand recovered. The supply decreased, and the demand had replenishment needs. It is recommended to go long on the 2601 contract on the short - term and engage in the long - coking - coal and short - coke arbitrage [47][48][49]. - **Coke**: The second - round price increase was proposed. The cost was supported, the supply decreased, the demand was weak, and the inventory was moderately reduced. It is recommended to go long on the 2601 contract on dips and engage in the long - coking - coal and short - coke arbitrage [50][51][52]. Agricultural Products - **Meal Products**: Sino - US relations improved, and near - month soybeans had cost support. The price of domestic soybean meal decreased slightly, and the cost of imported soybeans was supported. It is expected that the domestic soybean meal will be on a strong trend [53][54][55]. - **Pigs**: The secondary fattening boosted the price of pigs. The spot price rose, and the market demand improved. However, there will be an increase in the number of pigs to be slaughtered in November and December. It is recommended to exit the arbitrage position and re - enter after the spot price stabilizes [56][57]. - **Corn**: The supply pressure remained, and the price was weak and volatile. The supply was abundant, the demand was mainly for rigid needs, and the price was affected by the selling rhythm of farmers and policy support [58][59].

Core Insights - The U.S. stock market has shown an upward trend, driven by a slight easing in inflation concerns and strong earnings from major companies [3][5][11] Market Drivers - Inflation has slightly slowed, with the U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) year-over-year at 3.0%, below the expected 3.1%, raising hopes that the Federal Reserve may pause its rate hikes [3][11] - Strong earnings from several large-cap stocks have further supported market optimism [3] - WTI crude oil prices remain stable above $61 per barrel, maintaining a positive sentiment in the energy sector without reigniting inflation fears [3][11] Volatility and Yield - The VIX index has decreased by 5.38%, indicating a reduction in risk aversion among investors [4][15] - The 10-year Treasury yield is stable at 4.043%, reflecting a balance between stock and bond liquidity [6] Top Stock Movers - Ford has seen a significant increase of 11.92% due to strong electric vehicle sales and optimistic guidance [8] - Western Union's stock rose by 10.07% driven by robust remittance volumes [9] - Coinbase experienced a 9.57% increase attributed to rising cryptocurrency inflows [10] Commodity Insights - WTI crude oil is priced at $61.50 per barrel, stabilizing after a recent surge driven by sanctions [13] - Gold is trading at $4,137.80 per ounce, supported by weak inflation data and stable dollar conditions [13] Other Key Areas - The Federal Reserve is expected to clarify its interest rate path following recent CPI data, with several officials scheduled to speak this week [16] - Earnings reports from major tech companies may test market sentiment resilience [16] - Month-end liquidity flows could cause short-term distortions in the market [16]

Group 1 - The Japanese yen has depreciated against the US dollar for seven consecutive days, reaching a two-week low, with the latest USD/JPY rate at 153.0100, up 0.10% [1] - Japan's service industry inflation rose again in September, with the Producer Price Index accelerating from 2.7% in August to 3.0%, reinforcing expectations for a potential interest rate hike by the Bank of Japan (BoJ) [1] - The new Japanese Prime Minister, Fumio Kishida, is seen as a successor to former Prime Minister Shinzo Abe's economic policies, raising concerns about Japan's fiscal health and limiting aggressive bullish bets on the yen [1] Group 2 - Investors are cautious ahead of key meetings from the Federal Reserve (Fed) and BoJ, with short-term focus on resistance at 153.25 and support at 152.65 [2] - From a technical perspective, a sustained buy above the 153.25-153.30 range could trigger further bullish momentum for USD/JPY, potentially targeting levels up to 155.00 [3] - Immediate support is noted at the 152.65 level, with a potential drop below this level leading to further declines towards 152.00 and possibly 151.10-151.00 [3]

Gold’s record-breaking run took a breather this week, snapping an eight-week winning streak as traders took profits ahead of the Federal Reserve’s October policy decision. The retreat has eased safe-haven demand and, for the first time in weeks, tilted some attention back toward risk assets including bitcoin (BTC). Spot gold fell more than 6% from its all-time high above $4,380/oz touched on Monday, settling near $4,120 by the weekend. The pullback was driven by profit-taking, heavy exchange-traded fund ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The upcoming China-US trade negotiations from October 24 - 27 have boosted market optimism. However, the new US sanctions on a Russian oil company have led to a sharp rise in oil prices, increasing inflation expectations, and causing the US dollar index and US Treasury yields to rebound. The domestic economy is growing faster, and the