1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not provide an industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints - The global economy is entering the top - region due to the US's continuous wrong policies [2] - After the key nodes at the end of October (trade conflicts, tech giants' earnings reports, Fed decisions), if the Nasdaq continues to rise, the market will enter the strong upward phase of the last stage of the bull market, but also the most dangerous top moment is approaching [1] 3. Summary According to Related Information Global Economic News - Fed Chair Powell hinted at a possible rate cut in October and a potential halt to balance - sheet reduction in the coming months [1] - The US bank raised its price forecasts for gold to $5000 per ounce and silver to $65 per ounce in 2026 [1] - Google's parent company Alphabet will invest $15 billion in India over five years to build an AI data - center hub [1][2] - OpenAI plans to invest up to $25 billion in Argentina to build a data - center hub [1] - Goldman Sachs will limit employee growth and cut some positions by the end of this year and launched the "OneGS 3.0" strategy [1] Chinese Economic News - China's September exports were $328.5 billion, up 8.3% year - on - year, and imports rose 7.4% year - on - year, with the growth rates hitting multi - month highs [2] - The RMB central parity rate against the US dollar was reported at 7.0995, up 26 points, the first time since last November [1][2] - According to the HSBC emerging market survey, China is the preferred stock investment market, and 100 surveyed institutions manage $423 billion of emerging - market assets [2] Tech - related News - Huawei announced the evolution and goals of its Ascend chips, with computing power leading Nvidia by over a year [2] - Alibaba is actively promoting 380 billion yuan of AI infrastructure construction and plans to increase investment [2] - Broadcom released the Thor Ultra network chip, strengthening its position in AI data - center network communication and competing with Nvidia [1]

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve Governor Milan calls for a faster pace of interest rate cuts, suggesting that a reduction of no more than 50 basis points at a time is realistic, with two more cuts expected this year [12] - The U.S. Treasury Secretary plans to submit a list of three to four candidates for the Federal Reserve leadership to Trump after Thanksgiving [12] - The CPI in China decreased by 0.3% year-on-year in September, while the PPI fell by 2.3% year-on-year [12] Group 2 - The U.S. stock market showed mixed results, with the S&P 500 index rising by 0.4% and the Nasdaq increasing by 0.66%, while the Dow Jones experienced a slight decline [4] - In the Hong Kong market, the Hang Seng Index rose by 1.84%, with significant gains in gold stocks and new consumption stocks [5] - The A-share market saw the Shanghai Composite Index increase by 1.22%, with over 4,300 stocks rising, particularly in the robotics and automotive sectors [6] Group 3 - The international gold price reached a new high, closing at $4208.28 per ounce, up 1.6%, while silver also saw a strong rebound, closing at $52.99 per ounce, up 3.11% [7] - WTI crude oil closed at $58.26 per barrel, with a slight increase of 0.05%, while Brent crude oil rose by 0.26% to $62.23 per barrel [7]

美联储理事米兰表示，与同事政策观点的分歧更多在于降息的速度，而非最终降息目标。对通胀持更乐 观的看法，主要得益于对住房成本的预期。认为没有必要进行超过50个基点的降息。 ...

尽管美国政府关门影响了对经济的判断，美联储仍保留了本月降息的可能性。美联储主席鲍威尔最新发声中，表示了对美国当前就业形势进一步恶化的担 忧。他还透露，美联储可能会在未来几个月内停止缩减资产负债表行动。市场分析指出，这意味着美联储在10月的下次议息会议中降息是大概率事件。 就业下行风险上升 北京时间10月15日凌晨，在全美商业经济协会（NABE）年会上，鲍威尔表示，自上次会议决定降息25个基点以来，美国的就业和通胀前景并没有多大改 变。他重申，因为就业下行风险增加，美联储对就业和通胀目标所面临风险平衡的评估改变，因此9月决定降息。 为了应对双重目标的紧张关系，鲍威尔称"不存在毫无风险的政策路径"。对此，中国国际经济交流中心美欧研究部副部长张茉楠表示，"无风险路径"就是美 联储的"两难困境"。鲍威尔的言论表明，美国经济核心矛盾未获根本性缓解，就业与通胀前景的确没有根本性改变。 鲍威尔在讲稿中多次提到招聘速度缓慢，并强调，就业率可能进一步下降。目前职位空缺数进一步下降，很可能反映在失业率上。关于通胀方面，鲍威尔认 为，现有的数据和调查依然表明，"商品价格上涨主要反映了关税，而非更广泛的通胀压力"。 分析人士指出，鲍 ...

