Group 1: Market Overview - The market liquidity remains ample, with the central bank's net injection of 162.2 billion on November 21 and 255.7 billion on November 24 [1] - The overnight funding rates showed slight fluctuations, with DR001 decreasing by 1 basis point to 1.31% and DR007 increasing by 1 basis point to 1.45% on November 27 [1] Group 2: Economic Indicators - Japan's Prime Minister emphasized the importance of economic stimulus for fiscal sustainability, with the current year's government bond issuance expected to be lower than last year [2] - In the U.S., September durable goods orders increased by 0.5%, surpassing expectations, while the Federal Reserve's Beige Book indicated stable economic activity across most districts, with some areas reporting slight declines [2] Group 3: Domestic Debt Market - In October, various institutions reversed their bond-holding behaviors, with a notable increase in interbank certificates of deposit, while banks reduced their bond holdings [3] - The demand for bonds from commercial banks is expected to remain high in the coming months due to the widening loan-to-deposit spread [3] - The National Development Bank ETF (159650) is highlighted as a suitable investment option due to its high credit rating, large scale, and good liquidity, making it a reasonable tool for short-duration allocations [3]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the concept of risk appetite among investors, emphasizing its impact on asset allocation, investment strategies, and market price fluctuations in a complex economic environment. It highlights the importance of measuring risk appetite to make informed investment decisions, especially in light of uncertainties in economic growth and market volatility [2]. Group 1: Risk Appetite Measurement Methods - **Volatility Indicators**: Volatility is a direct reflection of market risk, with the VIX index serving as a contrarian indicator of market fear. High volatility indicates low risk appetite, while low volatility suggests a higher willingness to take risks. The implied volatility of the CSI 1000 index is currently low, indicating that investors do not foresee significant systemic risks in the near future [2]. - **Liquidity of Funds**: Fund liquidity is another key indicator of market risk appetite. A shift of funds from high-risk to low-risk assets, or vice versa, reflects changes in risk appetite. The financing balance in the A-share market, which represents investors' willingness to use leverage for stock purchases, has recently reached historical highs, although its growth rate has begun to slow [4][5]. - **Policy Expectations**: Market expectations regarding future government support measures, including fiscal and monetary policies, significantly influence risk appetite. For instance, after a significant market drop due to tariff escalations, government interventions helped stabilize the market, leading to a recovery [6]. Group 2: Market Trends and Implications - The article notes that by analyzing the driving factors of risk appetite, investors can assess whether asset prices are in a bullish or bearish environment. If asset prices show strong annualized returns but experience short-term volatility, and the factors driving the market are improving, it is advisable for investors to start positioning themselves [6]. - Conversely, if the risk appetite factors remain unchanged, it is recommended for investors to maintain their current asset allocations or strategies [6].

美联储理事Lisa Cook关于私人信贷领域"潜在的资产估值脆弱性"的警告，像一颗投入平静湖面的石子，激起层层涟漪。隔夜信贷市场迅速恶化，投资级债券 和高收益债券的利差急剧扩大。这个规模达1.7万亿美元的市场一旦出现问题，其与金融体系的复杂关联可能引发连锁反应，这让习惯了廉价资金的华尔街 如坐针毡。 当英伟达的财报烟花变成市场丧钟，当比特币跌破9万美元的心理防线，华尔街正在经历一场由九个致命音符组成的黑色交响乐。高盛最新报告揭示了这场 史诗级暴跌背后的复杂机理，每一个因素都像精确制导的导弹，击穿了投资者的心理防线。 百度图片 科技信仰的崩塌：英伟达成为压垮骆驼的最后一根稻草 英伟达财报本该是市场的强心针，却意外成为压垮风险偏好的最后一根稻草。这家AI芯片巨头交出了超预期的成绩单，股价却高开低走最终收跌3%。高盛 顶级交易员John Flood的评论一针见血："真正的好消息没有得到回报，通常是一个坏兆头"。市场开始质疑，当最耀眼的明星都失去光芒，还有什么能支撑 科技股的天价估值？ image 百度图片 信贷市场的定时炸弹：美联储官员的警告成真 流动性荒漠：市场失去缓冲垫 高盛数据显示，标普500指数顶级买卖盘的 ...