impending trade negotiations have lifted domestic market sentiment. The Fourth Plenary Session of the CPC Central Committee emphasized supply security, with manufacturing and technological self - reliance taking the lead, which is expected to enhance domestic risk appetite. The short - term macro - upward drive has strengthened, and attention should be paid to the progress of China - US trade negotiations and the implementation of domestic incremental policies [2]. - For assets, the stock index is expected to fluctuate in the short term, with a cautious long - position approach. Treasury bonds are also expected to fluctuate, and it is advisable to observe cautiously. In the commodity sector, black metals are expected to rebound with short - term fluctuations, and a cautious long - position is recommended; non - ferrous metals are expected to fluctuate, and a cautious long - position is also suggested; energy and chemicals are expected to rebound with short - term fluctuations, and a cautious long - position is appropriate; precious metals are experiencing a short - term correction at high levels, and it is advisable to observe cautiously [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Macro - finance - **Macro - situation**: Overseas, the upcoming China - US trade negotiations have boosted global risk appetite, but US sanctions on a Russian oil company have increased inflation expectations. Domestically, the economy is growing faster, and the trade negotiations are expected to lift the domestic market. Policy - wise, the Fourth Plenary Session of the CPC Central Committee's stance is favorable for domestic risk appetite. The short - term macro - upward drive has strengthened, and attention should be paid to trade negotiation progress and domestic policy implementation [2]. - **Asset suggestions**: Stock index: short - term fluctuation, cautious long - position; Treasury bonds: short - term fluctuation, cautious observation; commodities - black metals: short - term rebound with fluctuation, cautious long - position; non - ferrous metals: short - term fluctuation, cautious long - position; energy and chemicals: short - term rebound with fluctuation, cautious long - position; precious metals: short - term high - level correction, cautious observation [2]. 3.2 Stock Index - The domestic stock market rose slightly driven by sectors such as coal, energy metals, and film and television theaters. The improving domestic economy and upcoming trade negotiations have boosted market sentiment. Policy support from the Fourth Plenary Session of the CPC Central Committee has enhanced risk appetite. The short - term macro - upward drive has strengthened, and it is advisable to take a cautious long - position in the short term [3]. 3.3 Precious Metals - The precious metals market rose on Thursday night. Geopolitical risks and anticipation of US inflation data drove the increase. Spot gold rose 0.76% to $4125 per ounce. In the short term, precious metals are expected to rebound with fluctuations, and the long - term upward trend remains unchanged. Short - term investors should reduce long - positions and observe, while long - term investors should buy on dips [3]. 3.4 Black Metals - **Steel**: On Thursday, the steel futures and spot markets rebounded to varying degrees, with low trading volumes. The upcoming China - US trade negotiations have maintained strong macro expectations. The real - world demand for steel has improved marginally, with a 27.41 - million - ton decrease in inventory and a 17.32 - million - ton increase in apparent consumption this week. Supply has increased slightly but is expected to decline due to compressed steel mill profits. The steel market has no clear trend, with limited upward and downward space in the short term [4]. - **Iron Ore**: On Thursday, iron ore futures and spot prices continued to rebound. Steel mill profits are compressed, leading to a three - week decline in pig iron production, and further decline is expected. Steel mills are mainly making just - in - time purchases. Global iron ore shipments increased by 126 million tons this week, while arrivals decreased by 526.4 million tons. The price difference between Carajas fines (Carajás) and PB fines has narrowed. Iron ore prices are expected to fluctuate within a range [6]. - **Silicon Manganese/Silicon Ferro - alloy**: On Thursday, the spot prices of silicon ferro - alloy and silicon manganese were stable, while the futures prices rebounded slightly. The production of five major steel products increased slightly, and the demand for ferro - alloys is currently stable. The开工 rate of silicon manganese enterprises increased, and the daily output rose. The prices of silicon ferro - alloy and silicon manganese are expected to continue to fluctuate within a range [7]. 