Group 1: Monetary Indicators - In June, the new social financing scale reached 4.2 trillion yuan, an increase of 900 billion yuan year-on-year[1] - The year-on-year growth of M1 rose to 4.6% in June from 2.3% in May, while M2 increased to 8.3% from 7.9%[2] - The M2-M1 spread narrowed to 3.7%, down 1.9 percentage points from the previous month[2] Group 2: Government Financing and Debt - Government bonds accounted for 32.3% of social financing in June, down from 63.8% in the previous month[3] - Net financing of government bonds in June was 1.3548 trillion yuan, an increase of 507.2 billion yuan year-on-year[3] - By June, the total government bond issuance for the year reached 7.66 trillion yuan, representing 65% of the annual issuance plan[3] Group 3: Corporate and Household Loans - Corporate loans in June saw a seasonal increase of 1.77 trillion yuan, up 140 billion yuan year-on-year, with short-term loans rising by 1.16 trillion yuan[3] - Household loans increased by 3.353 trillion yuan for medium to long-term and 2.621 trillion yuan for short-term loans, reflecting a slight recovery in consumer confidence[3] - Overall, the performance of household credit remains moderate, indicating cautious economic expectations[3]

Group 1: Financial Data Overview - In June 2025, new social financing (社融) reached 4.20 trillion yuan, exceeding market expectations by 0.9 trillion yuan and higher than the average of 3.75 trillion yuan from 2019 to 2024[3] - The year-on-year growth rate of social financing stock was 8.9%, an increase of 0.2 percentage points from the previous month[3] - New RMB loans amounted to 2.24 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1.1 trillion yuan[4] Group 2: Loan Structure and Trends - In June, the new RMB loans accounted for 56% of the total social financing, indicating strong loan growth from financial institutions[11] - Short-term loans for enterprises saw a significant year-on-year increase of 4.9 trillion yuan, while corporate bill financing decreased by 3.716 trillion yuan[4] - M1 and M2 growth rates were 4.6% and 8.3%, respectively, with M1 rebounding by 2.3 percentage points from the previous month[4] Group 3: Economic Signals and Policy Implications - The government bond net financing in June was 1.3508 trillion yuan, contributing approximately 32% to the new social financing[9] - The People's Bank of China emphasized a "stable" monetary policy, maintaining ample liquidity and signaling no further expansion of bond investment regulation for small and medium banks[14] - The economic environment has improved since May, positively influencing corporate production and investment willingness, as indicated by a mild rebound in the manufacturing PMI index[13]

Economic Overview - The preliminary GDP for the first half of 2025 is 66,053.6 billion yuan, showing a year-on-year growth of 5.3% at constant prices [2] - The industrial added value for large-scale industries increased by 6.4% year-on-year in the first half, with a 6.8% growth in June [5] Investment and Consumption - National fixed asset investment (excluding rural households) reached 24,865.4 billion yuan in the first half, marking a year-on-year increase of 2.8% [8] - The total retail sales of consumer goods amounted to 24,545.8 billion yuan in the first half, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 5.0%, with a 4.8% increase in June [11] Price Indices - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) decreased by 0.1% year-on-year in the first half, with a slight increase of 0.1% in June [15] - The Producer Price Index (PPI) fell by 2.8% year-on-year in the first half, with a 3.6% decline in June [16] Financial Indicators - The total social financing scale increased by 22.83 trillion yuan in the first half, which is 4.74 trillion yuan more than the same period last year [19] - New RMB loans added up to 12.92 trillion yuan in the first half [20] - The broad money supply (M2) reached 330.29 trillion yuan at the end of June, showing a year-on-year growth of 8.3% [21] Trade Performance - The total import and export value of goods reached 21.79 trillion yuan in the first half, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 2.9% [25]

Report Industry Investment Rating The provided content does not mention the industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In June, the overall social financing and credit exceeded expectations. The year-on-year growth rate of social financing stock rebounded by 0.2 pct to 8.9%, and credit data improved significantly, becoming one of the main supporting items for social financing [1][6]. - The improvement in short-term loans for enterprises and residents reflects the marginal boost in corporate business activities and residents' spending willingness. However, the impact of seasonal factors needs attention. The positive trend of medium- and long-term loans for residents and enterprises requires attention to its sustainability [1][6]. - The improvement in June's credit data indicates that