今日Ultima Markets为您带来了 2025年11月20日的黄金深入分析 ·黄金在周四早盘重新尝试突破4100美元，期待美国就业数据的推动。 ·美元接近十天高位，风险偏好情绪抵消鹰派美联储会议纪要的影响。 ·黄金周三收盘于4075美元阻力位之上；相对强弱指数保持看涨。接下来会如何？ 黄金在周四早盘再次尝试突破4100美元，因美元（USD）在风险偏好的市场环境中暂停上涨，同时等待当天稍晚公布的至关重要的九月份非农就业数据 （NFP）报告。 然而，在芯片制造商英伟达（Nvidia）在市场收盘后发布的乐观业绩提供了极大缓解，并引发了全面的风险偏好反弹后，局势似乎再次转向黄金买家有 利。 市场的乐观情绪延续到亚洲交易时段，限制了美元的持续上涨，同时恢复了黄金向4100美元门槛的回升动能。 黄金的下一步上涨取决于美国就业数据的发布，这可能会改变市场对美联储下个月是否降息的预期。 预计非农就业数据将显示，美国经济在九月份新增5万个就业岗位，而八月份的新增就业岗位为2.2万个。失业率预计在同一时期保持在4.3%。与此同时， 预计九月份的平均时薪年增幅为3.7%，与八月份的增幅相同。 任何与预期的显著偏差都可能影响美 ...

Group 1 - The recent volatility in the gold market is primarily driven by a combination of monetary policy expectations and market sentiment [1][4] - The World Gold Council's CEO for China highlighted three main challenges in gold investment: understanding the market, timing the investment, and holding onto the asset [2] - The decline in gold prices is seen as both a risk release and an opportunity, emphasizing that gold serves as a safety net rather than a quick profit generator [2] Group 2 - The Federal Reserve's shift towards a more hawkish stance has led to a stronger dollar, putting downward pressure on gold prices as it is a non-yielding asset [4] - A recovery in global risk appetite, due to easing geopolitical tensions, has resulted in funds moving away from gold to riskier assets like stocks and cryptocurrencies [4] - Technical selling pressure has emerged as many investors sought to lock in profits after a period of rising gold prices, contributing to the recent price drop [4] Group 3 - Since November, international gold prices have dropped over 5%, while domestic gold jewelry prices have decreased by approximately 20-30 yuan per gram, yet remain about 15% higher than at the beginning of the year [4] - Investors face difficulties in understanding the multitude of factors influencing gold prices, leading to impulsive buying and selling behaviors [4] - The average gold price increase over the past three years has been over 20%, but more than 60% of investors exited early, missing out on further gains [4] Group 4 - Different strategies are recommended for various types of investors: immediate buyers should consider current prices for planned purchases, long-term holders should adopt a dollar-cost averaging approach, and short-term speculators should be cautious due to market volatility [2][4] - It is crucial for all investors to choose reputable channels for purchasing gold and to be aware of buyback policies to ensure liquidity [4]

Core Viewpoint - The recent government shutdown in the U.S. was expected to boost the cryptocurrency market, but Bitcoin and the overall crypto market have failed to recover, with Bitcoin dropping below $100,000 and nearing $90,000, erasing all gains made in 2025 [2] Market Performance - Bitcoin reached a historical high of $126,000 on October 6, 2025, but has since fallen over 28%, currently trading around $90,000 [2] - The recent decline is characterized by a "death cross" pattern, with Bitcoin breaking below the critical 50-week moving average, historically indicating the end of bull markets [2] Macro Environment - Investor expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut in December have diminished, with only a 48.6% probability remaining for a 25 basis point cut [3] - The macroeconomic environment has worsened, leading to significant sell-offs and concentrated liquidations of leveraged positions, exacerbating the downward trend [3] Market Sentiment - The current market conditions are attributed to a combination of short-term liquidity issues, persistent selling pressure, and weak investor sentiment rather than a single triggering factor [4] - Despite easing tensions in U.S.-China relations, Bitcoin struggles to find support, with liquidity remaining thin since the market crash on October 10 [4] Institutional Involvement - Unlike previous bear markets, Bitcoin has seen increased institutional participation, with major financial institutions accepting Bitcoin as collateral, indicating a maturation of the asset class [5] - Recent data shows that most investors selling Bitcoin are still in profit, suggesting a lack of panic selling or large-scale margin calls [5] Investment Strategies - Analysts recommend that retail investors avoid trying to time the market and instead adopt a dollar-cost averaging approach for long-term investments [6] - Long-term investors should focus on macro signals rather than solely technical trends, as Bitcoin's potential for recovery is tied to global liquidity conditions [6]