Gold Market - Federal Reserve Chairman Powell indicated that the U.S. labor market is weakening and signs of recession are emerging, with the asset balance sheet reduction process likely to end in October [1] - Following Powell's remarks, the probability of an interest rate cut in October rose from 92% to 97%, with market expectations largely priced in [1] - The implied volatility (fear index) approached 33, indicating significant market anxiety, but remains below the April level of 38; gold continues to be a favored safe-haven asset with potential for further price increases [1] - Technical analysis shows a bullish trend for gold, with support at $4150 and resistance at $4240 [1] Oil Market - The International Energy Agency (IEA) reported a potential surplus of up to 4 million barrels per day in the global oil market by 2026, a significant increase from previous forecasts [2] - OPEC+ and its competitors are increasing production while global demand recovery remains weak, exacerbating supply-demand imbalances [2] - Geopolitical tensions, particularly regarding Ukraine, may influence oil prices, with ongoing support expected from NATO and the EU [2] - Technical analysis indicates a bearish trend for oil, with support at $57.50 and resistance at $59.30 [2] Dollar Index - The U.S. Senate failed to pass a temporary funding bill, resulting in a government shutdown, which may impact the dollar's strength [3] - Market expectations for a European Central Bank rate cut are rising, potentially leading to a weaker euro [3] - Technical analysis shows a bearish trend for the dollar index, with support at 98.50 and resistance at 99.50 [4] Nasdaq Index - The Nasdaq index closed positively, currently consolidating within the 24000-25200 range, with a focus on potential new highs [5] - Technical analysis indicates support at 24550 and resistance at 24950 [5] Copper Market - The copper market closed negatively, facing resistance at $5.12, with current prices forming a symmetrical triangle pattern [6] - Technical analysis shows support at $4.90 and resistance at $5.05 [6] Market Overview - On October 15, gold prices reached a new high of $4199 [7]

Group 1 - The core point of the news is the increase in gold and platinum prices, with gold rising to 1230 CNY per gram and platinum to 631 CNY per gram on October 15, 2025, indicating a positive trend in precious metals [1][2] Group 2 - The gold price increased by 45 CNY per gram from the previous trading day, while the platinum price rose by 13 CNY per gram, reflecting a significant upward movement in both markets [1][2] Group 3 - The Federal Reserve's Collins highlighted that both short-term and long-term inflation indicators are relatively stable, but there are concerns regarding the labor market, which is in a peculiar balance state with low unemployment rates [3] - Collins suggested that a further rate cut of 25 basis points may be appropriate, indicating potential monetary policy adjustments that could impact economic conditions [3]

10月15日，A股主要股指集体收高。 上证指数涨超1%，重上3900点；创业板指涨超2%，热门科技权重全线反弹。电力设备及新能源、汽车、保险等板块涨幅居前。 Wind金融终端输入命令 WBUY（万得交易快线） 一次开户，基金市场一键链接 国家统计局发布最新物价数据显示， 9月PPI同比下降2.3%，降幅比上月收窄0.6个百分点；9月核心CPI同比上涨1.0%，为近19个月以来涨幅首次降至 1%。 此外，10月15日早上，人民币兑美元中间价报7.0995，上调26点， 为去年11月来首次升至7.10元上方 。离岸人民币兑美元一度直线拉升超100点。 广发证券认为，本次美国政府停摆对经济数据的影响可能更大，金融市场的不确定性加大，加速资金从美国向非美国家流动。美元指数及人民币汇率反应 较上一轮更迅速，美元贬值、人民币迅速升值。跨境回流对国内流动性的支撑预计持续到明年一季度，但年底可能面临购汇额度等因素短期扰动。 海外方面，当地时间10月14日，美联储主席鲍威尔暗示，可能在未来几个月停止收缩资产负债表，他承认货币市场出现了紧缩的"一些迹象"。 鲍威尔还暗示 ，即使政府停摆严重削弱了美联储对经济形势的掌握程度，但仍 ...