incremental policies are gradually taking effect, and the economic fundamentals show "resilience." However, structural pressures still exist and may require further policy support [1][6]. - In the bond market, the overall favorable environment for the bond market in the third quarter has not fundamentally changed. The current prominent stock-bond "seesaw" effect is more of a disturbing factor. Long-term interest rates are expected to fluctuate narrowly around 1.65%, and there is no need to overly worry about adjustment risks [1][6]. Summary by Related Catalogs 1.1. In terms of total volume, government bonds and credit form support - In June, the new social financing was 419.93 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 90.08 billion yuan. The year-on-year growth rate of social financing was 8.9%, up 0.2 pct from the previous month. The social financing growth rate (excluding government bonds) was 6.1%, up 0.078 pct from the previous month [7]. - Government bonds remained the core driving force for social financing and are expected to support the economic performance in the second quarter. Fiscal front-loading has been in place since the beginning of the year, and government bond issuance has increased significantly year-on-year. In the second quarter, the net financing of government bonds significantly exceeded the seasonal level [7]. - In June, the new RMB loans (social financing caliber) increased by 16.73 billion yuan year-on-year, exceeding expectations. The improvement in credit supply is due to the seasonal increase in banks' credit supply demand in the end-of-quarter month and the positive factors in economic operation with the continuous implementation of a package of stable growth policies [2][7]. 1.2. In terms of structure, short-term corporate loans performed brightly - In June, the new RMB loans were 224 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 11 billion yuan. Among them, short-term loans for residents increased by 1.5 billion yuan year-on-year, medium- and long-term loans for residents increased by 1.51 billion yuan year-on-year, short-term loans for enterprises increased by 49 billion yuan year-on-year, and medium- and long-term loans for enterprises increased by 4 billion yuan year-on-year [13]. - Residents' willingness to increase leverage improved moderately. The "618" promotion and summer travel plans in June may have led to the concentrated release of household consumption demand, and policies such as trade-in of consumer goods also provided support [13]. - Medium- and long-term loans for residents are a comprehensive reflection of the relief of early mortgage repayment pressure and the year-on-year decline in real estate transactions. The reduction of existing mortgage rates may reduce early mortgage repayment, but the reduction of deposit rates in May may increase the pressure [13]. - Short-term corporate loans continued to improve year-on-year, becoming the main supporting item for new credit. This may be due to the end-of-quarter impulse and the implementation of structural monetary policy tools in early May [14]. - The impact of replacement bond issuance on medium- and long-term corporate loans was marginally relieved. The low base in the same period last year and the improvement in corporate operations, as reflected in the PMI data, also contributed to the increase [14]. 1.3. Under the low-base effect, the year-on-year growth of M1 was high - In June, the year-on-year growth rate of M2 was 8.3%, up 0.4% from the previous month and 2.1% from the same period last year. The year-on-year growth rate of M1 was 4.6%, up 2.3% from the previous month and 6.3% from the same period last year [22]. - The increase in residents' deposits was 247 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 33 billion yuan. Non-financial corporate deposits increased by 177.73 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 77.73 billion yuan. Fiscal deposits decreased by 82 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 700 million yuan. Non-bank deposits decreased by 52 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 34 billion yuan [22]. - The year-on-year and month-on-month growth rates of M1 and M2 both improved, and the year-on-year growth of M1 was significant. This is mainly due to the low-base effect caused by the "manual interest compensation" rectification in April last year and the bond bull market, which led to a decline in M1 and M2 growth last year [22]. - The continuous fiscal efforts at the end of the quarter also supported the growth of M1 and M2. The net financing scale of government bonds in the second quarter this year was significantly higher than that in the same period last year, and fiscal expenditure was strong [23]. - The phased easing of external tariff games and the continuous strengthening of domestic stable growth policies boosted corporate business expectations and residents' consumption confidence, which may have promoted the activation of general deposits [23].

