Group 1 - The CPI data has fallen short of expectations, indicating potential economic concerns [1] - There is speculation that gold bears may be approaching a significant support level at 3320 [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates a decline in silver prices, with the latest closing price at $37.70 per ounce, down 1.13% from the previous day [1] - As of July 15, the silver ETF holdings decreased to 14,856.02 tons, a reduction of 110.22 tons from the previous day, reflecting a bearish sentiment in the market [2] - The recent CPI data showed a month-on-month increase of 0.3% in June, which is the largest rise since January, leading to slight adjustments in market expectations regarding potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [2][3] Group 2 - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell's cautious stance on inflation suggests that the Fed may remain careful regarding interest rate cuts, despite the moderate inflation data [3] - The upcoming PPI data is anticipated to provide further market guidance, with potential implications for interest rate expectations and gold prices [3] - The silver market experienced volatility, opening at $38.16, reaching a high of $38.39, and closing at $37.70, indicating a significant downward movement after an initial rise [4]

Core Insights - The Federal Reserve's Logan indicated that the June CPI data suggests an increase in the PCE inflation rate [1] Group 1 - The June CPI data is a key indicator for predicting future inflation trends [1]

Core Viewpoint - The US dollar experienced fluctuations against the Japanese yen, initially rising but later declining before rebounding again after the release of the US CPI data [1] Currency Movements - The US dollar rose by 0.77% against the Japanese yen, reaching 148.86 yen before the CPI data release [1] - Following the CPI data release, the dollar fell below 147.80 yen but subsequently increased, hitting a high of 149.02 yen [1] - The euro appreciated by 0.23% against the yen, while the British pound increased by 0.44% against the yen [1]

Core Insights - The U.S. Treasury Deputy Secretary Faulkender expressed skepticism regarding the Federal Reserve's stance based on the CPI data, indicating that the index is falling below the Fed's target [1] Group 1 - The CPI index is showing a downward trend, which raises questions about the appropriateness of the Federal Reserve's current position [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the recent CPI data raises questions about the correctness of the Federal Reserve's stance [1]

Group 1 - Nasdaq futures increased by 0.72% and S&P 500 futures rose by 0.46% [1] - U.S. Treasury yields declined, with the 2-year Treasury yield down over 1 basis point to 3.898% and the 10-year Treasury yield down over 2 basis points to 4.954% [1] - The U.S. dollar index fell slightly, decreasing by 0.13% during the day [1]

Core Viewpoint - The CPI report is perceived as somewhat subjective, showing slightly weaker data than some forecasts, but the impact of tariffs is expected to become more pronounced in July and August [1] Group 1 - The CPI data is slightly below expectations from various forecasting agencies [1] - The performance of commodity prices in June was relatively strong [1] - The report does not alter the fundamental views of those who believe the worst of tariff-driven price increases is yet to come [1] Group 2 - For those who think inflation transmission will be slower and less impactful due to companies striving to maintain market share in a weakening demand environment, the report also does not change their perspective [1]

CPI公布后，美联储7月维持利率不变的概率升至97.4% 金十数据7月15日讯，据CME"美联储观察"：CPI数据公布后，美联储7月维持利率不变的概率为97.4%，降息25个基点的概率为 2.6%。美联储9月维持利率不变的概率为38.6%，累计降息25个基点的概率为59.9%，累计降息50个基点的概率为1.6%。 | 预测利率 | 2025.07.31 | 2025.09.18 | 2025.10.30 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 3.50%-3.75% | | 0.0% | 0.9% | | 3.75%-4.00% | 0.0% | 1.6% | 34.0% | | 4.00%-4.25% | 2.6% | 59.9% | 48.0% | | 4.25%-4.50%(当前利率) | 97.4% | 38.6% | 17.1% | @ JIN10.COM 金十数据 | 一个交易工具 往后三次议息会议可能性预测 EXPECTATIONS OF NEXT THREE FOMC MEETINGS ...

Group 1 - The release of CPI data has led to a steepening of the yield curve for 2-year and 10-year U.S. Treasury bonds, with the latest spread reported at 50.5 basis points [1] - The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury bond has been affected by the CPI data [1]