Core Viewpoint - Bitcoin experienced a weak rebound after hitting a six-and-a-half-month low, reflecting ongoing weak risk appetite in the market [1] Group 1: Market Sentiment - Concerns over valuations and a cooling expectation for a Federal Reserve rate cut next month led to a sell-off in technology stocks, negatively impacting risk appetite [1] - Investors are currently focused on the delayed September U.S. non-farm payroll report set to be released on Thursday [1] Group 2: Bitcoin Performance - According to data from the London Stock Exchange Group, Bitcoin rose by 2.4% to $95,717 after previously touching a low of $92,988 [1]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found Group 2: Core Views of the Report - Fed officials' hawkish remarks cooled market risk appetite, causing significant drops in gold and silver prices. Gold prices retreated, erasing last week's gains, and the premium of Shanghai gold converged to -2 yuan/gram. Silver premium widened to 340 yuan/gram, and the sentiment for Shanghai silver remained strong. With the U.S. government reopening, waiting for data verification, gold prices will continue to fluctuate at high levels, and silver prices will oscillate [4][5]. Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Previous Day's Review - **Gold**: Fed officials' hawkish remarks cooled risk appetite, leading to a significant drop in gold prices. U.S. stock indexes showed mixed performance, European stock indexes declined across the board, U.S. bond yields rose, the dollar index increased, and the offshore RMB depreciated slightly against the dollar. COMEX gold futures fell 2.62% to $4084.4 per ounce. The basis was -2.4, indicating a spot discount to futures. Gold futures warehouse receipts increased by 810 kilograms to 90426 kilograms. The 20 - day moving average was downward, and the K - line was above the 20 - day moving average. The main net position was long, but the long position decreased [4]. - **Silver**: Similar to gold, Fed officials' hawkish remarks led to a significant drop in silver prices. COMEX silver futures fell 5.21% to $50.4 per ounce. The basis was +9, indicating a spot premium to futures. Shanghai silver futures warehouse receipts decreased by 7120 kilograms to 576894 kilograms. The 20 - day moving average was upward, and the K - line was above the 20 - day moving average. The main net position was long, and the long position increased [5][6]. 2. Daily Tips - **Gold**: The support for gold prices has weakened significantly as the concerns about the Fed's interest rate cut and China - U.S. tariff escalation have improved. However, due to the global turmoil after Trump's inauguration, the inflation expectation has shifted to the economic recession expectation, making it difficult for gold prices to decline [10]. - **Silver**: Silver prices still mainly follow gold prices. The concerns about tariffs have a stronger impact on silver prices, and there is a risk of an enlarged increase. The factors affecting silver prices are similar to those of gold, with both positive and negative factors coexisting [14]. 3. Today's Focus - 07:50: Japan's preliminary quarterly GDP growth rate in Q3; Time TBD: The sixth "Diversity, Equality, and Inclusion in the Fields of Economy, Finance, and Central Banking" conference jointly hosted by the European Central Bank, Bank of France, Bank of Spain, Bank of Italy, Bank of Canada, and Bank of England; Time TBD: The 2025 China International Photovoltaic and Energy Storage Industry Conference from November 17 - 20; 16:15: Speech by the vice - president of the European Central Bank, de Guindos; 21:30: U.S. November New York Fed Manufacturing Index; 22:00: Welcome speech by FOMC permanent voter and New York Fed President Williams at the 2025 Governance and Culture Reform Conference; 22:30: Speech by Fed Vice - Chairman Jefferson; 22:45: Speech by the chief economist of the European Central Bank, Lane; 23:00: U.S. August construction spending; Next day 02:00: Fireside chat hosted by Minneapolis Fed President Kashkari; Next day 04:35: Speech by Fed Governor Waller [16]. 4. Fundamental Data - **Gold**: The basis was -2.4, indicating a spot discount to futures. Gold futures warehouse receipts increased by 810 kilograms to 90426 kilograms [4]. - **Silver**: The basis was +9, indicating a spot premium to futures. Shanghai silver futures warehouse receipts decreased by 7120 kilograms to 576894 kilograms [6]. 5. Position Data - **Gold**: The main net position was long, but the long position decreased. The net long position of the top 20 holders of Shanghai gold increased by 3308 to 105420. SPDR Gold ETF holdings fluctuated and decreased [4][32]. - **Silver**: The main net position was long, and the long position increased. The net long position of the top 20 holders of Shanghai silver increased by 8879 to 112852. Silver ETF holdings increased slightly and were still higher than the same period in the past two years. Shanghai silver warehouse receipts continued to decrease and were at the lowest level in the past six years, while COMEX silver warehouse receipts decreased slightly [6][34][43].