爱华中文平台行情 美联储主席鲍威尔周二在费城表示，尽管部分政府数据因停摆延迟，但现有数据显示，就业与通膨前景自9月以来变化不大。他重申，货 币政策将依据经济前景与风险平衡进行调整，而非遵循预设路径，并透露缩表可能在未来数月结束，美联储目标是确保金融体系流动性充足，以稳定短期利 率与货币市场。 与此同时，《华尔街日报》记者、被称为「美联储传声筒」的Nick Timiraos撰文指出，鲍威尔此番言论为本月再度降息铺平道路。鲍威尔强调，就业市场已 显疲软，但通膨仍具韧性，美联储正试图在「过快降息削弱抗通膨成效」与「过慢降息导致就业受损」之间寻求平衡。 1） 前一天总结 – 2025 年 10 月 14 日星期二 美国主要指数 随着中美贸易紧张局势重新出现并打压市场情绪，尤其是科技行业，市场走势喜忧参半。 波动性和收益率 VIX： 上升，反映出投资者对贸易风险的焦虑加剧。 标准普尔 500 指数： ▼ -0.2% 至 6,689 点（温和下跌，科技股压力） 道琼斯指数：▲ +0.4% 至 46,511 点 纳斯达克 100 指数： ▼ -0.55% 至 24,771.5 点跌幅更大（受大型科技股拖累） 拉塞尔 200 ...

鲍威尔称，根据美联储掌握的数据，自9月货币政策例会以来，美国的就业和通胀前景似乎没有太大变 化。经济活动的增长轨迹可能比预期略为稳健，但就业增长已大幅放缓，通胀率则仍然略高。就业形势 的下行风险上升，改变了美联储对风险平衡的评估。美联储在9月货币政策例会上采取更为中性的政策 立场是恰当的。 来源：中国商报 当地时间10月14日，美联储主席鲍威尔在宾夕法尼亚州费城举行的美国全国商业经济协会年会上发表讲 话称，虽然政府"停摆"削弱了美联储对经济形势的掌握程度，但是美国的就业和通胀前景"似乎没有太 大变化"。分析认为，这一表述暗示美联储将在本月再次降息。 鲍威尔重磅发声 这番讲话是鲍威尔自9月议息会议以来的首次公开发声。美联储上个月将联邦基金利率下调25个基点至 4%至4.25%，为年内首次降息，并暗示可能在年底前再降2次。根据芝商所FedWatch工具，市场目前预 期美联储在10月28日至29日会议上再次降息25个基点的概率接近100%。 "现在没有无风险的路径。"鲍威尔说，"如果行动太快，可能会让抗通胀的任务半途而废；但若行动太 慢，劳动力市场也可能遭到不必要的损害。" 在问答环节，鲍威尔称，由于美国政府"停摆 ...

中东地缘风险有所缓和，对黄金的影响可以忽略，这样的上涨几乎没有大的调整，5-7月份犹豫没上车的，后面只能硬着头皮追，越追金价越高，越高越 多人追，这就是索罗斯所谓的：反身性。 十年前，戴个大金链子别人觉得又LOW又土，如今戴着大金链子别人满眼的羡慕和尊重，时代变了，观念也要跟着变。 现在黄金的疯狂程度比一季度还要猛，今年一季度金价上涨超30%，不少多头还是有些犹豫，这一次完全不同，任何位置都觉得是低位，900多的黄金更 多的人往里冲。 另外，美联储主席鲍威尔凌晨讲话，重点是强调关于就业市场的担忧，对于未来降息的态度没有改变，即使短期CPI通胀有所反弹，美联储也不打算结束 降息，保持之前降息的方向不变。 一阵狂风吹过，吓的大伙一身冷汗，牛市多暴跌难延续。 昨晚中午，金价快速下跌100美元，从4180美元跌到了4090美元附近，人民币黄金瞬间掉了20元/克。 这一轮牛市，远超所有人认知，金价距离1000元越来越近，疯狂的程度历史罕见，所有人都在涌入黄金市场，想尽办法加仓做多。 美联储过去几次拖延降息的时间，主要担心贸易冲突引发的通胀反弹，随着关税冲突的落地，鲍威尔也不再强硬表示非要等通胀降到2%，而是选择小范 围 ...