《中国经营报》记者注意到，上半年，企业短期贷款延续多增的亮点。从企业部门看，企（事）业单位 新增贷款11.57万亿元，同比多增5700亿元。短期、中长期贷款分别多增1.19万亿元、少增9100亿元，票 据融资同比多增2976亿元。 中国银行研究院研究员梁斯认为，企业短期贷款和票据融资多增，主要与外部环境复杂多变、企业预防 性需求上升有关。而中长期贷款少增与地方政府债务置换加速，平台公司集中偿还中长期贷款有关。 社融方面，上半年，政府债券净融资7.66万亿元，同比多增4.32万亿元；金融机构对实体经济发放的人 民币贷款增加12.74万亿元，同比多增2796亿元。 梁斯预计，2025年第三季度政府债券发行规模将继续保持在较高水平，这将对社融带来支撑。 中经记者 谭志娟 北京报道 7月14日，央行发布金融数据显示，上半年人民币贷款增加12.92万亿元；2025年上半年社会融资规模增 量累计为22.83万亿元，比上年同期多4.74万亿元；6月末M2同比增长8.3%，比上月末上升0.4个百分 点，为去年4月以来新高。 民生银行首席经济学家温彬认为，上半年信贷呈现"总量增长、结构优化"特征。具体来看，在积极的财 政政策提 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints - Although the US has restarted the tariff war, the market has become somewhat insensitive after previous fluctuations in the trade situation. With the release of semi - annual performance forecasts of listed companies, the market is optimistic about their first - half profits. The effects of loose monetary policies are evident, and the improvement in external demand has led to positive GDP expectations. The market anticipates positive second - quarter economic data, and the fundamental recovery supports the stock market. As the Politburo meeting at the end of July approaches, market bulls may pre - arrange, driving the stock market up. It is recommended to buy on dips with a light position [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Content a. Futures Contract Data - IF主力合约（2509）最新价3985.8，环比下降13.0；IF次主力合约（2507）最新价4009.0，环比下降11.6；IH主力合约（2509）最新价2747.4，环比下降12.8；IH次主力合约（2507）最新价2751.8，环比下降23.2；IC主力合约（2509）最新价5897.6，环比下降18.0；IC次主力合约（2507）最新价6008.4，环比下降19.0；IM主力合约（2509）最新价6302.2，环比下降13.0；IM次主力合约（2507）最新价6442.2，环比下降13.0 [2] - IC - IF当月合约价差1257.2，环比下降9.0；IF - IH当月合约价差1999.4，环比下降2.8；IC - IH当月合约价差3256.6，环比下降11.8；IM - IC当月合约价差433.8，环比下降5.0；IM - IH当月合约价差3690.4，环比下降7.8；IM - IF当月合约价差2433.2，环比下降2.0 [2] - IF下季 - 当月为 - 23.2，环比下降4.8；IF当季 - 当月为 - 53.8，环比下降1.4；IH下季 - 当月为 - 4.4，环比下降8.2；IH当季 - 当月为 - 1.8，环比上升0.2；IC下季 - 当月为 - 110.8，环比下降4.8；IC当季 - 当月为 - 233.8，环比下降7.0；IM下季 - 当月为 - 140.0，环比下降4.6；IM当季 - 当月为 - 321.4，环比下降4.6 [2] - IF前20名净持仓为 - 29,007.00，环比下降735.0；IH前20名净持仓环比上升2211.0；IC前20名净持仓为 - 11,851.00，环比上升885.0；IM前20名净持仓环比上升1903.0 [2] - IF主力合约基差环比上升2.9；IH主力合约基差环比上升1.0；IC主力合约基差环比下降6.2；IM主力合约基差环比上升1.2 [2] b. Market Sentiment Data - A股成交额（日）为14,809.22亿元，环比上升20.81；两融余额（前一交易日）为18,757.94亿元，环比下降2556.88；逆回购（到期量，操作量）为2455.04亿元，环比上升432.40；北向成交合计（前一交易日）为 - 1065.0亿元，环比上升2262.0；MLF（续作量，净投放）为 - 405.03亿元；主力资金（昨日，今日）为 - 119.66亿元 [2] - Shibor（日）为1.415%，环比上升0.082；上涨股票比例（日）为58.69%，环比上升4.03；IO平值看涨期权隐含波动率环比下降8.00；IO平值看涨期权收盘价（2507）为28.80，环比下降0.59；IO平值看跌期权隐含波动率环比下降1.20；IO平值看跌期权收盘价（2507）为18.40，环比下降0.59；成交量PCR环比上升0.01；沪深300指数20日波动率为8.69%，环比上升13.64；持仓量PCR为74.76%，环比下降0.36 [2] - 技术面：Wind市场强弱分析中，全部A股为5.90，环比上升0.50；资金面为6.00，环比下降0.60 [2] c. Industry News - On July 14, the General Administration of Customs released data showing that in June, China's exports (in RMB) increased by 7.2% year - on - year (previous value: 6.3%), imports increased by 2.3% (previous value: - 2.1%), and the trade surplus was 8259.7 billion yuan (previous value: 7435.6 billion yuan). In the first half of the year, exports increased by 7.2% year - on - year, imports decreased by 2.7%, and the trade surplus was 42125.1 billion yuan. In June, exports (in US dollars) increased by 5.8% year - on - year (previous value: 4.8%), imports increased by 1.1% (previous value: - 3.4%), and the trade surplus was 1147.7 billion US dollars (previous value: 1032.2 billion US dollars). In the first half of the year, exports increased by 5.9% year - on - year, imports decreased by 3.9%, and the trade surplus was 5859.6 billion US dollars [2] - On July 14, the central bank announced that in the first half of 2025, the cumulative increase in social financing scale was 22.83 trillion yuan, 4.74 trillion yuan more than the same period last year. At the end of June 2025, the stock of social financing scale was 430.22 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 8.9%. At the end of June, the balance of broad - money (M2) was 330.29 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 8.3%. The balance of narrow - money (M1) was 113.95 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 4.6%. The balance of currency in circulation (M0) was 13.18 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 12%. In the first half of the year, 363.3 billion yuan of cash was net - injected [2] - As of 21:00 on July 13, 510 A - share listed companies had released their semi - annual performance forecasts for 2025, of which 301 were positive, with a positive forecast ratio of about 59.02% [2] - According to data from the Shanghai and Shenzhen Stock Exchanges, foreign capital has increased its holdings of A - shares for two consecutive quarters. As of the end of the second quarter of this