3.5 Chemicals - **Soda Ash**: On Thursday, the main soda ash contract fluctuated within a range. Supply is in a capacity - expansion phase, with plans for new capacity in the fourth quarter, resulting in high supply and inventory. Although there are anti - involution policies, the industry lacks clear policy implementation. In the long term, supply - side contradictions will suppress prices, and a bearish outlook is maintained [8]. - **Glass**: On Thursday, the main glass contract fluctuated within a range. Glass production increased slightly, and the number of operating production lines remained stable. As the "Golden September and Silver October" season ends, downstream procurement has slowed down. With anti - involution policies providing some support, but limited demand growth, short - term range - bound trading is recommended [8]. 3.6 Non - ferrous Metals and New Energy - **Copper**: Overnight, LME copper reached its highest level since October 9. High US copper inventories may limit future imports. The suspension of Indonesia's second - largest copper mine has tightened the global copper supply, but it is a temporary situation, and next year is expected to be a year of increased copper supply. China's refined copper inventory reduction has been less than expected. Copper prices are expected to remain high and fluctuate [9]. - **Aluminum**: On Thursday, SHFE aluminum rose significantly due to a positive macro environment and a general increase in commodity prices. An overseas aluminum smelter's accident has a limited impact on production. China's aluminum fundamentals are weak, with slow inventory reduction. However, market expectations are positive, and short - selling should be cautious [10]. - **Tin**: On the supply side, Indonesia's actions have tightened the global tin supply in the short term, and the mining approval cycle adjustment has added uncertainty. The smelting start - up rate has recovered. On the demand side, the start - up rate of tin solder is low, and demand in traditional and emerging industries is weak. High tin prices have suppressed consumption, but inventory has decreased due to some downstream replenishment. Tin prices are expected to remain high and fluctuate [11]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: On Thursday, the main lithium carbonate contract rose 4.17%. The market is experiencing both increased supply and demand, with strong seasonal demand and continuous inventory reduction. The market is strengthening with fluctuations, and attention should be paid to the upper pressure zone [12]. - **Industrial Silicon**: On Thursday, the main industrial silicon contract rose 2.72%. Production reached a new high, but there has been no inventory accumulation during the wet season. The market is expected to fluctuate within a range, and attention should be paid to the cash - flow cost support of large enterprises [12]. - **Polysilicon**: On Thursday, the main polysilicon contract rose 1.07%. The market is facing high supply and low demand. Expectations of policies such as state purchases are awaited, and attention should be paid to spot price support [13][14]. 3.7 Agricultural Products - **US Soybeans**: The CBOT soybeans rose overnight. Brazil's soybean sowing is progressing smoothly, and Argentina's weather conditions are favorable. The market is expected to remain stable with narrow fluctuations, and attention should be paid to China - US soybean trade developments [15]. - **Soybean and Rapeseed Meal**: The oil mill operating rate is high, and there is a widespread phenomenon of hastening the delivery of soybean meal. Oil mills are facing losses, increasing their willingness to support prices. There is a potential supply gap in the domestic market before the arrival of South American new soybeans next year. After a sharp decline, soybean meal is expected to stabilize with fluctuations. Rapeseed meal is in a state of balanced supply and demand, and its price is mainly influenced by soybean meal [15]. - **Soybean and Rapeseed Oil**: The short - term prices of soybean and rapeseed oil may be dragged down by palm oil. Soybean oil is in the peak season, but trading volume has not changed significantly. Palm oil is weak due to increased production in Malaysia. The price difference between soybean oil and palm oil is expected to continue to adjust. Rapeseed oil is supported by inventory reduction before new supplies arrive [16]. - **Palm Oil**: Malaysia's palm oil production has increased in October, and China's palm oil inventory has increased due to concentrated arrivals. MPOC expects palm oil prices to remain stable above 4400 ringgit per ton for the rest of 2025 [16]. - **Corn**: The price of corn in the Northeast region is stable. The China - US trade negotiations have an impact on the market, and traders' willingness to build inventories is relatively low. The price is approaching the cost of production, and farmers may be more reluctant to sell as the weather cools. The buying sentiment in the futures market has increased [17]. - **Hogs**: The price of hogs in the north has risen, increasing the cost of secondary fattening and reducing the enthusiasm of secondary fatteners. The breeding industry is facing losses, and the supply peak has not yet arrived. The price is expected to remain weak before the winter solstice consumption peak. The LH2601 futures contract is expected to fluctuate weakly [17].