Core Viewpoint - The U.S. is facing a prolonged period of high inflation influenced by trade policies and geopolitical factors, which may gradually affect consumer expectations. The Federal Reserve should remain patient and avoid hasty interest rate cuts [1][2]. Group 1: Inflation Outlook - The price adjustments and the economy's adaptation to U.S. trade policies and new policy changes are expected to be a prolonged process, potentially lasting a year or more [1]. - There is a risk of a slow but sustained upward trend in inflation, which could complicate the Federal Reserve's efforts to control inflation [1]. Group 2: Labor Market and Monetary Policy - Despite a resilient labor market, with June job additions exceeding expectations and a slight decrease in the unemployment rate to 4.1%, there are no signs of weakness that would prompt the Federal Reserve to cut rates prematurely [1]. - Given the high uncertainty in employment, economic growth, and inflation trends, it is not the right time for significant adjustments to monetary policy [2].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that there is a risk that high inflation may begin to affect consumer sentiment [1] Group 2 - The statement highlights the potential psychological impact of sustained high inflation on consumers [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Bank of England's monetary policy committee member, Green, emphasizes that maintaining price stability is the top priority following a period of high inflation [1] Group 1 - The recent high inflation period has led to a renewed focus on price stability as a critical objective for the economy [1]

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve has maintained interest rates and indicated a slower pace for future rate cuts, with Powell stating that high inflation persists [2] - The spot gold market reacted to the news, experiencing a slight decline, reaching a low of $3362.58 per ounce and closing at $3369.15 per ounce [2] - Future market trends should be monitored closely, particularly regarding trade tariffs, geopolitical developments, and the Federal Reserve's monetary policy direction along with U.S. Treasury yields [2] Group 2 - In the spot gold market, the hourly chart shows a consolidation phase, with a short-term 15-minute chart also indicating a range-bound movement between $3362.00 and $3380.00, suggesting a strategy of buying low and selling high within this range [3] - If the market breaks below $3362.00, a short position may be considered, targeting $3352.00 to $3342.00 per ounce [3] - Conversely, if the market breaks above $3380.00, a long position may be initiated, with targets set at $3390.00 to $3400.00, and a stop loss of $5.00 per ounce [3] Group 3 - The spot silver market is currently in a high-level consolidation phase, with the hourly chart indicating a range between $36.500 and $36.980, suggesting a buy low and sell high strategy [6] - A break below the support level of $36.500 per ounce may prompt the establishment of a short position, targeting $36.150 to $35.800 per ounce [6] - If the market successfully breaks above $36.980 per ounce, a long position may be pursued, with potential targets of $37.400 to $37.900 per ounce, and a stop loss of $0.200 per ounce [6]

Core Viewpoint - The process of combating high inflation by the Federal Reserve is not yet complete [1] Group 1 - Former Federal Reserve Vice Chairman Clarida emphasizes that the Federal Reserve's efforts to address high inflation are ongoing and have not reached a conclusion [1]

Core Viewpoint - Canadian Royal Bank strategists highlight a potential 20% decline in the US stock market under high inflation scenarios, particularly if oil prices rise significantly [1] Group 1: Market Conditions - The report outlines three potential scenarios for a US stock market pullback, emphasizing the vulnerability of the market due to recent rebounds and high valuations [1] - The strategists indicate that the broader and longer the Middle East conflict lasts, the greater the negative impact on the US stock market [1] Group 2: Potential Outcomes - In the worst-case scenario, if the conflict drives up energy prices, the S&P 500 index could revert to its April lows [1] - In a less severe scenario, the index may decline by approximately 13% [1] Group 3: Inflation and Earnings Growth - Analysis suggests that if inflation rises "severely" to 4%, earnings growth from 2024 onwards could be zero, with the Federal Reserve only cutting rates twice [1] - If the 10-year US Treasury yield remains at current levels, the benchmark index could fall to 4800 points by year-end, representing a nearly 20% decrease from current levels [1]

加皇资本市场策略师在列出了三种可能回调情景的报告中称，如果油价上涨导致通胀飙升，那么 标普 500指数面临下跌20%的风险。Lori Calvasina等策略师表示，鉴于近期大幅反弹、估值似乎过高，美国 股市比较脆弱。他们表示，中东冲突范围越大、持续时间越长，对美国股市的负面影响就越大。在最糟 糕情景中，如果袭击事件推升能源价格，标普500指数料将回到4月低点。他们表示，在更好一些的情景 中，该指数可能下跌约13%。"这场冲突可能会引发人们对消费者状况、整体经济以及 美联储路径的更 多担忧，这种叙事转变似乎可能给股价带来问题，"这些策略师在报告中写道。 ...

Group 1 - The central bank of Kazakhstan indicates that due to high inflation, it will need to maintain a moderately tight monetary policy for a longer period than previously expected [1] - The possibility of raising the benchmark interest rate in necessary circumstances is not ruled out by the central bank [1]

金十数据6月4日讯，美国5月服务业出现近一年来首次萎缩，企业投入价格上涨，表明美国经济仍有可 能经历一段非常缓慢的增长和高通胀时期。美国供应管理协会（ISM）周三表示，美国非制造业PMI降 至49.9，跌破50大关，也是自2024年6月以来的最低水平。新订单指数从4月份的52.3降至46.4，可能是 由于与关税相关的领先优势带来的提振减弱。服务业客户认为，库存相较需求过高，这对短期内的经济 活动来说不是好兆头。供应商的交货表现继续恶化，工厂交货时间延长，表明供应链紧张，可能会因供 应短缺而推高通胀。企业也在寻求将关税转嫁给消费者。服务投入支付价格指数从4月份的65.1飙升至 68.7，为2022年11月以来的最高水平，进一步强化了这一点。多数经济学家预计，关税对通胀和就业的 冲击可能会在夏季所谓的硬经济数据中显现出来。 ISM调查：美国5月服务业意外收缩 通胀升温 ...

Group 1 - The latest data indicates a concerning trend in the U.S. labor market, with continued unemployment claims rising to 1.92 million, the highest level since November 2021, exceeding economists' expectations of 1.89 million, suggesting potential pressure on the labor market [1] - The increase in unemployment claims has not yet shown a significant impact in the non-farm payroll report, with the unemployment rate in April at 4.2%, the highest since July of the previous year, but this increase has not raised widespread market concerns [1][3] - Analysts believe the current labor market trend reflects a "low hiring, low layoffs" state, with initial unemployment claims slightly up by 14,000 to 240,000, indicating that the overall economy is still absorbing labor despite a slowdown [3] Group 2 - Experts anticipate that the labor market may face more noticeable pressure in the coming months, particularly with the release of non-farm employment data and expectations of economic growth slowing in the second half of the year [5] - The dynamics of the labor market are becoming crucial for observing future economic trends, influenced by high inflation, rising interest rates, and global trade uncertainties [3]