year, north - bound funds held 2907 stocks, with a total market value of about 2.29 trillion yuan. Compared with the end of 2024, the market value of north - bound funds' holdings increased by 87.1 billion yuan; compared with the first quarter of 2025, it increased by more than 50 billion yuan [2] d. Market Performance - A - share major indexes showed mixed trends. The Shanghai Composite Index was slightly stronger in a volatile manner, while the Shenzhen Component Index and the ChiNext Index were slightly weaker. At the close, the Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.27%, the Shenzhen Component Index fell 0.11%, and the ChiNext Index fell 0.45%. The trading volume of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets decreased significantly. Most industry sectors rose, with the machinery and equipment sector leading the gains and the real estate sector leading the losses [2] e. Upcoming Key Data - July 15, 10:00: China's June fixed - asset investment, industrial added value of large - scale industries, total retail sales of consumer goods, and unemployment rate; second - quarter GDP - July 15, 20:30: US June CPI and core CPI - July 16, 20:30: US June PPI and core PPI - July 17, 20:30: US June import price index, retail sales, and core retail sales [3]

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1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overseas macro - environment is better than the previous cycle. The contraction of the US manufacturing industry is offset by the growth of personal consumption, leading to a significant decline in inflation without a notable increase in unemployment. With the Fed's good expectation management, the current economic cycle has the conditions for a "soft landing", and the liquidity release caused by preventive interest rate cuts is beneficial to commodities. In Europe, the "free - market logic" is more clearly transmitted. When inflation falls to a controllable range, interest rate cuts will stimulate manufacturing expansion and increase in terminal consumption. The current high policy interest rate of the Eurozone central bank is a more favorable condition than in 2010 - 2015 [1][44]. - The domestic macro - environment is weaker than the previous cycle. The rapid decline of M1, the positive scissors - difference between M2 and the year - on - year growth of social financing stock, and the widening of the scissors - difference between M1 and M2 reflect the decline in social financing demand and the decrease in market risk preference. However, the appreciation of the RMB caused by overseas interest rate cuts is conducive to the implementation of domestic monetary policies. In the real estate industry, high household leverage and urbanization rates restrict the maneuvering space of the current real estate cycle. High inventory of commercial housing and insufficient potential purchasing power will lead to a deeper active de - stocking. In the manufacturing industry, changes in domestic consumption structure and the increase in potential external demand make the current manufacturing cycle more resilient. Although infrastructure funds are still increasing, they are mainly invested in new - quality productivity industries such as electricity, and the growth rate of traditional steel - consuming industries is gradually declining. China's steel exports have an obvious characteristic of trading price for volume. Although there are more trade barriers, cost advantages ensure that the export volume can still be maintained [2][44]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Overseas Macro - environment Comparison 3.1.1 US: Interest Rate Cuts Lead to Liquidity Release and Commodities Benefit - In the 2010 - 2015 cycle, the US market was relatively stable with a low federal funds target rate of 0.25% from December 2008 to December 2015. Unemployment rate declined year - by - year, CPI and core CPI fluctuated within a controllable range, PMI data showed manufacturing expansion, and personal consumption expenditure was stable. In the current cycle, the federal funds target rate is 4.50%, with strong potential for interest rate cuts to release liquidity. The continuous significant decline in CPI and core CPI and the stable labor market lay the foundation for preventive interest rate cuts and a soft landing of the economy. The expected interest rate cuts will release liquidity in the money market, which is beneficial to commodities [5]. 