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that gold prices are experiencing a downward trend due to technical selling pressure and optimistic expectations regarding the US-China trade negotiations and the potential end of the US government shutdown [1][3] - The market is expected to remain weak until the government shutdown is resolved, with a focus on trade conditions and interest rate expectations [3] - Historical context suggests that optimistic sentiments regarding trade are often temporary, and the end of the government shutdown may lead to concerns about economic data deterioration and increased expectations for interest rate cuts, which could ultimately support gold prices [3] Group 2 - The daily chart shows a significant drop in gold prices, falling below the 5-10 day moving averages, indicating strengthened bearish momentum [3] - Despite the current downward trend, there are indications of potential support at the Bollinger Band middle line and the 30-day moving average, suggesting a possible opportunity for bullish entry near these support levels [3] - The market is expected to experience a period of consolidation and adjustment, with a bullish outlook remaining intact, particularly if prices dip below the 4000 threshold [3]

热门中概股涨跌不一，纳斯达克中国金龙指数下跌0.97%，好未来涨逾6%，哔哩哔哩涨逾5%。 当地时间10月21日，美股市场三大指数涨跌不一，道琼斯工业指数上涨0.47%，创历史新高，纳斯达克指数小幅下跌，标普500指数接近收平。大型科技 股涨跌不一，亚马逊涨逾2%，英伟达跌近1%。 大宗商品方面，现货黄金价格跌逾5%，盘中一度跌破4100美元/盎司，现货白银大跌7.11%，国际原油价格上涨。 美股三大指数涨跌不一 当地时间10月21日，美股三大指数涨跌不一，截至收盘，道琼斯工业指数上涨0.47%，创历史新高，纳斯达克指数下跌0.16%，标普500指数上涨0.22点。 大型科技股涨跌不一，Wind美国科技七巨头指数下跌0.21%，亚马逊上涨2.56%，英伟达下跌0.81%。 银行股普遍下跌，摩根大通下跌1.74%，高盛集团下跌0.54%，花旗集团下跌1.06%。 黄金股全线大跌，盎格鲁黄金下跌11.38%，金罗斯黄金下跌11.05%，哈莫尼黄金下跌11.04%。 独立金属交易商Tai Wong表示："过去一周黄金波动性上升显示谨慎情绪增多，部分投资者短期获利了结。" Kitco Metals高级分析师Jim W ...

Macroeconomic and Financial Analysis - Market concerns about trade tensions have eased, leading to an overall increase in global risk appetite. Domestically, economic growth has accelerated, and the softening of the US President's trade stance, along with the introduction of multiple industry stability - growth plans, has boosted domestic risk appetite. The short - term upward macro - drive has strengthened, and attention should be paid to the progress of Sino - US trade negotiations and the implementation of domestic incremental policies [2]. - For assets: The stock index is expected to fluctuate in the short term, and it is advisable to be cautiously bullish. Treasury bonds are expected to fluctuate in the short term, and it is advisable to wait and see. In the commodity sector, the black metal market is expected to fluctuate in the short term, and it is advisable to wait and see; the non - ferrous metal market is expected to fluctuate in the short term, and it is advisable to be cautiously bullish; the energy and chemical market is expected to fluctuate in the short term, and it is advisable to wait and see; precious metals are expected to fluctuate strongly at a high level in the short term, and it is advisable to be bullish [2]. Stock Index - Driven by sectors such as coal and gas, airport shipping, and consumer electronics, the domestic stock market has risen. The acceleration of domestic economic growth, the softening of the US President's trade stance, and the introduction of multiple industry stability - growth plans have boosted domestic risk appetite. The short - term upward macro - drive has strengthened, and attention should be paid to the progress of Sino - US trade negotiations and the implementation of domestic incremental policies. It is advisable to be cautiously bullish in the short term [3]. Precious Metals - The precious metals market declined on Monday. The main contract of Shanghai Gold closed at 970.32 yuan/gram, down 1.63%; the main contract of Shanghai Silver closed at 11742 yuan/kilogram, down 3.99%. Spot gold broke through the record high of last Friday, driven by the expectation of further US interest rate cuts and continuous hedging demand. It is expected to fluctuate strongly at a high level in the short term, and the medium - to - long - term upward trend remains unchanged. It is advisable for short - term bulls to continue holding or reducing positions on rallies, and to buy on dips in the medium - to - long - term [3]. Black Metals Steel - On Monday, the domestic steel market continued to be weak, and market trading volume remained low. The overall economic downward pressure is still large, and market risk - aversion sentiment has increased. The real demand for steel is still weak, but it improved slightly last week. The inventory of five major steel products decreased by 18.46 tons week - on - week, and apparent consumption increased by 139 tons. Supply is likely to decline further as steel mill profits narrow. There is no trending market in the steel market, with upward movement restricted by the supply - demand pattern and downward movement supported by costs. In the short term, the upward and downward space is limited [4]. Iron Ore - On Monday, the spot and futures prices of iron ore both weakened. The molten iron output has been declining for three consecutive weeks but remains at a high level of 240 tons. The logic of compressed steel mill profits continues, and molten iron output is expected