Core Insights - The end of the longest government shutdown in U.S. history has shifted market sentiment, reducing risk aversion and warming up risk assets, but volatility may still be on the horizon [1] Economic Data Release - Key economic data that was delayed due to the shutdown will be released next week, including Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP), CPI and PPI inflation data, retail sales, new housing starts and building permits, and consumer confidence index [2][6] Market Dynamics - The market has been operating on expectations during the shutdown, with the Federal Reserve unable to access the latest data. The release of this data may lead to a market re-evaluation [3] - The Federal Reserve has signaled a hawkish stance, reducing the market's expectation for a rate cut in December from approximately 72% to 50% [3] - The end of the shutdown has led to a short-term increase in risk appetite, with U.S. stock futures rebounding and the dollar stabilizing, although this rebound may not indicate a trend reversal [3] Potential Market Movements - The bond market may undergo re-pricing due to delayed fiscal spending, which could increase debt risks and put upward pressure on yields. Rising yields may first impact high-leverage assets like gold and tech stocks [3] - U.S. stocks may experience a "divergent market" where sector rotation occurs rather than a broad market rally, with tech stocks sensitive to yield changes and financial stocks reacting significantly to the interest rate cycle [4] Gold Market Outlook - Gold is at a critical juncture, with its price currently in a weak but unbroken range. The upcoming week will be pivotal for gold's direction, influenced by delayed data, the Federal Reserve's stance, bond yield trends, and the re-pricing of risk assets [5][8] - If economic data is weak, rate cut expectations may rise, potentially boosting gold prices and tech stocks. Conversely, strong data may lead to a higher likelihood of the Fed maintaining its stance, resulting in rising bond yields and pressure on both U.S. stocks and gold [7]

Market Overview - The cryptocurrency market is experiencing a significant downturn, with Bitcoin falling below the $94,000 mark, currently priced at $95,423.1 per coin, and reaching a low of $93,955 within 24 hours [1] - Ethereum is reported at $3,168 per coin, with a 24-hour decline of 2.11%, while SOL is at $142, down 2.27%. Other cryptocurrencies like Dogecoin and BNB are also witnessing declines [3] Liquidation Data - Over the past 24 hours, more than 225,000 traders have been liquidated, with a total liquidation amount of $1.066 billion. Long positions accounted for $890 million, while short positions totaled $170 million [5] - Detailed liquidation statistics show that in the last 24 hours, long liquidations reached $890 million and short liquidations were $170 million [6] Market Sentiment and Predictions - Market analysts suggest that funds may be retreating from the cryptocurrency market, indicating a potential period of vulnerability. Major investment funds and corporate treasury departments have withdrawn from Bitcoin, which has been a key support for this year's rebound [7] - The cryptocurrency fear and greed index has dropped to 10, the lowest level since February 27, indicating a state of "extreme fear" in the market [7] - Predictions from Polymarket indicate a 70% probability of Bitcoin falling below $90,000 by year-end, with a 26% chance of dropping below $80,000, and a 22% chance of exceeding $120,000 [7] Market Dynamics - The performance of the Bitcoin market is heavily influenced by the profitability of new entrants, who represent new capital and liquidity. If these investors realize profits, market confidence can be sustained, leading to a dynamic upward trend. However, panic selling may occur if short-term holders face losses of 20% to 40% [8] - Current market conditions are not yet indicative of a typical bear market signal, and if new entrants can achieve some profits, market support may gradually form, suggesting that the current pullback could be a mid-cycle correction rather than the onset of a bear market [8]