3.1.2 Europe: Potential for Liquidity Release - Europe's "free - market logic" is more clearly transmitted due to the unified management of the euro by the European Central Bank system and the large differences in economic volume and resilience among EU member states. Previous interest rate hikes suppressed terminal demand, causing CPI and manufacturing PMI to decline. When inflation falls to a controllable range, interest rate cuts will stimulate manufacturing expansion and terminal consumption. The current high policy interest rate of the Eurozone central bank is a more favorable condition than in 2010 - 2015 [11]. 3.2 Domestic Macro - and Meso - level Comparison 3.2.1 Fiscal Policy and Monetary Policy - M1 has contracted more severely in this cycle, indicating greater economic downward pressure. In terms of steel consumption potential, it may be weaker than the previous cycle as households are restricted by the real estate market and local governments are burdened with debt, while the central government still has room to increase leverage. The year - on - year growth of social financing stock has been lower than that of M2 since early 2022, and the widening scissors - difference between M1 and M2 shows a decrease in market risk preference. There is still room to reduce the RMB deposit reserve ratio and LPR, and the appreciation of the RMB after the Fed's interest rate cuts provides space for the implementation of domestic monetary policies [14][16][18]. 3.2.2 Real Estate Industry: Active De - stocking Continues and Downward Pressure is Greater than the Previous Cycle - The real estate industry is a pro - cyclical industry. There is a positive correlation between steel prices and real estate development investment, and M1 and commercial housing sales generally move in the same direction. In this cycle, the real estate industry has greater downward pressure. The real estate development investment and funds have been in negative growth since 2022, and the high household leverage and urbanization rates limit the maneuvering space. The inventory of commercial housing is increasing, and it is more difficult to reduce inventory through price increases. The active de - stocking behavior caused by weak supply and demand may lead to a decline in real estate - related commodity prices [20][22][24]. 3.2.3 Manufacturing Industry: Domestic and External Demands Show Resonance - The manufacturing industry is a pro - cyclical industry, and there is a positive correlation between steel prices and manufacturing investment. In the 2010 - 2015 cycle, manufacturing investment declined from 30% to 5%. In the current cycle, manufacturing investment has been stable at around 10%, supported by new energy vehicles, ships, containers, and policy incentives. The "two - new" support funds in 2025 are 300 billion yuan, twice that of 2024, which is conducive to the benign cycle of domestic demand. There is a positive correlation between China's export amount and the PMI of European and American manufacturing industries, indicating resonance between domestic and external demands. The US economy may achieve a soft landing, and there is a possibility of upward resonance of domestic and external demands, which will not drag down steel consumption [30][33]. 3.2.4 Infrastructure: New - quality Productivity Industries Gain Momentum while Traditional Steel - consuming Industries Slow Down - Infrastructure is a counter - cyclical adjustment tool, and there is an inverse correlation between infrastructure investment growth rate and steel prices. In the 2010 - 2016 period, local governments were the main entities for leveraging through urban investment bonds. After 2022, with the decline in land transfer revenue, the proportion of special bonds increased, and policy - based development tools and ultra - long - term treasury bonds can also supplement infrastructure funds. Although the total infrastructure funds are still increasing, the investment is mainly in new - quality productivity industries such as electricity, and the growth rate of traditional steel - consuming industries such as roads, railways, and public facilities is gradually declining [35][37][39]. 3.2.5 Export: Trading Price for Volume, Pattern Remains Unchanged - China's steel exports have an obvious characteristic of trading price for volume, with an inverse correlation between export quantity and price since 2007. When domestic demand is strong, exports are restricted; when domestic demand is weak, high production leads to an exploration of export paths. Since 2022, some overseas countries have imposed high tariffs or conducted anti - dumping investigations on Chinese steel products, increasing export costs and slightly reducing export volume. However, due to cost advantages, China's steel still has global appeal, and the high - volume export pattern is difficult to change. About 70% of steel exports go to Asia, and the trade pattern has been basically stable since 2010 [42][43].