to decline further. Steel mill raw material replenishment has temporarily ended. Global iron ore shipments increased by 126 tons this week, while arrivals decreased by 526.4 tons week - on - week. Port inventory increased by 253.77 tons last week. It is advisable to take a bearish view on iron ore prices in the later stage [5]. Silicon Manganese/Silicon Iron - On Monday, the spot and futures prices of silicon manganese and silicon iron rebounded slightly. The output of five major steel products has declined for two consecutive weeks, reducing the demand for ferroalloys. The price of silicon manganese 6517 in the northern market is 5600 - 5650 yuan/ton, and in the southern market is 5650 - 5700 yuan/ton. Manganese ore prices continue to be weak. The national capacity utilization rate of silicon manganese increased slightly, and daily output increased. The price of 72 - grade silicon iron in the main production area is 5100 - 5200 yuan/ton, and 75 - grade is 5800 - 6100 yuan/ton. The price of 75B silicon iron tendered by Hebei Steel in October decreased compared with the previous round. The silicon iron and silicon manganese futures prices are expected to continue to fluctuate within a range [6]. Soda Ash - On Monday, the main contract of soda ash was weak. Supply is in the capacity - release period, with plans for capacity release in the fourth quarter, maintaining a loose supply pattern. Although the anti - involution policy is clear, there is no clear industry document yet, and the price is dragged down by supply - side contradictions in the medium - to - long - term. It is advisable to take a bearish view in the medium - to - long - term [7]. Glass - On Monday, the main contract of glass fluctuated weakly. Glass production increased slightly, and the number of production lines remained stable. As the "Golden September and Silver October" period ends, downstream procurement has slowed down. Although there is some policy support, overall demand is difficult to increase significantly. It is advisable to conduct short - term range operations [7]. Non - Ferrous Metals and New Energy Copper - The US dollar declined last week due to dovish remarks from Powell, increased expectations of Fed rate cuts, and the alleviation of fiscal risk concerns in Japan and France. The suspension of Indonesia's second - largest copper mine has exacerbated the global copper shortage, supporting futures prices. However, the suspension is temporary, and production will resume in the middle of next year. Next year is a year of high copper supply, with an expected output growth rate of 5% (optimistic estimate) or 3% (neutral estimate), and the growth rate will fall below 2% after 2027. There is also a risk of the Panama copper mine restarting. Domestic refined copper de - stocking is less than expected, and social inventory is at a relatively high level. Domestic electrolytic copper production remains high, and demand is facing challenges. US copper inventory is high, restricting future import demand. Copper prices are expected to remain high and fluctuate [8]. Aluminum - On Monday, Shanghai aluminum fluctuated narrowly. The outer market is stronger than the inner market, resulting in a low internal - external price difference, which supports the inner market. Domestic aluminum fundamentals are not good, with slow de - stocking of social inventory and high aluminum rod inventory. London aluminum inventory has decreased recently, and overseas demand is not good. If institutions continue to withdraw aluminum from LME warehouses, it will support aluminum prices. Aluminum prices are expected to fluctuate within a range in the short term [9]. Tin - On the supply side, Indonesia has transferred six previously seized tin smelters to a state - owned enterprise, which plans to increase refined tin output. However, the crackdown on illegal tin mining and the adjustment of the mining approval cycle have exacerbated the global tin shortage in the short term. After the maintenance of large - scale smelters in Yunnan ended, the smelting start - up rate returned to over 50%. On the demand side, the start - up rate of tin solder remains low, and the improvement in downstream and terminal orders is limited. Traditional industries such as consumer electronics and home appliances have weak demand, and photovoltaic demand has declined. Tin prices are at a historical high, which suppresses physical demand. Weekly inventory decreased by 769 tons to 7017 tons. Tin prices are expected to remain high and fluctuate [10]. Lithium Carbonate - On Monday, the main contract of lithium carbonate rose 0.05%. The current supply and demand of lithium carbonate are both increasing, with strong demand in the peak season and continuous de - stocking of social inventory. The fundamentals are improving marginally, and the downward space is limited. The market is expected to fluctuate strongly, and attention should be paid to the upper pressure range [11]. Industrial Silicon - On Monday, the main contract of industrial silicon rose 0.88%. Weekly production reached a new high, but there was no inventory accumulation during the wet season. Attention should be paid to the resumption of production in the north. The 2511 contract faces the pressure of digesting warehouse receipts. The market is expected to fluctuate within a range, and attention should be paid to the cash - flow cost support of large manufacturers [11]. Polysilicon - On Monday, the main contract of polysilicon fell 3.66%. The number of warehouse receipts is increasing, and there will be concentrated cancellations in November, bringing selling pressure. The current situation of high supply and low demand continues. Attention should be paid to the implementation of storage purchase news and the support of spot prices [12][13]. Energy and Chemicals Crude Oil - Against the background of the easing of Sino - US tensions, oil prices declined slightly. The long - expected supply surplus is gradually emerging, and the tanker carrying capacity has reached a recent high. Oil prices will continue to test the lower support in the near future [14]. Asphalt - As oil prices continue to test the lower support, asphalt also has the risk of breaking through the support level. The basis remains low, and the actual shipping volume is low. The pressure of factory inventory accumulation continues, and social inventory is being depleted in the East China region. Profits have recovered slightly, and production has increased significantly, leading to an increase in supply pressure. In the later stage, oil prices will be affected by OPEC+ production increases, and asphalt may face challenges due to increased inventory pressure. Attention should be paid to the support of crude oil costs [14]. PX - Due to the continuous decline of crude oil prices and weak polyester demand, PX prices have followed the downward trend. Although the high start - up rate of PTA provides some demand support, PX is expected to continue to fluctuate weakly in October due to the overall decline of the polyester sector [14]. PTA - Driven by the decline of crude oil prices, the overall energy and chemical sector has declined. Downstream start - up rates are low, orders are scarce, and terminal start - up rates are below the historical average. PTA processing fees have declined, and port and factory inventories are accumulating. The basis has decreased, and short - term trading should focus on short - selling on rallies [15]. Ethylene Glycol - After breaking through the previous low, the port inventory of ethylene glycol has rebounded. With the expectation of new production capacity coming on - stream, ethylene glycol prices will remain low. Downstream start - up rates are weak, and both overseas and domestic demand are sluggish. In October, inventory will continue to accumulate, and prices will remain low. If oil prices continue to decline, there is still a risk of further decline [15]. Short - Fiber - Short - fiber has adjusted following the polyester sector and is expected to continue to fluctuate weakly in the near future. Terminal orders have increased seasonally but with limited amplitude. The increase in short - fiber start - up rates has led to limited inventory accumulation. Further inventory depletion depends on the continuous improvement of terminal orders. In the medium - term, short - selling on rallies may be considered [15]. Methanol - This week, methanol supply has decreased in the short term, and olefin demand remains high, leading to a slight reduction in inventory and an improvement in the short - term supply - demand structure. However, traditional downstream demand is weak, and there are plans for many plants to restart, increasing supply pressure. High inventory and external factors such as tariff upgrades restrict price increases. Methanol prices are expected to fluctuate in the short term [16]. PP - The supply growth rate of the PP market continues to be higher than demand, and inventory levels are high, putting pressure on the market. The decline of crude oil prices has weakened cost support, expanding the downward price space. Attention should be paid to the recovery of downstream demand [17]. LLDPE - This week, the supply of polyethylene has increased, and inventory has accumulated significantly, suppressing prices. Demand is divided, with the start - up rate and orders of agricultural film improving, but the overall downstream start - up rate is still slow to increase. The decline of crude oil prices has weakened cost support, and the polyethylene market will be under pressure in the short term [17]. Urea - The daily output of urea is between 18.1 - 19.1 tons. Industrial procurement is stable, and agricultural demand is recovering after rainfall. Exports are shrinking after the window period closes. The market is cautious, and purchases are mainly made at low prices. The short - term market may be stable after a period of stalemate, but there is still a risk of decline in the later stage [17]. Agricultural Products US Soybeans - The release of USDA reports has been postponed, and concerns about Sino - US soybean trade continue, making the export prospects of US soybeans unclear. However, domestic crushing consumption provides some support. The new - season harvest situation of US soybeans is