Group 1: Investment Ratings - No report on the industry investment rating is provided in the content Group 2: Core Views - Forecasts for June 2025 include 2.1 trillion yuan in new loans, 3.8 trillion yuan in social financing, M2 reaching 329.2 trillion yuan with a YoY growth of 7.9%, M1 (new caliber) YoY growth of 2.5%, and a social financing growth rate of 8.8% [2] - New loans in June may be close to the same period last year. The growth of individual loans is expected to be 500 billion yuan, corporate credit 1.55 trillion yuan, and non - bank inter - bank loans 50 billion yuan. The growth of individual short - term loans is expected to be 150 billion yuan, and individual medium - and long - term loans 350 billion yuan. Corporate short - term loans are expected to increase by 500 billion yuan, corporate medium - and long - term loans by 950 billion yuan, and bill financing by 100 billion yuan [3] - The growth rate of the new - caliber M1 is expected to rebound in June, while the M2 growth rate remains stable. The new - caliber M1 growth rate at the end of June is expected to be 2.5%, and the old - caliber M1 growth rate +0.4%, both rebounding month - on - month. The M2 growth rate at the end of June is expected to be 7.9%, basically unchanged from the end of last month [3] - Social financing in June may increase year - on - year. The social financing increment in June is predicted to be 3.8 trillion yuan, with the increase mainly from government bonds and net corporate bond financing. The social financing growth rate at the end of June is expected to be 8.8%, up 0.1 percentage point month - on - month. For the whole year, new loans (social financing caliber) are expected to increase slightly year - on - year, government bond net financing to expand significantly year - on - year, and the social financing growth rate may rise first and then fall, with an end - of - year rate of about 8.3% [3] - Interest rate bonds are expected to fluctuate narrowly in the third quarter. There is a continued bullish view on long - duration urban investment bonds and capital bonds with a yield of over 2%. In 2026, the Fed is expected to cut interest rates significantly, presenting prominent opportunities for short - and medium - term US bonds [3] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Forecast of New Loans - Based on past credit release rules and industry observations, it is predicted that new loans in June 2025 will be 2.1 trillion yuan. The growth of individual loans is expected to be 500 billion yuan, corporate credit 1.55 trillion yuan, and non - bank inter - bank loans 50 billion yuan. Due to weak credit demand, new loans in July may be low [2][3] Forecast of M1 and M2 Growth Rates - Since January 2025, the central bank has adopted a new M1 caliber. It is expected that the new - caliber M1 growth rate at the end of June will be 2.5% and the old - caliber M1 growth rate +0.4%, both rebounding month - on - month. The M2 growth rate at the end of June is expected to be 7.9%, basically unchanged from the end of last month, indicating a slow improvement in economic activity [3] Forecast of Social Financing - The social financing increment in June 2025 is predicted to be 3.8 trillion yuan, an increase from 3.3 trillion yuan in June 2024. The increase mainly comes from government bonds and corporate bond net financing. The social financing growth rate at the end of June is expected to be 8.8%, up 0.1 percentage point month - on - month. For the whole year, social financing is expected to increase year - on - year, and the growth rate may rise first and then fall [3] Bond Market Outlook - In the third quarter, interest rate bonds are expected to fluctuate narrowly. There is a continued bullish view on long - duration urban investment bonds and capital bonds with a yield of over 2%, as well as urban investment dim - sum bonds and US dollar bonds. The perpetual bonds of Minsheng, Bohai, and Hengfeng Banks are strongly recommended, and opportunities in insurance sub - debt are worth attention. In 2026, the Fed is expected to cut interest rates significantly, presenting prominent opportunities for short - and medium - term US bonds [3]

丨证券研究报告丨 固定收益丨点评报告 [Table_Title] 社融总量稳定增长，政府债延续支撑 ——2025 年 5 月金融数据点评 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 2025 年 5 月存量社融同比 8.7%，增速环比基本持平，从增量结构上来看，政府债和企业直接 融资为主要贡献项；信贷增量偏弱，但结构上仍有亮点，企业短贷同比正增、票据冲量规模下 降。2025 年 5 月 M1、M2 同比增速分别为 2.3%、7.9%，增速环比提升 0.8 个百分点、微降 0.1 个百分点。存款结构方面，政府债净融资带来财政存款沉淀，企业存款在去年手工补息带 来的低基数下同比少减。信贷增量表现偏弱，但今年政府债为社融增速提供趋势性支撑，随着 市场对贸易摩擦的反应逐步钝化，资金面预计仍是政策真空期影响债市的重要因素。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] 赵增辉 马月 SAC：S0490524080003 SAC：S0490125010043 SFC：BVN394 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 1 [Table_Title 社融总量稳定增长，政府 ...