unknown. The sowing of Brazilian soybeans is progressing smoothly, and the weather conditions in the core production areas of Argentina are good. The CBOT soybean market is expected to remain stable with narrow fluctuations. Attention should be paid to the dynamics of Sino - US soybean trade [18]. Soybean and Rapeseed Meal - Domestic downstream phased replenishment has increased, and soybean meal inventory has decreased significantly. As of October 17, 2025, soybean inventory in major oil mills increased slightly week - on - week and significantly year - on - year, while soybean meal inventory decreased week - on - week and increased year - on - year. Apparent consumption of soybean meal increased significantly. Currently, oil mill profits are generally in the red, increasing their willingness to support spot prices. Although the expected arrival of soybeans in the fourth quarter is sufficient, there may be a supply gap before the new - season South American soybeans are available in the first quarter of next year. After the short - term over - decline, soybean meal prices are expected to stabilize and fluctuate. Rapeseed meal supply is tight due to low factory start - up rates, and the market is in a state of weak supply and demand, with inventory decreasing slightly [19]. Soybean and Rapeseed Oil - Soybean oil has entered the peak season, but trading volume has not changed significantly. The inverted price difference between domestic and foreign soybean and palm oil provides some consumption expectations. The basis of first - grade soybean oil in Zhangjiagang has increased. For rapeseed oil, before the supply of Australian rapeseed and direct imports of Russian oil increases, the de - stocking market supports the stability of the spot basis. As of October 17, 2025, soybean oil commercial inventory decreased week - on - week and increased year - on - year, while rapeseed oil inventory decreased [20]. Palm Oil - A large amount of palm oil arrived in China last week, and the arrival is concentrated recently, leading to an increase in commercial inventory. Malaysian palm oil exports have increased at a slower rate. As of October 17, 2025, domestic palm oil commercial inventory increased week - on - week and year - on - year [20][21]. Corn - The bumper harvest of corn in the Northeast and North China has come onto the market. The harvest weather is not conducive to storage, and farmers are eager to sell due to profitable prices, causing a significant seasonal impact on the market. Currently, corn trading at the grassroots level and ports is light, and the willingness of channels and downstream feed mills to build long - term inventories is still weak. However, the current price is close to the planting cost, and high - quality corn is in short supply. As the temperature drops, farmers may be more reluctant to sell, which will slow down the price decline [21]. Pigs - After the festival, the process of reducing production and inventory has accelerated, and pig prices have fallen to a new low this year, resulting in widespread losses in breeding profits. Recently, the price difference between fat and lean pigs and some regional restocking have supported the market, increasing the reluctance of small - scale farmers to sell and pressuring the market. Large - scale farms plan to increase the pace of slaughter, but supply is expected to decrease in late October, which will stabilize the extreme downward risk of pig prices. The far - month futures are slightly at a premium. Unless there is a significant increase in demand beyond the seasonal norm, it is difficult for pig prices to recover significantly. Attention should be paid to the impact of extreme weather on pig farming in North China this year [22].

Core Viewpoint - After a nine-week rally, gold prices experienced a significant drop, with international market prices falling by $152 per ounce, leading to a decline in domestic gold prices as well [1][2] Market Dynamics - The recent decline in gold prices is attributed to easing trade tensions and a recovery in global risk appetite, prompting investors to withdraw from safe-haven assets like gold and silver [2] - The adjustment in margin requirements for silver and gold futures by exchanges has forced some long positions to reduce their holdings, contributing to the price drop [2][3] Investor Sentiment - There is a divide in investor sentiment, with some taking profits after the recent surge while others view the price drop as an opportunity to buy [5][6] - Long-term investors continue to accumulate gold, as evidenced by increased holdings in ETFs, despite short-term volatility [8] Supply and Demand Factors - Recent data shows a tightening of gold and silver inventories, with significant outflows from COMEX silver and increases in SPDR gold ETF holdings [8] - The World Gold Council noted that central banks have shown a tendency to buy on dips, indicating ongoing support for gold prices despite short-term fluctuations [8] Risk Management - Exchanges and banks have issued warnings regarding market volatility, advising investors to manage their positions carefully amid the current uncertainty [9][10]